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Woyanne-Shabia conflict: The defeat of Woyanne means victory for Ethiopia

Posted on , Updated on by Elias Kifle

Ethiopian Review Editorial

Woyanne is currently engaged in a shooting war on multiple fronts. The worst fighting is going on in Ogaden with ONLF and in neighboring Somalia with the Islamic Courts Union (ICU). The news coming from these fronts are encouraging — the Woyanne military is getting its nose bloodied by the ICU and the ONLF freedom fighters. Woyanne is now about to open another front in the north — Badme. Woyanne and Shabia are amassing hundreds of thousands of troops in the area. According to various sources, a major war could start any time. The question for Ethiopians, particularly those of us who wish to see a united Ethiopia free from the Woyanne tribal junta, is what should be our stand?

There are two options:

1) Do not take side in the absolutely senseless war, or

2) Take an active stand against Woyanne by helping Eritrean, ONLF, OLF, and all the other anti-Woyanne forces. An active stand against Woyanne includes agitating troops not to fight, causing damages to Woyanne supply lines, etc. Blockading the road from Addis Ababa to Tigray alone would cripple the Woyanne military machine.

Ethiopian Review encourages the second option. Here is why:

1) Woyanne is the real enemy of Ethiopia that has left us land-locked. On top of that, it has been committing one atrocity after another against the people of Ethiopia for the past 17 years. In several parts of Ethiopia, such as Ogaden and Gambella, Woyanne forces annihilated whole villages of people. What is going on currently in Ogaden is a genocide by any standard. Not looking at the pictures of dead women and children whose heads are splattered by high caliber bullets from Woyanne helicopter gunships, whose bodies pulverized by Woyanne rockets does not lessen the horror of Woyanne atrocities. Woyanne must be stopped from carrying out these atrocities by any means necessary.

2) It is not the Eritrean regime, not the ONLF, not the OLF, not the ICU that had thrown over 100,000 Ethiopians in Zeway, Shoa Robit, Donkoro Chaka and other disease-infested concentration camps after stealing the May 2005 elections. It is Woyanne that ignored the will of the people and enslaved 70 million Ethiopians through its blood thirsty military machine that is currently busy wreaking havoc in Ogaden and Somalia. Woyanne has no mandate to govern Ethiopia, has no right to enslave us and must be removed by any means necessary.

3) As Woyanne moneyman Sebhat Nega himself said a few months ago on a Woyanne radio station, Woyanne has done more than Shabia for the separation of Eritrea from Ethiopia, leaving 70 million people landlocked. Notwithstanding the Woyanne propaganda, the impending Woyanne-Shabia war does not advance the national interest of Ethiopia an iota. It is war over a small plot of land that has no strategic significance for Ethiopia. It is a war that is intended to divert attention from Woyanne’s internal political crisis and the Somalia quagmire. Ethiopia can get back her sea outlet through a negotiated, mutually beneficial settlement with Eritreans. The only obstacle to such a negotiated settlement with Eritreans is the illegitimate Woyanne regime. For this reason alone, Ethiopian pro-unity forces need to help Shabia defeat Woyanne.

Let’s ignore the Woyanne propaganda for a moment and be frank with each other. Which is the lesser evil? Shabia or Woyanne? Both are brutal dictators, but who is currently tormenting Ethiopians? Both will not bring democracy to Ethiopia, but whose defeat will present an opportunity for change in Ethiopia?

If Woyanne wins against Shabia and all its opponents, for the people of Ethiopia it would mean more slavery at the hands of an emboldened Woyanne. If Shabia wins, it would mean no more Woyanne’s brutal rule. The best case scenario is for Shabia to break the backbone of Woyanne, which will force it to:

1) Immediately pull out of Somalia,
2) Pull its forces out of Ogaden, Oromia, and other regions of Ethiopia and rush them to Tigray to protect its base of power,
3) Seek reconciliation with Ethiopian opposition forces.

The most likely outcome

If Woyanne starts war with Shabia, this time it will lose for the following reasons:

1) Those troops who are not hardcore members of Woyanne will not fight the way they did in the 1998-2000 war. They will surrender or put down their weapons and run to Sudan. Even better, they could turn their guns against Woyanne officers.

2) Shabia will not engage Woyanne in a conventional battle of troops against troops, and thanks against thanks this time. What Shabia will do is let Woyanne come deep into the Eritrean territory, even all the way to Asmara. Then engage Woyanne’s over-stretched military in a protracted, guerrilla style warfare. With a well-coordinated propaganda campaign, most non-Tigrean soldiers could desert in massive numbers. Even Tigreans who are not hard core Woyannes would hesitate to fight. After all, what did Woyanne bring to the people of Tigray except more suffering, more war, more repression, and more poverty? Most of the developments in Tigray are benefiting only Woyanne members who are not more than 200,000 Tigreans. By all accounts, the 7 million Tigreans have not benefited from the Woyanne rule what so ever.

Most dictatorships have terrible ends. Hitler, Mussolini, Saddam, Chauchesku, Charles Taylor, to mention a few. With the way things are going on in Somalia, Woyanne’s end is already becoming messy, ugly and horrifying.

142 thoughts on “Woyanne-Shabia conflict: The defeat of Woyanne means victory for Ethiopia”

  1. Mr. Elias you expound the current situation of Ethiopia as well as the fate of Woyanne including what the position of concerned Ethiopians should be at this important phase of termination of Woyanne period at the back of poor Ethiopians.
    As to me Ethiopians has to aggravate the war.
    Because this war is the end of TPLF.

