Special Report
United States Institute for Peace
Global efforts to combat terrorism and the pressure to implement democratic reforms have collided in Ethiopia in recent years. The contradictions and challenges in these objectives became even more apparent after the country ’s flawed 2005 elections and a violent crackdown by Ethiopian security forces. In addition, sizable Ethiopian diaspora communities in the United States and Europe have changed the dynamics of international engagement, both in the elections themselves and in post-election disputes. Domestic pressure groups, concerned governments, human rights organizations, and Ethiopians abroad exerted strong pressure on international donors to end or limit funding of the regime. Meanwhile the Ethiopian government exercised significant regional influence by invading Somalia in December 2006. At the same time it burnished its image as an important ally in Washington’s war on terrorism.
Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and his party, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), have deftly manipulated internal and external threats. At various times regional involvements in Somalia and Eritrea have provided useful distraction from deteriorating domestic politics and human rights violations by state security. More than two years later, the contested election of May 2005 and the even more contentious post-election standoff between the ruling party and opposition parties remain pivotal to understanding both Ethiopia’s internal political situation and other important conflicts in the region, particularly in Somalia.
Approaching the third round of multiparty elections in spring 2005, analysts were guardedly optimistic that these elections would advance the democratic process the country had undertaken in the fifteen years since the Derg military dictatorship fell. Yet the election results caught political analysts and many Ethiopians off-guard, not only because of the surprisingly strong showing of opposition political parties, but also because of the rapid descent into violence and political division that followed a peaceful and well-attended voting day. Since then both domestic and regional politics have deteriorated, and regional conflict and authoritarian governance have increased.
The elections suggest that sharp divisions among political elites in Ethiopia and among the various ethnic and regional communities have been salient since at least 1991, when the Derg fell. Under the ruling party rural voters have made small but significant economic and sociocultural gains (such as autonomy for ethnic groups in language choice). Material improvements in social services and rural infrastructure have surpassed those of previous regimes in modern Ethiopian history. At the same time local government authorities and institutions have become increasingly repressive, particularly in the countryside.
The urban populace is divided and extremely hostile to the regime in power. Advances in the cities and towns, while impressive, have failed to keep pace with the expectations of a restive and politically engaged voting population. Finally, much of the sizable and politically active Ethiopian diaspora is extremely hostile to the prime minister and the EPRDF leadership. It aggressively seeks to undermine the regime through public rallies in western capitals and new technologies such as the Internet.
In many ways these three communities—urban, rural, and diaspora—have such divergent interests that no one political party could hope to appease them all. The EPRDF certainly has not managed to. Its primary base of support outside the Tigray region comes from rural areas, particularly those that have been historically excluded and least developed.
It has shown itself willing to use lethal force, belying the rhetoric of democracy that distinguished it from previous regimes. Since the disputed 2005 elections and a brutal crackdown by the ruling party ’s security forces, opposition political parties have fragmented, unable to maintain a coalition that might effectively challenge the EPRDF under current electoral and institutional structures. Some of the largest ethnic communities, particularly the Oromo and Somali, have little if any political representation and are subject to regular and violent human rights abuses. Finally, insecurity throughout the Horn of Africa, and Ethiopia’s role as both instigator of instability and regional enforcer, puts it at the center of a rapidly developing regional crisis… – continue reading [click here]