By Mohamed Diriye Abdullahi
Hargeisa, Somaliland

Many people in Somaliland and especially the leadership have always thought they had a good friend in Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia’s helmsman for life, and that he would assist Somaliland’s quest for recognition when the moment was right.

In public, Meles and his advisors have always maintained that the only thing that was keeping them from extending a formal recognition to Somaliland was the fear that doing so would exacerbate the situation in Somalia proper, as such an act would ostensibly may hurt the feelings of the people of Somalia. Indeed an Ethiopian foreign policy paper heralds that stance.

But by now, it should be plain to all that Meles is a clever Janus [two-faced]. If avoiding angering the people of Somalia was a principle of foreign policy for his regime, that stance has been already rendered pointless by the invasion of Somalia; as we speak Meles’ hordes are roughing, raping, and killing the people of Somalia. This is much more serious than upsetting the nationalist sensitivities of a people. It is subjugating them, and robbing them of the right to determine their future.

So what are Meles’ true intentions on, first, Somalia? By sending his army to Somalia, with the blessing and support of his old paymasters in his guerrilla campaigns against that the other former dictator, Mengistu Haile Marian, Meles has shown that he has no intention of helping to establish a viable and democratic government for Somalia. His real intentions are:

(a) to establish a puppet regime, headed by the reptilian colonel, Abdullahi Yusuf, a man who like Meles has no understanding of what democracy means. Such a regime serves him better than anything else, as it would be weak and at war all the time with Somali resistors;

(b) to send a clear signal to Ethiopian rebel and/or opposition movements (and there is a plethora of them, armed or unarmed) that Meles is still the king of beasts in the jungle that is the Horn of Africa; the message here is: abandon all hope, ye resistors; let the fate of the Islamic Courts of Somalia serve you as an example of what will be happen to movements that
dare try Meles’s hand.

So, what are his intentions on Somaliland?

Somaliland has a record of good governance and trail-blazing democratization that the benefits the whole region. Would Meles at least not recognize the merits of a peaceful and democratic Somaliland in the Horn of Africa? Of course, a sane person would immediately recognize the merits of a peaceful and democratic Somaliland in a war-plagued region. But is Meles actually sane? Likewise, a democrat would at least concede the right of the people of Somaliland to determine their future within the confines of the colonial boundaries of British Somaliland. But Meles is no democrat.

Meles knows the naivety of Somaliland’s leadership, and has no respect for them—not that they do have enough material and human resources to insist on a respectful relationship with him, but because they have neither the experience nor the talents to transform such resources into a powerful projection of sovereignty.

Therefore, for Meles, Somaliland is a minor chip and it is mostly likely that he has already used it as a deal sweetener with the reptilian colonel. Already, it appears that the said reptilian colonel, and his running jackal, Mr. Gedi, have set their eyes on the booby-trapped prize that seceded Somaliland is — the pair is already seeing dollar signs all over Somaliland’s revenue generation resources such as the Port of Berbera. You aint seen nothing yet: this is the beginning of another round of vicious inter-Somali wars, and sly Meles would probably be smiling for decades to come, for has with one stone (the invasion of Somalia) killed two birds (the
Islamic Courts of Mogadishu and his enemies in Ethiopia).

To save tranquil Somaliland from the impending calamity, it is high time that the government of Somaliland, and its ministers, instead of spending their energies on silencing the guardians of our liberty, independent journalists, stood up to the real problems that will make or break Somaliland. This is a turning point in history and instead of sleeping at the helm they should charter a new course for the republic, one that relies on one else but ourselves. Above all, they should send a strong signal to all that that Somaliland’s friendship cannot be taken for granted and that its peaceful existence is not a sign of weakness. As the cliché says, “a country has no permanent friends, but only permanent interests.”

This is the day to say and do that and tomorrow would be too late. If they do not stand up to the task, those who covet this tranquil unrecognized republic would take it by force, and without doubt if that happens it will back to the guerrilla war of the SNM, the very war that led to the collapse of the Siad Barre regime of Somalia, as there is no way that the people of Somaliland will accept to be coerced back into the fateful union with Somalia.

The odds are that there will be much more misery and many more deaths than has so far happened in the warlord wars of Somalia. The reptilian colonel and his running jackal, Mr. Gedi, doubtless do not care whether they unleash another calamity on the fractured Somali communities; as for the naive leadership of Somaliland, instead of sending out unequivocal messages to all, standing firm on sovereignty and preparing the defensives, are sleepwalking us to a disaster foretold; and well, Meles, why the heck should he care if Somalis themselves have not the brains to stop the bloodletting among themselves, especially when it serves him so well.