  2. All Ehiopian democratic forces should think about their tactics for two possible scenarios:
    1. There will be no war (and no peace if the stalemate continues)

    2. There will be war and Sha’ibiya will be chased out of Asmara. (I think it is a foregone conclusion that Sha’ibiya will lose if there is going to be a war. And, I don’t believe that they will fight a guerilla war after that because they have been spoiled by the comfort of palace life.)

    The great danger is that EPRDF will be hardened by this and will try to close all the doors to a democratic transition. THIS CALLS FOR VISIONARY LEADERSHIP especially from CUDP.

  3. Eritrea – the failed State.

    If a referendum on Eritreas political fate like the 1993 Eritrean naational referendum would take place in Eritrea today, the result would be completely opposite to the 1993 result. Some 99% of Eritreans will choos to be united with the rest of Ethiopian people under just and democratic order. Eritrea is a standing proof that liberation alone is not a goal and an end for a national liberation movement. As a result Eritrean nationalism is now fading and to be realistic is losing meaning. The war between Woyane and Shabiya is not a border war as they both claim. It is to a large extent a situation created as the failed state that is dying is trying to get hope and revive at the expense of the Woyane, and that Woyane started to resist after carrying the burden for appreciably enough time. But all that it carried the burden, Woyane carried it at the expense of the Ethiopian people. To summarize Ethiopian cannot have any ground to support Shabiya over Woyane, and resume carrying the burden of Eritrean failed state. It is also not to the strategic benefit of the Ethiopian people. The defeat of an Ethiopian government by a foreign power means a lot in international politics. It means a lot on the development efforts, investment flow, technical and economic aids Ethiopia is gaining as a regional power and presumably reliable friend to the west etc etc. Ethiopia defeat may make Eritrea an automatic candidate to replace Ethiopia collaborations with the world’s economic and military powers. And it would not be the best alternative for Ethiopians to work on their internal affairs by supporting and all adverse foreign power, a situation that may lead their engineer affairs engineered by foreign power like the Shabiya regime, whos entire existence depends on sharing or if possible snatching opportunities and benefits from Ethiopia. That is it.

  4. አቶ ኤልይስ:

    ወያኔን መጥላትና ሻቢያን መውደድ ለየቅል ናቸው:: ሁኔታው ለመወስን የሚያስቸግር ፈታኝ እንደሆነ ይገባኛል:: ወያኔ ቢሳካለት የሚያደርገው ከሞላ ጎደል ግልጽ ይመስለኛል:: ኤርትራ ውስጥ አፍቃሬ ወያኔ የሆነ መንግሥት መመሥረትና የጦር አጋር በመፍጠር ተቃዋሚዎችን መፈናፈኛ ማሳጣት: ብሎም የማይደፈር ኃይል ሆኖ ከመቀጠል ያለፈ አጀንዳ ያለው አይመስለኝም:: አሰብን ያስመልሳል የሚሉን ከየትኛው ሚስጥራዊ የወያኔ ማኅደር እንዳገኙት አላውቅም::

    ሻቢያ ቢያሸንፍስ? የሚለውን በጥሞና ብናጤነው ጠቃሚ ይመስለኛል:: ሻቢያ ወያኔን ካሸነፈ በኋላ ቅንጅት የምንናፍቀውን ዲሞክራቲክ መንግሥት እንዲመሠርት አገሪቱን አስረክቦት ወደ መረብ-ምላሽ ያፈገፍጋል ብሎ መተንበይ የምርቃና ግምገማ ይሆንብኛል::

    1ኛ. በአሁኑ ወቅት በቅንጅት ዲሞክራትነት ላይ ያለው ክርክርና የውስጥ አንድነቱ ግምት ውስጥ ሊገባ አይገባውም ውይ?
    2ኛ. ሻቢያ አፍቃሬ-ቅንጅት ነው ውይ? እግረመንገዱንስ አጠናፍሮት ሊያልፍ አይችልም ወይ?
    2ኛ. ቅንጅት አገሪቱን ከሻቢያ ተረክቦ ሊመራና አንድነቷን ሊያረጋግጥ የሚችልበት አቅሙስ መዋቅሩስ አለው ወይ?
    3ኛ. እነ ኦነግና የኦጋዴን ግንባር ከወያኔ ሽንፈት በኋላ ከቅንጅት ጋር የሚያሳዩት አስተማማኝ ትብብር በተጨባጭነት ይታወቃል ወይ?
    4ኛ. ሻቢያን እንደግፍ የሚለው አስተያየት በ1979 የሱማሌ ጦርነት ጊዜ እንደተወሰደው የኢሕአፓ አቋም ቅንጅትን የፖለቲካ አጣብቂኝ ውስጥ አይከተውም ወይ?

    ቢያንስ ጦርነቱ እስኪጀመር በሰከነ አእምሮ በማሰብ አገሪቱ ለበለጠ ኪሳራ እንዳትዳረግ መጨነቅ አለብን:: አማርጭ ያልተዘጋጀለት ደርግን መጥላት ለወያኔ እንደዳረገን ሁሉ ወያኔን ጭፍን ማውገዝ ደግሞ አገራችንን የግንብአሮች ፍሪዳ እንዳያደርጋት ያስፈራል:: ሃሞት ላለው ከሥእራዊቱ ተቀላቅሎ በቅድሚያ ሻቢያን ከዚያም ወያኔን በቅደም ተከተል መገዝገዙ የጊዜው ስትራተጂ መሆን አለበት እላለሁ:: ዲያስፖራ ሁለት የሚምልበባቸው እናትና አባት አገሮች ስላሉት በሰው ቁስል እንጨት ከሚሰድ ያበጠ ይፈንዳ አስተያየት ቢቆጠብ በጎ ነበር::

  5. Elias,

    Thanks for surprising Lily #87 by posting her Weyane trash. You gave her an opportunity that she will never get from her fascist Weyane masters in her life time. That is why we keep saying the Weyanes are killer dictators while we are democrats with a lot of tolerance. We can even accomodate Weyane slaves like #87.

