The following article by Gregory R. Copley discusses how the recent discovery of natural gas in Ethiopia is causing shifting of power and strategies in the Horn of Africa and Middle East. Copley, who appears to be well-connected to Western diplomats and intelligence services, is focusing on “new energy,” sea routes, and access to ports, while failing to factor in other conditions, such as the extreme dislike Ethiopians, Eritreans and Somalis have for the minority tribal junta in Ethiopia. If a strong Ethiopian opposition party, perhaps with the assistance of Eritrea, emerges in Ethiopia, most of Copley’s arguments will be invalid. As things stand now, the ball is in Eritrean government’s hand, not in Woyanne’s hand, even with the reported secret talks between Woyanne, OLF and ONLF under the auspices of U.S. officials. With the right policy, the Eritrean government has the opportunity to gain the support of Ethiopia’s 80 million people and crush the hated regime in Ethiopia. Copley’s disturbing analysis also reveals how Western powers view the Horn, i.e., purely in terms of resources, particularly gas and oil. Human rights and the welfare of the people in the region seem to be of no concern.
In the Red Sea region, the Age of Gas Begins in Earnest
By Gregory R. Copley
Major new energy issues are about to transform still further the strategic balance of the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, with foreseeable consequences for the global energy market over the coming decade. Soon-to-be-evident new wealth in the Red Sea/Horn of Africa region will transform the intensity of conflict there, which in turn will affect not only the region, but the world’s most important trading route: the Red Sea/Suez sea line of communication (SLOC).
Much of the anticipated change is developing around the flood of new discoveries and exploitation of natural gas fields in the Indian Ocean region, particularly extending through Ethiopia, Egypt, and other countries of the Red Sea region. Apart from the impending influx of new energy wealth into the region, facilitating new levels of confidence and capability in the security environment, the boom of the “Gas Age” also seems set to promise — within a decade — an oversupply of gas to the world market, almost certainly precipitating a collapse in price for gas and petroleum.1
The strategic balance in the Horn of Africa, and reaching through the Red Sea to Egypt and the Mediterranean, is changing rapidly — and in many respects is becoming more unstable — as political, geopolitical, economic, and ideological issues begin to clash. The war over the reunification of Somalia, incorporating both the old Italian Somaliland (now Somalia) and the Republic of Somaliland, has now become indisputable, and nominally-moderate Egypt has come down firmly on the side of reunifying the area under the clear dominance of an Islamist-dominated but anomic — essentially lawless — Somalia.
Egypt — with its unstable political transition underway at the same time as the discovery of increasing quantities of natural gas — has been covertly supporting a wide range of radical actions along the Red Sea littoral and in the Horn with the sole goal of ensuring that Ethiopia does not use its traditional heartland strength to be able to revive its dominance of the Red Sea and the sea lane which links to Egypt’s Suez Canal.
In the process, however, the Egyptian Government has given support to the same radical jihadist groups which fundamentally oppose Egyptian secular governance, which support Iranian expansion into the Red Sea/Africa framework, and which have transformed a strategically benign Ethiopia into one which must now accept confrontation with Egypt and its regional allies.
This situation has been compounded by the recent Islamist/pan-Somalist success in winning power in Somaliland, but of equal importance has been the first quiet stage of the transformation of Ethiopia into an energy exporting power. Ethiopia’s natural gas reserves which the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) in 2009 rated as zero and in early 2010 at one-trillion cubic feet (TCF), now have been demonstrated to be significant, and gas exports will begin within five years.
Malaysian State-owned oil and gas company Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) has now proven as much as four TCF of gas in its reserves in the Ogaden basin region of Ethiopia. Petronas is one of about 85 companies which have oil and gas exploration licenses in Ethiopia, but the Malaysian company is the first to begin its production phase, which should see a gas treatment plant and a gas pipeline from the Ogaden to Djibouti (at a total cost of $1.9-billion) on-line within five years. Estimated Ethiopian gas reserves, as of 2010 (not “proven reserves”), were reported at 12.46 TCF, but this figure was likely to be expanded frequently as new discoveries are reported.
Significantly, although the externally-supported and -armed Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) has continued to sustain sporadic armed contact with Ethiopian security forces into August 2010, the second week of August saw the senior ONLF leadership in Washington, DC, meeting secretly (under US sponsorship) with representatives of the Ethiopian Government. Just days before that, representatives of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) also met in Washington, DC, with senior Ethiopian Government officials. Both the OLF and the ONLF have been receiving extensive logistical support, weapons, training, and funding from Eritrea, supported directly or indirectly by both Egypt and Iran.
It is now apparent to both the ONLF and OLF that their foreign patrons have been waging a losing battle against the Ethiopian Government, and that, with the growing strength and wealth of the Ethiopian Government, now is the time to consider coming to terms with Addis Ababa.
Any thought that the pan-Somalists, who have recently scored a major success in winning the Presidency of the Republic of Somaliland, can effectively make headway in the ethnically-Somali Ogaden region of Ethiopia have been quashed by the effective military action by the Ethiopian Defense Force (EDF) in its combat contacts with the pan-Somalists. The EDF units involved were almost entirely ethnically Somali (officers and men), and yet acted decisively to quash the Somalian forces fighting them.
Fighting around July 12, 2010, in the el-Dibir area of the Somaliland-Ethiopian border was largely credited in the media with being an EDF attack on civilians, but in fact it involved a clash with Islamist forces that were routed by the EDF, which seized 120 of the Islamists’ trucks and took them to the Ethiopian city of Jijiga.
At the core of all of this has been the proxy war waged by Iranian-backed Islamists, supported by the secular governments of Eritrea and Egypt, to keep Ethiopia landlocked. When the Ethiopian Government, some two years ago, began having an inkling that it might soon be in the gas exporting business, it started negotiations to build a pipeline to the Somaliland port of Berbera.
When it became clear that the UDUB Government of Somaliland was not well-prepared to contest the Presidential elections — which resulted in a pan-Somalist Islamist taking power in July 20102 — Ethiopia was forced to turn back to Djibouti as the only available seaport for the export of Ethiopian gas.3
This is not an ideal situation for Ethiopia, given that Djibouti has traditionally held Ethiopia to ransom — given that it has, once again, a monopoly on Ethiopian trade imports and exports — but it is nonetheless viable for both countries.
At present, the Petronas plans to be exporting natural gas from the Ethiopian Ogaden basin within five years highlight the reality that Ethiopia will soon be in a position to compete economically against Egypt and Eritrea, which have been struggling to keep Ethiopia landlocked. Egypt’s strategic motive, expressed constantly by Cairo, has been to keep Ethiopia — which is vastly more fertile than Egypt and which controls the headwaters of the Blue Nile, which provides Egypt (and Sudan) with most of its water — from posing a strategic threat to Egypt by, potentially, cutting off the flow of Blue Nile waters. In fact, the policy has only served to make the Egyptian fear a reality.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit and Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif, speaking at the African Union summit in Kampala, Uganda, on July 27, 2010, appeared to strike a conciliatory note on the contentious issue of Nile water usage, but Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit slipped into his speech that Egypt sought a “re-unification” of Somalia, bringing Somaliland back into the union with Somalia, something which is clearly tantamount to bringing Somaliland back into civil war and crisis, rather than helping the entire Somali population. Significantly, this was a blow directed directly at Ethiopia and at the West which seeks stability in the Horn of Africa.
Egypt, pointedly, would rather have chaos on the Horn so that it could be the master of the Suez/Red Sea SLOC all the way through the Bab el-Mandeb adjacent to Somaliland, at the entrance to the Indian Ocean. This pointedly, also, meant that Egypt supported constraining Ethiopia from easy access to the Red Sea, which had once been dominated, at its lower reaches, by the Ethiopian Navy. Following the fall of the Dergue control of Ethiopia, Eritrea was encouraged by Ethiopia to declare its independence from Ethiopia in 1993. It did so, taking not only the historical geographic area of Eritrea (the onetime Bar Negus: Kingdom of the North), but also the coastal part of Ethiopia adjacent to Djibouti, and containing the Ethiopian port of Assab, which had never been part of traditional Eritrea, but had been part of the modern administrative zone of Eritrea under the Empire.
