The Tigrean People Liberation Front (TPLF), the leading party in the ruling coalition in Ethiopia, the Ethiopian Peoples’ Democratic Front (EPRDF), is preparing to eliminate potential threats to its continued dominance by conducting purges in the EPRDF rank, according to the latest information we have received from Ethiopian Review Intelligence Unit sources in Addis Ababa.
In a series of meetings over the past few days with members and supporters inside the country and around the world, the TPLF leadership heard earful that under no circumstance the premiership should go to Hailemariam Desalegn or any one who is not a member of the TPLF.
The other members of the ruling coalition, namely OPDO, ANDM and SEPDM, seem to be equally determined to swear in Hailemariam as the new prime minister of Ethiopia.
Both sides are being led by powerful personalities. The TPLF side is being led from behind the scene by 80-year-old Sebhat Nega, while the ANDM-OPDO-SEPDM side is being led by propaganda chief Bereket Simon. Both Sebhat and Bereket are known to be masters of political intrigue and maneuverings.
Balance of power
On Sebhat’s TPLF side there are the military, which is led by Generals Samora Yenus and Saere Mekonen, and the security/intelligence, which is led by Debretsion Gebrmichael and Getachew Assefa.
On Bereket-Hailemariam’s side there are the notorious Federal Police whose head is Workneh Gebeyehu, the Addis Ababa Police, local militias, and a large populous that is tired of being dominated by one minority ethnic group. OPDO is armed to its teeth, and Addis Ababa police is led by Hassan Shifa of TPLF, but most of its members are from ANDM and OPDO. The officers could back Bereket-Hailemariam’s side. Another big asset for the Bereket side is local militias that are dispersed through out Amhara, Oromiya and southern regions. They can be instrumental in blocking any military movement by the TPLF generals.
The balance of power favors the Bereket-Hailemariam group, but Sebhat’s TPLF seems to be more determined and ready to sacrifice any thing and every thing to stay in power. They have the mindset of all or nothing, which makes them dangerous.
Knowing the nature of TPLF, the question now is, who is going to blink first? Or, more aptly asked, who is going to be breakfast?
On August 20, following Ethiopia’s meticulously choreographed funeral for former dictator, Meles Zenawi, which was designed to buttress his legacy, a friend asked me to listen to the United States Ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice’s encomium on the deification ceremony. I obliged but regret doing so because I came out a cynic.
It is no secret that US national interests trump human rights and democracy. In an oft repeated quote, Franklin D. Roosevelt said of US ally Nicaraguan dictator Anastasio Somoza: “He may be a son of a bitch, but he’s our son of a bitch.”
In the past, the US had pampered dictators like the Shah of Iran, Mobutu Sesse Seko of Zaire, and the CIA engineered the assassination of democratically elected leaders in Latin America and other places to install their puppets. Now that the Cold War is over, I believed those were things of the past, and that American foreign policy is, by and large, centered on the “singular greatness of American ideals, and their proven capacity to inspire a better world.” Besides, we were told, with a new dawn of “American leadership” on the horizon, America is back and ready to lead, again.
In his historic inauguration speech, President Barack Obama proclaimed: “to those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history, but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.“
On that momentous occasion, watched by millions around the world, “from the grandest capitals” to the smallest villages, little did we know that those were just words – used only for convenience and discarded at will. The more things changed the more they stayed the same. And even trivial and ill-conceived US strategic interests trump over people’s aspirations for freedom, liberty and democracy around the world.
Mrs. Rice’s encomium for the Ethiopian dictator was not only a reflection of a moral decadence of American diplomats, especially those covering Africa, but also a grand betrayal of the courageous ideals put forth by America’s founding fathers .
From her perch at the UN office, Susan Rice, does not see or feel the suffering, killing and humiliation that Zenawi had inflicted upon millions of his countrymen. Even if she did, since Meles implemented their wishes around Africa, everything else got secondary consideration.
The Oxford dictionary defines dictator as “a ruler with total power over a country, typically one who has obtained control by force.” Meles Zenawi, Ambassador Rice’s “consistently reasoned” friend, meets this definition on all accounts.
For 17 long-years, he wielded an immense power as the PM of Ethiopia and Chairman of the ruling coalition, the EPRDF. Prior to that he served five years as President of Ethiopia. He has been the head of Tigrean Peoples Liberation Front, the powerful coalition partners, since 1989. He was the Commander-in-Chief of the Ethiopian army. Oh! He also took over the reigns of power after violent overthrow of Mengistu Hailemariam, the communist boogieman.
Over the years, Zenawi, whom Mrs. Rice called, an “uncommonly wise [leader who was] – able to see the big picture and the long game” single-handedly closed the political space, dismantled the free media, enfeebled the opposition, and ruled the country by pitting rival groups against one another.
