Skip to content

News

It’s not the rains, it’s the rulers

From Live Aid in the mid-1980s to today, Western attempts to help famine-plagued Ethiopia have had little effect. Author Peter Gill explains why in his recently published book, “Famine and Foreigners.” William Easterly reviews the book for the Wall Street Journal:

If it were possible to sum up in one sentence Ethiopia’s struggles with famine over the past quarter-century, I’d suggest this: It’s not the rains, it’s the rulers. As Peter Gill makes clear in “Famines and Foreigners,” his well-turned account of the country’s miseries since the 1984-85 famine and the Live Aid concert meant to relieve it, drought has not been as devastating to Ethiopians as their own autocratic governments.

Ethiopia is a classic example of Amartya Sen’s dictum that famines don’t occur in democracies, only under tyrannies. The “foreigners” in Mr. Gill’s story either didn’t know about this sad fact of life or chose to ignore it. In any case, the celebrities and humanitarians who rushed to the aid of starving Ethiopians in the mid-1980s unwittingly supported the very people most responsible for those grim days… continue reading

More questions for Col. Mengistu, and leadership criteria

By Fikre Tolossa

Greetings to you, Dear Colonel Mengistu Hailemariam, Ex-President of Ethiopia.

After I put my pen to rest having reviewed and analyzed your reminiscence, I thought I was through with you. However, readers flooded me over with letters encouraging me to ask you more questions. I accepted their request reluctantly as I wanted to move on with my own life instead of dealing with you. Since you are history now, I didn’t see why I should spend more time on you. On the other hand, it crossed my mind that we can learn a lot from your history so that we can gauge our present leaders and the ones that will appear in the future, by setting a criteria for leadership, using you as a measurement. People asked tons of questions and held discussions provoked by my review and analysis. Obviously the embers of their wounds inflicted upon them were buried deep down the ashes of their memories, but not extinguished. They feel like having a therapy to heal their physical, mental and spiritual afflictions for good, at least by discussing their past trauma which lurks in the recesses of their being. As I said above, I am only responding to the request s of the reading public by posing to you more questions.

Personally, you didn’t inflict any wounds on me. Nor did you leave any scar on my heart. You didn’t rule me, luckily. I escaped in 1973 (European Calendar) shortly before the reign of terror broke loose in Ethiopia, and headed for Russia to pursue my studies. It was the Emperor’s Government that sent me there to study creative writing, as Russia had produced great writers like Pushkin, Tolstoy and Dostoevsky. You see, it was not only your government that had a good relationship with the Soviet Union. The Emperor‘s too, had one. However, the wise leader chose the policy of neutrality. He was the first among African leaders who went to China in search of the best for his country. I am not out here to praise and defend his policy and regime. As a matter of fact, I am one of those who fought his regime in my student days thinking that the people of Ethiopia would live better if monarchy was replaced by a republic. Like I said, I hold no grudges against you though you attempted to take me and 12 of my fellow students from Russia back to Ethiopia to either execute us or let us languish in jail when some of your supporters who claimed to be Meison (All Ethiopia Socialist Party) members handed you over our names charging us of being against your Government while you were visiting the Soviet Union in 1977 (European Calendar). You requested the Russians to hand us over without questioning the charges, according to the Russian officials. My friends and I hindered your attempt, holding unexpected and illegal demonstration in Moscow. I contacted some BBC and VOA journalists and briefed them what was going to happen to us. They spread the news all over the world instantly. The Russians got scared of the scandal and allowed some of my friends to go on exile to Sweden and Germany. I was permitted to finish my studies. After I graduated a year later, I headed for West Germany and applied for a political asylum. The people you wanted to get then are now professional engineers, doctors and professors. Had they fallen in your hands, their future would have been uncertain. You might probably have forgotten about this incident as you had to deal with more serious problems that those of young students.

As I cannot question you about all those wonderful Ethiopians who perished under your regime, I will cite only a few cases. First and foremost, I will ask you about those in the military and then about civilian intellectuals. You are welcome to challenge me and refute my assertions, if I distort facts and said things wrongly. My intention is for you to respond on the cases and situations. Others who know the situation better than I do, could help us by serving as witnesses breaking out of their shells. Even though I was away from home during your reign of terror, I have followed the events in Ethiopia attentively reading every day Amharic, Russian and German papers, as well as listening to radios. I have recorded on a tape the utterances of many that had fled from Ethiopia surviving the so-called “Red Terror”, when the events and trauma were yet fresh in their minds. So, I feel that I am well-versed with what went on in Ethiopia despite my absence. Everything is fresh in my mind too. In fact, people who had lived through the revolution would forget some of the details when I talked to them about some remarkable phenomena after years had gone by, because they experienced wave after wave of rapid events which overwhelmed them, contrary to myself who had been following things from a distance without any physical involvement. Moreover, it seems that the real victims have chosen to be in a state of amnesia to forget deliberately those painful and agonizing moments.

Remember, Colonel, the issue is not about you per se. It is rather about the top place you occupied in the Ethiopian society. If you were not the head-of-state of Ethiopia once upon a time determining the fates of millions, who would bother themselves to think about you, let alone pose questions to you about your governance? For this reason, you have to assume now that you are at the court of the people facing a few of the questions that bother them. I am the presiding judge of the court of the people in this case, if you will. We will have a verdict in the end which will find you either innocent or guilty. Is this is okay with you, Colonel?

You have said time and again that the reason why you could not forgive the generals you had punished so severely was that you wouldn’t compromise your principle when it came to Ethiopian sovereignty and suzerainty. Applying your principle, I can’t refrain myself from asking you tough questions when it comes to Ethiopia, a nation I love so dearly.

Towards the end of this paper, I will list a criteria by which we should investigate the backgrounds of our future leaders. I will go ahead now and shoot a host of questions. My first question is about General Amand Andom. After that, I will ask you about Gneral Teferi Benti. My last questions in this thread will be about author Bealu Girma, Dr. Danagchew Yirgu, your Minster of Agriculture for a brief moment, Lij Kassa Woldemariam, the former President of Haile Selassie I University and Professor Getachew Haile, a noted scholar. I will ask you first and foremost about the two generals, because, if they were given an opportunity to materialize their initiations or proposals, Ethiopian history would have taken a different turn for the better.

Permit me to start with General Aman Andom. In one word, you charged General Aman with treason with regards to Eritrea. Consequently, you ordered your soldiers to have him arrested. He refused to surrender and committed suicide after a gun battle. By your own confession, you were the one who brought him to the Derg to lead it as a chairman. This you did because he was a popular hero and a national figure you devised to use as a front-man, since you and the rest of the Derg members were nobodies then. After his death, you sought and found another naïve front-man by the name of General Teferi Benti. I will bring up General Teferi Benti later on.

In his capacity as the Chairman of the Derg, General Aman Adndom toured all over Eritrea and convinced the people that, if their real reason why they desired to beak up with Ethiopia was the dismantling of the federation, he would see to it that it would be restored through negotiation. Once it is restored, however, all secessionists should stop fighting and join the people to live in a united Ethiopia under a genuine federation. If the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front or any secessionist forces continued to wage war against Ethiopia after that, the general explained, they would be dealt with severely once and for all. This impressed the people of Eritrea much. They trusted the integrity ofthe General. You, however, didn’t want to sit down and negotiate with a bunch of “ager gentayoch” or “agamido”. You decided to crush Shabia by force of arms. To this end, you convinced the Derg to send more tanks and troops to Eritrea. General Aman protested because this would have damaged his initiation to isolate the secessionists . His protest was perceived as being “treason” because he was of Eritrean origin. He got frustrated and embittered because the Derg he led as a Chairman wouldn’t consent to his noble proposal or initiation. He had no choice but to retreat to his home. Being scared that the popular general would break the news to the rank and file solders and fight you, you decided to silence him. So, you signed an order to arrest him immediately and confine him together with the senior officials of Emperor Haile Selassie. I have seen a copy of your order with your signature on it. But the brave General was not one to be dragged out of his house and arrested. He fought the troops and tanks you sent to his home, killed as many as he could, and committed suicide rather than be captured, in the tradition of Atse Theodros. Shocked by this, and to diminish the public reaction to the sudden death of the national hero, you and your Derg members hastily and nervously executed the rest of the Emperor’s officials that had never been brought to court, and buried them in a mass grave in Kerchele. Isn’t this true Colonel? If it is not, let us hear your version and let others witness.

