Ethiopian Review Editorial
Woyanne is currently engaged in a shooting war on multiple fronts. The worst fighting is going on in Ogaden with ONLF and in neighboring Somalia with the Islamic Courts Union (ICU). The news coming from these fronts are encouraging — the Woyanne military is getting its nose bloodied by the ICU and the ONLF freedom fighters. Woyanne is now about to open another front in the north — Badme. Woyanne and Shabia are amassing hundreds of thousands of troops in the area. According to various sources, a major war could start any time. The question for Ethiopians, particularly those of us who wish to see a united Ethiopia free from the Woyanne tribal junta, is what should be our stand?
There are two options:
1) Do not take side in the absolutely senseless war, or
2) Take an active stand against Woyanne by helping Eritrean, ONLF, OLF, and all the other anti-Woyanne forces. An active stand against Woyanne includes agitating troops not to fight, causing damages to Woyanne supply lines, etc. Blockading the road from Addis Ababa to Tigray alone would cripple the Woyanne military machine.
Ethiopian Review encourages the second option. Here is why:
1) Woyanne is the real enemy of Ethiopia that has left us land-locked. On top of that, it has been committing one atrocity after another against the people of Ethiopia for the past 17 years. In several parts of Ethiopia, such as Ogaden and Gambella, Woyanne forces annihilated whole villages of people. What is going on currently in Ogaden is a genocide by any standard. Not looking at the pictures of dead women and children whose heads are splattered by high caliber bullets from Woyanne helicopter gunships, whose bodies pulverized by Woyanne rockets does not lessen the horror of Woyanne atrocities. Woyanne must be stopped from carrying out these atrocities by any means necessary.
2) It is not the Eritrean regime, not the ONLF, not the OLF, not the ICU that had thrown over 100,000 Ethiopians in Zeway, Shoa Robit, Donkoro Chaka and other disease-infested concentration camps after stealing the May 2005 elections. It is Woyanne that ignored the will of the people and enslaved 70 million Ethiopians through its blood thirsty military machine that is currently busy wreaking havoc in Ogaden and Somalia. Woyanne has no mandate to govern Ethiopia, has no right to enslave us and must be removed by any means necessary.
3) As Woyanne moneyman Sebhat Nega himself said a few months ago on a Woyanne radio station, Woyanne has done more than Shabia for the separation of Eritrea from Ethiopia, leaving 70 million people landlocked. Notwithstanding the Woyanne propaganda, the impending Woyanne-Shabia war does not advance the national interest of Ethiopia an iota. It is war over a small plot of land that has no strategic significance for Ethiopia. It is a war that is intended to divert attention from Woyanne’s internal political crisis and the Somalia quagmire. Ethiopia can get back her sea outlet through a negotiated, mutually beneficial settlement with Eritreans. The only obstacle to such a negotiated settlement with Eritreans is the illegitimate Woyanne regime. For this reason alone, Ethiopian pro-unity forces need to help Shabia defeat Woyanne.
Let’s ignore the Woyanne propaganda for a moment and be frank with each other. Which is the lesser evil? Shabia or Woyanne? Both are brutal dictators, but who is currently tormenting Ethiopians? Both will not bring democracy to Ethiopia, but whose defeat will present an opportunity for change in Ethiopia?
If Woyanne wins against Shabia and all its opponents, for the people of Ethiopia it would mean more slavery at the hands of an emboldened Woyanne. If Shabia wins, it would mean no more Woyanne’s brutal rule. The best case scenario is for Shabia to break the backbone of Woyanne, which will force it to:
1) Immediately pull out of Somalia,
2) Pull its forces out of Ogaden, Oromia, and other regions of Ethiopia and rush them to Tigray to protect its base of power,
3) Seek reconciliation with Ethiopian opposition forces.
The most likely outcome
If Woyanne starts war with Shabia, this time it will lose for the following reasons:
1) Those troops who are not hardcore members of Woyanne will not fight the way they did in the 1998-2000 war. They will surrender or put down their weapons and run to Sudan. Even better, they could turn their guns against Woyanne officers.
2) Shabia will not engage Woyanne in a conventional battle of troops against troops, and thanks against thanks this time. What Shabia will do is let Woyanne come deep into the Eritrean territory, even all the way to Asmara. Then engage Woyanne’s over-stretched military in a protracted, guerrilla style warfare. With a well-coordinated propaganda campaign, most non-Tigrean soldiers could desert in massive numbers. Even Tigreans who are not hard core Woyannes would hesitate to fight. After all, what did Woyanne bring to the people of Tigray except more suffering, more war, more repression, and more poverty? Most of the developments in Tigray are benefiting only Woyanne members who are not more than 200,000 Tigreans. By all accounts, the 7 million Tigreans have not benefited from the Woyanne rule what so ever.
Most dictatorships have terrible ends. Hitler, Mussolini, Saddam, Chauchesku, Charles Taylor, to mention a few. With the way things are going on in Somalia, Woyanne’s end is already becoming messy, ugly and horrifying.
142 thoughts on “Woyanne-Shabia conflict: The defeat of Woyanne means victory for Ethiopia”
Elias, I do not agree with your explanation or analysis because OLF, ONLF, UIC, Shabia and other armed struggle oppositions want to distruct as a hole Ethiopia. I agree with your explanation only to remove the Woyane regime from Ethiopians shoulder once for all with organized struggle. Shabia do not want Ethiopia stand as strong country in the East of Africa. I do not like war as a whole as solution for Ethiopia. The above mentioned armed struggle opposition groups want to dissintigrate Ethiopia in Millions small village. I know the Woyane regime has been distructing Ethiopia since 1991 but if wish the defeat of Woyane against Shabia means you would not get the orginal Ethiopia for ever.