The result was that Ethiopia lost its access to the Red Sea, and had anticipated a friendly trading path through “new” Eritrea to the sea, because of the friendly separation of the territories. This was not to be, and Eritrea began making unacceptable demands on Ethiopia, which ultimately led to war, and to the inability of Ethiopia to use the ports of modern Eritrea. The result is that Eritrea is now economically destitute, and Eritrean Pres. Isayas Afawerke is under increasing pressure to see the Ethiopian Government fail.
However, it is also clear that Eritrea can no longer afford to militarily challenge Ethiopia, at least directly. Its military successes against Ethiopia in the 1998-2000 fighting can now not be replicated, given the declining economic fortunes of Eritrea and the rising fortunes of Ethiopia.
Moreover, the prospect of considerable income from gas exports begins to elevate Ethiopia into a new class of military capability. So if Eritrea can no longer directly attack Ethiopia militarily, it must be forced to re-double its proxy warfare, and yet even in this area Ethiopia now seems poised to be able to achieve settlements with the ONLF and OLF, two of the main proxy forces financed by Ethiopia and its allies.
And yet Ethiopia finds itself still restricted in its ability to satisfactorily control its export logistics, other than at the goodwill of Djibouti. Some Ethiopian sources have been saying that should Eritrea again provoke a war, then Ethiopia should sieze back the ports in independent Eritrea which were once Ethiopian ports, particularly Assab, which was never part of “traditional” Eritrea.
Moreover, in the South-Eastern part of modern Eritrea, the area around Assab, there is already great local hostility to being under control of Asmara (the Eritrean capital), and the Eritrean Government of Isayas Afewerke. This hostility takes the form of armed insurrection by ethnic Afars. The Afar Revolutionary Democratic Union (ARDU) has engaged in combat operations since 1993 against the Eritrean Government. They have commanded the attention of brigade-sized Eritrean Government forces, which have unsuccessfully attempted to curb the ARDU. ARDU itself is part of the Alliance of Eritrean National Forces (AENF), an umbrella for opposition groups, mostly Muslim, fighting the Isayas Government.
Ethiopia has, like Eritrea, used proxy forces against its adversarial neighbor. The predominantly Muslim Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF) has been based out of Addis Ababa since Eritrean independence, and continues to fight the Isayas Government in Asmara. But the scale of Ethiopian proxy warfare against Eritrea is nothing like Eritrea’s use of all available proxy resources against Ethiopia. The radical Islamist forces operating in Somalia have long been supported by Eritrea, along with their support from Iran, Egypt, and Libya, as a means of tying down Ethiopian forces and promoting secessionist moves by ethnic Somalis and Oromos in Ethiopia.
Now, unlike a year or two ago, Eritrea recognizes that it can no longer give Ethiopia a pretext to go to war, because it would lose that conflict. On the other hand, Ethiopia’s need for the recovery of its Red Sea access may well have been forced by the combined efforts which recently resulted in, effectively, the loss of access through the Republic of Somaliland, which has succumbed, with broad Eritrean, Iranian, and other aid, to pan-Somalist, Islamist governance. So Ethiopia must bow to whatever demands Djibouti may make on it, in order to use the port of Djibouti, or else Addis Ababa must find a way to take back its territory in the south-eastern, Afar, area of what is the modern Eritrean state.
It would be logical, then, to assume that Addis Ababa would find ways to promote the demands for independence or separation from Eritrea made by ARDU and others. Success, or momentum, by these anti-Isayas forces could eventually trigger Ethiopian military support.
Egypt, however, has been using Eritrea as its own proxy, and such a development might cause Cairo to openly support Eritrea in a military confrontation with Ethiopia, or else face the prospect of a revived Ethiopian naval presence in the Red Sea, and growing Ethiopian wealth and confidence to challenge Egypt and Sudan on the question of the use of Blue Nile waters.
In all of this, the stability of the Red Sea/Suez global SLOC is threatened, and no end is yet to be seen in the anomie — the lawlessness — of Somalia, now being broadened to include Somaliland. As well, the mounting pace of natural gas discovery and exploitation in the region (and more broadly) will — contrary to conventional linear extrapolations of energy market trends — transform global energy markets, and bring about a major shift toward the use of gas, probably to the point of a supply-dominated marketplace causing price falls within a decade.
Footnotes:
1. The situation regarding “proven” gas reserves is changing constantly, but, within the greater Indian Ocean region, the Qatari reserves continue to dominate (although proven reserves declined in 2009 over 2008, due to exploitation), with 892-trillion cubic feet (TCF) of reserves. Iran has even greater proven reserves, presently standing at 992 TCF (according to the US Energy Information Agency: EIA), but has been less able than Qatar to exploit these reserves for the moment. Indonesia in 2009, according to the EIA, had proven reserves of 106 TCF; Pakistan, 31 TCF; Yemen, 17 TCF; Sudan 3 TCF; India, the fourth largest consumer of petroleum in the world, had 38 TCF, and was producing at 1.4 TCF a year in 2009; and Australia (according to Australian estimates) had 100 TCF of proven gas reserves. Most traditional estimates of the global energy market indicate that gas presently commands some 23 percent of the market, a position likely to rise to 29 percent by 2020, with petroleum staying constant at 40 percent market share. This, however, in the view of this analyst, is likely to be affected by (a) growing exploitation of gas fields which will make choices in energy type easier for markets such as India and the People’s Republic of China (PRC); (b) major economic, environmental, and security dislocations which could affect demand and pricing; and (c) the development of new nuclear technologies which may offer cheaper and logistically more secure energy.
2. All of the key portfolios in the new Somaliland Government of Pres. Silanyo had, by early August 2010, been assigned to Islamists, including the ministries of: Interior, Finance, Planning, Aviation, Awqaf (Islamic Endowments), and the Chief of Cabinet.
3. In this regard, too, watch for the opening of Islamic banking in the Somaliland capital, Hargeisa, since the assumption of Islamist and pan-Somalist Pres. Ahmed Mahamoud Silanyo to office in the June 26, 2010, Presidential elections. Dahabshiil, the Somalian bank, was about to open an Islamic bank in Hargeisa, and had already (in March 2010) opened an Islamic bank in Djibouti. Sources in the new Government in Hargeisa said that the new bank in Hargeisa was expected to become the main avenue for the laundering of funds from Hawiye tribal activities in Somalia (former Italian Somaliland) — including foreign-subsidised militant activities — out of Somalia and into the global financial marketplace.
(Analysis by Gregory R. Copley, Editor, GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs, International Strategic Studies Association, StrategicStudies.org)
50 thoughts on “New energy, secret talks and shifting powers in the Horn”
A would be 12.46 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in the hands of Woyanes?
Interesting!!!
guys please,
let’s hurry and oust these thugs.. before they come into an amazing amount of wealth and leach on our country forever :(-
Dear Elias:
I beg to differ with your analysis. At the time when our great king, bless his soul, was in power all our arch enemies like Egypt did support and are the main causes of all the LFs in Ethiopia. Which means TPLF and EPLF are also born out of this process. Shabia is not the solution. I have always differed on this idea. The maximum we can do reconciliation among all confused and messy political parties which include Shabia. Otherwise, just wishful thinking is a waste of time. Time is changing for real. Thank you for posting this article.
Excuse my french by this article is load of BS. The author is no longer getting any bribes from the newly elected goverment in Somaliland hence all these crazy accusations he is coming up as of late. He thinks he can scared them with these meaningless articless. I say think again. On another note, he is no authority in any field be it energy or security, infact he can be hired by the highest biddder. Try and search for his non-existent organisation to see it for yourself.
Ethiopians please let us wage armed struggle against this Woyane cancer before it is too late. and we need it now independent of the neighboring power cos none of them are helpful for us. only their interest, not Ethiopian interest.
The writer attempted to convince his readers with “sound” facts. I think the geopolitical situaion in that part of the world is more complex and there are no simple external solutions.
