John Podhoretz, Commentary Magazine
This is why it might happen. Not saying it will.
1) One poll has undecided voters at 14 percent on the last weekend, which means most of them probably really aren’t undecided, that they are either going to stay home or vote preponderantly for McCain and pull McCain across the finish line.
2) Most pollsters are claiming the electorate this year is six to nine points more Democratic than it is Republican. That would be an unprecedented shift from four years ago, when the electorate was evenly divided, 37-37, Republican and Democratic, and a huge shift from two years ago, when it was 37-33 Democratic. A shift of this size didn’t even happen after Watergate.
3) Obama frequently outpolled his final result in primaries, which might have many causes but might also indicate that he has difficulty closing the sale.
4) The argument in the past two weeks has shifted, such that many undecided voters who are now paying attention are hearing about Obama’s redistributionist tendencies at exactly the right moment for McCain.
5) The tightening in several daily tracking polls indicates a modest surge on McCain’s part that could continue through the weekend until election day. If he is behind by three or four points right now, a slow and steady move upward could push him past the finish line in first place.
6) In terms of the electoral map, the energy and focus McCain is directing at Pennsylvania could pay huge dividends if he pulls it off. If he prevails there, it might follow that the message will work in Ohio too. And if he wins Pennsylvania and Ohio, he will probably win even if he loses Virginia and Colorado.
7) Early voting numbers are not oceanic by any means, which may indicate the degree of enthusiasm for Obama among new voters is not something new but something entirely of a par with past candidates, like John Kerry. And they show more strength on the Republican side than most people expected.
8 ) What happened with the Joe the Plumber story is that Obama has now been effectively outed as a liberal, not a moderate; and because liberalism is still less popular than conservatism, that’s not the best place for Obama to be.
9) The fire lit under Obama’s young supporters in the winter was largely due to Iraq and his opposition to the war. The stunning decline in violence and the departure of Iraq from the front page has put out the fire, to the extent that, like the young woman who made a sexy video calling herself Obama Girl and then didn’t vote in the New York primary because she went to get a manicure, they might not want to stand on line on Tuesday.
10) Hispanic voters, who are always underpolled, know and appreciate McCain from his stance on immigration and will vote for him in larger numbers than anyone anticipates.
There you have it. It’s admittedly not the strongest case, and the idea that McCain will win on Tuesday is hard to square with the fact there isn’t a single poll that has him in the lead five days out. But unexpected things do happen in politics every election.
11 thoughts on “10 reasons why McCain might win”
These theories are quite ridiculous !!!.
Number 11. The republicans have shown in the last two presidential elections that they control the vote counting apparatus and can steal the election. They also have the backing of the supreme court.
this is bull shi*t analysis. make no sense even to third grader…
Wake up…stop spreading rumors … its too late for Republicans and Mr. McCain… who knows nothing and as dumb as Mr. Bush… expect for talking about his prison days… there are thousands of other POWS.
Ten Reasons Why Sen.McCain Will Definitely Lose The Race to the White House:
1. He does not have any solution to offer to revive the country’s economy.
2. He is following the same path as W. Bush in the Iraq’s war, the war on terror, including that in Somalia which, for the most part is misguided and lacks public support both domestically and abroad.
3. He has as his running mate a woman who has no experience in the international politics, a subject vital for US to remain a dominant player in the world affairs.
4. US financial state is in shambles and the ordinary,hard-working, middle class Americans are feeling the heat.
5. Unemployment rate is at the highest since early seventies. The Republicans under McCain, are not ready to alleviate the problem or give the people tax breaks.
6. US’s foreign policy under McCain will not be any different from that of George W. Bush. A failed policy that invites anger and disengagement with other nations.
7. The majority of Americans support Barack Obama’s plans whether on issues of the economy, healthcare, education or foreign policy.
8. McCain is spending a great deal of his campaign attacking Obama; While Obama is talking about issues that matter to American people the most.
9. Most Americans desire to live in peace with other nations which is in line with Obama’s stand.
10. Most Americans have had enough of the failed US domestic and foreign policy under Bush Administration. For them McCain and Bush are just two faces of the same coin. Hence, they are ready for a change.
If that idiot. John McCain wins it will be a stolen election or Americans are as stupid as i think they are.
what a drivelly pile of wishful thinking. if you really think you are clever enough to see that the mccain odds are better than people think, just grow a pair and bet a chunk of money on the election, instead of wasting our time
let us be honest,this election is not over.
Do you guys know what happen to Oprah Winfrey?She voted but there was a problem with voting machine and she has to cast her ballot twice because the first trial was not holding.
I assume there will be similar problems to other voters too and that may cost against either of the candidates and that inturn may
change the result in an unexpected way.
Guys, I appreciate if American people are really upto demonstrate their real behaviour at this special moment. Most polisters and white analysts have been providing various reasons that might favour McCain’s victory in the forthcoming election. But I would like to sum up this: At a time when the conservative republicans led the USA for the last 8 years conducting unacceptable invasion of sovereign nations, duplicating terrorism all over the world, and leading America and the world are in the worst economic turmoil, etc etc. If American people (especially Whites) still vote for McCain, it clearly demonstrates that is America is the worst imperial racist on this glob. There will be no place for them to talk about equality. If that happens, the Black Americans have to devot their time, material and lives to legitimize a self-governed state with in America by fighting for autonomous state in the North American continent.
Some of the scenarios mentioned in the article are true and may end up being the main factors for John’s victory. There is one group of voters that was not mentioned in the article just because the group in not vocal or suppressed by the loud and enthusiastic support for Obama. It exists in the black community and can make a critical difference. There is a small but already decided group of black voters united around the conviction of such media notables as Tavis Smiley and a few others. These voters are not very vocal but they think Obama’s election is not a genuine black victory. They see a lot of empty and unpractical promises by Obama and they are concerned the consequences of that on the moral young supporters when all these promises are not fulfilled. They also honestly believe that Obama is not from a generation of share-croppers, cotton-pickers and unconscionable slavery. The other group mentioned in the article is the Latina voters. I think this group has already got what is want to hear from McCain and from all its endeavor, it feels more comfortable to be associated with McCain and alike not Obama or anyone like him. It will be a very interesting election and we should all go out and vote.
In the meantime, we should be all civilized in our choice of words on this esteemed website. Comments like Andinet’s and Mark James’ are uncalled for and should not be allowed to be spewed around on our face. I am confident in our good brother Elias’ watchful eyes to catch and delete such filthy and uncultured terms. I take this website as Rated ‘G’ and read most of its articles with my family and kids.
I am convinced that the last two Presidential election were stolen. If McCain wins this one, I don’t think I will ever vote again.