‘…. he was feared far beyond his might and respected far beyond his support, both which in the end proved meager. … would play one official off of another, promoting sons above their fathers, pitting the members of too-powerful families or clans or unions against one another for resources, splitting so many allies and creating so many feuds and petty rivalries that it was nearly impossible that any two ……. could come together to ask one another if there might be another way.’
Max Fisher, associate editor – The Atlantic.
Mr. Fisher’s description fits most successful dictators. Admit it you thought he was talking about ours, didn’t’ you? It is all right, no need to worry; he was actually talking about the late Colonel Gaddafi. The Leader got away with just doing that for over forty years. Libya lost a generation. That is what failed leaders do to a country. After they are gone they leave a mess behind.
The drawing above is by cartoonist Ali Ferzat of Syria. Mr. Assad and his associates did not look kindly at his work. According to Mr. Fisher “On August 25, the 60-year-old Syrian political cartoonist Ali Ferzat was driving home from his office in Damascus when a car with tinted windows blocked the road. Men dragged Ferzat from his car, stuffed him in a van, beat him severely and broke both his hands in what they called “a warning” and dumped him on the side of the road.” Mr. Assad and his goons would like to kill Mr. Ferzat, thereby digging their grave. That is the logic of dictators.
Mr. Ferzat drew the above cartoon after his hands healed. What is going on in Syria is insanity, and that is putting it mildly. President Assad has witnessed the demise of Ben Ali, Mubarak, Gaddafi and Saleh but he is following the path that leads to the same dead end street. Why do you think? He is not stupid, and I doubt he is insane. May be a little insane ok? He probably thinks things are different in Syria. May be he believes he is more cunning and smarter than those buffoons. No matter what, he cannot stop this runaway train. He has no choice. It is a do or die situation. He is a prisoner of his own doing and the Syrian people are prisoners of their tolerance of evil for so long.
We Ethiopians are familiar with that state of affairs. We have been prisoners for a long time. It is true we have not been lucky with the leaders we seem to attract. Misfits and delusional describes them better. It is a good enough explanation for the debacle in our homeland. My question is how come the same dysfunctional behavior is replicated away from home?
It is fair to ask if we are running our affairs any better where ever we have settled. If our claim is that we have been cursed with bad leaders can we show any evidence that we are capable of building a harmonious society with out the interference of those we hold responsible for our failure? I believe it is a legitimate question that begs for answers from each one of us. I am interested in an answer not an excuse. Excuse is for losers. My interest is in looking for an explanation so we can search for a solution to fix the problem not to go on a fishing expedition to avoid responsibility or share the blame.
Look around you. We are in the hundreds of thousands that have left their home to construct a new reality. There is no denying that we are good at survival no matter how dire the circumstances. From the Jungles of Uganda all the way to Southern Africa, from Beirut to the Gulf, From Tuscany Coast to the frigid waters of Scandinavia and the mighty Continent of North America we Ethiopians are thriving in our new environment. Any mother would be proud of us! Please don’t get a big head now there is more.
That speaks about our individual achievements. My profound question to you my Diaspora cousin is how come we shine as individuals but fail as a community? Can you answer that for me? If you don’t mind I said answer not make up an excuse that will remove ‘you’ from the equation and dump the sins onto others. That is not good enough. That is what is called avoidance. It is a little difficult to imagine how each one of you is a perfect saint while all those ‘others’ are the ones causing the problem. It does not work like that. Believe me it is not that way.
If we are going to share the glory I believe we should be willing to share the blame too. The problem with our country is that there are so many that take credit for the past while screwing the present. I don’t mean to belittle the many achievements of the few. I am looking at the bigger picture. Voltaire wrote ‘No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible.’ You see what I mean. There wouldn’t be an avalanche without the individual snowflake.
Our anti social behavior is manifested in most aspects of our interactions. Be it Political, religious or simple Eder the slash and burn formula is our choice of resolving simple misunderstandings. Just check out your community if you are lucky or unlucky enough to live in a large size abesha population. There is a high possibility that the effort of individuals is spent in conflict and drama instead of cooperation and harmony. We are becoming very good in this use and discard philosophy. It used to be like that in the West before they became aware of the limitations of resources. Everything was manufactured to be used and thrown away.
You know how good we are at copying. Unfortunately we are not discriminating. Thus we picked up that concept and applied it to our country. Circumstances forced us to leave. Returning was not a safe option. That fact made the act of leaving something you love behind a normal situation. Now we have enhanced that to include organizations and associations. If we disagree we just create a small faction and leave. After spending so much time and resources in building a beautiful organization, Church etc. we have no qualms in leaving it behind hoping it would disintegrate and disappear. I have seen situations where the wreckers have no plans with what to replace it with. All available force goes into making sure nothing survives.
Why do you think that is so? I am not imaging this. I am sure we all love our country. We love each other. I know that because we seem to spend inordinate amount of time worrying about each other and our homeland. We have our own Churches and Mosques; we have our own restaurants, quick stores, coffee shops, our own on line community etc. For people that can’t live without each other we definitely exhibit a strange way to show our love and concern.
This formidable force commonly called the Diaspora is a paper tiger. The Diaspora is all bark no bite. In fact the Diaspora is such a negative and destructive force it needs to be overhauled. Such talk might offend you. You might be forced to get your guards up. That is the snowflake talking. It is like saying I see all this dysfunction around me but I am not responsible. Who me? I am the picture of love and tolerance. It is all those others that are the cause of all evil. Stop that now.
That is what Gaddafi said. Look what it got him. Denial is not a winning strategy. Self-reflection is what the situation demands. Admitting there is a problem is show of maturity. Holding oneself responsible and willing to change is one giant step forward. This total dysfunction is the sum total of the little things we do in our everyday interaction.
I believe we can start with respect for each other. Respect based not because of education, wealth or gosa but respect because we are each other’s keepers. There is no need to demonize others, no value in demeaning fellow country people, not a good idea searching for motive in every utterance and no winner in war. If we take care of the little things, the big things will fall into place.
This habit of screaming bloody murderer about the hapless Woyane is not taking us anywhere. The crimes of our tyrannical leaders will be the cause of their downfall. The Ethiopian people will take care of that. They are working on it everyday. It is us I worry about. If we are not capable of forming a harmonious society out here where we really do not have conflicting interest what makes you think we could succeed over there? Shouldn’t out here be the place where we learn this new concept of respect, tolerance, kindness and all other winning behavior?
That is the advantage of living in a free society. It gives individuals a choice. No one compels us to do this or that. We are free to choose. Thus when we split our Church, when we disrespect our leaders be it Community or Party we are making a choice. When we speak ill of each other and when we hurt each other with venomous language it is a choice we each make. When we invest in Woyane land, buy stolen property, turn our faces away when we see our people being abused we are making a choice. No need to look at your neighbor. You ladies and gentlemen have to answer for your own actions. What would it be soaring high like the eagle or scavenging like the vulture. The choice is yours but you must take full responsibility for it!
The International Criminal Court (ICC) is on the chase; and over the past few months, things have taken a slow turn for the worse for African dictators and human rights violators. They are finding out that they can’t run and they can’t hide.
