By Abukar Arman

In light of the development of several critical issues that include U.S. economic volatility and the new political direction it’s likely to turn towards, it’s not farfetched to predict that Washington-supported Ethiopian Woyanne occupation of Somalia will soon come to an end.

However, what ensues might not provide comfort to some who erroneously bought into the mindset that politics and Islam cannot and should not mix. But, unfortunately, their reaction would be the element that would tip the scale.

Evidently, Ethiopia’s regime is unable to feed its own people and thus could not feasibly sustain this occupation without Washington ’s financial, political and technical support. In fiscal year 2007, U.S. awarded the Ethiopian regime approximately $300 million dollars in a non-humanitarian aid, and it was supposed to award double that amount in fiscal year 2008 in order to “fight against Islamists in neighboring Somalia ”. Be as it may, today, Ethiopian regime is on a political slippery slope that unless it takes drastic measures (and soon) it can become the next epicenter of violence in the Horn of Africa.

The cruel occupation and the violent insurgency that it inspired have paved the way for the creation of the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. According to the UN estimate, 3.5 million Somalis are now on the verge of starvation, and about 1.5 million are IDPs (internally displaced persons). This coupled with the widely documented brutal oppression against ethnically Somali people of Ogadenia have profoundly contributed to the rapid erosion of Ethiopia ’s international image. Ethiopia has become Africa ’s hegemonic brute with a long record of gross human rights abuses and war crimes violations.

Last year, ten U.S. Senators have sent a joint, bi-partisan letter to the Secretary of State expressing their grave concern over Ethiopian regime’s (Woyanne) mounting human rights violation record. Likewise, the U.S. House of Representatives has passed a bill that became known as The Ethiopia Democracy and Accountability Act.

Compounding the pressure is the insurgency getting much fiercer and more popular every day, and the utter erosion of public trust of the TFG (Transitional Federal Government.) So, however one assesses this situation, there is no escaping the writing on the wall: the lethal debacle that led to the worst misery in Somali history is coming to an end.

Now, the question is: Would that establish peace and order in Somalia ? Would that set the stage for Somalia to become, as some have been saying, a breeding ground or a safe haven for fugitive terrorists? Would that ensure security for Somalia’s neighbors and respect their territorial integrity?

Of course, it would be naïve to think that the Somali political problem, as intertwined set of complex issues as it is, could be solved the day after the Ethiopian Woyanne troops vacate Somalia . It will take a process, a painful one at that; but certainly nothing like the current nightmare.

Naturally, the insurgents will declare victory. But, they are not monolithic; neither in ideology nor in identity. They are a mixture of what’s left of the ICU (Islamic Courts Union) and its radical wing Al-Shabaab, secularist nationalists, victims of the occupation, and clan loyalists. However, it’s highly plausible for an inter-factional power struggle to ignite. One that is reminiscent of the May 2006 when ICU was fighting for its survival against a CIA-backed gang of most abhorred warlords in Mogadishu who called themselves the Alliance for Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism.

In due course, there will be peaceful surrenders, amnesty, and disarmaments.

How soon will this come to pass; and, whether or not the triumphant entity will be willing to share power; and, how susceptible would they be to radicalization depends mainly on how Washington reacts. And the last thing that Washington wants to do is to repeat the same ill-advised reaction that led to the current catastrophe in the first place.

For almost a decade, the mention of the word “Islamist” has virtually blurred the West’s sense of perspective. Everything was seen through the biased prism of “global war on terrorism” hence a blanket rejection was thrown over any form of “political Islam”- a phrase loaded that connotes something sinister and evil.

However, even in this landscape of predisposed negative attitude toward anything that mixes Islam with politics, the Islamists have an unmatched record of public service; even against the internationally recognized TFG. The former operates schools, hospitals, and for six months before the occupation removed every checkpoint in Mogadishu and brought semblance of peace.

Of course, the Islamists have made many reckless mistakes. Certain hardliners within the courts have haphazardly restricted certain liberties such as the right to watch movies and the right of women to opt out to wear hijab.

Even against this backdrop, Islamists still ride high when it comes to sincerity of action. However, they would be welcomed with vigilant skepticism and self-confidence that the will of the masses will ultimately prevail.

People look forward to a new, consensus-building leadership who puts law and order first. Leadership that would bring an end to the kidnapping, rape, human-trafficking, and indeed piracy. Leadership that would subscribes to enlightened nationalism devoid of irredentist aspiration. People will embrace pluralistic, non-puritanical Islamic governance.

Lastly, people are yearning for a visionary and a charismatic leader who would articulate a new vision and inspires the masses to dream a new Somalia.

VIDEO

Zogby

UTICA, New York – Democrat Barack Obama moved very close to a double–digit lead over Republican John McCain in the national horserace for President, continuing his slow push forward above the 50% mark, gaining 1.3 points in the last day.

