Aklog Birara, PhD
Have you ever wondered, as I have, why Ethiopia and the Ethiopian people are caught in a vicious cycle of disillusionment, dispossession and disempowerment? Have you pondered, as I have, the simple truth that the vast majority of the Ethiopian people have less say and thus less power over their political and economic affairs in their own country compared to a few ethnic elites and foreign investors such as Saudi Star and Karuturi? Have reflected on the implications for this and the coming generation of the virtual control of the pillars of the Ethiopian economy by foreign entities, and a few ethnic elites allied to TPLF Inc.? Have you taken one second of your time to ponder the destruction of the environment by unscrupulous investors and the regime that encourages them? Have you taken a few minutes of your time to reflect why Ethiopian Christians working in Saudi Arabia find themselves in a predicament for praying in a Muslim State while Saudis are free to build mosques and to pray as they wish anywhere in Ethiopia?
Anywhere one looks, Ethiopians within and outside the country cry for a government leadership to protect theirs and their country’s national interests. These and other core policy related questions on Ethiopia and Ethiopians suggest an enormous gap in organization and leadership that is purpose-driven. What we see in every global indicator is a country where there is growth without improvement in wellbeing for the majority. In fact, data shows that the poor are getting poorer; and the no of those in absolute poverty is growing at or above the rate of economic growth that benefits only a few. This is the reason why I suggest consistently that Ethiopia and all Ethiopians are crying for a caring and inclusive alternative in governance.
I would argue that the urgent gap in responsive governance is ethnicity, religious and demography neutral. All Ethiopians feel it in some form or another. So, division makes no sense. Only a strong and prosperous multiethnic state that responds to all stakeholders can survive and thrive. Accordingly, we need to recognize that all Ethiopians have a stake; and are thus responsible in filling the vacuum. In light of this, it is time that we expand and embrace the definition and action steps that will lead the entire society to a better and more promising alternative than the current one. We cannot do this as long as we are guided by the ethnic and divisive script imposed on us by TPLF Inc. This system survives and gains from growth that does not improve the lives of people.
We need to consider the higher moral ground that the same way “families and friends need leaders who model purpose-driven lives,” Ethiopian society and communities anywhere and everywhere should expect to defend their human rights; improve their lot; and chart a more promising future for their children. Can this really be done? Can Ethiopian political, civic and faith leaders and intellectuals surmount their own narrow interests and prejudices for the sake of the country and its diverse population? The simple answer is that there is no other choice. If those who oppose the current system are genuine, they must discard old animosities and forge ahead with renewed optimism and cooperate with one another. Otherwise, we should stop the entire business of protest politics and politics as a business enterprise: the model TPLF Inc. has imposed on each of us.
I suggest in this piece that Ethiopians who wish to be treated with respect and dignity anywhere in the world and who wish a better future for this and the coming generation stop the none sense of ethnic and religious or demographic divisions. What TPLF Inc. has and is doing is enough as it is. They can start with baby steps: stop demeaning and undermining one another. Stop the culture of revenge and innuendos. Reach-out to and talk to one another as adults. Work with and collaborate with one another. Campaign against all forms of injustice collaboratively. Treat individual dissenters as Ethiopians and not as members of this or that tribe. Accept our diversity as a source of strength and celebrate one another. Demand and promote innovative, inclusive, smart and wiser alternative organization and leadership–with demonstrated capability of grasping what is at stake (the bigger picture of the country and its people; and committing self to set aside minor differences; and practicing the discipline and consistency of forging a unity of purpose among all ethnic, religious and demographic groups. Here, it is commitment to the common good that matters most. If we fail to do this fast, we have no one to blame but ourselves. These baby steps will not be easy; but can be done.
In the Ethiopian context, a unity of purpose must affirm failures of the past without being trapped in it. It must affirm commitment to justice, the rule of law, passion for unfettered and equitable access to economic and social opportunities, and representative governance based on free and fair elections. A child in Gambella must believe that he/she is an Ethiopian and deserves the same rights as a child in Tigray or Oromia or Addis Ababa and so on. We must decide and work day and night to create favorable conditions that embrace each child regardless of ethnic or religious affiliation. This has the best chance of safeguarding past gains while advancing a more promising future for the vast majority of Ethiopians that the current system is unable to deliver. This will not happen unless adults show commitment that transcends ethnicity and partisanship. This is not a world for the weak, timid and partisan. A strong, just, inclusive, fair and prosperous Ethiopia will be good for everyone. This is why I suggest that it is not just the so-called “unity crowd” that will benefit from a just, fair and inclusive system. It is all Ethiopians.
The acid test of alternative organization and leadership is readiness and ability of political, civic, religious and other elites to mobilize the country’s mosaic and establish a brighter and more inclusive alternative that restores faith and confidence in the political process of the future. This will not be as easy as it seems. If it were; it would have been achieved by now. Take a look back at political history that is still fresh. MEISONE and EPRPP decided to fight one another rather than to advance the common goals of the Ethiopian people and the sacred interests of the country. I do not have to tell you what happened and who paid a huge price. Division for the sake of power and narrow ideology or ego or tribe is disastrous. Hypocrisy is the mantra of those who are afraid to take a principled stand for a bigger and larger cause.
How does one explain divisions among Ethiopian Orthodox Church leaders and followers? I believe that, within the Ethiopian Orthodox faith, we need one creed and leadership as we need one country. I reject factionalism and tribalism within the Ethiopian Orthodox faith as much as I reject narrow nationalism and big nation chauvinism in political doctrine. Divisions reinforce hypocrisy and cynicism. I will give you a simple example on hypocrisy of faith. A group of activists tried to mobilize the Ethiopian Diaspora in the Washington Metropolitan Area for a protest against Saudi Government mistreatment and human rights violations of Ethiopian Christians. Religious leaders failed to participate and give moral support. How do they explain this to their followers?