Meles was not my friend and I cannot attest to his personal qualities. But, unlike Susan Rice, I have intimate knowledge, personal experience, and direct accounts from people whom he brutalized and lorded over. Rather than his personal qualities in the abstract, I judge Zenawi based on what his policy did to my people. It is on that basis I pass judgment on Mrs. Rice’s eulogy.
So, who was Meles Zenawi to an average Ethiopian?
Zenawi had his hands soaked with bloods of thousands of innocent Ethiopians. Shortly after he joined the TPLF as a young fighter, Zenawi rose to the top of the organization through Machiavellian intrigue and his depraved actions. He allegedly ordered the execution of his own compatriots who disagreed with him. Even after coming to power in 1991, Zenawi maintained his ironclad rule by constantly purging those seen as a threat, real or imagined, to his power, including his own former comrades in arms.
True to a form of a real dictator, Zenawi never tolerated differing ideas and competitions. A typical megalomaniac, the “great leader” loved surrounding himself with equally sycophant yes-men. Unlike many other dictators, he was an ever-morphing actor. While he tormented the people of Ethiopia, Zenawi only showed his softer, caring, and smiling face to his foreign friends who adored his intellect, wicked sense of humor, and his intolerance for “for fools, or ‘idiots,’ as he liked to call them.” It is true that Zenawi had no patience for journalists, opposition leaders and anyone who dared to criticize him. That is why he institutionalized criminalization of dissent by devising draconian “laws” like “the deeply flawed anti-terrorism legislation” or the anti-NGO law.
The Ethiopian people who suffered the brunt of Zenawi’s brutality did not see his humane side, because he did not show it to them. To call Zenawi, a brute, wise, as Mrs. Rice did, is to demean the word or insult our intelligence. I agree with Mrs. Rice that Meles was a very smart man; however, this does not absolve his crimes. In fact, this is what made him all the more dangerous. Zenawi’s security forces committed crimes in the shadow of darkness. He filled prisons with opponents and ordered their torture in dark cells. Many of his opponents simply vanished – never to be heard from again in two decades.
Meles was not “selfless,” he had a depraved heart. During his guerrilla years, he devised tactics and strategies that showed his callous disregard for human life. After taking over the helm, he built a secretive regime whose existence depended on systematic repression and zeal to win at any cost.
Zenawi’s unhealthy obsession for winning became evident during the Ethio-Eritrean war of 2000. This senseless war over a barren wasteland of few kilometers took more than 100 thousand lives. He sent thousands of non-Tigrean foot soldiers as minesweepers before the well-trained elite Tigrean soldiers were deployed. The carnage Zenawi inflicted upon millions, in deadly competition with his ex-best-friend turned enemy number one, Isaias Afewarki – over a minor conflict that could have been settled through diplomatic channels – is a testament to his depraved soul. It is beyond any reasonable imagination why Zenawi spent over one billion dollars on armaments, $480 million in 1999 alone, while large parts of the country was suffering from famine.
Contrary to claims that Zenawi “lifted millions out of poverty, hunger, and strife,”he had no compassion for the suffering of others. Everything was a fair game so long as he gained from it. When he invaded Somalia in 2006, a large portion of Ogaden, the Somali-region of Ethiopia where Zenawi faced fierce resistance in recent years, was under the threat of famine. Zenawi didn’t care as long as the US foreign aid checks kept flowing.
In her hagiography, Susan Rice said, the young Meles was “spurred” to action by a “torment of terrible time” to drive out another “strongman who had turned Ethiopia into a parched field of sorrow.” But she forgot to add or deliberately ignored, Zenawi actually used the famine stricken people of Tigray for his political gains, by forcing them to flee to Sudan in thousands so that his organization could prove Dergue’s atrocities to the international community. Having successfully convinced donors that “a famine of biblical proportions” was taking place, TPLF cashed Bob Geldof’s Band Aid and Live Aid money to buy weapons.
At the time when the 1984 famine became a public embarrassment for the communist regime, Zenawi’s rebel group, the TPLF, controlled most of Tigray – an area severely affected by famine. As BBC’s Martin Plaut reported in 2010, channeling the relief aid through the TPLF “was the only way of reaching those in desperate need” in areas the rebels – fighting to take down the Dergue – controlled. As a TPLF army commander at the time, Aregawi Berhe, told Plaut: TPLF “made a policy decision that only five percent of the money received…would be spent on relief, with the bulk going directly or indirectly to support their military and political campaigns.” The remaining 95 percent “was allocated to buying weapons and building up a hard-line Marxist political party within the rebel movement.”
