By Getachew Mekasha

These are extraordinary times for Ethiopia, and times like these need to be approached in an extraordinary way. The unceremonious departure of Mengistu Haile Mariam from Addis Ababa, while a welcome event in itself, raises all sorts of questions about the future of Ethiopia which need to be addressed with utmost urgency. Bold steps need to be taken, and at the risk of sticking out ones neck, the following concrete steps are put forward as a possible blueprint that will guarantee the unity and future stability of the Ethiopian nation.

The drama unfolding in Ethiopia is performed by familiar actors in a familiar setting. Even though the data is incomplete at the time of this writing, and means and motives may sometimes be obscure, sufficient information is available to make a reliable assessment.

The shifts in power beginning to take place will invalidate many of the assumptions that have guided the various groups and their strategies. The collapse of the central government, necessary and desirable as it is, will introduce a level of disorientation and a host of problems that the democratic movements must anticipate and prepare to meet. The task of overthrowing Mengistu’s regime may soon seem like child’s play compared with the task which immediately follows it, of planning for the volatile period following the collapse of the existing social order.

Clearly, a futile attempt is being made to continue Mengistuism without Mengistu! This is happening at a time when Ethiopia is faced with acute political crisis and economic stagnation.

All indications are that it will not be long, however, before the remnants of his evil regime are swept away into the dust bin of history. The main task facing the nation now is for organized democratic forces to take the situation in hand, map out a viable plan, and guide Ethiopia through a transitional period to a full-fledged democracy. Certain priorities may be contained in this plan.

For the vast majority of Ethiopians the maintenance of national unity and integrity is sacrosanct. No sacrifice is deemed too great to achieve that goal. Throughout Ethiopia we are witnessing the rejection by society of a transplanted and alien ideology. Socialism is being rejected in favor of traditional thinking and values. This process is taking place on economic and political levels and destabilizes not only the existing regime, but also the opposition movements which are still tied to Marxism/Leninism.

At the same time, the rejection of socialism which is blamed for all the nation’s woes in the last 17 years, has created a new yearning for a return to old traditional values which represent the very ethos of the Ethiopian nation. This does not, however, mean turning the clock back which is neither possible nor desirable in this day and age. Rather, it is more in the nature of compensating for the wanton violence inflicted upon the soul of the nation, and dressing and soothing its wounds.

Only a return to traditional norms and values can bring a new revival of the national spirit and put Ethiopia firmly back on the road of true national salvation. In short, the nation now feels the urgent need to rediscover itself, and stop experimenting with new-fangled alien ideas of government which have proved to be so costly in more ways than one.

A reflection of this new mood can be seen in the positive reaction last year to the announcement in London that the son of Emperor Haile Selassie had declared himself Emperor to save his country from its predicament. Formerly the Crown Prince Merd Asmatch Asfa Wossen Haile Selassie, the Emperor has taken the title Amha Selassie I.

At the time of the announcement the Emperor said that he would be a figurehead for national democratic reconstruction until the people were able to elect a parliament. There could not be a coronation in Addis Ababa until this had been achieved.

For anyone following the heartbeat of the nation it was clear the announcement was greeted with enthusiasm in the countryside. Even the urban elite who are usually reserved about such matters were genuinely moved by the announcement. This is an undeniable fact. Leaflets bearing the late Emperor’s picture are now flooding Addis Ababa, which is proof of the great nostalgia for the return of the monarchy in Ethiopia. Another proof is the great love and affection, and emotional upsurge with which members of the royal family were greeted by the populace upon their release
from prison recently.

As expected, the Emperor’s announcement at that time had come as a bombshell to Mengistu and his cohorts in Addis Ababa who could immediately see the danger to themselves in view of their total lack of legitimacy in the eyes of the people after 17 years of misrule.

Ironically, this feeling was also shared to a more or less degree by leaders of political organizations opposed to the Derg who were hoping to fill the vacuum in the post-Mengistu era, for they too suffer from the same lack of legitimacy inspite of their claims of adherence to democratic and pluralistic ideals.