Elias you are intelligent enough to know that everything that was said was outlandish lies that was made to paint the picture of Eritrea as “jumping board of terrorism”. Yall know well enough to know that Eritrea cares the well fair of its citizens and promote peace through out the regions. We Eritreans was in war and we know the price of wars. We are no ones slaves or lap dogs like Ethiopia is to the west. We Eritreans have been living with our sweat no need for financial aid or food aid. All this conspiracy that is perpetrated to our beloved land(Eritrea) was meant to demonize and justify if a war was to breakout. Elias don’t make a mistake the EPLF has destroyed the derge and this Woyanne junta. We are a law abiding nation when we have a disagreement regarding a land like the one between Eritrea and yemen over the Hanish islands we accepted the arbitrate decision; and we also would respect the EEBC decision if it has went the other way. But as a usual the UN has became a dirty agency that is used to facilities a certain western nations propaganda especially the US.The war of 1998-2000 was the war to gain the access to the port of Assab in which millions of Ethiopia ethnicity was put on the front lines except the tigrian; which the result was a dismal failure by the Woyanne junta.The Woyanne junta isn’t interested bringing peace to the horn africa especially since they gain the most by dooming the horn in endless war that would eventually bring “the big boys” that are interesting seeing a peace in the horn wink wink lol. Elias those who don’t know the history they are doomed to repeat it comes to mind when you start analyzing the Woyanne junta. As always the Eritrean government is in business of improving the eritrean population have a better living quality which is engaged through out the nation. As far as painting Eritrea black is considered by pundits just take a look @ Iraq; in which made it looks as the harbenger of death with those naughty “weapons of mass destructions” wink wink. Its really sad that even with its discovery of natural gas the living standard will not improve @ all in fact it will be the opposite direction. Elias the derge tried to negotiate @ the end in 1988 in Atlanta, Georgia but the EPLF says no dice for better or worst after all it was USA playing the role of mediator in which tries to bring the derge whose are supported by its arch enemy;that is a mystery and suspicion @ the same time. Time will unravel everything just need to stay patient a little bit.
God bless President Issayas Afewerki, peace to the people of Somalia and consciousness to the people of Ethiopia.
If the Woyanne junta grows a ball and decides to invade an inch of Eritrean territories make no mistake we will slap them back to Addis Abeba and let the people deal with them. Peace be for all.
This is a false USA (CIA) propaganda to fool the Ethiopian people. They are working concertedly to prolong the life of the puppet Meles and his party. How come that the natural gas availability is rated from 0 to trillions in just one year. America is also boasting to enact a law that will demand the resumption of the democracty process in Ethiopia. All Ethiopians should know that we don’t have any semblance of a government in Ethiopia it is just a gang full of little men that can’t do anything other than looting and destroying the country. Don’t fall for such economic and political propaganda being disseminated by USA and its agents.
Elias,
I appreciate your efforts in informing us about important issues concerning our country, particularly news which we would otherwise never hear of. However, you analysis is VERY biased. I assume that you have eritrian connections and perhaps support as well. But the last thing we need now is a single-minded, ultra-biased proposition that eritrea is the only ticket we have out of our desperate state. We do not forget that shabiya is the main cause of all the trouble we faced for the past 40 years.
SO, please, present us with the story, and we be the judge!
There are two points to note regarding this article:
1: It is true that the new energy sources potential that Ethiopia can be considered as being rich in are attracting the west.
To that extent the writer is right.
2: In relation to the leverage that the repressive Meles Zenawi’s regime may/not possess and the influences it might have, it is all a wishful thinking and certainly the issue around negotiation with the OLF, ONLF… has been lifted up from the regime’s latest false claims.
In fact, the west has realised the inflexibility of the TPLF/EPRDF Mafioso ruling clique in the wake of the fake elections outcome and the continued illegal detention of Judge Birtukan Midekssa who is the symbol of a peaceful unified leadership.
Tyrant Meles Zenawi has failed and his regime has nothing to offer to be a partner in peace or development. Who misses that point apart from the repressive regime itself?
With respect to Eritrea, the Eritrean regime should wise up to the need for pacifying conflicts and of genuinely working with all stake-holders including its own constituencies.
Only accountable governance would bring a lasting peace, balanced international relations and a meaningful development.
The article contributes nothing in that direction. It looks like it was written by a consultant with a particular emphasis as a mechanism for attention diversion away from the TPLF/EPRDF regime’s loss of credibility both at home and internationally.
Biri
This article sounds as if meles sat this writer and dictated to him what to write. How can he claim Assab has never been part of traditional Eritrea, whatever that means? Assab was created by Italy. There wasn´t any port called assab before Italy showed up in the area. Pity, people without deep knowledge of the area generally and the history of Eritrea and Ethiopia particularly can take these assertions as fact. Plus the claim that Egypt uses Eritrea as proxy is nonsense. Eritrea is no “errand boy” for no country. Never was and never will be. In the end the only fact one can deduce from this so called article is that the guy is calling for war to restart. These kind of people should be condemned for war mongering. Garbage article.
Wow, this article is well analysed based on clearly defined and visible facts.
I don’t understand why ER has a problem when the weakness and useless nature of the Eritrian regime is disclosed.
A dictator that has deep rooted hate towards Ethiopia and its people, won’t fight even negotiate for the best interest of Ethiopia. Tyrant Meles will sell Ethiopia to the highest bidder and dismantle Ethiopia in the processes. As I have been predicting — war with Eritrea is inevitable, and Meles will be the emperor of that Greater Tigrea with Eritrea under his wings. Ethiopia with a cold-hearted leader, and a country that is surrounded by Islamic countries — is in great danger. I am afraid our beloved country is going to end up with the worst deal, and divided at the end. Without a doubt, the surrounding Islamic countries, love to see Ethiopia divided for their advantage to control Nile, and the predicting oil, than dealing with eighty million united Ethiopians. May the loving God protect Ethiopia from all evil.
This gibberish is part wild guess, part speculation, part propaganda, part blind hatred for Muslims, and little fact.
What a rubbish jargon from dumb mind.
is this guy realy arealistic man? we know long ago EPRDF were trying to divided somalis. but how comes this man came aconculision KULMIYE party in somaliland is a islamist favour party, to me he look like an EPRDF spokesman not a writer, because since somaliland had a democratic transparents election MELEZ AND EPRDF ( i don’t like to call them ethiopia coz they don’t represent nobody in ethiopia)feel ashamed at international stage and seems they are not happy what has taken place nextdoor and reason is evrybody knows EPRDF doesn’t like free election, so they started attemting to play only card wich works now and that is islamist and terrorist, to me this time it will never work.
Elias – from time to time you are confirming to us that you have no clue about the problems facing the Horn of Africa. One of the best proof of this is your claim in which you said ” the ball is in Eritrean government’s hand, not in Woyanne’s hand”. The Eritrean goverment was and is the source of all evils in the Horn of Africa. If you want to serve your government as lobbyist please close this site and open a new “Eritrean Review” site. You really become a disgrace to this famous Ethiopian site.
Let God bless Ethiopia.
Kewle
The new thing is woyane has launched dialogue with OLF and OLNF. The opposition parties that are trying to do the same with these parties
But with regard shabya and esayas never trust them they are the ones who say they gave us assignment of discord for hundred years.
Woyanes are enemies of Ethiopia they are always number one to hurt the people and the country. What is the intrest the country has with ELF Arab mercinaries? The God of Abreham shall deal with evils and bloody politicians but as people we need to cooperate to uproot the evil vulture woyane.
Obejection to the idea that Ethiopia need to be liberated by Eritria.You seem to be fixated with this notion and by sheer repeatation you hope some how willgain some currency.Make no mistake aboiut,for this to happen all Ethiopians must be hit by some metor to their extinction.
Eritrians secure their independence as a result of huge support they were able to receive from Arab nations.These includes Syria,Iraque,Sudan,Egypt,Yemen,Saudiarabia,Kuwait,libya,eden,and Sumalia the latter at least in radio propoganda.This is not all, Isaya’s shabia used tplf to anhilate the rival ELF as well as to dipose the Ethiopian regim-In other words,I.A lip-froged with Arabs and Ethiopians to give birth to his dictatorial reign.
Is there any commen value between those Ethiopians who are aspiring liberal demcracy and the dictator I.A and his represive machine -malignant shabia .