Mrs. Rice also forgot to mention what a senior US diplomat, Robert Houdek, who was in Ethiopia around late 1980s told Plaut, the TPLF members admitted “at the time that some aid money and supplies was used to buy weapons” – a fact also corroborated by CIA documents.
Instead of remaking “himself overnight from guerrilla to a statesman” as Susan Rice would have us believe, in the words of former Ethiopian president Negaso Gidada, whom he appointed, Zenawi became “a replica of the very strongman he replaced”– Mengistu Hailemariam. The genocide in Gambela, the carpet-bombing of villages and nomadic settlements in Ogaden, the more than 4,407 extra judicial killings of Oromo nationalists and over 900 disappearances, the 2002 Awassa killings, the 2005 killing of more than 200 people on the streets of Addis Ababa, were sufficient to land him in the International Criminal Court. However, thanks to his powerful friends and apologists like Susan Rice, Meles walked free in life and is lionized in death.
Fortunately, theirs won’t be the last word. A time will come when the peoples of Ethiopia write Zenawi’s true legacy. His historical verdict will not be based on the subjective personal accounts of a friend, but rather on the objective evidence of his victims: the voices of thousands of prisoners who languished and are still languishing in Zenawi’s dungeons and endure torture, stories of refugees who run away fearing Zenawi’s intimidation and etc.
The hopes of millions who yearned to live in freedom but instead suffered indignities by Zenawi’s policy will be told. The names of those who were killed by Zenawi’s forces would be inscribed on a stone as our heroes. We will put Zenawi’s name besides Mengistu Hailemariam, in the hall of shame, so that the future generation remembers them for the atrocities they committed against our people. Zenawi was not the father of our rebirth, but we hope he will be the end of our misery.
Susan Rice did not appear in the apotheosis drama just as a friend of Meles, but she led an official delegation to the funeral as a representative of the US government. She forgot that her words have serious implications beyond her personal feelings for Meles. Mrs. Rice’s insensitive eulogy will be remembered as the Obama administration’s endorsement of personality cult over institutional building, dictatorship over freedom, and minority over a majority rule.
Since her days as assistant Secretary of State for Africa, Mrs. Rice played a very important role in promoting the TPLF government. She remained a true friend to Zenawi until the end. She was instrumental in the Clinton administration’s naming of Zenawi as one of the new generation of African leaders. With a request from Zenawi, Rice did her best to categorize the Oromo Liberation Front as a terrorist organization, but failed. She exhibited a behavior so unbecoming of a diplomat in her zeal to defend Zenawi’s government.
It’s time for all Ethiopian-Americans to reconsider their overwhelming support to Obama during his first election. We should not be taken for granted.
The Ethiopian government spends millions of dollars to lobby the US government through firms like DLA Piper and others. It’s not clear whether Mrs. Rice’s affection for Meles was partly sustained by DLA Piper’s lobbing efforts. At the very least, Mrs. Rice’s judgment was clouded by the close personal relationship she had with Meles.
However, as a seasoned diplomat, she should not have allowed her personal feelings to run amok and take the best part of her. She should have shown a minimum of sensitivity to thousands, who were killed, imprisoned, tortured and became refugees as a result of Zenawi’s policies. Those “fools and idiots” were freedom fighters to millions or press freedom advocates who wanted to see better Ethiopia. We may be fools, we may be idiots, but one thing is for sure: we have an enduring cause, truth, and justice on our side. I am confident that in the final analysis, freedom and liberty will triumph over tyranny.
With the following wise words of Martin Luther King, until next time:
I know you are asking today, “How long will it take?….
I come to say to you this afternoon, however difficult the moment, however frustrating the hour, it will not be long, because truth crushed to earth will rise again.
How long? Not long, because no lie can live forever.
How long? Not long, because you shall reap what you sow….
How long? Not long, because the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.
(The writer can be reached at [email protected]. The article was originally posted on opride.com)
We are learning that the division within the ruling junta EPRDF is deepening by the day and by the hour as they squabble over who will replace Meles Zenawi continues. Making things even more complicated is that widow of the late dictator, Azeb Mesfin, is refusing to vacate the prime minister’s residence until a new prime minister is selected. The EPRDF 180-member council is called to replace Meles next week, but some thing may explode before the meeting, according to observers in Addis Ababa.
Author Tesfaye Gebreab has this (tongue-in-cheek) advise to his former comrades:
In the wake of the death of Ethiopia’s long-serving PM, Meles Zenawi, two weeks ago, Graham Peebles argues this could be the best opportunity in a generation for Ethiopians to secure a more equal, more independent future.
