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Woyanne-Shabia conflict: The defeat of Woyanne means victory for Ethiopia

Posted on , Updated on by Elias Kifle

Ethiopian Review Editorial

Woyanne is currently engaged in a shooting war on multiple fronts. The worst fighting is going on in Ogaden with ONLF and in neighboring Somalia with the Islamic Courts Union (ICU). The news coming from these fronts are encouraging — the Woyanne military is getting its nose bloodied by the ICU and the ONLF freedom fighters. Woyanne is now about to open another front in the north — Badme. Woyanne and Shabia are amassing hundreds of thousands of troops in the area. According to various sources, a major war could start any time. The question for Ethiopians, particularly those of us who wish to see a united Ethiopia free from the Woyanne tribal junta, is what should be our stand?

There are two options:

1) Do not take side in the absolutely senseless war, or

2) Take an active stand against Woyanne by helping Eritrean, ONLF, OLF, and all the other anti-Woyanne forces. An active stand against Woyanne includes agitating troops not to fight, causing damages to Woyanne supply lines, etc. Blockading the road from Addis Ababa to Tigray alone would cripple the Woyanne military machine.

Ethiopian Review encourages the second option. Here is why:

1) Woyanne is the real enemy of Ethiopia that has left us land-locked. On top of that, it has been committing one atrocity after another against the people of Ethiopia for the past 17 years. In several parts of Ethiopia, such as Ogaden and Gambella, Woyanne forces annihilated whole villages of people. What is going on currently in Ogaden is a genocide by any standard. Not looking at the pictures of dead women and children whose heads are splattered by high caliber bullets from Woyanne helicopter gunships, whose bodies pulverized by Woyanne rockets does not lessen the horror of Woyanne atrocities. Woyanne must be stopped from carrying out these atrocities by any means necessary.

2) It is not the Eritrean regime, not the ONLF, not the OLF, not the ICU that had thrown over 100,000 Ethiopians in Zeway, Shoa Robit, Donkoro Chaka and other disease-infested concentration camps after stealing the May 2005 elections. It is Woyanne that ignored the will of the people and enslaved 70 million Ethiopians through its blood thirsty military machine that is currently busy wreaking havoc in Ogaden and Somalia. Woyanne has no mandate to govern Ethiopia, has no right to enslave us and must be removed by any means necessary.

3) As Woyanne moneyman Sebhat Nega himself said a few months ago on a Woyanne radio station, Woyanne has done more than Shabia for the separation of Eritrea from Ethiopia, leaving 70 million people landlocked. Notwithstanding the Woyanne propaganda, the impending Woyanne-Shabia war does not advance the national interest of Ethiopia an iota. It is war over a small plot of land that has no strategic significance for Ethiopia. It is a war that is intended to divert attention from Woyanne’s internal political crisis and the Somalia quagmire. Ethiopia can get back her sea outlet through a negotiated, mutually beneficial settlement with Eritreans. The only obstacle to such a negotiated settlement with Eritreans is the illegitimate Woyanne regime. For this reason alone, Ethiopian pro-unity forces need to help Shabia defeat Woyanne.

Let’s ignore the Woyanne propaganda for a moment and be frank with each other. Which is the lesser evil? Shabia or Woyanne? Both are brutal dictators, but who is currently tormenting Ethiopians? Both will not bring democracy to Ethiopia, but whose defeat will present an opportunity for change in Ethiopia?

If Woyanne wins against Shabia and all its opponents, for the people of Ethiopia it would mean more slavery at the hands of an emboldened Woyanne. If Shabia wins, it would mean no more Woyanne’s brutal rule. The best case scenario is for Shabia to break the backbone of Woyanne, which will force it to:

1) Immediately pull out of Somalia,
2) Pull its forces out of Ogaden, Oromia, and other regions of Ethiopia and rush them to Tigray to protect its base of power,
3) Seek reconciliation with Ethiopian opposition forces.

The most likely outcome

If Woyanne starts war with Shabia, this time it will lose for the following reasons:

1) Those troops who are not hardcore members of Woyanne will not fight the way they did in the 1998-2000 war. They will surrender or put down their weapons and run to Sudan. Even better, they could turn their guns against Woyanne officers.