Ethiopians are well advised now to rergroup around our NATIONAL COR VALUES AND ASERT THE FACT THAT STILL WE CAN BE, AND HAVE THE RESPONSIBLITY TO BE IN CHARGE OF OUR DESTINY DEPENDING SOLELY ONTHR MANPOWER AND RESOURCES OF OUR PEOPLE.
OUR PEOPLE ARE TIRED OF MULTI ORGANIZATIONS WHO CLAIM TO BE REPRESENTING THEM YET ARE IN BED WITH THE ARCH ENEMY-SHABIA.THIS OUGHT NOT BE,BECAUSE SOONER OR LATER GROUPS WHO COMPROMISE ON FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLE WILL NOT SUCCED.THIS IN TURN WILL CAST DOUBTAND WEAKEN ON THE FIGHTING SPIRT OF OUR PEOPLE.tHIS NEED TO BE PREVENTED NOW.THE BEST STRATEGY ETHIOPIA HAS IS TO LEAN ON NO ONE BUT ON OUR PEOPLE INORDER TO REMOVE WEYANE.IT IS TIME EXISTING ORGANIZATIONS COME OUT AND ASSURE ETHIOPIANS ABOUT THEIR RELATIONS WITH SHABIA.IF NOT THE REST OF US MUST NOT SIT AND SEE AT CRITICAL JUNCTURE AND RELEGATE THIS TASK TO THOSE WHO SEEM TO BE MOVING RECKLESSLY.I THINK WE NEED TO BE REMINDED ABOUT THE LEGASY OF OUR PAAST.
1-ETHIOPIANS HAVE ALLWAYS ACTIVELY ACTED ON THE SCENE OF HISTORY AND HAVE NEVER BEEN PASSIVE BY STANDERS ON MAJOUR EVNTS.
2-ETHIOPIANS HAVE ALWAYS PAYED GREAT SACRIFICES FOR THEIR FREEDOM MORE THAN ANY NATION IN THE CONTENENT OF AFRICA-THIS IS ATESTED BY OUR HISTORY-THE NATIONAL RESISTANCE DURING MINILIK AND SECOND WORLD WAR.
3-OUR HISTORY NEED NOT DIE HERE,IT MUST CONTINUE,IT CAN CONTINUE ONLY WHEN ETHIOPIANS ACCEPT THE FACT THEY HAVE GREATER RESPONSIBLITY TO SHAPE THE COURSE OF THEIR COUNTRY BASED ON THE PRINCIPLE OF SELF SUFFICIENCEY.
FOR THIS REASON IT IS WELL OVER DUE THAT WE THE DIVERSE YET A COMMUNITY OF NATION COME TO OUR SENSES TO CARRY THE BANNER SO THAT THE NEXT GENERATION OF ETHIOPIANS CAN LIVE IN PEACE AND PROSPERTY.
Elias, I know what you are trying to say … and I feel the same way as you are feeling.
But I know this, Ethiopia will be able to have a good government and defeat her ENEMIES! (all of them)
#7 Eritrean pride
Wake up man, you have blamed Ethiopia since the 1960’s for all the predicament you are in today and you still blame Ethiopia for your pethetic predicament. Eritrea once a province of Ethiopia, has become a country and still is the arch nemesis of Ethiopia and what is worest and dangerous is that it has been a tool for Iran and Egypt to creat chaos and havoc in Ethiopia and East Africa. Shabia remains the # 1 enemy of Ethiopia. Meles may be forced to invade Eritrea for the sake of having a sea outlet which he doesn’t want to see Ethiopia reclaim its rightful ownership of Assab, but my prayer is that, he will be forced to for the sake of his own servival to bring once again Assab back to Ethiopia– I see the almighty God’s work in this scenario. The Ethiopian people never wanted to take what is not theirs but to keep what is theirs and the righteous people once again will reclaim their own belonging– Assab. I don’t know when the Eritrean people who are pro-shabia are going to learn their grave mistake, this time is certainly your last breath and I can assure you that 100%.
one more thing … Ethiopia dont need help from any country including Eritrea (I dont know how and why Eritrea want to “help” us) anyway … we will do what we want on our OWN one DAY!
This article looks like a propaganda piece written by a hired gun! He does not even have his facts in order. He says that Assab has never been part of “traditional Eritrea”. What does traditional Eritrea mean? If he were a real writer, all he needed to do was a simple Google search and wola, he could have learned that the entity we call Eritrea today started in Assab. The Italians started their colonization process in Assab. The Rest is history. As for Ethiopia regaining Assab by force, only those who refuse to learn from history would advocate for this. There is no way that part of a sovereign country’s port will be annexed by another and the owners will just tolerate it and give-up. As for encouraging the Afars to declare their indipendence, bring it on. There are more Afars in Ethiopia than in Eritrea and we shall see if they choose to remain under Ethiopia’s rule or decide to join their “independent” state of Afar!
Peace and reconciliation is the only way out. Eritrean & Ethiopians can benefit a lot by cooperating with each other, than by fighting against one another. For that to happen, we need to think long term. We need to have a vision that transcends time and current immotions. With mutual respect and genuine cooperation, we can make the boundary between us an imaginary line!
Peace to all who love it!!
ELIAS: this is nothing more than a follow-up of the confrance the CIA and the WOYANE has in Addis-Abeba aganist ERITREA/ETHIOPIA people. But, all is smashed before it start!. Like you said the WOYANE are at the losing end!!!. but we need to be smart to know the way the CIA set -up a war as well.There will be NO more war between ERITREA & ETHIOPIA people we the people have got it!!! our enemie is WOYANE we will work together to finsh them and sent them to hell.
These are the same “highly trained minds” that told us Eritrea would melt in three to six months if Woyane maintain the border locked, then when it did not, they extended their call to a year to three years, now all those seemingly accurate predictions with plausible scenarios at the time, while many of the one liners (educated analyzers) agreeing with the assessments failed, I no longer lend my perception to such diabolical refuse only deserving to the toilet discussion.
From 2000 to 2003 we were told Eritrea would fail tomorrow, and that tomorrow had grown to over two thousands moon lights. An AIDS patient would have loved to last two thousand moon lights in Africa. I have to admit that the Eritreans stand better in all measures, be it health or social cohesion to employment to standard of living, I mean why come out now when Woyane is looking at a dark wall? attempting to lift Woyanes’ spirit at badmouthing or reminding Eritreans the same failed analysis with the same guys making them is another failure?
Well, I am glad to see such toddler talking gibberish, keep’em comin’, because it can only confirm to many what they know is better than the “highly learned armchair pencil pushing pundits in the US.” Let me give some credit here, so I do not want to look like I am here only to bash the author, hes got many things right, such as the names of the countries sharing borders, the names of presidents and the natural wealth of the region, which is something we all know. Other than that, I would say don’t even spend reading through the whole thing, specially if you have been reading many of the analysis from the previous years, and they all turned out to be false, well this no different its down right wrong.
It would have given me meaning had I not been exposed past flawed analysis, thanks to these same “highly educated pundits,” I am better informed than many of these “best minds.” No wonder America in decline, no wonder the American mind is no longer the most illuminating mind anymore. Either I have gotten smarter over the years thanks to the many lies, or the American mind has began it’s descend to a soft landing.
There we go again, another Western “expert” who writes about the the Horn of Africa, as if the citizens demand for freedom, democracy and justice are not as imprtant and what matters most is that the land is full of resouces, gold, oil and now the “cash cow or camel” is natural gas. His conclusion, indirectly, is that the Ethiopian people demand for democracy, freedom and justice is not vital & the two opposition forces meeting secretly with TPLF proofs that point.
Putting everthing else aside, his “expose” of the OLF & ONLF participating in secret talks with TPLF, if true, may be a bit astonishing, considering that the general mood, after “99.6% victory”, is for the unity of all the oppositions against the TPLF tugs to bring an end to this evil system.
Granted that every one has a right to look for alternative ways of bringing justice, working with all the opposition forces for unity is & appears to be much more progressive than dealing with proponents of the ethinc divisons par excellence system. For the record, if what is happening in Ethiopia is any indication, there will be no room for any other ethnic group, majority or minority, to live happily ever after.