Laurent “Cling-to-power-at-any-cost” Gbagbo of Cote d’Ivoire was snatched from his palatial hiding place in April 2011 after he defiantly refused to give up power to Alassane Ouattara in a presidential election certified by international observers in December 2010. In late November 2011, Gbagbo was quietly whisked away to the Hague from house arrest in Korhogo in the north of the country to face justice before the ICC on charges of crimes against humanity (murder, rape and other forms of sexual violence, persecution and other inhuman acts) that were allegedly committed during the post-election period. The U.N. estimates well over three thousand people died between December 2010 and April 2011 as a result of extrajudicial killings by supporters of Gbagbo and Ouattara. Gbagbo is the second former head of state to be tried by the ICC since it was set up in 2002.
Last week, a High Court judge in Kenya ordered Kenyan officials to arrest and deliver Sudan’s president Omar Al-Bashir to the ICC to face charges of crimes against humanity, war crimes and genocide if he ever set foot again in Kenya. The U.N. estimates well over 300,000 people have perished under Bashir’s regime. Bashir unsuccessfully claimed immunity from prosecution as a sitting head of state. Nearly all of the other unindicted African dictators have chimed in to severely criticize the ICC and demand suspension of Bashir’s arrest warrant. Five other suspects are also sought on ICC warrants in the Sudan including Ahmed Haroun, a lawyer and minister of humanitarian affairs, Ali Kushayb, a former senior Janjaweed (local militiamen allied with the Sudanese regime against Darfur rebels), Bahr Idriss Abu Garda, a rebel leader and two others.
In another development in Kenya last week, Uhuru Kenyatta, finance minister and son of Kenya’s famed independence leader Jomo Kenyatta, resigned following an ICC ruling that he will face trial for crimes against humanity in connection with the communal post-election violence between supporters of presidential candidates Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki in 2008. The U.N. estimates some 1,200 people died in weeks of unrest between December 2007 and February 2008 and 600,000 people were forcibly displaced. Cabinet secretary Francis Muthaura, a close ally of president Mwai Kibaki, former Education Minister William Ruto and radio announcer Joshua arap Sang face similar charges.
The ICC had also issued arrest warrants for Moammar Gaddafi, his son Saif al-Islam and Libyan intelligence chief Abdullah al-Senussi on charges of crimes against humanity. Last week, Libya’s Justice Minster announced that Libya, and not the ICC, will be trying Saif al-Islam. Al-Senoussi remains a fugitive from justice.
Last but not forgotten is former Liberian president Charles Taylor who went on trial on charges of crimes against humanity and war crimes in The Hague before the Special Court for Sierra Leone. He is awaiting a verdict after a nearly three and half year trial.
The ICC presently has open investigations against individuals in various countries including Uganda, DR Congo, Central African Republic, Darfur and Cote d’Ivoire. The rogue’s gallery of suspects sought in ICC issued arrest warrants for crimes against humanity and war crimes include five senior leaders of the “Lord’s Resistance Army” in Uganda including the notorious Joseph Kony and his deputy Vincent Otti and three other top commanders. In the DR Congo various rebel and militia leaders and Congolese military officers and politicians including Thomas Lubanga Dyilo, Jean-Pierre Bemba Gombo, Bosco Ntaganda, Mathieu Ngudjolo Chui and two others are targets of ICC investigation.
No ICC, No Justice?
The ICC, established in 2002, is an institution with a lot of legal and political limitations in its investigative and prosecutorial duties. For instance, it has authority over “crimes against humanity” only if the acts were “committed as part of a widespread or systematic attack directed against any civilian population, with knowledge of the attack.” The crimes must have been “extensively or rationally orchestrated” by the perpetrators. The ICC can investigate cases only where the accused is a national of a state party that has accepted ICC jurisdiction and the alleged crime took place on the territory of a state party, or if a “situation” is referred by the Security council. Most importantly, it can exercise its jurisdiction only when national courts are unwilling or unable to investigate or prosecute such crimes.
The ICC has a very difficult job to do in investigating and chasing the world’s worst human rights violations across the planet. Despite its recent establishment, obstacles and limitations, it has a respectable record. As of September 2010, the Office of the ICC Prosecutor had received 8,874 “communications” about alleged human rights violations. After an initial review, it declined to proceed with 4,002 of them concluding that they are “manifestly outside the jurisdiction of the Court”. To date, the Court has opened investigations in seven African countries. Three investigations began following referral by state parties, the UN Security Council referred two more (Darfur and Libya) and two were begun proprio motu (“ICC prosecutor began on his own initiative”). To date, the ICC has charged 27 people and issued arrest warrants for 18 more. Five individuals are in various stages of trial and eight remain at large as fugitives. Two individuals died before their trials concluded and charges were dismissed against four.
The one unsettled question is what happens to those individuals who commit crimes against humanity, war crimes and genocide in official or unofficial capacity but cannot be prosecuted because they are not part of the regime of the Rome Statute which established the ICC. For instance, Ethiopia has not ratified or accepted the Rome Statute and technically does not come under ICC jurisdiction. Does that mean the individuals who perpetrated crimes against humanity and war crimes in that country will never be held accountable under any international system of criminal justice?
The evidence of crimes against humanity and war crimes in Ethiopia is fully documented, substantial and overwhelming. An official Inquiry Commission report in 2006 documented the extrajudicial killing of at least 193 persons, wounding of 763 others and arbitrary imprisonment of nearly 30,000 persons in the post-2005 election period in that country. There are at least 237 individuals identified and implicated in these crimes. In December 2003, in Gambella, Ethiopia, 424 individuals died in extrajudicial killings by security forces. In the Ogaden, reprisal “executions of 150 individuals” and 37 others were documented by Human Rights Watch in 2008 which charged:
Ethiopian military personnel who ordered or participated in attacks on civilians should be held responsible for war crimes. Senior military and civilian officials who knew or should have known of such crimes but took no action may be criminally liable as a matter of command responsibility. The widespread and apparently systematic nature of the attacks on villages throughout Somali Region is strong evidence that the killings, torture, rape, and forced displacement are also crimes against humanity for which the Ethiopian government bears ultimate responsibility.
Torture and ill-treatment have been used by Ethiopia’s police, military, and other members of the security forces to punish a spectrum of perceived dissenters, including university students, members of the political opposition, and alleged supporters of insurgent groups, as well as alleged terrorist suspects. Human Rights Watch has documented incidents of torture and ill-treatment by Ethiopian security forces in a range of settings. The frequency, ubiquity, and patterns of abuse by agents of the central and state governments demonstrate systematic mistreatment involving commanding officers, not random activity by rogue soldiers and police officers. In several cases documented by Human Rights Watch, military commanders participated personally in torture.
Universal Jurisdiction
The are obvious limits to the globalization of criminal justice under the ICC regime. But does that mean human rights violators who are not subject to ICC jurisdiction get away with murder, torture, war crimes and genocide? Maybe not.
There is an encouraging trend globally that more and more national courts are willing to operate under the doctrine of universal jurisdiction to prosecute gross human rights violators for atrocities committed outside their countries. Simply stated, if someone who committed crimes against humanity, war crimes or genocide is found in another country where the crimes were not committed, that country makes it its obligation to bring the perpetrator to justice using its own courts. For instance, Article 5 of the United Nations Convention Against Torture and Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment and Punishment provides that each State shall “take such measures as may be necessary to establish its jurisdiction over such offences in cases where the alleged offender is present in any territory under its jurisdiction and it does not extradite him.”