2) Shabia will not engage Woyanne in a conventional battle of troops against troops, and thanks against thanks this time. What Shabia will do is let Woyanne come deep into the Eritrean territory, even all the way to Asmara. Then engage Woyanne’s over-stretched military in a protracted, guerrilla style warfare. With a well-coordinated propaganda campaign, most non-Tigrean soldiers could desert in massive numbers. Even Tigreans who are not hard core Woyannes would hesitate to fight. After all, what did Woyanne bring to the people of Tigray except more suffering, more war, more repression, and more poverty? Most of the developments in Tigray are benefiting only Woyanne members who are not more than 200,000 Tigreans. By all accounts, the 7 million Tigreans have not benefited from the Woyanne rule what so ever.

Most dictatorships have terrible ends. Hitler, Mussolini, Saddam, Chauchesku, Charles Taylor, to mention a few. With the way things are going on in Somalia, Woyanne’s end is already becoming messy, ugly and horrifying.

142 thoughts on “Woyanne-Shabia conflict: The defeat of Woyanne means victory for Ethiopia”

  3. The enemy of my enemy is my friend – I hope and pray that Eritrea come out victorious and prove the woyane sponsors wrong.

    I also wish the Ethiopian armed opposition coordinates the liberation offensive with the Eritreans. Nothing matters at this point in our history than the defeat and destruction of the Woyane occupier forces. Civil disobedience, protest and other forms of struggle must also be coordinated to bring down this blood thirsy dictator of Ethiopia.

    My christmas wish is to see a liberated Ethiopia from the yoke of tyranny and close this tragic part of our history by dragging the dictator on the streets of Addis – a good beginning for the establishment of the Democratic Republic of Ethiopia!!!

  4. Elias,
    Very good observation and analysis. No matter what we should support who is trying to crush the head of the serpent.

    Death to the Tigrian Tribal war lords!

  5. Dear ethiorivew I am one of your admire but I really do not like it the way you write this report, even we hate woyanne we love Ethiopia, do you think by helping Eritrea or ONLF or OLF which they want separation from the rest of Ethiopia can we get freedom, can we see the original Ethiopia again I do not think so. Please think about it

  6. ER,

    I respect most of your opinions but I strongly disagree with your statement “Take an active stand against Woyanne by helping Eritrean”. This is outrageous! The current Ertirean government (Shabia) is no friend of Ethiopia and for a peacefull co-existence of Ethiopia & Eritrea, both Woyanne & Shabia have to go. We shouldn’t support Woyanne’s war, but we shouldn’t support Shabia in any wa either.

  7. Red Light ,

    It needs a deep analysis ,
    It hard for me to reach such a simple argument .When woyane crosses to Blue Nile ,in 1983 E.C , I was among the people who well come them warmly ,as I was a kid , but now I need a deep thought and reasoning to reach the same argument you said , as it is difficult for me to decide whether the aforementioned groups/countries will be bring peace and equally to Ethiopia or not !

  8. As much as I support all means of struggle against woyane. i hate to see the victory of woyane the econd which is shabya. I don’t want shabya to win against ethiopian soldier. it doesn’t matter who send them to the front but they are Ethiopians. My wish will be when woyane send them to fight to turn around and fight woyane it self but not to loose an inch of ground to woyane sponsor (shabya)

  9. Elias, whether we like it or not, you have spoken the truth!! Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia will only get better without TPLF and the so called EPRDF gang!!! Lets coordinate our effort to remove these mass murderers!!!

  10. I am under the cloud, it is very hard to see a light at the end of the tunnel from all these situations. Synthysizing this all cracks my head. It is not as easy as it looks. What if Eritrea comes out with victory? will Ethiopia get access to sea? What about if ONLF wins, Will there be united Ethiopia? What about Woyane Wins? We will be in hell as usual. It is a question of various varient. It needs to resolve each and single issue into componants and analyse accordingly. Realities and emotion don’t go together.

  11. Why are we fighting such a futile war all over again??? We have already won this war!! Are we capable of changing Isayas’ regime that actually has militirized the whole nation?

