By Alex Thurston
As protests continue across the Arab world, rumblings of political discontent have sounded in sub-Saharan Africa as well. These rumblings range from serious protests in Gabon and Sudan to pro-revolution newspaper columns in countries like Nigeria. Revolution will likely not spread through sub-Saharan Africa, but leaders in Ethiopia and Uganda moved this week to block even the possibility of uprisings. These moves show that the Arab protests are making some African leaders quite nervous, particularly as their countries navigate political transitions.
In Ethiopia, journalist Eskinder Nega has compared his country to Egypt and speculated about the possibility of an Egypt-style mobilization in Ethiopia. Eskinder’s remarks online and on the radio drew the attention, he says, of the Ethiopian government:
Eskinder Nega says six heavily-armed policemen jumped from a truck on a busy central Addis Ababa street last week, grabbed him and whisked him away to federal police headquarters. He says during a two-hour detention, he was brought before a deputy police commissioner who did not identify himself, but who warned him his activities were considered seditious.
“He said, ‘You’ve been trying to incite Egyptian and Tunisian-like protests in Ethiopia through writings you do on the Internet,” Eskinder recounted. “And the interviews you give to various news outlets. And he said, ‘Nothing similar is going to happen in this country.’”
Eskinder was jailed during the 2005 government crackdown in Ethiopia, which followed fiercely contested elections. Last year’s elections in Ethiopia did not produce the same levels of dissent – or violence – that 2005′s elections did, but Eskinder’s latest detention suggests that Ethiopian authorities are keen to shut down any voices who say that the government lacks legitimacy and is vulnerable to the wave of uprisings.
In Uganda, which holds presidential elections today, there seems to be little chance that President Yoweri Museveni will lose, and little chance that mass demonstrations could drive him from power. Still, Ugandan opposition leaders have talked about launching protests if Museveni wins. This threat was enough to worry the government, which “ordered phone companies to intercept text messages with words or phrases including ‘Egypt’, ‘bullet,’ and ‘people power’ ahead of [today]‘s elections that some fear may turn violent.” This preemptive maneuver seems to presage a greater crackdown to come, if the opposition does indeed take to the streets.
Government crackdowns could end up being the decisive factor in stopping sub-Saharan African protest movements before they really get off the ground. Northern Sudan’s repression appears to have stymied protesters there for the most part. And the words of an Ethiopian opposition member that Eskinder interviewed are revealing as to the political realities there:
Could the legal Ethiopian opposition leaders try to replicate what the legal opposition triggered in Egypt? “No,” firmly answered an opposition official I queried. “There will be a massacre, and it will also be the end of us,” he said. I could have been mistaken, but I thought I had sensed alarm in his tone.
There is another important issue also: If government repression did occur, would media outlets cover it? Given how little coverage Gabon has received in comparison with Arab countries, I think it unlikely that international media would devote substantial attention to a short – but merciless – crackdown in a country like Ethiopia. Some people paid attention in 2005, of course, but not on the scale that we’re seeing with Egypt and elsewhere.
In some places, then, African activists’ realistic fears of death and failure are already discouraging potential protesters. Nevertheless, as I said Wednesday, everyone is well aware of the events in Egypt – including governments who are taking steps to signal policies of zero tolerance for dissent.
(Alex Thurston is a PhD student studying Islam in Africa at Northwestern University and blogs at Sahel Blog.)
6 thoughts on “Dictators in sub-Saharan Africa take preemptive actions”
Feri feriwn new leka ‘legal’ yehonew …. wey Ethiopia!
