ADDIS ABABA (IPS) – Criticised as system of dividing and ruling people according to their ethnic groups, Ethiopia’s federalism has become a bone of contention.
A recent international report warns if this system, and the resultant lack of governance, continues the entire Horn of Africa could be destabilised.
The report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) warned that unless the ruling coalition, Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), Tigrean People’s Liberation Front improved governance it would risk ethnic conflict from the over 70 different ethnic groups in the country during the 2010 federal and regional elections. The ICG also cautioned the entire Horn of Africa could be destabilised because of the expected conflict.
But Ethiopia’s Prime Minster ethnic warlord, who has been in power for 18 years and who is expected to stand for another five-year term of office, has dismissed the report. “The report is not worth the price of writing it up,” Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said.
But not everyone is in agreement. The opposition have denounced the system of ethnic federalism as a way for the EPRDF to stay in power, while academics have said that it is a system that remains impossible to implement.
The opposition has agreed with the report saying that there is a high probability for ethnic conflict in the upcoming elections.
“The system (of rule) has not satisfied neither those who supported federalism nor the ones who opposed it,” Dr. Merera Gudina told IPS. Merera is Co-Chair of the opposition Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC). The Oromo ethnic group is the country’s largest. “This unfair and undemocratic system dominated by one (Tigrayan) ethnic group (the strong base of the ruling part) will lead to crisis. That is why I think ICG’s report is prepared with superior understanding of the realities in Ethiopia.”
Ethnic federalism is a system of administration where regional states – formed based on geographical settlement of ethnic groups – share part of their power with a central government to run their collective affairs on their behalf.
The EPRDF introduced the federal administrative system over 14 years ago when it established the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. This was three years after it ousted the Derg, the dictatorial communist government, concluding 17 years of civil war.
The report stated that despite the structure crafted for decentralised administration, because the EPRDF has power in all the regions, it controls all matters. In effect the regions do not have actual power and they don’t actually govern themselves, the report noted.
The ICG alleges the system has increased ethnic polarisation in Ethiopia. “Ethnic federalism has not dampened conflict, but rather increased competition among groups fighting for land, natural resources, administrative boundaries and government budgets”, says François Grignon, ICG’s Africa Program Director. “This concept has powerfully promoted ethnic self-awareness among all groups and failed to accommodate grievances,” he said.
The report stated that while ethnic federalism was initially greeted with enthusiasm by Ethiopia’s people, it has failed to resolve the country’s national issue – “a democratic country free of any dominance by any ethnic group”.
“Instead it generates greater conflict at local level, as ethnic groups fight over political influence. That policy has empowered some groups but has not been accompanied by dialogue and reconciliation on grievances over past misdeeds,” the report stated.
But government denies this and believes that Ethiopia is now a more united state than before. It boasts that previously marginalised communities now enjoy self governance and control their own resources and have better access to public services.
According to the new constitution the country is divided into 9 regions based on the geographical settlement of ethnic groups, and two chartered administrations (Addis Ababa city and Diredawa town) both with mixed-ethnic population.
The Federal Government is responsible for national defence, foreign relations, and general policies of common interests and benefits. Regional States are vested with legislative, executive and judicial powers for self-administration.
However, the regional governments have serious constraints from lack of adequate financial and human resources to effectively carry out the management of decentralised administration and development.
Some opposition politicians criticise the system as a “divide-and-rule” approach the EPRDF devised to ensure it will not be challenged.
“The only thing EPRDF’s federalism has achieved is that it helped the party hold tight grip on the people through divide-and-rule system,” said Merera, who is also a professor of Political Science and International Relations at the Addis Ababa University. Though Merera says OFC supports genuine federalism, he strongly opposes Ethiopia’s current system saying it is neither negotiated by the people nor does it have a democratic content.
“It is a system EPRDF redrew Ethiopia the way it wanted simply because it came to power,” he told IPS.
Political analysts including the current Dean and professor at the Addis Ababa University, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Dr. Yaekob Arsano, critically opposed the federal system when it was tabled for discussion almost 16 years ago.
“Ethnic federalism is neither politically correct nor technically possible to apply in Ethiopia’s context,” he had said.
A core argument against ethnic federalism is that considering the intermarriage among most ethnic groups in Ethiopia, “it is impossible to clearly define and demarcate regional boundaries”.
The ICG report concluded that economic growth and the expansion of public services are to the EPRDF’s credit, but they increasingly fail to translate into popular support from the people.
As opposition parties gear up to challenge the EPRDF in the June 2010 elections, many fear a violent crackdown by the government, similar to the intimidation, harassment and violence experienced by opposition parties during the 2005 elections, ICG alleges.
In the aftermath of the May 2005 elections, a wave of violence between opposition protestors and government forces erupted and more than 200 people were killed. Following that some opposition accused the government of harassing some people for belonging to a certain ethnic group.