    Elias,
    Without any effort to weaken the TPLF, these criminals will bring themselves to their own demise!! Min ale belugn!!!

    Meles ena Bereket akbezbizoachewal!!

  13. You are right – the defeat of Woyane is victory for every Ethiopian person – be it in Asmara, somalia, or Oromo or OLF. The news that coming from mogadishu is very encouraging as not only woyane lost so many of them – but – countless of woyanes are captured alive.

  14. Eliase you are very imaginative….Issaise will protect Asmara to last blood drop. He will let Ethiopia even capture Assab and like you said a long war take rot….weyanes are fool, if unorganized UIC could bog them down like, how could they face Eritrea? Eritrea has 300k soldiers, as many tanks as Ethiopia has, even now thanks to the Arab allies, its air force is much more stronger compared to the previous war. Infact now according to some, Oromo pilots or Amhara pilots will not trusted to fly, if they did they might turn the Menilik palace into ash. The other scenario is that now Shabia owns multiple of airplanes ranging from Mig 29 to SU 27
    So it won’t be easy…
    having said this, let me tell you the truth behind the current alarmism coined by weyanes and US…they hate the commissions decision to offer a document for virtual demarcation and their trying to every thing to delay this decision. that is why they r cutting phone lines, US embassy in Addis issuing safety warnings for its subjects an ICG issuing statements …all this orchestrated by weyanes and their boss-USA…however, they unintentionally are giving for shabia a green light to start a war for which it has been preparing for long time…so whether they like it or not the war is on irreversible path now. And, for intensive purposes, weyanes will loose this war both militarily and politically…so at the end indeed emmama Ethiopia will win!!

  16. Elias, you make me sick man. Just because you hate woyane that doesn’t mean you should be against Ethiopian military in general. It is obvious that Meles regrets what he has done with Eritrea in past. If he decides to go to war with Eritrea, I have no doubt that Ethiopian will come out victorious, because victory is in our blood. So cheering for OLF, ONLF, and UIC is not a way to solve our internal problem. No matter how much we hate our leaders, they are sometimes in the right direction. Even though I don’t like war this time if Meles decide to invade Eritrea, I will support him a hundred percent. Because this time around, it is not going to be about Badme or other tribal issues, it matter of whether or not Ethiopia has the right access to the Red Sea port (Assab). All other organizations you are supporting or cheering for are not for Ethiopia, they are groups who wish to see the fall Ethiopia. It’s just that simple.

  17. I like the analysis; however, I have a question. Do you think, if the government in Ethiopia (Woyanne we all ‘hate’) loses control of the country, the country remains settled? Don’t you think that the so many enemies of Ethiopia (economically desperate Eritrea, Egypt, the real terrorists…) involve and make a big mess? What if the woyanne introduced division on the line of ethnicity blasts…isn’t that troubling?

    I really am scared of these things. I think I prefer removing woyane peacefully as CUD, OEDF…are trying to do.

    BTW, you block some of my comments, please don’t; I am one of those real Ethiopian concerned. I want to discuss issues openly before we make possibly wrong conclusions. Take side with Ethiopian poor and do the analysis based off that.

    Peace to Ethiopia

  18. You’re absolutely right on the money, about the whole woyanne
    monkey businesses. If we- as Ethiopians take sides, we may wake up to be enslaved without our will for many years to come.

    Woyannes are already over stretched beyond their capacity. The children they ship to bloody deserts must eat, sleep, have constantat refillings with arms, which woyannes economy would not for long time. When supply dry out majority of boys would surrender in masses, which would give leverage for EPPF/ OLF/ONLF and so on.

    All Eritrea has to do is to be resilliant and extend the war for one year. Meanwhile real activies within the empire would explode, from angry parents who lose son and daughters to the war, to dessents who seek change of political spheres, to unpaid regimes employees, the unhappy citizens would join in.

    If there is any hope for majority citizens of Ethiopia, Northern war must be active. Educating all societies within Ethiopia must come alive throuhg clandestine radios, papers,TV’S, via families, friens to speed up all hell to engulf woyanne at the same time.