The death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, announced on 22nd August after his mysterious two-month disappearance, presents a tremendous opportunity to Ethiopia. Let a new day dawn for the people, one filled with hope and fundamental change, where human rights and justice are respected, where freedom is encouraged and cultivated in all areas and where fear is banished to the past.
Meles rose to power as a revolutionary to overthrow a dictatorship. Ironically he too fell under the spell of power, and the freedom fighter became the dictator, the greatest obstacle to freedom and liberty. He had been in power since 1991, when the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) led a coalition of armed opposition groups in overturning the rule of Mengistu Haile Mariam.
Control and repression
No matter the repeated accolades and platitudes expressed by heads of State upon his passing, let us be clear: PM Meles Zenawi presided over an undemocratic regime that repressed the people, tolerating no political dissent, and as Human Rights Watch state in One Hundred Ways of Putting on Pressure, “since the controversial 2005 elections – Ethiopia has seen a sharp deterioration in civil and political rights, with mounting restrictions on freedom of expression, association, and assembly.”
In fact under Zenawi’s leadership the EPRDF government have trampled on the human rights of the Ethiopian people, centralised power, falsely imprisoned in large numbers of members of opposition parties and journalists and responded with brutal force to demonstrations after the 2005 sham poll – when security forces murdered over 200 innocent people on the streets of Addis Ababa. Not to mention the killings of hundreds of people in Gambella, the persecution of the people of Oromia, along with human rights violations in Afar and the Ogaden.
The media is party/state controlled, so too is the sole telecommunications company, as well as the judiciary, all of which is contrary to federal law as enshrined in the constitution. PM Meles, whose record, as the BBC rather generously phrased it, “has, at best, been patchy and rather uninspiring” has “orchestrated a discreet purge of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) and the administration, demoting, sidelining or reassigning key potential rivals and opponents.” As the Inter Press Service (IPS) succinctly put it, he “ruled with an increasingly authoritarian fist for more than two decades”. Let us hope such times will now be consigned to the murky past.
Unity – The way forward
If responded to with intelligence and love, patience and tolerance, the political space created by Meles’s departure could be a beginning in which firm and lasting steps towards an open, just, free civil society may be taken, broad ethnic participation encouraged and divisions set aside. A peaceful social revolution, long overdue, in which the perennial values of democracy are fostered, enabling the people to step out from the repressive shadow of the late prime minister and his EPRDF dictatorship and unite as one people, diverse yet unified, synthesising the many and enriching the country. Such is the opportunity at hand. As such, the keynote for the time ahead in Ethiopia should be unity, unity in diversity.
There are a great many ethnic and tribal groups in Ethiopia, some 77 according to the US State department, “with their own distinct language. Some of these have as few as 10,000 members.” The people of Oromo make up the single largest group and along with Amhara and Tigreans account for around 70% of the 85 million population. A further division exists along religious lines, with roughly 50% Orthodox Christian – living mainly in the highlands and 50% Muslim, inhabiting the lowland regions. Historically these two groups and the government have co-existed peacefully.
However, as the International Crisis Group’s (ICG) report ‘Ethiopia after Meles’ states:
“tensions are mounting between the government and the large Muslim community. Muslim committees have protested perceived interference in religious affairs. The authorities sought to link their demonstrations to Islamic extremism and terrorism, and Meles exacerbated matters by accusing the protestors of “peddling ideologies of intolerance”
This from a man who effectively outlawed all political dissent and banned freedom of expression. Christian Orthodox priests have also protested political interference and expressed their support for their Muslim brothers.
Such religious discord needs a sensitive response, not cliché name-calling. Predictably the T word has been wheeled out by a government that has sought to impose ideological control in every area of Ethiopian society, including the church. Let such repressive practices be buried along with Prime Minister Meles and let the current EPRDF government learn what is perhaps the greatest lesson of responsible government: to listen to the people yhey are in office to serve.
Designed to divide
Amharic is the official language and until recently was used in primary school instruction. It has been replaced in many areas by local languages such as Oromifa and Tigrinya, reinforcing ethnic divisions that contrary to the policy of ‘Ethnic Federalism’ designed by the TPLF, have been strengthened under the Meles premiership.
The highly centralised EPRDF has employed divide and rule tactics to weaken political opposition, fuel separation along ethnic lines, disempowering the community, engendering competition for land and natural resources as well as for government funds. Fragmented ethnic groups competing for resources and bickering amongst themselves have little time or energy to protest government policy and make easy prey for a regime seeking total control.
