By Elizabeth Nega
What is next?
We have read multiple articles by scholars, citizens and political groups about the May 15/05 elections and its aftermath. Ethiopians are united in their desire to see the democratic process continue and to stop brutality and human right abuses in Ethiopia.
The Diaspora community has concentrated its effort in carrying out mass demonstrations and intense lobbying to affect the policies of the west concerning Ethiopia. It has achieved some success. Some in the west have articulated clearly their displeasure with Mele’s government and some went as far as agreeing to withhold direct funding to Ethiopia. This effort continues and it must continue.
However we must be careful to use all the tools at our disposal to put pressure on the current government in Ethiopia. Terrence Lyons of George Mason University in his Jan 20/06 paper titled ‘Ethiopia 2005: The Beginning of a Transition’ expressed his view that lobbying and mass demonstrations used as a sole strategy is unlikely to lead to democratic change or collapse of the present regime. I too share that opinion. Why?
1. Past experience in Iraq, Cuba has thought us in the best case scenario these efforts achieve sanctions which makes it difficult for the government to operate but does not lead to democracy or a fall of government. In fact those governments become more dictatorial and more reliant on their military power.
2. According to an article titled ‘No questions asked’ printed in The economist Jan 21/06, Page 57, China has promised the Meles government to replace any funding shortfalls created by the west. Given that China’s economy is the 4th largest in the world with a GDP of $2.26 trillion and Ethiopia’s total annual donations from outside the country amounts to only $1.9 Billion, there is no doubt that China can make good on this promise.
3. Even as pressure is placed upon the west to withhold donations from Ethiopia, overall business investment in the country is skyrocketing. The ‘EIU views wire’ NY Jan 2006 reported that foreign direct investment (FDI) in Ethiopia rose strongly, from US$255m in 2002 to US$545m in 2004, according to the latest World Investment Review (2005) from the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) The increase is due to 2 factors:
1. Investment by a Saudi tycoon, Mohamed Al-Moudi, and his Mohamed International
2. Increased investment from ‘non traditional sources’ like India, Turkey and Iran.
These types of investments continue unabated despite the current situation in Ethiopia.
Some Ethiopians in the Diaspora believe the only strategy that will work to achieve release of prisoners and to continue with the democratization process is ‘politics’-by which they mean lobbying the west to apply pressure on the Ethiopian government. In my opinion ‘politics’ must encompass a much broader array of strategies if it is to be effective. We must use every strategy at our disposal e.g. legislative, legal, public relations, and economic to pressure Meles to do the right thing. After all we all know Meles is using multiple strategies including the courts and military tactics to play his brand of politics.
In summary one thing is very clear to me. We have to reenergize the non-violent movement campaign. Initially we were all caught off guard when the opposition leaders were unexpectedly thrown in jail. We mistakenly thought this might be a short-lived tactic to get concession. This led to complacency on our part. Now that we have realized our mistake and that our worst nightmare has indeed materialized we must regroup, strategize and take broad ranging action to effect the prisoners’ release and democratic change.
As we all know CUD is a coalition of multiple parties, sometimes with differing agendas, united by a single common cause. Let us set aside any such differences and work diligently on this one common goal. Let us form a loose but focused collaboration to share ideas, pool resources, and find effective strategies. Let us move Campaign ‘Free Ethiopia’ (‘Freee’) forward.
If you are an academic, political, civic or any other group or person who wants to have a loose working collaboration with Advocacy Ethiopia (group formed by some family members and friends write to us [email protected]