9 thoughts on “EPPF on the move”

1. well done EPPF. I think they should change website to easier domain. In addition to this they have to start radio station here in DC. I talk to many people and nobody know them and their website. They have to introduce themselves and their website to the people. They have to work hard.

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2. GOOd news

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3. Folks,

   We do not believe clandestine, armed violent organizations will work for justice. They might tell us that the violence is to bring justice, but we could not find evidence to support it. In fact, resorting to violence is a sign of wholesale rejection of law and justice. Genbot 7 is illegal organization in the country because it uses “all inclusive means” to overthrow the TPLF/EPRDF government. Incontestably, “all inclusive means” suggests the use of arms. We doubt if it is true, but Genbot 7 claims it is mobilizing the masses in a clandestine organization. To start with, we do not understand the need for such an organization because there already exists one. To a large measure, the program of Genbot 7 goes in line with the memorandum of understanding of the Alliance for Freedom and Democracy (AFD), an organization created three years ago by the OLF, ONLF, EPPF, etc. The AFD was later joined by the CUD (international) in the U.S. The place of Genbot 7 is with AFD and, we hope, it will be received by the AFD members with fanfare and jubilation. With the recent “shake up” within the OLF to meet the demands of Genbot 7, the way for a cooperation in politics, military, intelligence and diplomacy is wide open. The only problem will be the inherent undemocratic nature of Genbiot 7 which requires to be joined by other organizations rather than it joins an existing one. Furthermore, Genbot 7 wants to be joined by others in its own terms such as approval of the unity of the country. The OLF and ONLF will laugh at this type of suggestion since they will not negotiate the political stand they had advanced for decades. Unity of the “empire” is something they will not endorse. They might probably join a temporary, broad and loose front to conduct war for “democracy”, but, even for that, in their own terms rather than that of Genbot 7. For them, democracy in this context is not an ultimate goal to work for but a means to facilitate separation. Genbot 7 leaders are delusional if they think that democracy will check separatism and then render it unnecessary. The truth is far from this. If separatism can be solved by democracy, Europeans would have solved it long ago. Think of the United kingdom (in the case of Northern Ireland), France (in the case of Corsica), Spain (in the case of Basque), Greece and Turkey (in the case of Cyprus) and several others. None of these countries succeeded to check separatism using democracy. Opposition parties in these countries never joined separatist organizations to defeat governments; on the contrary, they resoundingly rejected separatism. It is doubtful if leaders of Genbot 7 are smarter than leaders of opposition parties in Europe. Allying with separatist organizations will make Genbot 7 a promoter of interest of separatist organizations rather than promote unity of the country. The OLF and ONLF will be the main beneficiaries of any arrangement with Genbot 7. Just two weeks ago, the leader of Genbot 7, in a radio inaugural speech said once TPLF/EPRDF are removed, we will solve our differences with armed groups through dialogue. If dialogue does not work, the people will make a determination. Nobody knows what this determination involves and which people makes what determination. Genbot 7 also says it works to remove TPLF/EPRDF and not to take power. It has no answer for the big question: who takes power? What it wants is to polarize people, pulverize society and create a situation for power vacuum. Once that is done, armed groups will sort it out. It is a repeat of the mistake of the student movement of the 1960s, 70s and after. The new generation should refuses to follow the path that led to national disasters.

