By Abdurrahman Warsameh
MOGADISHU (Xinhua) — With Ethiopian Woyanne regime’s announcement of withdrawing its troops from Somalia by the end of the year, as well as the signing and culmination of the Djibouti peace and power-sharing agreements between the Somali transitional government and a major opposition faction, the political and military equations within the war-torn Horn of Africa country have changed, say analysts, but the future remains “as dark as ever.”
The Ethiopian government Woyanne regime said in a letter sent to the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and the African Union Commission Chairman Jean Ping early last week that it would withdraw its remaining troops from Somalia by the end of 2008, culminating two years of intervention in Somalia.
The announcement, which in effect is the formalization of a long process of silent and low profile withdrawal from the country, comes as the Somali transitional government is only controlling Baidoa, the seat of the parliament and pockets of Mogadishu, where the African Union peacekeepers along with the remaining Ethiopian Woyanne soldiers are protecting government offices as well as the air and sea ports, says Abdurrahman Hussein, a political commentator in the Somali capital.
“Ethiopian Woyanne troops are withdrawing from small areas in the capital and Baidoa in which they still remain, but we should never lose sight of the fact that the (withdrawal) process started way before now,” Hussein told Xinhua. “No single foreign soldier either from Ethiopia or the African Union peacekeepers are outside the two cities. The rest is under the control of the opposition forces.”
The opposition, mainly divided into two camps — the radical Al-Shabaab group and their ideological allies, and the moderate Islamists dominated Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS), are united only in terms of their opposition to the presence of Ethiopian troops in the country.
However, the feared Al-Shabaab group is opposed to any talks with what they see as an “apostate government” and demands no less than an Islamic state in Somalia that implements literally every word in the Koran, the holy book of Islam.
In contrast, the political leadership of the ARS faction led by the moderate leader Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed has entered into peace talks with the transitional government and signed a power sharing deal in which the membership of the Somali parliament will be doubled and a new leadership for the country will be elected at the beginning of next year.
The two opposition groups control roughly the same swathes of territories in south and central Somalia with the Al-Shabaab group ruling much of the areas to the south of the capital while ARS’ military wing, the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), run much of the regions to the north of Mogadishu.
Although some of the commanders of the ICU on the ground have issued statement rejecting the agreement reached with the government by their political leaders in Djibouti and vowed to continue “the holy war” against government forces, their Ethiopian Woyanne allies and any foreign forces to be deployed in Somalia, the moderate leaders, unlike the Al-Shabaabists, are not opposed to the deployment of UN authorized peacekeeping forces.
They have been adding their voice to the need to expedite the deployment of a UN force, saying, just like Ethiopian Woyanne authorities long held, that “a security vacuum” will be created by the Ethiopian Woyanne troops’ withdrawal.
However, the Al-Shabaab group and their likes are bent to fight any foreign troops — whether Ethiopian Woyanne forces or UN authorized peacekeepers — that are deployed in Somalia. They have also clearly stated their unwillingness to share power with what they see as “enemy collaborators.”
Mohamed Ibrahim, a Somali analyst, says the new leadership will include senior members of the moderate Islamists within the opposition ARS who will need to convince the other groups to join the process with further negotiations needed before a final settlement is reached.
“I am doubtful whether the new leadership, who we expect will come mainly from senior ARS leaders and officials of the current Somali transitional government, will have the clout to convince or the power to subdue the new opposition that is the Al-Shabaab and their allies,” Ibrahim maintains. “To me as things now stand, the future of this country seems as dark as ever if a rethink is not on the cards about the deployment of any further foreign forces to Somalia.”
4 thoughts on “What is next after Woyanne withdrawal from Somalia?”
“the Djibouti peace and power-sharing agreements between the Somali transitional government and a major opposition faction,”
What “major Opposition” faction? The few personalities that had betrayed the cause of the Somali mainstream and danced to the tune of the US money, are neither “Opposition” in the true meaning of the word nor “Major” for they control nothing and do not represent none but themselves. The only viable forces are those that are based in Asmera if there is going to be any semblance of peace in that war torn country. Sheick Sherif Ahmed Sherief and the former speaker of the Somalie parliament, Mohamed Aden have lost their negotiating cards when they succumbed to US pressure and betrayed their country. So to call them “Major” forces is begging the question.
The Somali people must unite their forces and be the masters of their destiny. Otherwise if it is not the Weyanes, someone else is bound to create the mayhem that we all see in Somalia.
Woyane Forces are withdrawing by force after experiencing the bold, committed, and selfless fighters of Somalis. It was obvious from the outset that the Woyanes would be defeated since they were aggressors. I would like to congratulate the Somali people. Those who lost their dear ones in the war for freedom, I hope, would be comforted by the victory. I call upon all Somalis to unite to do the remaining more difficult job. I wish wisdom for them and for all freedom fighters in solving their differences and in realizing what is and is not possible. Somalis should know that they have very very big enemies, which failed to subjugate them but at least succeeded to put them under this miserable situation, of course the Somalis opposition leadership’s understatement of their foes added among others. Explore options that are less costly and painful to the Somali youth. Victory should not lead to vengeance, arrogance, vanity and loss of foresight rather than humility, tolerance, civility, mercy and wisdom. The Somali people have had enough sufferings. I hope the Somalis will focus on reconstruction, education, and prosperity.
Wisdom, you are indeed a person with some valuable insight!
Elias, What is the veracity of the Weyanes may be sending some fresh troops into Baidoa? http://en.afrik.com/article14961.html
I completely buy Wisdom’s idea. Kurbambeyto: I am sure what Weyanes’ intentions are and why the reinforce their forces in Somalia the same day the announce the plan of withdrawal. But, Weyane might have thought that when it declared its pullout, the freedom fighters could be excited and aggressively move forward to the palace (The ‘government’s safe-heaven). If this happens it could be a good opportunity for Woyane to give a second good crash to the fighters which may leave many brave & irreplaceable Somalis dead and snatch the almost certain freedom from the people of Somalia. So the fighters should be careful not to underestimate their enemy and should not be flattered by any enemies promise to withdraw or declaration of even defeat. There should not be room for error. May be Weyane is expecting such kind of error. I hope this will not happen and the Somalia will be free. Or it could be to beef up the negotiating power of the puppet government or to create confusion. Any ways the opposition should be very very careful.