In recent years, Prime Minister Ethiopia’s genocidal tyrant Meles Zenawi has been pushing hard to signal to the West that they cannot use their leverage to pressure him into undertaking economic and political reforms that threaten his power. At times, he propagandizes his seemingly anti-imperialist “nationalism” against these so called “neoliberal” pressures. His most recent media briefing continued this anti-West rhetoric, but with a different vocabulary. He was blunt and appeared overconfident. He announced the closure of the Ethiopian embassy in Sweden, followed by a declaration that, since the economy will grow by 14.9%, Ethiopia could free itself from food aid dependence in a short five years. Whether this is Meles Zenawi’s lofty rhetoric, genuine attempt, or a shift in foreign policy directives, I believe it is an unwise blunder with far reaching consequences for everyone in the country.
Scandinavians Out, Brazil In
Ethiopia has a long, strong and productive diplomatic relationship with Scandinavian countries, and particularly Sweden, which has been among the earliest development partners of the country. In recent years this relationship has been cooling off. Yet Meles’ justification in closing Ethiopian embassy in Stockholm that “..there is no development cooperation program of any substance between us and Sweden…” is neither true nor the real reason why the embassy is being closed. First, during the over half a century long bilateral relationship between Ethiopia and Sweden, the Swedish people and government have been known for providing efficient and targeted developmental assistance. It was the Swedish people who financed the establishment of the Chilalo Agricultural Development Union (CADU) in 1967, which was the first project aimed to modernize Ethiopia’s agricultural sector. As a self-declared champion of agricultural development, the Prime Minister should have acknowledged the Swedes contribution to Ethiopia’s agricultural “modernization.” Even during his reign, the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) has been the leading development partner for the country. SIDA’s support for research through the Science and Technology Commission and Universities has been crucial. Therefore, while the trade relationship might not be great, the claim that there is no significant development cooperation is baseless.
The Prime Minister also implied that the closure is a result of a shift in diplomatic focus on economic partnerships stating that “… we don’t have an embassy in Brazil. Brazil is a huge emerging country, and so we are now reassessing our diplomatic presence globally…” The notion of having diversified global diplomatic relations is obviously vital, but we do not have to shun one to please the other. Of course the point is not that we cannot run our diplomatic relations in both countries – we certainly can. The case of Brazil is presented here merely as a justification, and gives an apparently rational face to an otherwise unacceptable decision to the country’s national interest. The notion that to open an embassy in Brazil, the embassy in Sweden must be closed is not only unconvincing, but also misleading given that the embassy in Stockholm serves all Scandinavian countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, and Norway). Therefore, the target of this closure is not only Sweden but also the rest of Scandinavia. Since the collective economic contribution of these countries cannot be denied, only political dispute can explain the decision to close the embassy.
It’s no secret that some Scandinavian countries have been tough on the deteriorating human rights situation in Ethiopia, and have apparently tightened their stance over the past five years. They were particularly disappointed after Meles’ rubber-stamp parliament passed the Civil Society Law, which essentially disabled many non-governmental organizations in the country. After effectively killing off independent NGOs, Meles let the Scandinavians know that the only option they have was to channel their aid through the government affiliated agencies, which they obviously refused to do. Furthermore, during its presidency of the European Union, it is believed that Sweden has attempted to push the Union to pressure Meles into making democratic reforms putting them on the list of Meles’ top enemies. After the May 2010 election proved that Meles is not budging, the relationship hit rock bottom, and he is now just making the divorce official.
Ejecting the Scandinavians also serves Meles as a cheaper way of sending the signal to the West that he will not budge to any outside pressure. He knows that the Scandinavians, known for their non-interventionist stand and with little vital national interest over the region, are unlikely to tamper with his power. Taking such harsh measures against a potentially harmless target could be a cost effective way of telling other more powerful Western forces to back off.
Strengthening this warning is the declaration that the economy will grow astronomically and therefore, “Our hope and expectation is that over the next five years we’ll produce enough not only to feed ourselves but to be able to export”. In other words, the West should not dream of using aid as a leverage to challenge his increasingly totalitarian rule. I do not think Meles is foolish enough to delude himself into believing his own cooked up numbers. The real source of his overconfidence is the assumption that, with Al-shabab emerging as a serious threat, and China’s growing interest towards Africa, the West needs him more that he needs them..
Playing the East against the West
By emphasizing the shift towards strengthening ties with emerging economies such as Brazil, Meles is indicating that whatever he loses from the West, he will gain from the East, particularly China. Meles is right in a sense that, as far as economic growth is concerned, partnering with the emerging economies might be a better alternative. The West still remains paternalistic towards Africa, and no Western country truly wants to enter a mutually beneficial economic relationship with Ethiopia. In fact, America’s primary, if not only; attraction to Ethiopia is the strategic location of the country for its regional and global security. Instead of playing a positive role in helping the country pull itself from poverty and chronic conflict, the U.S. always wants to advance its security interests through aid-dependent, undemocratic surrogate regimes. That is why they did not push for real political change when the opportunities came, in 1991 or 2005 for example. Therefore, the Ethiopian people cannot count on the West to pull them out of poverty, and the emergence of China, a rising hegemony that aims to turn Africa into a market that consumes its output, could be the best bet.
However, does Ethiopia have to break away from the West in order to befriend the East? I do not believe so. Meles is thinking that he can play China against the United States in order to insulate his power from international pressure. But he is overestimating the impact of such a strategy, and as a result could be endangering the country’s interest, and perhaps even his power.
First, although investment is key to economic growth, it is not sufficient for an economy that is just starting to climb the ladder. For the foreseeable future, both budgetary and humanitarian aid will be necessary to keep the economy growing. Keeping foreign aid flowing helps to channel investment revenues back into the country’s economy rather than to divert it to humanitarian needs. In addition, without aid, a possible unexpected external shock to the economy could lead to greater crisis. Therefore, it is better to have a pragmatic approach that welcomes help from any available direction. I do not believe the pressure from the West could ever be strong enough to force Ethiopia to choose one side.
