By FRED OLUOCH | The East African

Ethiopia will be holding elections next year, but all indications are that the ruling party, the Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) [a cover for the tribalist Tigrean People Liberation Front, commonly known as Woyanne] will win, and there could be a repeat of the 2005 post-election violence because of two factors.

One, the government has closed all democratic space and two, the opposition is hugely divided.

Back in 2005, the opposition under the umbrella of the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD), formed only six months before the May elections, gained massive popularity, especially in Addis Ababa winning all the seats in the capital.

Today, a combination of a seriously splintered and weak opposition, and the perception of Zenawi by the US as an ally in the war against terror in the Horn of Africa, has given EPRDF a head start.

There is also a widespread feeling that the ruling party, has created conditions to ensure its win, resulting in a growing campaign for an election boycott by the opposition.

The government has closed all democratic space by monitoring and intimidating the media and civil society.

It has tightened its control on free speech, forcing observers to question whether it will be possible to hold a free and fair election under the prevailing circumstances.

Some radical opposition leaders are calling for an election boycott.

The government operates and controls mobile telephone and the short messaging service (SMS) can be disabled anytime.

Since the violence of 2005, the EPRDF has not left anything to chance.

The party has tacitly started campaigning, funding youth groups composing about six million members, farmers associations, women groups and any other groups that could vote against it.

Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has hinted that he might not run in 2010, but the majority of Ethiopians do not take this seriously.

The EastAfrican recently visited the capital, Addis Ababa, where the largely disillusioned populace have resigned to the fact that EPRDF will retain power. But there is simmering discontent.

“The people are withdrawn because they are angry that EPRDF is practising politics of exclusion and it is not ready to share power, despite the realization that a good number of Ethiopians do not support it but are afraid to speak out for fear of persecution. This could create a conducive ground for a repeat of the 2005 post-election violence,” said Mesfin Kebede, a former journalist, who had to abandon the profession due to an increasingly hostile operating environment.

In 2005, the results were delayed from May to September following widespread claims of fraud, which prompted various unrest in which hundreds of people were arrested and at least 200 killed by security forces.

CUD leaders and other prominent opposition politicians were arrested and jailed for life for inciting violence. However they were released after pressure from the international community. Many of them chose to leave the country rather than risk re-arrest.

This was what happened to Birtukan Mideksa, a fiery 34-year old lawyer-cum-politician, and leader of the Union for Democracy and Justice. She was detained after the government revoked her pardon on grounds that she violated the terms of her release.

However, six major Ethiopian opposition parties recently formed a new political alliance — the Forum for Democratic Dialogue in Ethiopia — to run for election and agitate for the release of jailed opposition leaders.

According to Sammy Fikre, a writer with The Sub-Saharan Informer, Meles is perceived as eloquent and brave. “Western donors believe that he understands them better than many African leaders, and that he has ideas for economic growth and reduction of poverty. But some of it is exaggerated,” he said.

In October 2007, the US House of Representatives passed the Ethiopia Democracy and Accountability Act, 2007, which proposed withdrawal of “non-essential” assistance to Ethiopia until the federal government meets human rights obligations outlined in the Act.

With the entry of the new US administration, and Obama’s tacit warning to dictators in Africa, Zenawi will be under pressure to allow greater democracy in the second most populous nation in Africa after Nigeria.

But even with the unity of opposition, the EPRDF is still too strong, given that Ethiopian opposition parties routinely accuse the government of harassment and intimidated during elections, as was the case in last April during elections for local authorities.

Even the once formidable CUD is a pale shadow of its former self.

CUD was mainly made of business community, civil society and those who had their education abroad and had never been part of the government.

It was popular and formed only six months before the May 2005 elections.

However, EPRDF was complacent and was taken by surprise by the CUD popularity, in which opposition took all the seats in the capital, Addis Ababa.

Now, EPRDF is aware of the type of opponent they are facing and are not leaving anything to chance.

The party has tacitly started campaigning, funding youth groups numbering about six million, farmers associations, women groups and any other groups that could vote against it.

As a result, there is a difference among the opposition whether to participate or boycott the elections.

Moderates are urging the opposition to participate to further entrench democracy in Ethiopia, but radicals within the opposition believe that participation will mean legitimizing the obvious, that EPRDF will win through manipulation and fear mongering.

Still, anything can happen, with the growing inflation and the continued repression of civil liberties.

The youth are resisting the reservation of some ministries to certain ethnic groups.

It is a practise that certain key ministries can only be held by one ethnic group irrespective of merit.

However, Ethiopians agree that he better than his predecessor, Mengistu Haile Mariam, even though he rules with an iron hand. Unlike the former regime—commonly referred to as the Derg—people are relatively free to speak their mind provided they dot directly challenge the government.

Secondly, EPRDF had provided opportunities for the growth of business under other activities, with Addis Ababa currently experiencing construction boom.

Indeed, some of Meles critics believe that Ethiopia’s invasion in Somalia in 2006 with support from the US was meant to divert attention from domestic problems and the some Western countries who had threatened to cut aid over lack of democracy and civil rights.