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ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA – Ethiopia’s government The Woyanne dictatorial regime in Ethiopia is coming in for fierce criticism over a draft law before parliament that would prohibit or criminalize many activities of foreign charities and NGOs. VOA’s Peter Heinlein in Addis Ababa reports the bill is almost certain to pass easily in a legislature overwhelmingly controlled by Ethiopia’s ruling party.
Ethiopian Woyanne officials have told western diplomats that parliament will approve a proposed Charities and Societies Proclamation within weeks. The bill would give the government supervisory powers over non-governmental organizations that receive at least 10 percent foreign funding, including money from Ethiopians living abroad.
The text before lawmakers prohibits such NGOs from promoting democratic or human rights, the rights of children and the disabled, and equality of gender or religion. Violators could face up to 15 years in prison and fines up to $10,000.
Foreign NGOs have reacted with alarm to the bill, saying it could make it impossible for them to operate in Ethiopia. A group of ambassadors in Addis Ababa recently warned Ethiopian Prime Minister Woyanne dictator Meles Zenawi that passage of the Charities and Societies Proclamation could mean the loss of untold millions of dollars in desperately needed aid.
The organization Human Rights Watch issued a statement urging Ethiopia’s lawmakers to reject the bill, calling it ‘repressive’. But the leader of an opposition parliament faction, Bulcha Demeksa, said he and like-minded lawmakers are powerless to stop it in the face of an overwhelming ruling-party majority. “The government is going to silence the NGOs and their leadership when they speak about human rights, when they spoke about democratic rights, when they spoke about giving democratic education to the citizens.”
He continued, “The government does not like it, that is why the government wants to silence them, and I am very sorry about it, I am very hurt about it. I wish I could do something about it, because practically all the NGOs are doing something good for this country.”
A senior adviser to the prime minister dictator, Bereket Simon, says NGOs will still be welcome to help fight poverty. But he says the bill is designed to prevent foreign interference in the country’s political affairs. “We need foreign NGOs to participate in poverty alleviation programs and to participate in development works, but we definitely believe the political realm must be left for Ethiopians. That is the prerogative of Ethiopians.”
Tom Porteous, the U.K. country director of Human Rights Watch says laws governing the behavior of foreign NGOs can be positive. But he says the draft before Ethiopia’s parliament is contrary to the country’s constitution. “NGOs should not be immune from accountability, and we would support efforts by the Ethiopian Woyanne government to increase the accountability of civil society organizations.”
Porteous added, At the same time, many other countries in Africa have managed to achieve this without criminalizing human rights activities for example, and in fact this law contravenes not only international and regional African treaties on freedom of association and so forth, but it actually violates Ethiopia’s obligations under its own constitution.”
Ethiopian Woyanne officials, however, say they see nothing repressive or unusual about the draft law. Bereket Simon says NGOs who stay out of Ethiopia’s internal affairs should have nothing to fear. “It is not repressive, because this is a matter that is between Ethiopia and foreigners, so foreigners have their domain, we have our domain. As a sovereign state which runs Ethiopia, we are designing our own law, and any foreigner who is ready to work in Ethiopia should come and see the law, and if it feels comfortable with the law, it can continue to work. If he does not feel comfortable, then we are not going to force them to work here.”
Bereket says the law is aimed partly at what he described as ‘NGOs collaborating with terrorist organizations’. He declined to elaborate.
There are an estimated 3,000 NGOs in Ethiopia. Their combined budgets are believed to be more than $1 billion a year.
Last year, Ethiopia’s Woyanne government expelled the International Committee of the Red Cross, charging its workers with providing assistance to rebels fighting for independence in the country’s Somali region known as the Ogaden. The ICRC dismissed the allegations.
Ethiopia is Africa’s second most populous nation, and one of the world’s largest recipients of international aid. The United States is the largest single donor to Ethiopia Woyanne, with aid donations this year expected to top $800 million.
ADDIS ABABA (Xinhua) – Ethiopia’s dictator Meles Zenawi on Monday held talks with Alain Le Roy, United Nations under-secretary-general for peacekeeping operations, focusing on a joint peacekeeping mission in Sudan’s Darfur region.
During their talks, Meles reassured Ethiopia’s commitment to support peacekeeping operations undertaken by the UN across the world.
Ethiopia will continue to support continental and international efforts to ensure peace and stability in countries of the region, Meles added.
