In the wake of the death of Ethiopia’s long-serving PM, Meles Zenawi, two weeks ago, Graham Peebles argues this could be the best opportunity in a generation for Ethiopians to secure a more equal, more independent future.
The death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, announced on 22nd August after his mysterious two-month disappearance, presents a tremendous opportunity to Ethiopia. Let a new day dawn for the people, one filled with hope and fundamental change, where human rights and justice are respected, where freedom is encouraged and cultivated in all areas and where fear is banished to the past.
Meles rose to power as a revolutionary to overthrow a dictatorship. Ironically he too fell under the spell of power, and the freedom fighter became the dictator, the greatest obstacle to freedom and liberty. He had been in power since 1991, when the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) led a coalition of armed opposition groups in overturning the rule of Mengistu Haile Mariam.
Control and repression
No matter the repeated accolades and platitudes expressed by heads of State upon his passing, let us be clear: PM Meles Zenawi presided over an undemocratic regime that repressed the people, tolerating no political dissent, and as Human Rights Watch state in One Hundred Ways of Putting on Pressure, “since the controversial 2005 elections – Ethiopia has seen a sharp deterioration in civil and political rights, with mounting restrictions on freedom of expression, association, and assembly.”
In fact under Zenawi’s leadership the EPRDF government have trampled on the human rights of the Ethiopian people, centralised power, falsely imprisoned in large numbers of members of opposition parties and journalists and responded with brutal force to demonstrations after the 2005 sham poll – when security forces murdered over 200 innocent people on the streets of Addis Ababa. Not to mention the killings of hundreds of people in Gambella, the persecution of the people of Oromia, along with human rights violations in Afar and the Ogaden.
The media is party/state controlled, so too is the sole telecommunications company, as well as the judiciary, all of which is contrary to federal law as enshrined in the constitution. PM Meles, whose record, as the BBC rather generously phrased it, “has, at best, been patchy and rather uninspiring” has “orchestrated a discreet purge of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) and the administration, demoting, sidelining or reassigning key potential rivals and opponents.” As the Inter Press Service (IPS) succinctly put it, he “ruled with an increasingly authoritarian fist for more than two decades”. Let us hope such times will now be consigned to the murky past.
Unity – The way forward
If responded to with intelligence and love, patience and tolerance, the political space created by Meles’s departure could be a beginning in which firm and lasting steps towards an open, just, free civil society may be taken, broad ethnic participation encouraged and divisions set aside. A peaceful social revolution, long overdue, in which the perennial values of democracy are fostered, enabling the people to step out from the repressive shadow of the late prime minister and his EPRDF dictatorship and unite as one people, diverse yet unified, synthesising the many and enriching the country. Such is the opportunity at hand. As such, the keynote for the time ahead in Ethiopia should be unity, unity in diversity.
There are a great many ethnic and tribal groups in Ethiopia, some 77 according to the US State department, “with their own distinct language. Some of these have as few as 10,000 members.” The people of Oromo make up the single largest group and along with Amhara and Tigreans account for around 70% of the 85 million population. A further division exists along religious lines, with roughly 50% Orthodox Christian – living mainly in the highlands and 50% Muslim, inhabiting the lowland regions. Historically these two groups and the government have co-existed peacefully.
However, as the International Crisis Group’s (ICG) report ‘Ethiopia after Meles’ states:
“tensions are mounting between the government and the large Muslim community. Muslim committees have protested perceived interference in religious affairs. The authorities sought to link their demonstrations to Islamic extremism and terrorism, and Meles exacerbated matters by accusing the protestors of “peddling ideologies of intolerance”
This from a man who effectively outlawed all political dissent and banned freedom of expression. Christian Orthodox priests have also protested political interference and expressed their support for their Muslim brothers.
Such religious discord needs a sensitive response, not cliché name-calling. Predictably the T word has been wheeled out by a government that has sought to impose ideological control in every area of Ethiopian society, including the church. Let such repressive practices be buried along with Prime Minister Meles and let the current EPRDF government learn what is perhaps the greatest lesson of responsible government: to listen to the people yhey are in office to serve.
Designed to divide
Amharic is the official language and until recently was used in primary school instruction. It has been replaced in many areas by local languages such as Oromifa and Tigrinya, reinforcing ethnic divisions that contrary to the policy of ‘Ethnic Federalism’ designed by the TPLF, have been strengthened under the Meles premiership.
The highly centralised EPRDF has employed divide and rule tactics to weaken political opposition, fuel separation along ethnic lines, disempowering the community, engendering competition for land and natural resources as well as for government funds. Fragmented ethnic groups competing for resources and bickering amongst themselves have little time or energy to protest government policy and make easy prey for a regime seeking total control.
Division spawns conflict and, as the ICG found, “Exclusion and disfranchisement have provided fertile ground for ethnic and religious radicalisation, already evident in some lowland regions, where the ruling party exploits resources without local consent.” Massive land sales is one issue alluded to here; displacing thousands of indigenous people, forcing subsistence farmers and pastoralists off the land, destroying large areas of forest and wildlife habitat, that for a few dollars are turned over to international corporations who cultivate crops for their home market. All of which, let us add, without any form of consultation with local groups.
Democracy is participation, the opportunity before Ethiopia is to create an environment in which participation is encouraged and the people have a voice, where unity is seen as the means and the goal; where the Oromo people, those in the Ogaden, Amhara and Tigrae and the other ethnic groups are fully included and the development of community groups is facilitated.
The opposition and diaspora
Under the Meles regime not only have the main Ethnic groups been divided and disempowered, but so too has the diaspora opposition, too weak and ineffective. Fractured and despondent activists and opposition members of the various bodies need to unite at this time of uncertainty and opportunity and work collectively to establish a dialogue with the EPRDF government.