If General Aman’s Eritrean initiation was implemented, Shabia would have been in a big mess. Surely, it would have collapsed eventually and Eritrea would probably not have separated from Ethiopia. Even the Tigray People’s Liberation Front would have found it hard to seize power. Thus a big chance was lost to stop Eritrea from seceding from Ethiopia.

Colonel, why didn’t you give General Aman Andom a chance to exercise his original approach and wisdom? You chose force over diplomacy. You unleashed force in Ethiopia for 17 years to resolve the Eritrean problem. Think of all the people who died because of the Eritrean war. How many people do you think lost their lives, perished and dislocated from both sides? A million? 500,000? 300.000? How about our financial and material loss? Billions? There is no doubt. How about the pain and sorrow? Incalculable!

Probably all this could have been averted if you patiently gave Aman a chance. Furthermore, you might probably be still in power in Ethiopia because, the restoration of the Eritrean federation would have made it impossible for the TPLF and EPLF to unite and attack your government successfully. True, believing he was the head-of-state since he was called the Chairman of the Derg, General Aman had attempted to exercise power without consulting the Derg on every issue or without reporting to it. That is why he could not understand when the Derg confronted him for acting independently. He didn’t want to play the role of a puppet. Therefore, in a state of confusion, he chose to go to his home threatening to resign. What else could he have done?

You suspected General Aman to be a traitor mainly for his refusal to send arms and troops to Eritrea since this would have jeopardized his design to isolate the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front from the populace by convincing it that there was a new government led by none other than himself. How would you suspect General Aman to be a traitor, colonel? If you say he was scheming to let Eritrea go, why didn’t he do so by joining the Eritrean liberation fronts way back during the reign of the Emperor? Why was he fighting as a common solder sleeping in the desert of Ogaden with the enlisted soldiers to preserve and protect the territorial integrity of Ethiopia? When Somalia was provoking Ethiopia endlessly didn’t General Aman fight ferociously marching inside Somalia? Didn’t the Emperor who was afraid that he would be accused of invading Somalia called him back to retreat and scold him for his act? Didn’t he even confine him in Addis as a member of his Crown Council which was a sort of house arrest, fearful of his increasing popularity? If this truly Ethiopian General didn’t champion the secession of Eritrea from Ethiopia during the reign of the Emperor, why would he do so when he believed himself to be the head-of-state of Ethiopia? Excuse me, Colonel, the track record of General Aman Andom was clean from treason. I am sure he would be tossing around in his grave endlessly for being treated as a traitor after having served his country so dedicatedly.

If he was not a genuine Ethiopian hero, why was he so popular? Even I used to hear about his love for Ethiopia and his bravery when I was growing up in Dire-Dawa. In your latest reminiscence you negate his heroism. If he was indeed not a hero, why did you choose and persuade him to lead you at a time when generals were being picked up and arrested by you? Was it not because of his good reputation as a brave soldier and a true Ethiopian patriot that you begged him to lead you leaving his life of “retirement” or call it “house arrest”, as a member of the Crown Council? Did he care to seize power then? Wasn’t he leading a quiet life of oblivion? I have heard that he was nice to you when you were serving under him in your youth in Harer. Was it not because you appreciated his patriotism, caliber, patriotism and charisma that you persuaded him to be the Chairman of the Drg, even though he had never contemplated to be in that dangerous position. Of course, you know deep down inside that General Aman Andom was not a traitor. He had a grand vision for Ethiopia. His vision was trampled over and it resulted in the destruction of Ethiopia. This is my personal opinion. As I said, if I am wrong, I am willing to be corrected. Let us hear your story.

Next on Geneal Teferi Benti. You replaced General Aman with this gentleman to use him as a front- man again. In your recent memoir and elsewhere, you have said that General Teferi Benti was like a father to you, giving you good advices when you needed it badly. According to you, he was misled or misguided by others who were either EPRP members or sympathizers. I was in Ethiopia on vacation in September 1976 (European Calendar) at Abyot Adebabai when General Teferi Benti was addressing the Ethiopian nation with a message of reconciliation. He stressed the importance of all revolutionary groups including the EPRP to work together for the well-being of Ethiopia leaving their differences aside. He was backed within the Derg with Captain Moges W.Michael, Capitain Tefera Deneke and Lieutenant Alemayehu Haile. These people were instrumental in restructuring the Derg and curbing your increasing power and influence, as you recall. These junior officers were reportedly either EPRP members or sympathizers. You and your party, Seded , however, were collaborating mainly with the members of the Woz League led by Dr. Senai Likke, and to a significant extent, the Meisone Party that had established for you theKebeles and the office of mass organization, besides providing you with valuable ideological advices. Did they urge you to take immediate action against General Teferi Benti and the rest or was it purely your plot and that of your friend, Colonel Daniel Asfaw , the Derg’s Chief of Security, that prompted you to eliminate General Teferi Benti and the rest? Now my question to you, Colonel, is this- Instead of worrying about losing your own power and influence in the Derg besides siding only with one or two groups of revolutionaries such as Woz League and the Meisone, why didn’t you take to heart General Teferi’s call for national reconciliation as a principle whether he sympathized with EPRP or not, for the sake of Ethiopia? In other words, why didn’t you embrace all the progressive groups of the country and resolve the conflict amicably and peacefully? Why didn’t you go for it when the idea of a provisional peoples’ government was floating around long before the EPRP had become aggressive? If your were less ambitious of seizing power yourself, and if you had attempted to champion the formation of a provisional popular government, the course of Ethiopian history would have taken a different turn, and all the bloodshed and destruction that followed could have been prevented. Don’t you think so, Colonel?

Imagine a scenario whereby EPRP, Meisone, Woz League, Seded, the Derg and any other progressive forces joined hands united under one government bearing one banner called “Ethiopia’s Well-being”, or even for that matter, your own initial motto, “Ethiopia Tikdem’’ (Ethiopia First) for there was nothing wrong if Ethiopia came first of all. In such a scenario, the EPRP would not have a reason to oppose the Derg and to make an attempt on your life and others. You too, would not have a reason to unleash the “Red Terror”. And if you wouldn’t unleash the Red Terror, EPRP wouldn’t retaliate. If EPRP wouldn’t retaliate, the Kebele cadres, Mesone members and some Derg officials wouldn’t die. The EPRP wouldn’t be divided into factions and annihilate each other. Tens of thousands of Ethiopians would not languish in prison and flee Ethiopia for their lives. The army would be strong and Eritrea would find it hard to secede. The founders of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front would perhaps join the popular government rather than running to the bush. Human lives would be preserved. Democracy would flourish. Mind, energy and wealth would be invested on nation building. You see the picture I am trying to draw, Colonel? Instead, you chose the path you took and that made all the difference.

True, the Mesone and EPRP had their own differences. Non-the-less, since both professed socialism (and who didn’t profess socialism, ironically) as their ultimate goal or strategy, you, General Teferi and the rest of the Derg members could have persuaded them to resolve their differences and to rally around the strategy they shared in common, lest they were tossed out of the band wagon of the revolution. If they still refused to cooperate harmoniously for a common cause and end, history would have judged them and they would have gone down the drench of oblivion. Do I sound naive? Maybe. But some times, the naïve comes up with an idea that serves as a spark of hope.

If you permit me to continue to ask you, I have a question about author Be’alu Girma. This budding author believed in you or appeared to do so, for his own reasons. I understand that he had let you and Captain Fike-selassie Wogderess read his manuscript, Oromay, to get your approval before he published it. He praised you in this novel about the hopeless Eritrean war, calling you “Tikur Nebir” (black tiger) that had been emotional in the beginning, and got seasoned ultimately getting matured during the course of the Revolution. I read this book over 25 years ago. I am depending on my memory for this quote. A friend of mine who had befriended with Ato Be’alu told me then that the author had revealed to him that you and Captain Fikre-selassie had read the book and approved it prior to publication. The author trusted the two of you and depended especially on you for protection against the people he was criticizing harshly in the book. According to Ato Be’alu, when his would-be assassins bothered you too much for letting him circulate this book unhindered and unpunished, you called him and asked him afresh what the book was about, as if you didn’t know its content. Then you advised him not to go back to work. In other words, you fired him to appease his accusers who were bothering you too much. You knew they were capable of endangering him, particularly your Chief of Security, Col Tesfaye-woldeselassie. Be’alu Girma lost his life helplessly for writing a book. He would have composed many fine books had he lived a bit longer, and Ethiopia could have benefited from his skill. His wife would not have been widowed, and his children orphaned, if he was not murdered prematurely. Why didn’t you protect the very person who had believed in you and praised you in his book? If the pressure was indeed too much on you, why didn’t you get him an exit visa to find a safe haven outside Ethiopia? Or at least, why didn’t you provide some kind of assistance to his wife and children that were desperate to make ends meet when their bread-winner was gone? Furthermore, why didn’t you investigate his case and punish his killers, if you were uneasy and perturbed by his death? Or may we conclude that you were not that concerned about the death of a person who believed in your integrity and leadership quality, and got your approval for the publication of his book? If all this is not true, what is the truth then?