Universal jurisdiction has been exercised in a number of high profile cases. A Spanish judge charged former Chilean president Augusto Pinochet in 1998 for crimes against humanity committed in Chile. After years of appeal and delays, Pinochet died in 2006 without facing justice. A Belgian court in 2001 convicted the killers of two Rwandan nuns for war crimes during the 1994 Rwandan genocide. A Belgian court in 2005 indicted the former president of Chad, Hissène Habré, for crimes against humanity, torture, war crimes and other human rights violations committed during his presidency in Chad. Two weeks ago, a Senegalese court blocked the extradition of the Chadian dictator because Belgium failed to file the “original arrest warrant and other papers”. A German court has convicted a former leader of a paramilitary Serb group for acts of genocide committed in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1997. Over the past several decades, more than 15 countries have exercised universal jurisdiction in investigations or prosecutions of persons suspected of crimes under international law including Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, the UK and the United States of America.
There are other non-criminal legal remedies as well. For instance, the Human Rights Violators and War Crimes Unit (HRVWCU) in the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) National Security Investigations Division conducts investigations to prevent foreign war crimes suspects, persecutors and human rights abusers from entering the United States. It also identifies, prosecutes and deports such offenders who have entered the U.S. Over the past 8 years, ICE has arrested more than 200 individuals for human rights-related violations under various criminal and/or immigration statutes and deported more than 400 known or suspected human rights violators from the United States. Currently, ICE is pursuing more than 1,900 leads and removal cases involving suspected human rights violators from nearly 95 different countries. HRVWCU receives anonymous tips and information from those who report suspected war criminals and human rights violators residing in the U.S. Individuals seeking to report suspected human rights violators may contact the HRV unit at [email protected]
Justice Delayed is Not Justice Denied, Just Delayed
Justice delayed is just delayed. The victims of former Chilean dictator Gen. Augusto Pinochet might have thought justice delayed is justice denied. So may have thought the victims of Argentina’s Dirty War. The facts are very encouraging. Since December 2006, Chilean prosecutors and judges have convicted hundreds of former military personnel in the Pinochet regime accused of committing grave human rights violations. As of July 2008, 482 former military personnel and civilian collaborators were facing charges for a variety of offenses classified under crimes against humanity. Among these, 256 had been convicted, of whom 83 had had their convictions confirmed on appeal. In the Argentine Dirty War (the generals’ war against thousands of activists, militants, trade unionists, students, journalists and others), the mighty generals have been held to account. Many of the top military officers involved including Leopoldo Galtieri, general and President of Argentina, Jorge Rafael Videla, former senior Army commander and de facto President and other lesser known top officers were tried and sentenced to life imprisonment or long prison terms. Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s dictator for over three decades, his sons, interior minsiter and others are today facing justice in an Egyptian court. Syria’s Bashar al-Assad of Syria and Ali Saleh of Yemen will no doubt face justice in Syria, Yemen or elsewhere. Justice will also arrive like a slow, chugging and delayed train for those who have committed crimes against humanity and war crimes in Ethiopia.
Previous commentaries by the author are available at: www.huffingtonpost.com/alemayehu-g-mariam/ and http://open.salon.com/blog/almariam/
Did you see what was coming out of North Korea this week? Someone referred to it as the ‘world’s largest display of uncontrollable grief.’ Kim Jung un ‘the Brilliant Comrade’ succeeded his father Kim Jung il ‘the Dear Leader’ who took over from his Grand Father the ‘Great Leader.’ The Korean people are celebrating sixty years under the stewardship of the Kim family? Do you wonder why? How is that possible in this day and age that one family can control a whole nation?
The Korean people are no different than the rest of humanity. There is no outward sign that sets them apart from the rest of us except the system they live under. That is the key to their dilemma. The Kim family and the system they perpetuate is the cause of all this freaky display being beamed out.
The Korean people are kept in ignorance by design. The Kim family motto is ‘Military first.’ It is not because North Koreans have enemies ready to conquer them. In fact North Korea have no enemies other than the Kim family and those aligned with them. The military ‘s mission is to bully, frighten and intimidate the Korean people into submission. The people are the enemy.
There is no independent Television broadcaster, no independent Radio station, no independent Newspaper and no independent Internet provider in the Kingdom of Korea. The Kim family and friends control all of the communications media. They figure that ignorant people are easier to control. You can’t argue with sixty years of success. I was looking and marveling at this phenomenon when I heard the news that Ato Bereket has written a book. You know me I was delirious with joy with the news. I have found my own Kim in my backyard. For some reason Kim of Korea and Meles of Ethiopia converged.
Mind you Ato Bereket have no compelling reason to stick his neck out and display his normal unfamiliarity with rational thought process and his utter contempt for facts and put all that down on paper for all to see. The only explanation I have is this disease of contempt for truth, self-aggrandizement, ego trip and simple garden-variety madness.
I have not read the book yet. To tell you the truth, I have no intention of reading it either. Judging from the inaugural ceremony when the book was made public I figured reading is not a requirement to talk or write about it. I am not going against convention here and read the damn book. My sincere hope is Ato Bereket himself has read the book.
The setting for the unveiling (Addis Sheraton, Lalibela Room) more than made up for the pedestrian quality of the content. It is reported that ‘who is who’ of the Ruling Party was present. The most esteemed benefactor of our motherland, Dr. Sheik Al Amoudi was there. The report does not say if Ato Meles was present or was watching from a remote site. I know from sources that videotaping is standard procedure. The First lady was not present either. I assume they were watching from their bunker.
The book is titled ‘A tale of the two elections.’ The dilemma faced by librarians all over is which category to file the book under. Fact or fiction is a valid question. It purports to be based on facts but from the reviews I get the feeling there is no research and data to support the thesis presented but rather it is a matter of taking the authors assertion as facts. Simple faith is what is called for.
Dr. Sheik Al Amoudi paid for the printing that was done in Kenya for quality purpose. According to the Dr. Sheik who confessed that he has not read the book it is a work of such importance that he recommended it as a ‘must reading’ for our youth. Judging by the glossy cover, beautiful fonts and pretty soft paper its function, as a doorstop will be invaluable. I know I am hating but deservingly.
Next to give his lofty recommendation was none other than Ato Demeke Mekonen, Minster of Education. Unfortunately he has not read the book either but it did not stop him from offering his praise and opinion. In fact he went a step further and added stuff that was not even in the book. Ato Demeke was glad and praised the author for dedicating the book to his comrades from the liberation movement when the reality is that Ato Bereket dedicated his book to his brother. Needless to say the Minster is in favor of adapting it as a textbook for our children.
I knew my friends at Aiga would add their share of cheerleading to this work of historic proportion. I am grateful to Ato Reta Sisay for his blind review. No adjective was spared in his haste to pile the accolades. He boldly compares and equates the book to the work of the celebrated English author Charles Dickens. I have no idea how and why. The only reason why Charles Dickens would be mentioned can only be due to the similarity of the title because the two works have nothing in common what so ever. The Englishman’s book is a work of fiction while Ato Bereket’s book purports to be a historical analysis of what happened yesterday in front of all of us. Ato Reta got carried away.
In my opinion the best un read review is done by none other than Ben of Ethiopia First. He wanted to stay true to the theme of fiction and continued to weave his own tale. When the book was unveiled in Addis, Ben said he was visiting the Great Wall of China. We are grateful he stopped his tourist activity and stayed in his room to write his Blog. How he got hold of the book in China is not clear and to top it all he was writing a testimonial before he even finished reading the book. He said so himself. Ben, Ben, Ben, how many times have you been told to not make shit up!
