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By Fareed Zakaria | NEWSWEEK
Many in Washington have described Russia’s attack on Georgia as a turning point in international affairs. Pundits thunder that we are returning to an age of great-power conflicts. Globalization and integration have been exposed as shams. Russia is playing this new Great Game with ruthless brilliance and we—the United States and Europe—are foundering. As events unfold, however, almost all of this instant analysis will prove sensationalist, misguided and incorrect. It’s certainly true that today’s world is characterized by the emergence of new powers like China, Russia and India (a phenomenon I have termed “the rise of the rest”). This is not a contradiction of globalization but a consequence of it. Economic growth is producing new centers of influence. And that’s leading to greater national pride, confidence and assertiveness. But there are also powerful new countervailing forces—yes, of globalization and integration—that are working to mitigate nationalism and unilateralism.
The attack on Georgia will go down not as the dawn of a new era of Russian power but as a major strategic blunder. Look at what has happened. Russia has scared its neighboring states witless, driving them firmly into the arms of the West. For almost two years, Poland had been dragging its feet on the American proposal to deploy missile interceptors in that country as part of a continent wide shield (a few months ago public support for the shield varied between 15 and 25 percent). Within days of the Russian attack, Warsaw agreed to the deployment. Ukraine had long been divided on whether to have closer ties to the West. A few years ago, 60 percent of the country wanted some kind of federation with Russia instead. Now the Kiev government has unhesitatingly asked for a path to NATO membership.
Vladimir Putin has done more for transatlantic unity than a President Barack Obama ever could. The United States and Europe are now in greater strategic agreement than at any point in the last two decades. Even the autocracies in the Caucasus have reacted negatively to the attack, refusing to endorse Russia’s actions and legitimize the new facts on the ground. China has refused its support. And what did Russia get for all this? Seventy thousand South Ossetians.
Several diplomats and commentators have compared the attack on Georgia to the Soviet Union’s invasions of Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968. I think a more telling historical parallel might prove to be the invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Then, as now, a Kremlin elite drunk on high oil prices foolishly overreached and triggered a countervailing reaction in the region and across the world.
The truth is, we’re not in the 19th century, where the Russian intervention would have been standard operating procedure for a great power. In fact, only 50 years ago Britain and France clung to their colonies—in Algeria, Vietnam, Kenya, Cyprus—with much greater determination and violence than has Moscow. By contrast, this is the first time since the breakup of the Soviet Union that Russia has sent troops into a neighboring country (a country that it had ruled since 1801). Its actions are deplorable but the reaction to them —worldwide—is a sign of how much the rules have changed. President George W. Bush seemed to understand this when he spoke of Russia’s behavior as being unacceptable “in the 21st century.”
Diplomats are now searching for ways to make Moscow pay some price for its actions, to weaken its standing in international bodies, suspend some agreements, break some joint enterprises. These are all worth looking into but it’s also worth noting that we only have this leverage with the Russians because we have spent the last two decades building up ties with them. In fact, the real challenge we face in dealing with Moscow is that we have too few such ties and, as a result, too little leverage.
The problem is not that Russia has been integrated into a world order that has failed to deter it, but rather that the country remains largely unintegrated—and thus feels it has little to lose by breaking the rules. Some of Moscow’s isolation may have been caused by Western foreign policy—certainly that is the Russian perception—but more has to do with oil. As the price of oil and other natural resources has risen over the past decade, Russia has become more dysfunctional, corrupt, dictatorial and assertive. And oil wealth everywhere—from Venezuela to Iran to Russia—breeds independence from and indifference to international norms, markets and rules.
The single best strategy for bringing Russia in line with the civilized world would be to dramatically lower oil prices, which would force the country to integrate or stagnate. Pending that, we should shore up Georgia and assist countries like Poland and Ukraine. At the same time we should stay engaged with the Russians so that we continue to work on issues of common concern—like nuclear proliferation—but also to develop leverage with them. A strategy that further isolates Moscow would only reduce the levers that we have to affect its behavior.
Imagine if we had kicked Russia out of the G8 and broken most ties with Moscow—as the Republican nominee, John McCain, and many neoconservatives have long wanted to do. Then, when the Russians attacked Georgia, we would have had only two options—appeasement or war.
