By Paul B. Henze
A New Beginning
On May 29 Meles Zenawi telephoned me in Washington with an invitation to come to Addis Ababa to observe the transition to a new political system. With the support of RAND and the National Endowment for Democracy, I spent three weeks in the capital and two weeks in travel.
Remarkable changes have taken place in Ethiopia during the past three months. Ethiopians are rejoicing in the knowledge that the country is at peace after long years of seemingly endless civil war. There is widespread support for the principles and policies the new leaders have enunciated. There are high expectations that real democracy will now prove possible. As in Eastern Europe, there appears to be very little misunderstanding of democracy as a basic principle.
Changes in mood from sullen depression, then anxiety and finally to optimism about the future is apparent in Addis Ababa and other parts of the country. People talk without looking over their shoulders. Political groups meet publicly and several political parties are in the process of coalescing. Writers are planning new newspapers and magazines. President Meles has held long discussion sessions with critical intellectuals on prime-time evening TV. Evening newscasts in Tigrinya and Orominya have been introduced on TV and precede evening programming in Amharic. Ethiopian citizens can now obtain passports on demand without having to pay bribes. Political exiles (who until a few weeks ago would have been jailed on arrival in the country) circulate in full freedom and host cocktail parties at major hotels.
Political dialogue in Ethiopia is now characterized by a strong interest in Western democracy, federalism and open economic systems. EPRDF leaders have committed themselves to establishing multi-party democracy within two years, to a pluralist society with a free press, to a free-market economy, and to respect for human rights and the rule of law with equal status for all peoples of the country. Random violence, arrogance, and officious behavior of government functionaries toward citizens have quickly gone out of style. EPRDF leaders speak of keeping the future Ethiopian army within the range that prevailed during Haile Selassie’s time — about 45,000 men in all. They show little interest in a reconstituted air force.
Rains have been abundant so far this “kremt” season. Farmers are plowing and planting with confidence, traders are expanding their activities, and prospects for a good harvest seem excellent. International relief operations have greatly eased the threat of famine in most food-deficiency areas. Churches are full, as are mosques. There is embarrassment over the $35 million payment Israel made to Ethiopia to facilitate Felasha emigration, but satisfaction that it did not actually fall into the hands of Mengistu or Kassa Kebede. The money was transformed by Israel into an Ethiopian government account in Citibank in New York during the last half hour of the banking business day on Saturday, May 25, 1991. By Monday, the Provisional Government established by the EPRDF came into control of Ethiopian government accounts abroad. One body of opinion within the new government favored returning the money to Israel on the grounds that it represented “blood money” paid for the export of Ethiopian citizens. Kassa Kebede was smuggled out of the country with one of the last Falasha flights, carried on the plane on a stretcher under a blanket — supposedly a Falasha too ill to be disturbed. He carried a passport with an Israeli visa. After a brief stay in Israel, he departed for Switzerland.
There are many unhappy people in Ethiopia. The damage a degenerated authoritarian system does cannot be repaired overnight. The new leaders have committed themselves to privatization of much of the state- run economy. The most difficult things to privatize will be the state farms that are losing money and industrial establishments with outdated or Soviet-supplied equipment.
“The whole Derg system became a network of corruption — corruption that reached fantastic levels,” Meles Zenawi said to me as we discussed economic problems, “and we face a huge job in rooting it out and setting things right.” The new government has to grapple with a maze of urgent tasks all at once: getting transport moving, restoring communications within the country and with the outside world, getting schools ready to open in September, obtaining medical supplies and restoring rudimentary social services.
When EPRDF leaders took over the government in Addis Ababa, they found that the Derg had left behind a mere $3.6 million. The Treasury contained only 96 million birr. An EEC consortium set up a $38 million credit for fuel imports.
The center and north of the country are littered with incredible quantities of wrecked tanks, trucks rocket launchers, armored vehicles, and other military debris. Some roads are still mined. I was unable to drive to Alem Ketema. Two vehicles had been blown up the day before I attempted the route. Vast quantities of ammunition remain to be disposed of in many parts of the country.