I completely agree with you regarding Woyane and the TPLF thugs being the mortal enemy of Ethiopia and Ethiopians. As you said, TPLF and its thugs have shown us beyond any shadow of a doubt of their utmost hatred, enmity, and distractive nature. Recent interviews of Mellesse and Sebhat are few more tangible evidences. However, I don’t agree with you regarding supporting EPLF/Shabia at all. No!!!! We Ethiopians should never forget that:-
1. Issayas was the one who created, nurtured, and supported Mellesse/TPLF all the way to Arat Kilo.
2. Issayas was the one who crafted, developed, and supported ethnic movements in Ethiopia (starting from TPLF). We don’t forget what Issayas did to Ethiopian patriots in EPPF.
3. Issayas’ statement of “100 years of home work for Ethiopians to fight amongst themselves”.
4. Issayas and Mellesse who fought and still fighting Ethiopia and the Ethiopian identify.
Supporting any one of them is not in the best interest of our country. Who ever wins Ethiopia will loss and might be divided into five weak nations. The only difference between the two being if Mellesse wins he will set up his “greater Tigray”. There is no guarantee for Ethiopia to exist as a nation. Mellesse (TPLF) and Issays (EPLF) are the two sides of the same coin. They are no good for Ethiopia and Ethiopians and we should NEVER, EVER support any one of them. I will go for option 3. Let these two monsters slug it off. Ethiopians should not be party to this.
Dear Elias:
In the first place I would like to register my strong opposition to this war. This war does not benefit Ethiopia. There is no reason why our young brothers and sisters would sacrifice their life for crazy wars.
Reading your comment on the situation in Northern Ethiopia I have decided to express my disagreement to what you wrote.
You presented two scenarios. The first scenario is the scenario where teh victory would go to the EPRDF. That may surely embolden the regime and extend their grip of power in Ethiopia. The status quo where democratic rights are violated and the law is not ruling will continue. No want want an embolden dictatorial regime.
The second scenario is the victory of Shabia. (by victory of Shabia I meant the failure of the EPRDF to win the war and detain ato Issayas in less than a month). This scenario will surely lead to the disentegration of Ethiopia as we know it. With the EPRDF dominated security forces defeated, I cannot see who will maintain law and order in the country ? War lordism will be certainly established. ONLF will rule Ogaden, OLF will dominate western Wellega, remnants of TPLF will stay in Tigray ..imagine the chaos.
The victory of EPRDF may not be a good thing. However the victory of Shabia will be the worst that can happen to Ethiopia. Remember EPRDF is where it is now because of Shabia. Shabia has been the greast distabilizor of Ethiopian and the regime). Besides, Shabia is currently brutally oppressing our Ethiopians brothers(i.e Eritreans).
Then what shall we do ? All Ethiopians must understand that whoever the victorious of the war may be the outcomes are bad for Ethiopia. There are no good options exceopt one. The option of struggling to avert the war. Therefore we must fight not to see another war. A war with Eritrea does not benefit at all Ethiopia.It does not benefit the EPRDF, Shabia, Ethiopians north and south of Mereb.
This war wouod be a war between brothers. let us sayn NO to the war. let us say no to any war.
Girma Kassa
[email protected]
I understand how much you hate woyanie, we all do. but what is going to be happen if shabia win the war. i don’t think they will clean the road for democracy. i think they will make our life more miserable. because ,i don’t think they love Ethiopia at begin with. anyway everything is for good reason. we all don’t know how God works with Ethiopians, he is always next to us somehow and someway.
I would not add a thing to what you wrote. Well written!!!.
You got it right what woyane is trying to do is to run away from its internal problems by making the eritreans the enemies again. This time the Ethiopian people will not be played again. Already, some woyane soliders are deserting, even Tigrayans. If You want this bloodthirsty woyanes to rule Ethiopia forever, then support them.
I have read so many responses from pro-bloody woyanes as well as true citizens of Ethiopia.
All hardwares and techinologies can not would not enslave free people who rise up against tyrants.
As far as Eritrean people, no question they won’t march to Badime with roses to welcome bloody woyanes- if you believe this for a second, wake up Ethiopians Eritreans would unleash the mothers of all hell on invaders. This would bring as to view littered body parts all over badime by all major news out lets for some times.
Suppose the woyanes enter Asmara in three days after losing another 100 thousands little boys, still litters of boobies and traps which hack them throughout.
Eritrea has many competent pilots who could bomb any village in around mekelle, each day for 6 months. Their flights can be from any direction and swift, trust me.
The Eppf and the rest Ethiopians who voluntarily joined Eritrea would be armed and sent from 8 directions which woyane by this time is circling 360 degrees like chicken without its head.
Many responders with pessimism think freedom is free and would want to sit and wait untill Eritrea hands them! That is our stupidity reflective. Ethiopians must revolt all over
coinciding with the war. Group and regroup to take wise revolution to take power back by any means possible.
As the saying goes untill broken no need of fixing, when start cracking take hammer, and crack down the walls of tyrany.
If solamali women and children can do it what happen to brave sons of Ethiopia? Removing tyrants out of their holes is noble measure all true sons of Ethiopia need to partake at all levels.
Peaceful means you believe in would repeat exactly what Musharef is doing to his opposition.