  6. Elias, You are really very smart person. I thought about the whole suitation again and again and came to the same conclusion as you have done.

    What is the point of supporting the Woyanes ???

    – Are we invaded by Shabia ????
    – Are we invaded by the ICU ????

    What is the point of rallying in support of the Woyanes then ????

    – In 1998, we were screwed in to believing that we were invaded and we rallied, like bees whose hives have been touched, in support of these Woyane gangs. But now , we know it all. Cheat me once, shame on you; cheat me twice, shame on me (shame on us Ethiopians).

    Now, shabia is not a treat to Ethiopia. There is no invasion from north. Now, Woyane is the one who is sparring for war, for sure it is not for the good of Ethiopia. Woyanes are doing the bids of External powers, whith Ethiopian blood, and they get in return more time to rule (enslave us ).

    Let us all do what Elias has recommended.

    Elias, I have never seen so bold a person like Elias. We really want person like Elias for Presidant. Hail Elias.

  7. Such a hatred by Elias with out knowing the effect such war will have on Ethiopia.Mr. Elias all your reasons are blinded by hatred. I totally admire your struggle for justice in Ethiopia. But like it or not Woyannes also are Ethiopians.Can you develop the culture of respect for your opposing parties.Dissent with out hatred.How about that.I thought you are living in the westren society that different opinions are shared for a common goal.

  8. To Elias and to those who fan his love for anti-Ethiopian elements.

    The following article is posted on Garowe Online on 11/10/07, please read it and have your take.In my opinion Elias is saying the samething that bolsters the propoganda that anti-Ethiopia groups have been saying way back the inception of Ethiopia. Some of them infact deny the existence of Ethiopian Sovereignty. You can hate Woyane for its political blunders and anti-democratic activities,but you do not side with those who work hard day and night for the disintigration of our country Ethiopia. Shame! Shame! Shame!

    Somalia: Our Puntland brothers must help us end the Nazi Ethiopian Empire

    All Puntlanders in the Diaspora and our native dwellers need to understand the significance of this period in the history of Somalia. It is not time to fight each other or to worry about old grudges. We are about to witness the end of the inhumane Ethiopian empire and the Puntland administration should not be the savior of the Ethiopian demons. This is a calling to all Somalis inside “Ethiopia” (Ogadenia), Kenya and Puntland to unite against the Abyssinians and their TFG puppets. It is a calling to join your brothers fighting in Mogadishu and join our Eritrea allies.
    These next 4 months will shape the history and the destiny of Somalia, a country that was brutally carved up and cut apart like a piece of cake by the Europeans and their Abyssinian friends. Today is one of the weakest points of this Abyssinian (Ethiopian) empire. This evil empire was supposed to collapse 17 years ago but the criminal Tegrein warlords like Males Zenawi wanted to maintain its inhumane existence to continue the typical Abyssinian parasitical acts of robbing our people and massacring our children. But today, we have another big chance with the help of our friends in Eritrea and with the ONLF and OLF freedom fighters who have never abandoned their people who are imprisoned under this hell on earth.
    When Puntlanders blindly give help to the TFG traitors, they should not forget the thousands of innocent civilians who have been massacred in their homes in Ogaadenia by the inhumane Abysinians for the last century. When Puntlanders think about giving help to the TFG, they should remember the millions of innocent people in Ogaadenia and Oromia who have been locked up in this famine infested Morgue “country” that avoided Yugoslavication in 1991 because of the American imperialists. The imperialists want to keep feeding these Amarra and Tegre demons because of their religion and to use them as proxies. But all of the American and Tegre efforts are failing and the oppressed people of east Africa will soon achieve independence!
    Patriotic Somalis from around the world have stood up against Ethiopia but Puntland is blocking our freedom. Puntland must stop helping the detested TFG traitors. After the Tegrein warlord Males is defeated by the coalition forces, the only powerful group left in this region will be ONLF and our OLF brothers. So the oppressed people in “Ethiopia” can soon be free but Puntland is still hindering progress by helping the TFG. Overstretching the Tegrein army of Males will not be achieved if Puntland continues to give help to the TFG puppets. The UN has already abandoned the Ethiopian invaders after watching Abysinian corpses dragged around Mogadishu just like the American imperialists during Black Hawk Down. Even humane Abyssinian groups are helping our ONLF fighters to end this evil Ethoipian Empire created by their inhumane forefathers like the bloodthirsty Menelek. So why is Puntland protecting the TFG? Wasting this great opportunity is a crime against Somalia. It is a crime against humanity. The Abyssinians themselves, who never liked each other, are fighting between Amarra and Tegre as they have been mercilessly massacring each other the last 1000 years. Historically, the abesh people are cursed and parasitical creatures who have been drinking blood and tyrannizing east Africa since they arrived from Yemen. To expect any peace from these Abysinians who have no peace among themselves is to be a fool. Today, it is not because of their strength, but only because of our weaknesses and lack of unity among Somalis, which has allowed the Nazi Ethiopian Empire to survive.
    While the inhumane Abyssinians stole power from each other the last 1000 years by using violence, Aaden Cadde and our civilized leaders have been giving up power peacefully. This is the holy and democratic history of Somalia, in contrast to the parasitical abesh. Likewise, we need and we fully expect Puntlanders to reflect the proud Somali culture of brotherhood and nationalism that Aaden and all our heroes passed down to us. Stopping the current Puntland assistance to the TFG will significantly weaken the Males army and help our Eritrean brothers finish off the most inhumane empire in world history. All citizens and leaders of Puntland have a historical & moral obligation to stop the suffering of all Somali people who are scattered in imperialist countries of Ethiopia and Kenya.
    by Abdirahman Mahdi, [email protected]

