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Obama Hasn’t Closed the Sale – Karl Rove

Both candidates continue to tinker with their strategies.

By KARL ROVE, The Wall Street Journal

In the campaign’s final two weeks, voters will take a last serious look at both presidential candidates. The outcome of the race isn’t cast in stone yet.

Barack Obama holds a 7.3% lead in the Real Clear Politics average of all polls, but the latest Gallup tracking poll reveals that there are nearly twice as many undecided voters this year than there were in the last presidential election. The Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP poll (which was closest to the mark in predicting the 2004 outcome — 0.4% off the actual result) now says this is a three-point race.

This week also brought a reminder that Sen. Obama hasn’t closed the sale. The Washington Post/ABC poll found 45% of voters still don’t think he’s qualified to be president, about the same number who doubted his qualifications in March.

This is seven points more than George W. Bush’s highest reading in 2000 and the worst since Michael Dukakis’s 56% unqualified rating in 1988. It explains why Mr. Obama has ignored Democratic giddiness and done two things to keep victory from slipping away.

First, he is using his money to try to keep John McCain from gaining traction. The Obama campaign raised $67 million in September and may be on track to raise $100 million in October. Sen. McCain opted last month for roughly $85 million in public financing, giving him less than half of Mr. Obama’s funds for the campaign’s final two months. Even with robust Republican National Committee fund raising to augment his spending, Mr. McCain is at a severe financial disadvantage.

So Mr. Obama is spending $35 million on TV this week versus the McCain/RNC total of $17 million. Mr. Obama is outspending Mr. McCain on TV in Virginia by a ratio of 4 to 1, in Florida by 3 to 1, and in Missouri and Nevada by better than 2 to 1. The disparity is likely to grow in the campaign’s final weeks.

Money alone, however, won’t decide the contest. John Kerry and the Democrats outspent Mr. Bush and the GOP in 2004 by $121 million and still lost.

Mr. Obama’s other strategy is to do all he can to look presidential, including buying very expensive half-hour slots to address the country next week. He wants to give a serious, Oval-Office type address. This is smart. People appreciate Mr. Obama’s empathy on the economy, but as they take a long look at what he wants to do about it, they will be less impressed, especially if Mr. McCain draws sharp contrasts with clear policy proposals.

Mr. Obama is trying to make the case that his lack of experience or record should not disqualify him. But in doing so, he seems to recognize that the U.S. is still a center-right country. His TV ads promise tax cuts and his radio ads savage Mr. McCain’s health-care plan as a tax increase. It’s a startling campaign conversion for the most liberal member of the Senate. We’ll know on Election Day if he is able to get away with it.

Similarly, Mr. McCain appears to be making three important course corrections. First, he and Gov. Sarah Palin are sharpening their stump speeches so their sound bites come off well on TV. Gone are offhand remarks and awkward comments read from notes perched on a podium. In are teleprompters and carefully crafted arguments. Mr. McCain is also more at ease than before and has an ebullient, come-from-behind underdog optimism that will serve him well in the final weeks.

Second, Mr. McCain is shaping a story line that draws on well-founded concerns about Mr. Obama’s lack of record or experience. Mr. McCain is also bowing to reality and devoting most of his time to the economy. His narrative is he’s the conservative reformer who’ll lead and work hard to get things done, while Mr. Obama is the tax-and-spend liberal who’s unprepared to lead and unwilling to act.

Mr. McCain is hitting Mr. Obama for wanting to raise taxes in difficult economic times, especially on small business and for the purpose of redistributing income, and for having lavish spending plans at a time when the economy is faltering. He’s criticizing Mr. Obama for lingering on the sidelines while Mr. McCain dove in to help pass a rescue plan, necessary no matter how distasteful. And he’s attacking Mr. Obama for not joining the fight in 2005 when reformers like Mr. McCain tried to rein in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Mr. McCain’s other adjustment is his schedule. His campaign understands the dire circumstances it faces and is narrowing his travels almost exclusively to Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado and Nevada. If he carries those states, while losing only Iowa and New Mexico from the GOP’s 2004 total, Mr. McCain will carry 274 Electoral College votes and the White House. It’s threading the needle, but it’s come to that.

This task, while not impossible, will be difficult. By mid-September, the McCain camp was slightly ahead in the polls. Then came the financial crisis. The past month has taken an enormous toll on the McCain campaign.

Whether it can find the right formula in the next 19 days to dig out is a question. If Mr. McCain succeeds, he will have engineered the most impressive and improbable political comeback since Harry Truman in 1948. But having to reach back more than a half-century for inspiration is not the place campaign managers want to be now.
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Mr. Rove is a former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush. He served as Senior Advisor to President George W. Bush from 2000–2007 and Deputy Chief of Staff from 2004–2007. At the White House he oversaw the Offices of Strategic Initiatives, Political Affairs, Public Liaison, and Intergovernmental Affairs and was Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy, coordinating the White House policy making process. Before Karl became known as “The Architect” of President Bush’s 2000 and 2004 campaigns, he was president of Karl Rove + Company, an Austin-based public affairs firm that worked for Republican candidates, nonpartisan causes, and nonprofit groups. His clients included over 75 Republican U.S. Senate, Congressional and gubernatorial candidates in 24 states, as well as the Moderate Party of Sweden.

2 thoughts on “Obama Hasn’t Closed the Sale – Karl Rove

  1. I am telling you that if this guy does not have a comfortable 2-digit lead like 14-15% now, I don’t think he is going to win. There is a wide undercurrent discomfort toward his seemingly soft foreign policy. With all this debate and pundits ‘analysis’, the American people have basic doubts with both candidates if anyone of them would be able to solve this wrenching economic problem. In order to solve this dangerous downturn, the next president must be the one who will be able to gather the best economics minds in the country who will work for and with him in complete and utter loyalty. There are substantial undecided voters across the color line. There are potentially formidable group in the African-American community around such personalities as Tavis Smiley who feel Barack does not represent their community color proof. Their outspoken reason may be different such as policy disagreement but the real reason is just that. Remember this election can be decided by a few thousand votes. If you look back at history of election where a black candidate’s single or lower teen percentage lead in the polls did not turn out to be as that after the votes were cast and counted.

    McCain also has his own set of problems who is known as maverick to his party for a while. It might have been a workable dissent for the movers and shakers of the republican party before and during the primary season. But that may have changed after he picked Sarah Palin as his running mate. He did not consult such election schemers as the very author of this article – Karl Rowe and others like him. Can you believe Karl Rove is predicting Barack’s election? He can’t seek the help of a seating president for obvious reasons we all know. I think the final straw that may bring down his chance of being elected is his choice of a running mate with out consulting his own party notables. Remember those conservative pundits such as Rush and others did not like him at all during the primary season. Rush and the other female conservative talk show host were urging party affiliates to cross the line and vote for Hillary. Remember. Now this may balance Barack’s chance of being elected with the dissent he is facing in the black community for reasons I indicated above. The bottom line: If Barack is not leading by 13-15 points in the polls now, he may end up losing or win by a 1-3 percentage only. And there are plenty of members of the congress waiting to bedevil him in every domestic and foreign policy he is going to take. And that will bring the government to a stand still. They will make his presidential life so miserable to a level that he may end up being one of the most inefficient presidents any where. I don’t he will be able to maintain the ‘loyalty’ he has now after the election.

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