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President Obama to unclench fists in the Horn of Africa

Posted on , Updated on by Elias Kifle

Barack Obama has a unique opportunity to bring something resembling stability to Africa’s Horn.

By Scott Johnson | NEWSWEEK

As a state, Somalia has racked up more failures than any other on the planet. So said Susan Rice, soon to be Barack Obama’s United Nations ambassador, in a Brookings Institution report she coauthored last year. Since then, Somalia’s troubles have only worsened: 1.3 million internally displaced people roam the country scavenging for food; the president quit last month; and hard-line Islamist militias, having already taken control of Somalia’s south and central regions, now stand poised to tighten their grip on the capital, Mogadishu. Some 10,000 innocent civilians have been killed since January 2007, pirates are terrorizing the coasts, and last month Somalia entered its 19th year without a functioning government. In many ways, Somalia is hardly a state at all.

But as a foreign-policy initiative, Somalia’s problems offer Obama a unique chance to sketch a bold path forward in the region. After the Bush administration backed the Ethiopian invasion in 2006, helping to overthrow the moderate Islamic Courts Union, Somalia descended into war, and the Bush policy radicalized an ever-larger portion of the population. But Obama, whose world view embraces the idea of talking to one’s enemies, could shift course on this policy failure and increase stability by re-engaging with the Islamists, and in particular with the young fighters who make up the ranks of al-Shabab, the Islamists who have been gaining strength over the last two years and continue to drag Somalia further into chaos.

The window of opportunity for Obama is small and fragile. But two things have happened in Somalia that could make the task easier. First, the hated Ethiopian occupation of Somalia that fueled the growth of al-Shabab is over. Second, Abdullah Yusuf resigned in December as president, paving the way for more moderate and inclusive figures to have greater say. Still, Obama’s policy prescriptions would have to be specific, but not overstated. He could temporarily suspend U.S military C-130 flights over Somalia, now a near-constant presence, thereby sending a message that a future policy will not have as its central piece a military component that alienates the very people America needs to bring to the table. Obama could also consider suspending al-Shabab from the terror list temporarily to prove that, as he said in his inaugural speech, America will hold out its hand if its enemies “unclench their fists.” A third path would be to open back-channel negotiations with as many hard-line factions as necessary to bring them into talks. Key to any strategy would be a quiet outreach effort to Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys, considered the father of Somalia’s Islamist movement and likely sufficiently powerful to bring enough radicals to heel to make any diplomacy worthwhile. Finally, as Rice hinted in her confirmation hearings, America needs to begin to fashion a regional approach that would address the longstanding border dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea as part of any move to end Somalia’s isolation.
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It won’t be easy. Al-Shabab poses urgent security concerns to the United States and many of Somalia’s neighbors. Some of the group’s hard-line leaders have connections to Al Qaeda. More worryingly, Somalia has started to attract American jihadists, including several from Minnesota who traveled there recently to fight. An unknown number may still be training in Shabab training camps in the south, and it’s unclear whether their long-term goals lie in Somalia or back in Minnesota. Yet Obama, already beset by doubts about his Muslim heritage, isn’t likely to make conciliatory talks with Islamists in Africa his first move. “He would be walking into a trap if he did anything that could lead to charges of being soft on terror,” says Sally Healy, a Somalia expert at Chatham House.

But the potential rewards of such a strategy are tantalizing. The Bush administration made a policy out of talking to its enemies in Iraq, including many who had killed American soldiers, and as a result Iraq is calmer and more stable. With two wars already on his plate, Obama would do well to quell a rising storm in Africa’s Horn, and the sooner the radicals are tamed, the less likely it is that they’ll continue to splinter into the kinds of factions that could eventually return Somalia to the days when warlords ruled the streets. The alternative to engagement, says Rashid Abdi of the International Crisis Group’s Somalia team, is that “by the end of the year, we could be talking about over 100 armed groups in Somalia.” A further descent into warlordism is likely only to help the spread of radical Islam in the region. So while few doubt that a strategy of engaging with the Islamists could be risky, for Somalia and the rest of the Horn the riskiest option may also be the best.

(With Jason McLure in Addis Ababa)

9 thoughts on “President Obama to unclench fists in the Horn of Africa”

  1. We should not be so optimistic about Obama`s help for the Horn of Africa.
    We already see who are going to be responsible for the horn under Obama, the friends of the corrupted nazi/facist dictators in Ethiopia. We cannot rely on Hilary or S Rice bothe were not friends of Ethiopia, on the contrary, they belong to the corrupted groups.