Could the legal Ethiopian opposition leaders try to replicate what the legal opposition triggered in Egypt? “No,” firmly answered an opposition official I queried. “There will be a massacre, and it will also be the end of us,” he said. I could have been mistaken, but I thought I had sensed alarm in his tone.
what we hearing or some stupid weyane supporter says is going to be a massacer in ET if we start uprising.this weyany talk they may kill a few but we will get rid of this housban and wife thugs.what happen in egypt it could happen in ET.”BERTA YAGERA SEW TNESA ASAYEW GEGNNETHUN”
When there is a revolution,and when it is scared,there is alwyas sacrifices.Ben Ali,Husen Mubarak,the Baheraine king,soon,the yemen president,well he too,soon,and now Muhamar Gadafi,nothing but vacant and coward has left Libya for Venuzela for a permanent exile;well,good decision he made.For all those years he bragged about anything and everything of himself and had burned millions of dollars for nothing is now way and away crossing the ocean.Well,people will take over Libya.
Zinawi pitbull dogs and pupies are now silently,however sometimes,in public,they are near enough to witness the most dynamic revolution that will uproot the Meles Naziawi and its regime from it stood,dug,or baricated to deflect the arrow of the revolution off the target,which is itself.The feast of the Ethiopians Revolution is tough and unified.It will pave the way to a victory.
Victory for all Ethiopans!!!
The people of Ethiopia do not need to go through what happened in North Africa and the middle East. As you all remember the 2005 election and its after math, the people of Ethiopia suffered. We all know that Ato Melese is a dictator but knowingly the people of Ethiopia have voted for him and his party since there is no trustworthy and strong opposition party. In addition, the people of Ethiopia are tiered of being the punching bags for fox in the US and other western country. You could talk politics and criticize the political system in Ethiopia but none of you will go back to fight or to make change happen. instead you are simply provoking people back home so that they get killed. NO NO that does not work this time since the people of Ethiopia is tiered of politics while they have nothing to eat or to hope for, this is the first time the people of Ethiopia are witnessed a good economical growth hope for the future which insures the development of our beloved country.
As far as I am concerned, no Government will stay in power for ever but let us spare the People of Ethiopia the trouble that North Africa and the Mideast are going through. Please remember other countries have done a lot more to empower their local population and have a better economical structure to support their struggle for democracy, we have yet to achieved that before marching for democracy.
we all love our country and would like to bring a lasting democratic change but we have to be careful so that the life of our people will not be negatively affected. In another word we need to chose the right time and the right place to start a political upraise.
It is unfortunate to witness some vulgarity, everyone is entitled to his/her opinion even if they are supporting the government in power. We Ethiopian’s are coming from an old civilization and a profound culture, I suggest we remember this when commenting in such public web. Let us write to provoke discussion, inspire to create a substantive solution to our county’s socio politics and economic growth.
Btw the country will not be in chaoes if a dictator and his hodam comrades in crime leave or get dragged out! Look at Tunisia, Egypt and soon to be Libya! In fact any layman leading Ethiopia would fare better than the hatred filled; ethno-racist; colonial-type-divide and conquer rulers of the day! They are the most notorious autocrats Ethiopia ever have to bear with and they need to be dragged out from wherever they’re hiding to be brought to justice at the ICC. There’s lots of evidence on them commiting genocide and crimes against humanity on top of the pillaging of the country’s resources and deliberate mass-starvation of the p[eople. nu nu double digit growth is unthinkable in a country where the trade deficit; inflation; unemployment; starvation; etc are so high and no oil or any other major commodity is discovered or extracted/manufactured. We still are not cap[able of sustaining ourselves with food, let alone talk about anything else. So please stop coming here with all the lies and try to spread the FEAR OF THE UNKNOWN – WHAT HAPPENS IF THEY LEAVE or telling us you don’t like them but since there is no opposition bla bla. As to those of us living inside Ethiopia, we have been dying (or being put into conditions) by the millions year after year. Therefore if it means a few hundred need to die to bring about the needed change then so be it! But we warn those who are prepared to commit these criminal assaults that they will be brought to justice! ONCE AND FOREVER WE JUSTICE AND DEMOCRACY SHALL PREVAIL IN OUR BELOVED NATION OF ETHIOPIA!