The Tplf®Effort empire will continue to implement what ever they had planned for, and oh BOY! they can not sleep well until the loot reaches their overseas accounts, especially now that the news of the natural gas potential “wealth” is leaking out to the world!
The point is that foreign experts continue to underestimate the desire of the citizens of Ethiopia for equality and good governance and suggest that what is necessary is to work with TPLF so that they can have easy access to natural gas!
To that end, these experts attempt to link with other countries or other geo-political actors, Egypt, Iran, Eritera, etc to make their story sound “crediable”, to no avail.
Be as it may, what are we suppossed to do when we are told, again & again, that whatever we do is not important and especially who and for what purpose the new “wealth”will be used makes no sense to them?
The bottom line is, oil, gold & natural gas are necessary for development, if only the resources are controlled by the people and for the people. More than that the fate our nation can also is determined by the type of government we choose to have or be governed by.
In our opinion, our nation, the citizens of Ethiopia, are bigger and more righteous than its underground resources. Besides other natural rights, Ethiopians also deserve a government elected freely by its citizens; have the right to replace/term limit any leader (government) after 4 to 8 years of services, which includes, at minimum, providing services such as basic education, healthcare, shelter/housing….even building of natural parks to expand our fauna & flora, why not!
Fellow Ethiopians we must unite & coordinate our effort to provide our citizens what the world already has, democracy and basic civil rights and freedom to elect our leaders, the freedom to associate…etc.
We are afraid that the current system and the current leader(s), no matter how much “natural gas” there is, will only continue to enrich the TPLF & Co & a few supporters at the expense of the majority of the citizens.
United we stand divied we fall!
God Bless Ethiopia & protect her citizens.
As far as i can read from this article,one of the major factors for the success of the so called lib.fronts, Shabia, woyane,..,was the unwevering support of foreign countries:Egypt sits on the front row.
Thier objectives:
1)Distroying the only viable black African Navy on the east coast of Africa, the Ethiopian Navy, and leaving the Red Sea to Egyptians and other Arabs.
2)Destroying the strongest Army, the Ethiopian defense Forces, using inside socalled fronts, so that Egypt doesnot have any worry.
3)After those distructions, keeping those fronts alive(shabia and woyane) as a proxy sothat no
come back for independent Nationalistic Ethiopia.
So i donot understand what Lij Elias talking about help from Eriterean government, they were in principle, created(got independence) as a proxy tiny state to deprive the bigger Ethiopia the control of the red sea.
About Woyanes enough is said, …
Dear Sirs,
There Are no secret talks between ONLF and the Wayane regime. The reality of the matter is that The Wayane are using bogus individuals who they claim are ONLF, in order to create a false sense of peace in the Ogaden and deceive both the Ethiopian people and the International community. So please do not fall for the lies of the Wayane regime and carry on their immoral propaganda along and become an unwitting accomplice to their heinous schemes.
Thanks
ONLF Foreign Bureau
እሰይ የምስራች ለሰፊው ህዝባችን:
በደቡብ አቅጣቻ ነበር ንብረታችን:
እንሆ ዛሬ ወጣ ፍጽም ነዳጃችን:
ችግሩ ይፈታል በብዙ ሀብታችን:
መቼ ተነካ ገና የመሬት ሀብታችን: ሰፊው ንብረታችን:: – ፍኖተ ሰላም
በጣም ያሳዝናል የቁራዎቹ ሴራ:
ተልከስክሶ ቀረ የድግሱ ሴራ:
እዩት ተመልከቱት የእግዚሃብሔርን ስራ:
ቁራውን ቀጥቅጦ በአንበሳው ሲሰራ:
እንዴት ያስደስታል የአምላካችን ሥራ:
እንዲህ ነው የእርሱ አዝመራ:
እሰይ የምስራች ቀረልን ቀብር:
ገባ ተግበስብሶ ከትኋኑ ገላ እየተንጠራራ:: –ፍኖተ ሰላም
በምስራቅ በምዕራብ በሰሜን በደቡብ:
ሁሉም እረጋ ሰላምሽ የሰላሳ ዓመቱ ደምወዝሽ:
እንኪ ይኸውልሽ ምህረትሽ:
ውሃ ነዳጅ ጨውም አለሽ ምን አጥተሽ ለኑሮሽ:
ሃይማኖትሽን አንድ አድርገሽ ታሸንፊያለሽ:
ሰብስበሽ መስዋዕት ታቀርቢያለሽ:
አይዞሽ ቤቱን ታጸጂያለሽ አስተካክለሽ:: –ፍኖተ ሰላም ወደፊትን በተመለከተ
Unless Ethiopians devote/commit at least 30% of their mind, time, money and other resources to their creator and ancestoral God (አምላክ) either through the church or through helping their fellow Ethiopians directly or both, the ወሬ and night club/cafe culture, and similarly, the Kaht (ጫት)/booth, sorcery (ጥንቆላ)/whorehouses (ሴተኛ አዳሪነት ) subcultures among many, not only the disasterous nightmare continues, but old enemies rebound and the farce comes into play.
Gregory R. Copley
Historian, author and strategic analyst — and onetime industrialist — Gregory R. Copley, 60, has for almost four decades worked at the highest levels with various governments around the world, advising on national security, intelligence, and national management issues.
Copley — who was made a Member of the Order of Australia in the Queen’s Birthday Honours List on June 11, 2007, for his contributions to strategic studies and philosophy — is the Editor-in-Chief and founder (in 1972) of the Defense & Foreign Affairs group of publications. He is founder (in 1982, with Dr Stefan T. Possony) and President of the International Strategic Studies Association (ISSA), the global non-governmental organization (NGO) for senior professional officials involved worldwide in the formulation of national and international strategic policy. And he was the founder, in 1999, of the Global Information System (GIS), an on-line, encrypted-access core strategic intelligence database and system for use by governments worldwide.
Privately, Mr Copley has worked at the highest levels with a number of governments in Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region to establish national capabilities in intelligence and strategic analysis.
In 2001, on a more public note, Gregory Copley was one of the founding directors of Australia’s new grand strategy research organization, the Future Directions Institute (FDI) (originally known as the Centre for International Strategic Analysis: CISA), in Perth, Western Australia. He remains actively involved with FDI, and is currently a Director of the organization and Chairman of its Research Committee.
As well, he has been extensively involved as an industrialist, owning several heavy engineering enterprises, a ship and yacht design company, and involved in airline development.
Mr Copley, who works in Washington, DC, retains his domicile in Australia, and is a sixth-generation Western Australian.
Apart from his open information and other activities, he has, since the early 1970s, been heavily involved in classified strategic analysis and operations for governments worldwide. This has involved the preparation of strategic philosophies for the restoration of elected government in certain countries, including input into the preparation of constitutions and electoral processes. It has, on numerous occasions, involved urgent work of a practical and political nature to halt existing conflicts or to prevent the imminent outbreak of hostilities.
Mr Copley, through Defense & Foreign Affairs, also undertakes special conferences and seminars for very senior political, government and defense personnel, often at cabinet or head-of-service level, on how to cope with current and projected strategic crises. He has personally also acted as an adviser on national planning issues to a number of governments at Head-of-Government or Cabinet level.
Gregory Copley has written over many years on the rôle of monarchies in governance.
He is the author of several thousand articles, open and classified papers, speeches and numerous books on strategic, defense, aviation, and other subjects, including two books of poetry. Mr Copley’s recent books include the annual 2,344-page Defense & Foreign Affairs Handbook, an encyclopedia with chapters on (in the current edition) 246 countries and territories worldwide. He has authored and edited 15 separate editions of this unique encyclopedia since 1976. The book has gone to senior government officials in more than 170 countries — including some 130 heads-of-state and heads-of-government — each year, and Judge Clark, when he was National Security Advisor to US President Ronald Reagan, said it was:
“indispensable to the running of the National Security Council”.