Countless are the intellectuals that perished as a result of the brutality of your regime. It is impossible to list their exact number. Let me ask you just about one who was not even politically involved. In fact, he was one of your cabinet ministers briefly on the merit of his profession as a superb agronomist. His name was Dr. Danagchew Yirgu . Does this name ring a bell in your ears? Indeed, Dr. Dangachew was a great scientist that researched on and revolutionized Ethiopian agriculture. When he graduated with honors from the University of Purdue in the US, the Americans offered him a teaching position. He turned it down telling them he wanted to go back home and teach and research. This he did at the then Alemaya, now Haromaya University. He inspired many students and enhanced agriculture. Applying genetic engineering he discovered means and ways of solving the problems of famine and drought. He was dragged into your Government to serve as minister of agriculture. He clashed head on with your agricultural policy (communal land allocation and farming that didn’t work in Russia) which he thought would cause further famine and drought. He suggested a better means of solving the recurring problem hunger. You and some of your cabinet members didn’t like his guts for daring to speak his mind when most people chose silence fearful of the consequence of speaking the truth. Now Dr. Danagchew was sent out of town on a dubious mission of no return where he was assassinated. When some of your officials were asked about his whereabouts, they answered mockingly, “jib belaw” (the hyena ate him up). Of course, the “jib” (hyena) were none other than your henchmen themselves. Shortly after that, they were seen in Addis Abeba driving his fancy vehicle. Did they kill him to confiscate his car? Please read a book about him by his school mate, Mr. Mezgebu G.Amlak, for details. Now Colonel, what is the circumstance of his death? Why was this great Ethiopian murdered just because he desired to alleviate the suffering of his people? Instead of condemning him to die, why didn’t you assign him to a different post or let him go back to academia? Seeing what happened to great scholars and intellectuals like Dr. Danagchew, numerous educated people whose training had cost Ethiopia a fortune, had to stay away overseas on political asylums or flee from that unfortunate land to serve other nations.

I have a question about one more intellectual, Lij Kassa Wolde-mariam, the ex-president of Addis Abeba University. Lij Kassa was serving as a governor of Wollega when he was picked up and arrested by the Derg. About two and half years after he was languishing in prison in 1976, he was taken out ofprison and murdered in cold blood. Why? He was not found guilty of anything except being the son of a nobleman and married to a royal. He was not a threat to your revolution because he was your captive and you had almost consolidated your power. There were many people who were executed like that long after you had stabilized and were in a tight control of Ethiopia. Why were people killed when they were not proven guilty and no longer a threat to your regime?

Speaking of intellectuals and scholars, what did Professor Getachew Haile do to deserve the gunfire set on him by your crude security agents that left him for dead in his house? Who do you think was responsible for gluing him to a wheel chair for the rest of his life, banning him into a life of exile, instead of serving his county? Who will pay for the suffering and pain he and his family went through? The cunning Colonel Tesfaye Wolde-selassie, your Security Chief? Wasn’t he reporting to you?

You critics contend that you showed no mercy when you were in power even to your closest allies including the Meison members. The Meison stuck around as much as they deemed it necessary and desired to leave your Government when they thought they could no longer bear it. You caught most of the leaders including Ato Haile Fidda, the brothers Daniel and Desta Tadesse, Dr. Negist Adane, the wife of Desta Tadesse, while trying to flee. Why did you not spare the lives of your old allies when they were at your mercy? They didn’t shoot at you, did they? They may have talked of going underground and waging armed struggle, but you knew that it was only a talk. Under which earth or ground would they have gone? Didn’t you catch them fleeing to cross Ethiopian borders? It was not in their nature to shoot bullets at you. They were calling those who were shooting bullets such as the EPRP “temenja nekash” (gun-bitters.) Surely, the Meison were as harmless as garden-snakes to you. If you waged war against the EPRP, the reason was obvious. They too were engaged in arms struggle against your government in the cities and countryside. Why was it then necessary to annihilate the members of the Meison that had served you well? Didn’t you ascend to power partly because of them? What did you benefit in condemning them to death except a feeling of vindication? What did Ethiopia gain from their going out of existence? Since most of them were well-educated, Ethiopia could have made some use of their education had you allowed them to exist.

To extend the above questions, of what good was the death of all those educated and uneducated individuals who perished during the Red Terror including the members of EPRP and those attacked by EPRP? You said that it was the EPRP that started the killing. The EPRP asserts that it was your agents that had shot the first bullets killing workers and suspected EPRP members as back as 1975 and 1976 (European Calendar).They cite Shaleka Getachew Shibeshi and Shaleka Birhanu, for example. They alleged that these two had shot to death striking workers at Akaki and Metehara areas. I heard some EPRP members whispering in 1976 when I was on vacation in Ethiopia that some Derg security agents were killing suspects with silencers. In any case, whoever had started the killing, it was on a small scale before you declared the so-called “Red Terror” on a mass level after EPRP attempted on your life. I have no clue how you understood the term “Red Terror”, which originated in the Russian Bolshevik Revolution, but its impact on Ethiopia was devastating.

Ethiopians have been devastated by the Red Terror. People hold grudges against you mainly because of the brutality unleashed and the atrocities committed during this tragic and horrible period of Ethiopian history. Colonel, please allow me to ask you a few questions regarding this period. Where were you when your Kebele cadres were torturing and killing EPRP suspect youngsters by pouring out boiling water and oil on them, by muffling their mouths with rags and were beating them mercilessly, by burning their bleeding bodies with matches, by raping young girls, by picking them from prison at random and shooting them in their drunken stupor, by deforming their bodies and mutilating them and by pulling out their nails? What were you doing Colonel when they were murdering pregnant women, laying the bodies of little boys at the front-yards of their parents’ houses with a label, “I am anarchist dog, etc.” and forcing their parents to sing songs of joy over them? Furthermore, Colonel, what were you doing when the parents of the dead were demanded to pay money for “wasted bullets” in exchange for having the bodies of their beloved, and when the streets of Ethiopian towns were littered with dead bodies? Weren’t you around when elderly parents were arrested, tortured and killed because of their rebellious children and because they didn’t know their whereabouts, and when your henchmen slaughtered husbands to get their wives and wealth? Was this your perception of the Red Terror when you launched it? Were you expecting less horrendous agony and nightmare?

Were you not in town when “Aremenew Girma” the butcher of Arat Kilo, was mowing down anybody that came to his view? Was it not after a list of people that he was about to annihilate including your brother was discovered in his pocket or office that you ordered his execution? Could you, being the head-of-state of Ethiopia then, be absolved completely from responsibility for the atrocities committed by your cadres after they carried out the Red Terror you sanctioned and launched officially?

It looked as if the Derg’s solution to every problem was to kill and kill. But killing and more killing did not alleviate the sufferings of the Ethiopian people. Nor did it improve their lives. None whatsoever. Ethiopia lost the cream of the crops. Ethiopia became bereft of her best children as a result. There is a humor about one of your Derg members. He was asked, “what did you guys do for Ethiopia during your 17 years of reign?” The Derg member answered proudly, “We wiped out the enemies of Ethiopia. We imprisoned a million of them and killed about five hundred thousand. Ethiopia is indebted to us for this great favor”. It seems that the notion of nation-building for you guys was killing and killing.

