Ethiopia has had little experience with elections. Several powerless parliaments were chosen over the decades, with few voters and minimal consequences. When the Derg fell and the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) was consolidating its power, the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) realized that the invitation they got to participate in government and an election was intended to co-opt them, not to share power with them. The Oromos — the biggest ethnic group in Ethiopia — turned it down and and withdrew to the political margin where they have usually been. The government-created Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO) remained their sole voice, such as it is, in the EPRDF.
Prime Minister Meles Zenawi remains the only leader the EPRDF, the ruling party, has had since before they took over in 1991. The Tigre People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) created and still controls the EPRDF. Although there are non-Tigreans in the power structure, even in senior positions, the TPLF dominates the party and Meles controls the TPLF.
How to square this with elections? The answer is simple: you can’t. By definition, elections are intended to distribute power according to ballot results. In Ethiopia — not alone in this — being voted out is not an acceptable election result. It will not be allowed to happen.
In 2005, Ethiopia was recovering from war and drought. It had successfully broken its promise and dodged the postwar border decision from The Hague. All four guarantors of the agreement (the UN, US, EU and AU) looked the other way. There had been several good harvests, foreign aid was pouring in and coffee prices were recovering.
A few small parties emerged to contest the election. Several of them combined to present a meaningful challenge. Badly misreading the public mood, the overconfident EPRDF allowed unprecedented public debate on the all-important broadcast media. The public was riveted by the broadcasts and voter registration surged. An opposition rally in Addis Ababa just before election day drew a crowd some estimated at close to a million! Even if inflated, it was a huge and peaceful assembly. The government’s counter-rally gathered a respectable but smaller crowd.
On election day so many voters lined up that some polling stations were forced to stay open well past midnight. Some estimated that an unheard of 90% of registered voters actually turned out. Why did they show up in such numbers? What where they thinking? In a country without a democratic tradition, with low rates of education and literacy, why were so many people willing to stand in line for hours to vote…a concept many probably didn’t fully understand? And what happened to those emotions?
Many voted against the government. The EPRDF lost the entire City Council in Addis Ababa and was badly beaten in parliamentary races in many urban areas, where the results became known quickly. In a panic, the government barred election observers (including the Carter Center) as the majority of the ballots — Ethiopia is 80%+ rural — were counted. The opposition, without evidence, claimed it had won. The government, also without evidence, claimed it had won. To no one’s surprise, the government won big.
The streets of Addis were soon filled with uniforms and armored vehicles. I saw them myself, having arrived in Addis a few days after the election, and was there when violence broke out. It followed a familiar pattern, one that I had also seen in the 1960s when student protesters marched against Emperor Haile Selassie. Angry students gathered, shouting abusive language and refusing to disperse when ordered to do so. Shots were fired, far more shots than in the 1960s and with many more casualties. There were several public clashes and altogether nearly 200 were killed.
When the dust settled, tens of thousands had been rounded up and sent to detention camps. Most were soon released. Many opposition leaders were arrested, charged with treason and released 18 months later in a deal intended to blunt their political careers. The parties they had created were infiltrated, splintered and effectively neutered. One, Birtukan Mideksa, the most popular opposition figure in the country, was rearrested. She remains in jail.
The EPRDF is not going to let history repeat itself. Under intense pressure, the surviving opposition have tried to mount election campaigns, but they are small, weak, underfunded and harassed by government supporters. A few have been killed, including both candidates and supporters. The government claims that one of its people has been killed. Much of the violence is in Oromia, but also in Tigre, where an embarrassing home-province challenge to the TPLF emerged.
The number of victims is small but the message is unmistakable. Running against this government is dangerous. There are periodic reminders of just how dangerous. With the outcome never in doubt, the courage of the opposition is impressive. The strength of the government’s response reveals its anxiety.
Questions come to mind. What happened to 2005’s enthusiasm? Forgotten? Stored away for another time? No one saw trouble coming in 2005. Could something similar happen in 2010…after the elections, if not before? The students again? Is the government show of force aimed at them in particular, reminding them of the cost of protest? The EPRDF’s own leadership — Meles himself — left the campus to fight the Derg…
(Shlomo Bachrach was on the staff of Peace Corps/Ethiopia following several years as a lecturer at Haile sbachrachSelassie I University in Addis Ababa. He is currently editor of East Africa Forum, a news group and online archive of news from the Horn of Africa at EastAfricaForum.net. Shlomo has another blog on our site: The Arts: Music of the World.)
