By Barry Malone

ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) – An Ethiopian opposition leader said on Tuesday an anti-government plot had been invented as an excuse to arrest potential candidates ahead of national elections next year.

“Without third party verification I can’t believe there was a plot,” Bulcha Demeksa, leader of one of the largest opposition parties, the Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement, told Reuters.

“This government is just looking for an excuse to imprison potential politicians.”

Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s government said last month a group led by an Ethiopian professor, Dr {www:Berhanu Nega}, had planned to use assassinations and bombings to provoke street protests and topple the government.

The Meles regime arrested 40 former and current army personnel and members of a disbanded opposition group from a “terror network” it said was formed by Berhanu Nega, an opposition leader now teaching economics in the United States.

[The detainees include an 80-year-old father of one an opposition party leader who recently went through a heart bypass surgery.]

The Bucknell University lecturer, who has publicly said he wants to overthrow the Ethiopian government, has called the accusations “baseless”.

“When Berhanu says he wants to overthrow the government, it is just words,” said Bulcha.

“He couldn’t have organised these people from the U.S.”

Former Ethiopian president Negaso Gidada, now an independent member of parliament, also told Reuters he doubted Berhanu’s involvement, but said the government was using the alleged plot to root out dissenters in its military.

“There is no democracy in Ethiopia,” added Negaso, citing recent legislation governing the activities of charities and the media that rights groups have condemned as repressive.

COURT PROCESS

The Ethiopian government’s head of information, Bereket Simon, told Reuters that evidence was being prepared and the accused would appear in court on May 11.

“Nobody has any right to prejudge the evidence and undermine the rule of law,” he said.

Opposition parties routinely accuse the government of harassment and say their candidates were intimidated during local elections in April of last year.

The government denies that.

Another opposition leader, Birtukan Mideksa, a former judge who heads the Unity for Democracy and Justice party, has been in solitary confinement since December.

She was jailed after a disputed 2005 poll, with Berhanu and other opposition leaders, when the government accused them of instigating riots in Addis Ababa in an attempt to take power.

About 200 opposition protesters were killed by soldiers and police in violence that followed.

Mideksa and Berhanu were released in a 2007 pardon, but she was re-arrested last year after the government said she had violated the terms of the pardon.

Meles was hailed as part of a new generation of African leaders in the 1990s, but rights groups have increasingly criticised the rebel-turned-leader for cracking down on opposition in sub-Saharan Africa’s second most populous nation.

The party that wins next June’s parliamentary election will pick the prime minister. Meles is expected to win comfortably.

Ethiopia’s political climate is closely watched by foreign investors showing increasing interest in agriculture, horticulture and real estate prospects.

The nation’s economic progress has been hampered of late by high inflation and a fall in foreign exchange inflows.

The country is one of the world’s poorest, ranked 170 out of 177 on the United Nations Human Development Index, and one of the largest recipients of international aid.

“Humanitarian aid should be continued, but development assistance should be conditional on a country being democratic,” said Bulcha. “How can you imprison and kill your people and have the world treat you like a democracy?” (Editing by Andrew Cawthorne)

By FRED OLUOCH | The East African

Ethiopia will be holding elections next year, but all indications are that the ruling party, the Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) [a cover for the tribalist Tigrean People Liberation Front, commonly known as Woyanne] will win, and there could be a repeat of the 2005 post-election violence because of two factors.

One, the government has closed all democratic space and two, the opposition is hugely divided.

Back in 2005, the opposition under the umbrella of the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD), formed only six months before the May elections, gained massive popularity, especially in Addis Ababa winning all the seats in the capital.

Today, a combination of a seriously splintered and weak opposition, and the perception of Zenawi by the US as an ally in the war against terror in the Horn of Africa, has given EPRDF a head start.

There is also a widespread feeling that the ruling party, has created conditions to ensure its win, resulting in a growing campaign for an election boycott by the opposition.

The government has closed all democratic space by monitoring and intimidating the media and civil society.

It has tightened its control on free speech, forcing observers to question whether it will be possible to hold a free and fair election under the prevailing circumstances.