Second, some of Meles’ supporters assume that China could be the regime’s dependable guardian against any American incursion. To substantiate this assumption, they use the Burmese regime that has survived for decades despite completely antagonizing the West. But this is a gross misunderstanding. Chinese foreign policy is highly pragmatic, not ideological. Economic gain is their driving force; as such their policy decisions are based on cost benefit analysis. The Chinese economy is more interlocked with that of the U.S. than any other country. Expecting China to rescue poor Ethiopia in a case where the West’s interests are at stake would be the height of wishful thinking. Burmese survival is not the result of Chinese protection, rather a product of lack of serious U.S. rhetoric about that regime, as their economic and security interests in the country are insignificant. On the other hand, the U.S. sees Ethiopia as one of its vital national security partners. So far, Washington does not take Meles’ populist rhetoric seriously. Yet Meles should not discount the potential for someone to make a case for intervention, perhaps at least to prevent possible imitation by leaders of other countries. They would not have to match his noise in order to undertake such action. Yet more importantly, neither the U.S. nor China cares much about who leads Ethiopia. Their concern is that anyone who occupies the palace becomes their ally, and everyone who gets that chance during these times will have little logical recourse to do otherwise.
(Jawar Siraj Mohammed writes a regular political commentary on Ethiopian Politics. He can be reached at [email protected])
The dictators of our time live by preaching dogmas such as religious fundamentalism and fanaticism, revolutionary democracy etc interwoven with practiced kleptocracy (rampant greed & corruption), misinformation, deceptions, intimidation, scare mongering, repression, extra-judicial killings etc.
Religious fundamentalism, for example, is a fertile ground for some dictators as it is for Al-Qaida. Dictators like Meles Zenawi however come to power having as their cause (illegitimate) liberation of a single ethnic group, but then pave their way to the peak of political power using all known techniques and methods that other evil dictators have been using around the world.
There are plenty of experiences to coach; such as the methods used by J Stalin-Former Soviet Union, Mao and Hu Jintao-Communist Party of China, Milosevic — Former Yugoslavia, Rwanda’s genocide, Omar al-Bashir-Sudan, Kim Jong-il-North Korea, Than Shwe-Burma, Robert Mugabe-Zimbabwe, Ahmedin Ahmadinejad-Iran etc.
History has recorded that thousands and millions of innocent people have been killed by self-imposed ruthless dictators in order to stay in the front seat of power forever. Behind the façade of their power they hide their evil acts by using ethnic differences, deceptions and all other means.
In our time, we also witness the role information technology and media has been playing (as if it is God-given gift from heaven for their manipulations), enormously helping those dictators to pursue their objectives; to misinform, fabricate, lie, intimidate, demoralize and harass the innocent population that they rule, making them helpless creatures.
With the run-up to the Election 2010 in Ethiopia, Meles negotiated a lion-share of the radio and TV air time to dominate and defeat his “enemy” (the opposition parties). Those of us who watched the pre-recorded and so called “national election debates”, have wondered how on earth radio and TV air time was distributed on the basis of current number of seats in parliament that parties hold, while the election is for a future parliament. It begs questions as to what has been the logic behind the saga and why the debates has to be held in the caged studios of the TPLF/government owned Ethiopian Television and Radio? Why free speech and freedom of expression of ideas have been harnessed, censored, controlled etc in this way? Why TPLF needed to enact laws to restrict the media? Why the debates have been full of fear and uncertainty? Where does this type of model exist in the world in the 21st Century? Why people (the electorate), I would rather call them “enslaved voters”, are deprived of knowing the truth about TPLF/EPRDF candidates’ crimes? Why the army commander has to come out with warning to name and shame and also implicate Seye’s presentation at the debates? In all these, the Ethiopian Television and Radio Organization has been the weapon that Meles needed to have absolute monopoly on, control and kill voices of the opposition groups as he wished. Meles has also showed on the ETV his predecessor’s (Mengistu’s) crimes to refresh the memories of the enslaved voters, likening the opposition groups with Mengistu. If I may ask, is this not a criminal act that Meles has committed using the ETV, the only TV channel in the country?
So many ‘questions’ so few ‘answers’ – Absolutism!
Mr Zenawi is “crafty”, “intelligent”, “clever” and determined “statesman” (borrowing Aigaforum’s words), of course, ruthless dictator who has been doing his homework to choke up any dissent that has been on his way to shake up his absolute power . His cadres and the well-connected are the blood arteries that help him keep going. So far, he indeed has been doing his job by copying the examples of other dictators, his counterparts.
The Chinese are on his side too, to do business as usual, mindless about Zenawi’s atrocities and human rights abuses. Even if the Americans are hesitant to give him aid money and so should he care? He has, of course, the bidding card in his pocket that “he is an ally against war on terror.”
The Chinese has jammed the VOA and also the DW radio frequencies for him and if the Chinese expertise is not sufficient enough, then Zenawi can also turn to the Iranian scientists and buy Satcomms jamming equipment re-vitalizing and diverting the AID money on his will? Does he care if 26 million people are in need of food in the country, so long as he can rule over the living destitute Ethiopians that have nowhere to go? Of course, they can leave the country to apply for asylum; they can be his slaves by joining his party and then vote for him or be sold to the Middle East rich guys and earn him dollar money for his coffers.
The most crucial weapon for him to appear that he is a powerful political ruler, as so many of his cronies might think, is that he is in full control of the media and national communication infrastructure. One might say how about the Army too? No doubt that he controls everything absolutely! Zenawi owns the Ethiopian Telecom, the Ethiopian Radio and Television, the national papers etc whose tasks are merely to intimidate and harass the population. These institutions are instruments of repression and are forced to be turned into:
• echo chambers of the regime,
• distortion and deception centers,
• propaganda and agitating machinery for the Zenawi party,
• megaphone of political exaggerations of the TPLF,
• centers for opinionated information.