I found the review written by an individual named Daniel Berhane to be mildly interesting. He seems to be a Party functionary and goes out of his way to show Ato Bereket in a good light despite his failings as the ‘main strategist’ for the 2005 elections. Daniel seems to take advantage of his ethnic affiliation and gives us inside information regarding the Prime Minster’s plan to be called Doctor and the many fiction he has written and are awaiting publication. Ato Daniel states that there was no need for Ato Meles to review the work since Bereket is a premier ‘spin doctor’ in his own right. It is a little confusing when Bereket claims that Ato Meles is the busiest person in the service of his country and Ato Daniel asserts that the PM is busy studying for his PHD. We got a part time student and Prime Minster, and a part time spin-doctor and historian author.
May be I should also mention the write up by Addis Fortune newspaper ‘gossip’ columnist. We are after all in Ethiopia where a few papers are allowed to function pretending all is honky dory and normal while some are hounded out of existence. Our Columnist took a different take on the whole issue. The concern was not what was in the book but rather the perception. It boldly claims the ‘recently released book, the launch of which, at Sheraton Addis, caused so much furor among members of the public.’ Over the top statement considering ‘members of the public’ are eighty million of which seventy nine million nine hundred thousand are not aware of the book nor do they give a damn. Furthermore the Columnist was ticked off and wrote ‘there has been a passionate disapproval by many after seeing a well-heeled businessman speak of a senior government official in a manner that was distasteful, if not repulsive.’ I am sure this disapproval was not followed by not eating the lavish dinner, not drinking the free booze and not lining up to buy an autographed copy. A room full of spineless sycophants is what it looks like. A little harsh but you know what I mean.
The following paragraph from the Fortune article I would like to leave it intact and you the reader be the judge of this madness:
‘Equally, he has been criticised for reaching out to a businessman while his own party, the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM), could have paid for the printing of the book. He could have received the services of Mega Printing, a subsidiary of the Endowment Fund for the Rehabilitation of Tigray (EFFORT), a party-affiliated company, others criticised.’ I have nothing to add to this crap.
It will be considered rude to finish without saying something about our dear friend, newly minted author and Head of Government Communications Minster good old Bereket Semeon. I will start from the beginning and rely on Ato Tesfaye Gebreab’s first hand description of the times and events. I have no reason to doubt Ato Tesfaye’s meticulous research and incredible memory. We are lucky.
Ato Bereket was born in Gondar to Aboy Gebrehiwot and Weizero Werknesh. He was named Mebrehatu Gebrehiwot. He came of age when our country was in turmoil. Like the youth of his time he joined the struggle to topple the Military regime or Derg. He has an older brother named Kasahune and the book is dedicated to him. Kasahune was born in the province of Eritrea and grew up in Gondar. He joined the EPRP to liberate his country. In my opinion history will show EPRP to be the first modern multi national movement that understood the richness, diversity and strength of the new Ethiopia to be built. Ato Mebrehatu died in a battle between EPRP (EPRF) militia and TPLF army.
History will also show TPLF was established, formed and founded to liberate the province of Tigrai. George Orwell wrote ‘to see what is in front of one’s nose needs a constant struggle.’ The folks of TPLF have the whole of Ethiopia under their nose but they choose to liberate a small sliver of land. This myopic vision never left our fearless leaders.
Back to our tale, upon joining TPLF Mebrehatu changed his name to Bereket. This was a common practice at the time but Mebrehatu went a step further and changed his fathers name too. He wanted a complete transformation I guess. He choose the name of an EPRP combatant from Eritrea that has mysteriously disappeared. It was normal to assume that he might have been killed in battle. It is good to know that the real Ato Bereket Semeone is still alive and was even the Ambassador to France representing the State of Eritrea. Not even Hollywood can dream of such a tale.
Ato Bereket/Mebrehatu did not bother to go into these matters. His book is about the 2005 election and the 2010 Coronation. It is very strange that TPLF folks are trying hard to revise history right under our nose. They have this guilt feeling if at all possible mixed with real fear and are constantly working hard to make us believe they were the victims. I have this strange notion this fiction is authored by none other than Ato Meles/Legesse Zenawi. I consider myself a skilled observer of The TPLF in general and the Politburo in particular. In fact I specialize on three and half individuals as my object of interest.
Based on extensive review of the reviews I have concluded Ato Meles to be the author. The tone and language is vintage Meles. The length (over 300 pages) is standard Meles diatribe and the evil ways he attacks perceived opponents is familiar to us. The book was written to whitewash the crimes of 2005 settle scores with ‘enemies’ and gauge the reception from the one percent. The 99 percent are not part of the equation. I believe Ato Bereket is not wired to come up with such absurd tale and commit it to paper. It requires someone with a lot of time in his hands and the expertise to think smart and act damn. It is a worthy digression from the current malaise. But it is temporary. The economy is stuck, the remittances are still anemic, the constant jabbering of “Spring” is unnerving and the Gadaffi picture is difficult to shake. Most of all I truly enjoy their paranoia regarding Dr. Berhanu. They imprisoned him again and again, they exiled him and they still obsess about him. The more you hate him the more I love him. Bring it baby let us have some more fiction.
I have a few suggestions to our authors. It is easy to talk trash when you are the only one allowed to speak. I will fight for your right to write any book you want but please let others tell their side of the story too. You see your denial of the same rights to others cheapens your work. No one will believe it. What is the point of writing it if it doesn’t shed some light? You might think forcing schools, work places and associations to buy it might give you boasting rights but what is the point if everyone knew it is fake. It will be like your Tehadso project. You call a meeting of the faithful you give them money to donate and you shout how successful it was. This Mamo Kilo moment is not a wining strategy. I will read Ato Bereket’s fiction when he allows others to write their version of reality.
Let Eskinder out of prison, he will show you how to write. Let Reiyot Alemu and Zerihune Gegziabeher out your dungeon and they will show you how to publish using their sweat. Let Andualem Arage out of his confinement and he will teach you how to organize without using force and bribery. This trash publishing business using welfare is not the way of the Ethiopia we envision. I suggest Ato Bereket read his book if nothing else to know what is being said in his name.
In February 2011, at the onset of the Libyan Revolution, Moamar Gadhaffi trumpeted to the world, “They love me. All my people with me, they love me. They will die to protect me, my people.” He called the rebels fighting to oust him from power “rats and cockroaches”. He believed it was his birthright to rule Libya as “king of kings” and remained in total denial of his own doom until the bitter end in a sewer tunnel. In the end, in an ironic twist of fate, Gadhaffi was served poetic justice. He was trapped like a sewer rat and smashed like a cockroach as he begged for mercy: “Don’t shoot me!”
The man who had played God in Libya for 42 years died a wimpy thug. The man with the absolute power to decide who shall live and who shall die was shot down like a rabid dog in the street by a nameless rebel. The man who had tortured and abused so many thousands of his people in secret prisons and dungeons was himself tortured and abused with unspeakable inhumanity broadcast for the world to see. The man who slaughtered thousands of his people ended up in the meat locker of a slaughterhouse where his victims gloated over his bloodied and half-naked body discarded on a filthy mattress like big game hunters inspecting their kill on an African safari. The man with the golden gun died from a lead bullet. The man-turned-monster who once called himself “brother leader,” “guide of the revolution,” “king of kings,” “Great Leader,” and “keeper of Arab nationalism” was escorted to his unmarked grave in the featureless desert by a swarm of hungry maggot-bearing flies. Only one question remained: Is it possible for Gandhi’s warning about dictators to have momentarily flashed before Gadhaffi’s eyes or echoed in his ears as he prepared to meet his Maker: “I remember that all through history the ways of truth and love have always won. There have been tyrants, and murderers, and for a time they can seem invincible, but in the end they always fall. Think of it–always.”