Gregory Copley wrote the strategic philosophy book, The Art of Victory, which was published as an Advance Draft edition for the Strategy2003 conference, and which will appear in 2006 in a more complete professional edition. A separate version of this book , as noted above, will be published as a consumer (trade) book in 2006 by Simon & Schuster in New York. Even the advance draft of the book, with cover notes by General Alexander M. Haig, Jr., the former US Secretary of State, drew considerable praise from a number of heads-of-state, and others. He also wrote the Defense & Foreign Affairs Handbook on Egypt, the first edition of which appeared in 1995. Another book by Copley — Ethiopia Reaches Her Hand Unto God: Imperial Ethiopia’s Unique Symbols and Structures of Power — appeared in 1998, as did a book which he co-wrote and edited, Managing the Era of Great Change. He also co-wrote and edited The Global Strategic Condition, published in 1999, and Conflict or Calm? Views of the Coming Decade, published in 2000.
One of Gregory Copley’s earliest books, Australians in the Air, was published by Rigby in 1973, and is still regarded as the definitive history of Australian aviation. Before that, when he was 18 and 19 years old, he ghosted the first drafts of the autobiography of noted Australian aviation pioneer, Sir Norman Brearley: Australian Aviator. He had also edited and written several editions of the Australian Aviation Yearbook in the 1960s, and founded and edited Aero aviation magazine, which was at that time the largest-selling aviation journal in Australia. He also established and ran, during the 1960s (until 1971), a Sydney-based 24-hour-a-day news-wire service providing worldwide news to Australian, New Zealand, British and other newspapers, radio and television, following an initial career as an award-winning defense and aviation journalist in Western Australia.
A small selection of significant analysis openly published in the Defense & Foreign Affairs publications included:
¨ Analysis and supporting intelligence in April 1972 as to how the Sadat Government would expel the Soviets from Egypt (contrary to official Western belief at the time). Proven correct within six months.
¨ Analysis in early 1973 as to how the demographic, economic and strategic trends would precipitate the break-up of the USSR by the early 1990s (with Stefan Possony).
¨ Reporting, in advance of Western government sources, the penetration of the Peruvian Government of Soviet arms sales, and the Peruvian, Argentinean and Bolivian plans for attacks on the Pinochet Government in Chile (1973-74).
¨ Analysis in 1973 on the prospect for a space-based, energy-derived weapons system to be used in an ABM (anti-ballistic missile) mode to suppress a Soviet first strike capability (by Dr Stefan Possony). Information noted by then ex-Governor of California Ronald Reagan who later developed it as the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI).
¨ Analysis during the mid-1970s to the effect that the USSR was devoting some 13 to 14 percent of GNP to defense. Official CIA view at the time was around four percent. Subsequent red team/blue team exercises confirmed our analysis.
¨ Detailed analysis, supported by original intelligence, in 1974-75 to the effect that radical, revolutionary activity would lead to the destabilization of Iran and the overthrow of the Shah.
¨ Detailed projections in the late 1980s as to the “end of the age of ideology” and the withdrawal — in the face of the collapse of ideological communism and the Soviet economy — of the USSR from Eastern Europe, preparatory to the transformation of the Soviet Union. At this stage, no-one else was making such projections.
¨ Detailed analysis in early 1990 as to how and why Iraq would attempt to emerge as a major regional “great power” and would be forced to expand its access to the Persian Gulf in an attempt to outmaneuver. Subsequent analysis and reports in June-July 1990 specified and forecast accurately how Iraq would invade Kuwait (when, how and why). No other intelligence service matched the accuracy or timeliness of this prediction which, had it been acted on by the major powers, would have prevented the invasion of Kuwait and the subsequent Gulf War.
¨ First major reporting on the Libyan-Iraqi deployments in the Sudan before and during the Gulf War, and their strategic impact on the Red Sea environment.
¨ First major reporting in the 1980s and early 1990s on India’s emergence as a new great power.
¨ First “clean sheet” analysis during the 1970s and 1980s of Australia’s strategic environment, leading to The Dibb Report, and the subsequent transformation of Australian defense planning base by (then) Minister of Defence Kim Beazley.
¨ Significantly different analysis than was popular on the strategic origins and conduct of the conflict(s) in the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s and the emergence of a new anti-Western power bloc centered around the People’s Republic of China (PRC), North Korea (DPRK), Iran, Sudan and other states.
¨ Unique analysis during 1996 of the impending energy crisis in Asia, and the PRC’s strategic response to this, coupled with its Islamist insurgency problem.
¨ Unique analysis from the early 1990s to current period on radical Islamist (political, as opposed to Islamic/religious) strategic activities including terrorism. And so on: there were many more pioneering works of analysis in the journal, which continues serving the international community.
¨ Unique and detailed intelligence and analysis on the change of leadership in Pakistan in 1999, and the subsequent Indo-Pakistani conflict.
¨ Early and detailed analysis during the 1990s until 2003 on the potential for energy supplies from West Africa and Libya.
¨ First revelations, in 2002, of the illness of Libyan leader Mu’ammar al-Qadhafi, and ongoing revelations in the 1999-2003 timeframe of the Libyan weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs, and the attempted coup against Qadhafi in December 2002.
¨ Detailed intelligence from the early 1990s to 2003 on the North Korean WMD programs (nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles) and their links with Iranian and Iraqi WMD programs. … And so on.
Gregory Copley won the 1990 Award of The Asian Council, of Japan, for his work in strategic policy. He was at that time the only non-Asian to have won this Award.
He has chaired dozens of conferences and seminars on strategic issues, and spoken at these and many other international conferences on defense and strategic issues around the world. He has lectured extensively on psychological strategy, grand strategy and intelligence matters to a wide range of professional audiences in classified and unclassified sessions in various countries [notably the US, UK, Germany, Singapore, Sweden, Taiwan, South Africa, Egypt, India, Pakistan, Japan, Nigeria, etc.]. He lectured on several occasions to the US Air Force School of Special Operations, for example. Mr Copley has been invited on several occasions to testify before the US Congress and notably provided key testimony to the US House of Representatives Hearings on Nigeria, relating to that country’s constitutional crisis and human rights, in August 1993. He also authored a study, Nigeria’s New Government, when President Ibrahim Babangida came to office. In 1998, he undertook two major briefings to the US Congress (including one to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee) on changes in Africa.
Gregory Copley became concerned with the decline of shipbuilding in Britain during the 1970s and 1980s, and felt that the decline had, by the 1980s, begun to eat into the core capability of Britain’s maritime capabilities. As a result, he set out, in 1987, to save from closure the Clyde, Scotland, shipbuilding facility, Ailsa Shipbuilders. The Ailsa company, which became the Ailsa-Perth Group, was founded by the Marquess of Ailsa in 1885. The Scottish Ailsa-Perth shipyard was sold in February-March 1996, once it became clear that the company — and the craft of shipbuilding in Britain — was once again secure. In 1994, his Ailsa-Perth Group acquired the former Royal Docks at Chatham, near London, and Ailsa-Perth Marine Ltd. — of which Mr Copley was Chairman — was actively involved in the repair, refit and construction of ships and large yachts. The Chatham Royal Docks, founded in 1554, was the site of the construction of Viscount Horatio Nelson’s flagship, HMS Victory. Mr Copley sold up his shipbuilding interests in 1997 to focus more completely on his international relations activities.
Before this, however, Mr Copley acquired the then-120-year-old G. L. Watson & Co. Ltd. yacht and ship design bureau in 1994. G. L. Watson & Co. has designed more head-of-state and Royal yachts than any other firm in the world, and has also designed four America’s Cup racing yachts.
Among his Scottish activities, Gregory Copley served for a period, under Sir Ian MacGregor, as Vice-Chairman of Highland Express, the Scottish national airline, at the request of the (then) UK Secretary of State for Defence, George Younger (now Viscount Younger, Chairman of Royal Bank of Scotland).
In September 1997, at the Strategy’97 conference chaired by Copley in Washington DC, former US Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig, Jr., praising Copley as a strategic philosopher and close colleague of Stefan Possony, said that Gregory Copley had
“… made a significant contribution in helping to bring about an end to the Cold War”.