After the talks, Roy told journalists that the talks were on various continental and international issues of importance.
He said a thorough discussion was held especially on the security affairs of the region and problems in Sudan and Somalia in a bid to find long-term solutions.
The discussion further focused on the UN-African Union hybrid peacekeeping mission (UNAMID) in Darfur, Sudan, which, according to him, is becoming successful.
Roy said Ethiopia’s contribution to UNAMID is praiseworthy.
The two sides also discussed the United Nations Mission to Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE), which ended its mission recently. Helauded Ethiopia’s cooperation with the mission.
The UN official said he has been visiting the Horn of Africa in a bid to familiarize himself with the region.
Roy was appointed in late June to oversee almost 110,000 personnel serving in 20 peace operations around the world.
NAIROBI, KENYA (APA) – The Kenya police in the Eastern province on Tuesday arrested 65 Ethiopian youths along the Nairobi-Mombasa highway in a suspected human trafficking syndicate, the state owned television, Kenya Broadcasting Corporation (KBC), reported.
The aliens who had no proper identification papers were packed in a 20feet container when police intercepted the trailer carrying the container at Machakos district in eastern Kenya, (70km south-east of Nairobi).
Police had been tipped about the illegal consignment by a member of the public who heard the yells of the aliens as they hit the walls of the container on the bumpy road, KBC reported.
The area police chief, Patrick Lumumba, was quoted saying that the youths were tightly packed amid the sweltering heat and they could be heard screaming inside the container meant for transit good every time the trailer hit a bumpy part of the road.
While questioned, the Ethiopians said that they were escaping from unemployment from their home country and were heading to South Africa en-route Kenya.
They revealed that another group of 200 Ethiopian youths had used similar tricks to migrate to South Africa, adding that relatives living there had helped them to get jobs in the country.
The youths aged between 20 to 28 years claimed they hail from Southern Ethiopia and were all jobless.
Police have launched investigations into the matter, saying it is unclear how they managed to cross over the border into Kenya without the necessary documents.
It is gratifying to know that Ethiopian Americans are carrying their fair share of the load in helping the economy of their homeland. It was an eye-opening revelation to learn that Ethiopian Americans contributed a cool $1.2 billion to the Ethiopian economy this past year. That is “only second to the amount generated by Ethiopia’s exports.” Last week Elias Loha, Manager of Reserve Management and Foreign Exchange Market of Ethiopian National Bank, fretting over “a cut in vital remittances from Ethiopians in the United States” told Reuters: “We are concerned and worried that as a result of the financial crisis… some of the Ethiopians may loose their jobs and as a result they may stop sending money to help their families back home.” Could that be a backhanded way of giving us teeny-weeny credit for the much vaunted stratospheric “10 percent a year economic growth” Zenawi gasbags about? Regardless, there seems to be manifest alarm in Zenawi’s officialdom that the Ethiopian-American goose may not be laying as many golden eggs as it has been previously because of the sub-prime mortgage debacle.
The $1.2 billion figure came as a pleasant and unexpected surprise for many Ethiopians who regularly send money to their families or make remittances for other purposes. The official figure most likely underestimates the actual figure since the National Bank does not have the data collection mechanisms to accurately gauge the remittance flow in the informal channels or in the underground economy. For instance, a 2006 World Bank study suggested that if remittances sent through informal channels are included, total remittances in recipient countries could be as much as 50 per cent higher than the official record. What surprised most Ethiopian Americans aware of the staggering contribution was the fact that remittances substantially exceed the total amount of U.S. aid given to Ethiopia. Evidently, such massive infusion of money could have significant and decisive implications for Ethiopian society, but there are few systematic studies on the impact of remittances on the Ethiopian economy. We do not know if the $1.2 billion dollars we sent alleviated poverty or deepened the inequality in Ethiopia between remittance recipients and the vast majority of people who do not receive them. Did our remittances help reduce the poverty rate in Ethiopia or place an added burden on the poor by grossly distorting the local economy? Is the $1.2 billion we sent last year or the hundreds of millions in prior years in some part responsible for the current high inflation, high food and fuel costs and stratospheric housing prices? Is there evidence to show that the billion plus dollars we sent contributed to economic development in Ethiopia? Would a significant decline in remittances by Ethiopians in the U.S. have positive effects on the economy by alleviating inflationary and other pressures? What is the relationship between increased levels of remittances and the “brain drain” of highly skilled workers from Ethiopia? Do our remittances provide economic buoyancy to help keep afloat the doomed ship of a ruthless dictatorship? We just don’t have the empirical data to answer these questions.