   Genbot 7 does not see the risk the occupation of Somalia poses to the country. In fact, it is the most fundamental problem we face right now. We appreciate that the opposition is urging the government to withdraw its army from Somalia. The opposition says that the cost in human lives, money and materials is too much. We wonder how they failed to realize that occupation of other country and people is wrong. It seems that if the cost is less, they might allow the government to stay. We feel that they should insist that the occupation is illegal and the government must unconditionally withdraw its army. Whenever Somalia is the issue, we all should remember the occupation of our country by the Italians. The suggestion that we will be in danger if the army withdraws from Somalia is a propaganda ploy. Given the large army the country has, it can defend itself from any attack that might come. As in everything else, we see that the government is not listening. If the government thinks the country is secure by occupying Somalia, the false sense of security will begin to crumble soon. A paper smuggled to the country tells a grim story. Not long ago, a high level international conference with delegates from the Middle East, North Africa, the Sudan and Djibouti was held in Asmara. In that conference, an academic from a university in North Africa with remarkable expertise on contemporary political history of the region has made a fascinating presentation. It was about Somalia’s lost chances to reconstitute herself as a state. He started by discussing the occupation of Afghanistan by the USSR in the 1980s and its adverse effects reverberating to this day. He said the USSR has disintegrated and Afghanistan is ungovernable. It also poses a serious danger to the security of the Western world. He explained how the Soviet Union that existed for seventy years collapsed after a decade of occupation of a much poorer, weaker and smaller neighbor. He did not claim the collapse resulted directly from the occupation, but suggested that it is one of the main reasons for the collapse. His guess is Ethiopia might as well collapse and give way to a number of new states due to occupation of Somalia. His point is both the USSR and Ethiopia are lured by their enemies to take harder positions on their neighbors and precipitate their own demise. In the case of the USSR, the plan of the U.S. government was to deliberately draw the USSR to its own Vietnam and bring the cold war to an end. With modern armaments and technical support from the U.S. and Europe and financial support from Saudi Arabia and others, the Afghan resistance prevailed over the larger, well trained and equipped and disciplined Soviet army. At the end of the war, the moderate Afghan resistance lost power to Islamic fundamentalists. The plan to end the cold war worked but Afghanistan remains a problem to this day.

   Our neighbors in North Africa and the Middle East started a covert project to experiment the USSR – Afghan disaster on us years before the Ethiopian army entered into Somalia. Eritrea is chosen to replicate the role of Pakistan in the sub – region. Thanks to its creativity and long experience in such matters, Eritrea is not hampered from active involvement in the project because it shares no boundary with Somalia. The smuggled paper we mentioned earlier carries a wealth of information. The covert project was thorough with its background study of the USSR and Ethiopia and persuasive with its inferences. Leaving aside the differences between the USSR and Ethiopia the paper highlights, the following summarizes its inferences. The situation in the USSR before and during the occupation of Afghanistan resembles the situation in Ethiopia during and after the occupation of Somalia. Like the USSR, Ethiopia has a constitution that recognizes separatism. Like the USSR, Ethiopia has a government that uses divide and rule as a means to stay in power. Like the USSR, Ethiopia has a government that feeds differences than similarities among ethno – linguistic groups. Like the USSR, Ethiopia has a government whose relation with the west is unpredictable. As in the USSR, a power vacuum will be created if the TPLF/EPRDF falls due to violence. The paper also mentions factors that never existed in the USSR that makes the collapse of Ethiopia more possible. Unlike in the USSR, there are separatist organizations with decades of existence in Ethiopia ready to seize the opportunity and declare independence. Unlike in the USSR, there is a government with dubious plan of separatism if removed from power by force. It is further mentioned that these circumstances will make it easier to create a wide separatist front that cannot be defeated by unity forces. Several minor factors which feed this situation are added too. We are shocked by the paper’s unexpected revelations. We believe that the attempt to replicate the USSR – Afghan conflict in the Horn region is an active . The paper concludes by justifying why the project should be advanced aggressively. It says Muslims in Somalia are occupied by Christians as Muslim Afghans were occupied by Communists and atheists. These are infidels with different stripes. So, no wonder why Somalis and Afghanis turned to Islam as organizing force to fight infidel occupiers. Ethiopia is an aggressive force bent on conquering and occupying Somalia as the USSR was regarding Afghanistan; both are not in legitimate wars to defend their populations or borders. Somalis are fighting Ethiopia to force it withdraw from their land with the support of states from the Middle East, North Africa and beyond as the Afghans did. Ethiopia unheeded the warning of the international community (including that of the U.S.) not to invade Somalia and withdraw once it has invaded. The USSR had also unheeded the call of the international community to withdraw from Afghanistan. It is now Ethiopia against dozens of wealthy Muslim and secular states. The fact that USSR and Ethiopia entered into war they cannot win is positive from their enemies points of view. They are asking to imagine how the world would have looked like if the USSR had defeated and annexed Afghanistan. With the USSR taking the Persian Gulf, the cold war would have intensified and possibly triggered the third world war. As suggested to them recently, Ethiopia and Kenya might be considering to divide and annex Somalia.We feel that even if the war ends by Ethiopia’s withdrawal or defeat, Somalia will not be divided and annexed. In fact, once Ethiopia withdraws – defeated or otherwise – Somalia will emerge a formidable force to effectively undo Ethiopia.

