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The Underside of the Eritrean Issue

Posted on , Updated on by Elias Kifle

By Messay Kebede

These days we catch the TPLF leaders openly claiming the paternity of the Eritrean independence and boasting about their achievement. More surprisingly, as though the issue of a second reunification of Eritrea with Ethiopia was back on the agenda, we hear them expressing their absolute opposition to such a development and their resolution to prevent it by all means necessary. Witness Sebhat Nega recently gave an interview in which he emphatically declares: “the EPRDF-led government of Ethiopia is the one and only force that would defend the independence of Eritrea” (Ethiomedia). In another interview, backing Sebhat, Meles reaffirms the unwavering commitment of his government to the Eritrean independence and its resolution to oppose fiercely any attempt to reverse the status quo. Since I do not see any credible force in Ethiopia today that would seriously threaten the Eritrean independence, I am puzzled by these interviews. Hence my question: what is the real purpose of these interviews?

Let me put Sebhat’s assertion in the context of the full interview. Sebhat seems to suggest that the movement that threatens the hardly won independence of Eritrea comes from none other than Isayas Afeworki and his associates. He finds that the past history of Shaebia has established beyond any doubt that it “is a treasonous group and can betray the struggle of the Eritrean people any time” (Ethiomedia). He supports the accusation by asserting that more than once the EPLF and its leadership have demonstrated a wavering stand on the issue of independence, as shown by the fact that the EPLF was ready to “consider a power-sharing arrangement with the Derg” (Ethiomedia). The agreement did not come into effect because of the opposition of the TPLF. In the words of Sebhat, “we were fearful that Shaebia would surrender but that fear was dispelled because we took measures that would block Shaebia from surrendering to the enemy” (Ethiomedia).Put otherwise, the TPLF forced the EPLF into accepting independence.

As though to vindicate Sebhat’s extraordinary insinuation, Isayas has recently declared his allegiance to a united Ethiopia by authorizing the publication of a magazine dedicated to the oneness of Ethiopia. While this official stand in favor of unity does not necessarily mean that Isayas is having second thought about the Eritrean secession, it does suggest that he has no ill-intention toward Ethiopia. Better still, directly contradicting the policy of fragmentation pursued by the TPLF, the Eritrean government puts on the role of a staunch defender of the Ethiopian unity.

In light of Sebhat’s and Meles’s fanatical support, the single question that deserves to be asked is the following: why are the TPLF leaders so adamantly opposed to the inclusion of Eritrea? Their opposition expresses more than a mere political inconveniency; it seems to convey a visceral fear, the sense of an impeding disaster. Listen to Sebhat, “we exerted tremendous efforts within and outside of the country and more than any other Eritrean political organization that Eritrea must break away from Ethiopia-and achieve independence” (Ethiomedia).

According to Sebhat’s explanation, the reason for imposing independence on Eritrea is simple: it has been a long standing commitment of the TPLF derived from the understanding that the Eritrean question is a colonial question. Unlike other nationalities within Ethiopia, the episode of the Italian colonization shows that “the question of Eritrea was different” (Ethiomedia). As was the case with other colonized countries, independence should have been the sole outcome of decolonization. In other words, the TPLF’s unwavering commitment to the independence of Eritrea originated from the conviction of supporting a just cause.

Needless to say, some such justification is an ideological discourse hiding the real reason, of which the TPLF leadership itself may not be fully aware. To get a sense of the real reason, we should review the nature of the relationship between the TPLF and the EPLF during their long fight against the Derg. It is now in the open that the relationship was based on many misunderstandings and had a rocky history of ups and downs. The collaboration survived because both needed each other to fight effectively the Derg. Any weakening of one of them meant that the Derg would turn with full force against the other. Such was the reason why, according to some dissident members, the TPLF had to send Tigrean combatants to rescue Eritrean fighters during the offensive of the Red Star Campaign. The defeat of the EPLF would have allowed the Derg to concentrate all its forces in Tigray and crush the TPLF.