You know I really admire your writting today. The number one enemy is woyane. Woyane wants to dismantle Ethiopia and create a “Greater Tigray”, Please my fellow Ethiopians do not be fooled. Woyanes are evil and if we all Ethiopians unite, they will fall. The Eritreans never said we can not use their ports, but Woyane will use all the excuses it can create to make war, because from now on, they have to have a reason to stay in power either by creating war with neighboors or ONLF, OLF,…Otherwise, they will fall. Their end is not far. You now from now on they will not hold elections, if they do this time they will lose again in a landslide. So please, my people let us not be fooled again.
Elias,
This is going to be a war against evil forces who murdered innocent civilians from Addis all the way to Mogadishu! It will be a war against forces who terrorize, blackmail, torture, kill innocent children and women! a war against forces of lie, greed and betrayal! a war against evils who have no accountability for 100,000 the death of their fellow country men! a war against evils who lost their soul for $$.
Well, the good news is that evil forces always lose and the truth will prevail!
Elias,
With all due respect I beg to differ on this issue!
እሊያስ በዚህ ጉዳይ በምንም አይነት አልስማማም ምክንያቱም ምንም እንኩዋን መለስን እንዲወድም ብንፈልግም ቅሉ እሳያስም ኮሎኒያሊስቶች ያልቻሉትን ክፍተት ፈልጎ የመለስ ሳያንስ እንደገና ኢትዮጵያውያን እንዲገዙ አልመኝም :: መሆን ያለበት ኢትዮጵያውያን ከመቸውም በላይ ተባብረን ሁለቱንም የተረገሙ ሰዎች ማስወገድ ነው:: መዋጋቱ የሁለቱንም ደሃ ህዝብ ይፈጃል እንጂ ትርፍ አያስኝም ስለዚህ መበርታት ያለብን በመለስ እና በኢሳያስን ላይ ብቻ መሆን አለበት ህዝቡ አይለቅ::
Elias, I strongly disagree with you on this subject. I say that the war with Eritrea should not take place at all. The ONLF problem should be resolved through negotation. No conflict should take place with any of the other groups you mentioned. If Woyane is defeated in these conflicts it will make sure that Ethiopia is in chaos before woyane leaves the scene(Ene kemotku serdo Ayebekel). I believe the complex problem of Ethiopia will be resolved when we have a government that comes to power in a peaceful way. We need leaders who are chosen by the people. Leaders who got there with gun will alwas try to solve their problem with gun. But leaders who are elected through peaceful manner will solve their problems in a peaceful and cevilized manner.
Woyane will not reclaim Ethiopia’s access to the sea by capturing Assab. Meles has told us this over and over again. So what is the point of supporting his child killer army? I want to see “Agazi” slaughterd in the palace!
Dear ER
Of course, it is very unfortunate that Ethiopia is in the hands of treasonous and betrayal Woyane, and confronting and engaged in unnecessary war. But do you (ER) think Eritrea and Somalia needs to see a peaceful, democratic and developed Ethiopia. I don’t think Shabia, SOMALIA or ONLF are liberators of Ethiopian people, rather they need a fallen Ethiopia. We must fight woyane to get our freedom by ourselves not by Shabian or Somalian. We can oppose the war, but it is not good idea to have a wish that Shabia and Somalia to win Ethiopian military, in other words we don’t want Ethiopia to be in the hands of Eritrea/ Somalia.
if woyane goes war with eritrea or not its time is up. tplf commited massacre so awfully that pple who know about it will not forget.for the victims and the handfull of survivors it is 17 years of massacre with out mercy in all parts of ethiopia{ogaden,amhara.oromia,afar,sidamo}.
it is delibrate,planned and overseen internatinally.but the perpetrators have gone unpanished{zenawi}.
to EGNA my brother do u think TPLF cares about peace and dialogue after 17 years some of my fellow ethiopians dreaming plz wake up 2 the reality.
no matter what,i rather suport the evil i know than the evil i don’t know.i believe internal matters will be resolved from within in due time,but supporting anti ethiopian elements like shabia, onlf and olf will be the greatest blunder ethiopians can commit.woyane will not stay in power forever.governments will come and go,but ethiopianism will live forever.
My fellow Ethiopians, first and for most I would like to commend my brother Elias for saying the necked truth this timely issue. I absolutely agree with Elias analysis. Weyane can not fool us time and time again. They have demonestrated from the day they came to power until this day that they are not Ethiopians and they do’t give a hoot about Ethiopia and its children. There is no vivid example than murdering inocent women and children and imprisoning our elected officials. Never in our three thousand history, that any ruler devided our country us the weyane did. There is no tribe or ethinic group be may the OLF or the ONLF or others that wants Ethiopia to disintigrate. Even the Eritreans have no interest Ethiopia to be devided. The only people that wants Ethiopia to be devided are the woyane. Unless they stay in power and loot its wealth and use abuse and misuse our people. Eventhough I completly agree with the analysis of Elias, I still do not believe they will open war with shabiya. My reason is that, they know that our people is not going to be foolled this time again and even the Tigray people is not with them. Ever since they came they helped no body except themselves and thier handfull cadres. There fore eventhough thier days are numbered another war front will make thier stay in power less numbered. We the children of Ethiopia the God fearing people can and will be living peacefully side by side with the Sumalis, Eritreans, Sudanis and the Jubutis and for that matter ony one who does not wish us any ill. Having said that every thing is possible even with shabia. Therefore the enemy is weyane and weyane have to go by any means necessary.
Weyane days are numbered and Ethiopia will be victorios us always.