Given the formidable forces we face as people , any alternative organization and leadership would have little chance of success unless and until we unlearn the debilitating impacts of divisive ethnic politics: the ‘silent killer.’ How can we do this? Why not embrace and practice such fundamental principles as integrity, purity of heart, spirit of cooperation with one another, commitment to serve the entire population and the country in our day to day lives? Why not show capacity to reject all forms of ethnic, religious, gender and age based bigotry, prejudice, corruption, nepotism and discrimination ourselves? Why not subordinate narrow, personal and group agendas to the common good of saving the country and serving the Ethiopian people as a whole? How difficult are these to do? How would we triumph over TPLF Inc. without dramatic changes in our own mindset, values and how we treat one another as Ethiopians? What form of coalition or transition are we after if we do not answer these and other fundamental questions? I suggest that discussing alternatives without demonstrating real change in our own mindsets and in our dealings with one another will not be credible in the eyes of the Ethiopian people or the global community. The London Conference of 1991 took place without sober analysis and discussion of similar questions. This is a real challenge for all activists and opponents to TPLF Inc.
Seventy Five to Eighty percent reject TPLF Inc.
At the risk of repeating, those of us who wish to pursue a more promising future for all Ethiopians must appreciate that our own bickering and division are the most constraining contributors to the strength of TPLF Inc. By all accounts, less than a quarter of Ethiopians accept the legitimacy of the current governing party (Gallop). It is thus an understatement to say that regardless of ethnic, religious or demographic affiliation, close to 80 percent of the Ethiopian people reject TPLF Inc. and want change. Western powers would want an alternative that would serve their interests best as was the case in London in 1991. The root causes of disillusionment, disempowerment, dispossession, abject poverty, hunger and intellectual and financial capital flight out of Ethiopia is deliberate ethnicization of politics and economics by TPLF Inc., a monopoly.
Almost everyone is reduced to subservient status. If you cannot count in your own homeland; you cannot expect to count anywhere else in the world. This is why nation states that are strong and defend your interests overseas have a voice. Almost everyone anywhere in the world is forced to fear the system that keeps them entrapped and powerless. People know this but cannot contest that the primary motive of ethnicization is to run the country purely as a business monopoly. The formation of political parties on the basis of ethnic affiliation serves the ultimate purpose of command and control over local, regional and national politics, resources and markets. Your rights mean nothing at all. This is by no means to suggest that there are no second class type beneficiaries. Some prefer second class status because they have not experienced a better system; and are suspicious of change. TPLF Inc. is smart enough to remind secondary beneficiaries that they should guard against restoration of the old system. The hidden message is specific to one so called dominant ethnic group. The tragedy is not so much that this camouflage persists; but that the rest of us fall into the trap. The result is a reinforcement of ethnic division and disempowerment that serve TPLF Inc.
Duality of ‘silent violence or killing’
Ethnicization of politics and economics serves two strategic objectives: divide and rule and extract as much rent as possible from the national economy. Please note that division serves TPLF Inc. most. The greater the division among Ethiopians; the larger is the opportunity to extract rents in different forms; and to make people believe that they are beneficiaries. Where have you seen growth that expands poverty? Extraction is hard to do in a multiethnic society unless some of the benefits go to supporters and ethnic elites who serve as intermediaries. If you want to justify a system, hire small beneficiaries who believe that the sky is blue. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) operates within this environment and serves TPLF Inc. best. Whether we accept it or not, it is, largely intermediaries (middle management) who facilitate the policy and decision-making authority of TPLF Inc. When you are a subordinate, the likelihood of dissenting against the dictates of the merged state is negligible. The Constitution, laws and regulations are bendable and changeable in accordance with the demands of TPLF Inc. Anyone who threatens TPLF Inc. risks the possibility of losing his or her private property or citizenship at any time. There is nowhere to hide except fleeing the country. More intellectual flight, especially those who are national leaning means more domestic vacuum that can compete and safeguard national resources and markets. Ethiopia is void of this asset.
What do regulations and laws do?
Under this system, regulations, laws, banks and other financial intermediaries serve political purposes: the staying power of TPLF Inc. They are therefore not value neutral. How else would you explain the phenomenon that generals and high officers–paid modest salaries to defend the country–are among the wealthiest and most powerful people in the country? Their powerful and wealth status resembles corrupt governance in Egypt and Pakistan than Ghana, Mauritius or Brazil. These generals and high officials are coopted through financial and economic incentives the same way as ethnic elites who belong to the EPRDF and who serve as intermediaries (middle men). Both are among the lead proponents of TPLF Inc. This phenomenon leads me to assert that the business of ethnic politics in Ethiopia today is financial and economic reward. It is the notion of “what is in it for me” that seems to prevail throughout the entire system. Some in the Diaspora reflect the same values. This is why the Diaspora’s role in prolonging the system that divides and disempowers is coming under increasing scrutiny by activists. In any case, it is fair to conclude that the system does not encourage commitment to and service to ordinary citizens, communities and the country.
In this sense, the Ethiopian Prime Minister is absolutely right when he said to business leaders last year that if people are not careful they will more or less lose their country. Why did he say this? Increasingly, foreign firms are assuming the pillars of the economy while Ethiopians with wealth are either investing in consumption oriented ventures or taking their monies out of the country at an alarming rate. They have no confidence in the government or the future of the country. How sad? Contrast this with Indonesian corruption that emphasized growing the economy and benefitting Indonesians as a commitment.