    We must leave, all behind and support Eritrea to come on top of woyanne invasion. I personaly admire your enlightened, comprehensive view to where we need to side. Side with the enemy that has no shred of will to enslave us forever. Eritrea has no plan to loot and root us, woyannes have done what fascist Mussoloni had done.

  19. Elias. your essay clearly states that shabia’s victory over woyanne’s army is a victory to Ethiopia. it is not really a victory for us, it is insult instead. by the way did you have any relation with the Eritrean regime.

  20. Elias, you are doing good so far in the fight against the facist melese zenawi regiem. i agree with your analysis, but not the point regarding shabia, against shabia we need to stand together what ever the case may be, by the way standing togther against shabia means standing togther against meles. sabia has nothing to do with the innocent and peace loving eritrean province people.

  21. i have nothing to say, you said it all.splendid indeed!

    it is not without reason why we must support the eritrians today.
    1.at first, the currenet erithrian regime had a green light in 1991 if they had a wish to govern or to enslave ethiopia at the time,but they didn’t because they had their pre definde objectiv.that is to libirate their land, this means they are steadyfast to what they say and they are reliable than the woyyanes that changes overnight if they think they can get something today without any analysis of it’s future consequence for the people they claim they stand for.
    2.wayyenes are the same group with shabia they are not diffirent in any way to chose wayyane than shabia.
    they two were ethiopians .except the shabia want to face evry thing alone with out any bodys support and the woyyane lack conffidence and ability to survive alone and became prasite on ethiopian people.

    3.it is very difficult for eritria to try to control ethiopia by any means as woyyane did and will do if they win the battel anymore so we must chose the less bad than the worst

    moreover we must support the one who have truth and speaks truth eventhough it hurts as for amoment. the shabia says we kill and they kill.but the woyyanes say we never kill but they kill in hundreds.shabia don’t speak about democracy and don’t practic it either ,but the woyyanes songs evry day about democrcy but never did even once in 17 years.

    the truth will prevail! and we are on the side of the truth.

  22. If Shabya and Woyanne bloodshed eachother, it is good; because, both criminal organizations were and are the twin enemies of Ethiopia and Eethiopians;and besides, the problems that they created will be solved if both of them are defeated by Ethiopians.

    There are a couple of sayings:- a) for a rainy day b) for a sunny day.

    Well, there are a well fed and well trained Meles Zinawi’s army hidden but ready to march into Asmara. These elite forces have everything to destroy Shabya’s army and know the in-and-out of Asmara; when the battle start, the vanguard will the army which is composed of the rest of Ethiopia. In the murderous eyes of Zinawi, the above mentioned composition is nothing but ready to purished; once this is occured, the elite army of Meles Zinawi will advance forward as the land mines are cleared by the composition army.

    Clearly, the elite army of meles zinawi will be engaged in a hand-to-hand battle with Shabya and the heat will go on.

    There is a possibility of Meles’s army would be defeated; then what will be followed is Meles and his crime family will run to the place where think it will be reserved for a sunny day. For now, just in case, Meles has reserved elite army for a rainy day.

  24. My hope is that there won’t be war. The Woyane would have to have lost their mind to start one. I just can see Eritrea starting it.

    Of course, given the insanity and indecency of the Woyane, I would not be completely shocked if the Woyane initiates some sort of military confrontation with Eritrea. If this happens, we should all voice our disapproval. Another destructive war isn’t in the of Ethiopia.

    While I agree with Ethiopian Review that a weakened Woyane is good for Ethiopia, I don’t believe there will be any winners if war breaks out.

  26. Do you think it will be better for Ethiopian unity if Shabia takes over? History tells us what we wish and what we get are far apart of our dreams. I am not fond of weyane, yet our wishes may create the demise of Ethiopia, as we know it. Be careful of what you wish!

  27. Elias,
    You conveniently left out the third option – peaceful struggle to bring about change in Ethiopia. In other words, the Kinjit way. Supporting one tribalist over the other, and worth yet siding with Shabia, the sworn enemy of Ethiopia, does not bode well for the Ethiopian democratic struggle. “Gulecha bilewawet wot ayatafitim”, if you know what I mean. Let me ask you one question: God forbid, say one of your favorites – OLF, ONLF, Shabia – get the upper hand and succeed in bringing down Woyane, which I very much doubt. Then what? Are they overnight going be democrats or pro-Ethiopia? NO! They are worse than Woyane. Please put aside your analysis which is totaly based on hatered, which is understandable given what these devil woyanes are doing to innocent people, and stick to the Kinjit way. Peace and democracy for Ethiopians!!!!!!!!

