We are learning that the division within the ruling junta EPRDF is deepening by the day and by the hour as they squabble over who will replace Meles Zenawi continues. Making things even more complicated is that widow of the late dictator, Azeb Mesfin, is refusing to vacate the prime minister’s residence until a new prime minister is selected. The EPRDF 180-member council is called to replace Meles next week, but some thing may explode before the meeting, according to observers in Addis Ababa.

Author Tesfaye Gebreab has this (tongue-in-cheek) advise to his former comrades:

የኢህአዴግ የስልጣን ሽኩቻ ተባብሶ በመቀጠሉ የአመራር አባላቱ ዝግ ስብሰባ ላይ ስለመሆናቸው እየተሰማ ነው። ይህን ሽኩቻ ከህዝብ ጆሮ ለመሰወር ሲባል ስለ ኢህአዴግ ስራ አስፈፃሚ ስብሰባ በቴሌቪዥን የተላለፈው ቀሽም ድራማ ነበር። የአመራር አባላቱ እጃቸውን እያወጡ ድምፅ ሲሰጡ በቲቪ ይታያል። በምን ጉዳይ ላይ ነው ተከራክረው በድምፅ ወሰኑት? አልተገለፀም። ከኢህአዴግ ነባር ልምድ አንፃር፣ ከስብሰባው በፊት ጋዜጠኞች ገብተው ምስል ቀርፀው እንዲወጡ እንደሚደረግ አውቃለሁ። ከዚያም በሮችና መስኮቶች ተዘግተው ስብሰባው ይቀጥላል።

ሆነው ሆኖ፣ የመለስ ሞት ከተጠበቀው ጊዜ ፈጥኖ የመጣ ነበርና ጓዶች ያልተዘጋጁበት ገጥሟቸዋል። መለስ ጷግሜ ላይ ወደ አገርቤት ተመልሶ ለእንቁጣጣሽ ዋዜማ የፖለቲካ እስረኞችን በመፍታት፣ እስርቤቱን ባዶ ያደርገዋል ተብሎ እየተጠበቀ እሱ ግን እንደወጣ ቀረ። እንግዲህ ህይወት መቀጠሏ አልቀረም። በችግር ጊዜ መረዳዳት ያለ ነውና፣ የቀድሞ ጓደኞቼ ምናልባት ከሰሙኝ አንዳንድ ጠቃሚ ምክሮችን እዚህ ላስቀምጥ።

የጠቅላይ ሚኒስትርነቱን ቦታ ለሃይለማርያም ከመስጠት የተሻለ ምንም አማራጭ የለም። በዚህ ጉዳይ ላይ ልዩነቶች እየጠበቡ ስለመጡ ይህ ችግር አይመስለኝም። ርግጥ ነው፣ ሁሉም የአባል ድርጅቶች ሃይለማርያምን የሚፈልጉበት የየራሳቸው ምክንያት አላቸው። በጥቅሉ ግን ‘ቢያንስ ሃይሌ አይከዳም።’ ተብሎ ይታሰባል። ሃይለማርያም ወንበሩን የሚረከብ ከሆነ የራሱን ካቢኔ ለመቋቋም መጠየቁ መረጃ አለ። መረጃው ግን አጠራጠሮኛል። ሃይሌ ከጀርባ የሚገፋው ከሌለ ብቻውን ያን ያህል አይዳፈርም። ስለቡድን አሰራር ደህና አድርገው አጥምቀውታልና፣ በአንጋፋዎቹ እየተመከረ ስራውን ሊሰራ ራሱን አሰናድቶአል። በባህርይው ለስላሳ በመሆኑ ትእዛዝ ይጥሳል ተብሎ አይጠበቅም። ህወሃት ሃይለማርያምን በደንብ እየተቆጣጠረ ለማሰራት፣ ከአንጋፎቹ አንዱን አማካሪ አድርጎ መሾም ነው። አርከበ እቁባይ፣ አባይ ፀሃዬ፣ ስዩም መስፍን የሚሉ አሉ። በውጭ ግንኙነት ልምድ ስላለው ስዩም ይሻላል። አባይ ፀሃዬ የጀመረውን ይጨርስ። በተለይ የዋልድባ ነገር ከስኳር ምርቱ ይልቅ ከጎንደር – ትግራይ ድንበር ጋር የተያያዘ የመሬት ባለቤትነት ጉዳይ ስላለበት፣ ያንን ዳር ማድረስ ይገባልና አባይ ፀሃዬን መንካት አይገባም። … [read the full text here]