LEWISBURG, PENNSYLVANIA — In December, an Ethiopian court sentenced Bucknell University Professor of Economics Berhanu Nega, former mayor of Addis Ababa, to death in absentia for terrorism.
Q: Your colleagues and friends understand that this charge is bogus, but do you hear from others who don’t?
A: I haven’t heard from anyone who takes this as a serious judicial decision — only the Ethiopian government and its blind supporters. Even the government knows that the decision of the court is nothing but a reflection of the regime’s desires rather than based on any reasonable evidence. It sends a message to the public — there is no court to save you, you live by our rules, if you question our rules, we will do what we want, and no one will stop us.
Q: The death sentence is real, and you were jailed under the Zenawi government. Are you afraid?
A: One of the reasons you struggle for freedom and liberty is because you feel that life isn’t meaningful without liberty. I am not worried — not because the government would not try to harm me, but I now live in a society of laws that will protect me. You can’t live in fear. If you allow this kind of fear to determine your actions, dictatorships will exist forever.
Q: What sustained you while you were imprisoned?
A: First, the Ethiopian people and their yearning for freedom. While I was incredibly disappointed by U.S. and European policymakers and diplomats when I was in prison, I also was hearing about Bucknell, my colleagues, students and people at other universities supporting freedom. This connection at the human level, that people love and support freedom everywhere, recognizing that freedom is a human condition, is the hope for humanity that keeps you going. It was a source of hope for me when I was in prison, and I suspect for all people fighting for liberty around the world.
Q: What is your hope for Ethiopia?
A: Unless the international community takes the position of outrage as it did in Guinea, the government will not change. The brutality of this regime is mind boggling. This is a government known for committing genocide against its people. Its basic strategy is to stay in power by terrorizing people and by dividing them on primordial grounds. There are several groups fighting against the government. Unless there is a serious intervention, the whole region will blow up. I encourage Western policymakers to recognize what is happening and adjust their policy before it is too late to make a difference. The only credible and durable solution for the region, in my view, is the democratization of Ethiopia.
It is election season in California. Two positions are open. The governorship and Federal Senate positions are up for grabs. Both parties, that is the Democrats and Republicans are going thru the primary process to nominate their strongest candidates for the November elections. November is Six months away but the contest is becoming hot.
Television and radio are the two preferred medias to reach the electorate. We are being inundated by sleek commercials costing millions of dollars. The candidates are spending their own money, their supporter’s money and their friend’s money as if it grows on trees. There is no such thing as ordinary elections. It is both art and a science. Nothing is left to chance. Commercials are prepared after a lengthy process of focus groups, pools, psychological impact, sociological studies and good old ‘makes me feel good’ assessments.
There have been lengthy debates between the contestants organized by independent groups. Free, vibrant and long debates on issues are standard. There is a media watch group checking all the facts thrown by the candidates. A small mistake can be their undoing, so they are very careful before they open their mouth. They avoid what is known as ‘foot in the mouth disease’. Supporters organize town hall meetings, neighborhood functions and public rallies to introduce their candidate. Fans put signs on their front lawn, windows, cars and every conceivable open space to advertise their preferences. They set up phone banks to call every voter, prepare mailers, use their email accounts and move heaven and earth to reach every last voter.
There is no such thing as government imposed ‘Election code of conduct’ on the candidates, journalists or the party’s. The local Police, State Police and the Federal police (FBI) are not part of the equation. The State has not yet threatened the candidates regarding their positions on issues and the possibilities of being charged for their frank opinions. The Governor has not warned the party’s regarding any wild intentions of withdrawal from the election. No one has offered to come and observe the election. The candidates have not requested observers either.
The candidates know that the voter is sovereign. They are no attempt to belittle the citizen or intimidate an opponent. It is not acceptable behavior. One-person one vote is the rule. It is not always perfect but there is no organized attempt to steal, cheat or exclude.
The voting in our neighborhood is conducted in a small church around the corner from our house. They have a roll of names from DMV, check your name and hand you a ballot. Ethiopians that have arrived a matter of six years ago and that have acquired US citizenship can vote. The only requirement is citizenship and age.
It is election season in Ethiopia too. Citizens are voting for membership in the Federal Parliament. The Party with the highest number of winners will form the next government. That is well and good, but as they say the ‘devil is in the details’. There are a few issues we have to clarify in this Kafkaesque process of election in Ethiopia. Kafkaesque is an apt description of what is billed as election. Here I am using the term to mean ‘intentional distortion of reality, senseless disorienting, often menacing complexity and a sense of impending danger’ by the one party state.