Gadhafi boasted he will die a hero and a martyr, but died a hated villain and a coward. But the manner of his death left an ugly blotch on the glorious record of the Libyan Revolution. Gadhaffi’s young captors, unable to contain their pent up rage, treated him with such unspeakably inhumanity that their actions spoke very poorly for all of humanity. His execution in the street was an ugly public testament to man’s inhumanity to man. Even the most wicked and depraved dictator is entitled to basic human dignity. But in the euphoria of the moment, Libyans erupted with celebration at the news Gadhaffi’s dehumanization and death. With muted jubilation and a sigh of relief, acting Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril declared: “We have been waiting for this moment for a long time.” President Obama followed, “This marks the end of a long and painful chapter for Libya.”
Gadhaffi was the ultimate personification of the adage, “power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” Over four decades, he became convinced that he was a god and untouchable by any man or law. He became an egomaniac, a megalomaniac, and a monomaniac. Gadhaffi and members of his family believed that they had a divine right to own Libya and Libyans as their personal property. His son Saif al-Islam threatened to dismember the country and plunge it into a civil war that “will last for 30 or 40 years” if anyone tries to oust his family. The young thug promised a bloodbath: “We will fight to the last minute, until the last bullet. I will fight until the last drop of my blood. We have a Plan A which is to live and die in Libya. Plan B which is to live and die in Libya…” Gadhaffi refused to resign and leave the country peacefully. He would not listen to reason and defiantly declared he would never negotiate, mediate, compromise or surrender. He urged his supporters to fight to the last man and watched Libya burn in a civil war holed up in the sewer. As many as thirty thousand Libyans are estimated to have died as a result of Gadhaffi’s futile attempt to cling to power.
The African People Do Not Love Their Dictators
They say love is blind. That is especially true for dictators. Dictators are so blind that they believe the people love them. Long before Gadhaffi announced to the world “my people love me”, his brother-dictator Saddam Hussien of Iraq told the interrogators who snatched him out his spider hole, “The Iraqi people will always love me.” He even authored a romantic novel and spoke through his main character (king): “I’m a great leader. You must obey me. Not only that, you must love me.”
Long before Saddam, the Italian Fascist leader Benito Mussolini pontificated, “With every beat of my heart, I give service to the Italian people. I feel that all Italians understand and love me.” Idi Amin of Uganda was less sentimental: “The people should love their leader!”; and if they don’t he had his own tough love methods to get the job done. Mobutu Sese Seko of Zaire would often chuckle and tell foreign correspondents that not only do his people love him, they want him to stay in power because the “people need me.” Mengistu Hailemariam believed that he ruled with an iron fist out of patriotic duty and love of country. No doubt he loved Ethiopia to death, and proved it for seventeen years by killing thousands of its citizens wantonly. Last May, in a victory speech, Meles Zenawi said he won the election by 99.6 percent because the Ethiopian people love his party and implicitly himself as the party leader. He said the people “consider themselves and the EPRDF [Zenawi’s party] as two sides of a coin” and “nothing can ever shake their unwavering support for our organization.” He returned the love by congratulating them for their “high sense of judgment and fairness” and for “giv[ing] us the mandate through your votes.”
African dictators are so tone-deaf that they just don’t get the message no matter how many times it is repeated to them. Perhaps they might understand if told in sign language: T-H-E P-E-O-P-L-E D-O-N-’T L-O-V-E Y-O-U! In fact, they loathe you. It is a raw and visceral feeling that is manifest in the eyes, thoughts and words of the people. African dictators love having absolute power and boundless privilege. They worship at the altar of money. They love themselves and no one else because they are narcissistic. Every day they look into the ghostly mirror in their minds seeking reassurance: “Mirror, mirror!! Who is the smartest, cleverest, boldest, cruelest, wickedest, trickiest, slickest, shrewdest, quickest, savviest, cunningest… of them all? The answer is always the same.
African dictators are all self-delusional and spend most of their time on Planet Denial. In the face of total repudiation by their people, they invent their own mythology of self-grandeur. They reassure themselves that even if the people don’t love them, “history will one day vindicate me”. To avoid facing the truth, they categorically claim that they have “never killed even a fly and all the crimes I’m accused of are all lies perpetrated by my enemies.” They justify their cruelty by making the excuse that “my country is better off under me” than the previous regime. They brag about their accomplishments “successfully managing the transition from military dictatorship to an emerging democracy” and put themselves out as messiahs who “rekindle hope through a renaissance” and “chart a course of optimism” on a “trajectory of fast economic growth.” African dictators are as loveable as an African scorpion.
Perhaps it is a bit of an overstatement to say African dictators do not love their people. They do. They love to kill them; they love to jail them and torture them. They love to intimidate them, and most of all they love to crush them like cockroaches. How they love to rob, steal and cheat them! They thrive on the blood, sweat and tears of their people. African dictators love their people in much the same way as vampires love people. They love the sound of their own voices which resonate with lies, echo with deceit and jangle with hate: Those who oppose them are “rats and cockroaches” and “terrorists and insurrectionists”.
Did Gadhaffi Cheat the Libyan People in Death as He Did in Life?
It was jarring, confusing and troubling to hear acting Libyan Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril declare on the confirmation of Gadhaffi’s death that “We have been waiting for this moment for a long time.” I wish he had said, “The day we have been waiting for was the day Gadhaffi is brought to the bar of justice.” I wish the rebel fighter who shot Gadhafi in the face would have said the same thing that young fighter who captured the dictator Laurent Gbagbo of Cote d’Ivoire said a few months ago. “We attacked and forced in a part of the bunker. Gbagbo was there with his wife and his son. He was slapped by a soldier, but was not otherwise hurt.”
The moment to wait for would have been that precious moment when Moamar Muhammad Abu Minyar al-Gaddafi stood in the dock in a Libyan court or at the International Criminal Court in the Hague listening to the long list of criminal charges as his victims paraded in one by one wagging an accusatory finger at him. That would have been a historic moment worth waiting for no matter how long it took.
Gadhaffi is one of the top ten worst human rights abusers and criminals of the post-World War II era. I personally believe he is the apotheosis of evil. Regardless, I fully respect his human rights, including his right to a presumption of innocence and unabashedly defend his basic human right to proof of guilt beyond a reasonable doubt in a court of law based exclusively on legally admissible evidence. This I believe to be the true meaning of human rights. Even monsters walking amongst us in human skin are entitled to due process (fair trial) and must be protected from lynching or street, mob or vigilante justice. The line that separates the rule of law from the rule of one man or the rule of the mob is a mighty slender one; and the rule of law must be defended at all costs against those who seek to breach it. It is easy to defend the human rights of Eman al-Obeidy, the courageous Libyan woman who was gang-raped by Gadhaffi’s thugs or Gadhaffi’s revenge killing victims. But it is infinitely more difficult to stand up for monsters like Gadhaffi; but the ironic truth is that the brand of human rights that fully protects Eman al-Obeidy also protects fully the monster once known as Moamar Muhammad Abu Minyar al-Gaddafi.