The Prime Minister is right and wrong. The problem is that it is the system he set up that created selfishness, greed, capital flight and unbelievable income inequality. His extended family and ethnic elites are the lead beneficiaries. This phenomenon does not surprise me a bit. It takes an enabling social, economic and political environment to encourage saving and investment in productive sectors that will change the system radically. It takes national leadership to motivate the private sector to do what is right for the country and its diverse population. Some of the most corrupt nations in the world, Indonesia for one, were and are still led by nationalist groups. At least, what is stolen is invested domestically in factories that generate jobs; raise incomes; and expand the middle class. This is not the case in Ethiopia. It seems that the system has created a culture of greed, fear of the future and total disregard for this and the coming generation and the overall development of the country. The current motto is “What is in it for me?” and not “what am I doing for the country and its people while enriching myself?” There is a huge difference between the two.
In this reward and punishment type of arrangement that serves TPLF Inc. and its allies well, the real and potential losses for communities, the society and the country are self-evident. They are everywhere for anyone willing to see. Sad but true, some in the Diaspora who run back and forth on a visit to the country as tourists or to manage their assets or to access opportunities fail to reflect on how the vast majority of the population lives. It is glitz of villas, apartments, eating places, hotels, roads and other physical infrastructure– that needs to be maintained and paid for—that catch their fancy and immediate attention. I often wonder whether Diaspora tourists ask the prudent question of how road infrastructure that lasts an average of five years will be maintained. Who will pay the maintenance costs? Dig deep into the artificial economy; and you will find that most Ethiopians are poorer today than they were 21 years ago. They barely eat one meal a day.
A properly and well integrated and planned economy stimulates productivity and raises individual incomes from large numbers of people. Investments in industry, agro-industry, agriculture and so on trigger structural changes in dramatic and sustainable ways. Infrastructure alone will not do that. The Ethiopian economy is import dependent. Industry accounts for about 4 percent of exports. By structural changes I have in mind factories that offer job opportunities to millions. Factories that produce fertilizers that feed agriculture. I have in mind a smallholder farming revolution that is supported by low cost inputs such as fertilizers, better seeds, access to credits and markets and so on. A smallholder farming revolution would do wonders for the country and the rural and urban population than land giveaways to Saudi Star to feed rich consumers in the Gulf or to Karuturi to supply cheap foods to Indian consumers. For citizens to benefit, Ethiopian smallholders deserve tenure security and freedom to produce and market and gain higher incomes so that they can send their children to school and so on. In short, I suggest that glitz alone does not contribute to sustainable and equitable growth and development regardless of the number of high-rises, condominiums, hotels, eating places for the few well-to-do, including Diaspora tourists, villas etc. Ask a simple question. Who, among the Ethiopian poor or low level civil servants or soldiers or factory workers or Saudi Star employee can afford to live in a condo in Addis Ababa, Mekele or Gondar? Who can afford food that Diaspora visitors or donors or high level government officials can afford? This is among the reasons why the system is a ‘silent killer.”
Portrayal of ‘silent violence or killing’
The Socialist military dictatorship killed innocent people in public and boasted about it. It triggered domestic and global outrage. In contrast, TPLF Inc. learned from this mistake and ‘kills quietly or silently’ than its predecessor. This makes it more dangerous and sinister. We see this vividly in the brutal beating of Andualem Aragie in jail. Given this most recent example, dissidents and reasonable people in the Diaspora cannot afford to forget and neglect enormous losses for the society and the country under TPLF Inc. Loses occur on a recurring basis. The concern I have is that we seem to be in a mode of just accepting loses as normal; and go on as if nothing has happened. Here are clear and harmful examples with devastating impacts. Ethiopia lost its sea ports for which the society pays billions of dollars for services. This loss took place without the consent of the Ethiopian people. No voice.
In a secret deal with the now northern Sudanese government led by President Bashir, Prime Minister Meles’ government granted substantial pieces of Ethiopian territory to Bashir’s regime. During the initial period if TPLF Inc. lands from Gondar, Wollo and other regions, were carved out and reconfigured for the benefit of what is commonly known as “Greater Tigray,” a condition that will not serve the greater good. This ethnic based reconfiguration and incorporation will create animosity among the population for generations to come. The regime will no doubt go; but the animosity will persist for generations.
TPLF Inc. granted millions of ha of the most fertile farmlands and water basins to businesses and individuals from 36 countries and to Tigrean elites. Oakland Institute reported that 75 percent of domestic owners in Gambella are Tigrean. This comes across as internal ‘land colonization.’ Tigreans should not blame other Ethiopians why they perceive that they are part of the problem. The medicine is to contest this outright; and to join others in rejecting TPLF Inc. Like the reset, they should accept the notion that Ethiopians suffer silently from a double whammy: foreign large-scale commercial farm colonization by invitation and real natural resource transfers to ethnic allies. Karuturi, Saudi Star and other foreign owned large-scale commercial farms are the new landlords in the country. These new land lords gain profits by dispossessing Ethiopians. How would an Anuak child feel about a condition that displaces and dispossess her/him? What are the rest of us doing about it? Transparency International, Global Financial Integrity and UNDP all confirm that billions of dollars of scarce foreign exchange is stolen from Ethiopian society each year. Corruption is a net cost to this and the coming generation in multiple ways. It is the current and future generations who will pay a huge price for this.