  28. Responding to Kechinu, you need to read the article twice to understand what Elias talking about untill that stay on the side.
    Elias, I agree 100% because it will demoralize Woyane solider and it will unite all freedom fighters that means Woyanes life it will be short like a dog.

    So what we have to do is to set up a meeting to unite all freedom fighters to put their differences on side for the sake of Ethiopia and to fight to death with Woyane.

    Elias, Please you have the connection make it happen to unite all freedom fighters then we don’t mind to sacrifice our money and life.

    God bless Ethiopia! God destroy Woyane!!!

  29. Elias,

    You’re right on the money. No mincing of words here. We need to ally with everyone opposed to Woyanne — especially Eritreans — to get Meles and his Western masters off our back.

    There should be no confusion about this. TPLF and its leadership are the No. 1 enemies of Ethiopia. The sooner they go, the better.

  31. Elias:
    Well, I am with you about crashing Woyanne. However, I have a problem with your support of Essaya’s Shabia. Let us not forget that Woyanne was strengthened and brought to power by Shabia. Shabia and Woyanne are both the cause for what is happening in our country. Furthermore your analysis is based on emotions rather than historical facts. So about that.

  32. You know, most people I talked to say that the only reason they visit your web page is because you have the latest information concering Ethiopia. Other wise, a lot of them say you are border-line crazy, saddist and abnoxious individual. Now, I believe why. This writing proves it all. You need to be ashamed of yourself as an Ethiopian. You blamed Woyane for killing 100,000 people. and yet, you are ready to accept the sacrfice and defeat of Ethiopian Army, which means you want them to be massacared at the hands of Eritreans. The idea itself should anger everybody. No one is the Enemy of Ethiopia more than YOU. Why don’t you join ONLF, OLF, or the Eritrean Army. You are doing the same thing with your writing.

  33. I am not supporting either of them. OLF/Shabia are not diffrent from Woyane. Elias, I chose the first option, `Do not take side in the absolutely senseless war’

  34. No matter what, woyane is disintigrating Ethiopia.
    shabia is not less than woyane for the distruction of Ethiopia.Elias, this time you went more than what an Ethiopian is supposed to suggest. I am againest the woyane politics from the begining, but that does not mean I do support woyane’s current enemy Shabia. For me both are a treat to the Ethiopian people and peace in the region.Therefore do not isolate yourself from the main stream Ethiopian politics. We do need to think logically what comes next not only to get ride of our dictators.

  35. ኤልያስ፦
    አሁን ገና አጣብቂኝ ውስጥ ከተትከን።ሻእብያን ደግፉ፣ወያኔ እንዲወድቅ? ላም እሳት ወለደች፣ እንዳትልሰው አቃጠላት፣ እንዳትተወው ልጇ ሆነባት ነው ነገሩ። ሁለቱም ክፉዎች ቢሸነፉ እወዳለሁ። ካልሆነ ግን አሰብ ይምጣ።

  36. I think God is going to serve justice to the innocent blood spilled by this evil tigre warlords and make them eat each other. And that is a blessed opportunity for Ethiopia to get rid of the Tigre warlord meles the monster. But I am not going to take sides since they are criminals with different sides of the same coin But we should encorage the war at any cost because when this monster dictators eat each other Miracles happen they both could die. Haleluah.

  37. Elias, you are great man. You are the only person so far who tells the truth but the TRUTH. Unlike others the so called educator, who always playing with poor people mind and their selfish interest to come to the power, who have no pain for the suffering of poor peasants, you are great man. We will support you in any way for telling the truths far as woyane concern, their day is numbered. Not a single human being should support this murderer regime who slaughtered unaccountable innocent people. This woyane regime by any means don’t represent Ethiopia at all. Woyane needs Ethiopia only when they need help period. Other than that woyane has no feeling of Ethiopia. Woyanes government told us already they will protect Eritrea than Ethiopia. So why we have to support and protect this crazy regime from falling apart? Who ever comes to destroy woyane, should get moral support. Woyanes are hiding under Ethiopia name, but their hearts aren’t Ethiopian. Let God destroy this evil creature by any means.