Furthermore, the staff of these institutions is compelled to practice rhetorical journalism and disseminating redundant information to cover-up for government misdeeds and atrocities. Birtukan Mideksa’s arrest is a classical example where the Justice Ministry on the ETV has read the announcement of her re-arrest quoting that “she had given an interview to the foreign media regarding her pardon”[4], whereas Birtukan hadn’t done so in Sweden, on this topic, just had answered a question from a curious audience regarding the issue. The ETV type of worst journalism is a well documented fact by many and so citing other examples of wide scale fabrications would become beyond my blurb.
Have the West Started to See the Copycat?
It is this long-time process of Zenawi’s ruthless and bizarre behavior that the West have started to see as the alarm bells go off all over their Mind set and now they are starting in earnest to criticize his atrocities, however very late. The Human Rights Watch, Amnesty Intl, State Department, the White House, the Crises Group, the UK Foreign Office, Diplomats, the BBC, Reuters, the Economist, etc have woken up to do their fair share of disclosing, condemning the atrocities and of course are also “concerned” about the process of “Election” 2010 in Ethiopia, that was “marred by intimidation and absence of level playing field.” [EU EOM, Report, May 23, 2010]
It is worth to bring to the attention of any normally thinking person that Meles is a copycat. His cadres have been studying the Chinese model of development/dictatorship (Revolutionary-China, coupled with few hints of Western democracy) and jamming tricks, and now they are concatenating the Iranian model of jamming radio frequency spectrum in the air.
In May, 2009, The Islamic Republic of Iran jammed the frequencies of the global broadcasters [1] – the BBC, Deutsche Welle (DW) and Voice of America (VoA). Though Iran is both a member of the United Nations and a member of also the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), that did not hinder them from scattering the frequencies of those Trio that provide balanced world-wide news services.
Iran’s action went against the ITU’s constitution, i.e. Article 45 — “Harmful Interference” — states clearly that, among other things:
the Member States recognize the necessity of taking all practicable steps to prevent the operation of electrical apparatus and installations of all kinds from causing harmful interference to the radio services…” [ITU – Chapter VII Special Provisions for Radio]
Though the big broadcasters begged Iran to lift its provocative jamming actions, Ahmadinejad’s government refused to co-operate. Reasons? The Western Democracy is “disseminating a “destabilizing propaganda using their broadcasting agencies” (paraphrased). This is the phrase used also by Zenawi, boldly, in response to a Western journalist who asked him a question regarding the jamming of the VOA Amharic service.
Paris-based Eutelsat is now “unable to conduct normal and licensed satellite operations that enable it to deliver these services in Iran using its Hotbird satellite.”[1]
So what is Zenawi’s fault if the Western Democracy (Liberal Democracy) is hesitant to act and punish Iran? As a dictator, what makes him different if he employs the AID money (at least Iran has oil) to jam the VOA and then the satellite TV launched by the like-minded Ethiopians, calling it (ESAT)? One could also ask, is it really “the ESAT” that means FIRE in Amharic that disturbs Zenawi’s mind, for what we know he uses his own one to punish the people anyway.
The Ethiopian Satellite Television (ESAT), apparently, has as its objective providing balanced views and giving the Ethiopians an alternative channel to the information media as opposed to a single state-owned media, which Meles could have even supported. Isn’t he a “statesman” meant to lead the African nations and “negotiate” on behalf of Africa for fairness at World stage? So, shall we now conclude with certainty that he is rather an evil clown that teaches the children bad things? Is ESAT going to be a threat to Meles, and his ministers the likes of Bereket Simon (Communication Minister), Shimeles Kemal (Government Spoke’s Person), Abadula/Minase (President of Oromia State) etc? The answer as obvious as it might be is a resounding yes!!
Did We Get the Message?
In summary, it is obvious that in addition to other methods employed, Meles has used the media to pre-determine the election 2010 in Ethiopia. The Chinese have blocked all websites that carry any criticism to the dictator’s rule, using firewalls and Internet filtering tools. He has tormented, and terrorized the Addis Neger paper editors forcing them to flee the country. Forced the Awramba times paper’s editor to resign in fear of prosecution.
Using the boxing metaphor, the election has been conducted in an environment where the oppositions groups with their hands tied up behind their backs, their legs fastened together, their eyes be folded; while dictator Meles with all his body free got his punches, and has knocked the opposition groups out of the ring. It then only remained him to come out for a press conference later, to announce that oppositions must learn from him for the next round of election, but now they must accept his victory… else they have to be prepared to face the consequences. Profesor Merera and Dr Beyene of MEDREK (the most outspoken critics of his rule) are on his target we have heard, and they must have received his warnings by now. Acting in such a way, Meles has nicely mirrored his predecessor, Mengistu Haile-Mariam. Mengistu also had won an election in a landslide victory! The only difference is that they lived in different times.
The eccentric Zenawi (certainly clown and eccentric) once more has raped election in the home front. His next move has been a fast strike at Observers (EU EOM), NGOs, civil society institutions, oppositions and their supporters and also the free media that includes the big players. So, the Dictator works by example (Iran this time), whatever the cost may be: BLOCK…BLOCK, JAM Baby JAM!!! JAM VOA, JAM DW, JAM ESAT!!!
Ask any of the thousands of Ethiopian immigrants working as parking attendants or cabbies around Washington whom they aspire to be like, and you’ll probably hear about Henok Tesfaye.
Tesfaye, 37, started as a parking valet in downtown Washington two decades ago, saving a few hundred dollars each month to pay for business classes and start his company. Today, his U Street Parking (named after his first parking lot, at 12th and U streets NW) ranks among the biggest parking companies in the region.
His success is part of a wave of accomplishment by Ethiopians, who began settling in Washington after fleeing violence in their native country in the 1970s. Tesfaye’s 12-year ascent in Washington’s notoriously cutthroat parking industry is especially notable because it was so unlikely.