Ironically, foreign owned large-scale commercial farms are protected by branches of Ethiopia’s police, security and defense forces. In Central America and Pakistan, Special Forces paid for by investors protected such establishment against the population. Those who struggle for alternative organization and leadership ought to ask, “Whose interests do police, security and armed forces protect in Gambella or the Ogaden or anywhere?” It certainly is not the interests of the people who are forced out of their lands or the long-term interests of the country.
Opponents have a moral responsibility to educate ordinary soldiers, police and others that their repressive roles on behalf of TPLF Inc. or foreign investors will alienate them from their own extended families and communities. We cannot do this in meaningful ways if we are detached from the Ethiopian reality on the ground.
‘Silent violence or killing’ does not discriminate
Regardless of ethnic or religious affiliation, those who dissent against the above and other social, political and economic injustices are subjected to cruel and inhumane treatment without any let up. Andualem Aragie, an individual who hails from Gondar, was beaten up in his cell by an inmate because he stood for justice, democratic freedom and the rule of law. He did not dare to challenge the system because of his ethnic affiliation. He did this as an Ethiopian. His is a prime example of ‘silent killing’ by TPLF Inc. I do not have any proof to suggest that the inmate who assaulted him was planted by the governing party. However, I challenge the notion that anyone imprisoned by the one party state cannot and should not expect safety and security even in jail. It is a travesty that says more about the cruel and unjust system than about the inmate. The system does not tolerate dissent or symbols of dissent whether in jail, in the Diaspora or within the country. It does its job silently and methodically.
This takes me back to the formation and acceptability of ethnic-based political parties under TPLF Inc. I argue that this is part of the strategy of divide and rule; and a clever mechanism to coopt and subordinate the majority by using ethnic elite and other self-serving intermediaries. The more division there is; the less challenge to and dissent against TPLF Inc. Aspiring elites are recruited to the club on the basis of their submission, commitment to defend and serve the system while advancing self-interest. The business of ethnic politics is therefore to ensure that narrow band of-largely ethnic elites- are well served. Those of us who want a better future for all Ethiopians need to accept the truth that ethnic division and narrow self-interest entail enormous costs for the majority of people; and for the long-term viability and security of the country. The economic and financial incentives that accrue from this system are so critical for the beneficiaries that they become both pawns and the most avid supporters of ethnicization of politics and economics. At one level, it is hard to blame secondary beneficiaries. It is a matter of survival. What other option do they have? Those of us who oppose the system do not show consistent commitment to come to the aid of those who suffer within the country. We just react or protest for a day and stop. Secondary beneficiaries who may resent the system know our weakness, namely, our inability to mobilize resources and aid those who advance justice and fair treatment. The challenge for us is to make distinctions between the top leadership of TPLF Inc. and the rest and determine to expose this cruel and repressive system consistently. We can plant seeds of separation among constituent parts that sustain TPLF Inc.
Focus on the system that sustains ‘silent violence and killing’
I suggest that our singular focus should be less on our division and more on the system that sustains repression through division; and breeds social and economic inequality. I further suggest that the real political and social foundation of the struggle for a better and more inclusive society is in Ethiopia and not overseas. TPLF Inc. created the EPRDF to mobilize dissatisfied ethnic-based political elites in order to enlarge the party’s narrow political power base. To some, this strategy gave ethnic politics a democratic façade. This façade has no human face. However, it is, ultimately, the Ethiopian people who should judge in a free and fair election. The system now uses this ethnic architecture against those it perceives inimical to its well-designed political, social, financial and economic goals and interests. This is why Andualem and others are paying with their lives. Like other patriotic and nationalist individuals who stand for justice, the rule of law and political pluralism, he represents the hopes and aspirations we all share. He is thus a symbol of a brighter future for all Ethiopians and must be treated as such. TPLF Inc. applies the same methodology of punishing him, his family and friends and his community by making life totally intolerable. The intent is to make sure that others fear the brutality of the regime. This happens to Anuak, Somali, Amhara, Oromo, Gurage, and Tigray alike. Why can’t we recognize this and collaborate?
Given this recurring history of gross human rights violations against the innocent and the dispossession of the Ethiopian people as a whole, and acknowledging those who stand firm for justice and freedom, I am saddened to note that even Andualem’s dire and deplorable condition does not move and revolt those of us in the Diaspora in meaningful and sustainable ways. We seem to possess souls that do not move; hearts that do not empathize; minds that do not distinguish; and actions that do not make a dent. These are not Ethiopians values. I opine that we can no longer see people such as Andualem or others like him just as another individual activist individual in trouble. Rather, we must see him as a symbol of resistance and defiance from a new generation of potential leaders who represent hope and promise: “purpose-driven lives.”
It is time that we wake up and reject ‘silent violence and killing’ against any Ethiopian such as Andualem who stands for justice and freedom.
2/21/2012
In December 2008, I wrote a weekly commentary lamenting the fact that 2008 was “Groundhog Year” in Ethiopia:
It was a repetition of 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004… Everyday millions of Ethiopians woke up only to find themselves trapped in a time loop where their lives replayed like a broken record. Each “new” day is the same as the one before it: Repression, intimidation, corruption, incarceration, deception, brutalization and human rights violation… They have no idea how to get out of this awful cycle of misery, agony, despair and tribulation. So, they pray and pray and pray and pray… for deliverance from Evil!
It is December 2012. Are Ethiopians better off today than they were in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011?
Does bread (teff) cost more today than it did in 2008…, a year ago? Cooking oil, produce, basic staples, beef, poultry, housing, water, electricity, household fuel, gasoline…?
Are there more poor people in Ethiopia today than there were in 2008? More hunger, homelessness, unemployment, less health care, fewer educational opportunities for young people?
Is there more corruption and secrecy and less transparency and accountability in December 2012 than in December 2008?