Statements abound suggesting that when the TPLF finally succeeded in liberating completely Tigray from the Derg through a series of military successes, the faction within the TPLF advocating the independence of Tigray acquired momentum. However, a consensus was reached on a new political stand stating that the TPLF will pursue the fight against the Derg and liberate the rest of Ethiopia only under the condition that it remains the sole hegemonic force. The best way to achieve this political goal was to devise the policy of ethnicization and enforce the establishment of ethnic states. In thus dividing the Ethiopian polity along ethnic lines, not only would ethnicization undermine Ethiopian nationalism, but it would also give the upper hand to the TPLF through the creation of dependent ethnic parties.

This political vision had one insurmountable limitation, to wit, it could not include the EPLF. Not only was it utterly impossible to turn the EPLF into an dependent party, but it was also certain that it would become a formidable competitor for the control of Ethiopia. As Sebhat himself admits, “Shaebia was a strong national force, i.e. militarily. It was a well-organized group with a strong army” (Ethiomedia). With Eritrea inside Ethiopia, the scheme of the TPLF to remain the only hegemonic force would go into dust. Accordingly, Eritrea had to be pushed out of Ethiopia. All the more reason for so doing was that the Eritrean front had deliberately discarded ethnic identity in favor of a supra-ethnic or national identity transcending ethnic and religious differences. Whatever be the arrangement, the maintenance of Shaebia inside Ethiopia entailed the marginalization of the TPLF. Let alone Shaebia, even the OLF with much less resources and military power refused to be treated as an dependent partner because it did not owe its existence to the TPLF.

Even when Eritrea became independent, the cooperation could not continue. Economic and political rivalries poisoned the relationship of the two former partners. Conflicts multiplied leading to an atrocious war that resulted in the defeat of Eritrea and the signing of a peace treaty based on further misunderstandings. While some influential members of the TPLF advocated the removal of Isayas by marching on Asmara, the clique of Meles, to the great dismay of many, dismissed the idea. We now know why: it was less to protect Eritrean interests or ruling elite than to counter any situation that might resurrect the issue of reunification. Once Ethiopians control Asmara, who knows to what development such a control can lead?

To understand why today the TPLF leaders give interviews defending the Eritrean independence, we have to keep in mind the aftermaths of the Ethiopian election, which brought about the political and ideological bankruptcy of the present government. The TPLF leaders know that only the use of repressive methods can prolong their hegemony. They also recognize that they cannot sustain their repressive forces if another war starts with Eritrea. Now that they are bogged down in Somalia in addition to being massively contested inside the country, they need to subvert the Eritrean ruling faction by encouraging the internal opposition. Oh, they would like to resolve the conflict by accepting the Hague ruling in favor of Eritrea, but they realize that any territorial concession would anger Tigreans. What else is then left but to invent a situation of threat to Eritrean independence in the hope of presenting themselves as the only defender of that independence? The message to Eritreans is thus clear enough: if something happens to us, then your independence is in jeopardy, for we are your only friends, the only guarantor of the status quo.

On the other hand, Isayas is well aware that the best way to weaken the TPLF is to concretely support Ethiopian unity, thereby proving that his government is more concerned about the integrity of Ethiopia than its own government. The Eritrean government seems to admit that only the rise of nationalist forces can defeat the TPLF hegemony, obvious as it is that playing the ethnic card does no more than extend the TPLF rule. You defeat the TPLF if you deprive it of the political means to divide and rule. Slightly apprehensive, Aigaforum writes: “It is likely the dictator [Isayas] may have decided to try one more time to unseat the EPRDF government with the help of Hailu and Siye thus the cry for one Ethiopia.”
_________
Messay Kebede, Professor, Department of Philosophy, University of Dayton (Ohio), can be reached at
[email protected]

21 thoughts on “The Underside of the Eritrean Issue”

  2. First of all, i would like to thank professor Messay for his wonderful insight into the siuation in Ethiopia and recent developments in east africa. thanks for your courage to express your ideas on an article like this. What a lesson for the so-called well-educated ethiopians who are still in the grip of fear for TPLF repraisal!The most worst fear is the complete dissolation of ethiopia as a country.

