Amy Dominello | WJBF-TV
The days of the solid Republican South may be ending. Not only are Barack Obama and John McCain battling over Virginia and North Carolina, some polls show the presidential race also is close in Georgia, a scenario considered unthinkable earlier this year.
Incumbent Republican senators in Georgia, Kentucky and North Carolina are struggling. And throughout the South, Democratic candidates are making inroads.
Political scientists say several demographic changes are at play, newcomers moving to parts of the South have changed its political landscape as has the anticipated swell of young people and African Americans at the polls.
Until the mid-1960s, the South voted reliably Democratic in presidential contests. But many Southerners during that time became disenchanted with Democrats’ views on civil rights, beginning a turn to the Republican Party that the GOP capitalized on.
One key to the Democrats’ predicted success this year, political analysts and strategists say, is dissatisfaction among voters with the Republican Party.
President Bush, who won the South twice, is unpopular throughout the country. Republicans are a “bruised brand” this year, said Dave “Mudcat” Saunders, a Democratic strategist in Roanoke, Va., who worked for John Edwards and Virginia Senate candidates. That created an opening for Democrats in the South.
“Don’t think it’s something that we did, because it’s not,” he said. “It’s what the Republicans did.”
The GOP may also have taken the Southern vote for granted, said Chuck Dunn, the dean of the school of government at Regent University in Virginia Beach, Va.
“Republicans didn’t think about how they needed to build,” he said.
Obama’s strategy has been to play offense in key Southern states, rather than cede the region to McCain.
“They’re denying the Republicans this huge block of Southern votes,” said Merle Black, a politics and government professor at Emory University who specializes in the politics of the South.
Beyond dissatisfaction with Republicans and campaign strategy, the electorate in the South is changing.
Population growth in key urban areas…northern Virginia, Research Triangle Park in Raleigh, N.C., and the Atlanta metro region…has brought in voters from the liberal-leaning Northeast and changed the makeup of the electorate.
“As people move in from the North, they’re not tied to the customs of the South politically and otherwise,” Dunn said.
Conversely, Republicans are doing better in states like Alabama that haven’t changed in demographics as dramatically, said Stephen Borelli, an associate professor of political science at the University of Alabama.
In addition, young voters, many of whom registered in droves this year as Democrats, may not be as tied to the Republican Party as their older relatives.
“Younger voters are much more open to other ideas and candidates,” Dunn said.
While younger voters have tended not to show up on Election Day, they are voting in early voting locations, said Charles Bullock, a political science professor at the University of Georgia who specializes in Southern politics.
Also aiding Obama and Democrats is the surge in black voters who are largely supporting Obama in states like North Carolina, Virginia and Georgia. Republicans may not have a strong enough hold on white voters to counteract that, Bullock said.
“As you get a more diverse electorate, that means you have to get a larger portion of white voters,” he said.
In Senate and House contests, Democrats are doing a better job of finding candidates in the South who appeal to white voters because they are socially conservative on issues such as guns, gay marriage and abortion, Borelli said.
Analysts predict Democrats will gain at least two Senate seats in the South, Virginia and likely North Carolina, bringing their total to seven of the 22 seats in Southern states. Democrats are expected to gain some Southern seats in the House as well. Experts say it’s much harder to determine voting trends from House races because they often turn on local issues.
Despite the predicted gains, McCain will likely win eight to 10 Southern states and Southern Republicans will still outnumber Democrats in Congress.
While it’s too soon to say whether the South is becoming more Democratic, the party is developing a base for future elections, no matter Tuesday’s results, political scientists said.
“Some of that new money and organization they have just doesn’t disappear,” Borelli said.
And that means Republicans and Democrats may find themselves much more competitive in the South, but only if Democrats take advantage of that newfound support.
“Reagan Democrats are begging to come home,” Saunders said. “I know Barack Obama will let them back in. The question is, will the national Democratic Party let them back in the tent?”
(Contact Amy Dominello at [email protected])