  9. Dear Editor,

    The EPLF although has helped in some of the initial training of the TPLF, it is not due to the EPLF that the TPLF succeeded in defeating the Derg army but due to the courage and resoluteness and competence in guriella warfare tactics of the TPLF/EPRDF fighters. Rather it was thanks to the TPLF fighters that the EPLF was totally saved from being annihilated by the Derg army during the 1982 Red Star campaign (a couple of TPLF Brigades under the command of General Hayelom engaged in a diversionay attacks of the Derg Army and rescued the EPLF by giving it a chance to requip and reorganize). Despite some antagonisms the EPLF and TPLF had to cooperate for mutual benefit. Indeed, Eritrea would not have been an independent country today and the EPRDF would not have seized power had both the EPLF and EPRDF not, tactfully, collided.

    As opposed to the war in 1998 where the Ethiopian army was dismantled and reduced substantially (out of naivety of trusting the EPLF on the part of the EPRDF leaders), while the EPLF was building and training massive army including air force, this time by and large Ethiopia has a well prepared and trained army. Even taking account of some traitors and deserters, there will be a substantial strong army which will be able to crush the EPLF forces if they pulled a trigger and incited a war.

    The people or elements who are now advocating supporting the EPLF in the event of a war, are the same people who, in the previous war of 1998, used to say that the war is “a war between Tigreans and Eritreans” and let them kill each other and called on other Ethiopians to refrain from supporting the government. However, contrary to their expectations and despite the advantage of the sudden attack of the well prepared EPLF forces, the Ethiopian army prevailed. Same history will repeat itself in the event of similar miscalculation by the EPLF leaders.

    Most of the above people who posted their views (including the editor) are either Shabia supporters (disguised as Ethiopians) or OLF and ONLF supporters who view Ethiopia a colonial empire and who would like Ethiopia disintegrate like the former Yugoslavia.

    Elias, if your proposal is implemented or becomes a reality, a combination of what happened in Yugoslavia and Somalia will repeat itself in Ethiopia. A scenario where the ethnic regions with the more organized liberation fronts taking control of these regions while multiethinic regions or cities like Addis looking like Mogadishu (God forbid this!).

    At least under the EPRDF regime, despite some human rights violations and the secession of Eritrea, Ethiopia is more stable, united and peaceful and functioning as a country much better than Somalia, Eritrea or other most war torn regions of Africa. It is inevitable that the EPRDF regime will gradually be replaced through democratic means. Thus, it is better to tolerate some of the pains of the EPRDF rule for some time for the sake of stability and national sovereignty than risking the disintegration of an ancient country with proud people by practicing myopic views.

  11. Elias, do you think Shabia is better for Ethiopia than Woyanee? Even for Eritrea, Shabia is a catastrophe! I think we should not support any groups who hold Guns! Instead we should have Alliances of democratic organizations and parties from Eritrea to Somalia. That is the only way to free the region from tyranny. To replace one dictator with another worst one will not do the job.

  15. What will be the reason for weyane to start a war with Eritrea this time? Is it to expedite their burial; is it for Greater Tigray, for benefit of Ethiopia or for U.S imperialism agenda? I will leave this question for you to answer.
    For some of you who advocate war against our neighbor, you smell likes the two head two tang weyane. As an Ethiopian, if war started, weyane defeat not only a victory for peace loving people of Ethiopia and Eritrea as well as for the rest of Africa, particularly for the Horn. if you recollection work properly our Eritrean brother, sister and their Government were in our side during the 2005 Election mass murder in Addis exposing the weyane and U.S administration crime against our peace loving people. Is there any African government or Institute or AU which there head quarter in Addis did they have the courage to say any thing. It was Government of Eritrea who spoke day in day out till today for those of you retarded weak-up smell the coffee. Let us get rid of the Cancer of the horn weyane. Stop being house Negro.

    Peace!
    Awash

  16. It never fails to amaze me how some Ethiopians want to dwell on the past than planning for the future, a future, hopefully, of peace and cooperation instead of continual hatred and unattainable thinking that is neither achievable nor beneficial to the brotherly peoples of Eritrea and Ethiopia and indeed the Somali brothers as well. Now, does one have to be a rocket scientist or a brain surgeon to realize such fundamental reality? What is all this empty bravado on the part of the cyber warriors when in fact such irresponsible utterance meant nothing less than death and destruction to the Eritrea, Ethiopian and Somali peoples? It may be even negatively affect to others of the region. Is that what we would like to see happen? Where is the benefit of such child tantrum behavior to us and our children? The Weyane will go one way or the other irrespective of US support. But, for the rest of us, I surmise that it is for the benefit of the nations of the Horn to be able to live in tranquility augmenting each others needs rather than squandering it on many meaningless wars. I don’t know about you guys, but our peoples the people in Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea don’t care much for any silly wars that nonetheless consume the young generation for no measurable gain whatsoever!