I have almost read 95% of the comments. My observation is that almost all of the participants here seem to agree on one thing: Ethiopia without Weyane would be an ideal scenario for democracy. Nevertheless, their take on how to achieve that goal is so diverse. Some advance a peaceful struggle, others choose a violent way through liberation fronts, and other extreme groups contemplate the idea of Eri-Ethiopia war with mixed emotions – wanting the demise of Weyane while dreading a possible victory for Shabiya. The latter group is the most dishonest people. Deep down they know it is only Shabiya which has the means to uproot Weyane, but they never want to entertain or relish that idea due to their extreme hatred and feeling towards Eritrea. There may be other group who are totally against Elias’s idea – these are Weyane supporters.
My take:
WHY WAR? Why do we sentence thousands of poor people to death? Why don’t we bury our pride? Be for a minute in the position of parents whose sons are in the war fronts. How would you feel mentally and emotionally with the thought that your son is about to go for war and possibly never come back again? Imagine you are the very soldier who is digging and strengthening his trench to make himsefl ready for an imminent war. What would you say to all those people who have given their comments above?
Dear All,
PLEASE PLEASE HAVE MERCY FOR THESE POOR SOULS!
no help to woyane who r egoist …we helped them enough for the sake of unity .But at the end of the day we understand that a snake is always a snake,thats why they forgot everything and they put us in jails..in ziway and other places.They shade bloood for nothing of the true ethiopians who manifested for their rights .So they couldnt fool us again …so live them alone to wash their hands …blood .BEDEHNA GIZYE BILA TETA YALALKEW WETAT ..YASEKAYEKEW WETAT GER TEWERALECHNA ZIMET TILEWALEH ENDYE…..ANIRESAWM
Thank you Elias for speaking the truth and having the right vision.
If the minority tplf war mongering dictator wins the war against Eritrea and the other opposition forces the slavery of Ethiopians will only become permanent. We will be forced to swallow the bitter pills of minority dictator’s dynasty and will always be ruled by gun alone. We will be permanently dispersed just like the former Armenians and live the hopeless refugee lives leaving vibrant and great Ethiopia behind and sinking to the bottom of the drain. Believe me folks it will not be the Eritreans who will suffer from the defeat because international law and other international rules will always protect even a defeated nation but no body on earth will come to protect the wretched Ethiopians from the genocidal tplf dictatorship.
Besides, having chaotic Somalia and chaotic Eritrea submerging in to warfare and violence with the Wayane war loving suicidal gang active intervention will just bring home to Ethiopia the tragedies of Iraq and Afghanistan where we may not even have any viable country called Ethiopia anymore let alone ” an arena for peaceful struggle.”
We need to be wise, cool and rationally stop the Wayane virus from distroying Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea and the entire horn seemingly for greater Tigrai,but may instead commite suicide on itself and on Ethiopia too.
Let us not listen to payed Wayane cadres and propaganda workers advocating directly and indirectly for the establishments of Greater East African Tigrian emppire.
weyane is the enemy of all eritrean and ethiopians so wehave to unite agianst dictater meles
You the hate monger,
I wonder how stupid and lazy editor you are and believe me you will never see your dreams happen!
Only Tigrians are enough for shabia and don’t forget all the heroic missions of TPLF against Amhara regim before 16 years.
Long live Meles and Weyane!
If the war starts between Eritrea and Woyanne we Ethiopians should not support our killers the Woyannes.The worst cancer for Ethiopia is TPLF and its members not Eritreans.Who can forget that this Woyanne army had killed hundreds and imprisoned about 100000 Ethiopians after TPLF lost the 2005 election.Let only woyanne and its followers fight this war, it is non of other Ethiopians’ business.This war can break the back bone of TPLF for good.
Elias,
well said!! But we need to get rid of both dictators. We should get rid of Weyane per Bullet and rid of Eritrean dictators per Ballot. The current CANCER of the Horn is Weyane, which must be removed radically by coordinated struggle of all nations in the Horn (Oromians, Agew-amharas, Afar-sahos, Somalis, Eritreans, Sidamas and others). In the coming war we all need to support Eritrean Army to crush the CANCER of the region.
After getting rid of the CANCER, we all turn to support Eritrean people to get rid of its dictatorial system. Isayas must open the door for democracy which he now hindered because of the No-war-no-peace situation with the CANCER of the region. Surely he will do it for he will be free from fear of attack from the CANCER in case of Eritrean destabilization in the election and democratization process.
Elias , my apperciation for good observation and political analysis from all direcions and i respect it, but we, ethiopians are capable of toppling weyanes from our country and get our freedom with out any other assistance if we are struggling coordinatelly by creating a united front. Shabia has never been thinking good thing for ethiopia. what is very intersting for me, issayas’s mother and father were from tegeray both, where as eritreans like sebhatu ,berket simon and even melese are from eritrea. now begeza daboye lebelebun atahute essayas became the leader the poorest nation on earth ,where as eritreans became the richest nation on earth.God bless ethiopia and down with weyanes . amen
The horn of Africa is kind of a mess…Eritrea’s economy is messed up and the people are suffering. Ethiopian government(Woyanne) has very little support and are on all fronts. Somalia is in anarchy and Ethiopia is on the brink of losing. And who knows about Djibouti. Maybe they are doing well who knows…
Mr. Elias, this is not a sport event. Defeat to any side means a lot of lives lost. If defeat means loss of lives I do not wish defeat to any of the parties involved. I honestly do not wish death for any Ethiopian, Eritrean or Somali. Life is so sacred. The death of one soldier has a larger consequence than we are thinking. Think of the children, parents and wives of a fallen soldier on any side. Don’t you think that they deserve to enjoy life with their loved ones, like the rest of us. Don’t you think these soldiers have dreams and aspirations. Isn’t it sad that these dreams are cut short because of Meles and Afeworki. I am sure our judgment would be different if one of our loved ones was among them. May God Help us.