    Now is the time for all ethiopians, educated or uneducated, to say whatever is nessary to advance the cause of freedom and democracy in Ethiopia.

    At a time when most educated ethiopians prefer to be onlookers, the contributions of individuals such as messay kebede should be applauded and encouraged.

    The words of Mr. Obang, ” Every one is a leader in the struggle for democracy in ethiopia” should encourage us to be bold and courageous enough to face the challenges lying ahead of us.

    yours,

  3. The speech made by Meles and Sebhat implies the request for creation of Greater Tigray (Abay Tigray) Uniting Tigray with Eritrea if they are not able to rule Ethiopia. At this time Article 39 will be played for political prostitution.

    Eritrean independence has its own cause. Blood ties and history could not be a reason for unification. Just like Somali who are divided between Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti and Somalia main land. The present day African territory was mapped by colonial powers, before colonialism Africa had no frontier. Hence worldwide colonial borders are respected from Arab Sahrawi in Morocco to East Timor in Indonesia. But not applicable to TLF. The Eritreans know that Ethiopia is not real danger to them, except the Ethiopian question for sea access, and the Eritreans are willing to give Assab port on lease for 100 years. (Ethiopia lost three ports in three decades) or from the international community a new port between Ertrea and Djibouti. TPLF is Ethiopia’s Enemy, 1) Creating a fake referendum 2) Not following legal procedures before liberating Eritrea 3) by not using the opportunity and they made Ethiopia land locked. 4) Creating a gap between Ethiopia and Eritrea. In December 1952, the UN declared Eritrea an autonomous unit federated to Ethiopia. In 1962, Eritrea was declared the 14th province of Ethiopia. The armed struggle began in September 1961 under the leadership of Idris Hamid Awate formed the first armed forces of the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF). Out of the inferiority complex of Tigrians and the need for creation of buffer zone by the EPLF, TPLF was created as unpaid mercenaries against Ethiopia. And Sudan collaborated by giving them military base and Port Sudan to import armament while denying for EPRP who were against cessation. The TPLF fought for independence of Tigray and creation of Greater Tigray (Abay Tigray) that is re uniteing Tigray and Eritrea (Like East and West Germany). Hence the present speech by Meles is application for Tigray to be the 7th Administrative Zone of Eritrea. This is true I have never seen Meles wearing or handling the Ethiopian flag for the last 17 Years? Experimenting Cultural revolution like Mao? Fed up?

  4. As always a suburb analysis. I had some how come to the same conclusion long time ago. I am happy now, people are understanding your well written and researched explanations.

    Thank you.

  5. This is by far the most insightful analysis on the ongoing Ethio-Eritrea (or TPLF vs. EPLF) conflict I have read in a while. It is a powerful piece of writing that forces a lot of people like me to think and re-think. Thank you Dr Messay.

  6. An excellent and timely analysis of these two tyrants of the region. Isaias has come to a clear understanding that he can not dismantle the TPLF power structure by using OLF, ONLF EPPF alone. He being a practical man, wanted to use the most effective and deadly means. As proven in the 2005 election, the multinational united Ethiopian struggle has been found the most popular among the Ethiopian people and eventually becoming most effective tool in challenging the Weyane regime. Isaias want to get into this bandwagon, support and nourish it to succeed, and eventually make it more deadly for Melese. Melese on the other side wanted to undermine this effort by blackmailing the Eritrean regime. He in plain and straight language is trying to warn Isaias that the forces he wanted to support are eventually his enemies and even unseat him power. He is offering him the “scratch my back and I will scratch yours” deal. Masked in their rhetoric, the fact on the ground remains the same, power and settling an old score seems the only interest between these two tyrants.