  17. I agree that Somalia has become very difficult to govwen and occupy. It has increased somali nationalism and unity as no one wants to be ruled by a weak government supported by a foreigner.
    Eritreans have been ding their home work to get supporters in Ethiopia. This is through satelite TV and the email. I can feel several emails in this messages as well. However, encouragin to support the strategic enemies of Ethiopia is shortsitedness and lack of historical understanding. If the ONLF wins in Harer, Diredawa and other cht growing areas are gone forever. The Nile basin without a strong ethiopis might be occupied by Egypt. With all the libration fronts winning there will not be a central government in Ethiopia. One thing that is missing from the ER analysis is if Eritrea defeates the Ethiopian army what will the plan of Shaebia be after it occupies Ethiopia. Please note that while the Fronts will adminster their regions and establsih independent coutnries, the rest of Ethiopia might be occupied by Shaebia. I wonder what ER will say to such a senario. I will never support the strategic enemies of Ethiopia. Governments come and go but the country still remains the same. God Save Ethiopia,

  18. good for u and for all the racist but not for real honest ethiopians we need peace u don’t want to see one ethiopia with love u … hate words and the poor prople are paying the price not u foolish mind.

  19. Brother Elias God bless you. You are reay a true patriot. To the weyanes and their folowers, do not waste your time lecturing us that Shabiya or Eritreans are our mortal enemies. They are not. Our enemy is weyane and its pupets. The Sumalis or Eritrean infact the whole horn African people are our brothers. The only reason we hate shabiya is they brought you to power. So, do not fool yourseves that you can play us fools. The sad thing is, you are just propogating to go to war with Eritrea but your evil muster melles knows well this time will his end, because this time it will be his agazi and some poor informed Tigreans that will die for him not us or the majority Tigrai people. Therefore, weyane is coward to star war this time because the last time he did, we saved his ass but not this time.
    God bless Ethiopia and the end of weyane is coming.

  21. I commend you brother Elias for your full dedication to your country. My message here is to those Weyane cadres trying to lecture us that Shabiya is our enemy. We hate Shabiya because they brought you to us and to power. Now the time is up Weyane go home.
    God bless Ethiopia.

  22. I’m an avid Ethiopianreview visitor. I agree with most of your analysis all the time. This is the time I draw the line. Shabia is as bad as Woyane. Both regime should be dismantled. If you think, my enemy’s enemy is my friend. You are dead wrong. What happened to your memory? have you lost it or you really don’t want to remember?
    Weyane and Shabia have been disintegrating, raping, stealing Ethiopia till the recent years. The grandoize idea could not go thru and fell around 2000. What makes you sure that Meles and his crime family will want the end of Shabia? They are the same thugs who killed and massacred non-Tigrayans Ethiopians for years. Please Elias get real and stop this non-sense. No peace-loving patriotic Ethipian with the right mind will agree with your analysis.
    Weyane and Shabia need each other to survive. I’m sure you remember Sebhat Nega’s interview on Eritra issue. Unless you have hidden agenda that I’m not aware of, please don’t fall from grace.
    -Tazabiw.

  23. Elias GOOD JOB! Woyanne is our number one eniemy. I support always the people who they love Democracy. Death to Woyanne and its supporters! Long live for real Ethiopians.

  24. Elias without a doubt is a true Ethiopian and a sage man.He is on the mark.Ethiopia will be better off when the Woyannes are defeated.This TPLF nightmare must end.It can`t get any worse than this.

  25. Good analysis!!!

    My hope was always to see free Oromia in the horn of Africa. However, I could loosen my stance like many of my fellow Oromos given that a free and democratic system emerges in that region including Eritrea and Somalia. This way everyone wins; even Woyanne supporters.

  26. I want to make 3 points regarding, Arman’s (No. 106) comments.

    1 .Arman perpetuates the myth of TPLF military prowess. The facts are otherwise. The turning point and TPLF’s meteoric rise came once the organization entered into partnership with a Western intelligence agency to undermine the Derg.

    Under the guise of famine assistance, TPLF received over $100 million US dollars. How do i know this. It’s public knowledge; all detailed in a book called Without Guns or Tanks. The author is Pendergast.

    2. There is no gradual move towards democracy by the TPLF government. TPLF killings and reign of terror after the 2005 elections are enough proof that the avenue for peaceful struggle in Ethiopia has been closed. Meles has made it clear many times: we came to power using guns; don’t fool yourselves thinking we will give it away through elections.

    3. The TPLF leadership and those who got rich by serving it have found Ethiopia’s wealth the foreign money flowing in sweeter than honey. They will not give it up through elections. They have made it abundantly clear in the last 16 years.

    That is why we need to ally even with the devil to get rid of TPLF. Don’t get me wrong: I am no lover of Eritrea. But if Eritrea was good enough to bring the rag tag TPLF to power, it should be just as good for Amharas, Oromos, Sidamas, Somalis, etc.

    The sooner we understand these truths, the faster the liberation of Ethiopia.

  28. Excellent analysis. The question however remains that the consequence of a power vacuum could be grave. Opposition forces should therefore agree on the form and content of a provisional government in order to avoid chaos after the demise of the repressive Woyanne regime.

  29. The greatest worry has been if the two criminals meet at the battlefield, which is coming soon,economy situation of Isayas Afeworky regime will not take the battle through; so Meles Zinawi knows this problem so that he kept on teasing and fightenen him almost daily. On the other hand, Meles Zinawi knows he has no support from Ethiopians and he knew that he is on his own along with his crime family. In the end, he must know what he and his crime family will face; of course, justice.