McCain is slowly losing ground, having lost another 0.4 points in this latest report on the Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll.

Pollster John Zogby: “Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan’s victory over Carter — but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton’s 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans.”

The three–day rolling average poll includes 1,208 likely voters nationwide, surveyed at the rate of 400 interviews per day and was conducted Oct. 19–21, 2008. It carries a margin of error of +/– 2.9 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using live telephone operators in Zogby’s in–house call center in Upstate New York.

Daily Tracking Continues

This daily tracking telephone poll will continue each day until the Nov. 4 election. With each new day of responses that are folded into the poll, the oldest third of the survey is removed, so the poll “tracks” changes in voter attitudes following events and developments in the race. Keep up-to-date every day by visiting www.zogby.com.

By John Whitesides

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Democrat Barack Obama has expanded his national lead over Republican John McCain in the presidential race to 10 points, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 42 percent among likely U.S. voters in the latest three-day tracking poll, up from an 8-point advantage for Obama on Tuesday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

It was the third consecutive day Obama gained ground on McCain as the two begin the final sprint to the November 4 election.

“Obama just keeps growing, he has expanded his lead among almost every major voting group,” said pollster John Zogby. “McCain seems to be out of steam for the moment.”

The 10-point lead was the first time Obama’s advantage over McCain, an Arizona senator, reached double-digits in the poll. Obama’s lead had floated between 2 and 6 points in the more than two weeks of polling until stretching to 8 points on Tuesday.

Obama made gains with two key swing voting blocs. His advantage with independent voters grew to a whopping 27 points from 15 points and his edge with women voters grew to 16 points from 13.

Obama, an Illinois senator, led among all age groups and in every income group except for the most wealthy voters. He now has the support of 21 percent of self-described conservatives — his best showing with those voters.

McCain narrowly trails Obama by 2 percentage points among men and saw his lead among whites drop to 6 points from 9 points, 50 percent to 44 percent.

The poll, taken Sunday through Tuesday, showed independent Ralph Nader, Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney and Libertarian Bob Barr each registering 1 percent support.

Three percent of voters remain undecided.

The rolling tracking poll surveyed 1,208 likely voters in the presidential election. In a tracking poll, the most recent day’s results are added while the oldest day’s results are dropped to monitor changing momentum.

The president is determined by who wins the Electoral College, which has 538 members apportioned by population in each state and the District of Columbia. Electoral votes are allotted on a winner-take-all basis in all but two states, which divide them by congressional district.

(Editing by Peter Cooney)

Lydia Asghedom is an Eritrean-Ethiopian fashion model currently residing and working in Germany. The following is Lydia in her own words:

Lydia Asghedom-Teshome: I was born and raised in Addis Abeba, Ethiopia. My mother is Eritrean-Ethiopan from Asmara and my father is Italian. I grew up in Addis Ababa with my sister and grandparents and attended Greek Private school.

I migrated to San Diego at the age of 10 and joined my mother and the rest of my siblings. The reason for the move was mainly for higher education and an easy transition in getting into a College.

As a young adult, I played numerous sports such as soccer, field hockey, water polo, and track and field. But the one sport I truly enjoyed and succeeded in was wrestling.

In my junior and senior years of High School, I was ranked 3rd and 4th in the State of California and I was offered a full scholarship to attend and wrestle for Menlo College, a private business college located in Menlo Park.

In 2001, I studied Business Management and Psychology. Not only did I have a free tuition for 4-years, but I also made history by being one of the 7 women selected throughout the U.S. to be on the First Women College Wrestling Team.

It was in 2006, while living and working in San Francisco, I started modeling under Soma Model Management.

There, I began to host web shows SomaGirls.tv. I am now represented by City Model Management in San Francisco, CA.

I am currently temporarily living in Dusseldorf and represented by Divina Models Management.

I have been in over 200 fashion shows and I have done ads for AT&T, Michael Kors, and Macy’s.

I have a commercial running in U.S. as well as 4 other countries including Germany for Bare Minerals and Sheer Cover Make-up.

See more photos of Lydia here.

The Ethio-jazz artist Mulatu Astatke will present a public talk titled “Ethiopian Contributions to the Development of World Music Instruments” at the Massachussettes Institute of Technology (MIT) on Thursday, Oct. 23, 2008.

The conversation is a result of his recently completed Radcliffe Institute Fellowship at Harvard University, where he researched how to develop the krarr (a traditional Ethiopian five-string instrument) electronically, wrote an opera based on Ethiopian Coptic Church music, and wrote a book on the historical context of instruments used in the Ethiopian Coptic Church music and their development of world music.

The talk comes at the end of a two-week artist-in-residence period at MIT. Thu 7:30 p.m.

Entrance: Free.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Room 10-250
77 Massachusetts Ave.
Cambridge, MA
Tel: 617-253-2787.