Some radical opposition leaders are calling for an election boycott.

The government operates and controls mobile telephone and the short messaging service (SMS) can be disabled anytime.

Since the violence of 2005, the EPRDF has not left anything to chance.

The party has tacitly started campaigning, funding youth groups composing about six million members, farmers associations, women groups and any other groups that could vote against it.

Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has hinted that he might not run in 2010, but the majority of Ethiopians do not take this seriously.

The EastAfrican recently visited the capital, Addis Ababa, where the largely disillusioned populace have resigned to the fact that EPRDF will retain power. But there is simmering discontent.

“The people are withdrawn because they are angry that EPRDF is practising politics of exclusion and it is not ready to share power, despite the realization that a good number of Ethiopians do not support it but are afraid to speak out for fear of persecution. This could create a conducive ground for a repeat of the 2005 post-election violence,” said Mesfin Kebede, a former journalist, who had to abandon the profession due to an increasingly hostile operating environment.

In 2005, the results were delayed from May to September following widespread claims of fraud, which prompted various unrest in which hundreds of people were arrested and at least 200 killed by security forces.

CUD leaders and other prominent opposition politicians were arrested and jailed for life for inciting violence. However they were released after pressure from the international community. Many of them chose to leave the country rather than risk re-arrest.

This was what happened to Birtukan Mideksa, a fiery 34-year old lawyer-cum-politician, and leader of the Union for Democracy and Justice. She was detained after the government revoked her pardon on grounds that she violated the terms of her release.

However, six major Ethiopian opposition parties recently formed a new political alliance — the Forum for Democratic Dialogue in Ethiopia — to run for election and agitate for the release of jailed opposition leaders.

According to Sammy Fikre, a writer with The Sub-Saharan Informer, Meles is perceived as eloquent and brave. “Western donors believe that he understands them better than many African leaders, and that he has ideas for economic growth and reduction of poverty. But some of it is exaggerated,” he said.

In October 2007, the US House of Representatives passed the Ethiopia Democracy and Accountability Act, 2007, which proposed withdrawal of “non-essential” assistance to Ethiopia until the federal government meets human rights obligations outlined in the Act.

With the entry of the new US administration, and Obama’s tacit warning to dictators in Africa, Zenawi will be under pressure to allow greater democracy in the second most populous nation in Africa after Nigeria.

But even with the unity of opposition, the EPRDF is still too strong, given that Ethiopian opposition parties routinely accuse the government of harassment and intimidated during elections, as was the case in last April during elections for local authorities.

Even the once formidable CUD is a pale shadow of its former self.

CUD was mainly made of business community, civil society and those who had their education abroad and had never been part of the government.

It was popular and formed only six months before the May 2005 elections.

However, EPRDF was complacent and was taken by surprise by the CUD popularity, in which opposition took all the seats in the capital, Addis Ababa.

Now, EPRDF is aware of the type of opponent they are facing and are not leaving anything to chance.

The party has tacitly started campaigning, funding youth groups numbering about six million, farmers associations, women groups and any other groups that could vote against it.

As a result, there is a difference among the opposition whether to participate or boycott the elections.

Moderates are urging the opposition to participate to further entrench democracy in Ethiopia, but radicals within the opposition believe that participation will mean legitimizing the obvious, that EPRDF will win through manipulation and fear mongering.

Still, anything can happen, with the growing inflation and the continued repression of civil liberties.

The youth are resisting the reservation of some ministries to certain ethnic groups.

It is a practise that certain key ministries can only be held by one ethnic group irrespective of merit.

However, Ethiopians agree that he better than his predecessor, Mengistu Haile Mariam, even though he rules with an iron hand. Unlike the former regime—commonly referred to as the Derg—people are relatively free to speak their mind provided they dot directly challenge the government.

Secondly, EPRDF had provided opportunities for the growth of business under other activities, with Addis Ababa currently experiencing construction boom.

Indeed, some of Meles critics believe that Ethiopia’s invasion in Somalia in 2006 with support from the US was meant to divert attention from domestic problems and the some Western countries who had threatened to cut aid over lack of democracy and civil rights.