  30. Elias my dear with all due respect, what you are writing is deeper than the superficials you put in. I respect you; very much I have been reading your magazine for over two decades, but this one is not a deep analysis. This war is not for Africa. It is not for Eriterea. It is not for Somalia. This war is for the supermacies of the international conglamorates. It is a war for colonialism of the whole of Africa in the 21st Century. Period.
    Tazabi
    African masses will not gain anything including yourself.

  31. who killed all the enocent ethiopians in gambella sidama amhara and ogadenians not toforget the victim twice in addis ababa so please first let us pray for the tplf victims for one minute then start fighing for our coutry sake and our mothers sake.

  32. Elias,
    Congratulations and thank you for the sound analysis. Meles and his cronnies had 16 years to govern Ethiopia fairly. They chose not to.What a waste of opportunity!. Instead they spent all those years perfecting how to loot everyone else other than themselves and massacring the rest of Ethiopians.

    Now, the Woyanne and their supporters (some of whom are participants of this forum)have nothing else to tell Ethiopians other than scaring us by saying that Shabia and Somalia are our eternal and strategic enemies bent to dismember Ethiopia!. What a joke!. Why Eritreans, if they wanted to, did not partition Ethiopia when they had the chance 16 years ago?. As for Somalia, there is no even point of talking about them as they have been without central goverment and national army since Meles came to power and therefore posed no threat to Ethiopia. As for the talk of a threat from Somalia’s islamist and presumed justification of Meles’s invasion to Somalia, the islamist were not even able to extend their influence to two thirds of Somalia let alone Ethiopia.

    If there ever was a cancer in the Horn of Africa it is none other than the Woyanne and their supporters. They created the wars and hostilities with Eritrea and Somalia and most importantly are responsible for the sad state of affairs within Ethiopia.

    However, the crimes and past wrongdoings are catching up fast the Woyannes and as every regime led by morones the cracks and inevitable downfall has already began. No Ethiopian should be fooled by answering their war cry as it will only extend their hold on to power and by extension the suffering and massacre of innocent civilians. The wars with Eritrea and Somalia are NOT Ethiopian wars. It is TPLF wars-period!.

    Sadly, in the non distance future someone else (i.e a good Ethiopian)has to take care of their wrongdoings and begin the healing process both within Ethiopia and with our neighbors.

  33. let us remember what tplf did to gambella sidama ogaden amhara and oromian people let us pray for all the tplf victims for one minute. if we are united we can be free

  34. Reply to #s 123 and 129

    1. When fighting the Derg, TPLF/EPRDF’s military might was not a myth it was a reality. It is not because they were super human but because they had the support of marginalized and dispossesed courageous people who would rather die than facing the agony of a tyrant military junta rule. TPLF/EPRDF had defeated the EDU, the EPRP, the ELF, and the Derg between 1978 and 1991 and the Ethiopian army led by EPRDF defeated the EPLF in 2000 at the battlefield. Robert Kaplan on page 92 in his book Surrender or Starve (1988) stated that although lacking the equipment and infrastructure development, the TPLF was still one of the best-trained, nongovernmental fighting forces in the world.

    2. Unlike the EPLF who used to receive massive military aid from the Arab countries, the TPLF virtually had no support from the western world other than loads of trucks of grain for the drought affected people who were under their jursdiction. In fact, since they were marxists, they had no support; nor were they much recognized by the western world let alone using western intelligence. In fact, once the west noticed the miraclous military success of the TPLF/EPRDF, the west had no choice but to accept and recognize them.

    2. EPLF did not bring TPLF/EPRDF to power. Rather TPLF played a very decisive role for the capture of Eritrea by the EPLF. Most Ethiopians had resentment with the EPRDF, to begin with, due to its role in the secession of Eritrea. Had it not been for the fight between Ethiopians (the TPLF vs the Derg) the EPLF would have never been able to seize Eritrea by force and Eritrea would have still remained part of Ethiopia. In 1989 (two years before the dwonfall of the Derg), The TPLF liberated the entire Tigray while the EPLF could not liberate 1/3 of Eritrea. Once the EPRDF captured Gondar, Wello, parts of Gojam and North Shoa where the majority of the Ethiopian government soldiers were engaged, the EPLF was able to capture most of Eritrea.

    3. Comment # 129 indicated that EPLF had a chance to disintegrate Ethiopia 16 years ago, if it wanted. However, EPLF had no capacity to divide Ethiopia. Had the EPLF tried to do so, it would have jeoparadized not only the secession of Eritrea but also its own very existence (The EPLF is not that foolish). The EPRDF forces would have dealt with such issue decisively. In fact, the Ethiopian people, who resented the secession of Eritrea, would have supported the EPRDF.

    4. EPLF has a vested interest in a weakened and divided Ethiopia. If Ethiopia is weak and divided, no one would challenge Eritrea’s independence and claim sea port. Also, the EPLF would be able to take advantage of Ethiopian economic resources. Thus, it is utterly foolish to imagine that Ethiopia will be able to continue as a united strong nation state, if EPLF gets the upper hand. EPLF is untrustowrthy. It even betrayed the TPLF/EPRDF, the very institution which helped Eritrea to become an independent country contrary to the will of the Ethiopian masses. Thus, it is naive think that EPLF would like to see a strong, prosperous and united Ethiopia.

    Long live Ethiopia!