  7. Weyane is making a move to make another subvertive action against forces who are hiding in Eritrea. They are pulling strings to make life more miserable for Eritreans, especially, the government. They already got the 2% money suspended and another accusations are coming up. As soon as the whistle is blown to make Eritrea one of the Terorist Nations, they don’t even have to wait until UN says something, they will be in Asmara the next day.

    This action is the continuation of what they did in Somalia, they somehow find the legitimacy to go after any uprisal directed from somalia, now it is Eritrea. they already have the fake government Made In Ethiopia. All they got to do is send a few batallion and take Issayas out.

    This has been going on for a while now, Issayas knew about it, why the hell you think he is talking about United Ethiopia? it is because he knew his end is near and nothing is gonna get him out of this mess. And weyane is saying they worked more for Eritrea than him. That is not to impress anybody but the Eritrean people.

    But i am afraid the aim of all this conning came out of the fear that Melles and his co. are not most likely to get acceptance in the rest of Ethiopia. Because the situation is waiting to explode one of these days. And Ato Melles knows his days are numbered unless he devise some way he can get some legitimacy. That is a new Tigray United with Eritrea, where he will build his fortress against the devided Ethiopia.

    belie dat.
    lol

  9. Ethiopia has tens of thousands of scholars. But there are only a handful of them who have taken center stage in leading the Ethiopian political discourse. It is really a crying shame that most chose to keep silent. At the same time we Ethiopians are indebted to the few who are speaking out, such as professors Messay, Al and others. Prof. Messay, on this latest articles of yours you laid bare the hollowness of TPLF’s propaganda in regards to Eritrea. This is really a paradigm shifting article.

  10. ዶክተር መሳይ ጽሁፍዎ በማጠሩ ቅር ቢለኝም ከዚሕ ቀደም ያልዞረልኝን ጉዳይ ስላመላከተኝ ወድጀዋለሁኝ:: ከሁሉም ጭራው ውሻውን መቁላቱ የኤርትራውያኖቹን ቅስም የሚሰብር ክስተት ይመስለኛል::

    መቸም የኢትዮጵያ ፖለቲካ ለማንም አይመችም ኢትዮጵያዊነት ኢሳያስን የሚጠቅመውን ያክል ኤርትራዊነትን ደግሞ በጽኑ ይጎዳል ብየም እገምታለሁ::

    ተገኘ

  11. Interesting. However, it;s simply based on conspiracy theory, no evidence to support his speculation. I specilally do not agree with the histroy part. TPLF supported the Eritrean independence at the initial stage for no other reason but based on the theory of self-determination that it espoused as a reslut of its being a Marxist organization. The othe reason is to get miltary support. but, it’s not however, to get rid of Eritrea in order to be dominanat in Ethiopia.

  12. wonderfull Dr messay kebede as usual.Weyanes are preparing as much as they can to try the last chance with full forces to kick out issayas from melese’s mother land eritrea.What is very intersting Ato Issayas is an ethiopiawi by his origin[ both his mother and father were from tegeray] where as sebhat nega ,berket simon , samora, melese, yosef , seyum mesfin and others are from eritrea.Now the ball is in the hand of Ato Issayas afework. He needs to be very open and show his clear stand about ethiopia’s future unity in practics. Ato Isayass must dismantle all armed fronts like OLF, OLNF and SLF , TDM and othe ethnice based fronts and form one united fronts along with EPPF.This is the only solution which will save ato isayass from weyanes second round war against asmra. MOST ethiopians want to see such an action from Asmra as soon as possible.God bless ethiopia.