Despite the widespread sense of relief at the changes which have brought peace and the promise of a better future, the country looks shabbier than it did 20 years ago. Infrastructure is run-down. Just about everything needs refurbishing and repair.
New EPRDF officials seldom occupy Derg quarters or offices, either in the capital or in provincial towns. In both Mekelle and Gondar, I found the EPRDF administrators of the province working out of modest houses.
There are many kinds of unhappy people in Ethiopia. There are the destitute and the beggars. There seem to be more of them than ever before. There are divided and bereaved families. Hundreds of thousands of wives still do not know where their husbands and sons are, or if they are alive at all. There are students who have missed two, three or more years of education. There are Shoan centrists who resent the end of their era of dominance. Amharas are not being discriminated against as such, however. There are many northern Amharas in the EPRDF.
The new leaders talk of smaller and honest government. They use no titles but Ato and Woizero. They talk of federalism, local responsibility, and encouraging local initiative. It will take time to educate the population in these concepts and to establish effective local institutions. Some Ethiopians fear that no matter how good their intentions and how sincere their promise, new leaders may not be able to deliver. They fear the residual effects of Marxism on guerrillas who once claimed to admire Albania. Can the idealism that the new leaders profess be put into practice? What alternatives is there to giving new leaders the opportunity to prove their good intentions and live up to their promises? They won internal struggle under the slogan Selam ba tigil (Peace through Struggle). Throughout the north this slogan can be seen on posters and painted on walls.
Ethiopians recognize that Derg policies–and Mengistu’s inability to change–brought the country to the brink of disintegration. The insurgents had far fewer resources than the Derg. There is widespread realization that if EPRDF forces had not entered Addis Ababa on 28 May, an appalling bloodbath might have ensued, for law and order in the capital had broken down. The “Acting President” General Tesfay Gebre Kidan telephoned American charge d’affaires, Mr. Houdek, on May 26 and told him he could no longer control his troops or even his own bodyguards. It was in response to this information that Assistant Secretary Herman Cohen in London concurred in Meles Zenawi’s proposal to bring EPRDF forces into the capital without further delay. No one in Addis Ababa any longer expresses resentment of alleged U.S. facilitation of EPRDF takeover of the capital.
Human Victims of the Recent Past
Mengistu’s communist party (the WPE) has been dissolved. Leaders who did not flee are interned in the Yekatit ’66 party school under circumstances that contrast with those that prevailed in Derg prisons. All other WPE members and certain categories of former officials are required to report their whereabouts to local authorities every week. In some provincial areas, party members and former officials (including in some cases heads of peasant associations) have been interned and assigned to work on clean-up and reconstruction projects. The Ministry of State Security has been abolished and its personnel are interned at Sendafa. The new government plans to sort serious offenders from the rest, put them on trial in the presence of international observers and release the rest.
The fate of hundreds of thousands of ex-soldiers and expellees from Eritrea is a much more urgent problem. I saw thousands of conscripts, mostly young southerners, being transported southward by Red Cross trucks to camps at Nazreth and Debre Zeit for processing and release. But available transport has been inadequate to handle the exodus. Perhaps as many as two hundred thousand ex-soldiers and civilians had been gathered in makeshift camps in Tigre, Wollo, Gondar and Bahr Dar as of mid-July. During the same period, I drove among further tens of thousands trekking along highways in Tigre and on routes to Gondar and Bahr Dar. Some retained their uniforms and boots. Many did not. Some walked barefeet.
The condition of some of the civilians in northern camps was sometimes worse than that of the soldiers. The outpouring of civilian expellees from Eritrea was still continuing as of the 3rd week of July (when I left Ethiopia) and more than 50,000 soldiers who had fled to Sudan were scheduled to be sent back across the border soon.