But I am afraid Gadhaffi in his death, as in his lifetime, got away with murder and torture and all sorts of crimes against humanity. He cheated al-Obeidy and the Libyan people out of justice. He cheated them out of the TRUTH. Now, al-Obeidy will never get the chance to confront Gadhaffi in a court of law, wag her delicate fingers at him as her tears roll down her cheeks and scream with all her might, “Gadhaffi! I accuse of rape and torture!” Her tears which testified before the court of world opinion and seared the conscience of all humanity will never get the chance to testify against Gadhaffi in a court of law and have him held accountable.
The truth is now buried with Gadhafi’s corpse and lost forever in the featureless sand dunes of the Sahara. His humiliation will give no satisfaction to al-Obeidy or the thousands of other innocent victims in Libya or those he blew up on Pan Am flight 103. The ghoulish public display of his corpse as a trophy game animal and all the gloating that went with it might give momentary satisfaction to some but it will never quench Libyans’ thirst for justice that could have come only from bringing Gadhaffi to trial. By taking the truth to his grave, Gadhaffi had the last laugh. He took his last revenge on the Libyan people for he knew that there could be no reconciliation in Libya without the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth laid bare before the people. It is too bad that Gadhaffi was given the easy way out!
The End of African Dictators
Winston Churchill said, “Dictators ride to and fro upon tigers which they dare not dismount. And the tigers are getting hungry.” President John Kennedy cautioned us to “remember that, in the past, those who foolishly sought power by riding the back of the tiger ended up inside.” He warned the “new states” liberated from colonialism that “Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.”
The people of Africa are beating the drums of change and democracy and encircling the mud walls of African dictatorships. The die is now cast and African dictators will have to make a choice. The smart ones will read the writing on the wall and beat feet to enjoy their stolen loot in comfort and luxury in the sanctuary of well-known “dictatordoms”. Ben Ali and Mengustu are doing just that now as did Idi Amin before them. The stubborn ones will stick around and face the scales of justice. Mubarak is doing that now as did Jean-Bedel Bokassa, the self-proclaimed Emperor of the Central African Republic, before him. The self-delusional ones like Gadhaffi and Laurent Gbagbo of Cote d’Ivoire and Samuel Doe of Liberia before them will cause a civil war to cling to power only to find themselves at the mercy of their ferocious and vengeance-thirsty adversaries. The rest will try to hide and hope their crimes will not catch up with them. Like Robert Mugabe and Omar al-Bashir, they will always be looking over their shoulders for the long arm of international law or the sharp tiger claws of the people that will one day surely hook them. African dictators who make peaceful change impossible will make vigilante justice possible as they peek straight through the barrel of a gun whimpering, “Don’t shoot me! Please don’t shoot me!” African dictators, there is a better way. Show your people some love. LEAVE THEM!
East Europe suffered under Soviet domination for over fifty years. While West Europe was marching forward, East Europe was engulfed in darkness and hopelessness. The Arabs with all their vast population and abundant natural resources stumbled around for so long they were considered people of no consequences. The East Europeans emerged from their forced slavery and are now trying to rebuild a new reality. The Arabs are showing signs of life. From the shores of the Atlantic all the way to the Indian Ocean Arab awakening is the talk of the planet.
As usual Africa is acting dead. The ‘Dark Continent’ as they aptly named us is still in slumber mode. It still is the playground of the buffoon, the mentally unstable, the psychopath and the pure evil. The Mugabe’s, Museveni’s, Bashir’s, Zenawi’s, Afeweki’s are the faces of Africa. They have been around so long that it is difficult to remember what came before their rude appearance. We Ethiopians have contributed our fair share to this collective madness. We are not innocent bystanders but rather one of the stars of this tragic show. Nobody thought we would sink this low in such a short time. Here we are at the bottom of the barrel.
Do you want me to remind you of the times the name Ethiopia evoked pride and hope? Believe me it is true. Our country is so old and our people so wise that we even have a mention in the Bible. I know it is difficult to top that but I will humbly mention our earthly accomplishments too. The Axumite Kingdom is considered one of the four Great powers along with Persia, Rome and China around 4th century BC. We are the only country in Africa not to be colonized by the Europeans. We were equal founders in the establishment of the League of Nations the forerunner to the current United Nations. Our Emperor played a key role in establishing the Organization of Africa Unity with Addis Ababa as its Headquarters. There was a time when Emperor HaileSelassie hosted warring factions in our capital and he was listened to.
That is why I believe our ancient land will usher in the people’s uprising that is shaking our neighborhood into Black Africa. We are ripe and ready. We are overdue. I know it. Deep inside you know it too. The Ethiopian dictatorship understands the volatility of the situation. At this moment it is operating on crisis mode. The regime is experimenting with so many responses it is actually possible the right hand does not know what the left is doing. That is the problem with occupiers. They end up being strangers in their own country. They saw themselves differently. They felt they were entitled. They felt safe inside the false wall they built. Looks like the chicken are coming home to roost. How pathetic!
It is becoming obvious the situation in Ethiopia shows all the signs of readiness for upheaval. It has reached what in physics is known as ‘critical mass.’ In politics the current situation has all what is needed to force a new reality to take place. Be it positive or negative something is bound to happen and that is independent of any ones wish.
The famine/hunger/ food shortage whatever it is called is the main catalyst. The Ethiopian government does not have enough foreign currency to buy food for its people. The wrong polices of the last twenty years have not been able to solve this lingering problem. Due to the worsening situation in Somalia food donor’s attention is not focused on our country. The regime is in no position to admit famine has arrived. It will be suicidal. Unfortunately it cannot be hidden or ignored. The ferenjis are beginning to ring the alarm bells but very cautiously. They do not want to upset their ‘anti-terrorist’ partner. Like it or not hungry people soon turn to angry people. Mobs have been known to do strange things when outraged. It is critical we find a way to channel this raw anger into positive direction for the sake of all of us.
The second condition feeding our critical mass political situation is the general melt down of the economy. Officially inflationist 40.6% for what it is worth. You know the actual figure is close to double that. This New Year the price of basic goods and necessities was beyond even professional citizen’s standard. Cow/Bull was eleven thousand Bir, Sheep fifteen hundred, Chicken one hundred twenty five, Teff one thousand five hundred, red onion six Bir per kilo, garlic one hundred Bir per kilo, butter one hundred twenty five per kilo, berbere sixty per kilo and so forth. Most of our people are going to bed hungry. The children and the elderly suffer the most. Even those who have jobs cannot afford to feed their family.
The third ingredient is unemployment. There is no private sector so to speak of in Ethiopia. The government is the largest employer in the country. That is done for control. Realistically it is not a good or efficient economic model. When you consider the government is broke thus unable to meet the needs of a growing population it fair to say it is sitting on a time bomb. Idleness breeds’ anti-social behavior. The regime tried using drugs like Kat and televised sports to divert but it can only go so far.
The fourth factor is the dwindling remittances and Diaspora investment. Remittances have definitely shown dramatic decrease due to the international economic situation. The Middle East is in turmoil and the West is closing its doors to outsiders. The double digit ‘growth’ was not due to increase in economic production but due to remittances from the Diaspora and aid money from the ferenjis. It was an illusion built on sand. All those condominiums and shopping centers are colossal waste. When the artificially inflated real estate prices plummet the door is not wide enough for those that want to exit.