Colonel, you came to power accusing and condemning Emperor Haile Selassie and his officials for throwing a lavish party and enjoying themselves while the people of Welo were dying from hunger. Ironically enough, you and your officials repeated the same thing ten years after you seized power when millions of Ethiopians were affected by another famine and drought. Obviously, power numbs the powerful making them insensitive to the needs of their subjects in whose name they reign. This holds true even for those who are now in power after they replaced you. The great majority of the Ethiopian people are in no better shape economically than they were 36 years ago. I wonder why all the bloodshed, the torture, dislocation, exile and turmoil were necessary if the outcome is and was more torment and pain. The Ethiopian people have given up holding their hopes high on governments. Why did you repeat the same thing of which you had accused the Emperor? Or are you saying that the millions of Dollars you spent on whisky, food and other stuffs on the 10nth Anniversary of the formation of your party was not a lot of money? The Emperor would say the same about his party.

I cannot list all those brilliant and true sons and daughters of Ethiopia that lost their precious lives because of the murderous atmosphere created by the Derg that refused either to accommodate power sharing or allow the establishment of a civilian government. In the beginning, you and your Derg used to make a loud drumbeat that you were only a provisional military committee (Giziyawi Wotaderawi Derg) and that you would go back to your barracks as soon as a civilian government was established. You didn’t keep that promise. Instead, you yourselves evolved as a “civilian” government and you, Colonel Mengistu Haile-mariam, became the President of Ethiopia by taking off your uniforms after tons of havoc and a lot of carnage. If you really thought of the well-being of Ethiopia and not of your personal ascension to power, why didn’t you establish a civilian government which you were able to oversea as, for instance, did Lieutenant Jerry Rawllings of Ghana? Had you done that, not only you would have stopped all the subsequent tragedy that befell Ethiopia, but you would have gone into history as a great national hero. Instead, you and your Derg members chose to be a government violating the will of the armed forces that sent you to represent them in Addis Ababa. Didn’t you refuse to go back to your respective camps defying the very soldiers that had delegated you to represent them called you back emphasizing the fact that your mission was over? Moreover, you executed together with the officials of the Emperor sincere Ethiopian soldiers such as Yohanis Fitwi of the army aviation, Captain Demessie of the engineering division and Lieutenant Tesfaye Tekle of army aviation again, just to mention only the three, for calling for a civilian government. Lieutenant Tesfaye Tekle was a graduate of the Harer Military Academy with honors and the top of his class. You cut him off at a very young age! He could have served Ethiopia as a great soldier. Frankly, Colonel, did those poor soldiers like Tesfaye, Yohanis and Demessie have to die like that just because they called for a civilian government? They had nothing to do with the corruption of Haile Selassie’ Government, even like you had not. How do you feel when you look at in retrospect? After having posed these questions, I will now move on to the second part of this writing, namely, the criteria for leadership.

A I stated above, you are now history, and as such politically ineffective. However, we can draw a lesson from your story. The Ethiopian people never knew your psychological makeup as well as your social and political backgrounds. The barrel of the gun you were holding covered up all these factors. The people of Ethiopia don’t know much about the background of Ato Meles Zenawi either. Just like you, he seized power by force of arms and legalized it by means of “free and fair election”. Recently, he claimed to have “won” 96% of the votes. In your case you had no contenders even formally. You ran against yourself and “won” 100%. Since you ran against yourself, your 100% victory was not surprising. Ato Meles’ victory is phenomenal. Speaking of his victory, he is reported to have said, “We didn’t know that the people of Ethiopia favored us so much.” Nevertheless, the people of Ethiopia aspire to have leaders who appear on the political scene with fine minds and hearts instead of scary tanks and rockets. To this end, they should have every right to scrutinize their future leaders by investigating their backgrounds.

For example, I have read that you inspired immense fear when you got angry. I have no clue how many devastating actions you have taken in your state of rage and tantrum during the course of your stay in power affecting the lives of your subjects. I have also read that Ato Meles Zenawi loses his temper quickly. His good mother was worried about the fact that he used to scatter things he held in his hands whenever he was provoked to anger. If this is true, I wonder whether his rage has caused him to do things he wouldn’t do in his state of sobriety while he was in the bush and after he marched to Addis Abeba. Ideally, a leader should be more rational than emotional. Atse Tewodros committed untold atrocities after he was perturbed mentally towards the end of his life, such as throwing his subjects down a cliff and burning them alive behind closed doors. Despite his good intentions to unite the country, he had uncontrollable power over the destiny of his subjects. He too, came to power by the barrel of his gun and the sharpness of his sword. The people of Ethiopia then didn’t know about his background either. Our unfortunate people have never had a chance yet to put in power the leaders of their choice without being coerced to do so. From now on, they should know their leaders thoroughly ahead of time and they should set up criteria by which they could gage them before they let them climb the ladders of power.

You also used to get moody frequently. According to those who were associated with you, your face would turn furious whenever you lost tennis games. They had to wait until your bad mood subsided or until a joker made you smile, to ask a favor of you. They said that they would even lose a game or two to you deliberately, so that you wouldn’t get in a bad mood. Being constantly in a bad mood for petty matters is not the best trait of a leader. A good leader should be consistent with his moods, thoughts, emotions, feelings and actions.

Under a genuinely democratic form of government, people do examine the characters and other qualities of their would-be leaders. They have rights to “enthrone” and “dethrone” their leaders. In our case, in the future, the Ethiopian people are entitled to know ahead of election whether the candidates are free from corruption, addiction of drugs, crime, rage, mental disorder or psychopathic behavior , theft, nepotism, power mongering, fight-picking, lies, retribution, betrayal, cronyism , deceit, treason, inferiority or superiority complex and hatred of a particular ethnic group. The best candidates should be well-versed in Ethiopian politics, economy, geography, history, religions, sociology, anthropology, culture, literature and philosophy. Most of all, they should love Ethiopia and her heritage. If they don’t fulfill all or at least most of these criteria, the people of Ethiopia shouldn’t consider to vote for such candidates. A cunning wolf should not be allowed to lead a flock of 85 million innocent sheep. They need a good shepherd and not a wolf.

Colonel Mengistu Haile-mariam, former President of Ethiopia, you are not being charged with corruption, stealing, nepotism, treason, hatred for Ethiopia and denial and mockery of the rich and long history of Ethiopia. Congratulations! Your record is not tainted with these vices! You are only questioned why you seized absolute power by yourself, why you chose the use of force over negotiation, why you unleashed a reign of terror, why you didn’t democratize the county, and most of all, why you didn’t minimize human suffering and death.

During your tenure as a leader, you shone no rays of democracy, and your final years were marked by dictatorship with absolute power in your hand. You are held responsible further for misguided political decisions, unpractical agricultural policy that didn’t improve the lives of the farmers an iota, as well as wrong military administration that caused rifts and conflicts between lower-ranking, semi-literate, political commissars and highly-trained, senior military officers such as colonels and generals, resulting in the breaking of the chain of command and contributing to the defeat of the Ethiopian army.

To sum up, you made Ethiopia lose big time three times: first when you rejected Genal Aman’s plan for Eritrea and caused his untimely death, second when you turned down General Teferi Benti’s call for national reconciliation and you took his life whether he was affiliated with EPRP or not, and third, when you and your Derg refused to return to your camps when the very people who mandated you to go and represent them in Addis Abeba called you back so that a civilian government would be established. Had you done that, you would have stopped the tradition of seizing power by the barrel of the gun once and for all.

I admit that you can’t be blamed for everything that went wrong in Ethiopia. There were internal and external forces that influenced your actions. All these factors should be taken into consideration while assessing your tenure as a leader. And yet, in the final analysis, since you were the head-of-state, you can’t be discharged from responsibility for most of the things that took place during you reign. It waswrong in the first place to expect much from you. You were a soldier after all. Your job was to guard the territory of Ethiopia. When soldiers deviate from their training and duty, and try to lead a nation politically, the result is often catastrophic. It was because they understood this fact that Yohanis Fitwi and Lieutenant Tesfaye Tekele of Army Aviation and Captain Demessie of the army engineering division as well as other genuine soldiers demanded that you relinquish power to a civilian government and go back to your barrack. Instead of heeding to their good advice, you condemned them to die.