From Eritrean point of view it is nice to see many Ethiopians finding out the root cause of their problems that’s woyane. As to the question of who to support incase war starts; you just need to support your case and no one else.
A struggle without legitimate case is a worthless one because it can’t stand bad weather. So if Ethiopians think they have a legitimate struggle, they should see beyond the enemies military and propaganda force and trust their people and their case. Eritrea and its existence is a true example of that experience I must add.
I don’t have any problem agreeing with Elias’s excellent analysis.
As I have said it on several occasions, Meles the evil will never step down from power by peaceful solution, never and ever.
Meles, Berket, Sehat-Nega have said it several times, they want to destroy Ethiopia and its culture, annihilate specially the Amhars and rule Ethiopia for a thousand years. This is their wishes. So, why not agreeing with Elias’s one of the true sons of Ethiopia analysis?
NO. 45 ABIYS’S excellent observation on the ground in case of war between the woyanne forces and our Eritrea’s brothers and sisters is something we should take it seriously.
Woyanne is on the list of the US state department to get free second hand equipment or to by it with highly discounted prices. This means they can sustain the war even if only woyanne fighters engaged on the front line.
You and me know it, when it comes down to war there is no difference between Ras Alula and Atse Thewodros, you know what I mean? So, with the help of America they can sustain the potential war indefinitely until the heated Issayas steps down from power.
What I am afraid is Eritrean economy will never stand another war with woyanne and the US. And the Arab nation will be told not to help the terrorist Issayas. If you like it or not, the US must have given its approval to woyanne to get rid of Issayas, as they did in Somalia. If not Meles the dog will never go to war with his own decision.
However, it is always difficult to predict the outcome of a war.
Elias:
There are two fallacies in your Editorial. If the security and armed forces of the EPDRF/Woyane government disintegrate following a defeat by Eritrea, there is no guarantee the void will be filled by any group that belives in a united Ethiopia. Different regions will be taken over by regional “liberation fronts” or warlords just the way Somalia has been. The ONLF and OLF are in the best position to fulfil their dreams.
The second fallacy is in your shallow and lunatic analysis is that the Eritrean regime wants a united Ethiopia. No, it does not. The pattern of its involvement in the last two decades has been asssting separatist movements or cropping thm up where they do not exist.
It has laid the ground work to weaken Ethiopia once and for all. ONLF, OLF, GLF, BLF, EEPF, ICU and many others are on the ready to move in and create havoc if the central government is weak in Ethiopia. Unarmed groups such as CUD will not be a position to counter such elements.
Your editorial has proved something to me. You are so filled with hate, you will burn the house you are in as long as it also takes with you the group you hate.
I will see if you will post this……..
Hi Elias, I support your analysis. We should support any force who weaken the Woyanes. If we support the Woyanes and they win, you what happens next. They will put a puppet government in Eritrea and use Eritrean troops (together with the Agazi) to enslave Ethiopians for another 20 years.
Watch out brothers.
Elias,
I generally agree with everything you say but this topic. I really believe you have not thought out this scenario. Yes we all want Woyane out of power. We hate Woyane because of its failure to protect our sovereignty to our liking and expectation. Your formula only guarantees our biggest fears. That is that our nation fall into the hands of Shabia, OLF and ONLF. That would be the end of Ethiopia for sure.
thanks
Elias, your analysis seems to me wrong this time. the Esaias regime would not succed as guriella fighters or insurgents like what is going on in Iraq and somalia. this is because
1. The eritrean people are tired of isayas\shaebia
2. suicide attack is not known in earitrean people or army
3. Shaebia does’t have that strong financial and economic strength for long lasting cournter attack
4. strong US intellengece and ammunation support is at woyannes hand.
5 since eritrean and ethiopian people are almost the same in identity, it would be a great help for woyane for intellegence work if shabia turns to be guriella
Although I don’t support woyane, I am sure Woyane will win this war and as the implication of this is clear woyane will get very strong in side ethiopia and its repressive rule will continue along with its pseudo/show-democracy until a major historical phenomenon will happen at interantional or national level and ends woyanes era.
I like this article, this is what I have been saying for these years. Who knows this could be a conspiracy to create chaos which last for very long time so before the dust settled Meles and his cohorts would escape. Some Ethiopians who have not been victims think after Meles unity would be easily posible. The damage had been done while either some of us were part of it or supported in anyway. Look what had happen in Gambella in December 2003when Ethiopian citizens were killed in the day light. Where were those who are today talking about unity but not about what could have been done to protect the Anuaks? The next united Ethiopia could only happen if we start open talking about the new direction for Ethiopia. I do see the posibility of forming the united Ethiopia under a new name or after each region has gone in its own way we could sit down as equal partners and write the terms of unity otherwise forget about the unity. By the way let me ask evry one this question who would benefit the next unity? If unity killed Gambellians, Oromos, Sidamas, Ogadenians, Afars and Beneshaguls under Derg and TPLF what do you think another unity would have for these people? We better acept the fact “all empires” end is the same, desentegration. It was the matter of breaking the zero before Eritera goes and now after counting one who could stop the counting? There would be two, three, four, five, six and seven and it is only then the states I mentioned would be in peace. The idea of not supporting Eritera becuse the liberation fronts would benefit is a slavery mentality. If we are serious about defeating the TPLF it is time to do it.The liberation fronts have political goals but Ethiopians who wanted unity by any cost don’t want to hear that, but untill they acknowledge that there is a problem and wanted to discuss it openly, they will be sorry.