  38. Elias do hate woyana in deed. but the word “freedom fighters (onlf)” caught me off guard. Lets make the fight with woyana, one that finishes dictatorships to its last but never make it a means of loosing our Ethiopia to separatists.

    I have not once heard any good thing from ONLF of good thing about Ethiopa. I have not been convinced woyana is for Ethiopia ether by any means both of them are disasters .

  39. This editorial is far-sited and deserves the attention of everybody who wishes to see a long-lasting peace for that region. Particularly, it is knocking the door of those of us who love Ethiopia, but do not differentiate the friend from the enemy. When the Wayane destroys lives in somalia, Ogaden, Oromia, Amhara, etc., it should be condemned by all of us, not only the affected parties. It is if and only if we could stand side by side and confront/oppose a minority ethinc Wayane, that is a common enemy, that we lay a foundation for a promising future, where we could live in a democratic country that we all sholud care for. Remember, the Appartied regime in South Africa ended not only by the struugles of Black South Africans and the ANC, but others including people form the White minority that ruled at the time.

  40. Elias

    What can I say you are a true patriot – in the face of so many hypocrites, liars and political prostitutes – You stand for a principle – I see tomorrows’ leaders of democratic Ethiopia in the likes of you!!

    Keep up the good work – You are certainly inspiring me and hope inspiring millions of Ethiopians who only wish a DEMOCRATIC ETHIOPIA SOON!

  41. Ato Elias IMHO,

    The enemy of my enemy is NOT necessarily my friend. I suggest one need a keen observation of the entire situation before rushing to conclusion.

    Tsehay Demeke

  42. Dear ER,
    I don’t think that you have come up with a sound analysis and plausible recommendation this time. Look, geniune Ethiopians are peacefully demanding for the rule of law, freedom, peace and democracy in Ethiopia. Woyane, however, is trying its best along its own way, igniting multiple war fronts in the region. This is what it can think of …. its level best!
    You know, I feel that this is a delebrate strategy by woyane at the verge of its collapse. Woyane is designing a kind of bad “homework” for Ethiopians/East Africans so that we keep on fighting once it is gone.
    Your comment would seem to me as a kind of early call for us to start working out this “homework”… while woyane is still in place.
    I would appreciate if you rather insist us on keeping up with the peaceful and legal struggle strategies so that: woyane will colapse-moving in its way; the region would regain its lasting peace; Ethiopia regains its unity and we have our democratic Ethiopia.
    With Respect,
    Yirga

  43. Elias
    I like your comment but it is not legitmate to support Shabia.I don’t see any difference between the two.Both of them are the enemies of our country.Eli I understand your suffering for the sake of Ethiopia and its people,but we should not see the atrocity and suffering of ouer people.So we need to see the last assault of weyane.Eli what I want to tell you with respect one day hopfully victory will be ours.But Eli put some of it under your knoweledge.Have a good time.

  44. It is a difficult dilema. either way is slavery. We can’t support Weyane to strengthen itself again to rule us more years. We can’t either support Shabia since it was Shabia who put Weyane on us and it would be the same slavery again.

    It would have been a victory for Ethiopian people If the Ethiopian opposition was organized as ONLF or OLF. The big players are now EPLF and TPLF. The ethiopian people won’t benefit from EPLF’s victory against Woyane. OLF and ONLF would benefit much since they want to succeed.

    My question is why are our lazy politicians sit and talk about democracy, peacefull struggle blah blah which didn’t change nothing. It would have been a best opportunity for them now to position themselves for a negotiation deal if they went the way ONLF and OLF went.

  45. ************************************************************

    Elias,

    I read your analysis and the feedback you got from others. I see some problems both in your analysis as well as others.

    The basic problem starts from our points of view. Are we basing our opinion based on our wishes or are we looking at it based on the reality out there that exists now.

    So the first question is what is the reality of the balance of forces on the ground? Can the Eritreans have the capacity both in terms of financial and economic resources to prolong the war? This is the easy question.

