Ethiopia has had little experience with elections. Several powerless parliaments were chosen over the decades, with few voters and minimal consequences. When the Derg fell and the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) was consolidating its power, the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) realized that the invitation they got to participate in government and an election was intended to co-opt them, not to share power with them. The Oromos — the biggest ethnic group in Ethiopia — turned it down and and withdrew to the political margin where they have usually been. The government-created Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO) remained their sole voice, such as it is, in the EPRDF.
Prime Minister Meles Zenawi remains the only leader the EPRDF, the ruling party, has had since before they took over in 1991. The Tigre People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) created and still controls the EPRDF. Although there are non-Tigreans in the power structure, even in senior positions, the TPLF dominates the party and Meles controls the TPLF.
How to square this with elections? The answer is simple: you can’t. By definition, elections are intended to distribute power according to ballot results. In Ethiopia — not alone in this — being voted out is not an acceptable election result. It will not be allowed to happen.
In 2005, Ethiopia was recovering from war and drought. It had successfully broken its promise and dodged the postwar border decision from The Hague. All four guarantors of the agreement (the UN, US, EU and AU) looked the other way. There had been several good harvests, foreign aid was pouring in and coffee prices were recovering.
A few small parties emerged to contest the election. Several of them combined to present a meaningful challenge. Badly misreading the public mood, the overconfident EPRDF allowed unprecedented public debate on the all-important broadcast media. The public was riveted by the broadcasts and voter registration surged. An opposition rally in Addis Ababa just before election day drew a crowd some estimated at close to a million! Even if inflated, it was a huge and peaceful assembly. The government’s counter-rally gathered a respectable but smaller crowd.
On election day so many voters lined up that some polling stations were forced to stay open well past midnight. Some estimated that an unheard of 90% of registered voters actually turned out. Why did they show up in such numbers? What where they thinking? In a country without a democratic tradition, with low rates of education and literacy, why were so many people willing to stand in line for hours to vote…a concept many probably didn’t fully understand? And what happened to those emotions?
Many voted against the government. The EPRDF lost the entire City Council in Addis Ababa and was badly beaten in parliamentary races in many urban areas, where the results became known quickly. In a panic, the government barred election observers (including the Carter Center) as the majority of the ballots — Ethiopia is 80%+ rural — were counted. The opposition, without evidence, claimed it had won. The government, also without evidence, claimed it had won. To no one’s surprise, the government won big.
The streets of Addis were soon filled with uniforms and armored vehicles. I saw them myself, having arrived in Addis a few days after the election, and was there when violence broke out. It followed a familiar pattern, one that I had also seen in the 1960s when student protesters marched against Emperor Haile Selassie. Angry students gathered, shouting abusive language and refusing to disperse when ordered to do so. Shots were fired, far more shots than in the 1960s and with many more casualties. There were several public clashes and altogether nearly 200 were killed.
When the dust settled, tens of thousands had been rounded up and sent to detention camps. Most were soon released. Many opposition leaders were arrested, charged with treason and released 18 months later in a deal intended to blunt their political careers. The parties they had created were infiltrated, splintered and effectively neutered. One, Birtukan Mideksa, the most popular opposition figure in the country, was rearrested. She remains in jail.
The EPRDF is not going to let history repeat itself. Under intense pressure, the surviving opposition have tried to mount election campaigns, but they are small, weak, underfunded and harassed by government supporters. A few have been killed, including both candidates and supporters. The government claims that one of its people has been killed. Much of the violence is in Oromia, but also in Tigre, where an embarrassing home-province challenge to the TPLF emerged.
The number of victims is small but the message is unmistakable. Running against this government is dangerous. There are periodic reminders of just how dangerous. With the outcome never in doubt, the courage of the opposition is impressive. The strength of the government’s response reveals its anxiety.
Questions come to mind. What happened to 2005’s enthusiasm? Forgotten? Stored away for another time? No one saw trouble coming in 2005. Could something similar happen in 2010…after the elections, if not before? The students again? Is the government show of force aimed at them in particular, reminding them of the cost of protest? The EPRDF’s own leadership — Meles himself — left the campus to fight the Derg…
(Shlomo Bachrach was on the staff of Peace Corps/Ethiopia following several years as a lecturer at Haile sbachrachSelassie I University in Addis Ababa. He is currently editor of East Africa Forum, a news group and online archive of news from the Horn of Africa at EastAfricaForum.net. Shlomo has another blog on our site: The Arts: Music of the World.)
3 thoughts on “Why the current rash of political murders in Ethiopia?”
I was follwing your writing until I reached your disrespect for Hailesellassie. I am not neither previlaged nor neglected Ethiopian. I am the average common Ethiopian. I am not trying to defend the King either but he did something you would never do for yourself at the time. You display in your writing a kind of behaviour that makes you look small, uneducated, aloof and shalow. If it wasn’t for him you would have been still in a village fighting against nature. The king did mistakes because nobody is perfect. If your question is why was he a king? you need to know about TIME & SPACE. You don’t have to disrespect some one you disagree. Good day brother.
The big question that all Ethiopians must answer is, is it possible to have peaceful struggle in Ethiopia under a minority dictatorship? Is it really possible to change the current government at the ballot box? I don’t think so, there is no way.
Our current opposition leaders should not be expected for another form of struggle as they are too old with serious health issues. Although I don’t trust Berhanu Nega, I like his idea of arm struggle,removing the government by force. Guys, Ethiopia is in Africa and the guy is Meles Zenawi, wake-up from dream.
In Meles Zenawi’s Ethiopia, what is more important than the mother of democracy itself is how to stay in power. This being achieved via stealth street smarts, in a way fool the white man’s naive souls and gain unfattered support. Also, the way to silence oppositions that has mass support by any and all means, including deceptive tacts that can fool shallow minds of Ethiopians. Case in point, the killings of the police named Ragassa, can fool many shallow, simple minds.Almost sounds and looks as the Medrak have something to do with it! but, but calm down, take deep breath and think! How would a KILLERS woyane police who killed him so ralaxed, fear less to admit it so quickly? Do you find it unrealistic that these Oromo boys just run and impliment such crimes? If who promise what in return these boys would do such a terrible thing? Trust me, Hi ranking Meles Zenawi Official granted these boys, safety, a lots of money, so that these fellows admit the guilts of the Tigre of Meles Zenawi have committed. Doctor Merara, has no power nor Money to promise any of these guilt admitters. Nor has any blood ties as always a case in Ethiopia, where such grizzley crime takes only if they have blood ties may be!
Here what we need to understand is the killers are Oromos as alleged, the victim is as we see, these are double win for Meles Zenaw. For Doctor Merera, killing Oromo using another Oromo is a double loss, if he is as such pro nationalist.
The membership of Medrak registration cards are invalid, any person can get these cards, for all citizens can register to vote, especially those who are trained to commit crimes could grab it to use it for such unholy smear tacts. Meles and his polit elites designed these for smear, destroy Doctor Merara, from the current including all political spheres of Ethiopia. Why would they do it? Had true democracy existed in Ethiopia, Ato Merera and Ato Bulcha can bring the needed 50% of Ethiopian votes, siye may bring in 10% the deal would be closed to unseat Meles and his Mafia. They know these and the Meles et al have made calculated unholy moves. To be cont…