But Degife Bula, Speaker of Ethiopia’s House of Federation has said the “report has not considered the actual context in Ethiopia at all”.
The House of Federation is the highest institution on matters of the federal system and was formed with at least one representative from each ethnic group.
But Degife blames the ICG for not seeking comments from the House of Federation while compiling a report on issue that is completely under its jurisdiction. “They [ICG] have prepared the report with information collected from researches of smaller scopes by such institutions like NGOs and media organisations here and there,” Degife told IPS.
The House of Federation is formally mandated to deal with nationality issues and federal-regional relations, but it meets only twice a year and lacks the authority to effectively mitigate ethnic conflicts; it has been reluctant to approve referendums to decide the status of disputed localities, according to ICG.
In conclusion ICG suggests that the current federal system may need to be modified, but it is unlikely Ethiopia can return to the old unitary state system.
“The international community has ignored or downplayed the problems. Some donors consider food security more important than democracy in Ethiopia. In view of the mounting ethnic awareness and political tensions created by the regionalisation policy, however, external actors would be well advised to take the governance problems more seriously and adopt a more principled position towards the Meles Zenawi government,” ICG says.
Against the “silence” of the world and regional organizations that offer aid “without reacting to the suffering and human rights violations of the rights of local populations” the National front for the liberation of Ogaden (ONLF) has threatened to resume attacks against the facilities of international oil majors in the area.
Although presumably they would be the ones to cause the damage, the ONLF is hedging suggesting that it “will not be responsible for the collateral damage caused to existing infrastructure” in a communiqué issued by the movement which reminds all concerned that “Ogaden is a war zone where no business activities should be carried out”.
The ONLF uses harsh tones toward the UN and the Security Council in particular, which is described as “lackadaisical is looking after the local people’s right to self determination” and “deaf” toward calls to defend the rights violated by the Ethiopian government tribal junta in Ethiopia. – MISNA
ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) – Ethiopia’s prime minister tribal junta leader has denounced a think-tank report that warned his country could descend into ethnic violence ahead of its first national election since a 2005 poll triggered deadly street clashes.
In a study last week, the International Crisis Group (ICG) said there was a risk of conflict ahead of the ballot scheduled for May 2010 because of rising ethnic tensions and dissent.
Prime Minister Meles Zenawi rejected that.
“Some people have too many billions of dollars to spend and they feel that dictating how developing countries manage their affairs is their God-given right,” he said late on Wednesday.
“We have only contempt for the ICG.”
The Horn of Africa nation’s last elections four years ago were touted as its first truly democratic polls. But they ended in protests and bloodshed after the government declared victory and the opposition accused it of rigging the result.
Police and soldiers killed about 200 people who had taken to the streets to demonstrate. At the time, Meles accused the protesters of trying to topple his government.
CRITICISES OPPOSITION
Rights groups regularly accuse Ethiopia’s government of cracking down on political opponents. One party leader has been jailed and several former and serving military officers have been charged in recent months with plotting a coup.
In a news conference on Wednesday, Meles defended the country’s system of “ethnic federalism”, under which major ethnic groups control the regions where they are the majority. He said it had saved the giant nation from splitting apart.
“The country was on the brink of total disintegration,” the prime minister said. “Every analyst worth his salt was suggesting that Ethiopia will go the way of Yugoslavia or the Soviet Union. What we have now is a going-concern.”
Meles has started talks with the opposition about a code of conduct for the next poll. But the main coalition of opposition parties said last week it had walked out of the discussions and that its potential candidates were being jailed and harassed.
“Those parties that apparently are concerned about harassment are not concerned enough to participate in the devising of a code of conduct that is designed to put an end to it, if it exists, or to prevent it if it doesn’t,” Meles said.
“The intent of these individuals is to discredit the election process from day one, not to participate in it.”
BERLIN (AFP) — Ethiopian world record holder Haile Gebreselassie said on Friday that he is aiming for Olympic gold in the marathon at the 2012 London Games.
“I have two plans,” said the 36-year-old. “Breaking the world record is one thing and to win the Olympic title (in 2012). This is a very important thing for me. I have no other distance, only marathon.”
The Ethiopian missed out on both the marathon at the Beijing Olympics last summer, because of his fears over pollution in the Chinese capital, and the race in last month’s World Athletics Championships in Berlin, in order to rest up for Saturday’s Berlin marathon.
The two-time Olympic champion at 10,000m — in 1996 and 2000 — is eyeing a fourth consecutive victory in the race around the streets of the German capital and insisted he was not overly concerned by his rivals, namely Duncan Kibet of Kenya.
“I am fit, I cannot say anything on what will happen during the race or if a new world record will be set,” he said of the marathon that ends under the Brandenburg Gate.