Are elections more free and fair in 2012 than in 2008?
Are there more political prisoners today than in 2008?
Is there less press freedom and are more journalists in prison today than in 2008?
Is Ethiopia more dependent on international handouts for its daily bread today than it was in 2008?
Is there more environmental pollution, habitat destruction, forced human displacement and land grabbing in Ethiopia today than 2008?
Is Ethiopia today still at the very bottom of the U.N. Human Development Index?
The Evidence on Government Wrongs in Ethiopia in 2012
Human rights violations in Ethiopia continue to draw sharp and sustained condemnation from all of the major international human rights organizations and other legal bodies. In 2012, the ruling regime in that country has become intensely repressive and arrogantly intolerant of all dissent and opposition. The regime continues to trash its own Constitution, sneer at its international legal obligations and thumb its nose at its critics. Though some incorrigible optimists hoped a post-Meles regime would open up the political space, reach out to opposition elements and at least engage in human rights window dressing, the nauseating litany of those who are falling head over heels to fit into Meles’ shoes has been “there will be no change. We will (blindly) follow Meles’ vision…” In other words, 2013, 2014, 2015… will be no better than 2012 or 2008.
The evidence of sustained and massive official human rights violations in Ethiopia is overwhelming and irrefutable. Let the evidence speak for itself.
The U.S. State Department Country Reports on Human Rights Practices in Ethiopia (May 2012) concluded:
The most significant human rights problems [in Ethiopia] included the government’s arrest of more than 100 opposition political figures, activists, journalists, and bloggers… The government restricted freedom of the press, and fear of harassment and arrest led journalists to practice self-censorship. The Charities and Societies Proclamation (CSO law) continued to impose severe restrictions on civil society and nongovernmental organization (NGO) activities… Other human rights problems included torture, beating, abuse, and mistreatment of detainees by security forces; harsh and at times life-threatening prison conditions; arbitrary arrest and detention; detention without charge and lengthy pretrial detention; infringement on citizens’ privacy rights, including illegal searches; allegations of abuses in connection with the continued low-level conflict in parts of the Somali region; restrictions on freedom of assembly, association, and movement; police, administrative, and judicial corruption…
Human Rights Watch concluded:
Ethiopian authorities continued to severely restrict basic rights of freedom of expression, association, and assembly. Hundreds of Ethiopians in 2011 were arbitrarily arrested and detained and remain at risk of torture and ill-treatment. Attacks on political opposition and dissent persisted throughout 2011, with mass arrests of ethnic Oromo, including members of the Oromo political opposition in March, and a wider crackdown with arrests of journalists and opposition politicians from June to September 2011. The restrictive Anti-Terrorism Proclamation (adopted in 2009) has been used to justify arrests of both journalists and members of the political opposition…
Freedom House concluded:
Ethiopia is ranked Not Free in Freedom in the World 2012, with a score of 6 for both political rights and civil liberties. Political life in Ethiopia is dominated by the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), which was led by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi from 1995 until his death in August 2012. May 2011 federal and regional elections were tightly controlled by the EPRDF; voters were threatened if they did not support the ruling party, and opposition meetings were broken up while leaders were threatened or detained. The EPRDF routinely utilizes the country’s anti-terrorism laws to target opposition leaders and the media. Parliament has declared much of the opposition to be terrorist groups and has targeted journalists who cover any opposition activity. Media is dominated by state-owned broadcasters and government-oriented newspapers. A 2009 law greatly restricts NGO activity in the country by prohibiting work in the area of human and political rights and limiting the amount of international funding any organization may receive. This law has neutered the NGO sector in the country. The judiciary is independent in name only, with judgments that rarely deviate from government policy.
Amnesty International urged that the “government of Ethiopia should see the succession of Meles as an opportunity to break with the past and end the practice of arresting anyone and everyone who criticizes the government.”
A group of U.N. Special Rapporteurs (an independent group of investigating experts authorized by the United Nations Human Rights Council) in 2012 issued public statements condemning the ruling regime for its indiscriminate use of the so-called anti-terrorism law to suppress a broad range of freedoms and for flagrantly perpetuating and sanctioning human rights violations.
Maina Kiai, the U.N. Special Rapporteur on the rights to freedom of peaceful assembly and of association, concluded, “The resort to anti-terrorism legislation is one of the many obstacles faced by associations today in Ethiopia. The Government must ensure protection across all areas involving the work of associations, especially in relation to human rights issues.”
Ben Emmerson, the U.N. Special Rapporteur on counter-terrorism and human rights warned that “the anti-terrorism provisions should not be abused and need to be clearly defined in Ethiopian criminal law to ensure that they do not go counter to internationally guaranteed human rights.”
Frank La Rue, the U.N. Special Rapporteur on freedom of expression stated that “Journalists play a crucial role in promoting accountability of public officials by investigating and informing the public about human rights violations. They should not face criminal proceedings for carrying out their legitimate work, let alone be severely punished.”
Margaret Sekaggya, the U.N. Special Rapporteur on human rights defenders criticized that “journalists, bloggers and others advocating for increased respect for human rights should not be subject to pressure for the mere fact that their views are not in alignment with those of the Government [of Ethiopia].”
Gabriela Knaul, the U.N. Special Rapporteur on the independence of judges and lawyers argued that “Defendants in a criminal process should be considered as innocent until proven guilty as enshrined in the Constitution of Ethiopia… And it is crucial that defendants have access to a lawyer during the pre-trial stage to safeguard their right to prepare their legal defence.”