Analysis

By Graham Peebles | Ceasefiremagazine.com

In the wake of the death of Ethiopia’s long-serving PM, Meles Zenawi, two weeks ago, Graham Peebles argues this could be the best opportunity in a generation for Ethiopians to secure a more equal, more independent future.

The death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, announced on 22^nd August after his mysterious two-month disappearance, presents a tremendous opportunity to Ethiopia. Let a new day dawn for the people, one filled with hope and fundamental change, where human rights and justice are respected, where freedom is encouraged and cultivated in all areas and where fear is banished to the past.

Meles rose to power as a revolutionary to overthrow a dictatorship. Ironically he too fell under the spell of power, and the freedom fighter became the dictator, the greatest obstacle to freedom and liberty. He had been in power since 1991, when the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) led a coalition of armed opposition groups in overturning the rule of Mengistu Haile Mariam.

Control and repression

No matter the repeated accolades and platitudes expressed by heads of State upon his passing, let us be clear: PM Meles Zenawi presided over an undemocratic regime that repressed the people, tolerating no political dissent, and as Human Rights Watch state in One Hundred Ways of Putting on Pressure, “since the controversial 2005 elections – Ethiopia has seen a sharp deterioration in civil and political rights, with mounting restrictions on freedom of expression, association, and assembly.”

In fact under Zenawi’s leadership the EPRDF government have trampled on the human rights of the Ethiopian people, centralised power, falsely imprisoned in large numbers of members of opposition parties and journalists and responded with brutal force to demonstrations after the 2005 sham poll – when security forces murdered over 200 innocent people on the streets of Addis Ababa. Not to mention the killings of hundreds of people in Gambella, the persecution of the people of Oromia, along with human rights violations in Afar and the Ogaden.

The media is party/state controlled, so too is the sole telecommunications company, as well as the judiciary, all of which is contrary to federal law as enshrined in the constitution. PM Meles, whose record, as the BBC rather generously phrased it, “has, at best, been patchy and rather uninspiring” has “orchestrated a discreet purge of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) and the administration, demoting, sidelining or reassigning key potential rivals and opponents.” As the Inter Press Service (IPS) succinctly put it, he “ruled with an increasingly authoritarian fist for more than two decades”. Let us hope such times will now be consigned to the murky past.

Unity – The way forward

If responded to with intelligence and love, patience and tolerance, the political space created by Meles’s departure could be a beginning in which firm and lasting steps towards an open, just, free civil society may be taken, broad ethnic participation encouraged and divisions set aside. A peaceful social revolution, long overdue, in which the perennial values of democracy are fostered, enabling the people to step out from the repressive shadow of the late prime minister and his EPRDF dictatorship and unite as one people, diverse yet unified, synthesising the many and enriching the country. Such is the opportunity at hand. As such, the keynote for the time ahead in Ethiopia should be unity, unity in diversity.

There are a great many ethnic and tribal groups in Ethiopia, some 77 according to the US State department, “with their own distinct language. Some of these have as few as 10,000 members.” The people of Oromo make up the single largest group and along with Amhara and Tigreans account for around 70% of the 85 million population. A further division exists along religious lines, with roughly 50% Orthodox Christian – living mainly in the highlands and 50% Muslim, inhabiting the lowland regions. Historically these two groups and the government have co-existed peacefully.