Division spawns conflict and, as the ICG found, “Exclusion and disfranchisement have provided fertile ground for ethnic and religious radicalisation, already evident in some lowland regions, where the ruling party exploits resources without local consent.” Massive land sales is one issue alluded to here; displacing thousands of indigenous people, forcing subsistence farmers and pastoralists off the land, destroying large areas of forest and wildlife habitat, that for a few dollars are turned over to international corporations who cultivate crops for their home market. All of which, let us add, without any form of consultation with local groups.
Democracy is participation, the opportunity before Ethiopia is to create an environment in which participation is encouraged and the people have a voice, where unity is seen as the means and the goal; where the Oromo people, those in the Ogaden, Amhara and Tigrae and the other ethnic groups are fully included and the development of community groups is facilitated.
The opposition and diaspora
Under the Meles regime not only have the main Ethnic groups been divided and disempowered, but so too has the diaspora opposition, too weak and ineffective. Fractured and despondent activists and opposition members of the various bodies need to unite at this time of uncertainty and opportunity and work collectively to establish a dialogue with the EPRDF government.
A national dialogue is needed in which opposition groups inside and outside the country and the people, for too long silenced, are allowed to participate and indeed be listened too. Such a move would set a new and inclusive tone and would engender hope that the ruling EPRDF recognises the mood of the country.
The diaspora’s role is crucial in any movement towards democracy in Ethiopia. Consensus amongst the various factions is essential and ideas of opposition, the pre-occupation of the past, that serve only to strengthen division and thus play into the hands of the EPRDF, forgotten. Constructive creative contributions should be encouraged, holding in mind the underlying principle of unity to soften government resistance to change and cultivate trust. As the ICG expresses it:
“Opposition forces may now be able to agree on a basic platform calling for an all-inclusive transitional process leading to free and fair elections in a couple of years. Such an arrangement should include all political forces armed and unarmed, that endorse a non-violent process to achieve an inclusive, democratically-elected regime.”
The Federal Constitution, written by the TPLF, full as it is of articles of decency and acceptability, disregarded by the government, is vague and ambiguous regarding the process of transition and succession in the event of the Prime Ministers death. On Aug 23, Al Jazeera reported that “The Ethiopian parliament has been recalled from recess to swear-in Zenawi’s successor, Hailemariam Desalegn, the deputy prime minister, who will most likely lead Ethiopia until 2015, when the current term of the ruling party comes to an end.” This is by no means certain, as Desagelen is reportedly unsure about accepting the mantle of PM.
A provisional cross party government is called for. One with broad support that would initiate reforms, repeal the unjust Anti Terrorist Proclamation and other repressive legislation, free the media, most importantly television and radio and begin to build a vibrant active civil society. Such progressive steps would establish the foundations of a strong democratic platform that could be developed up to and after the 2015 elections.
Responsible support and development
The development much championed in Ethiopia – where the partisan distribution of aid, including emergency food relief, is an open secret – does not correspond to a definition that those who believe in equality, justice, human rights, and freedom of expression would recognise. As Al Jazeera reported two weeks ago, “Zenawi has been praised for bringing development and economic growth to one of Africa’s poorest nations but his critics say that came at the cost of respect for democracy and human rights.”
To put Ethiopia’s much trumpeted economic growth in perspective, let us note that the average annual income in Ethiopia equates to just $3 a day. Food staples have quadrupled in price in the last four years, largely as a consequence of the extensive land sales, and according to Bloomberg Business, Ethiopia’s “annual inflation rate climbed to 34.7 percent in May as food prices surged, Inflation accelerated from 25.6 percent in the previous month, food prices jumped 41 percent in the year.“
In addition the gap is increasing between the majority who are poor and the small number of wealthy Ethiopians, who are primarily members of the ruling party, as IPS reported on 22 Aug, “development has yet to reach the vast majority of the country’s population. Instead, much of this wealth – and political power – has been retained by the ruling party and, particularly, by the tiny Tigrayan minority community to which Meles belonged.” These party members have followed the trend of other dictatorships and invested their accrued wealth overseas.
Development and democracy are closely related, not some western idea of democracy, but a living social movement of participation and inclusion, evolving out of the actions and creativity of the people themselves. An idea PM Meles did not recognise. The ICG report quotes Meles stating he did not “believe in bedtime stories and contrived arguments linking economic growth with democracy.”
In truth he did not believe in democracy at all. The price of his short sightedness and ideologically-driven policies has been paid by the people, whose human rights were ignored, and freedoms stolen.
Suppressed and silenced for too long, now is the time to listen to their cries for justice and freedom. All efforts should be made to encourage and mobilise the people of Ethiopia. It is not simply calm that is needed, as many have reiterated, but action. It is time for the people, so long inhibited to act, to demand their rights and express their vision for the future of their country.