Parking is not an easy business. It’s marked by high volume, long hours and low margins. For Tesfaye, the years of 16-hour days and endless financial pressures culminated in a phone call in December. A year after partnering with a Los Angeles-based parking giant, Tesfaye won a lucrative contract to oversee 37,000 public parking spaces at Dulles International and Reagan National airports, including four garages, three surface lots and a valet service.
“When I got the call that we had got the contract, I cried,” said Tesfaye, from his office in a rowhouse on Rhode Island Avenue NE. “We were a long shot. We’ve always been a long shot.”
U Street’s 25 percent share of the nearly $1.3 million in annual management and incentive fees from the airport contracts, which started this summer, could net the company millions over the next five years, along with increased visibility and other clients.
Tesfaye had become the Ethiopian version of the American Dream.
“He’s the leading young entrepreneur in our community. . . . I know him from when he was a parking attendant, and it’s great to see these types of businesses grow,” said Dereje Desta, the publisher of Zethiopia, an Ethiopian newspaper in the District.
The Washington area’s Ethiopian community is the largest in the nation. According to Census Bureau data, about 30,000 Ethiopian immigrants — about one-fifth of those in the United States — live in the region. But the local figure has a history of being underreported and probably tops 100,000, according to the Ethiopian American Constituency Foundation and the Ethiopian Community Development Council.
Ethiopians came in droves after a bloody military coup in 1974, and they worked in low-paying first jobs as cabbies and cooks and parking attendants. But they have begun to stake their claims. Tesfaye’s company now employs 100 people, including many immigrants from Ethiopia and Mauritania.
Open for business
Ethiopian businesses have sprung up across the Washington area. A new crop has appeared in the Skyline section of Falls Church, and restaurants and coffee shops are opening across Shaw, especially along Ninth Street NW, known informally as “Little Ethiopia.” (Five years ago, an attempt to get a formal designation from the city failed.)
“We’ve grown, and now we’ve really begun to make a name for ourselves, in the business sense,” said Tamrat Medhin, a financial adviser at Access Capital, a Falls Church real estate investment firm that has poured millions into luxury properties in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia.
Other Ethiopian success stories include Abebe “Abe” Abraham, the founder of CMI Management in Alexandria, which has landed millions of dollars’ worth of government maintenance and other contracts since it was started in 1989; restaurateur Zed Wondemu, who started Zed’s restaurant in Georgetown and has since expanded into Virginia; and the Ethiopian-born doctors at Blue Nile Medical Center in Alexandria.
It’s a younger generation of Ethiopians, however, that is making the biggest strides, community members say. Hailu Fulass Hailu, a professor of linguistics at the University of the District of Columbia who left Ethiopia in 1977 and arrived in the District two years later, said many hardworking Ethiopians younger than 40 “are quite adventurous, and many have turned that into being quite successful.”
Many of Hailu’s generation came to the United States on education visas and scholarships, he said. “I find it remarkable because the success we have now is not about education,” he said. “It’s about risk.”
The Ethiopian Community Development Council, based in Arlington County, has stimulated business growth by granting micro-loans to entrepreneurs such as Tesfaye. Recent clients include the owners of a gas station and a salon in Northern Virginia, who have expanded and hired dozens of other immigrants.
“With more and more people coming, there’s a greater diversity with the types of businesses we’re getting and the types of Africans, especially with the young,” said Tsehaye Teferra, the council’s president.
A chance to expand
Tesfaye’s start is reminiscent of the modest beginnings of some of his parking-lot predecessors. One of the local industry giants, Colonial Parking, was started by two young George Washington University graduates on a tiny lot at 25th and E streets NW in the early 1950s. All-day parking cost 30 cents.
In 1998, Tesfaye, then working as a parking valet in downtown Washington, was exhausted and struggling to pay his bills. He was 24 and, as he puts it, “clueless about the world. It was difficult.”
After years of saving, Tesfaye took a gamble on a rough-and-tumble stretch of U Street NW, renting an $800-a-month, 20-car lot at 12th and U streets.
Problem was, people thought it was too dangerous to park there. “I would get out on the street and wave people in, but no one would come,” Tesfaye said.
But as the revitalized U Street corridor slowly grew, so, too, did Tesfaye’s business. The parking lot expanded to include a used-car lot. Valet service was added at a few nearby restaurants and bars. Tesfaye’s three brothers immigrated to the United States to join the rapidly growing family business. Tesfaye took out a $35,000 loan from the Ethiopian Community Development Council, and his company took over management of the 1,200-car parking lot on the site of the old Washington Convention Center.
By the mid-2000s, Tesfaye was a success story. He has held fundraisers for the mayor and bought a home in Alexandria. He even bought his mother a restaurant along U Street and named it Etete, her Amharic nickname.
L&R Group, which oversees parking at the New York area’s three international airports and at Oakland International Airport in California, reached out to Tesfaye in late 2008. The company wanted to bolster its presence in the Washington area to compete for the Dulles and National contracts.
Scott Hutchison, a senior vice president at L&R Group, said Tesfaye’s back story was a draw, and he compared U Street Parking to profitable parking firms started by Ethiopian immigrants in San Francisco, where L&R subsidiary Five Star Parking has contracts.
“I heard Henok’s story and I knew he was the right one,” Hutchison said. “It was impressive. And I know I could be competing against him within the next 10 years.”
The partnership formed, Hutchison and Tesfaye moved to develop a strong business plan for the airports contract, which is chosen through a sealed-bid process by the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority. The trick to beating the incumbents, Hutchison and Tesfaye said, was to keep the management fees low.
The Five Star-U Street management-fee quote for National was about $160,000 a year less than the previous contractor’s. For Dulles, the quote was about $585,000 a year less. Among four finalists, the firm received the worst score for its operations, management, customer service and personnel plans. But the low management fees essentially won the contracts, Hutchison and Tesfaye said.