Eritrea
I did not visit Eritrea, but hope to do so before the end of the year. Isaias Afewerki, leader of the Eritrean Popular Liberation Front (EPLF) undertook a commitment in February 1991 to defer a referendum on the future of Eritrea for two years. The EPRDF provisional leadership in Addis Ababa also declared its readiness to accept the results of an internationally supervised plebiscite on the future of Eritrea. In respect to all international agreements and arrangements, Eritrea still remains part of the Ethiopian state. When I left Ethiopia on July 19, air, telephone, and postal services with Eritrea had not been reestablished. In contrast to other parts of Ethiopia, there were no reports of moves toward political democratization in Eritrea. This had caused disquiet among Ethiopians, including Eritreans living in the capital and other parts of the country, especially the large Eritrean business community.
The Flag and Amharic
Except in Eritrea, the green-yellow-red traditional flag flies throughout Ethiopia. The proceedings of the National Conference were in Amharic. The Charter the Conference agreed upon has definitive texts: in English and in Amharic. Meles impressed participants and television audience with his command of Amharic.
Food and Famine
Many foreign and international agencies continue to be active in providing famine relief. Noteworthy is the work of the Joint Relief Partnership (JRP), a consortium of three Ethiopian churches (Orthodox, Catholic and Mekane Yesus) with the Catholic Relief Service and Lutheran World Federation. This group was set up to cross combat lines and supply food to needy areas in the center and north of the country. Cross-border food operations from Sudan have ceased. Most parts of the north were still being supplied with petroleum products from Sudan in July. Some of the international relief agencies have had difficulties in their relations with the EPLF administration in Eritrea.
The reforms Mengistu reluctantly decreed in March 1990 had a rapid and favorable impact in the parts of the south. In Arsi and southern Shoa, producer cooperatives quickly dissolved and peasants began to leave the odious villages into which they had been herded a few years before. The Agricultural Marketing Corporation’s authority to levy delivery quotas was abolished and farmers were freed to sell as they pleased as private traders resumed operations. In northern regions the EPRDF told farmers that they were free to do as they pleased. Meles Zenawi described the new government’s approach to me in the following words shortly after I arrived in June: “We don’t have the means to provide much assistance to the farmers yet, and we hope eventually to attract foreign help to speed up development. Meanwhile we will apply what we learned in Tigre: to listen to the farmers. They know best how to plant and cultivate. Agriculture is not a field where bureaucrats should give orders. We are going to stay off the backs of the farmers of this country, encourage them to plant as they wish and sell without hindrance. This should bring us through the next couple of years successfully. By following this course, we can feed ourselves and start accumulating a surplus for export.”
Belg rains were good in 1991 in most parts of the central highlands. I watched energetic farmers cutting and threshing fields of barley, wheat and teff with good yields. Markets throughout the north are well supplied with dried peas, beans, corn, vegetables and potatoes. There are still great price disparities, especially between rural areas and Addis Ababa. Chickens sell for 2.50 birr in Tigre and Gondar but cost 15 birr in Addis Ababa. Teff was 140 birr per quintal in Gojjam in mid-July but almost twice as high in Tigre and Shoa. Salt is still expensive in the center and south. Livestock are in oversupply in most parts of the country.
Exports and the Need for Foreign Exchange
The problem of finding exports to generate a rapid inflow of foreign exchange is urgent. Coffee sales were delayed by the government change and transport to ports can still be a serious obstacle to rapid shipment. Except for coffee and livestock, Ethiopia has little else to export until the next harvest is brought in.
In spite of heavy requirements for support of Derg military operations in Eritrea, Ethiopian Airlines (EAL) appears to have finished up its 1991 fiscal year in the black. EAL’s new general manager, Captain Zeleke Demissie has a clear set of goals: expansion of international services and revival of tourism to Ethiopia as a major foreign exchange earner.
At Lalibela and Axum I inspected the splendidly designed hotels built ten years ago when the Derg still had illusions of being able to earn money from tourism. They have been looted and their fittings wrecked, but the attractive stone buildings are intact. The National Tourists Organization, a bureaucratic monstrosity, is unlikely to survive for long. Six private tour companies have been reactivated and are preparing for operations. Addis Ababa Hilton remains one of the finest hotels in the Third World.