However, as the International Crisis Group’s (ICG) report ‘Ethiopia after Meles’ states:

“tensions are mounting between the government and the large Muslim community. Muslim committees have protested perceived interference in religious affairs. The authorities sought to link their demonstrations to Islamic extremism and terrorism, and Meles exacerbated matters by accusing the protestors of “peddling ideologies of intolerance”

This from a man who effectively outlawed all political dissent and banned freedom of expression. Christian Orthodox priests have also protested political interference and expressed their support for their Muslim brothers.

Such religious discord needs a sensitive response, not cliché name-calling. Predictably the T word has been wheeled out by a government that has sought to impose ideological control in every area of Ethiopian society, including the church. Let such repressive practices be buried along with Prime Minister Meles and let the current EPRDF government learn what is perhaps the greatest lesson of responsible government: to listen to the people yhey are in office to serve.

Designed to divide

Amharic is the official language and until recently was used in primary school instruction. It has been replaced in many areas by local languages such as Oromifa and Tigrinya, reinforcing ethnic divisions that contrary to the policy of ‘Ethnic Federalism’ designed by the TPLF, have been strengthened under the Meles premiership.

The highly centralised EPRDF has employed divide and rule tactics to weaken political opposition, fuel separation along ethnic lines, disempowering the community, engendering competition for land and natural resources as well as for government funds. Fragmented ethnic groups competing for resources and bickering amongst themselves have little time or energy to protest government policy and make easy prey for a regime seeking total control.

Division spawns conflict and, as the ICG found, “Exclusion and disfranchisement have provided fertile ground for ethnic and religious radicalisation, already evident in some lowland regions, where the ruling party exploits resources without local consent.” Massive land sales is one issue alluded to here; displacing thousands of indigenous people, forcing subsistence farmers and pastoralists off the land, destroying large areas of forest and wildlife habitat, that for a few dollars are turned over to international corporations who cultivate crops for their home market. All of which, let us add, without any form of consultation with local groups.

Democracy is participation, the opportunity before Ethiopia is to create an environment in which participation is encouraged and the people have a voice, where unity is seen as the means and the goal; where the Oromo people, those in the Ogaden, Amhara and Tigrae and the other ethnic groups are fully included and the development of community groups is facilitated.

The opposition and diaspora

Under the Meles regime not only have the main Ethnic groups been divided and disempowered, but so too has the diaspora opposition, too weak and ineffective. Fractured and despondent activists and opposition members of the various bodies need to unite at this time of uncertainty and opportunity and work collectively to establish a dialogue with the EPRDF government.

A national dialogue is needed in which opposition groups inside and outside the country and the people, for too long silenced, are allowed to participate and indeed be listened too. Such a move would set a new and inclusive tone and would engender hope that the ruling EPRDF recognises the mood of the country.

The diaspora’s role is crucial in any movement towards democracy in Ethiopia. Consensus amongst the various factions is essential and ideas of opposition, the pre-occupation of the past, that serve only to strengthen division and thus play into the hands of the EPRDF, forgotten. Constructive creative contributions should be encouraged, holding in mind the underlying principle of unity to soften government resistance to change and cultivate trust. As the ICG expresses it:

“Opposition forces may now be able to agree on a basic platform calling for an all-inclusive transitional process leading to free and fair elections in a couple of years. Such an arrangement should include all political forces armed and unarmed, that endorse a non-violent process to achieve an inclusive, democratically-elected regime.”

The Federal Constitution, written by the TPLF, full as it is of articles of decency and acceptability, disregarded by the government, is vague and ambiguous regarding the process of transition and succession in the event of the Prime Ministers death. On Aug 23, Al Jazeera reported that “The Ethiopian parliament has been recalled from recess to swear-in Zenawi’s successor, Hailemariam Desalegn, the deputy prime minister, who will most likely lead Ethiopia until 2015, when the current term of the ruling party comes to an end.”  This is by no means certain, as Desagelen is reportedly unsure about accepting the mantle of PM.