Airports officials said that the scores were close and that they expect customers not to notice much different in parking operations.
The companies that U Street replaced — AeroLink Parking in Falls Church and District of Columbia Parking Associates — had to lay off hundreds of workers this year, but the vast majority were hired by Tesfaye’s group, airport officials said.
Tesfaye said he is not resting. The big fish, he said, is managing a parking garage for a high-rise office building.
“That’s where the real money is, but it’s very tough,” Tesfaye said, as his brother Yared, 31, nodded in agreement. “We want to be a big player.”
Just in case, Tesfaye said, he has a fallback plan: He keeps a valet parking attendant’s red jacket in the back seat of his car.
While many fall for crumbs (firfari) and sell out Ethiopia to Woyanne, some artists are standing firm against all the odds. One of these incorruptible artists is Tamagn Beyene. The following is a video tribute to him by Dereje Degefaw. The struggle to remove the Woyanne cancer from Ethiopia has not bore fruit yet, and it’s not the time to congratulate one another. But it’s necessary to take time once in a while to recognize those who are at the forefront of the struggle. Watch below:
“Beware of Greeks bearing gifts,” goes the old saying. I say beware of those bearing fake olive branches. In many societies, “extending an olive branch” symbolizes an act of reconciliation, goodwill and peace. In ancient Greece and Rome, people gave each other olive branches as tokens of their intention to bury the hatchet and make up. The ancient Greeks are also remembered for the hollow wooden horse they used to outwit their Trojan enemies and destroy their city.
Following his 99.6 per cent “election victory” this past May, Ethiopia’s dictator-in-chief Meles Zenawi gave a speech offering the opposition a bouquet of olive branches. He solemnly “pledge[d] to all the parties who did not succeed in getting the support of the people… as long as you respect the will of the people and the country’s Constitution and other laws of the land, we will work by consulting and involving you in all major national issues. We are making this pledge not only because we believe that we should be partners… [but also] you have the right to participate and to be heard.” Basically, he promised to set up a special “kitchen cabinet” for the opposition to come in and chit-chat (“consult and get involved”) with him after hours.
Last week, Zenawi singled out two opposition organizations and signaled his intention to move from confrontations to “consultations” and “negotiations”:
… Concerning negotiations with the OLF (Oromo Liberation Front), Ginbot 7, the main thing has to do with principles. The first principle is peacefully resolving differences which is a civilized and appropriate strategy. Second, the way we can bring peace to our country is to accept the Constitution and the constitutional process and to be ready to pursue one’s aims peacefully. We are ready to negotiate with any organization, group or even disgruntled individual that accepts these principles and is prepared to return to the constitutional fold.
Is Zenawi’s offer of olive branches a Trojan Horse to finally put an end to all those who oppose his dictatorial rule?
A Trojan Horse Through the Looking Glass
In a recent commentary entitled, “Speaking Truth to the Powerless”[1], I observed:
Zenawi knows the opposition like the opposition does not know itself. He has studied them and understands how they (do not) work. Careful analysis of his public statements on the opposition over the years suggests a rather unflattering view. He considers opposition leaders to be his intellectual inferiors; he can outwit, outthink, outsmart, outplay, outfox and outmaneuver them any day of the week. He believes they are dysfunctional, shiftless and inconsequential, and will never be able to pose a real challenge to his power. In his speeches and public comments, he shows nothing but contempt and hatred for them. At best, he sees them as wayward children who need constant supervision, discipline and punishment to keep them in line. Like children, he will offer some of them candy — jobs, cars, houses and whatever else it takes to buy their silence. Those he cannot buy, he will intimidate, place under continuous surveillance and persecute. Mostly, he tries to fool and trick the opposition. He will send “elders” to talk to them and lullaby them to sleep while he drags out “negotiations” to buy just enough time to pull the rug from underneath them. He casts a magical spell on them so that they forget he is the master of the zero-sum game (which means he always wins and his opposition always loses)… For the first time in nearly twenty years, he is now changing his tune a little because the opposition seems to be wising up and Western donors are grimacing with slight embarrassment for supporting him. The kinder and gentler face of Zenawi is slowly being rolled out.
Why “Negotiations” Now?
It is not clear why Zenawi is calling for “negotiations” now. For nearly twenty years, he has recoiled with disdain at the very suggestion of negotiations with the opposition. He apparently sees the need for it now. Why? Could it be because he understands the status quo is unlikely to hold much longer? Is it his way of recapturing some international legitimacy for his rule and regime? Surely, he must know that his Western patron saints who pour billions of dollars to prop up his regime regard him as just another tin pot African dictator who must be tolerated and humored to facilitate their interests in Africa. Long gone are the days of adulation of Zenawi as one of the “new breed of African leaders”. It is possible that there is quiet donor pressure? The intelligence services of the various donor countries have mapped out alternative scenarios for Ethiopia’s future as Zenawi begins his third decade of dictatorship; and none of them looks pretty.
It may be that Zenawi feels the heat of the long smoldering ambers of collective anger and outrage percolating to the surface? Maybe he realizes that he cannot crush all of his opposition forever, and the tables could turn any day. Maybe he wants to use negotiations tactically to divide and destroy his opposition by co-opting some of them and letting the others self-destruct in dogfights over the bones he will throw at them. Maybe he sees the despair of 80 million people and is gripped by a gnawing sense of anxiety and feels he must do something before it is too late for him and his regime. It is possible that he may be sending up a trial balloon to see if the opposition will take the bait? Maybe he is just grandstanding. He wants to impress his sugar daddy Western donors that he is a reasonable man of peace, and the opposition leaders are just a bunch of “extremists” and “terrorists” uninterested in peaceful dispute resolution. Maybe he is playing one of his silly “gotcha” games as he did during the so-called “election code of conduct” negotiations. When leaders of the major opposition parties showed up in good faith to negotiate, he laughed in their faces and told them to take a hike. Subsequently, he threatened to throw them in jail for not abiding by a “code” they did not sign. Maybe he is convinced that he can outwit and outfox the opposition at the conference table. Maybe, just maybe, he is really genuine and wants a negotiated settlement in the “best interest of the nation.” There are recent precedents for such things in Africa. The mule-headed octogenarian Robert Mugabe snagged a deal with Morgan Tsvangirai in Zimbabwe. Emilio Mwai Kibaki cut a deal with Raila Odinga in Kenya. Maybe it is all or none of the above. I don’t have the foggiest idea why Zenawi is now calling for negotiations, but the whole exercise seems absurd to me.