Ethiopia is the recipient of over $3 billion of development aid a year, second only to Indonesia. The US, Britain and the EU, along with the World Bank are the main donors. In exchange for what amounts to over a third of Ethiopia’s annual budget, the west has a strategically placed ally in the Horn of Africa who will act when asked to and function as a military outpost for America who launch drone attacks from its soil.
Those supporting development within Ethiopia share the opportunity and responsibility for change within the country. Mediation between the various ethnic groups and political parties, encouraging openness and facilitating discussion is an obvious role that could and indeed should be undertaken.
Required action
In order to realise the opportunity before Ethiopia, certain basic steps showing a renewed adherence to international and federal law need to be taken immediately by the EPRDF:
All political prisoners must be released.
The internationally-condemned Anti Terrorist Proclamation repealed
Freedom of the media, assembly and dissent allowed
These are fundamental requirements in moving Ethiopia forward and establishing an atmosphere of hope that will encourage political and civil participation and safeguard against the potential radicalisation of opposition groups.
International donors need to recognise their collusion in a range of human rights abuses that have taken place under PM Meles and ensure these demands are acted on, linking development assistance to swift implementation. Human Rights Watch (HRW) has asked of “Ethiopia’s international partners [to] call on the government to support fundamental rights and freedoms in the country and a prompt rollback of repressive laws. Ethiopia’s government should commit to respect for human rights and core rights reforms in the coming days and weeks”.
Denied good governance for many years the people of Ethiopia have suffered much, too much and for too long. Let the current space afforded by the passing of PM Meles be filled with their united voices, articulating their grievances, expressing their hopes and concerns, and with the responsible support of international friends and partners demand fundamental change, freedom and social justice, long overdue.
Graham Peebles is Director of The Create Trust, a UK registered charity, supporting fundamental social change and the human rights of individuals in acute need. He may be reached at [email protected].
Beyond the pathetic and at times ridiculous theatrics of Ethiopians ordered not only to mourn but also to show visible signs of a boundless grief over the death of Meles Zenawi, henceforth advertised as a great and beloved Ethiopian leader, I hear a murmur that increasingly sounds like a condescending laughter. Who is laughing? Perhaps history is laughing at the extraordinary reversal of Meles and the TPLF. When the guerrilla troops of the TPLF marched on Addis Ababa in 1991 and their leaders seized power, they promised freedom and democracy for all the peoples of Ethiopia. After 20 years of total rule, what we observe is people mourning a leader in the North Korean style, that is, the reality of a government that feels entitled to order its people even how to feel.
This is a new landmark: already whatever Ethiopians used to have belongs to the government, including their house, their land, and the schools to which they send their children, just as they are told to which ethnic bantustan they belong and which party they should follow under pain of being demoted to second or even third rate citizens. I would hardly be surprised if the government soon orders Ethiopians who to marry and which religion to adopt. The totalitarian strangle is tightening every day to the point of utter suffocation of what makes their humanity, namely, their ability to govern themselves.
The recent drama of a prolonged and effusive official mourning is deliberately staged to achieve two interrelated results. On the one hand, by demanding that Ethiopians show an outpouring grief over the death of Meles, his successors and followers want to further humiliate them so as to erase any temptation of protest, obvious as it is that a humiliated, broken people is unable to stand up for itself. On the other hand, the submission of the people to the point of manifesting grief over the demise of their oppressor provides his successors with a semblance of legitimacy. The more Meles is glorified and his successors swear to continue his “great” work, the more they acquire the mantle of legitimacy by presenting themselves as his trusted heirs. This borrowed legitimacy is necessary to find some form of acceptance among party members, the military establishment, and the troops.
It should be noted that the strategy could backfire. Indeed, the more Meles is exalted, the less his successors appear as able people. The excessive exaltation of Meles leaves the impression that he did everything by himself, that he was the only decider, planner, and executor. His stature is now so high that his successors look like dwarfs licking his boots. This confirms what Sebhat Nega supposedly said, to wit, that “in his death, Meles took with him the TPLF as well.” Meles’s glory is obtained at the expense of the TPLF and, as repeatedly confirmed by history, the rise of a dictator always undermines his followers. Even though dictatorship was thought necessary to impose the interests of the party, the first loser is always the party in that it creates a force that it can no longer control.