“I don’t think just about Kibet. Others competitors are one thing in marathon, but the most important thing is the distance.”
Kibet has set a season’s best of 2hr 04min 27sec, just off Gebreselassie’s own world record of 2:03:59 set at last year’s Berlin marathon.
(SpeedEndurance.com) — Why on earth would Kenenisa Bekele and Usain Bolt race each other at 600 meters is beyond me. If anything, it would help promote Bekele as he is not a household name as compared to Bolt, despite his amazing accomplishments. If you don’t believe me, just go to your office and ask around if they know who “Usain Bolt” is. Then ask about Kenenisa Bekele..
To me, Kenenisa Bekele is the modern day Miruts Yifter “the Shifter”. (Google his name if you do not recognize it)
But let’s look at the facts.
Bekele is known to finish the last lap in 52 or 53 seconds in a 5K or 10K race. Bekele even recorded a 200 m segment during the last lap in 24 seconds, so a sub 50 400m PB is possible once he got his legs going.
One thing is certain… Kenenisa Bekele’s PB for 1500m is 3:32.35 (2007), and Usain Bolt’s PB is 19.19 for 200m (2009) and 45.28 (2007) as a 20 year old when main focus was the 200 that year.
I believe these 2 great runners can run as low as 1:16 (don’t worry, the WR is 1:12)
Of course, these are just my theoretical numbers on how they could split:
Kenenisa Bekele: 52 + 24 = 76 (1:16)
Usain Bolt: 24 + 25 + 26 = 75 (1:15)
I once ran a 600m indoor PB of 1:21.91 with splits of 25, 26, 30 when my PB was 23 and 50 indoors for the 200/400 respectively.
According to the study High-speed running performance: a new approach to assessment and prediction by Matthew Bundle, Reed Hoyt, and Peter Weyand, 80 seconds is the approximately the intersection where sprinters and distance runners meet based on a model to predict your performance based on speed reserve.
Speed Reserve, or Anaerobic Speed Reserve (ASR), is simply the difference between your maximum speed and your maximum aerobic speed.
The concept is simple:
The faster your top end speed, the faster your sub-max speed (or aerobic speed).
In the study, they were trying to find a correlation between your maximum speed and your maximum aerobic speed.
The basis of the study was to come up with a theoretical framework in predicting performance based on speed reserve using 2 simple tests of 3 second (maximum speed) and up to 240 second run (maximum aerobic speed). In summary, without reading the entire article and falling asleep, or requiring a Masters degree in Statistics, the authors came up with a mathematical model to predict your performance based on speed reserve.
To test their theory, they used known PRs from Michael Johnson and Sebastian Coe. What is interesting is another “what if” scenario: that is, “what if” Johnson ran an 800 meters? If you followed the T&FN forums in the past, there was so much “fantasy league” message boards postings about Jeremy Wariner moving up to the 800 meters, and possibly smashing the 1:40 minute barrier (the magical 100 second barrier for the 800 meters)
The example below shows the lines intersecting at around 80 seconds, with Coe having the slight edge in the 800 meters (at around 100 seconds).
Now, Usain Bolt is no MJ, and Kenenisa Bekele is certainly no Sebastian Coe (in terms of middle distance), but the PB times are relatively “close” given the statistical nature of the plotted results.
And again, all this is just plain theory. Once they lace their spikes and toe the line, only then we will be certain who will win unless one gets injured (** cough cough Michael Johnson cough cough **).
In theory, Bolt (or the sprinter) would have a very slight edge. 650 meters would be a fairer distance.
As far as the winner goes, well, both are going to be winners in their wallets. Bekele will benefit with the extra publicity. And this event will take us one step closer for Track and Field becoming an entertainment rather than a sport.
BERLIN, GERMANY -Berlin Marathon will mark the start of a series of great races at the classic distance this autumn and it should open the season in style on Sunday, September 20.
One of the prestigious World Marathon Majors (WMM) races the marathon in the German capital will see a highly anticipated duel: World record holder Haile Gebrselassie (Ethiopia/2:03:59) will be up against Duncan Kibet (Kenya), who holds the fastest time this year with 2:04:27. In the women’s race Askale Tafa Magarsa (Ethiopia) is regarded as the favourite after her second place in Berlin in 2008.
The real, Berlin Marathon is an IAAF Gold Label Road Race.
A record number of 40,923 runners from 122 nations have entered the 36th edition of the race. Around one million people are expected to line the course. Due to the German general elections on Sunday 27 September the marathon had to be moved forward one week. This could result in warmer weather conditions than usual. And the present weather forecasts suggest temperatures of up to 25° Celsius on Sunday.