The fifth catalyst will be the situation in the North Africa, The Middle East, and the general mood of the Western enablers. The Arab Spring is known to all in Ethiopia. They are familiar with this type of situation. No matter how hard the regime tries to pretend there is nothing odd going on, the eyes and ears of our people are following the drama intently. Although our information system is carefully managed by the TPLF blanket they covered our country with, it is full of holes. News gets in. The Western enablers are confused. Their ‘smart’ intelligence system did not even see the Arab Spring train pulling into the station. Their banana republic puddles are falling one after another. Mubarak’s fall was spectacular. Now they are cautious showing any kind of fondness to the rest of their puppies. Swim or sink the dogs have entered uncharted waters. One or two will survive but most will be history. Meles is trying to avoid that fate. He is trying to cancel his reservation at Kaliti Presidential suite.
I kept the beast for last. I am delighted to say the nature of the TPLF regime is the absolute best carrier of the fissionable material for our critical mass to reach its tipping point and deliver a brand new reality to our beautiful homeland. What more can you ask when you are given a virus that carries its own destruction code embedded. Our precious regime is doing that as we speak. The madness started about two months ago and it is continuing at an accelerated pace. Meles and company have completely and absolutely arrived at the conclusion that no matter what change is coming. They are swimming against the tide.
We are lucky that it does not require a lot to create panic in the TPLF politburo. They have a tendency to lash out blindly and irrationally. They are so used to bullying that violence is their first response for any new situation. They started by imprisoning media figures. Awramba Times deputy editor Wubeshet Taye and Feteh Magazine Reeyot Alemu were arrested on vague charges and kept in isolation. Their next victims were political leaders. Bekele Gerba of OFDM and Olbana Lelisa of OPC and twenty-nine individuals were arrested for being suspected of belonging to Oromo Liberation Front.
The arrest of Ato Debebe Eshetu, Ato Andualem Arage Secretary of UDJ and reporter Eskender Nega is the latest in this high stake drama. All are accused of the usual crimes of attempting to overthrow the constitutional order and belonging to terrorist organizations. As is customary they will be kept in isolation. Shimels Kemal will promise to produce evidence to prove their crime.
Why are Meles and company doing all this? I assure you it is not because it is fun. It is the only thing they know. They have been doing it for twenty years. Although both the domestic scene and the international situation are presenting a completely new reality the regime’s response seems unchanged. It is highly possible that they have decided there is no other palatable option left to them. That is the problem with criminal enterprises, they cannot cut and disappear, they carry too much baggage. I believe that is TPLF problem and we will set it aside.
If you notice closely they pick their victims carefully. TPLF goes for impact. They create big waves with big news. Ethiopia is one big TPLF prison. The ones we hear are about the big fish. For every Debebe, Andualem, Eskender, Bekele and Olbana there are hundred nameless incarcerated all over the country. This is the way they have been operating for twenty years. Remember Kinijit leaders, did you forget Teddy Afro or Judge Bertukan. They are all symbolic figures to send the message to the rest of us. It is in your face challenge. They are saying to us what are you going to do about it? The truth is it does not move their agenda one inch forward. Their empty bravado isolates them further and increases their paranoia.
We see hunger and we are sad. We see the hopelessness of our people and we grieve. We see the bravery of our neighbors in Egypt, Libya and Yemen and we see hope. When are we going to move from thinking to acting? When are we going to transform our apathy to a meaningful action? When are we going to stop crying for our mother and instead roll up our sleeves and smash the pain factory known as TPLF inc? Someone once said ‘acts of bravery don’t always take place in a battlefield.’ You don’t have to be in Ethiopia to fight TPLF injustice. We all did not go to South Africa to fight Apartheid. South Africans all did not pick up the gun to fight the unjust system. Those that wish freedom and justice fight from where ever they are.
We ask our people to take matter into their hands and smash the TPLF system wherever it rears its head in our precious land. TPLF headquarters, TPLF businesses, TPLF arms of coercion should be targeted and neutralized. All TPLF command and control centers should be made into battlefield. War has been declared on our people it is only fitting that we in turn make our country hell for those that want to impose their rotten, ethnic based rule on us. I am sure our people will turn fear into strength and show the few the power of the many. The time for tears is over. It is time to give a taste of their own medicine back to these ungrateful occupiers.
We hope to hear good news in the coming days and weeks. We hope to hear Meles squealing like a terrified pig from his hiding place under the palace. This is not idle talk or empty wish. It is going to happen because both the local and international situations are conducive to getting rid of tyrants. We each have a choice. We can sit at home or our favorite coffee houses and talk or we can rise up and complement the battle cry of our people. We can criticize those that are doing what they believe to be right or we can join the freedom train and make the battle quick and less painful.
The various Security personnel, Federal Police chiefs, Kebele leaders we want you to know that we are watching your every move. We are recording your every bad deed. We want you to know that Meles and family will try to finagle their way out of the mess they created but you will be left high and dry to fend for yourself. I was just following order has never been a good defense.
Syria and Ethiopia–two peas in a pod. By Yilma Bekele
Tahrir Square, Misrata, Darra, Homs are becoming a household name. They are home of the brave and the bold. History will show epic battles were fought in this locations and the people won. The battles were not against foreign aggressors but rather it was the people against one of their own. Movies will be made, musicals will be composed and poetry written chronicling the taste of freedom and the average person’s sacrifice to keep it. They are locations we should all be proud of. They are places where the word ‘NO’ resonated to be heard all around the world. Some will say they are places of shame. No one likes to wash dirty linen in public. The people of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Syria showed us sometimes it is necessary. It has to be done to cleanse the country from of years of accumulated spiritual dirt.
We in Ethiopia have a lot of cleaning to do. Our house is filled with dirt and grime. Sweeping the dirt under the rug did not work. Painting over the dirt only aggravated the existing illness. In our case reform is not such a good idea. It can be said that we introduced the concept of remodeling a crumbling house. We did not have a prototype to test our design. Our model failed twice. Fear no more. A final design is emerging in the Arab World. We have a successful prototype to adapt to our situation.
We thank our Arab neighbors for the heavy lifting. We envy their success while we are not ashamed to bask in their reflected glory. Our self-esteem is enhanced by their success. We are ready to learn and implement the final battle. The question is not if there is going to be a war but how best to prepare for it is our issue. What better teacher than our Arab friends can one ask for?
All three countries have their own story to tell. There is a common thread running thru out their story. All three were cursed with evil men in charge. Two have overcome and one is on the verge. We have watched all three closely and here is the lesson I have grasped from this unfolding event. As I write this Gadhafi and family are on the run but by the time you read it he could be in custody either in Tripoli, Benghazi or The Hague, even dead. A sorry ending to a sorry life.
Tunisia is the spoiler. Ben Ali is not a good prototype. He loved himself too much. He was able to see the writing on the wall. He bailed out the first instance of trouble. As a dictator he was not the pride of his club. Mrs. Leila Ben Ali did not fare any better. While the mob was outside the walls she was busy hauling gold from the National Bank. At least she got her priorities right. They took the last train out of town. We noticed Tunisians don’t have the stomach for violence. Compared to what came after, theirs is the quiet revolution. Even the name given to their uprising is so laidback. What do you expect from a ‘Jasmine Revolution’ other than love? The world will never forget Mohamed Bouazizi our hero that lit the fuse which is still burning.