  35. This is a response to Dawit, No. 131, above and to those like him.

    There is iron clad proof that TPLF’s rise to power has everything to do with its secret alliance with a Western intelligence agency and the money, arms and management that came with that.

    The same Western intelligence agency that armed and funded the Mujahiddin in Afghanistan during the Cold War was also behind the TPLF’s rise to power. Over $100 million in American funding over a short period of time in a poor country goes a long way. That special relationship continues to bring riches to TPLF and misery to the Ethiopian people.

    TPLF had a Marxist army with imperialist funding. How convenient! I have the facts to prove it, if necessary. Prove me wrong.

  36. I’m a Somali brother from Somalia,

    Dear Ethiopians, as you know today my nation is under occupation, not from Ethiopia but from an evil and a brutal entity called Woyyane. They have caused destruction and pain; they killed thousands and displaced millions. They are making my nation and people bleed. But we swear that one day however long it takes, we will avenge for the dead and overrun Woyyane and its habitats. One day, we will reduce Woyyane to utter ruin. For us Somalis, we have been unwavering friend of Ethiopia, the land of peace and co-existence. No society on earth is so embracing like the Ethiopian society. Unfortunately, that truth has been dented by Meles and the Woyyane. Unless they are uprooted and reduced to ashes, Ethiopia will bleed under their rule and our nation too will suffer.

    We support the struggle of the Ethiopian masses for freedom, equality and prosperity. We detest and discourage wars, hate, bigotry and disturbances. But Ethiopia today under the watch of Woyyane and its tyranny is nothing but a den of evil. Destroying that den of evil so that Ethiopia comes back to the world stage as the cradle of civilization is your national and human duty. For us Somalis, you are our brothers and sisters. We harbour no hate towards you; after all, most of Ethiopians are suffering like us from the brutality of Meles and his Woyyane regime. I hope Shabia or anyone crushes Meles and his forces so that a new Ethiopia under a loving leadership builds peace with Eritrea and peace too in the region. When we stand up as a nation (day follows the night and this is bound to come), we will compare the notes with the remnants of the Woyyane and only then they will know how terrible we are. Our lasting friendship with the Ethiopian nation and people is eternal. No one should doubt it and no moment will it suffer any cracks. The Somalis who live in Ethiopia are suffering like the rest of Ethiopian communities and that’s why they are crying for separation, but if things improve in Ethiopia, I’m sure no one will like the idea of secession; after all, Ethiopia is the cradle of co-existence and tolerance. This will depend on Woyyane and how long they can survive. Work hard so that you help Ethiopia and its neighbours. Ethiopia needs its neighbours much as its neighbours need Ethiopia. Our future and destiny is one. Peace to you and death to Meles and Woyyane!

  37. Response to Dewitt #131

    If I didn’t feel that some bogus statements of the type Dawit is using without any concrete proof to support his wild assertions about what may or may not happened during the armed struggle of both the EPLF or TPLF, I would have simply not bothered to respond to his statements. You see Mr. Dawit, it does not do any good to regurgitate what some blind supporters of Weyane have been telling us just to score a point on how Weyane was the best thing that God gave Ethiopia since the invention of bread. Ethiopia does not need some recitation of blank and emptiness. What Ethiopia and the Ethiopian people need and deserve is something concrete that is going to better their lot. But, even if one is going to take your wild presentations as FACTS, what good does the average Ethiopian gets from such things that has happened in the past and for which no ordinary Ethiopian is the benefactor of such happenings. Isn’t it time for people like you to start thinking about the present and future of the Ethiopian people than dwell on some fantasy of the past? Remember you and I and the rest of ER visitors can argue back and forth until the cows come home. But, if our argument is not based on facts and solely on some emotions tantamount to child tantrum, how do you expect the Ethiopian people to get anything out of our futile discussion. I would suggest, let what happened in the last 16 years and beyond be analyzed by historians and let us NOW address the dire issues the people of the Horn find themselves and help them out in anyway we know how. Otherwise just repeating and rehashing the old and tired empty slogans do not turn into food, medicine and education and peace, which they need most. I have always said this and let me say it again: you and I may be well of because of where we are, but, we must ALWAYS think and worry on how negatively it is affecting them now and any more war will negatively affect the people who are actually living in the Horn. Shouldn’t that be our main concern at this time should another senseless war is unleashed by the Weyane gangs? I would hope so.

  38. Reply to No.131

    Courage, while necessary, is not a substitute to military machine and TPLF did not fight with barehands against the DERG. Military equipment and fund to run effective guerilla warfare don’t grow on trees they have to come from somewhere. It just happened that some of us knew where help to TPLF was flowed from. The talk of TPLF’s marxist roots(hence didn’t get help from Western countries) doesn’t cut either since politics is complex enough to allow-when convenient- Marxist, Capitalists and Religious extremists all in the same bed and there are plenty of precedents.

    As for your claim that “had it not been for the fight between Ethiopians (TPLF vs Derg) the EPLF would have never been able to sieze Eritrea by force and Eritrea would have still remained part of Ethiopia”. Amazing!.
    *To your disappointment, I thought and many would agree that TPLF was nothing but a junior partner to EPLF in defeating the DERG.
    * “Fighting between Ethiopians i.e TPLF vs DERG” since when TPLF belonged to Ethiopia?!. If you care to know when TPLF abandoned the idea of establishing The Marxist Leninist Republic of Tigray and chose to remain in Ethiopia, all you have to do is to look for their political program (before 1989 version).
    *EPRDF. Must be kidding!. Who is EPRDF who allegedly helped defeat the DERG?.
    * EPRDF was formed and is to this day a convenient cover to TPLF rule and the non-TPLF members of EPRDF neither contributed to the downfall of the DERG nor it has any input in running the country.