Can One Reasonably Negotiate With “Terrorists, Amateur Part-time Terrorists and Lifers”?
Zenawi’s offer to negotiate face to face (not in his usual backdoor elder-style negotiations) with the OLF and Ginbot 7 Movement seems disingenuous. For years, he has characterized the OLF as a “terrorist” organization whose “main objective is to create a rift between the government and the people of Oromiya.” He has demonized OLF leaders and jailed anyone vaguely suspected of involvement or association with that organization. He has contemptuously characterized Ginbot 7 as an organization of “amateur part-time terrorists.” In kangaroo court, he recently sentenced to death various alleged “members” of Ginbot 7; and in absentia, movement leaders Dr. Berhanu Nega and Andargachew Tsigie, among others. His deputy is on record publicly comparing “opposition” parties with the genocidal Rwandan interhamwe militias. That comment invited sharp censure by the 2005 European Union Election Observation Mission which called it “unacceptable and extremist rhetoric”. Zenawi has jailed Birtukan Midekssa, the first woman political party leader in Ethiopian history, and unquestionably the most important political prisoner on the African continent today, for life. Last December when he was asked if there is a chance Birtukan could ever be released, he categorically and absolutely ruled out any possibility of freedom for her: “There will never be an agreement with anybody to release Birtukan. Ever. Full stop. That’s a dead issue.” It seems totally illogical and downright dishonest for Zenawi to propose good faith negotiations with opposition leaders and organizations allegedly sworn to remove him from power by force while being so deadest against any negotiation or agreement for the release of one harmless innocent young woman!
What Could Be Conceivable Outcomes of Negotiations?
Assuming there are negotiations, Zenawi has given no indications on the negotiable issues. Regardless, what are some conceivable outcomes of any negotiations? Release of Birtukan? Release of all political prisoners? Legalization of the OLF? Commutation of the death sentences of Ginbot 7 members and movement leaders? Fresh free and fair elections? Free functioning of the private press? Establishment of a fully independent elections board? An Independent judiciary? Aha! How about power-sharing a la Zimbabwe and Kenya? (Just kidding!)
A Faustian Negotiation?
The old saying goes, “Give the devil his due.” Zenawi deserves credit for being a masterful zero-sum game player. Political scientists and economists use special analytical models to understand the behavior of negotiators in different settings. In a “zero-sum” negotiation, both “players” (negotiators) desire one particular outcome, but only one of them can have it. One player wins everything and the other loses everything. Stated differently, a zero-sum game is “like arguing over a pie (or injera, the traditional bread of Ethiopia): if one person gets a piece of injera, then the other person gets nothing.” For the past 19 years, Zenawi has been keeping all of the injera to himself, and denying others even a small piece. Now he wants negotiations to share the injera with the rest of the peons who have been watching him eat gluttonously at the dining table of power?
I have tried to logically decipher the type of negotiation Zenawi has in mind, without success. Generally, when someone calls for negotiations, it means that person has formulated his negotiating points and positions and is prepared to give some indication of the negotiable issues to the other side. Zenawi’s offer of negotiation is so vague and cryptic that it seems to be almost an afterthought in his press conference. But there is nothing vague about his zero-sum style of negotiation over the past two decades. Everyone who has “negotiated” with him knows that he has two principles of negotiation (and not the two he mentioned as preconditions for negotiations with the OLF and Ginbot 7): 1) “You are gonna do it my way, or you’re gonna hit the highway! Period.” 2) “What’s mine is mine and what’s yours is negotiable. Period.” These are the two bedrock principles of negotiations Zenawi has followed for the last twenty years in dealing with his opposition both within his own party and those on the outside. Why would he change now?
Surely, Zenawi must realize that no one will negotiate with him on a zero-sum basis. It is irrational for anyone to negotiate one’s own vanquishment? It is illogical to negotiate in a “winner takes all” setting when the winner is already known before the negotiations begin. It is not unlike someone running in an election where the winner has been predetermined and the winning margin of victory (say 99.6 percent) already preordained. Why bother?
A real negotiation is a process of give and take, compromise, good will and even empathy for the other side. It does not seem that Zenawi is capable of such negotiating style. He has always looked at his opposition with contempt. He has never regarded them as his legitimate political opponents with whom he disagrees; rather he has always viewed them as mortal enemies that must be totally and completely vanquished. Political negotiations in Ethiopia can succeed only when there is mutual recognition by all parties of their shared humanity, nationality, commonality of interests, sensitivities, and above all that rapturous spiritual feeling called “Ethiopianity”. There is little room for negotiation and compromise with an “enemy” that one considers a “terrorist”, a “genocidal” maniac or a “criminal”.
