UTICA, New York – Democrat Barack Obama moved very close to a double–digit lead over Republican John McCain in the national horserace for President, continuing his slow push forward above the 50% mark, gaining 1.3 points in the last day.
McCain is slowly losing ground, having lost another 0.4 points in this latest report on the Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll.
Pollster John Zogby: “Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan’s victory over Carter — but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton’s 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans.”
|
Week Three Three–Day Tracking Poll |
10–21 |
10–20 |
| Obama |
51.6% |
50.3% |
| McCain |
42.0% |
42.4% |
| Others/Not sure |
6.4% |
7.3% |
|
Week Two Three-Day Tracking Poll |
10–19 |
10–18 |
10-17 |
10-16 |
10-15 |
10-14 |
10-13 |
| Obama |
49.8% |
47.8% |
48.3% |
48.7% |
49.0% |
48.2% |
49.0% |
| McCain |
44.4% |
45.1% |
44.4% |
43.7% |
43.5% |
44.4% |
42.8% |
| Others/Not sure |
5.8% |
7.1% |
7.3% |
7.6% |
7.5% |
7.4% |
8.2% |
|
Week One Three-Day Tracking Poll |
10-12 |
10-11 |
10-10 |
10-9 |
10-8 |
10-7 |
10-6 |
| Obama |
47.9% |
48.9% |
47.6% |
47.6% |
47.8% |
47.1% |
47.7% |
| McCain |
43.6% |
42.8% |
43.8% |
43.4% |
44.2% |
45.2% |
45.3% |
| Others/Not sure |
8.5% |
8.3% |
8.6% |
9.0% |
8.0% |
7.7% |
7.0% |
Obama wins 85% support from Democrats, and 11% of Republicans.
McCain wins 83% of the Republican vote, and 10% of the Democratic vote.
The three–day rolling average poll includes 1,208 likely voters nationwide, surveyed at the rate of 400 interviews per day and was conducted Oct. 19–21, 2008. It carries a margin of error of +/– 2.9 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using live telephone operators in Zogby’s in–house call center in Upstate New York.
Daily Tracking Continues
This daily tracking telephone poll will continue each day until the Nov. 4 election. With each new day of responses that are folded into the poll, the oldest third of the survey is removed, so the poll “tracks” changes in voter attitudes following events and developments in the race. Keep up-to-date every day by visiting www.zogby.com.