Dear Editor,
Supporting Essayas against Meles means nothing more that opting for even worse psychopath and dictator. Do you honestly think that the OLFs and the ONLS are healthy political forces? I don’t think so. Who ever run to the mountain with arms lucks persuasive power and short of the political gut for peaceful movement.
The Third Option
Oppose the war, do not help Eritreans let the Eritreans defend themselves, let Oromo and Amara refuse to join the ‘Ethiopian Army’ which is recruited and paid by foreigners who do not have the interest of the Ethiopian or Eritrean peoples. Because many Ethiopians do not know their true history they are always mislead by any dictator to drag them from one war in Somalia to anothe war in Eritrea and may be tomorrow with Kenya, Sudan and Djibuti. Eritreans and Somalis are the true blood brothers and sisters of Ethiopians, they have fought together for true independence against foreign enemies and their local recruits who put their country and people for sale. Isayas is the present Tewodros of our region and time. Let us not repeat the same mistake that King Yohannis and King Teklehaimanot did aginst Emperor Tewodros of Ethiopia at Mekdela. Supporting a war to remove President Isayas will not be in the interest of Eritrean or Ethiopian people, no matter how the enemieys of the people sugarcoated their action. Let us learn from our history and not repeat them. For those who want to see a sea port for Ethiopia, they had always a free port as long as Eritrean were in charge of their country, and not when Turkish, Italians and British ocupay Eritrea. And for those who are woried about Ethiopian Unity, Eritrean have always supported Ethiopian Unity and for that they have a historical fact to prove it. Long live the true fraternity of the Ethiopian and Eritrean People and down with those that creat enemity among the various nationalities of the region.
It really is a good analyze, because of the simple reason that the Ethiopian people have tried their best to bring T.P.L.F. to its sense and think for the better of the entire country and introduce productive political system to no avail. The only supper power has no desire to respect human rights or democracy in other parts of the world instead they are after weak, brutal and corrupted leaders whom they can use for the superpower’s purposes. The only chance they will notice us is when they realize that we are ready to fight for our right.
As to the question who to support incase the war starts. Well, with or without our support the war will still commence and to support a brutal dictator that slaughtered youngsters in a broad daylight is not an option at all. We should support all the armed struggles if our agony is to be gone. As to the unity of the country, no region can get independence without the full acceptance of an Ethiopian government. So the chance that they will get independence is none existent.
Are you guys insane to promote the defeat of Ethiopia by Eritrea? are you so hungry for power that you need to go to any extent to even think of what you wrote? Are you so naive to think that Eritrea will negotiate its ports to you. How dare you sit in the diaspora and even think of deciding the fates of us Ethiopians who live in Ethiopia. Who are you? what did you do to alleviate Ethiopia’s poverty? apart from sowing hate?what kind of employement opportunities did you create for Ethiopians in Ethiopia recently? Are you even aware of the realities in Ethiopia? How can there be a united Ethiopia if OLF, ONLF etc get what they want? You are not democratic, you alienate people who support other ideas, what makes you think you and those you support will not be dictators. Dictatorship starts when you alienate people that have different ideas. You are Dicatators! You are very very ethinic biased and you certainly lack maturity.I will be very surprised if you post this opinion. Please surprise me.
I support Almaz.
“Almaz Kifle says:
Elias:
There are two fallacies in your Editorial. If the security and armed forces of the EPDRF/Woyane government disintegrate following a defeat by Eritrea, there is no guarantee the void will be filled by any group that belives in a united Ethiopia. Different regions will be taken over by regional “liberation fronts” or warlords just the way Somalia has been. The ONLF and OLF are in the best position to fulfil their dreams.
The second fallacy is in your shallow and lunatic analysis is that the Eritrean regime wants a united Ethiopia. No, it does not. The pattern of its involvement in the last two decades has been asssting separatist movements or cropping thm up where they do not exist.
It has laid the ground work to weaken Ethiopia once and for all. ONLF, OLF, GLF, BLF, EEPF, ICU and many others are on the ready to move in and create havoc if the central government is weak in Ethiopia. Unarmed groups such as CUD will not be a position to counter such elements.
Your editorial has proved something to me. You are so filled with hate, you will burn the house you are in as long as it also takes with you the group you hate.
Well you wish. Woyane is gonna win every fight and you are gonna be sad. Becuase there is a diffrence between fighting and talking. You guys are good at the latter.
Hi,elias I support your analysis. We should support any armed force who defeated woyanes,otherwise they will have two secret prison one in Asmara& Mogadishu
I agree in all the points you list of things TPLF did, nothing you fabricated. I believe TPLF number one enemy of Ethiopia because of them Ethiopia lost so many things. However, under no circumstance I support the natural enemy of Ethiopia, Shabia. Are you crazy? If I have one bullet and someone ask me who I want to kill with that bullet I will kill Melese that I assure you. As I said above supporting Isayas in any way or means is not a right way wining TPLF. Isyase and the core Eritreans want the weak and divide Ethiopia. We should stand together all Ethiopian who believe united Ethiopia and fight Melese. We will win without Eritrean involvement. I don’t trust or have no affiliation with Eritrean when it comes to Ethiopian issue.