The Evidence on Remittances, Growth and Poverty
Although there are few studies on the impact of remittances on the Ethiopian economy, there is an emerging body of empirical literature on the subject in the Asian and Latin America contexts. The top recipient countries of recorded remittances include India ($21.7 billion), China ($21.2 billion) and Mexico ($18 billion). Africa receives only 4 percent of total remittances made to developing countries. The International Monetary Fund Yearbook (2006) reports that 5 African countries enjoy the highest remittance flows relative to their size (based on both ratio of remittances to GDP and export earnings); these include Lesotho, Cape Verde, Guinea Bissau, Senegal and Togo.
The available data on the impact of international migration and remittances on economic growth and poverty is not definitive, but there seems to be general consensus that remittances have a positive impact on the reduction of the employment and poverty rates in recipient countries. For instance, a study of 74 low and middle income developing countries done by the United Nations Population Fund in 2006 concluded that there is statistically significant correlation between remittances and decline in poverty. The study suggested that a 1.2 percent reduction in the poverty rate could be achieved by a 10 percent increase in the share of remittance in a country’s gross domestic product (GDP). Other studies in the Asian context suggest that remittance inflows could accelerate entrepreneurial activity in households by obviating credit restrictions. According to the World Bank, the more remittances a country receives, the higher its creditworthiness and the easier access it has to international capital markets. Remittance inflows are also said to have multiplier effects (money used to create more money) making a significant contribution to savings and investments in recipient countries. One study of Tunisian workers, for instance, showed that workers who had limited access to bank credit or the financial market used remittances for investment purposes. Other reported benefits of remittances include improved financing in health care and education and reduction in child labor in recipient countries.
There is also a body of literature that casts doubt on the relationship between remittances and economic growth in recipient societies. There is some evidence to suggest that remittances in Latin America have had only short term positive impact on poverty by increasing the income of recipients, but no appreciable effect on economic growth. A number of other studies have suggested that the primary use of remittances in recipient countries is to raise the recipients’ level of consumption with the balance going into home building, debt repayment and the financing of future migration by other members of recipients’ households. Some scholars have argued that remittances indirectly but negatively affect labor supply in recipient countries by encouraging some recipient households to work less, creating a “moral hazard” in which remittances spawn an informal “welfare” system. Concern has also been expressed by some economists that large and sustained remittance inflows could result in the so-called “Dutch Disease” problem, whereby remittances cause an increase in the real exchange rate (how much one currency is worth relative to another) and make the production of tradable goods sector (e.g. exports) less profitable. For instance, a study of 13 Latin American and Caribbean countries showed that remittance inflows into these countries caused an increase in the exchange rate which reduced the value of exports and the competitiveness of the recipient countries’ export sectors.
Do our Dollars Help or Hurt Our People?
There are few studies that have examined the relationship between remittances and economic consequences in Ethiopia. One of the few systematic and enlightening studies on the subject was done by Dejene Aredo of Addis Ababa University in 20051. Aredo’s study lends some interesting insights on the role of remittances and their impact on the economy, particularly in the urban areas. Aredo examined the effect of remittances (both domestic and foreign) on urban households who are “more vulnerable than rural households to different sorts of urban shocks” (e.g. effect of structural adjustment programs [i.e. to get World Bank or IMF loans, a country must do what it is told] on urban workers, higher rates of HIV/AIDS, withdrawal of government subsidies for targeted programs, higher rate of poverty among female-headed urban households, higher incidence of homelessness and unemployment, disproportionate impact of global financial crises, etc.). Aredo found that a “considerable proportion of sampled households (16.63%) received remittance from abroad.” International remittances (77 percent) exceeded domestic ones (23 percent) “both in terms of volume and per capita flows.” Urban households received remittances at a higher frequency during the month suggesting that remittances were used “largely to cover day to day consumption expenditures.” Only 1.1 percent of remittances in the sample were used for investment purposes, 1.7 for savings and 2.8 percent for asset purchases. Aredo also found that women got more remittances than men from both international and domestic sources, suggesting that “remittances are a means by which poverty among the most vulnerable groups of society, i.e. female-headed households, is partially addressed.” Based on his findings, Aredo suggests that “with increased remittances, it is possible to cover a substantial portion of the resource gap and reduce poverty by half by the year 2015.” He also suggests implementation of a more comprehensive policy to tap into available Diaspora funds beyond the regime’s policies (e.g. removal of import tariffs on certain goods, land grants for home building, bank deposit in foreign exchange, etc.).