The most stunning reversal is however the fuss aimed at presenting Meles as a great Ethiopian nationalist leader. Meles, who all along ridiculed Ethiopian nationalism, landlocked Ethiopia, fragmented the country into ethnic states, officially and repeatedly stigmatized Ethiopian legacy, even went to the extent of defending the secession of Tigray, is now exalted as a staunch Ethiopian nationalist. What is more, he who defined himself so pompously as a Tigrean nationalist, wanted his funeral ceremony and his burial to take place in Addis Ababa, as though he had nothing to do with Tigray. That the once vehement Tigrean nationalist suddenly found Tigray too small for him represents the apex of paradox. There is after all a winner in the 20 years of wasted rule and it is Ethiopia. The fact that Meles’s body did not even touch the soil of Tigray is his mea culpa and final tribute to Ethiopian nationhood.
Lastly, I have a free advice for Meles’s successors. Instead of trying to find the legitimacy that they lack by hiding behind the ghost of Meles, they should seriously consider the only path that provides them with their own legitimacy. The resolution to continue Meles’s policy is a deadlock and ultimately dangerous for their own survival and interests. To continue the same policy without Meles would require them to be more repressive and totalitarian than Meles ever was, the outcome of which can only be the exasperation of popular unrests. Even if we assume that the EPRDF has the ability to become more repressive, the implementation of the policy will necessitate another “strong man.” And this means back to square one, that is, back to one-man dictatorship with all its risks and restrictions on the ruling party itself. Notably, the rise of such a dictator, assuming it is possible, would come at the cost of the unity of the EPRDF and even of the TPLF.
The only viable path is to correct Meles’s mistake by opening up the political space to opposition forces and by lifting all the restrictions on freedom of speech and organization as well as by liberating all political prisoners. To do so would confer a new legitimacy on Meles’s successors while at the same time removing the possibility of another round of dictatorial rule and reaffirming the unity of the EPRDF and of the various parties that compose it. In other words, both the EPRDF and the TPLF need the participation of opposition forces to regain an internally working democratic condition and preserve their unity.
As things stand now, I see no better way to move in a different direction than to confirm Haile Mariam Desalegn as the new prime minister. More than his status as deputy prime minister, what militates in favor of his confirmation is that he represents the southern peoples and, as such, can intercede between the big competing forces within the EPRDF. This gives him the strategic position to preserve the unity of the party and opens up a space for the participation of the opposition. Let there be no misunderstanding: I am not saying that Haile Mariam is the right person. Some such conclusion would be utterly premature and unfounded on any reliable proof. Rather, I am suggesting that he should be given the benefit of the doubt, given his strategic position. At any rate, we will soon know whether he can take advantage of his position and initiate a new direction.
In the absence of a legitimate autopsy report, a death certificate or a credible official statement relating to the reason behind the hospitalization and eventual death of the former ruler of one of the most populous countries in Africa, there are compelling medical and circumstantial arguments to suggest that the episode of May 18, 2012, in which the valiant Abebe Gellaw confronted Zenawi, might have played a major role in accelerating the demise of the dictator.
Prior to August 21, 2012, when the TPLF cadres that are currently terrorizing the country announced his death, Zenawi had not been seen in public for several weeks, and there had only been conflicting reports about his conditions or whereabouts issued by the Woyanne propaganda machinery.
Nonetheless, there were several pieces of circumstantial evidence that indicated the deteriorating condition of Zenawi’s health in the aftermath of the May18th encounter with Abebe Gellaw. Most notably, immediately after the confrontation, Zenawi reportedly failed to attend a function at the Ethiopian Embassy in Washington, D.C., that was organized to express gratitude to his followers in the Diaspora. A few weeks later, he was seen as a ghost-like creature during his meeting with Chinese officials at the G20 summit in Los Cabos, Mexico. The final confirmation of his ailment later came when he failed to attend an African Union summit in Addis Ababa in July.
While there is no conclusive medical evidence to indicate that shock can actually kill a person, there is ample literature to surmise that it can impact the cardiovascular system, and thereby exacerbate a deteriorating or compromised condition leading to death.
In the medical literature, fear and stress are known to cause substantial biochemical conflicts between the sympathetic and parasympathetic responses when a person is faced with an imminent danger, the so-called fight-or-flight phenomenon. In particular, shock, as an extreme stress reaction, ensues when the stress level is so high that the endocrine and nervous systems are unable to cope with the circumstance. People who have underlying health problems may, therefore, experience fatalities as a result of the exacerbation of these conditions.
In their book, Gleitman et al. (2004)[1] report that, in the face of extreme stress, catecholamine hormones, such as adrenaline, trigger physical reactions, including acceleration of heart and lung action, constriction of blood vessels, and shaking. For someone with cardiovascular problems, a huge release of catecholamines can lead to instant or eventual death.