Dear Colonel Mengistu Haile-mariam, the people’s court represented by me just tried you. The verdict is here- without discounting your good heritage and some of your positive leadership qualities that I had mentioned in my recent review of the latest book on you, you are charged guilty on five major counts leaving the petty ones aside:

1. You approved and signed the death warranty of 55 of Atse Haile Selassie’s officials, as well as soldiers who demanded your return to the barracks, without their being proven guilty in a court of law. 2. You rejected General Aman’s plan for Eritrea and caused his untimely death contributing to the session of Eritrea. 3. You turned down General Teferi Benti’s call for national reconciliation, killed him and assumed absolute power by yourself resulting in your decree of The Red Terror which wiped out countless Ethiopians from all camps. 3. You refused to return to your barracks in an act of defiance with the desire to seize power illegally when the very soldiers that had mandated you to represent them called you back 4. You let hell loose on the people of Ethiopia when you allowed your henchmen to torture, imprison and kill your political opponents and even innocent individuals. 5.) You showed no mercy and clemency to spare the lives of the coup-makers that were under your custody. This demoralized the soldiers, caused desertions and the gradual defeat of the Ethiopian Army.

I could have gone into the details of a speech you made to your Party in which you spoke proudly how you bayoneted the butts of your generals, ripped off their “stars”, stripped off their ranks and humiliated them before the soldiers they commanded. It is too embarrassing to detail it here.

Colonel, it was your turn to be tried this time. Each leader will stand before the public and give an account of himself sooner or later. Verily, all leaders will be judged by people and history when their time for judgment comes. Tomorrow, it will be the turn of today’s leaders. Indeed, the people of Ethiopia shall judge today’s leaders tomorrow for what they have said and done in their name. I guess that is how history marches. On this occasion, I advice the current leaders not to undermine the people of Ethiopia however weak they may appear outwardly, and I urge them to shape up by drawing a lesson from your case.

Last and least, let me end your trial here. I am not a politician. Nor am I affiliated with any political organizations or groups. I consider myself an independent writer. I would like to think that I love Ethiopia. As a writer, I am duty-bound to expose despotism and falsehood wherever I detect them, and stand on the side of the truth and the people. Whatever I expressed to you was in my capacity as a concerned Ethiopian and a writer. As I said, nothing personal against you. I put on trial only the position you held as a head-of-state. And it was this fact that transpired all my undertaking. I hope this is my last writing to you and on you. If you care to address my concerns and defend yourself, you may do so for the public at large in any language you feel comfortable with. I bid you farewell with this, dear Colonel Mengistu Haile-mariam, First President of Ethiopia, Elect of Self, as opposed to Emperor Haileselassie, “Elect of God”. Or shall we say in both cases, “Elect Of The Barrel of The Gun”? And “elect” of what shall we say of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi now and when he was president? Don’t the two of you have something in common in conducting and winning elections as well as in possessing and controlling absolute power? Is there any possibility that you were his “mentor and role model” pertaining to these? I am just curious.

(Fikre Tolossa, PhD, is a poet-playwright, essayist and educator. His latest book entitled, The Hidden and Untold History of the Jewish People and Ethiopians, as well as his original songs that he himself has composed and plays on the Kirar, will be released soon to the public. His film in English, “Multi-colored Flowers” was featured with great resonance in the USA, Canada, Europe and Ethiopia. He has written extensively on Ethiopian history and culture for the past 20 years upholding the banner of Ethiopiansim high, finding common factors that united the peoples of Ethiopia at a time of identity crisis, historical confusion and denial. Dr. FikreTolossa has authored over forty published and unpublished articles and books in Amharic, German, English and Russian. He could be reached at: [email protected])

Ethiopian extortion victim lands in jail

When we picked up the story about Ethiopian scientist and inventor Admasu Gebre who was thrown in jail for copyright violation in Ethiopia, we were almost certain that the ruling party Woyanne was behind it. We have heard too many similar cases in the past to reach at such a conclusion. Copyright dispute would not land any one in Ethiopian jail unless the complainant or the plaintiff is a member or friend of the ruling party.

The facts we have gathered since the story (see here) published on August 31 indeed show that retired Ethiopian Navy commander Admasu Gebre is a victim extortion. Here are some of the facts we have collected so far:

1. Commander Admasu Gebre, 70, is a native of Ethiopia and currently holds Dutch citizenship. He was a commander of the former Ethiopian Navy. As an engineer and researcher, he holds a patent for Vehicle Guidance System, which is worth tens of millions of dollars (USD). Last year, he started to build a manufacturing plant in a suburb of Addis Ababa that produces solar-powered lamps. He is involved in many other projects as well.

2. Admasu has an interest in the arts. In 2006, he was looking for a film to finance. He is introduced to Los Angeles resident Bruke Mekbib Abayneh that same year. Admasu reads a script titled Mentiyewochu (the twins) written by Adinew (Adonis) Woldemariam. He purchases the script and all domestic and international rights for a total sum of 20,000 birr, which is thought to be a fair market price in 2006.

3. Bruke Mekbeb, under his company Bruke Films Plc in Addis Ababa, signs a one film production agreement with Navcon Energy PLC owned by Admasu Gebre. They agree to split the profits — Bruke 45%, Admasu 55%. Bruke Mekbib does not invest any money in the deal. In fact, Bruke receives a 25,000 Euro advance from Admasu against his future 45% earnings. Bruke uses the advance to rent an office and hire a staff in Addis Ababa. Bruke Mekbib is named as Producer of the film under Executive Producer Adamsu Gebre in local news media.

4. The witness and guarantor during these negotiations, agreements and transactions was Bruke’s uncle Alemseged G. Yohannes the former Addis Ababa Police Deputy Commissioner. No need to go further to find a reason for Admasu’s predicaments. But let’s continue any way.

5. Soon after the agreement, Commissioner Alemseged receives a Euro 10,000 loan from Admasu.

6. After signing the contract in Addis Ababa, Bruke returns to Los Angeles.

7. Los Angeles based filmmakers Zeresenay ‘Z’ Mehari (Director), Alula Amdemicael (Cinematographer) and David L. Smith (Editor) sign on to make the film. Zeresenai Mehari flies to Addis Ababa and starts casting actors.

8. Admasu wires an additional $83,000 into Bruke’s bank account in Los Angeles. The money was to be used to purchase film making equipment.

9. Alula Amdemichael and David Smith identify and assist Bruke in the purchase of all equipment on behalf of Admasu Gebre’s company Navcom Energy PLC. All reciepts are sent to Admasu in Ethiopia.

10. Around this time, Bruke’s uncle, Commissioner (or more commonly known as “Shaleqa”) Alemseged comes to Los Angeles to buy cars to ship to Ethiopia. Bruke takes him to an auction and helps him buy 3 cars.

11. In Addis Ababa, Admasu pays tariff and takes delivery of the equipments. All the equipments were bought in his name.

12. All the purchased film equipment are shipped to Ethiopia via Ethiopian Airlines Cargo in November 2006. Admasu pays all tariffs and takes delivery of his equipment and records all serial numbers and verifies receipts.

13. Bruke, Alula and David arrive in Addis December 5, 2006. Admasu allows equipment to be transferred and housed in Bruke Films offices for the duration of the project. Pre-Production of the film starts right away.

14. In Jan 2007, Zeresenay Mehari resigns and returns to Los Angeles.

15. Alula Andemicael takes over directing duties.

16. Observing that Bruke is incompetent and free spending with the film production money, Admasu tries to replace him from his position as Producer while allowing their financial arrangement to remain intact. Bruke refuses to leave and chases away his replacements through intimidation. Production of the film starts at the end Jan 2007. Admasu and Alemnseged have a very public falling out at the Hilton Hotel Lounge.

17. Admasu goes to court claiming breach of contract. Bruke argues that Admasu refused to give him additional funds to finish production and asks the court to void the initial contract and award him 100 percent ownership of the film.

18. Alemseged is also sued by Admasu for misrepresentation and fraud. After endless appointments at the courts, which is typically followed by new appointments, the film is close to being completed.

19. The court rules in favor of Admasu and orders all film equipment, script copies, filmed material as well as edited footage to be returned to Admasu effective immediately.

20. By this time greed and vendetta set in. The intention of Bruke and Alemseged from here on is to make an example out of Admasu for daring to stand up to members of the ruling class.

21. Admasu wins the court case, but Bruke refuses to return the equipment and film to its rightful owner. The police prove useless in enforcing the court order.

22. After filming is completed in July 2007, Bruke returns some of the equipment and hardware. What was inexplicably missing amongst other things was the raw footage, the Apple G5 computer used for editing and several hard drives containing the ingested film. Admasu cries foul. He is given more appointments (six of them).

