By F. Hager
Ethiopia’s ruling Tigrai Liberation Front (TPLF) would like us to believe Eritrea is threatening Ethiopian sovereignty. In truth, the war is a grand strategy to divert attention from human rights abuses and to crush all democratic opposition in Ethiopia. Such as strategy will allow the TPLF to stay in power indefinitely.
The push for war also emanates from Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s desire to destroy Isaias Afewerki of Eritrea and to replace him with a compliant Eritrean government. Under this scenario, Zenawi will emerge as the uncontested strongman and a regional power broker.
An impoverished Ethiopia cannot afford yet another war. If the last war is any indication, 100,000 or more could be killed and hundreds of thousands wounded. In financial terms, the war can easily cost anywhere from 10 to 12 billion birr.
We therefore call on all Ethiopians and friends of Ethiopia to speak up against this war before it is too late.
Why Ethiopians should not support Zenawi’s war
It is immoral. Ethiopia still cannot feed itself and every year the government goes begging for international handouts. It is therefore unconscionable for two of the poorest countries in the world to waste their human and financial resources to keep a minority elite in power.
There is no good reason for Ethiopia to invade Eritrea. One could endlessly debate who is worse — Meles Zenawi or Isaias Afewerki. But Zenawi had no qualms about pushing for Eritrea to break away from Ethiopia or sign away Badme after so much bloodshed. But now that his ego is being challenged, he wants to start a war.
Unproven charges. Zenawi claims Eritrea is undermining Ethiopian sovereignty. Once again, these are just allegations. He provides no proof. Unlike previous Ethiopian leaders, Zenawi was quick to strike a deal that made a nation of 70 million people landlocked. Why? It served his purpose of coming to power at the time.
Changing colors. Once in power, Zenawi began to double-cross his Eritrean mentor, Isaias Afewerki. The one-time rebel, Albanian-style Marxist Zenawi has turned into a regional snitch at the service of a big power quick to accuse the hands that fed him. Why? Because he smells a lot of money and the opportunity to stay in power.
Ethiopians need to think this war through
Political opposition. Pro-democracy forces in Ethiopia need to carefully think through issues surrounding this looming war and not fall into Zenawi’s trap of defending the motherland. They have to be clear that this is not Ethiopia’s war, but an optional war waged by a minority regime to confuse the issues and stay in power.
The Ethiopian military. The patriotic armed forces also need to think this war through. Young Ethiopians are being killed in the streets of Mogadishu to server Zenawi’s agenda. The lesson learnt from the 1998-2000 war with Eritrea is that 70,000 Ethiopians were sacrificed and hundreds of thousands wounded for no good reason.
Disfavored ethnic groups such as Oromos and Amharas were callously used for cleaning minefields. We all remember the bodies of young Ethiopian soldiers unceremoniously left on the battlefield to be devoured by vultures. As is customary with the TPLF, the dead and wounded were used and immediately forgotten – never to be mentioned again. Zenawi quickly agreed to hand over Badme – the flashpoint over which the war started.
Financial cost. Ethiopia wasted over 8 billion birr on the last Eritrean war. Imagine if that 8 billion was used to build dams that will irrigate Ethiopian farms. Imagine an Ethiopia that can feed itself, an Ethiopia that is not a beggar nation and a burden to the world.
Unfortunately, the TPLF’s knee jerk reaction to any crisis is to employ propaganda first and then follow that up with brute force. Such has been the pattern for the last sixteen years.
Why does Zenawi want to start a war?
He sold himself to the West as a budding, well-intentioned African democrat. The propaganda has turned out to be a lie. He has proven to be more autocratic than the Burmese junta or Robert Mugabe who is conveniently vilified by the Bush administration.
Zenawi’s democracy has no place for the separation of the judicial and executive branches. The twenty-month trial of pro-democracy opposition forces elevated the meaning of Kangaroo court to new heights.
Zenawi never gained the respect of the Ethiopian people. Whatever credibility he had came from foreigners. Now even foreigners have come to see the true colors of the Prime Minister. The TPLF capo really has no cloth.
It is under these circumstances that Zenawi is choosing to go to war. He is also afraid Eritrea will give sanctuary to opponents running away from persecution by the regime’s secret services.
Zenawi, the Ahmed Challabi of the Horn of Africa, is feeding the United States lies about Eritrea as he did about Somalia prior to the invasion. He wants to entangle the US in his squabbles and to underwrite his adventures. Emperor Yohannes would roll over in his graves if he new an Ethiopian leader had become a puppet mercenary of foreign powers.
Conclusion
Neither Somalis nor Eritreans are the real enemies of the Ethiopian people. The number one enemy is the ruling minority Tigrai Liberation Front. And, as such, all efforts should go to liberating Ethiopia from this secretive and evil force.
___________________
The writer can be reached at [email protected]
13 thoughts on “A US-backed Woyanne attack of Eritrea could come any day”
Meles never care! he is going to do it. we like it or not he is going to go to war just to stay in power a little longer. he doesnt care about the life will be lost, he is killing them any way. he doesnt care about the money will be spent it is not his. የበሰበሰ ዝናብ አይፈራም
It is the shabia’s government’s mistake which supports weyane to over run on shabia soon or later. isaias afework had lost the golden opportunity to punish weyane for once and for all after ethiopia’s may elcetion. ethiopians know very well how shabia has mishandeled EPPF , how kinijit’s activist ato kassahun hundi who escaped from weyane’s jail entered in eritrea , but shabia found him a very wise and intellectual,and arrested him with his more colleages in eritrea’s desert, now nobody knows where about he and his colleages. their chance of survival is less 10%. some concerned ethiopians from diaspora tried to contact with shabia highranked officials and discuss all issues around EPPF, especially about shabia’s influnce on EPPF,about EPPf’s leadership accountability and responsibility, but shabia’s asnwer was no. shabia’s plann is to replace melese by another with eritreawi’s blood prof muse tegegn. so shabia has lost it’s best chance by not responding accordingly for concerned ethiopians question. so let shabia test it. it is a matter of time.
ya 100% I will agree with the idea of the writer above. Neither Eritreans nor Somalis are our enemies but Woyyanes!!! Woyyane is provoking war on Eritrea to prolong his power by sucking our blood. You Ethiopian Unite Let’s fight our common enemy Woyyane!!!