    The DERG was primary defeated by a combination of 1977 Ogaden war between Ethiopia and Somalia (both Mingistu Haile Marian and Somalia’s Siad Barre never fully recovered from it and in the end both fell few months from one another), the protracted armed struggle by combined TPLF and EPLF forces that exhuasted and bled the DERG to death, the ever growing internal discontent, economic and political bankrupcy and the weakening and eventual collapse of the DERG’s ally ; the Eastern bloc.

  39. No. 135 please note that

    No amount of military aid or western intelligence is not a substitue for committment, courage, determination and descipline either. If it was, FNLA and UNITA, who received not only massive military support from the U.S. but also troops and military hardware from apartheid South Africa, would have prevailed over MPLA during their fight to set up a government in Angola in the 1970s. If military expenditure was a determining factor, the Derg’s $4 billion worth of military expenditure,would have saved it from its final downfall. If money and western intelligence were determining factors, the U.S. would have prevailed over Vietnam.

    No other Ethiopian is more Ethiopian than Tigreans. Ethiopia has never been without Tigray and viceversa. Much of Ethiopian history is based in Tigray. Tigray is the cradle of Ethiopian religion (both Christianity and Islam), government, alphabet, literature, architecture,etc. Over the centuries, Tigreans have paid more than their fair share of sacrifices in defending the sovereignty of Ethiopia. To mentions just a few, a little bit over a century ago, emperor Yohannes defeated foreign invaders at the battle of Gura, Gundet (both are in present day Eritrea)and Metema. Ras Alula, who is from Tigray and who as a governor of the present day Eritrea founded the city of Asmara, won the battle with the Italians at Dogali (near Massawa)(the first time Europeans to lose a battle to Africans). At the battle of Adwa, thousands of Tigreans sacrificed their lives along with other Ethiopians and foiled an attempt of colonization by the Italians. Hence, if indeed the TPLF, had such an idea to establish an independent Tigray, that idea was highly absurd and that political program was flawed. The people of Tigray would have never accepted it. That is why also they abandoned it. Eventhen, that does not disqualify them from being Ethipian. Because the true history is otherwise. That is why the fighting between the TPLF and the Derg was a fighting between Ethiopians. That division and fight between Ethiopians helped EPLF to secure the secession of Eritrea. The EPLF supporters who are using this website posing as Ethiopians are still trying to create ethnic divisions to carry out their strategic objectives of a disintegrated Ethipia.

    With respect to TPLF being a junior partner, it took the TPLF 15 years to take the entire Tigray while it took the EPLF 30 years to enter Asmara. Indeed age wise the EPLF is 15 years senior to the TPLF. However, excellence is not achieved by the number of years in the bush but by the extent of accomplishments. The TPLF surpassed the EPLF in terms of accomplishments and gains. People have the wrong perception about the EPLF because the EPLF through its PR is very noisey (empty barrel), best at misinforming and brags too much about itself. However, its noises are nothing but a bluff, as it was proven during the battle of Badme.

  41. TPLF has a skilled defender in Dawit, No. 136.

    But I appreciate the fact that Dawit does not deny that TPLF was financed and run by a Western spy agency. That relationship continues to this day wreaking havoc not only in Ethiopia, but also all over Horn of Africa.

    Granted, Dawit qualifies the importance of foreign assistance saying it’s no substitute for “committment, courage, determination and descipline” which the TPLF supposedly had in abundance. Dawit confuses courage with a thirst for power.

    TPLF is the first Ethiopian group that sold its heart and soul to foreigners to get to power.

    The comparison with Unita of Angola is also very apt, with Meles Zenawi as the Jonas Savimbi of Tigrai. Who said Unita did not have courage and commitment? It just so happens that Ethiopia Unita succeeded.

    The TPLF has done very well for itself at the expense of Ethiopia. It will do anything to stay in power, including sacrificing Ethiopian soldiers as hired mercenaries in the service of foreign powers.

    This tribal fascist group is now the source of much pain and suffering in Ethiopia and Somalia. It stands accused of genocide and crimes against humanity both in Somalia and Ethiopia.

    History will not look kindly on this group. Sooner or later there will be a war crimes tribunal and TPLF leaders and their accomplices will have to face the music.

  42. Response to #136,
    Dawit please don’t insult the intelligence of the Ethiopian people. Since when is the make believe story of the ‘alphabet” from Tigray? While Geez is the common source to the Semitic languages of Tigrigna and Amharic among others, don’t tell us it was produced in Tigrai. In fact, I remember when I was a student of HSI University in Arat Kilo campus, some Tigreans in the hostels we shared used to wonder and ask some Eritreans reading letters written to them in Tigrigna, “Ewae debdabie btgrgna ytsehafdiu?” meaning “debdabie betgrgna ytsafalwey”? They said they spoke Tigrigna but when it came to writing, they always wrote in Amharic. That doesn’t sound Tigrai quite a source of alphabet like you stated, does it? People like Dawit live in exaggerations and some fancy stories they like the rest of us to believe. Why don’t you people just be yourself instead of trying to live beyond your limit? The question was never where the alphabet was discovered or born anyway. The question is how do we get rid of the pests in Ethiopia? Do you have a suggestion, please share it with us. Otherwise resuscitating a dead horse can’t bring it back to life. Wakeup and smell the Ethiopian coffee and realize that the days of your Weyane and their supporters are numbered.

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