   Genbot 7 might have deliberately ignored this. In the next room where the international conference we mentioned earlier was held, the OLF and ONLF were finalizing a newly discovered strategy to achieve independence. The EPPF was not invited even as an observer. Never before had the OLF and ONLF came up with such a strategy. The strategy focused on the existing three models in the Horn of Africa itself. First, they saw the Somalia model. This model favours the dissolution of a central government, its infrastructure, defense and police. The OLF and ONLF agreed that this model will create a power vacuum which makes automatic separation possible. The EPLF had used it to achieve its goal of separation. As witnessed in Somalia, however, the problem with this model is lack of recognition of the new state or states by the international community. In the case of Eritrea, it was the TPLF/EPRDF government that paved the way for its recognition. The OLF and ONLF acknowledged the effectiveness of this model but also its shortcomings in the absence of a central government that will open the way for recognition. About a decade ago, the TPLF/EPRDF was the most favoured government for this model, but it is no more. Now, their hope is a transitional government that will replace the TPLF/EPRDF and pave the way for referendum on self determination and separation. The nucleus of such a transitional government is the Alliance for Freedom and Democracy which Genbot 7 is poised to join. There is fear though. If the Alliance fails to take power at the center, an extreme right wing Amara-Tigre power might effectively turn the Oromo – Somali struggle for separation way back to its enfancy. Second, they considered the Ethiopia model. This model is closely related to the first. It relies on the existence of a central government in Ethiopia that favours the separation of certain peoples and not others. The basis of the model is the separation of Eritrea some fifteen years ago. That separation was justified by the TPLF/EPRDF government using history, politics and choice of people. The same government, however, refused to extend such justifications to Oromos and Somalis. In effect, with Eritrea out, it fought hard to keep the rest of the country together. The most preferred government for the OLF and ONLF is a prototype of the TPLF of the 1980s and 1990s. As said earlier, one such candidate is the AFD. Such a government, with Oromos and Somalis out, will recognize the separated states while closing the way for other states not to do the same – at least until the separated states are recognized by the international community. Furthermore, it will apply force to quash local resistance and opposition to the separation. Third, they discussed the Sudan model. This model recognizes the right to a referendum on separation. In the Sudan, an agreement was signed between the central government and group(s) fighting for separation. The agreement included the right to conduct a referendum after a fixed number of years. Two conditions were met for the agreement to be signed. First, the balance of power in the battle field favoured the separatists. Second, the international community was angry with the Sudan. In fact, it threatened the Sudanese government with sanctions for genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. On the bases of this agreement, southern Sudan will hold a referendum in a couple of years to determine its future. The ONLF actively promotes this model. However, it has failed to tip the balance of force in its favour. As observed in the past few months, the international community was angry with the TPLF/EPRDF government. It even started talking about the commission of genocide, war crimes or crimes against humanity in the region. It might take sometime before the ONLF makes a break – through using this model. At the end, both the OLF and ONLF agreed to pursue all the models as the situation permits.