Men’s Race: Haile Gebrselassie targets World record
So far three runners have achieved times of sub 2:04:30 in the marathon. Two of them will be at the start on Sunday. World record holder Haile Gebrselassie will line up as the defending champion in this race. The Ethiopian improved his own personal best to 2:03:59 last year. His strongest competitors will be Kenya’s Duncan Kibet (2:04:27).
So it could well be a top-class competition for victory in the men’s race. 36-year old Gebrselassie will once again be chasing superlatives at the 36th edition of the marathon in the German capital: for the third consecutive time he wants to set a World record. In 2007 he had crossed the line in 2:04:26, then he was 27 seconds faster in 2008. Already after last year’s race Berlin crowd favourite Gebrselassie had said that he thinks an improvement of at least half a minute is possible for him. Another Berlin victory would also be his fourth in a row at this race. This would be another record as no other runner has ever won Germany’s most spectacular road race more than three times.
But on Sunday it will probably be Gebrselassie’s hardest marathon race in Berlin so far. When Paul Tergat was here in May for the 25k race and was asked in an interview who of his fellow Kenyans might be able to break Gebrselassie’s World record he named four: Olympic Champion Sammy Wanjiru, Martin Lel, James Kwambai and – Duncan Kibet.
The 31-year-old Kibet has come as close as anyone else to Gebrselassie’s world record when he took the Rotterdam Marathon in a Kenyan record of 2:04:27 this April. So Kibet might also be able to run sub 2:04 in Berlin if conditions are good, he is in top form and we must hope a fast non-tactical duel with Gebrselassie develops.
“I feel honoured to be able to run against Haile Gebrselassie,” said Duncan Kibet during Thursday’s press conference in Berlin. My training went very well and I think it is a very good sign that my training partner James Kwambai ran 59:09 minutes last Sunday at the Rotterdam Half Marathon.”
Kibet did not want to comment on a possible world record attack, but said that he intends to break his personal best. For this he must of course run in the region of the World record. “After Rotterdam I though that I might be able to run even faster in Berlin. So this is why I decided to go for this race.”
Looking ahead to a duel with Gebrselassie, the Kenyan record holder said: “I don’t know about Haile’s training. And he does not know about my training. So we will have to wait and see how it develops. But I will try to run his pace.”
There are two more Kenyans and one Ethiopian in the race, who want to take advantage of the Berlin course, which is renowned for producing super fast times. Francis Kiprop came fourth at the Seoul Marathon in 2008 in 2:08:30 and Mariko Kiplagat (both Kenya) had taken fourth at last year’s race in Berlin in 2:09:04. Coming third in Dubai this year was the Ethiopian Eshetu Wondimu, who was able to improve to 2:08:41 there despite bad weather conditions.
The strongest non-African runner could be Atsushi Fujita (Japan) who has a personal best of 2:06:51. This however is already nine years old. A debutant to be watched is Cuthbert Nyasango (Zimbabwe), who had been 10th at the IAAF World Half Marathon Championships in 2007 with a personal best of 60:26 minutes.
Women’s race: Magarsa heading for a sub 2:20 time?
Askale Tafa Magarsa will be the favourite in the women’s race on Sunday. A year ago the 24-year-old Ethiopian finished second behind Irina Mikitenko (Germany), clocking a great personal best of 2:21:31. With that she remained the second fastest woman worldwide in 2008. Now Askale Tafa Magarsa returns to Berlin and will be eager to further improve. She may well be able to establish a world season’s best, which currently stands at 2:22:11. Irina Mikitenko clocked this time when winning in London in April. But the 2:20 barrier could be Magarsa’s main goal on Sunday. Last year she had made the mistake to start the race far too fast for which she paid in the final stages.
Askale Tafa Magarsa’s strongest rival probably will be a fellow Ethiopian: Atsede Habtamu clocked 2:25:17 in torrential rain in January’s Dubai Marathon, where the 21 year-old took second place. So it could well be an Ethiopian battle for victory, which will be rewarded with a 50,000 Euro first prize.
And there is a third Ethiopian to be watched on Sunday: 23 year-old Genet Getaneh will also be in with a chance. The 23-year-old Ethiopian finished fifth in 2:26:37 at the Dubai Marathon this year.
The strongest Kenyan should be Leah Malot. She has a very good long distance track record and improved to 2:30:29 at the Paris Marathon this April. Silvia Skvortsova (Russia/PB: 2:27:07), Rosaria Console (Italy/2:27:48) or Britain’s Hayley Haining (2:29:18) could be the fastest non-Africans in the field.
One of the prestigious World Marathon Majors (WMM) races the marathon in the German capital will see a highly anticipated duel: World record holder Haile Gebrselassie (Ethiopia/2:03:59) will be up against Duncan Kibet (Kenya), who holds the fastest time this year with 2:04:27. In the women’s race Askale Tafa Magarsa (Ethiopia) is regarded as the favourite after her second place in Berlin in 2008.