Egypt is a different matter. Mubarak was a formidable foe. Unfortunate for him his opponents were more formidable and savvy. He had plenty of tricks in his bag and used them all. First he was belligerent. He dismissed the whole incident as another attempt by the feeble. Then he brought the old Moslem Brotherhood into the picture with al Qaeda thrown in to please the West. That did not get traction. It was time for good old cabinet shuffle. The people of Egypt went into collective yawn. It was time to bring out the tugs on camel back. Single handedly our Mubarak ignited Tahrir Square like never before. It was a matter of time before the dominos started to fall. The Generals grabbed the last parachute and bailed out. Egypt is too educated and advanced for us. The lesson for us is dictators are paper tigers.
Now Libya is very interesting. The resemblance to our Ethiopia is borderline freaky. They are not our twin but close. The Leader is someone existing in his own zone. Why not, he has been hallucinating for the last forty years. He had the nerve to scold the Tunisians for chasing Ben Ali and Leila. That requires balls made of titanium. Too bad the brain is a mush. Gadhafi thought he has all his ducks lined up. Nothing can go wrong in Libya. What – me worry he said. Delusion was his undoing. He has his elder son berating his people, his middle son with his own battalion rearing to burn and pillage and his only daughter screaming on National TV. Libya was a family affair.
Vain, selfish, spoiled and totally mad is a few of the adjectives used to explain this dysfunctional family. The oil money helped fuel their eccentric behavior. For forty years Libya was run like a family business. For forty years ‘The Leader’ was allowed to bully his people, bully his neighbors and entertain humanity. The West accommodated him when it suits their interest. The Libyan people suffered quietly. Today it is payback time.
Gadhafi felt he was safe why? Because he thought he did his homework that is why. He had all that is needed to run a police state. No independent Parties are allowed. Check. No independent media permitted. Check. No independent civic organizations tolerated. Check. Country divided among tribal lines. Check. Secret police let loose on the population. Check. Those that can be bribed, black mailed or exiled taken care of. Check. What in heaven went wrong? Sometimes it is not all about the belly. Mental and spiritual freedom is another necessary component. That is what is lacking in oil rich Libya. That is what Senor Gadhafi is finding out as he is hiding in a cold and wet underground bunker with no light and no TV to watch himself bully his people. Today he is the rebel and they are the State. Life has a way of catching up, you think? The Leader has a date to keep with International Court of Justice or a single bullet. He brought it on himself.
Syria is a different animal. Syria is our identical twin. Ato Meles meet Dr. Assad your long lost brother. Their resemblance is uncanny. Syria is our prototype. What Assad does Meles will do, you can be sure of that. What is being done to the Syrian people will be done to us, no question about that. Because the primitive nature of our society we get double dose. What exactly is Assad and company doing to their people is a good question.
Hafez al Assad the father of the current president died in 2000 after thirty years of brutal dictatorship. The Parliament amended the constitution reducing the mandatory minimum age of the President from 40 to 34 to allow his son to succeed him. In a referendum in which he ran unopposed he was able to ‘win’ 97.29%. You can say amending the constitution and rigging elections are a common trait shared by our brave leaders.
The Assad’s belong to the Alawi tribe. The Alawi are Arabic speaking ethno-religious community. According to Daniel Pipes writing in The Middle Eastern Studies ‘Alawis were the weakest, poorest, most rural, most despised, and most backward people of Syria. In recent years, however, they have transformed themselves into the ruling elite of Damascus. Today, Alawis dominate the government, hold key military positions, enjoy a disproportionate share of the educational resources, and are becoming wealthy.’
You see what I mean. Substitute Alawi with some people we know and you got a mirror image. The Alawi constitute 12% while ours account for 14%. Assad got Maher and Rifaat his two brother and other Alawi tribesmen in key positions controlling the Army and security while we got Smora Yunus, Tadese Worde and Gebre Dela. Where their allegiance lies is not difficult to guess. The Nation or the Tribal Leader is a hard choice to make. Sometimes but not today.
Here is where we and our Syrian cousins break ranks with Tunisia and Egypt. Ben Ali and Mubarak were measured in their response. The killing was a last resort. It was not a first response. An argument can be made for the two being a peaceful revolution or change thru non-violence. Without the population resorting to picking up arms. The regime of course killed but it was a half-hearted attempt. The nature of the Army made a big difference in the regimes psychology. Cairo and Tunis have a professional army loosely chained to the dictators while in Syria and Ethiopia the Army/State Security and the political leadership are peas in a pod. One cannot exist without the other. So what has Hafze’s son been up to? Nothing good at all!
His problem started when Tunisia erupted with Ben Ali fatigue. Bashir felt the heat all the way in Syria. It has been percolating ever since. All the standard responses have been tried. Nothing seems to work. He has tried sending tanks into neighborhoods, mass arrest, snipers on every tall building, concessionary speeches on TV, promises of coming election, lifting of draconian laws, setting up meetings with selected ‘opposition’ groups and encouraging inter-ethnic strife. None worked. There is no reason to think he is capable of meeting the demands of the people. The situation he has boxed himself does not allow compromise. The two thousand people his security has killed since the onset of the uprising have completely changed the situation.
Is there a formula that allows Assad to escape from this unfortunate situation? There is always a chance, isn’t that what Doctors tell you even when the diagnosis is terminal cancer? The truth is that there are not that many instances where serial criminals such as Assad or Gadhafi have negotiated a safe exit. A few have managed to negotiate a way out. Chile and South Africa are good examples. Assad’s Syria is a little different.
Both Augusto Pinochet and F.W de Klerk agreed to free and fair elections. They also received guarantees that the new regime will be measured in its dealings regarding the past. Their organizations and most of the upper class that benefited from the current order agreed ‘democracy with guarantees’ was a better way out. Is this possible in Syria?
The answer is a guarded no. There are factors that complicate the situation. How does the minority but highly visible Alawis react? They supplied the muscle to the regime wouldn’t a new situation complicate that? The resentful Sunni majority is not going to sit idle when they see a crack on the wall. Notice the role of the Mosques in this confrontation. How about the powder keg of the young and unemployed, what do they have to lose? Assad is between a hard place and a rock.
The opposition is becoming bold and relentless. The foreigners are putting a squeeze on him by freezing his account and threatening a few of his accomplices. The economy is tanking due to the strife economic and isolation and the Arab League has turned left. His Army is stretched thin and money is running low. Inflation is here.
Due to his and his father’s iron rule there is no credible opposition he can negotiate with. The mob on the street is not going to listen to his chosen leaders of the legal opposition. Accepting free and fair election is out of the question. Why would his Alawi base accept that? What guarantee do they have the Sunni majority will be so forgiving for years of abuse? Why would the criminal elements in the Security and Army expose themselves to trial and punishment? How about those paper millionaires both Alawi and Sunni, would they sit and watch while their wealth crumbles?
As you can see the similarities between the two countries is very scary. It is clear Assad is cornered. It has not occurred to him that further resistance is futile. The least we can do in Ethiopia is watch and learn and devise ways of turning our coming disaster into a positive moment. It is no use to pretend things are hanky dory. They are not. When a single Banana costs $10 bir, a liter of cooking oil costs $130 or so a kilo of coffee costs $140 it is not all right. It is not going to be all right in the near future. We have to discuss ways of confronting the problem and have a solution ready. We buy insurance in case we have an accident. When it happens, if it happens we are ready. Let’s us look at our country the same way. In case it starts to implode from inside, like the last two times I believe it is better to anticipate situations and devise appropriate response. This knee jerk response based on hate and insufficient knowledge and expertise is not rational or winning strategy.