Human waves fall as war aims unfold
Written by David Hirst
SATURDAY, 10 NOVEMBER 2007 (FLASBACK)
Tuesday May 18, 1999 – Ethiopia’s Tigrayan-dominated regime wants a path to the sea – through neighbouring Eritrea
‘The essence of democracy is majority rule,’ said a former ambassador to Addis Ababa. ‘But here we have 4 million Tigrayans lording it over 18 million Amharans, and 20 million Oromos – always the most oppressed.’
Six weeks after the battle of Tsorona, the bloodiest yet of this desert ‘border’ war, Ethiopian soldiers still lie unburied on the baking plain, just yards from Eritrean trenches; an occasional breeze, otherwise welcome, brings only the stench of decomposition.
A fifth of Eritrean combatants are women. ‘I was born in Addis Ababa [the Ethiopian capital],’ said Agib Haile, 21. ‘Ethiopians are my friends. I love them so much. It was horrible.’
The horror, it seems, was less in what Eritreans themselves suffered – though she lost her closest friend – than in what they inflicted on the enemy.
The Ethiopian commanders’ strategy was simple. Deploying tens of thousands of barely trained recruits along a 3-mile front, they drove them forward, wave upon wave, with the sole mission of blowing themselves up on minefields until they had cleared a path to the Eritrean front line for better trained infantry, mechanised forces and armour.
In the third or fourth wave, about 5,000 peasants came with them, their mules and donkeys bearing food and ammunition for an Ethiopian breakthrough.
It didn’t work. The doomed men hardly raised their weapons, but linked hands in a despairing communal solace in the face of certain death from four sources: mines, perfectly aimed artillery, the trenches and their own officers in the rear, who shot them if they turned and ran.
This was the horror of which Ms Haile and her companions spoke, of mowing down the oncoming horde till their Kalashnikovs became too hot to hold, their fingers raw from unclipping grenades.
Hidden agenda emerges
It is not really a ‘border’ war at all. Eritreans have long suspected a broader ‘hidden agenda’. The evidence for at least a steadily unfolding incremental agenda grows increasingly plausible. The chief impulse behind it is Tigrayan ethno-regional nationalism: the attempt of a small component of the multi-ethnic Ethiopian state to assert itself, at the expense not only of neighbouring Eritrea but all other nationalities inside it.
Eritreans and Tigrayans together brought down the Ethiopian Marxist-Leninist dictatorship of Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991. The Eritreans opted for their long-cherished goal of secession. The Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) seized power in Addis Ababa.
But that decision to stay within the Ethiopian polity was at odds with the goal of Eritrean-style independence that the TPLF had long proclaimed. It never formally repudiated its 1976 ‘independence’ manifesto, under which Tigray was to have access to the sea. Although it was not spelled out, that access could only be via Eritrean territory.
The collapse of the Mengistu regime was so complete that, with Eritrean help, the Tigrayans could take over and dominate the Ethiopian state. They ended the ‘chauvinist’ supremacy of ethnic Amharans through whom the Emperor Haile Selassie and then Mengistu had ruled.
In theory they replaced it with ‘unity based on equality’. In practice their multi-party system, constructed on rigidly ethnic lines, was but a thin democratic facade for a Tigrayan supremacy that was even more extreme than that of the Amharans.
‘The essence of democracy is majority rule,’ said a former ambassador to Addis Ababa. ‘But here we have 4 million Tigrayans lording it over 18 million Amharans, and 20 million Oromos – always the most oppressed.’
Tigrayans dominated the administration, security services, police and army. Bitter memories of Amharan ‘chauvinism’ seemed to pervade and envenom their new sense of mastery.
The Ethiopian state in their hands, they persisted, if surreptitiously, with a Tigrayan agenda. The right of secession was enshrined in the constitution while they diverted state resources to their own people and region, and enlarged Tigray province at the expense of others.
In 1997, when the border troubles with Eritrea began, this marked a new threshold in the unfolding agenda. The TPLF published a new ‘political map’ of Tigray that incorporated some of the territories – Eritrean according to sacrosanct colonial boundaries – over which the two states are now at war.
Though they were allies during their common ‘liberation’ struggle, the Tigrayans harbour a traditional animosity towards the Eritreans which came out with crude vehemence in semi-official rhetoric. They accused the Eritreans of looking down on them – which many do.
All-out war looming, Tigrayans mobilised the Ethiopian state on their behalf. The army, overwhelmingly Tigrayan, was vastly enlarged, to some 250,000 men, with the recruitment of other nationalities.
Mengistu’s Amharan generals were released from prison, and Amharan officers re-enlisted. But Tigrayans still furnish 80% of officers; other than as ‘advisers’, there are few Amharans above the rank of captain.
Politically, they adopted the full pan-Ethiopianist discourse, in a so far largely successful attempt to win over the Amharans – many of whom were never reconciled to the loss of Eritrea – as their new allies of convenience.
By the time the war resumed in February, on a larger scale, Tigrayans had begun to speak openly of bringing down the regime of President Isaias Afewerki and replacing it with a ‘transitional government’ drawn from a small dissident group defeated by the president’s followers early in the liberation struggle.
Here, at Tsorona, it was no longer a question of border claims. Tsorona was the natural pathway to the Eritrean capital, Asmara. Prisoners of war say they were given instructions on how to get there. Obviously, with a puppet regime installed in Asmara, the TPLF could have imposed what is probably its maximalist territorial agenda – access to the sea at the port of Assab – while gratifying the pan-Ethiopian irredentism of the Amharans. It would have been a great triumph.