To begin with there is the ‘National Election Board of Ethiopia’ (NEBE) appointed by the ruling party. The members of this government body owe their allegiance to the party. Please see PM Meles’s interview with Stephen Sackur’s regarding the election board. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pY2NNOYKM8M) Their survival depends on the whims of the Prime Minster and his TPLF party Politburo (it is an old Soviet term to mean Central Committee of the ruling mafia group). It is alive and well in Ethiopia. There is also an ‘Election Code of Conduct’ proposed as (‘”I’m gonna make him an offer he can’t refuse” kind) and a few ‘chosen’ ones signed the contract. The ‘code of conduct’ is an all-reaching agreement that controls the activities of the Party’s, the Media the Candidates and the air they breathe. It is entirely drawn by the ruling TPLF party and the TPLF appointed Judiciary is the final arbitrator of all issued raised. If the election is a football match this will be analogous to having the TPLF assign the referee, linesmen, the football rules and is in control of the stadium with its own security force.
There are over eighty political party’s registered by NEBE. All but less than five are organized by the ruling TPLF party. Most exist by name only to be activated on a need basis. They can field candidates recruited by the regime, accept state funds thru the ruling party and show up for make believe debates and official functions. They have assigned ‘leaders’ from their own ethnic group but TPLF cadres (mostly Tigrai) run the show from behind.
The fantasy created is so real that it puts real competition to shame. There are candidates but they cannot campaign, meetings are allowed but meeting venues are closed or owners of such places as hotel halls or parks are threatened by the state not to allow opposition activities. Candidates meetings with their constituents are discouraged by arresting and intimidating their supporters. Please read Dr. Negasso Gidada’s article (http://ethioforum.org/wp/archives/1451) Debates are held but since all parties are counted as real the opposition ends up with a fraction of the time. The opposition candidates have to be careful what they say in the heat of the debate since the Prime Minster have warned about the dangers of prosecution after the election.
The opposition cannot campaign in the Kilils due to fear of intimidation and the real danger of being beaten, jailed, and property like cars, video cameras damaged. Please see Dr. Merera’s report regarding his visit to Moyale (click here). The only exception seems to be in Tigrai due to the fact that the candidates were former members of the ruling party and seem to have clout in the military. It is ‘check mate’ situation in Tigrai. The rest of the Kilils are like the American ‘wild west’ where might is right.
Television and radio are the sole property of the TPLF party. The opposition is given the two minutes during debates that are also delayed for ‘editing’ purpose while the ruling party is allowed twenty-three hours and fifty minutes. The independent ‘print media’ has been decimated thus it does not play any significant role while make believe ‘independent’ newspapers are a few but loud.
Supporters of the opposition Party cannot campaign door to door, neither holds meetings in their own houses nor put up placards on their cars or front door. It will surely invite catastrophe and this fact is clear to all. The mere attempt of wearing T-shirts with the opposition name and picture is a criminal offense. The law to watch out regarding meetings is the new ‘terrorist’ law passed after the last election. Please see Human Rights Watch analysis of the law here.
Election observers are members of the TPLF party and its junior affiliates. Foreign observers are a few in number and rendered ineffective by the ‘code of conduct’ that specifies no video, no picture and no interview in the pooling places. Ferenji philosophy is ‘I will not tell unless you complain’.
Suffice to say that the only thing the two elections have in common is the word ‘election’. In California the citizen is free to make his choice without undue pressure from anyone. In California the chances of electing the most capable person for the position is statistically high. In California the candidates have utilized every available media to let the citizen know their stand on issues. In California the Kilil and the Federal government have taken ‘hands off’ attitude and recognized the right of the citizen to make a decision based on his own conscience. In California the ‘candidates’ are not threatened with harm, their family and friends intimidated or stay up all night gripped with fear of what tomorrow might bring.
In Ethiopia the election is over before it started. For the opposition it is what is called as ‘fait accompli’ situation. That means it is over before you know what happened and it is not reverse able. As the sun will rise up from the East tomorrow morning TPLF (EPDRF) will have a majority in parliament, Ato Meles will be elected Prime Minister and more than ten million Ethiopians will wake up hungry with no prospects for a good lunch the day after the ‘democratic election’.