A provisional cross party government is called for. One with broad support that would initiate reforms, repeal the unjust Anti Terrorist Proclamation and other repressive legislation, free the media, most importantly television and radio and begin to build a vibrant active civil society. Such progressive steps would establish the foundations of a strong democratic platform that could be developed up to and after the 2015 elections.

Responsible support and development

The development much championed in Ethiopia – where the partisan distribution of aid, including emergency food relief, is an open secret – does not correspond to a definition that those who believe in equality, justice, human rights, and freedom of expression would recognise. As Al Jazeera reported two weeks ago, “Zenawi has been praised for bringing development and economic growth to one of Africa’s poorest nations but his critics say that came at the cost of respect for democracy and human rights.”

To put Ethiopia’s much trumpeted economic growth in perspective, let us note that the average annual income in Ethiopia equates to just $3 a day. Food staples have quadrupled in price in the last four years, largely as a consequence of the extensive land sales, and according to Bloomberg Business, Ethiopia’s “annual inflation rate climbed to 34.7 percent in May as food prices surged, Inflation accelerated from 25.6 percent in the previous month, food prices jumped 41 percent in the year.“

In addition the gap is increasing between the majority who are poor and the small number of wealthy Ethiopians, who are primarily members of the ruling party, as IPS reported on 22 Aug, “development has yet to reach the vast majority of the country’s population. Instead, much of this wealth – and political power – has been retained by the ruling party and, particularly, by the tiny Tigrayan minority community to which Meles belonged.” These party members have followed the trend of other dictatorships and invested their accrued wealth overseas.

Development and democracy are closely related, not some western idea of democracy, but a living social movement of participation and inclusion, evolving out of the actions and creativity of the people themselves. An idea PM Meles did not recognise. The ICG report quotes Meles stating he did not “believe in bedtime stories and contrived arguments linking economic growth with democracy.”

In truth he did not believe in democracy at all. The price of his short sightedness and ideologically-driven policies has been paid by the people, whose human rights were ignored, and freedoms stolen.

Suppressed and silenced for too long, now is the time to listen to their cries for justice and freedom. All efforts should be made to encourage and mobilise the people of Ethiopia. It is not simply calm that is needed, as many have reiterated, but action. It is time for the people, so long inhibited to act, to demand their rights and express their vision for the future of their country.

Ethiopia is the recipient of over $3 billion of development aid a year, second only to Indonesia. The US, Britain and the EU, along with the World Bank are the main donors. In exchange for what amounts to over a third of Ethiopia’s annual budget, the west has a strategically placed ally in the Horn of Africa who will act when asked to and function as a military outpost for America who launch drone attacks from its soil.

Those supporting development within Ethiopia share the opportunity and responsibility for change within the country. Mediation between the various ethnic groups and political parties, encouraging openness and facilitating discussion is an obvious role that could and indeed should be undertaken.

Required action

In order to realise the opportunity before Ethiopia, certain basic steps showing a renewed adherence to international and federal law need to be taken immediately by the EPRDF:

• All political prisoners must be released.
• The internationally-condemned Anti Terrorist Proclamation repealed
• Freedom of the media, assembly and dissent allowed

These are fundamental requirements in moving Ethiopia forward and establishing an atmosphere of hope that will encourage political and civil participation and safeguard against the potential radicalisation of opposition groups.

International donors need to recognise their collusion in a range of human rights abuses that have taken place under PM Meles and ensure these demands are acted on, linking development assistance to swift implementation. Human Rights Watch (HRW) has asked of “Ethiopia’s international partners [to] call on the government to support fundamental rights and freedoms in the country and a prompt rollback of repressive laws. Ethiopia’s government should commit to respect for human rights and core rights reforms in the coming days and weeks”.

Denied good governance for many years the people of Ethiopia have suffered much, too much and for too long. Let the current space afforded by the passing of PM Meles be filled with their united voices, articulating their grievances, expressing their hopes and concerns, and with the responsible support of international friends and partners demand fundamental change, freedom and social justice, long overdue.