Threat of losing face
But Eritrea, with its superior military skills, has so far foiled such ambitions. Ethiopia’s prime minister, Meles Zenawi, and his TPLF face a dilemma: to retreat with grievous loss of face – within Tigray and the rest of Ethiopia – or pursue the war with the risk of greater setbacks. They still seem bent on the second course.
Nothing illustrates its unsustainability like the horrors of Tsorona. If the conduct of war is a measure of a government’s fitness and ability to rule, then Tsorona is a terrible indictment of the TPLF. It was Oromo peasants it selected as human minesweepers, and Tigrayan officers who shot them from the rear. Yet it showed hardly less contempt for its own people. Local Tigrayan villagers were pressed into that suicidal baggage train, and mainly Tigrayan soldiers died in the tanks that were entrusted to no other nationality.
Not surprisingly, resentments are reported to be deep and growing. It is far easier for Eritrea to exploit the simmering hatreds of oppressed Ethiopian nationalities than for Ethiopia to exploit a discredited, unrepresentative Eritrean opposition. With the supply of arms to Oromos and others, it has apparently begun doing so.
If, under international pressure, the TPLF compromises, it could, Eritreans believe, save itself and Tigrayan ascendancy over the Ethiopian state; if it does not, sooner or later Eritrea is likely once more to act as a catalyst of great upheavals within its giant neighbour.
David Hirst
Source: Guardian Unlimited
We have to be realistic instead of dreaming. You should know that wayane is stronge both poticically and military. Wayane has won a lot of war in Ethiopia history. Wayane is really smart not only talking in washington streets and bla bla bla in DC resturants. They fought and worked hard in Ethiopian. They have made to see big difference in the country.
God Bless Ethiopia
Responding to Micky,Almaz kifle,Mimi,
We have to get rid of woyane soon because of you and other Woyane supporters washing your hand with innocent Ethiopian’s blood. Trust me what goes up to will go down then we will burn all woyane and TPLF alive.
God destoy Woyane and TPLF!!!
“War is a cowardly escape from the problems of peace.” Mann
“Politics is war without bloodshed while war is politics with bloodshed.” Mao
“What difference does it make to the dead, the orphans and the homeless, whether the mad destruction is wrought under the name of totalitarianism or the holy name of liberty or democracy?” M. Gandhi
“Today the real test of power is not capacity to make war but capacity to prevent it.” McCormick
“There never was a good war or a bad peace.” B. Franklin
If the sons and daughters had the leadership in their hand, as we speak, no doubt in all Ethiopians mind, Isaiah Afework, the robber would not open his dirty mouth as much as he had been doing since long time.
Both Shabeya and Woyanne were hatched out of the rotten eggs of Ethiopia’s century old enemies, such as Egypt, Pakistan, and others. Therefore, both Shaebya and Woyanne are the twin enemies of Ethiopia.
If diligently and carefully dig into both Isayas Afework’s and Meles Naziawi’s minds, what we can extract is nothing but poison to destroy Ethiopia. We shall and must destroy them in order to secure our Ethiopia.
What is coming soon is, what is expected to be seen; and of course, both enemies shall definitely meet in the battlefield and butcher each other’s neck until no more bones left to support their serpent’s heads.
It was Shaebay’s agents who infected innocent people with ethnic virus and made our country battle against such criminal epidemics. The individuals who became the members of ONLF and OLF criminal organizations were those gullible individuals who were infected by the virus that Shaebya agents transmitted through a-mouth-to-mouth contact.
We Ethiopians must know that unless we destroy the sources of this epidemic, which is Shaebya, we can’t destroy Woyanne as quickly as possible.
Ethiopians, for the past 50+ years, Shaebya agents while they were sucking the blood Ethiopians and looting the resources of Ethiopia, they were clandestinely spreading all over Ethiopia and across the boarders into neighboring country infecting people with their deadly ethnic viruses. These the living viruses committed untold crime on Ethiopians just to extend their existence.
Who do you think brought HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia???? Think wise and hard, you would never be wrong in your conclusion.
Death to Shaebya!!!
Death to Woyanne!!!
We have two UnELcted Dictators Ethno_facist Cousins from both Sides of tekezea river -What we need is To get rid of both of this War lords and bakrupt their old political view and replace it with Democratic regimes which will resolve the problem in the region once and for all
I propose the Ethiopian army to stop the unjust war which is being waged against our neighboring country Somalia and bring Meles and his gangs to justice and the Eritrean army reverse the direction of the barrel of the gun towards the brutal dictator Isayas instead of their fraternal Ethiopian people, and bring him to the court. Then and only then we could try to build peaceful governments and solve our problems to bring a lasting peace and prosperity to our countries. This way I think we could come to our sensitive issues like the Asab port quest, the fate of our Afar brothers and other minority tribes who live at the border regions and are suffering due to the tension there and solve it in a peaceful manner to bring mutual benefit to us all.
WEGESHAW
Lets Assume Shabya WINS –Mr Kifle Do you Expect Shabya will bring a lasting peaceand a United EThiopia ???////// Thx GOD its only 1% of probability that Shabya Wins Ethiopian defense forces -BUT I asure you Weyanea with the help of US and EU will Circle Eritreans capital Asmara with in less that 72 hrs.As for Esayas Aforki he will run to his former Supporters Arab Countries In that region and will Work against United and STRONg EThioipia for the rest of his life in Exile Until One day Died of heart attack for witnessing Ethiopians Succses and powerfulneess in the region