23. In September 2007, the court orders Bruke to return all the remaining property to Admasu. But with assistance from Shaleqa Alemseged, he smuggles the computer and hard drives out through Bole Airport and both fly to Los Angeles.

24. Admasu files a complaint through his lawyers in a Los Angeles Court. Admasu’s lawyers present a paper trail proving rightful ownership. The Los Angeles court agrees Admasu is the rightful owner. Admasu’s lawyers take possession of the G5 computer, the hard drives and all its contents.

25. In early 2008, Admasu contracts Alula and David to complete the post production of the film and make it ready for release.

26. Bruke and Shaleqa Alemseged re-launch a new court battle against Admasu, this time with the help of Woyanne heavy-hitters.

27. In June 2008, the film was ready. Alula Andemicael returns to Addis Ababa. Admasu starts the advertising campaign with ads on ETV announcing the release. However, after about two runs, a common thug and an employee of ETV, Tewodros Oqubai, a cousin of Bruke, intimidates ETV programmers into stopping the broadcasting of the ad.

28. Admasu is interviewed on a local radio station. He talks about the details that are happening. Shalaqua Alemseged pays a visits to the radio host and demands a retraction of the interview. Alemseged was too late. The interview was already being broadcast on 104.5 and Alemseged got the pleasure of listening to it in his car as he was driving.

29. Bruke goes to a district court and obtains an injunction against showing the film in theaters. Immediately after that, Admasu gets permission from the President of the High Court to premier the film at Sebastopol Cinema in Addis Ababa.

30. Two days later, Admasu shows the film at Cinema Empire twice in one day. Addis Ababa police pick him up and detain him for 4 days and he is released after the police could not find any legitimate thing to charge him with.

31. The police from Maekelawi (Central Investigation Station) question Alula for 6 hours. Representatives if the US Embassy in Ethiopia along with Admasu and his lawyers arrive at Maekelawi Station on behalf of Alula Amdemicael a US citizen. Alula is told he is free to leave. Federal Police waiting outside Maekelawi arrest Admasu and accuse him of being in possession of a wireless Internet router.

32. Admasu languished in jail for 2 weeks before he gets his day in court. The prosecutor tells the judge, in open court, that Admasu is a genius and that his actions need to be watched carefully as he has the mental power to turn the earth and sky upside down. The embarrassed judge admonishes the prosecutor for uttering such nonsense and orders the Federal Police to release Admasu immediately. The judge apologizes to Admasu.

33. In 2008, Ministry of Trade publishes an article on Addis Fortune announcing Bruke Films PLC to be an illegal entity not allowed to conduct any business in Ethiopia since 2003. It was found that Bruke Films never paid taxes since its inception in 2003. (Bruke Films produced the Teddy Afro Lambadina Music Video series in Ethiopia in 2005, among others works, including several commercials.)

34. In 2009, Bruke takes Admasu to yet another court. Shaleqa Alemseged, who is no longer an official at the Addis Ababa police, currently runs his own private security company, and spends most of his day at Sheraton Hotel and Castellini Restaurant courting local businessmen. On top of running a security company, Alemseged is also known as a fixer (guday asfetsami).

35. There are published reports proving Admasu has won several high value patent infringement cases against such giant corporations like Sony, Motorola, Siemens, Nokia, Thales, BMW, and FORD. Such facts gets the attention of other hustlers. Suddenly, requests for partnerships start to come from powerful elements connected to the ruing party, which Admasu has always declined.

36. Earlier this week, Bruke, Shaleqa Alemseged and gang have finally managed to nail Admasu by manipulating the court system. The kangaroo court hands down a 2.5-year prison sentence against Admasu for a made-up charge of copyright violation.

36. In 2008, Admasu offered Bruke et al yet another olive branch: Let us release the film. We’ll put the proceeds in an escrow account until the court gives a final verdict. Either way, Bruke was to still going to receive his initial 45% share in the profits of the film minus the advances he already had received. Bruke’s response was, “I will show the film after you die.”

Admasu is guilty of one thing for sure: Guilty of being naive about Woyanne.

New energy, secret talks and shifting powers in the Horn

The following article by Gregory R. Copley discusses how the recent discovery of natural gas in Ethiopia is causing shifting of power and strategies in the Horn of Africa and Middle East. Copley, who appears to be well-connected to Western diplomats and intelligence services, is focusing on “new energy,” sea routes, and access to ports, while failing to factor in other conditions, such as the extreme dislike Ethiopians, Eritreans and Somalis have for the minority tribal junta in Ethiopia. If a strong Ethiopian opposition party, perhaps with the assistance of Eritrea, emerges in Ethiopia, most of Copley’s arguments will be invalid. As things stand now, the ball is in Eritrean government’s hand, not in Woyanne’s hand, even with the reported secret talks between Woyanne, OLF and ONLF under the auspices of U.S. officials. With the right policy, the Eritrean government has the opportunity to gain the support of Ethiopia’s 80 million people and crush the hated regime in Ethiopia. Copley’s disturbing analysis also reveals how Western powers view the Horn, i.e., purely in terms of resources, particularly gas and oil. Human rights and the welfare of the people in the region seem to be of no concern.

In the Red Sea region, the Age of Gas Begins in Earnest

By Gregory R. Copley

Major new energy issues are about to transform still further the strategic balance of the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, with foreseeable consequences for the global energy market over the coming decade. Soon-to-be-evident new wealth in the Red Sea/Horn of Africa region will transform the intensity of conflict there, which in turn will affect not only the region, but the world’s most important trading route: the Red Sea/Suez sea line of communication (SLOC).

Much of the anticipated change is developing around the flood of new discoveries and exploitation of natural gas fields in the Indian Ocean region, particularly extending through Ethiopia, Egypt, and other countries of the Red Sea region. Apart from the impending influx of new energy wealth into the region, facilitating new levels of confidence and capability in the security environment, the boom of the “Gas Age” also seems set to promise — within a decade — an oversupply of gas to the world market, almost certainly precipitating a collapse in price for gas and petroleum.1

The strategic balance in the Horn of Africa, and reaching through the Red Sea to Egypt and the Mediterranean, is changing rapidly — and in many respects is becoming more unstable — as political, geopolitical, economic, and ideological issues begin to clash. The war over the reunification of Somalia, incorporating both the old Italian Somaliland (now Somalia) and the Republic of Somaliland, has now become indisputable, and nominally-moderate Egypt has come down firmly on the side of reunifying the area under the clear dominance of an Islamist-dominated but anomic — essentially lawless — Somalia.

Egypt — with its unstable political transition underway at the same time as the discovery of increasing quantities of natural gas — has been covertly supporting a wide range of radical actions along the Red Sea littoral and in the Horn with the sole goal of ensuring that Ethiopia does not use its traditional heartland strength to be able to revive its dominance of the Red Sea and the sea lane which links to Egypt’s Suez Canal.

In the process, however, the Egyptian Government has given support to the same radical jihadist groups which fundamentally oppose Egyptian secular governance, which support Iranian expansion into the Red Sea/Africa framework, and which have transformed a strategically benign Ethiopia into one which must now accept confrontation with Egypt and its regional allies.

This situation has been compounded by the recent Islamist/pan-Somalist success in winning power in Somaliland, but of equal importance has been the first quiet stage of the transformation of Ethiopia into an energy exporting power. Ethiopia’s natural gas reserves which the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) in 2009 rated as zero and in early 2010 at one-trillion cubic feet (TCF), now have been demonstrated to be significant, and gas exports will begin within five years.

Malaysian State-owned oil and gas company Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) has now proven as much as four TCF of gas in its reserves in the Ogaden basin region of Ethiopia. Petronas is one of about 85 companies which have oil and gas exploration licenses in Ethiopia, but the Malaysian company is the first to begin its production phase, which should see a gas treatment plant and a gas pipeline from the Ogaden to Djibouti (at a total cost of $1.9-billion) on-line within five years. Estimated Ethiopian gas reserves, as of 2010 (not “proven reserves”), were reported at 12.46 TCF, but this figure was likely to be expanded frequently as new discoveries are reported.