Earlier, in his book, The Conservative Decade: Emerging Leaders of the 1980s, author James C. Roberts had said of Copley:
“Gregory R. Copley, at age 33, is already the potentate of his own mini-empire of foreign affairs concerns. A native of Australia … Copley manages a thriving Washington-based enterprise … He does much of the writing himself, displaying a literate style and an encyclopedic knowledge of international and strategic realities as he threads his way through matters as diverse as the coup in Afghanistan and the RAF’s newest fighter plane. Surveying Copley’s enterprises, it can be said that his activities are as far-flung as those of the US State Department and that his grasp of world realities is vastly superior.”
For his work in the build-up to the 1991 Gulf War, when tensions were quietly running high between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Great Britain, a Saudi Cabinet Minister, Bandar Bin Abdallah Bin Abdulrahman Al Saud, said in a letter to Copley:
“In a very critical moment, your impressive efforts contributed positively to clear major problems and set the record straight between both countries.”
Lt.-Gen. Aliyu Mohammed, former Chief of Staff the Nigerian Army and later National Security Advisor to President Olusegun Obasanjo, said of Copley and Defense & Foreign Affairs:
“Defense & Foreign Affairs publications and conferences have always been unique in their assiduous and impartial attention to African strategic affairs, so often ignored or undervalued in international publications. During my tenure as National Security Advisor to the President of Nigeria and as Chief of Staff, Nigerian Army, Defense & Foreign Affairs pointed out — as no other publication did — the significant and ongoing strength of Nigerian (and African) contributions to World peacekeeping efforts … It is important that Defense & Foreign Affairs continue to provide its impartial analysis and unique grand strategy perspective for the coming generation of military and political leaders.”
The late US Congressman Sonny Bono, a Member of the House of Representatives National Security Committee and the Subcommittees on Military Procurement & Military Personnel, noted in 1997:
“Both you and Dr Stefan Possony, your co-founder [of Defense & Foreign Affairs] have been no strangers to Capitol Hill, and your writings and occasional testimony have been greatly appreciated.”
Australian Federal Opposition Leader and former Minister of Defence Kim Beazley, MP, said, on the 25th anniversary of Defense & Foreign Affairs in 1997:
“… Your publication has been an invaluable source of intelligence. The thoroughness with which you have reported the affairs of states which do not necessarily ring bells in day-to-day media headlines in Europe and US has been a valuable policy tool. … Keep up your good work over the next 25 years.”
On June 9, 2004, in introducing Copley to a number of Central Asian leaders, Kyrgyz Republic President Dr Askar Akaev said: “In Washington, there is Brzezinski, Kissinger, and Copley.” Dr Akaev later paid additional tribute to Copley in his book on global strategic options.
Gregory Copley serves as a visiting professor and lecturer at a number of institutions around the world, currently including the European Cultural Centre, of Delphi, Greece; the University of Belgrade; Intercollege, in Nicosia, Cyprus; and the University of Western Australia. He lectures at other universities from time to time,.
Mr Copley is married to Pamela von Gruber, a US citizen, who is also a Director of the International Strategic Studies Association, Publisher of the Defense & Foreign Affairs publications, and a Director of GIS.
Publications:
Mr Copley has authored several thousand articles, papers, lectures and reports, mainly on strategic and defense issues, but also on yachting and other marine topics, published over a period of more than 40 years.
Books include:
The Art of Victory: How Nations Can Survive and Individuals Succeed in the Coming Global Transformation. New York, 2006: Simon & Schuster’s Threshold Editions.
The Art of Victory: Fulfilling Mankind’s Potential. Limited edition for conference use Nov. 2003.
The Defense & Foreign Affairs Handbook. 16 editions, 1976-2006 (Ed.).
Ethiopia Reaches Her Hand Unto God: Imperial Ethiopia’s Unique Symbols, Structures and Rôle in the Modern World. Washington, DC, 1998: the International Strategic Studies Assn.
The Defense & Foreign Affairs Handbook on Egypt. 1995.
The Global Strategic Condition. 1998 (Ed.).
Managing the Era of Great Change. 1997 (Ed.).
The Era of Great Change. 1990 (Ed.).
Strategy’90. 1990 (Ed.)
Strategy’85. 1985 (Ed.).
Nigeria’s New Government. 1985.
Strategy’84. 1984 (Ed.).
Defense’83. 1983 (Ed.).
Lessons of the South Atlantic War. 1982 (Ed.).
Force Modernization. Budget Versus Threat: Building a Defense Capability in the Face of Rising Costs. 1986 (Ed.).
Australians in the Air. Adelaide, 1974: Rigby Ltd.
Australian Aviation Yearbook, various editions in the 1960s. etc.
Awards and Decorations
Gregory Copley was honored for his work in strategic studies with being made a Member of the Order of Australia in the Queen’s Birthday Honours List on June 11, 2007. He also has been recognized with numerous presentations, orders, decorations and medals from governments and professional bodies in Asia (including the Asia Council Award, in Tokyo) and Africa, in particular. He has also, in the course of his duty, been granted honorary commissions in two armed forces.
God is too kind that he tolerates even the most extreeme ingnorance.
I wonder how long will woyane continue talking about the ogaden basin?. We thought them a lesson at abole, with their south-east-asian-friend… If not enough, we are ready to repeat.
People,
Let us not criticize prematurely when Western writes about Ethiopia. Even though they don’t listen about Weyane as being anti Ethiopian, for example, this author did write about supporting Ethiopia no matter what and even if we don’t disagree about his views.
That being said, this article may have something to do with Weyane recently approving Australian Embassy in Ethiopia. I am surprised that Australia did not have office in Ethiopia.
The other point is that, now that West and Arabs (Egypt, etc) are aware of Ethiopia’s resources that is going to be implemented the next 5 years, of course, Westerners and Arabs are now storming around Ethiopia. So the recent decision done by Weyane which are, cutting educational opportunities for Ethiopians and devaluing currency I believe is directly associated with the natural resource. IMF, World Bank and Egypt are now collaborating with Meles and Co. to weaken Ethiopia’s society before the 5 years because as someone explained above, development and natural resources and good governance is what makes a nation advanced. Lack of governance is made sure by Weyane and Co. so there is no problem on that side. By weakening Ethiopia’s society is the only way to grab the natural resources and control it so that Ethiopia will not develop. Meles is now starting the deconstruction of our society through lack of education, currency devaluation. This will devastate countries for example this happened in Nigeria and Haiti. There is probably more Weyane’s policy of deconstruaction to come. That being said, we should not blame outsiders as a whole. It is our responsibility to protect our nation by any means through uniting. Ethiopia’s deconstruction will be very easy in fact because there exists Liberation Fronts, Eritrea and of course Egypt. The quesiton is what are we going to do about it?
Let god of Abraham protect Ethiopia form her enemies.
I do have a profound respect for Gregory Copley. Some of the issues he talked about are long standing facts and no one doubts this. However, I suspect that some of the information is Woyanes propoganda to shift attention and distract the opposition. I think he is provided this article by Meles. Even the language and the style of writing in this article are totally different from Gregory Copley regular reports and commentaries posted on Oilprice.com.
The comment posted by “Eritrean pride” must be written by Isase himself or one of his loyal disciples while “seyfu” looks like aboy sehibat’s comment in Tegrigna. Any way I can see lots of cadre on this issue. I felt as if I was in the middle of woyane and shabia fighting. Without no reason I do not think you guys got nerves; the letter must reveled some of your demons. At the end of the day only one of you guys could live or win and the end of the day is now.
What ever it is both of you guys are dirty. Look at your hand it’s faulty because of the innocent victims blood you shad for decades. Both of you groups do not try to tell us about who you are rather you should ask people to tell you about who you are.
My message to all the victims of the region is to override the traps of the perpetrators.
is he on crack or he must have been drinking 211. weyane is going down. weyane don’t even have support in tigray.
http://demhit.com/news/2003septemper2/wetehaderawi_awet.pdf
The article by Mr. Copley is relatively informative, well articulated and based on the fact on the ground even if it doesn’t mention the prons and cons of the current ethiopian govt.