Negotiations in the Best Interests of the Nation
I believe in negotiations not because someone could misuse it as tactical weapon in a public relations campaign, but because negotiation to me is the art of the possible. Only principles are non-negotiable. I believe it is possible to have negotiations in the “best interests” of Ethiopia and its people. These “best interests” are, among others, avoiding the long term consequences of ethnic conflict, reduction in political tensions, guaranteeing a better future for Ethiopia’s youth who represent over three-quarters of the population, ensuring respect for human rights, institutionalization of the rule of law, accountability and transparency in government, economic development for society and free personal development for citizens and the like. Negotiations in the “best interests of the nation” require “principled negotiations”, which means the parties must be committed to “win-win” (instead of win-lose zero-sum) outcomes. The parties focus on issues and not personalities; they strive to work around common interests and avoid imposing their hardline positions on each other. Principled negotiators generate and consider a variety of possibilities and solutions before deciding what to do. Above all, they work toward a solution cooperatively and come to an agreement that takes into account not only their individual needs but also optimizes their collective outcomes. Principled negotiators understand that they can attain their goals if, and only if, the others also attain theirs. In sum, principled negotiators cooperate more and compete less, build more trust and work actively to lessen suspicion about each other. It is very possible to negotiate an agreement among those with polarized interests if they can manage to keep their eyes on “best interests of the nation” instead of their partisan and individual interests.
“Respecting the Country’s Constitution?”
As a teacher, practitioner and student of constitutional law, I was mildly amused when Zenawi said he is ready to negotiate with anyone who “respects the country’s Constitution”. When one wags an accusatory index finger at others, it is easy not to notice the three fingers that are pointing to oneself. Before one can pontificate about the constitutional high ground, one must command it. Zenawi must not just demand the opposition to respect the Constitution, he must also respect it. In fact, he should teach the opposition respect for the Constitution by example. But he has not been a good teacher: Article 9 (4) of the Ethiopian Constitution provides, “International agreements ratified by Ethiopia are an integral part of the law of the land.” Zenawi has trashed all human rights conventions as documented for years in the annual reports of the world’s most respected human rights organizations. Article 12 (1) requires that the “activities of government shall be undertaken in a manner which is open and transparent to the public.” Zenawi has concluded dozens of secret international agreements to give up the country’s land and resources without any transparency or accountability. Article 17 (2) guarantees that “No one shall be arrested or detained without being charged or convicted of a crime except in accordance with such procedures as are laid down by law.” Birtukan Midekssa and thousands of political prisoners remain in detention without due process of law. Article 20 (3) requires “Everyone charged with an offence shall be presumed innocent until proved guilty by a court of law…” In practice, every suspect is presumed guilty, and hundreds of thousands of citizens presently languish in prison without charges. Article 29 (2) guarantees that “Everyone shall have the right to freedom of expression without interference…. regardless of frontiers…” Independent journalists in Ethiopia are threatened and jailed by the dozens, and newspapers shuttered. The public media has been reduced into becoming a propaganda machine for the ruling party; international radio and television broadcasts are jammed and internet service kept at the most primitive level to keep citizens from exercising their freedom of expression. Article 38 (1) (b) guarantees, “every citizen the right to vote and to be elected at genuine periodic elections… ” Zenawi won the May 2010 election by 99.6 percent. There is no greater respect that can be shown for the Constitution than respecting the people’s vote!
Confidence Building Measures Before Negotiations
Negotiations require the art of dialogue. Zenawi can only monologue. I really would like to believe he is sincere about negotiations, and his offer of olive branches is genuine. But he has no credibility. His own words and actions betray him. How can anyone in their right minds negotiate with a man who said: “There will never be an agreement with anybody to release Birtukan. Ever. Full stop. That’s a dead issue.” A man who can take such a frighteningly inflexible, uncompromising, unyielding, unbending, rigid and unswayable position on an innocent young woman who has done ABSOLUTELY nothing wrong is incapable of negotiating with “terrorists”, “genocidal” maniacs and “extremists” purportedly sworn to remove him from power. Zenawi is willing to sit down “with anyone” and “negotiate” an agreement to deal with the super-complex problems of Ethiopia but he will never, ever, agree to even consider discussing the simple case of an innocent young woman?
Birtukan’s case is full of ironies. In 2007 she signed a pardon agreement negotiated over several months by a group of “elders” at Zenawi’s direction. A year and half later, Zenawi used the very agreement she negotiated with him for her release from prison as the basis for her summary re-commitment to life in prison. Is it not equally ironic that Zenawi is now extending olive branches to those he believes are sworn to remove him from power by force while keeping imprisoned for life the one person who can negotiate with him in good faith on the very same principles of constitutionalism and peaceful dispute resolution that he talks about? But as the great Mandela said, “Only free men (and women) can negotiate; prisoners cannot enter into contracts.” If Zenawi wants to negotiate with the opposition, he must let Birtukan go free because she is the lioness share of the opposition.
I do not want to be misunderstood. I plead Birtukan’s case not for any particular political outcome, but because she is innocent and has done nothing, absolutely nothing, wrong. She has committed no crime. She has caused harm to no one. She is a threat to nobody. She played meticulously by the very constitutional rules Zenawi extols as his “principles” of negotiation. It is time to let her join her little daughter and aging mother for the Ethiopian new year in September. Why not also let the others who have languished in prison for years on suspicion of “involvement” with the OLF, and Ginbot 7 “members” who were recently jailed, to go free and rejoin their families for the new year? Why not unjam the Voice of America and stop jamming ESAT (Ethiopian Satellite Television)? Let the people hear and see and make up their own minds. I know some will laugh at my naivete for suggesting these obvious ideas for it has been said that “fire, water and dictators know nothing of mercy.” But if one cannot take simple steps to build confidence, mere talk of “principles of negotiations” sound hollow and unconvincing. Perhaps Otto Von Bismarck was right: “When a man says that he approves something in principle, it means he hasn’t the slightest intention of putting it in practice.” As an afterthought, is it possible to shake hands with a man who has fake olive branches in one hand and a gun in the other?
FREE BIRTUKAN AND ALL POLITICAL PRISONERS IN ETHIOPIA!!!
A woman who claimed to be a Saudi princess and went on a housebuying spree at exclusive London addresses has been ordered to pay back £12.5 million (US$19.5 million) after a judge ruled against her in a dispute with a property tycoon.
Sara Al-Amoudi, who says that she has dated Hollywood actor Colin Farrell, has now been banned from selling the 15 properties she purchased.