The jury is still out on the impact of remittances on the Ethiopian economy. The available data is insufficient to determine whether remittances from Ethiopians in the United States alleviate poverty, accentuate existing inequalities or contribute significantly to economic development, job creation and investments. The preliminary evidence suggests that remittances can cushion the “ever-deepening poverty and vulnerability to recurrent shocks” of urban households, particularly female-headed ones. Aredo’s study appears to suggest that “in the absence of credit and insurance market (even in urban areas), vulnerable households attempt to smooth their consumption by partially relying on both sources of remittances (i.e. domestics and international), while households with stable and high incomes rely heavily on international remittance transfers for investment or other purposes (other than for consumption smoothing purposes).”
What Can We Do As Ethiopian American “Remittance Donors”?
Remittances are essentially private transfers of wealth with potentially significant economic and political consequences in recipient countries. In Ethiopia, $1.2 billion in remittances in one year appear to represent the largest source of foreign exchange earnings, rivaling and/or exceeding export revenues, foreign aid, foreign direct investment or other private capital flows. If we as Ethiopian Americans collectively remit (“donate”) well over a billion dollars a year, that effectively makes us a major stakeholder in the economic well being of our country. Obviously, the regime’s “concern” with declining remittances has to do with the potential evaporation of foreign exchange reserves caused by job losses of Ethiopians in the U.S. World Bank data does not support their concern. In fact, there is evidence to suggest that there tend to be more remittances in an economic downturn, political crisis, natural disaster, famine or war than in normal circumstances. But as “remittance stakeholders” our issues transcend the regime’s insatiable appetite for foreign exchange reserves. Our issues are different: Do we have an obligation to carefully analyze the economic impact of our financial transfers on economic growth and poverty in Ethiopia? Do we have any political or moral responsibility in the way our remittances are used in the country? Could we be spreading the “Dutch Disease” to Ethiopia by massive remittance infusions? Do our remittances provide a mechanism to those in power to substitute remittances as anti-poverty programs and avoid long-term development efforts? If our remittances tend to increase income inequality between recipients and others, do we have an obligation to rectify that imbalance through remittances to charitable organizations? How can we help build institutional capacity without building and fortifying the current repressive dictatorship? Do our remittances indirectly support, prolong and entrench the one-party, one-man dictatorship in Ethiopia? These are questions properly put to Ethiopian economists.
In terms of prescriptive remittance policies, various scholars have proposed initiatives in three categories: 1) policies that maximize remittance savings in national financial institutions in recipient countries, 2) policies that promote investment among recipient households while minimizing consumption, and 3) policies that are aimed at promoting infrastructure development funded totally or partially by “collective” remittances. One area of exploration for Ethiopian Americans should be “community development” totally or partially funded by “collective” remittances. For instance, some Mexican migrants in the U.S. have formed hometown associations that raise funds for their communities of origin and spend those funds on community development projects such as improving water supply and quality, health and educational services, etc. In some cases, their contributions have been matched by the Mexican federal and state governments. The Overseas Pakistanis Foundation, a non-profit organization with headquarters in Islamabad provides investment advisory and facilitative services to returning Pakistanis who seek to establish businesses. At the institutional level, India and Pakistan have offered specialized incentives for their “Diasporic” citizens to set up or expand businesses, particularly in economically backward or depressed areas. Commercial banks in El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala have remittance policies that offer higher interest rates on term deposits and foreign currency denominated banking accounts. Undoubtedly, Ethiopian economists could develop a whole list of creative uses of remittances for maximum local benefits. Beyond the need for substantive policies, better data collection and analysis on the multifaceted aspects of remittances is needed. Without such data, much of the analysis and policy prescriptions are likely to be speculative and not particularly useful in maximizing the positive impact of remittances on the Ethiopian political economy. Needless to say, it is awfully nice to know that there are some in Ethiopia who are concerned about the economic health of the Ethiopian American goose that lays the golden eggs. But does the golden goose have to be a cash cow too?