Some of the above events were, of course, observed in Zenawi’s reaction to the unexpected challenge by Gellaw. In one of his weekly commentaries, Alemayehu G. Mariam poetically captured the moment as follows:
“…. For seven seconds, the mighty Zenawi zoned out into a catatonic trance like the patrons of opium dens. For a fleeting moment, he seemed almost comatose. His head was bowed, his back hunched, his chin drooped, his lips quivered and his eyes gazed vacantly at the floor just like the criminal defendant who got handed a life sentence or worse. A close-up video showed him breathing heavily, almost semi-hyperventilating. His pectoral muscles heaved spastically under his shirt. An imminent cardiac event?” [2]
For a dictator who, distrusting the people he ruled with an iron fist, had insulated himself with one of the most skilled and highly armed protective security details in the world; for a dictator who, out fear and insecurity, had never interacted or mingled with the people that he had so despised, mocked and disparaged during his two decades of tyranny; the sudden outburst of such dreaded phrases as “Meles Zenawi is a dictator!” in that world forum was a shocking experience that his frail body had not been accustomed to or able to withstand.
Although the secretive TPLF ruling party never revealed the general health condition of the dictator while he was in office, rumors did abound about his poor health resulting from a slapdash life-style, including smoking, drinking and other substance abuse – all risk factors for cardiovascular and oncological complications.
In view of the indirect association of death and shock in a compromised person, and given the poor state of Zenawi’s health prior to the event, it is not beyond the realm of possibilities to surmise that the May 18th confrontation might have contributed to his death.
If Gellaw’s heroic action had a role in the death of the dictator, then it would explain in part why the TPLF cadres kept the condition of the late dictator and the bona fide cause of his death a highly guarded secret. Manifestly, any suggestion that the event of May 18th contributed to the demise of the dictator would hearten others to follow suit and challenge the repressive rule of the TPLF. Most importantly, if there was the perspicacity that one person could contribute in a momentous way to bring down a vicious dictator, despite his ostensibly impenetrable security details, the millions of oppressed citizens would be emboldened and an organized mass uprising would be inevitable to end the monopoly enjoyed by the minority thugs on the nation’s political and military power structure and scarce resources.
The North Korean style funeral ceremony and the idolization of the deceased is also part of an overall orchestrated stratagem to demonstrate spurious invincibility and to thwart any semblance of vulnerability. The attempt to paint a larger-than-life picture of the deceased despot, and the much advertized claim that he was a respected leader in the world forum is, of course, at variance with the low esteem in which the despot was held by world leaders in private conversations. As revealed in the United States diplomatic cables leak, he was in fact a light weight in the eyes of diplomats and heads of states. Contrary to the myth propagated by his henchmen, in the opinion of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, for example, he was an “economic illiterate”, while in the assessment of George W. Bush he was nothing more than “an errand boy”. What the TPLF cadres are doing in his death validates what Former US ambassador Donald Yamamoto observed when the dictator was alive: a “democratic deficit” example, and someone “begging to get world attention to have his ideologies acceptable.” [3]
The death of the dictator a short while after his encounter with Abebe Gellaw may serve both as a metaphor and as a template for the demise of tyranny in Ethiopia. Authoritarianism inherently is an aberration in human society, and hence a sick political system. So, as in the case of Zenawi, a major shock could unavoidably trigger the collapse of the system, as has been recently observed in the Middle East and other regions ruled by tyrants. This shock could come in the form of popular uprisings, concerted resistance by the people, organized lobbying by the Diaspora to cut the supply line of foreign aid, or internal fractures spearheaded by pro-democratic factions.
The only way out of this predicament for TPLF rulers is to recognize and respect the will of the people to live in freedom and liberty. In the short term, they should open up the political space and invite all opposition leaders for a genuine dialog to chart a framework for a democratic Ethiopia in which individual rights will be unconditionally respected, and all citizens will have equal opportunities in the pursuit of happiness and determination of the government of their choice.
If the TPLF insists in propagating the failed autocratic, ethnic-based and corrupt policies of the late dictator, then all freedom loving Ethiopians back home and in the Diaspora should rise in unity and give the aberrant system a shock from which it will never recover. It is a mathematical impossibility for a minority group to dream it would be able to perpetuate its repression over eighty million people for much longer.
It is time for the West to refrain from continuing to nurture the activities of a criminal regime and derailing the aspirations of the people to live in freedom and prosperity. In this regard, pro-democracy groups and individuals in the Diaspora have a historic role to play and influence donor nations and institutions.
* Henry Gleitman, Alan J. Fridlund and Daniel Reisberg (2004). Psychology (6 ed.). W. W. Norton & Company. ISBN 0-393-97767-6.)
* http://addisvoice.com/2012/05/ethiopia-meles-speechless/
* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contents_of_the_United_States_diplomatic_cables_leak_(Region_%E2%80%94_Africa)#Ethiopia