Significantly, although the externally-supported and -armed Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) has continued to sustain sporadic armed contact with Ethiopian security forces into August 2010, the second week of August saw the senior ONLF leadership in Washington, DC, meeting secretly (under US sponsorship) with representatives of the Ethiopian Government. Just days before that, representatives of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) also met in Washington, DC, with senior Ethiopian Government officials. Both the OLF and the ONLF have been receiving extensive logistical support, weapons, training, and funding from Eritrea, supported directly or indirectly by both Egypt and Iran.

It is now apparent to both the ONLF and OLF that their foreign patrons have been waging a losing battle against the Ethiopian Government, and that, with the growing strength and wealth of the Ethiopian Government, now is the time to consider coming to terms with Addis Ababa.

Any thought that the pan-Somalists, who have recently scored a major success in winning the Presidency of the Republic of Somaliland, can effectively make headway in the ethnically-Somali Ogaden region of Ethiopia have been quashed by the effective military action by the Ethiopian Defense Force (EDF) in its combat contacts with the pan-Somalists. The EDF units involved were almost entirely ethnically Somali (officers and men), and yet acted decisively to quash the Somalian forces fighting them.

Fighting around July 12, 2010, in the el-Dibir area of the Somaliland-Ethiopian border was largely credited in the media with being an EDF attack on civilians, but in fact it involved a clash with Islamist forces that were routed by the EDF, which seized 120 of the Islamists’ trucks and took them to the Ethiopian city of Jijiga.

At the core of all of this has been the proxy war waged by Iranian-backed Islamists, supported by the secular governments of Eritrea and Egypt, to keep Ethiopia landlocked. When the Ethiopian Government, some two years ago, began having an inkling that it might soon be in the gas exporting business, it started negotiations to build a pipeline to the Somaliland port of Berbera.

When it became clear that the UDUB Government of Somaliland was not well-prepared to contest the Presidential elections — which resulted in a pan-Somalist Islamist taking power in July 20102 — Ethiopia was forced to turn back to Djibouti as the only available seaport for the export of Ethiopian gas.3

This is not an ideal situation for Ethiopia, given that Djibouti has traditionally held Ethiopia to ransom — given that it has, once again, a monopoly on Ethiopian trade imports and exports — but it is nonetheless viable for both countries.

At present, the Petronas plans to be exporting natural gas from the Ethiopian Ogaden basin within five years highlight the reality that Ethiopia will soon be in a position to compete economically against Egypt and Eritrea, which have been struggling to keep Ethiopia landlocked. Egypt’s strategic motive, expressed constantly by Cairo, has been to keep Ethiopia — which is vastly more fertile than Egypt and which controls the headwaters of the Blue Nile, which provides Egypt (and Sudan) with most of its water — from posing a strategic threat to Egypt by, potentially, cutting off the flow of Blue Nile waters. In fact, the policy has only served to make the Egyptian fear a reality.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit and Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif, speaking at the African Union summit in Kampala, Uganda, on July 27, 2010, appeared to strike a conciliatory note on the contentious issue of Nile water usage, but Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit slipped into his speech that Egypt sought a “re-unification” of Somalia, bringing Somaliland back into the union with Somalia, something which is clearly tantamount to bringing Somaliland back into civil war and crisis, rather than helping the entire Somali population. Significantly, this was a blow directed directly at Ethiopia and at the West which seeks stability in the Horn of Africa.

Egypt, pointedly, would rather have chaos on the Horn so that it could be the master of the Suez/Red Sea SLOC all the way through the Bab el-Mandeb adjacent to Somaliland, at the entrance to the Indian Ocean. This pointedly, also, meant that Egypt supported constraining Ethiopia from easy access to the Red Sea, which had once been dominated, at its lower reaches, by the Ethiopian Navy. Following the fall of the Dergue control of Ethiopia, Eritrea was encouraged by Ethiopia to declare its independence from Ethiopia in 1993. It did so, taking not only the historical geographic area of Eritrea (the onetime Bar Negus: Kingdom of the North), but also the coastal part of Ethiopia adjacent to Djibouti, and containing the Ethiopian port of Assab, which had never been part of traditional Eritrea, but had been part of the modern administrative zone of Eritrea under the Empire.

The result was that Ethiopia lost its access to the Red Sea, and had anticipated a friendly trading path through “new” Eritrea to the sea, because of the friendly separation of the territories. This was not to be, and Eritrea began making unacceptable demands on Ethiopia, which ultimately led to war, and to the inability of Ethiopia to use the ports of modern Eritrea. The result is that Eritrea is now economically destitute, and Eritrean Pres. Isayas Afawerke is under increasing pressure to see the Ethiopian Government fail.

However, it is also clear that Eritrea can no longer afford to militarily challenge Ethiopia, at least directly. Its military successes against Ethiopia in the 1998-2000 fighting can now not be replicated, given the declining economic fortunes of Eritrea and the rising fortunes of Ethiopia.

Moreover, the prospect of considerable income from gas exports begins to elevate Ethiopia into a new class of military capability. So if Eritrea can no longer directly attack Ethiopia militarily, it must be forced to re-double its proxy warfare, and yet even in this area Ethiopia now seems poised to be able to achieve settlements with the ONLF and OLF, two of the main proxy forces financed by Ethiopia and its allies.

And yet Ethiopia finds itself still restricted in its ability to satisfactorily control its export logistics, other than at the goodwill of Djibouti. Some Ethiopian sources have been saying that should Eritrea again provoke a war, then Ethiopia should sieze back the ports in independent Eritrea which were once Ethiopian ports, particularly Assab, which was never part of “traditional” Eritrea.

Moreover, in the South-Eastern part of modern Eritrea, the area around Assab, there is already great local hostility to being under control of Asmara (the Eritrean capital), and the Eritrean Government of Isayas Afewerke. This hostility takes the form of armed insurrection by ethnic Afars. The Afar Revolutionary Democratic Union (ARDU) has engaged in combat operations since 1993 against the Eritrean Government. They have commanded the attention of brigade-sized Eritrean Government forces, which have unsuccessfully attempted to curb the ARDU. ARDU itself is part of the Alliance of Eritrean National Forces (AENF), an umbrella for opposition groups, mostly Muslim, fighting the Isayas Government.

Ethiopia has, like Eritrea, used proxy forces against its adversarial neighbor. The predominantly Muslim Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF) has been based out of Addis Ababa since Eritrean independence, and continues to fight the Isayas Government in Asmara. But the scale of Ethiopian proxy warfare against Eritrea is nothing like Eritrea’s use of all available proxy resources against Ethiopia. The radical Islamist forces operating in Somalia have long been supported by Eritrea, along with their support from Iran, Egypt, and Libya, as a means of tying down Ethiopian forces and promoting secessionist moves by ethnic Somalis and Oromos in Ethiopia.

Now, unlike a year or two ago, Eritrea recognizes that it can no longer give Ethiopia a pretext to go to war, because it would lose that conflict. On the other hand, Ethiopia’s need for the recovery of its Red Sea access may well have been forced by the combined efforts which recently resulted in, effectively, the loss of access through the Republic of Somaliland, which has succumbed, with broad Eritrean, Iranian, and other aid, to pan-Somalist, Islamist governance. So Ethiopia must bow to whatever demands Djibouti may make on it, in order to use the port of Djibouti, or else Addis Ababa must find a way to take back its territory in the south-eastern, Afar, area of what is the modern Eritrean state.

It would be logical, then, to assume that Addis Ababa would find ways to promote the demands for independence or separation from Eritrea made by ARDU and others. Success, or momentum, by these anti-Isayas forces could eventually trigger Ethiopian military support.

Egypt, however, has been using Eritrea as its own proxy, and such a development might cause Cairo to openly support Eritrea in a military confrontation with Ethiopia, or else face the prospect of a revived Ethiopian naval presence in the Red Sea, and growing Ethiopian wealth and confidence to challenge Egypt and Sudan on the question of the use of Blue Nile waters.

In all of this, the stability of the Red Sea/Suez global SLOC is threatened, and no end is yet to be seen in the anomie — the lawlessness — of Somalia, now being broadened to include Somaliland. As well, the mounting pace of natural gas discovery and exploitation in the region (and more broadly) will — contrary to conventional linear extrapolations of energy market trends — transform global energy markets, and bring about a major shift toward the use of gas, probably to the point of a supply-dominated marketplace causing price falls within a decade.