However, these organizations are expected to embrace the concept of a reconstituted and modernized Ethiopian crown established on the British, Japanese or Scandinavian model – a constitutional monarchy symbolizing the unity of the nation and the continuity of its historical past. Fulfilling its traditional role of national standard bearer, a fully restored Ethiopian monarchy will, as it has always done in the past, provide the all-encompassing umbrella under which all national activity hummed and flourished.

The Emperor’s declaration has provided a timely opportunity for all to join hands and make a last ditch effort towards Ethiopia’s deliverance. For those who put the country’s interest above all other considerations, now is the time to cast aside petty jealousies and narrow parochialism and get on the royal bandwagon to save the nation from fragmentation and oppression. In the last 17 years the Ethiopian political climate has been marked by division and factionalism. A common Ethiopian saying which described this state of affairs is the analogy which people draw from honey bees.

Like a bee-hive without a queen, Ethiopians up to now found themselves disoriented and scattered, searching for a force that would unite them and channel their efforts and energy into a constructive endeavor. That force could only come from something deeply rooted in their history and culture. The restoration of the monarchy admirably fits that bill.

In view of this, all that remains to be done now is for the leaders of existing democratic organizations to swallow their pride and bite the bullet, and to be ready and willing to accept the will of the people as the ultimate arbiter as clearly stated in their respective programs.

For, we must remember that the interests of Ethiopia are more comprehensive than the interests of any single group or individual.

Besides, unlike all the leaders of the various political groups now aspiring for high office in Ethiopia, the Ethiopian monarchy as duly represented by the son of the late Emperor Haile Selassie, will have no problem of name-recognition or legitimacy in the eyes of the Ethiopian people. This age-old, time honored and deeply rooted institution is a natural traditional rallying point for all Ethiopians.

Apart from rectifying the gross injustice perpetrated by the Derg in presuming to “abolish” the monarchy without even consulting the Ethiopian people, the act of reinstating it immediately will redound to the nation’s benefit in many ways. For one, it will put a stop once and for all to needless altercations and further strife in wasteful power struggles among ambitious people like Mengistu, Atnafu, Benti, Aman and now Tesfaye, and God knows who in the future! It can be an endless affair with every Tom, Dick, and Harry in Ethiopia feeling himself qualified to be head of state, when the position can be filled by only one person. In any case, one of the first acts of a transitional administration will have to be declaring null and void all the unjust laws and decrees enacted by the Derg since 1974.

All countries have well established cultural references, and Ethiopia is no exception. The ancient Ethiopian Orthodox Church has always played a central role as a pillar, anchor and custodian of that culture principally in the highlands, while Islam played the same role in the lowlands. In the context of complete religious freedom, and the separation of church and state, all religions must be allowed to operate freely in Ethiopia.

The reformed and revitalized church’s role in fostering peace and reconciliation, and leading people away from the path of vengeance and vindictiveness and curbing violence among the population at large can be crucial.

Those who have now wrested control of power from the bloody hands of a brutal and repressive regime have in the past shown great defiance in the face of defeat. They are now called upon to show great magnanimity in their hour of victory.

Above all it is a time for true statesmanship that demands a large heart and a breadth of vision. They must reach out to every section of Ethiopian society and heal the wounds of the last 17 years of misrule. The first step towards this goal is the immediate formation of a broadly based government that will reassure the nation of justice and fairplay.

Plans must be made in detail to cover every aspect of the transitional period and must be made ready to be implemented instantly. Decrees must be prepared that will enable essential government responsibilities to be met in a transitional period.

The goal of the Ethiopian Democratic forces is to install a multi- party representational democracy, with a federal system to guarantee a degree of regional autonomy within a unified Ethiopia.

A complete, temporary government structure must be developed to be ready to step into an emergency situation and carry the country through the most vulnerable period. No talent should be wasted. All of Ethiopia’s experienced members and potential members are urgently needed for these tasks.

The best thinking and experience must go into this effort. Groups should be set up along the lines of Think Tanks made up of qualified, experienced people with specific responsibilities for studying various areas of economic, political and social concern and developing emergency operational plans in these areas for the interim period. These groups must be ready to move into position at a moment’s notice and take charge of specific their responsibility.