    Next comes the issue of air power. Are they in a better position today than during the last war to effectively combat an air offensive coming from the Weyane army? Is there any one for the Eritreans to back them up by providing intelligence as well as military personnel to fight the air war? The Weyanes have the US to provide them with this capability. In fact, American pilots may take part in this war to take out the air defences of Eritrea as well as key military installations by using their modern sofisticated war planes. This will softened up the Eritrean Army and pave the way for the Weyane ground military forces to overrun Eritrea and possibly set up a puppet government immediately. This will be true if the US is involved on the side of Eritrea using air power. This will change the whole geo-political situation in the region for a long time to come.

    If the US is out of this war equation, Eritrean have a chance to resist and even beat the Weyanes provided they have a better and well-trained as well as enough war planes to conduct the war.

    I very much suspect the US may take part in the air war to topple Issayias and if there is a war, the odds seems to be in favor of the Weyanes unfortunately.

    The conclusion is that the best thing for Eritrea is not to start the war and even resist provocation by the Weyanes. Unless the Eritreans have satisfied the preconditions to win the war which I mentioned earlier, their best bet is to get out of the demilitarized zone and not give the US and the Weyanes to start a war. I am not saying this because I am worried for them. As far as I am concerned, I don’t give a damn for Aferworki if the Weyanes slash his throat. But if the Eritreans loose, it will affect the struggle against the Weyane fascists in Ethiopia miserably and with very sad consequences.

    My advice for Eritreans is not to start the war. The odds are against them. They should engage the Weyanes in a protracted war by weakening them by supporting different oppostion movements and conducting a proxy war. This will splinter their conventional capability and will also limit their use of air power and American air support. This will work in favor of the oppostion movements and the struggle at home which is my main concern. And this should be the concern of Elias and all other democratic forces fighting the Weyanes tooth and nail.

  46. TO me OLF, Woyanne and Shabia are the same and I want see them kill each other, but my heart goes out to all the true ethiopians who are fighting in this coming war.

  47. Elias:
    It is very articulate analysis. The Weyanes are evil people. They do not care for united Ethiopia; their initial dream was to form “Great Tigray. ” why we are trying to hide the truth? They changed the plan of their dream after Shabia told them that it was wrong to separate Tigray from Ethiopia. Still, they are building Tgray not Ethiopia. On the other hand why we believe the Weyane propaganda, the shabias did not say nobody would use their ports. In fact they said that if the border issue solved, they would seat to solve other issue for the coexistence of both neighbor nations. Weyane they fought for a piece of land by sacrificing other ethnic groups rather than Tigreans. So are we supporting for the same reason? We need to learn from our previous experience and reed off this evil people who dreamed to divide Ethiopia. Lets try to leave in peace with our neighbors.

  48. Adamu #44 has a great point. In fact, it supports Abiy’s point of view. Since Kinijit is involved in a peaceful struggle, I doubt if it is going to have any meaningful role if the war is concluded with the defeat of the Weyanes. That is why Abiy took the position he did at the end of his comment. The best and the is to avoid a Weyane-Shabiya war until Kinijit or other Ethiopian National patirotic army is ready to handle the consequences of the war either way no matter who wins.

    I am afraid both defeat and victory of the Weyanes is not a good thing for the oppostion. NO WAR is the best thing for the opposition.

  50. Once again, I say the analysis is way out of touch. Who is dying here? Ethiopians! Who is better for Ethiopian unity and stability? Shabia? OLF? The dislike of weyane should not make us completely blind to the reality on the ground.
    I find the analysis to be off target and reckless. The defeat of Weyane by any power will create a crack that can not be patched up by any local or foreign Power. Think of peaceful resolution. We have had many years of shooting at each other with out abating. Think… shabia is the one who trained armed weyane and get us where we are. At least weyane calls them selves Ethiopian. I am ashamed of you. You are the same person who was telling the Diaspora not to fly Ethiopian Airline. What is wrong with you man? Wake up. Let us be honest neither Shabia nor Weyane is good for ethiopia. But if I have to choose between the two evils, I will take my chance with Weyane.

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