By T. Mesfin

Reliable European Union sources tell us Meles Zenawi is in dire straights. He is putting up a brave, tough face in public while desperately pleading with European and American donors to keep the aid money flowing.

The situation is so bad that diplomats are looking for a face-saving formula to get him out of the bind. The main formula under discussion is the release of CUD leaders on bail in exchange for donor money. The Prime Minister is reportedly putting in place an elaborate mechanism to keep CUD leaders politically shackled even if they leave prison. Donors also appear ready to pressure CUD leaders to accept certain preconditions for their release.

We are told the country’s foreign exchange reserves are at an all time low. It’s not clear whether the recent assassination of the President of the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia, the country’s largest, is related to the financial debacle.

A major goal of Mr. Zenawi’s emergency trip to Brussels this weekend is to shore up the rapidly dwindling foreign exchange reserves.

The ruling party’s severe crackdown against opposition parties, civic society leaders and journalists has put donors on the defensive. Releasing at least a few of those arrested may calm some nerves. It is a face saving formula that may work for donors as well. After all, they can always say they pressured Meles to release jailed leaders.

Releasing prisoners will only return the country to the situation that existed before November 1, 2005.

The EU and the US on November 7, 2005, called on Prime Minister Zenawi’s government to ‘restore peace and confidence in the democracy-building process by ensuring due process of law and respect for human rights in accordance with international practice and its own commitments.”

The EU-US plan centered on 10 key demands. These are:

o “Immediate end to the use of lethal force, random searches and indiscriminate beatings and massive arrests.
o All political detainees should be released.
o Speedy review and, where appropriate, release of individuals detained in the recent demonstrations.
o Immediate lifting of any restrictions currently imposed on those CUDP leaders and members not detained.
o Immediate access by families, legal counsel and the international Red Cross and or other appropriate representatives of the international community to jailed CUDP, civil society and media leaders, as well as provision of medicines, food and other humanitarian needs.
o Notification to families of names and whereabouts of detainees, together with appropriate access and provision of humanitarian needs.
o An independent investigation of the deaths and injuries arising from recent events and the events in June.
o Review and revision of parliamentary rules and practices to ensure that all parties represented in parliament can participate on a fair and representative basis.
o Reopening of the private media and promotion of a code of conduct for the media to ensure a balanced and responsible flow of information to the public.
o Appointment of a national election board in consultation with the parliamentary opposition”

The European Union and the United States are duty bound to enforce these demands if they are serious about advancing freedom and democracy in Ethiopia.