  13. Sibhat is telling us how his clique stands for Eritrea.
    Of course we have confirmed once again how his group stands for Eritrea equivalent to EPLF during the split of TPLF.
    As we recall the incident, the group of Siye Abrha was ready to over through the regime of Asmera.but as Sibhat told us the ambasader of Asmera who resides in Arat kilo defeated the plan of Esiye.so we have proven in this incident how the group of Sibhat stands for EPLF.they dismissed Siye and others due to the fact what Sibhat told us.

  14. TPLF give unreserved support and die for the cause of Eritrea because those who disguised under TPLF in the name of true Woyanne to serve the purpose of Eritrea. There is no anybody trustworthy other than Sibhat Nega who told us the naked fact.
    Iif you belive or not TPLF and Tigray were and still are the pretext and the means to achive the hidden agenda of those who fortified within TPLF in the name of Tigray and the psychic of true Woyanne.

  15. If president Isayas Afeworki is not smart enough,he may face the fate of Somalia by Meles .
    According to gossip and rumors,Meles is preparing to substitute Isayas by another loyal Eritrean opposition like he did in Somalia.
    What is he expecting is till the American official categorize Eritrean as a shelter of terrorism.

  16. We will talk in detail in the future about the past tragic accounts of the TPLF, EPRDF, and EPLF after we have achieved our noble goal – to unite our two countries: Ethiopia and Eritrea.

    The Most pressing issues, then, will be how we can do it. Randomly I have put ten recommendations that may help other people of the same school:
    1. When it is time to elect a prime minster in Ethiopia, let us we Ethiopians (perhaps, a million of us)get our passports and go home to cast our votes. Of course, for our safety and security reasons, we need the protection of the United Nations and the Human Rights agencies.
    2. We must encourage President Issaya to hasten his call for unity.
    3. We should avoid carping about some people whom we suspect as our adversaries.
    4. We must bring together the two Ethiopian Churches – one in exile and the other at home.
    5. We should avoid stigmatizing other Ethiopians because of their ethnicities, color, and religion. (Avoid saying: he/she is Gonderie, Gojamie, Tigrie….)
    6. Amharic has already been an official language, so we must stick to it; no change is needed. We should not waste our time arguing about it. I know our Southern brothers and sisters may not be comfortable with it.
    7. If we want Asmara to be the capital city of Ethiopia, and if such a change brings Eritrea to Ethiopia, let it be so.
    8. If other countries such as Somalia and Djibouti, inspired by the progress of democracy in Ethiopia, follow the footsteps of Eritrea and join Ethiopia, we should accept them unconditionally.
    9. the Ethiopian Tewahido Church has been a state church for a long time, but this has to end for the sake of “freedom of religion,” and it will be more advantageous for the church free of secular government.
    10. To capture the imaginations and hearts of the Ethiopian people to vote for the right person, we must first capture the fathers of their souls (yensiha-abat) – the Ethiopian clergies and sheiks.

  17. It is incredible to me how many Ethiopians are focussed in issues that have no urgent relevance to the astronomical problems that Ethiopia is facing. Why are we worried about Eritrea while our house is in a mess..Our first priority should be laying the foundation for democracy and development in Ethiopia. Like anywhere in the world, the state is the agent of development and we must find ways to force the ruling goverment to reconcile with all opposition parties. As it stands TPLF knows that as long as they maintain the status quo by controlling the military and the state bureaucracy, they could coerce obedience for years to come. The military, the security and the police force is controlled by indoctrinated cadres which would not hesitate to kill, torture or jail people anytime. It has also become abundantly clear that there is no independence of the judicary as the government continues to orchestrate charges and sentences anytime it faces serious challenges from opponents. In the face of such reality, it is beyond me why some scholars or opposition politicians are obsessed with issues like Eritrea which should be the least of our priorities. It is also beyond me why we are again and agion employing the same failed strategy and expect a different result. I am talking about the dispropritoinal focus on lobbying the western nations to change their policy towards in Ethiopia. Ethiopia does not have a significant strategic importance to the west and they are not going to make dramatic changes with their policy unless a disater of biblical proportion occurs. Whatever marginal interest they may have is arealdy been adeptly captured by TPLF which has jumped into the fight against terrorism band wagen. Hence, the maximum we could achieve by lobbying the west is may be a meaningless call for reconcilation or may be a minor redirection of budgetary aid. We need to think about other strategies that would compel TPLF to compromise.