9 thoughts on “Russian’s major strategic blunder”
Hellow Friends on this Planet,
I watched the comments from the CNN, I felt it is the most funny story that we see and read from the western world.
The USA and the European Union gave recognition to Kosov a part of Serbia and parts of former Jugoslavia.
Why in the name of God/Allah these wertern world got crazy when the parts from Georgia declared theselves independent and recognized by Russia.
Is any hidden international relations and foreign policies for different parts of the world.
When the americans and Europeans stop their dirty hipocracy and double standard and try to play fair play.
The west still are dreaming colonizing the whol world, that is their problem not Georgea or Russia.
Yours
Aba
The article Does not deserve any factual backing. Just a copy of America’s barking Dog Shekashvili. Russians are strong enough to resist any pressure from outside. American hegomony will never exsist any more in world pilitics. Zekaria have been told on CNN on the program He produced himself by a russian Ministr of information. If he is ready to learn something what political truth is. It is time for Zekaria to stick to his professional ethics than serving as a long arm of American political Propaganda !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The last two decades we witnessed the west boasting the defeat over moscow and collapse of the soviet union. Politics was made that affects the lives of millions. My opinion is the west didn’t do that much necessary enough to embrace russia in all kinds of cooperation. I am wondering how severe would moscow be affected by the political rethoric of the west since russia I think can reject or accept every thing altogether. I mean this a country which has every thing and produces every thing it needs on its own soil together with veto power in UN and the blessing of its vast natural gas and oil. Wait and see.
Why on earth a far away government travels all the way to Russian doors and place dangerous misiles here and there, teasing and provoking a super power until nerves became tight,understandly. Who can stand such wanton and blatant aggression endlessely?
The cnn parrot is only parroting other people’s opinion with out having his own original insight at all.
May be the Bush administration and the republical far rightists are trying to practice their usual provocative tricks inorder to make it look like that this world is so bloody dangerous and it is only the republicans and its government who can properly handle such dangerous develpments, say through battleman John McCain as commander in chief but never Obama.
I think that it is only Bush, Condi and the NeoCons dirty trick to cheat Obama and the democrats out of their victory. Some of their European surrogates are still beating the war drum and trying to keep the heat on Russia. Very childish and very funny!
On top of that, one habitual provocative parrot calling himself Shekashvili armes innocent people and jumps in to open warfare barking and hauling far and wide and confronting one of the world’s major military and economic power. The end result? roundely beaten like a mad dog and flushed out of the whole area within few minutes.
The Russians almost captured the trouble maker with little or no effort what so ever.
don’t forget that Russia still has a nuclear bomb that can oblitrate the world ten times.We have seen for the past 20 years that how dangerous a single super-power/USA could be .This world needs to have a multi-polar super-powers to preserve peace.If the west wants to dectate Russia,It is not Iraq.It is long over due that Russia took this long to show the west its military might.
Fareed needs to take his blinders off.
He above all should know the difference
between local and international.
It is amazing to read this unbalanced article with the narrow vision. The blunder was made by sarcashvilli when he massacred 2000 civilian in south Ossetia. The so called civilised world massacred more then a million innocent iraki’s just for oil. Americans didn’t expect this when they adviesed georgia to attack south Ossetia. THE bLUNDER OF BUSH administration distabilise the world peace. gave rise to Alquida! Osama and the rest of Binladens were the Darling of Bush and DickCheny. Common guys back to your sense. Ofcourse it is sad to see the innocent victims in these power struggle. But Russians made their point clear. Soth Ossetia and Abhazia are Independent nations.
God bless Russia
The article is laughable..it’s the west that has to lose a lot from this…It’s the west who invested on little Pinochet, Sakhasvilli to attack Russia. Russia, during times of weakness simply watched Nato’s eastward expanshion right into its borders..but not anymore and it’s a very welcome resistance against the imperialist us and its puppets in Europe.Welcome to the multipolar world baby!
I’m not finished yet guys..I find this guy very immature..I used to watch him but now looks like just every other self appointed policy lecturer…