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1 http://www.gdnet.org/pdf2/gdn_library/global_research_projects/macro_low_income/Aredo.pdf
KHARTOUM (Reuters) – Sudan summoned the Kenyan and Ethiopian Woyanne ambassadors on Monday to protest against what it said were illegal shipments of arms to its semi-autonomous south, state media reported.
Khartoum was protesting over “violations” linked to an arms shipment seized by pirates off Somalia’s coast that Western diplomats said was bound for south Sudan, and a plane-load of weapons from Addis Ababa, state news agency SUNA reported.
SUNA stopped short of accusing Ethiopia and Kenya of directly supplying the arms to south Sudan, which won its own government and the right to its own army in a 2005 peace deal with Khartoum that ended a two-decade civil war.
But it said that “against the backdrop” of the two shipments, the foreign ministry asked both envoys to “inform their governments of its protest at these violations”.
The move raised the heat in a simmering row over the shipment of 30 tanks seized by pirates last month off Somalia that western diplomats said were heading for south Sudan in possible breach of the peace agreement.
The pirates, who are still holding the cargo, said paperwork showed the tanks were heading to south Sudan through Kenya’s port of Mombasa. South Sudan has denied ordering the tanks and Kenya has insisted the machines were meant for its own army.
MILITARY PLANE
Sudan’s foreign ministry also protested about unspecified weapons that it said had arrived in south Sudan’s capital Juba on Friday on an Ethiopian military plane, SUNA said.
Southern officials and army officers on Monday denied the weapons were part of an arms delivery and told Reuters they had been brought in as exhibits in a long-planned trade fair.
Lieutenant General Biar Ajang of the south’s Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) said that rumours of an Ethiopian delivery of armaments were “confused”.
“They are coming to show local products, tents, uniforms, armaments, shells … like a shop,” he said.
Ethiopia’s Consul General Negash Legesse told Reuters some of the weapons had been taken to SPLA headquarters for inspection. “They are samples. Some Kalashnikovs. Some others that Ethiopia is producing,” he said.
Sudan’s foreign ministry said it was surprised at the shipments as both Kenya and Ethiopia had backed a 2005 peace deal that ended the civil war between north and south Sudan, SUNA said.
There are currently no global arms embargoes banning south Sudan from buying arms or supplying the SPLA.
But the terms of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement ban both the north and the south from building up arms without the approval of a north-south Joint Military Board.
Activists have repeatedly accused the northern Khartoum government of also re-arming, and of breaching the terms of a U.N. arms embargo covering the warring parties in the separate Darfur conflict.
(Additional reporting by Skye Wheeler in Juba, editing by Mark Trevelyan)
Aid agencies are warning that Ethiopian authorities are under-estimating the scale of the country’s drought.
Official estimates of the number of people facing hunger and hardship stand at 4.6m but agencies warn the real figure could be more than 8m.
There is also confusion over the amount of money needed to meet the crisis, with the Oxfam agency estimating it at about $500m.
However, the United Nations reports that $772m has already been pledged.
Proud people
Ethiopia is in the grip of severe food shortages after rains failed across a large swathe of the east and south of the country.
But attempts to deal with the crisis have been hindered by disputes over the number of people affected.
In April the first government appeal spoke of more than 2m in need of food aid. By June that figure had risen to well over 4m.
Aid agencies now say the official estimate has reached 6.4m – but has not yet been released.
But, say the agencies, even this underestimates the scale of the problem.
Ethiopians are a proud people, who hate the image of their country forever extending a begging bowl. And they are suspicious of the motives of the aid community.
In an interview with Time magazine in August, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said there were pockets of severe malnutrition but that the situation was manageable.
He questioned the way some agencies operated, saying they tended to use “hyperbole” to get the aid they needed.
“That can convey the message that the situation is hopeless when in fact it is not,” said the prime minister.
Yet if the 8m figure is correct, and if this is added to the approximately 7m who are chronically short of food, then as many as 20% of all Ethiopians could need food aid this year.
Oxfam has just released a fresh appeal. It says the aid required is $260m short of its target.
But figures produced by the United Nations office for the co-ordination of humanitarian affairs show that $772m has already been pledged, the vast majority from the US, which has nearly trebled its aid to Ethiopia this year.
The current crisis in Ethiopia is being lost in a swirling mist of competing figures.