When you see the current development of forgein ethiopian historical enemies conspiracy they are closing in to chock my beloved country, as Copley stated it ethiopia looks like loosing the somali land ports.On top of that in the unprecented way Djibouti banned the ethiopian air lines flight four couple of weeks and the deliberate delay, over charging and sabotaging of ethiopian imports through Djibouti ports and in the future probable ban of ethiopians using the port, this all reflexing the muscle by Djibouti and the mediation role by Quatar between Djibouti and Eritrea to isolate ethiopia and other factors is the sign of forgein enemies are working hard day and night.
The ethiopian government have to act soon before loosing it all that the nathural right, ownership and acquiring of Asseb port. It doesn’t matter the international law and regulation as long as we have strong military.
PM Melesse have to change your old fashioned mentality which is supporting eritrian ownership of Asseb, don’t repeat historical mistakes, eritrians have enough water territory and ports like Adolis and others for three million people, forget about advocating eritrian sovergnity you are ethiopian and you are the prime minister of the country.
Port Asseb is belongs to ethiopia by hook or crook port Asseb will serve ethiopians.
Eritrean pride
I can understand your anxiety that you know very well about the mighty ethiopian army power in the last border war that your spokesman were calling the United nation and international community to interfer and stop the advacement of ethiopian heros towards Asmera.You said “justify if a war was to break out”.
Almaz
How arrogant, ignorance and old fashioned mentallity you have, you think eritreans are better than ethiopians this is the sickness most old eritreans are suffering from and you are a pure reflection of the old grand dad era politician who are ruling eritrea blinded by superior complex, you guys have to retire and hand over for the new generation of eritreans, please.You said “Eritreans stand better in all measure”, laughable and “I would say don’t even spend reading through the whole thing”, again laughable.
PORT ASSEB IS BELONGS TO ETHIOPIA
Here the Amharic proverb: “Girgir le leba yamechal” is the case. And, the so called article, is nothing more than an effort by EPRDF to promote perpetual chaos in an effort to prolong its hold on power. The EPRDF would love to launch a war with Eritrea, however, its well aware that the consequences of such an act will lead to its eminent demise. On the one hand the regime must rely on war and rumors of war to keep the peoples of the region on edge. The EPRDF has lost many of its most experienced fighters during its war against Eritrea (1998-2000) and despite the recent sanctions against Eritrea, they are well prepared for anything the EPRDF may throw at them.
Elias, I must say that you’re not only a man of vision and great love for your country, but also, rational person who has understood that territorial expansionism will only lead to continued death, poverty and misery of Ethiopians.
tazabit i never saw a dami person like you,say eritrean govenment you can call ethiopian gvernement woyane if you want but do not call shaebia, as negative if yoy know shaebia means people.
This is the most stupid article written for dummies. The writer shades crocodile tears. He predicts Ethiopia may retake Red Sea and threaten Egypt. Nonsense! The writer,Western appears sympathetic to Ethiopian cause. Who broke Ethiopia up into pieces? Who first recognized Eritrea as an independent state? Who promoted ONLF and OLF to this stage?
TPLF, as mercenary group is a main destabilizing force in the region. It was funded and politically shielded to achieve the short term objective of Westerners. That objective is creation of many, small, nonviable states in the Horn. Once that is achieved, ” Oil rich” Ogaden will be a new Kuwait from the the ash of Ethiopian empire.
If one wants an explanation for the word obsession, one need read what some people wrote here about Assab. The funny thing is, when Assab was in control of the ethiopians, no port developement was ever done, it´s supposed good for the ethiopian economy was never visible because it was never used as intended. Now when the rightful owners (eritreans) control it, a lot of people are shedding crocodile tears. The interesting thing though is that those who´re advocating for Assab to be invaded will never themselves stand in the front lines and fight. Why? Because there´re a lot of non tigrayan and non amhara poor people in Ethiopia who´ll forcibly be conscripted to give their lives for their impossible dream to come true. Hitlers in miniature.
Ane,
You stated that Eritrea is rightful owners of Assab.
What do you mean by “rightful owener”?
Who does give right to ownership?
This is where the source of 3rd world blood-shed comes from. One time, Assab, or Eritrea was recognized as part of Ethiopia and a lot of blood-shed, destructions followed. Now, Eritrea is independent and Assab doesn’t belong to Ethiopia any more. How sure are you that the same people who recognized Eritreaas independent, will not recognize Assab as part of Ethiopia and cycle of blood-shed not continue forever?
Many undermine, the complexity of our problems. Each of us should understand this complex issue and restrain ourselves from exacerbating tension and from being catalyst for endless war among brothers/sisters.
#32 you can teach ignorant when the person admits he/she are ignorant but you can not teach Stupid. so pleas check Ur self 1st.
All are cowards,
-Mengistu’s Mantra was “Ethiopia Tikdem” while wiping out the most brilliant Ethiopian sons and daughters to protect his power.
– Esias fought for ” freedom and dignity of Erirea/Eritreans for 30 years. To safe guard his own power,, he got muted when TPLF occupy his land by force.He let the dignity be robbed in broad daylight.
– Melse is seen as strong for ruling ethnically fractured country. Melese created the most unstable, fragile country to suit his rule.
To me, all are power hungry cowards.
Truth,
the only people I know who made eritrean independence a reality, whether it´s recognized by others or not, are the eritrean people. First by shedding blood, sweat and tears for 30 years and then by voting in the internationally recognized and observed referendum, by overwhelmingly voting for independence. What part of this is not clear?
Anne #11
You were saying that, quote.”… the claim that Egypt uses Eritrea as proxy is nonsense. Eritrea is no “errand boy” for no country. Never was and never will be. …”
I think you are naive or far away from the truth. Every small, weak and poor nations are always an errand boys for the mighty and the strongest ones or atleast for thier survival. Your “frredom fighter” now an arrogant dictator called himself a “president” was an errand boy to many arab countries while he was in exile. He would do it if he could but he begs the Arabs and running like a mad dog to get money. Now those countries are turned thier back on him either to please thier western masters or may be they get frustrated by what he does during his visit of Israel right after “independence” while he siphoned thier money to support his gorella warfare against Ethiopia. Afewerki is swiming agianst the current or not lucky enough to lick thier boots like meles, the spoiled brats of America and now the master is out smarted by his follower and bent to destroy him using somalia, Egypt and Iran. So to get where you want or to fulfill one’s interest you have to be an errand boy to those who facilitate your dream. Do not brag that things like …never was and never will be nonsense. Whether you admit it or not you will be used as a proxy to materalize your long term interest period!
Ane
Don’t worry about referndum, overwhelming voting and recognition. eritrea is diplomatcally isolated state a country under UN sanction no one stand for you when the D day comes.
As i stated it above the only solution is the mighty military power you know it very well, in this case ethiopian army is way superior than your rag tag army who forcefully reicruted by national military service doesn’t have the the will to fight and prepared to surrender to ethiopian army and send to USA.
I just want remind you realites that military power is deciceve factor than your points.your friends’ Tamil illans,
cyprus, Falkland islands, Northern Ireland and so on.
Prepare for that day the nathural ownership of port asseb is belongs to ethiopians.
There is an amharic saying “MOTAME BEHEYEWOTEM AHEYA YEGEBE NAT”.
PORT ASSEB IS BELONGS TO ETHIOPIANS
Ane,
I beg to disagree with your assertion about the will of Eritrean for independence. Why was Eritrea in relative peace during Haileslase era?
To me, the Eritreans youth were agitated in the name of freedom to fight Soviet sponsored Junta in the Horn. The colonial Era division of Ethiopians was broken by our wise forefathers/mothers. Unfortunately, some people like you are still the victim of our ugly past.
I have never seen some one so ignorant and yet calling himself an expert. This Copley has no idea of what is going on in the Horn of Africa. In this article he basically manifested his absolutely lack of knowledge of the region.
For instance, he said that the new president of Somaliland is pan-Somalist and extremist man. Where did Copley get that from?
I am A Somalilander and I have all the time in the world for our new president.
The worrying thing is that Western Ploticans rely on people like Copley. That is why the invasion of Iraq proved to be a big mistake and the weapons of mass distruction were never found.
Without not goiung on about this ignorant man, I suggest that we, people from the Horn of Africa, should ignore what peole like this man write and say about us.
Thank you.
Ahmed