Footnotes:

1. The situation regarding “proven” gas reserves is changing constantly, but, within the greater Indian Ocean region, the Qatari reserves continue to dominate (although proven reserves declined in 2009 over 2008, due to exploitation), with 892-trillion cubic feet (TCF) of reserves. Iran has even greater proven reserves, presently standing at 992 TCF (according to the US Energy Information Agency: EIA), but has been less able than Qatar to exploit these reserves for the moment. Indonesia in 2009, according to the EIA, had proven reserves of 106 TCF; Pakistan, 31 TCF; Yemen, 17 TCF; Sudan 3 TCF; India, the fourth largest consumer of petroleum in the world, had 38 TCF, and was producing at 1.4 TCF a year in 2009; and Australia (according to Australian estimates) had 100 TCF of proven gas reserves. Most traditional estimates of the global energy market indicate that gas presently commands some 23 percent of the market, a position likely to rise to 29 percent by 2020, with petroleum staying constant at 40 percent market share. This, however, in the view of this analyst, is likely to be affected by (a) growing exploitation of gas fields which will make choices in energy type easier for markets such as India and the People’s Republic of China (PRC); (b) major economic, environmental, and security dislocations which could affect demand and pricing; and (c) the development of new nuclear technologies which may offer cheaper and logistically more secure energy.

2. All of the key portfolios in the new Somaliland Government of Pres. Silanyo had, by early August 2010, been assigned to Islamists, including the ministries of: Interior, Finance, Planning, Aviation, Awqaf (Islamic Endowments), and the Chief of Cabinet.

3. In this regard, too, watch for the opening of Islamic banking in the Somaliland capital, Hargeisa, since the assumption of Islamist and pan-Somalist Pres. Ahmed Mahamoud Silanyo to office in the June 26, 2010, Presidential elections. Dahabshiil, the Somalian bank, was about to open an Islamic bank in Hargeisa, and had already (in March 2010) opened an Islamic bank in Djibouti. Sources in the new Government in Hargeisa said that the new bank in Hargeisa was expected to become the main avenue for the laundering of funds from Hawiye tribal activities in Somalia (former Italian Somaliland) — including foreign-subsidised militant activities — out of Somalia and into the global financial marketplace.

(Analysis by Gregory R. Copley, Editor, GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs, International Strategic Studies Association, StrategicStudies.org)

Woyanne kangaroo court throws Ethiopian scientist in jail

A world-renowned Ethiopian scientist Admasu Gebre, who has invented a Vehicle Guidance System (VGS), was sent to prison for 2 years this week in Ethiopia after a court found him guilty of copyrights violations, according to a report by Addis Fortune. How could some one who is involved in developing a space age technology be thrown in jail like a common criminal for such a minor offense, even if he is really guilty? The case is suspicious, to say the least. Could it be that the scientist refused to make Azeb Mesfin or one of the Woyanne officials a partner in his high-tech business that has a potential to make tones of money? Who is the plaintiff, Bruck Mekbib? Any connection or business relations with Woyanne officials? There is a report, yet to be confirmed, that he ties with associates of Tagay Gebremedhin. On top of the VGS, Admasu Gebre, a retired commander of the former Ethiopian Navy, has been constructing a lamp manufacturing plant in Kality, a suburb of Addis Ababa, that produces solar-powered lamps. Ethiopians like Commander Admasu are national treasures who need to be supported and encouraged, not be thrown in jail for minor infractions, if indeed there is an infraction of the law on his part.

The following is Addis Fortune’s report:

ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA — Admasu Gebre, who is credited for the innovation of a vehicle guidance system (VGS), was sentenced to serve two and a half years of imprisonment after he was found guilty of copyright violations over an Amharic film.

Admasu, 70, on behalf of his company, Navcom Energy Plc, signed an agreement in the United States (US) with Bruke Films Plc to produce a film titled “Menteyochu” or “The Twins”, on July 2006, with a budget of 800,000 Br. Navcom Energy Plc would finance the film while the profits were to be shared at a ratio of 45pc to 55pc, the former to be paid to Bruke, they agreed.

However, Admasu was charged by federal prosecutors along with Alula Amdemichael (a cameraman) at the Federal High Court on December 4, 2008. They were accused of bringing the movie to the country after completion without the knowledge of Bruke Mekbib, the producer and director of the film, and for changing the original title to “Le Abatewa,” literally translated “For Her Father”.

They screened the film on its inaugural at Sebastopol Cinema and for the public at Cinema Empire twice in a day in June 2008, according to the charges. The defendants transgressed the economic rights of the producer, violating copyright laws, the prosecutor alleged.

The charge against the second defendant was dropped as he was not apprehended, while Admasu presented documentary evidence denying all of the charges instituted against him. However, the court found the defendant guilty on Wednesday, August 25, 2010, stating that the evidence presented by the defendant actually proves the prosecutor’s case.

On the same day, the court heard mitigating and aggravating circumstances for sentencing. The crime, was committed for personal gain and with the participation of others, which should be taken as aggravating circumstances, argued the prosecutor.

The defence lawyer raised the defendant’s nationality (Dutch), age, health condition (arthritis), lack of a previous criminal record, and his being the head of a family to be taken as mitigating circumstances. The defence lawyer requested the court to substitute the prison sentence for a fine or to suspend the sentence.

The court adjourned the case for two more days for sentencing and ordered Admasu, who was out on bail during the trial, to be escorted to the Addis Abeba Prison Centre.

The long legal battle, which was presided over by four different judges and several prosecutors, was finally concluded on Friday, August 27, 2010.

The judge sentenced Admasu to serve two years and six months at the Addis Abeba Prison Centre, taking into consideration the mitigating grounds raised by the defendant.

“We will appeal,” the defence lawyer told his client who was standing in the defendant’s box and wearing a blue suit, right after the court sentencing.

“This is not just my victory,” Bruke told Fortune. “Your social status does not matter. The justice system works for all.”

Bruke Films Plc is planning to file a civil suit against Admasu and his company to recover the expenses that it incurred during production, the earnings that it lost from the film, and other economic and moral losses, according to Bruke.

Bruke also intends to file criminal and civil suits against Workman Nydegger (a law firm), James B. Belshe (a lawyer), David L. Smith (the editor of the film), and Alula, for allegedly conspiring to take the film without his knowledge.

Admasu, who was awarded a European patent in 1992 for his invention of a vehicle guidance system, was brought to the prison in a bus by prison officers along with several other detainees after sentencing. His innovation, which is installed in vehicles, is used as a dependable means of guiding a vehicle from one point to another as desired by the operator.

Lidetu, Samuel, Hailu and more acts of shame

If Ethiopia’s second richest person (among the hodam class), Samuel Tafesse, has even a speck of pride, he would feel great shame Saturday night when over half of those he invited to his lavish party failed to show up.

Ethiopian Review has learned that out of the 400 people who were invited, less than half went to the Mandarin Oriental, a luxury hotel in Washington DC to wine and dine with Azeb Mesfin’s business partner.

Two individuals who had received invitations told EthiopianReview.com that they didn’t go to the party because they do not want their photos to show up on web sites.

On Friday, Etete Restaurant managers were telling callers that their customers are mostly Americans and that they don’t really care if Ethiopians boycott them.

Meanwhile, sources of Ethiopian Review Investigation Unit have reported that the disgraced chairman of EDP Lidetu Ayalew was forced to leave a wedding party in Addis Ababa a few days before he arrived in the U.S. this month.

hailu shawel lidetu ayalew and bereket simon nov 2009_145323.jpg-145749According to the sources, every one at the wedding stopped eating the food until the hosts ask Lidetu and friends to leave. Lidetu had no choice but to leave in disgrace.

Lidetu’s partner-in-shame, Hailu Shawel is expanding his business in Ethiopia after bowing down to Meles Zenawi. His company is currently building (see the photo below) a multi-million-dollar entertainment center for Woyanne families, as well as Arab sheiks who are tuning  Addis Ababa into their favorite whorehouse. The facility has no use for most Ethiopians who are barely surviving.


Below, Hailu Shawel’s son, Shawel Hailu, poses for photo in front of the massive entertainment complex that his family’s company is building in Addis Ababa. This is one of the rewards Hailu Shawel Shewden has apparently received for betraying the people of Ethiopia.

Below is Hailu Shawel’s just completed night club, bowling and swimming facility in Addis Ababa to be used by famiiles of the ruling class, Woyannes and their children >>