On December 18, 2012, 16 members of the European Parliament issued a public letter to Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn “expressing grave concern over the continued detention of journalist and blogger Eskinder Nega”. In the letter, the members reminded Desalegn to comply with his “government’s obligation to respect the right to freedom of expression as established under customary international law and codified in Article 19 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, to which Ethiopia is a party.”
The Regime Must Cease and Desist All Unlawful Interference in the Exercise of Religious Freedom
Article 11 of the Ethiopian Constitution mandates “separation of state and religion” to ensure that the “Ethiopian State is a secular state” and that “no state religion” is established. Article 27 prohibits “coercion by force or any other means, which would impair his freedom to have or to adopt a religion or belief of his choice.”
Despite clear legal obligations to respect the religious liberties of citizens, the ruling regime in Ethiopia has played fast and loose with the rights of Muslim citizens to select their own religious and spiritual leaders. According to the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom, an independent body constituted by the Congress and the President of the United States to monitor religious freedom worldwide:
Since July 2011, the Ethiopian government has sought to impose the al-Ahbash Islamic sect on the country’s Muslim community, a community that traditionally has practiced the Sufi form of Islam. The government also has manipulated the election of the new leaders of the Ethiopia Islamic Affairs Supreme Council (EIASC). Previously viewed as an independent body, EIASC is now viewed as a government-controlled institution. The arrests, terrorism charges and takeover of EIASC signify a troubling escalation in the government’s attempts to control Ethiopia’s Muslim community and provide further evidence of a decline in religious freedom in Ethiopia. Muslims throughout Ethiopia have been arrested during peaceful protests: On October 29, the Ethiopia government charged 29 protestors with terrorism and attempting to establish an Islamic state.
The regime must conform its conduct to the requirements of its Constitution and international legal obligations and cease and desist interference in the free exercise of religion of Muslim citizens. All citizens unlawfully arrested and detained in connection with the peaceful protest of unlawful deprivation of religious liberty must be released forthwith.
All Political Prisoners Must be Released
The number of political prisoners has yet to be fully documented in Ethiopia today. While human rights organizations have focused on multiple dozens of high profile political prisoners, there are in fact tens of thousands of ordinary Ethiopians who are held in detention because of their beliefs, open opposition or refusal to support the ruling regime. All political prisoners must be released immediately.
In a broader sense, there are two types of political prisoners in Ethiopia today. There are prisoners of conscience and prisoners-of-their-own-consciences. The prisoners of conscience are imprisoned because they are dissidents, opposition party leaders and journalists. They have done no legal or moral wrong. In fact, they have done what is morally and legally right. They have told the truth. They have spoken truth to power. They have stood up to injustice. They have defended freedom, democracy and human rights by paying the ultimate price with their lives and liberties. They can be set free by the stroke of the pen.
The prisoners-of-their-own-consciences became prisoners by committing crimes against humanity in the first degree with the lesser included offenses of the crimes of ignorance, arrogance and petulance. These prisoners are numbed by the opiate of power. They live in fear and anxiety of being held accountable any given day. They dread the day the wrath of the people will be visited upon them. They know with certainty that they will one day be judged by the very scales they have used to judge others.
The prisoners-in-their-own-conscience can free the prisoners of conscience and thereby free themselves. That is their only salvation. In the alternative, let them heed Gandhi’s dire warning: “There have been tyrants and murderers, and for a time they seem invincible, but in the end they always fall—think of it always.”
Stop Repressing the Press
Napoleon Bonaparte said, “Four hostile newspapers are more to be feared than a thousand bayonets.” That rings true for the ruling regime in Ethiopia. Last week three imprisoned and one exiled Ethiopian journalists received the prestigious Hellman/Hammett Award for 2012 “in recognition of their efforts to promote free expression in Ethiopia, one of the world’s most restricted media environments”. The recipients included Eskinder Nega, an independent journalist and blogger and recipient of the 2012 PEN International freedom to Write Award; Reeyot Alemu, one of the few Ethiopian female journalists associated with the officially shuttered weekly newspaper Feteh and recipient of the 2012 International Women’s Media Courage in Journalism Award; Woubshet Taye, editor of the officially shuttered weekly newspaper Awramba Times and Mesfin Negash of Addis Neger Online, another weekly officially shuttered before going online. The four were among a diverse group of 41 writers and journalists from 19 countries to receive the Hellman/Hammett Award.According to Human Rights Watch:
The four jailed and exiled journalists exemplify the courage and dire situation of independent journalism in Ethiopia today. Their ordeals illustrate the price of speaking freely in a country where free speech is no longer tolerated. The journalistic work and liberty of the four Ethiopian award-winners has been suppressed by the Ethiopian government in its efforts to restrict free speech and peaceful dissent, clamp down on independent media, and limit access to and use of the internet. They represent a much larger group of journalists in Ethiopia forced to self-censor, face prosecution, or flee the country.
All dictators and tyrants in history have feared the enlightening powers of the independent press. Total control of the media remains the wicked obsession of all modern day dictators who believe that by controlling the flow of information, they can control the hearts and minds of their citizens. But that is only wishful thinking. As Napoleon realized, “a journalist is a grumbler, a censurer, a giver of advice, a regent of sovereigns and a tutor of nations.” Like Napoleon, the greatest fear of the dictators in Ethiopia is the “tutoring” aspect of the press — teaching, informing, enlightening and empowering the people with knowledge. They understand the power of the independent press to effectively countercheck their tyrannical rule and hold him accountable before the people. Like Napoleon, they have spared no effort to harass, jail, censor and muzzle journalists for criticizing and exposing their criminality, use of a vast network of spies to terrorize Ethiopian society, shining the light of truth on their military and policy failures, condemning their indiscriminate massacres of unarmed citizen protesters in the streets and for killing, jailing and persecuting their political opponents.