    The only hope is the people of Ethiopia must get rid of fear, cowardness, and leave the culture of begging for eveerything. Ethiopia must fight for their freedom like other people, Palestines, Iraqis, Afgans and mm.

    The pproblem and enemy of Ethiopians is fear, weakness, corruption and reliance on others.

  2. This is a useless analysis. This guy doesn`t know what alshabab is doing right now. In Kismayo, Alshabab stoned a young girl to death just because of she was forcefully raped by two islamic millitias. So, how come a person with normal mind suggest a `kind`treatment for Alshabab?

  3. Aba Jaffar Aba Gobbu says: “The pproblem and enemy of Ethiopians is fear, weakness, corruption and reliance on others.”
    Aba jafer, We have blood brothers by the far north who are telling and showing us we can solve our own problem, Eritrea. Canada, the number one ally of USA, are preparing themselves from Obamas USA economy recovery initiative not to be under their expense. For Obama USA is first and He is not ready to organize Ethiopia and compromise exploiting American/IMF companies in Ethiopia. TPLF is here to stay under OBama. The somalia problem will evaporate when the Cancer TPLF is gone but no American want to admit it but they are willing to do some paint job, free Birtukan. It is like J. Fraser(US Africa affairs)were bragging how USA help release The oppositions back in 2005. Now we know the truth and OBAMA will doing it all over again”Free Birtukan.” Birtukan and her oppositions should step down if they want to help Ethiopia.
    Go G7
    Cheers!!!

  4. Fascist meles are you preparing to be slave for Obama too? Unbelievable, it doesn’t mater if Obama supporting you or not your time is almost over. I am telling you when that day come; you will end up in prison. You are not going to retired peace fully like gorge bush dose. At lest gorge bush loved by half of American people. But fascist like you will pay a big price by the end of the day. The incent millions amhara people you murdered are crying for justices. You stupid fascist meles see what the western did to you? After they make you to comate genocide against your own people they lift you in the middle of no where. No wonder you start bagging your brother fascist issayas for peace. If you stile trust the western instead of your own people, mark my word Obama will use you and he will throw you like a condom. Like gorge bush did. But who cares? Band like you deserve that kind treatment. I don’t blame the outsiders it is not their baseness to care for Ethiopia.

  5. We supposed to know that President Obama can not liberate our country and we have to act like free people not like beggars. Look at Somalians they liberated their country you can see today’s news that they already captured the fragile government seat Baidabo. At lest we have to learn some thing from these people.

  6. Add to comment #1 above, God forbid, but rumour has it the notorious Gayle Smith might come to the fold whose love to Weyane is an open secret! She is reported to replace another shame of Africa in Jendayi Frazer!

  7. People!

    Believe in yourselves, believe in your popular resistance against foreign involvement and dependency. Horn of Africa, slowly but surely will liberate itself from bigotry, servitude and dependency.
    Depend on your own resources than expecting from forces across the ocean, who happened to be the root causes anyways!

    Peace in Horn of Africa, by Africans and for Africans!

  8. This analysis is really absurd. Not only is it incorrect, it places too much emphasis on Ambassador-designate Susan Rice. President Obama’s knowledge on Africa is actually very limited. Ambassador-designate Rice and Secretary Clinton are very hawkish people, they love wars and confrontations. I don’t think we can place much hope for the Obama Administration to solve Somalia’s problems.

  9. More music to Iran’s ears, President Isaias Afwerki added: “The nuclear progress of the Islamic Republic of Iran is a source of joy and happiness to us, and we believe that access to nuclear energy is Iran’s legal and undeniable right and we support Iran’s stance in this ground.” Sweetening the harmony, Isaias concluded: “The United States does not have the authority to decide which countries should enjoy this technology.”

    In November 2007, Eritrea renewed its support for Iran’s “peaceful” nuclear program, this time in a statement attributed to Eritrea’s Foreign Minister, Osman Saleh.

    This culminated in presidential visit to Tehran in May 20, 2008: President Isaias Afwerki was given an audience with President Mahmud Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini. Ahmadinejad said that there would be “no limit” in the bilateral relationship between Eritrea and Iran. Investment, trade, and technology transfer agreements were signed.

    The relationship has been solidifying with Iran’s ambassador to Eritrea, Reza Ameri, having frequent meetings with Eritrean president Isaias Afwerki.

    Source: Awate.com

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