  18. It is unsafe to take for granted the speculations of professor Mesay Kebed in relation to the interview Sibhat delivered concerning his groups resolute stand to defend and die for Eritrea once again if the worst comes against this 16 years old nation.
    The professor says, in concluding remark, the past joint operation and cooperation of EPLF and TPLF were based on mutual enemy bring down principle.
    The recent speech of Sibhat regarding Eritrea resulted from the election of may 2005 defeat of TPL and to tell the Eritrean in crystal clear language, “in the absence of TPLFyour freedom and to continue as a sovereign state is unreliable as you observed from the roar of chauvinists”
    If we take the raw fact as it is, of course it seems, but it is so shallow which doesn’t reveal the true colors of TPLF regarding their unwavering stand toward Eritrea.
    Based on this, my argument is appearing here after.
    TPLF was helping the cause of Eritrea from the stands of WoldeAb Woldemaria.
    The stand of Wold Ab was to form the Tigray Tigrdnt which was the direct plan of English colony when they were a protectorate of Eritrea.
    2nd in the history of Eritrean struggle, TPLF was the only political organization who acknowledged the colony of Eritrea. Not only that, Prime Minster Meles was the one who wrote a text book of Eritrea that starts and ends by fabricating how Eritrea was under colony.
    3rd within TPLF many Tigrean fighters are died and purged when they raise the issues of Eritrea against the interest of Sibhat.refere the death of general Hayelom Araya,Kinfe Gebremedihn,when he expelled Eritrean during the ethio Eritrea war.
    Dear professor, I may enumerate many facts how the speech of Sibhat is from the bottom hearts of him concerning Eritrea.
    Please refer the interviews of Aregawi Berhe the founder of TPLF in relation Sibhat and Eritrea which he delivered for different news media.
    Please know as who prepared the 1974 manifestos of TPLF,that states about the greater TIGRA and to be separated from Ethiopia without precondition..By the way the geographical shapes of the existing Tigray are the proposals of WoldeAb Woldemariam.

  19. What TPLF or EPLF are now doing or saying won’t surprise me at all because they are doing their job exactly according to their plans and advantages. However, the same Ethiopians never learn for almost a generation and still being pulled like a trailer without knowing where they will be going. Now Afeworki will be the uniter and liberator of Ethiopians. Please grow up by at least a little bit. I hope this forum is not theirs.

  20. Although support is appreciable from neighbors, we are the first responsible body to liberate our self. Libration outside us should be put as secondary alternates. Otherwise it is slavery. First let’s come into unity Ethiopian. The other is secondary.
    We are the libratory and who unite of our self.

  21. dr messay thank u soo much for the analysis its been a while since i heard this kind of deep digging in political sense and as eritrean we knew that once the war started,every eritrean kows the causes of the war,dr messay im sure u know more info and truth than what u wrote but giving us an entree before the main meal so some readers can understand is a good introduction,alot of replies r on point especially with 60 year old person comment and article 39,i happen to know someone that saw and read the original tplf abay tigray manifest and he assured me all thats happening was part of the plan except one bigger war to take place and divide ethiopia and tigray joining eritrea,war will be coming and countess of innocent lives will be lost from both side,da remaining question remains how would da world justify tigray joining eritrea?who would rule eritrea or abay tigray?tplf r really not trusted in eritrea thanx to 10yrs of eplf propaganda and eplf wont get a sole governing position and leave tplf empty handed.i think something wrong went in the plan maybe a disagreement but the fact remains tigrayan cant live without eritrea,there is something “fishy” going on.

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