All imprisoned journalists must be released immediately.
“Those who make peaceful change impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.” JFK
Professor Alemayehu G. Mariam teaches political science at California State University, San Bernardino and is a practicing defense lawyer.
Previous commentaries by the author are available at:
http://open.salon.com/blog/almariam/
www.huffingtonpost.com/alemayehu-g-mariam/
Amharic translations of recent commentaries by the author may be found at:
http://www.ecadforum.com/Amharic/archives/category/al-mariam-amharic
http://ethioforum.org/?cat=24
By Yilma Bekele
The press release was short and to the point. It was only six paragraphs long and was written in a matter of fact way. There were no trumpets blaring, no press conference with TV lights and no lavish dinner to commemorate the event. The announcement reminded me of the proverb ‘best things come in small packages.’ So it was without much fanfare I read the most important announcement on Abbay Media and Quatero. Tucked among the news was the announcement regarding the formation of Ginbot 7 Popular Force (GPF).
It is vintage G7. Doing what needs to be done in a deliberate and intelligent manner. Since their inception the folks of G7 have gone about building their organization, finding common ground with others and laying a firm and solid foundation to move our quest for freedom and dignity in a purposeful manner. Their accomplishment the last four years speaks volumes to their ability as leaders of a new style of struggle that is beginning to bear fruit.
As the establishment of ESAT was a game changer, as the successful meeting of mind with the OLF was a ground shaking event this announcement regarding the formation of Ginbot 7 Popular Forces is a monumental achievement in the annals of our struggle. It is a milestone in the evolution of our struggle to be free and democratic.
It is a brand new day in Ethiopia. Our struggle is entering a new phase. It is a necessary phase imposed upon our people by the belligerent and lawless regime. It was not an easy decision for the Front to make. No one relishes the idea of an armed confrontation especially with one’s own brothers and sisters but there comes a time when self-preservation becomes a vital issue. The short announcement makes that fact clear.
The TPLF regime has been in power for over twenty years now. The last twenty years have been a period of destabilization, conflict and agony for our people. No one can deny that. The result of this chaotic and illegal system is laid in front of us. Despite the much heralded so called ‘economic miracle’ thrown on our face our country is mired in famine and poverty, our children are scattered all over the world, our daughters are enslaved in the Middle East by the thousands, our people are denied the simple luxury of reading a free paper or listening to independent news and our jails are filled by innocent victims of a mad system.
This is what makes the formation of GPF a must and important component of our struggle. The Ethiopian people have tried every avenue open to let the regime know that the monopoly of power is not conducive to a just and harmonious system. Our people have bent backwards to accommodate the regime to change its aggressive ways. International organizations such as the European Union and others have tried to mediate. The arrogant and petty government has shown complete disregard to our needs and concerns.
That is why I wrote ‘leveling the playing field’ in the title. Violence is a two way street. Up until now the TPLF regime has the monopoly of violence. It has used it with impunity. The late dictator even used to taunt as to try fighting back. We are patient people. But despite the failings of the last few years we are also brave people. At long last we have decided to stand our ground and defend our people from evil. Self-defense is a God given right to every human being. It is time we in Ethiopia exercise that right.
We celebrate those that are still trying to let the TPLF regime know their peaceful intentions to bring change. It is to no one’s interest to shed blood in anger. The death of a single Ethiopian should be avoided at all cost. That can only happen when there is the rule of law in the country we call Ethiopia. It could not come about by a government based on a single ethnic group, by a government hell bent on monopolizing army, commerce, communications and politics by a chosen few.
GPF is our shield. GPF will prove to the arrogant TPLF army and security there will be consequences to aggression. As anything started by the seasoned leaders of Ginbot 7 there is no question GPF will prove itself to be a worthy child of Tewodros, Yohanes, Minilik, Aba Jifar, Tona and many other patriots. There is no question in my mind that the Ethiopian people will take GPF into their fold, love and nurture it. Our wish has been fulfilled and TPLF nightmare has just started.
There will be those that will try to belittle our effort and mock our resolve. Some will accuse the Diaspora of fanning the flames of war. No matter the die has been cast and the long journey has started. It is sad that in this day and age we have to pick up arms instead of the ballot to bring change. But one cannot choose his battle. This has been forced upon us. We have waited too long to respond in kind. Once we have started the process our job is to try to make it a short and less costly endeavor. Our responsibility is to encourage, support in any way possible and push our family, friends and the international community to stand with us at this time of great need.
We salute the combatants of GPF for their sacrifice on our behalf. We want them to know they are in our hearts and minds every waking moment of our life. We promise we will do all that we could in our part to help them achieve the goal of liberating our mother land from the clutches of darkness. Forward with the brave sons and daughters of Ethiopia, we your people in exile raise our hands in salute and shout so all can hear ‘Ethiopia is rising and a new day has begun!!!’ May you march in triumph as your ancestors did thru the millennium.
(USGS) — Based on interpretations of the ancient Mayan calendar, some people are predicting the world will end on December 21, 2012, Others believe that instead of doomsday and destruction, the day will mark a new era for humanity and will be a time for celebration.
Such beliefs aside, what we know with certainty is that Earth has a tremendous capacity to generate natural disasters on any day of any year. For this reason, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists continue to look for ways to better forecast a wide range of natural hazards and protect our communities.
Let’s take a closer look at the state of the science – what we know and what we don’t know – about our ability to forecast natural disasters.
Can We Predict Earthquakes?