All organizations committed to the unity of Ethiopia and to a multi- party system will best serve their own interests and the interests of Ethiopia by coming together now to insure the emergence of a democratic order.

It is critical that the role of the military be clearly defined and limited. We have already seen, in 1974, how easily military rule can install itself and how difficult it is to remove it, once installed.

Unquestionably, there are ambitious young officers in the military at this moment who anticipate following in Mengistu’s footsteps. Severe constraints must be put on military involvement in political matters from the beginning.

One way of inhibiting this is to seek the extradition of Mengistu from Zimbabwe and putting him on trial. Failing that, his trial should be held in absentia where all his crimes and misdeeds will be enumerated to make him an example for future generations. Never again!

The Armed Forces of Ethiopia need to be kept aware of this in order to appreciate the necessary limits to their proper contributing role in Ethiopia’s future.

The state of armed preparedness of the country as a whole must also be considered – the various guerrilla movements as well as the military.

With the fall of the Mengistu regime, segments of the population may also turn on members of the military and of national security. In both cases, the skilled services of these groups will continue to be needed. They must be protected not only for their own sakes but for the stability of the country as a whole. What preparations can be made for their safety in a volatile transition period need to be carefully studied.

Opposition movements which, until this time, have had the fact of their opposition to the Mengistu regime in common, will lose this commonality of interest. The crucial differences and the competition among them will emerge more strongly than ever at the same time that cooperation is most urgently needed. The factionalism that will surely exist could fracture Ethiopia into another Lebanon if steps are not taken now to deal with this danger.

A multi-party democracy is the only form of government flexible enough to lead to peace for Ethiopia’s wounded population. But the strategies for a democratic and united Ethiopia have not yet been firmly articulated. To achieve this, democratic forces must organize themselves now to steer through the troubled waters ahead.

A draft constitution must be prepared in advance for presentation and discussion among all groups participating in the formation of a new transitional government. Such a draft should particularly address the question of local autonomy and guarantee individual rights. Recommendations on these issues must be available to the population at large and to regional political groups so that they can serve to diffuse hostilities among them.

New political structures cannot immediately solve Ethiopia’s urgent economic, agricultural, educational and health problems. New political structures cannot provide food where none exists. Problems in these areas can be expected to persist or to increase as the result of social upheaval.

Ethiopia’s recurrent famine and the immense refugee population wanting to return home following a change of government will put very specific stresses on the new government and on the population of the country as a whole.

The West, as democracy’s best representative in the world, must realize the need to develop and pursue a positive policy of support for the democratic forces in Ethiopia.

This historic tide reaching toward freedom reflects a massive awakening at all levels of most developing countries to the truism that pluralistic political systems and market-driven economies work better in providing for the need of society – any society.

The areas discussed above are interdependent, one upon another. This interdependence requires that they be addressed simultaneously and rightaway.

The success of the political transition Ethiopia must undergo calls for and depends upon the quick and effective coordination of appropriate new strategies on the part of all political groups with a stake in Ethiopia’s future.

Today, Ethiopia is a land where misery walks around the place like a live being. For the country’s poor, the revolution that gave birth to men like Mengistu, meant not liberty but new masters: uneducated men in uniform who rule by terror, intimidation and fraud.

Nothing has changed except the birth of hope that was quickly dashed.

The prestige of the nation has suffered. The high esteem with which the country has always been held as one of the oldest civilized societies in the world has all but vanished. Post-Haile Selassie Ethiopia presents a portrait that verges on the Didionesque. While surveying and observing the bleak Ethiopian scene today, the world has adopted a tone of cool detachment mixed with scorn for the social wreckage spawned by local brutality and incompetence aggravated by misplaced Soviet, Eastern
bloc and Cuban meddling. This sad state of affairs has exacted a heavy toll on the morale and self-esteem of all Ethiopians, especially that of the younger generation.

Restoring lost faith, pride and dignity at the national level is a task best suited for the Ethiopian crown. Only then would the Psalmist’s prophecy be fulfilled: “Ethiopia shall stretch out her hands to God.”

ETHIOPIA SHALL RISE AGAIN!