In this election over half of the country is closed to the opposition. There have been three reported incidents of candidates being murdered the last two months. The one Party State has been known to use lethal force on its citizens. It is a clear warning of what is to come. There are not enough brave souls that are foolish enough to tempt fate and stand for elections. In the Democratic Republic of Ethiopia the Chairman of the strongest opposition party is jailed on trumped up charges (Chairman Bertukan Mideksa). The logo of the opposition is awarded to an affiliate of the ruling party (CUDP logo to EDP). The name of the opposition party is handed to ‘hand picked’ leader (CUD to Ato Ayele Chamiso). Even the Chairman of an opposition party is removed from his position and a new one replaced by the NEBE (Dr. Merera and ONC). In Ethiopia the chances of electing the most capable person is nil, zero none.
Please note this not due the Ethiopian people being stupid and incapable. It is due to a lack of good governance. Election 2005 marks a watershed in our country’s history. It showed us that our people embrace the concept of good competition and fair election. The road to the elections were the most exiting, hopeful and a rebirth of the good old Ethiopian ‘free and proud’ mindset. The atmosphere was ripe with anticipation and people were filled with purpose and unity. That Ethiopian sense of ‘not trusting’ was hovering in the background but we choose to believe that a positive outcome was possible. What can I say the Nation was drunk with hope?
The ruling party sent all kinds of signals to show that it hasn’t changed. A few candidates were murdered and some beaten. We knew it was part of the ‘weaning process’ of a Party that was used to violence. You just can’t expect them to quit cold turkey. The PM raised the specter of ‘interhawme’. Alarms were raised and dismissed. Another hiccups we thought. The May rally at Meskel Square was our epiphany. At last we knew that we are good people that can unite for a great purpose. Please read Ato Debebe Eshetu’s article on Awramba Times. Meskel Square showed that under the right conditions we are capable of rising above religion, ethnic affiliation and social class.
We come to the most important question now. Why participate in such a farce? The real answer is, it does not really matter much. Why discuss something that is insignificant in the great scheme of life. What is true is that a democratic election is a process of building a successful, growing and peaceful society. Those countries that hold democratic and free elections have a stable, peaceful and healthy society. Those that deny the basic right of their people suffer from civil war, insurrection and a miserable population always on the verge of catastrophe.
The Ethiopian election is not democratic. The Ethiopian Nation the TPLF leaders have built for the last eighteen years has not borne any fruit. It has only exacerbated the problems they inherited from the failed Junta dictatorship. The TPLF philosophy is not capable of growing the economy, creating real peace and having a happy, healthy and content population. The economic system of favoring an ethnic group to lord it over all others does not work. The idea of a single ruling party and ethnic group monopolizing both the military, and the business sector does not work. The concept of power emanating from above and treating the population as serfs does not work.
Thus electing some members from Medrek, some from AEUO, EDP and others is not a game changer. The problem is not the number of party’s. The system itself is the problem. With the Ethiopian system the question is not a matter of fine-tuning it. It is a complete overhaul that is called for. Party’s can go ahead participate to their hearts content, but remember other than creating employment for a few more individuals it is not going to make an iota of difference. And arguing whether to participate or not at this eleventh hour is only to create a distraction from the shameless act that is to follow. Just do not expect us to cry when you scream foul because Meles cheated or your behind is hauled to Kaliti for further schooling on the true nature of a dictatorial one party state. We promise not to say ‘we told you so!’ Furthermore, this business of bitching because you are not offered a solution is very lame. If someone tells you jumping from a cliff will kill you it doesn’t mean that not jumping will help you solve your problem. Telling you not to jump gives you another chance to contemplate, and to find a lasting solution that will prevent you from entertaining this crazy idea of trying to solve a fundamental problem by ending your life.
ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA (Bloomberg) — An activist campaigning for Ethiopia’s opposition Medrek alliance was shot dead in a rural part of Oromiya, the third killing in a week in the southwestern region ahead of elections on May 23.
Girma Kabe was killed on May 4 in the North Shewa district, Negasso Gidada, a Medrek official, said in a mobile-phone interview today.
“He was posting posters in daylight and he was shot,” Negasso said. “Our people say it was a deliberate political killing.”
Tensions have been rising in Oromiya ahead of this month’s vote. On May 7, two people were killed in southern Oromiya when an unidentified person threw a hand grenade at a meeting celebrating the 20th anniversary of the Oromo People’s Democratic Organization, which support’s Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.
The man who killed Girma may be a member of a militia loyal to Meles’s Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, said Merara Gudina, a leader of Medrek’s ethnic Oromo wing. The EPRDF said Girma was involved in a personal dispute and was a supporter of Meles’s party, which has ruled the Horn of Africa country for the past 19 years.