   If Genbot 7’s “all inclusive struggle” is to translate into reality, no where other than the Amara region is the most conducive one. The guess is that Genbot 7 is already connected the EPPF – an Amara armed group in the region. The group is officially backed by our tiny neighbor to the north – Eritrea. Such an armed adventure is more riskier than can be imagined. Some years ago, Gamada said the following on this same page. ” … For lack of an inclusive political system, the country seems to drift apart by wrong unofficial alliances and isolationist strategies. Except one, none of us in this (discussion) group belongs to the Amara ethnic group. But anything that brings Amaras and Tigreans at loggerheads terrifies me. The north of the country was and still is the main force determining the future of the country. From their general political disposition and violent practices observed over decades, it seems that they are not ready to change the business of politics. First, think of Eritreans who left the country after decades of unimaginable destructive civil war that left themselves and us under bad governments and a medieval type of economic and social situation. Second, take the Tigreans. Northerners themselves, they fought for decades and again left themselves and the rest of the country in bad situation. It does not matter whether the two wars were fought at the same time; their effects were devastating. Now, embittered by the brutal and deliberate exclusion from the political process by the TPLF, Amaras seem to have raised arms. We have heard that a considerable number of people are joining an armed group in the Amara region and other areas in the country and their ranks are growing fast. They are politically, financially, materially, technically and diplomatically supported by Eritrea and underground organizations both in and out of the country. Local urban guerrillas whose emergence and persistence indicate lack of accommodation have become part of life. Given their history, I would guess that the third emerging violent force in the north will fundamentally change the country as EPLF and TPLF did. Probably sooner than might be expected. If you contrast these series of violence originating in the north to draw and redraw the country’s political configuration, you will curiously observe that people in the south, east and west are still fledgling to emerge as political forces. Despite decades of existence, the OLF and ONLF have not succeeded to do what the northerners did and continue to do in a relatively short time. We are southerners and the idea here is not to present ourselves as politically weak. The truth is that we tend to be less violent compared to northerners. So, I am just questioning why our way of life in the west, south and east is not emulated by northerners. The TPLF/EPRDF want to monopolize violence and it seems they have not achieved it. We do not understand why the TPLF/EPRDF are unwilling to come up with some kind of comprehensive peace strategy to involve all stakeholders in the country’s political life.” Given the newfound militantism and courage of the OLF and ONLF due to the possible alliance with Genbot 7, the country should prepare itself for a tripartite ethno-military entity. If this entity succeeds to remove TPLF/EPRDF from power by force and impose itself as transitional government, it will have no Tigray to govern. Following, Oromia and Ogaden will be gone. Once these regions are gone, the rest cannot be kept together. Add the problem of Somalia to this situation. Surely, Genbot 7 has no clue which direction it is taking the country and its people.

   As presented above, the country is faced with the risk of collapse due to the occupation of Somalia. The OLF, ONLF and EPPF are more than ever committed to war. Under such situation, who in his right mind would support Genbot 7 to unleash its “all inclusive” struggle that will adversely affect the country? Given our horrendous experience under the TPLF – a one time armed violent organization that ” liberated ” us from the Derg, would any one support to be liberated by armed gangs? How about the horrible experience of our neighbors to the north under the EPLF that fought for decades for independence? Would our people endure another violence to be perpetrated by self-proclaimed liberator warlords? Since the Italian occupation, people in this country have not lived in peace. They are tired of self-proclaimed liberators. How about the AFD as a transitional government that will work for the interest of the OLF and ONLF? Would the EPPF fight with the OLF and ONLF if they break their word about unity? How about Eritrea that works for its own interests? Do you believe that Eritrea wants the unity of Ethiopia instead of smaller and weaker nations in the region? We do not buy Genbot 7’s talk to remove TPLF/EPRDF without any plan about the future. We will not return to claindestinity, illegality and violence for no use. As done in the past, opposition parties will build on what is already achieved and win office through the ballot box. If they do not win, they will make more gains in the next election. Given the difficult political and economic situation the country is in now, the use of force to remove the TPLF/EPRDF is the worst choice. We would not say, as some do, that TPLF/EPRDF are not the enemy; they are. But there are much worse enemies that threaten the existence of the country than TPLF/EPRDF right now. No country means no people to govern. So, even for Genbot 7, the investment will not bring a return if the country does not exist. The impending risk of end of the country has presently created an obvious political divide between opposition parties that want to win power through the ballot box and those who want to win through war and violence. Those who do not want to see an imminent end of the country have rightly adopted, both in principle and practice, a peaceful struggle. They are persuaded that war and violence will contribute to the creation of a power vacuum that will enhance the chances of separatist armed warlords to achieve their goals. The best choice for the people right now is an orderly transfer of power through the ballot box rather than attempting to snatch it. Orderly transfer of power will close openings for power vacuum and ensure that elected representatives take office without disrupting economic, cultural and social activities. Alliance with warlords and investing in war and violence are wrong and risky. With warlords, the future has always been unknown, unknowable and bleak. Despite relentless hounding, the camp that prefers peaceful struggle will prevail but there is no guarantee without working hard to achieve it. Good luck for the peace camp.