Despite claims to the contrary, no reliable short-term earthquake prediction method has ever been developed. Nor do scientists expect to develop a method in the foreseeable future.
However, based on scientific data, probabilities can be calculated for future earthquakes. For example, comprehensive assessments of long-term earthquake rates in California tell us there is roughly a 2-in-3 chance that a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake will strike in the next 30 years in the greater San Francisco Bay Area. Within the state of California as a whole, earthquakes this large are virtually certain (a 99% probability) in that same time frame.
USGS scientists are also working with university colleagues to gather objective and quantitative information on which to base shorter-term earthquake forecasts. This work includes developing better methods to quantify changes in probability based on recent earthquake activity. For example, scientists are looking at the probability for a larger earthquake after an initial earthquake. They are also developing approaches to communicate these probabilities that will be most effective at supporting appropriate decision making.
Signs of Volcanic Unrest
The United States is home to 169 active volcanoes, many of which could erupt at any time. Fortunately, volcanoes generally show signs of unrest hours, weeks and months before they erupt. Changes in gas emissions, swelling of a volcano, and swarms of small earthquakes are signs that a volcano is awakening. All of these changes can be detected with proper monitoring equipment.
The USGS National Volcano Early Warning System is designed to detect these signs of unrest at the earliest stages. The USGS issues warnings and alerts of potential volcanic hazards—including imminent or ongoing eruptions, ash fall forecasts, and when eruptions have ended—to responsible emergency-management authorities and those potentially affected. These warnings prevent episodes of volcanic unrest from becoming volcanic disasters.
Learn more and see current alerts and status for volcanoes in the United States by visiting the USGS Volcano Hazards website.
Landslide Hazard Potential
Landslides occur in all 50 states and pose a significant risk in many areas. Scientists know landslides are likely on the west coast during its rainy season from November to March, during spring and summer thunderstorms in the western mountain states, and during hurricane season along the east coast. People at especially high risk for landslide damage are those living on or below steep hill slopes.
Wildfires can lead to flash flooding and debris flow, as vegetation is removed that would have served as a stabilizing factor and the remaining burned soil is less able to absorb rainwater. Landslides can also occur from earthquakes, volcanic activity, changes in groundwater, or disturbance and change of a slope by man-made construction activities.
USGS scientists produce maps of areas susceptible to landslides and identify what sort of rainfall conditions will lead to such events. The USGS is working with the National Weather Service on a prototype Debris Flow Warning System to help provide forecasts and warnings about what areas are at imminent risk of having a debris flow or mudslide when rainfall thresholds are met.
Tracking Wildfires
Wildfires are a great concern when there is a lack of precipitation, particularly during the summer months when the weather becomes hot and dry. When there is no water, wildfires can spread very quickly and can be hard to control. Climate change and the resulting hotter and arid conditions are expected to significantly increase wildfire frequency and severity.
The USGS plays an integral role in preparing for and responding to wildfires. The USGS provides tools and information before, during and after fire disasters to identify wildfire risks and reduce subsequent hazards. By looking at previous wildfires, scientists can learn more about ignition sources, burn severity, patterns, season of burning, and fire size. The USGS also provides real-time geospatial support for firefighters during the events. This includes up-to-the minute maps and satellite imagery about current wildfire extent and behavior.
Hurricanes, Storms, Floods and More
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November, with September as the peak time when they are most likely to strike. But hurricanes and tropical storms can hit at other times as well.
NOAA is responsible for monitoring and issuing warnings for hurricanes and tropical storms. The USGS works with NOAA and provides information on associated coastal vulnerability and change. Before, during and after these events, the USGS assesses the likelihood of beach erosion, overwash, or inundation. Scientists also measure storm surge and monitor water levels of inland rivers and streams.
Flooding from storms is another concern, as is drought from lack of rainfall. The USGS conducts real-time monitoring of the nation’s rivers and streams, and you can visit USGS WaterWatch to see whether river levels are higher or lower than normal. You can also use USGS WaterAlert to receive texts or emails when water levels at a specific streamgage exceed certain thresholds. The National Weather Service relies on timely and accurate USGS data to issue flood warnings, and the partnership between the two agencies runs deep. Together, the USGS, the National Weather Service and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers are also developing flood inundation maps that show, street by street, block by block, and hour by hour exactly where the flood waters will be.
Monitoring Magnetic Storms
What is a magnetic storm? The sun is always emitting a wind of electrically charged particles that flows outward into space. If these concentrations of solar wind are directed towards the Earth, then the magnetic field of the Earth in space (the magnetosphere) can be disturbed, sometimes for days.
Large magnetic storms can cause loss of radio communication, affect global-positioning systems, damage satellite electronics and cause electrical blackouts. Damaging storms occur about 4 times a decade, with smaller events occurring more frequently. Magnetic storms can be detected up to 2 days in advance by monitoring the sun. They come in all sizes, but the largest storms tend to occur when sunspots (concentrations of magnetic energy on the surface of the sun) are most numerous.
The monitoring of “space weather” conditions is a responsibility of several U.S. government agencies, including NOAA, NASA, and the U.S. Air Force. The USGS has the unique responsibility of monitoring geomagnetic activity at the Earth’s surface, close to where most of the effects of magnetic storms are actually realized. Learn more and view near-real time conditions of the magnetic field.
Be Prepared, Every Day
The question to consider on December 21, 2012, and every day is: Have I done everything I can to ensure that my family and I are prepared, should a disaster strike? This includes preparing and practicing your emergency plan and building a disaster supplies kit with food, water and basic needs. Natural disasters will continue to occur, on any given day, but a more informed scientific understanding can lead to better preparedness and safer communities.