The U.S. Embassy
After three years of distinguished service, Robert Houdek was replaced by Marc Baas as Charge d`Affaire in Addis Ababa at the end of June. Charge Baas met with President Meles and is in frequent and direct contact with senior officials of the Transitional Government. He hosted almost 1000 guests at this year’s Fourth of July reception. The long period when the U.S. Embassy in Addis Ababa was the object of harassment and petty slights by Derg officialdom is clearly past. There is talk of expanded AID and USIS operations as well as the possible assignment of Peace Corps volunteers again.
Travel in Shoa and the North
On day trips I visited several parts of Shoa: Tegulet, Jirru, Ensaro, Selale and Minjar. Everywhere farmers were busy and happy, market towns were lively and new local officials who had been popularly elected were carrying out their functions with a light hand. A few EPRDF fighters (generally called Woyane in the south, Tagays in the north) were maintaining security in country towns without friction or tension with the inhabitants.
During a ten-day trip through four northern provinces I visited Dessie, Lalibela, Alamata, Korem, Makelle, Adigrat, Axum, and Aduwa and then crossed via Debre Tabor and Addis Zemen to Woreta and up through beautiful green, hilly countryside to Gondar. From Gondar I went to Bahr Dar and back to Addis Ababa via Mota, Bichena, Fiche and Debre Libanos. The monuments of Lalibela and Axum have suffered no molestation. I attended morning services in St. Mary of Zion at Axum and observed the priests and monks carrying the tabot through the town in a ceremony of prayer for rain. I met with the EPRDF provincial administrators in both Mekelle and Gondar and was impressed with their dedication to the same policy principles the EPRDF has proclaimed in Addis Ababa.
Conclusion
After five weeks in the new Ethiopia I left feeling more optimistic about the country’s future than it has been possible to feel at any time in the past 17 years. Now political life is open. The new leaders are known and accessible. They hold press conferences and appear on TV in natural circumstances. Political and economic discourse takes place across a broad spectrum. The country is quickly opening up to the world.
President Meles Zenawi is already the most popular public figure in Ethiopia. He is a sociable, intelligent human being who is widely read, likes to meet people and talk openly, and avoids mouthing dogma or pontificating. Whatever his earlier beliefs, and whatever his intentions when he setup the Marxist-Leninist League of Tigre a few years ago, he makes no concessions to Marxism now in public utterances or private conversation.
The Provisional Government that is now being formed under the umbrella of the 83-member Council of Representatives will face difficult challenges. Among them will be the problem of coming to terms with ethnicity. Another will be the crucial problem of economic policy. At medium and lower levels, the EPRDF appears to contain people still sympathetic to radical nationalist ideas. Their influence could complicate the task of coming to terms with the World Bank and the lending and development institutions with whom cooperative relations are going to be essential for the success of new government and for the establishment of real democracy in the country.
It will be surprising if the Provisional Government performs with a high degree of efficiency in all the tasks it undertakes. But if it retains the spirit of openness and common sense with which it has begun, it will learn quickly from experience. It will include professionals as well as insurgent leaders. Ethiopia remains fortunate in having large numbers of well trained technocrats and specialists who are dedicated to work for the good of the country. If a fair proportion of those who left during the Derg era return from abroad, bringing their talents and their money with them, they will give an enormous boost to the peace of recovery and development.
Suddenly, in the wake of what appeared likely to be a disastrous bloodbath, Ethiopia has emerged into an era of hope and expectation. In spirit, the Provisional Government is by far the most democratic the country has known in its 3000-year history. The best way friends of Ethiopia on the outside can ensure its transformation into a stable democratic system is to help it implement its commitments and to call it to account if there is backsliding.
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Paul Henze is an expert in Ethiopian affairs with Rand Corp. This article is condensed from a longer report prepared by the author for Rand Corp.