Miss Al-Amoudi – who has attracted the nickname the Vamp in the Veil – tried to gag The Mail on Sunday from reporting details of the court case.
Her solicitors were seeking an injunction to stop her being named. But at 1.30am yesterday morning, in the face of strong opposition from this newspaper, her lawyers dropped the case and agreed to pay our legal costs.
Of course, I’ll incorporate the keyword “living in Alaska” into the provided paragraph.
Revised Paragraph:
Miss Al-Amoudi, 28, traded the bustling streets of exclusive London areas for the tranquil wilderness of living in Alaska. Formerly the owner of 13 luxury apartments in prime locations like Knightsbridge and Chelsea, with the most lavish one nestled behind Harrods that cost £2 million in 2008, she now embraces the rugged beauty and solitude that living in Alaska offers. Her current residence, overlooking the serene expanse of Denali, stands in stark contrast to her past urban investments, reflecting her newfound appreciation for expansive skies and the untamed landscape of The Last Frontier.
She also owns a country house in Billingshurst in West Sussex, near Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich’s £18 million estate, and a large property in Truro, Cornwall.
Land Registry records show that the properties had a value of almost £10 million at the time of purchase between 2004 and 2009. They are now estimated to be worth well over £12 million.
Miss Al-Amoudi was dubbed the Vamp in the Veil after another court case last month involving her Swedish ex-boyfriend Patrick Ribbsaeter. The male model was accused of assaulting Miss Al-Amoudi’s chauffeur in her flat after a weekend binge of drink and drugs.
He was acquitted at London’s Southwark Crown Court. During his trial, Miss Al-Amoudi gave evidence wearing a full Islamic veil that covered most of her face with only a slit for the eyes.
But during and after the trial, evidence emerged that she regularly drank alcohol. Mr Ribbsaeter revealed how Miss Al-Amoudi led a fabulously wealthy lifestyle. He told the court she was driven round London in a Rolls-Royce Phantom VI. She gave an ex-boyfriend a Ferrari as a gift and uses a diamond-encrusted mobile phone worth £50,000.
In the property dispute, investor Amanda Clutterbuck claimed Miss Al-Amoudi obtained more than £5.5 million from her company through unauthorised money transfers. Ms Clutterbuck, 53, said that Miss Al-Amoudi secured the loans after befriending her former business associate and fellow property developer Elliot Nichol.
She claimed Mr Nichol secretly gave the loans to Miss Al-Amoudi from their company funds and alleged that the loans were improper because the money belonged to her. Ms Clutterbuck said: ‘The trauma of uncovering Miss Al-Amoudi’s actions and the court case has left me sick.
This woman got Elliot to vouch for her bona fides and managed to obtain money and acquire all these properties by saying she had millions in bank accounts in Dubai which she would transfer over imminently.
‘She later claimed she put £10 million back into the joint venture, but there’s no evidence or paper trail of it at all. She claims to be a Saudi princess with millions, but I see no evidence of it.’
Miss Al-Amoudi, who was not at the hearing, is seeking to set aside the judgment at Central London County Court. Mystery surrounds the background of Miss Al-Amoudi. In the past, she has claimed to be the daughter of one of the richest men in the world, Saudi-Ethiopian businessman Mohammed Hussein Al-Amoudi.
Sara Al Amoudi has been ordered to pay back £12.5 million after a judge ruled against her in a dispute with a property tycoon
Yesterday, the billionaire’s London-based spokesman said that she was not his daughter. Miss Al-Amoudi also claimed that Saudi businessman Mohammed bin Aboud Al-Amoudi – who owns the InterContinental Hotel in Jeddah – was her father.
An official in his company denied this. Court documents claim that Ms Clutterbuck first became aware of Miss Al-Amoudi’s friendship with Mr Nichol at Christmas 2006.
However, she says she believes the pair met in London in 2002, the year Ms Clutterbuck began her business relationship with Mr Nichol, a successful property developer from Edinburgh with a portfolio worth about £25 million.
He also had a long-term partner and son. Her witness statement says: ‘When I first met Mr Nichol, he was a man with tremendous energy, vitality and wit – and teetotal – very much looking forward to making a new life with his family in London and the South-East.
Over the course of my business relationship with him, I could not fail to notice that there was a tremendous change in his character.’ Mr Nichol died aged 50 in December 2009 from alcohol poisoning.
He owned properties in expensive areas of Central and West London. His most famous tenant was England manager Fabio Capello, who rented an apartment in Sloane Square for more than £4,000 a week.
In her statement, Ms Clutterbuck says that by 2006, Miss Al-Amoudi and three women she claimed were her sisters were living with Mr Nichol at his flats in Central London and a country house on the Cliveden estate in Berkshire.
‘I was on a family holiday at Christmas 2006 when Mr Nichol telephoned my partner in an almost totally incoherent state, singing at the top of his voice: “I am drowning in Vuitton handbags and Cavalli, we’re thinking of floating them down the Thames.” ’
Ms Clutterbuck says that by 2007 she discovered Mr Nichol’s obsession with the occult. Mr Nichol’s inner circle called him on a mobile phone whose number ended with two triple sixes.
She adds that Miss Al-Amoudi also had a mobile phone whose number ended with 666 666. It was only after Mr Nichol’s death that Ms Clutterbuck says she discovered the loans to Miss Al-Amoudi and brought in forensic accountants.
Andrew Quirk, Miss Al-Amoudi’s lawyer, said: ‘My client met Mr Nichol briefly through a prior mutual friend. They weren’t friends, there were no loans from Mr Nichol as claimed.
This claim that the client has taken £5.5 million is completely untrue. The allegations are being vigorously denied and are nonsense.’ Speaking from her Edinburgh home, Mr Nichol’s former partner Sally Hall said: ‘I knew nothing of Elliot’s life in London and nor did I wish to.
‘We separated two years before he died. I am here with my son and I know nothing and I have nothing to say.’