“He was not killed by our security and our militia,” said Zelalem Jamanie, an executive committee member of the EPRDF’s ethnic Oromo wing, when reached on his mobile phone today. “The person who killed him, he has his own private gun. There is some problem between them.”
Oromos are the largest ethnic group in Ethiopia, though national politics in the country has been dominated for more than a century by politicians and feudal lords from the smaller Amhara and Tigrayan ethnic groups.
Security forces loyal to Meles killed at least 193 people in the aftermath of Ethiopia’s disputed 2005 elections. Medrek leader Birtukan Mideksa remains in jail under a life sentence after being charged with treason following that poll.
To contact the reporter on this story: Jason McLure in Addis Ababa via Johannesburg at [email protected].
ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) — Ethiopia’s ruling party accused the opposition on Friday of killing one of its candidates ahead of this month’s national election, in an allegation denied by the main opposition alliance.
Both sides have stepped up rhetoric ahead of the May 23 election — the first vote in the Horn of Africa country since 2005 when a disputed poll ended with street riots and the jailing of politicians.
Ethiopian government spokesman Shimeles Kemal said one of the ruling party’s candidates had been stabbed to death, in a first murder accusation against Medrek, the country’s main opposition coalition.
“Itana Idossa was stabbed to death by Medrek members a week ago after he left a meeting,” he said. “Police have apprehended suspects — Medrek activists.”
Medrek dismissed the accusation. “The people who killed him have no connection with us,” Merera Gudina, leader of one of the coalition parties, the Oromo Peoples’ Congress, told Reuters.
The ruling Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front is expected to win the election comfortably. Medrek is seen as the biggest political force challenging the 19-year-old government of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.
At the time of the 2005 vote, the government said the violence was part of a plan to force an unconstitutional change. Security forces killed 193 people on the streets and top opposition leaders were imprisoned. Seven policemen were killed.
The opposition says their candidates and voters are harassed and intimidated. The government, for its part, says the opposition plans to incite street violence and discredit the poll because it has no chance of winning.
The political climate in Ethiopia is watched closely by investors eyeing oil and gas exploration and large-scale farming projects there.
Last month, a senior Medrek official, Bulcha Demeksa, said an opposition activist was bludgeoned to death with a gun butt by ruling party members.
The ruling party responded by saying the man died of cancer and vowed to prosecute Bulcha. On Thursday, the man’s father told Voice of America radio station that his son was beaten to death by government militia men.
Both killings happened in the Oromia region, home to Ethiopia’s biggest ethnic group, the Oromo, who number 27 million out of 80 million people.
In March, a Medrek candidate in the north of the huge country, Aregawi Gebre-Yohannes, was attacked and stabbed to death. The opposition says his killing was a political murder, but the government says he died in a bar fight. A man has been sentenced to 15 years in jail for his murder. (Reporting by Barry Malone, editing by George Obulutsa and Maria Golovnina)
ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA (Bloomberg) — Ethiopia’s ruling party (Woyanne) has increased harassment of opposition supporters before a May 23 election in the Horn of Africa country, opposition coalition leader Prof. Merara Gudina said.
Activists loyal to Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front have thrown stones at his car, breaking its windows and puncturing its tires over various occasions while campaigning in the Oromiya region in the past two weeks, said Merara, who is a parliamentary candidate.
“It looks like sort of a war, not an election,” Merara said in a phone interview from the capital, Addis Ababa, today.
Public meetings for Medrek, an alliance of opposition parties, are often blocked by local officials in Oromiya, Merara said. Medrek leaders have been barred from hotels and from buying fuel in some areas of the region, he said. The ruling alliance is defending a majority of 400 seats in the 537-seat parliament.
A video camera was stolen that had been used to document what activists described as abuses, Merara said.
Government spokesman Shimeles Kemal could not immediately comment on the allegations when reached on his mobile phone. Seikuture Getachew and Hailemariam Desalegn, spokesmen for the ruling party, did not answer calls to their mobile phones.
Two Medrek activists have been killed since March. The government has denied the two deaths were connected to the campaign.
The opposition is planning to use violence to topple the government, Tedros Hagos, head of the political bureau of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front which rules the country in a coalition with Meles’ party, said on April 28.
Security forces loyal to Meles killed 193 demonstrators in the aftermath of the country’s disputed 2005 poll. Opposition leader Birtukan Mideksa is in jail on a life sentence for treason given after the election.