I can’t agree more. War can only strengthen Meles and co. Should Meles goes to war and comes out intact, we should kiss a democratic change in our country goodbye! As usual if war breaks out, Meles will try to gather support in the name of ‘defending Ethiopia’ whereas the main purpose of the campaign will be to remove Issayas and crush democracy in our country once and for all. This war, if it comes at all, belongs to the TPLF junta and they will be responsible for the consequences. Our peaceful struggle to bring about democratic change should never lose direction… we should be very careful not to give any excuse to Woyane to hinder our peaceful struggle!
I wish the western sponsors of the Ethiopian Tyrant Meles Zenawi wake up and smell the coffee. I also call upon all NON TIGRES in the Ethiopian Defence Forces not to fight Mele’s war. Ethiopians should also rise up and send the Meles and his Tigre Tugs back to DEDEBIT!!!
Dear editor,
i read the report that EPRDF will launch at any time war on Eritrea which is adding pestillence to both nations. besides as i know from experience of the war 1998 to 2000 the reason for that costed more than 70000 lives was bassically baseless and to earn cheap popularity by EPRDF as well the Eritrean government the reason not being Badme or other irriconcillabe issues between the two governments.
As i am from both ethnic groups both of them have refuted me to participate in all terms.It is better to bring democratic rules and bring human rights in both country rather than investing on warfare as well it is better to build infrastructures to the people which toils without health facilities,clean pottable waters,roads and as a whole social secutiry in the land.
Once again, brilliant analysis by F. Hager. F. Hager is a rare Ethiopian patriot who makes excellent points without offending the majority of Somalis, Eritreans and Ethiopians.
Everyone knows Meles’ days are nearing an end. So we should all stay focused on fighting sources of division and diversion.
The time when East Africans rally around the common causes of fighting tyranny, poverty and HATRED has arrived, thanks to great contributions by the likes F. Hager and ER online.
My impression of Ethiopian Review so far has been that it has sacrficed so much to remain unique among online Ethiopian media sources. It is increasingly unbiased, non-partisan, visionary, ethical and a unifying/rallying factor.
Ermias Y.
Well said. What you said is very responsibly, and very true. If we only have enough responsible brothers like you that we would have lived in peace in the horn, sharing our resources. but mercenary leader like Meles will rather serve the interest of his masters at the expense of the people of the region and wouldn’t let us do that.
It is sad but it is true.
Peace
This is good job Eliase. But we need to sensitize the Ethiopian youth back home by sending such reports in Amharic.
The Ethiopian people have to resist TPLF from declaring another devastating senseless war. Enough is Enough!!!!!!!
It is difficult at this point to take a stand on the issue of an impending war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Yes war is horrendous and should be avoided. However for Ethiopia and Ethiopians Mellesse and Issayas are two faces of the same coin. They were born, brought-up, and flourished in violence and hatred. They can not live without violence. They both hate what ever Ethiopian.
I believe the author of this article is biased, one sided, and with a mission to do Issayas’ bidding. Who can forget that it was Issayas who first invaded Ethiopia in 1998, he is the one that organized various Ethiopian “ethnic based freedom fighters”, he is the one who recently supplied arms and trainers to Somalia’s Islamic Courts, and he is the one that organized a new Somali group to under mine the Ethiopian army in Somalia. Any self respecting and responsible government should not sit idly when the nation’s interests are under mined.
Not that Mellesse has not instigated, encouraged, and facilitated the pillaging of Ethiopia. Surely, Mellesse undermined Ethiopia’s economic and security interests in the past. Yes Mellesse has done it many times over starting from 1970s. And yes war is horrendous and should be avoided. The question is at what cost? Including giving up a nation’s strategic interests, survival, and its peace? Who would think in his right mind that Issaya has any type of good intention towards Ethiopia and Ethiopians? I don’t think so.
This war with eritrea must not be supported, rather objected to. Infact, we should collaborate with our eriteran brothers to end trannc in both ethiopia and eritrea.
Meles should not be allowed to win, if he does, he would stand as a major dictator in the horn of africa with the backing of the west. B that time, it will be too late for democrac to win in ethiopia.
Rest assured, the problem is Meles and his Government. If we want to realize economically and culturally strong East African Union (EAU), Eritrea isn’t the problem, People of Ethiopia aren’t the problem, Sudanis are not the problem. Get rid of the thug Meles, conduct elections, involve everybody, open up dialogue, open your eyes to the phenomenon of the 20th century of a universal economy and our people’s problem will be solved. Let’s stop thinking individually and start involving and thinking for everybody.
people think what is right not what you want. we all agreey woyane is our enemy and eritrea as well. dont forget eritrea is a child enemy of ethiopia. because we hate woyane it doesnt give make us right to like eritrea. tigreans are a real ethiopian not eritreans. meles is a dictator which does not represent any one. he is not a ppeople not a ppl choice. so guys dont forget eritreans they are always the number one enemy of ethiopian period.