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4. We can invest our hope in Organizations, like EPPF. The fate of Eritrea and Ethiopia is intertwined. Mercenary Weyane is destroying Ethiopia and Somalia for now. Its unfinished mission is dividing Eritrea the same way as it did on Ethiopia and a war with Sudan to overthrow anti-West regime there.

   Ethiopia is already at the cliff of disintegration and further work is not required. Somalia, Eritrea and patriotic Ethiopians must coordinate their actions against Weyane before it gets too late for their survival as peoples or nations.

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5. Where is Ginbot 7 ?….the 6 month grace period given to it by ER has expired long ago. where is the dear leader? Elias must have lost hope on it since we don’t here anything about it

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6. Well done,the main thing is EPPF must have radio staion to get support all over the world,soon i’m planning to DO SOMETHING in my area
   GOD bless EPPF

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7. Mis SENEDU all this bla bla is for nothing just in short cut say it you are againest EPPF,ARMED STRUGLE,you prefere woyane and siye abraha TOTO paramantarisme.Dont mention ERITREA because its a country you have been bombarding for 60 years,and today they are reconised by UN but not you .you and your followers cant change the situation,you think like EPRP ON national questions.For the stabilty of the horn OROMO,OGADEN,AND OTHERS NATIONS questions is irreversable,and can help more for stability and peacefull coexistance,between ethiopians

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8. Senedu K.’s analysis advances more or less that of
   Tecola Hagos’ recent article on the bills tabled
   on US Congress and Senate.

   It seems the main theme is that Ginbot7 to be sidelined
   due to lack of clear vision and direction of it’s
   leadership other than talk and evasively ignore the
   treatment of armed groups.

   No doubt peaceful struggle is much more preferable
   than armed struggles that have no end in site for
   stability and security for any given country let
   alone for a country that is devastated by poverty,
   diseases, and many social calamities. But the problem
   must be tackled by negotiations with all stakeholders
   without any preconditions, including armed groups.
   As far as Ginbot7 is concerned it has no teeth or
   nails as compared to ONLF, OLF & other armed resistance
   fronts. The question is more of human right,
   recognition & democracy than Ethiopianism as some
   would like to advance.

   Whether the size is small or big there should not
   be any compromise with human right & democracy.

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9. These former MPs who have served in Ethiopia, joined EPPF and now meeting in Europe and giving an interview to VOA sound believable. Addisu Abebe did a good job on behalf of Ethiopian public trying to get all the answers from them. They sound like fast moving and articulate politicians, rational in their own belief.

   I believe EPPF is the way one interprets it. If there had been TPLF, this is a patriotic front for defense. To the extent that they were undermined and had some short coming in being one solid EPPF(there were others who duplicated the ‘same”), it seems EPPF is well represented by these members/leaders.

   As far as past media, as to the suggestion of radio program, journalist Demis Belete is well defended with his credibility and integrity untouched ( Negat ena Ewnete Eyader Yeteral). He was the first eye witness to the presence and activity of EPPF. Although his filmed documentary came out delayed, may be due to sabotage by Solomon Tekalign, the timing of his report and visit to EPPF ground was part of a collective response to a desperate time that witnessed violation of human right, arrest etc.

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