A national dialogue is needed in which opposition groups inside and outside the country and the people, for too long silenced, are allowed to participate and indeed be listened too. Such a move would set a new and inclusive tone and would engender hope that the ruling EPRDF recognises the mood of the country.
The diaspora’s role is crucial in any movement towards democracy in Ethiopia. Consensus amongst the various factions is essential and ideas of opposition, the pre-occupation of the past, that serve only to strengthen division and thus play into the hands of the EPRDF, forgotten. Constructive creative contributions should be encouraged, holding in mind the underlying principle of unity to soften government resistance to change and cultivate trust. As the ICG expresses it:
“Opposition forces may now be able to agree on a basic platform calling for an all-inclusive transitional process leading to free and fair elections in a couple of years. Such an arrangement should include all political forces armed and unarmed, that endorse a non-violent process to achieve an inclusive, democratically-elected regime.”
The Federal Constitution, written by the TPLF, full as it is of articles of decency and acceptability, disregarded by the government, is vague and ambiguous regarding the process of transition and succession in the event of the Prime Ministers death. On Aug 23, Al Jazeera reported that “The Ethiopian parliament has been recalled from recess to swear-in Zenawi’s successor, Hailemariam Desalegn, the deputy prime minister, who will most likely lead Ethiopia until 2015, when the current term of the ruling party comes to an end.” This is by no means certain, as Desagelen is reportedly unsure about accepting the mantle of PM.
A provisional cross party government is called for. One with broad support that would initiate reforms, repeal the unjust Anti Terrorist Proclamation and other repressive legislation, free the media, most importantly television and radio and begin to build a vibrant active civil society. Such progressive steps would establish the foundations of a strong democratic platform that could be developed up to and after the 2015 elections.
Responsible support and development
The development much championed in Ethiopia – where the partisan distribution of aid, including emergency food relief, is an open secret – does not correspond to a definition that those who believe in equality, justice, human rights, and freedom of expression would recognise. As Al Jazeera reported two weeks ago, “Zenawi has been praised for bringing development and economic growth to one of Africa’s poorest nations but his critics say that came at the cost of respect for democracy and human rights.”
To put Ethiopia’s much trumpeted economic growth in perspective, let us note that the average annual income in Ethiopia equates to just $3 a day. Food staples have quadrupled in price in the last four years, largely as a consequence of the extensive land sales, and according to Bloomberg Business, Ethiopia’s “annual inflation rate climbed to 34.7 percent in May as food prices surged, Inflation accelerated from 25.6 percent in the previous month, food prices jumped 41 percent in the year.“
In addition the gap is increasing between the majority who are poor and the small number of wealthy Ethiopians, who are primarily members of the ruling party, as IPS reported on 22 Aug, “development has yet to reach the vast majority of the country’s population. Instead, much of this wealth – and political power – has been retained by the ruling party and, particularly, by the tiny Tigrayan minority community to which Meles belonged.” These party members have followed the trend of other dictatorships and invested their accrued wealth overseas.
Development and democracy are closely related, not some western idea of democracy, but a living social movement of participation and inclusion, evolving out of the actions and creativity of the people themselves. An idea PM Meles did not recognise. The ICG report quotes Meles stating he did not “believe in bedtime stories and contrived arguments linking economic growth with democracy.”
In truth he did not believe in democracy at all. The price of his short sightedness and ideologically-driven policies has been paid by the people, whose human rights were ignored, and freedoms stolen.
Suppressed and silenced for too long, now is the time to listen to their cries for justice and freedom. All efforts should be made to encourage and mobilise the people of Ethiopia. It is not simply calm that is needed, as many have reiterated, but action. It is time for the people, so long inhibited to act, to demand their rights and express their vision for the future of their country.
Ethiopia is the recipient of over $3 billion of development aid a year, second only to Indonesia. The US, Britain and the EU, along with the World Bank are the main donors. In exchange for what amounts to over a third of Ethiopia’s annual budget, the west has a strategically placed ally in the Horn of Africa who will act when asked to and function as a military outpost for America who launch drone attacks from its soil.
Those supporting development within Ethiopia share the opportunity and responsibility for change within the country. Mediation between the various ethnic groups and political parties, encouraging openness and facilitating discussion is an obvious role that could and indeed should be undertaken.
Required action
In order to realise the opportunity before Ethiopia, certain basic steps showing a renewed adherence to international and federal law need to be taken immediately by the EPRDF:
All political prisoners must be released.
The internationally-condemned Anti Terrorist Proclamation repealed
Freedom of the media, assembly and dissent allowed
These are fundamental requirements in moving Ethiopia forward and establishing an atmosphere of hope that will encourage political and civil participation and safeguard against the potential radicalisation of opposition groups.
International donors need to recognise their collusion in a range of human rights abuses that have taken place under PM Meles and ensure these demands are acted on, linking development assistance to swift implementation. Human Rights Watch (HRW) has asked of “Ethiopia’s international partners [to] call on the government to support fundamental rights and freedoms in the country and a prompt rollback of repressive laws. Ethiopia’s government should commit to respect for human rights and core rights reforms in the coming days and weeks”.
Denied good governance for many years the people of Ethiopia have suffered much, too much and for too long. Let the current space afforded by the passing of PM Meles be filled with their united voices, articulating their grievances, expressing their hopes and concerns, and with the responsible support of international friends and partners demand fundamental change, freedom and social justice, long overdue.
Graham Peebles is Director of The Create Trust, a UK registered charity, supporting fundamental social change and the human rights of individuals in acute need. He may be reached at [email protected].
Mr. Obang Metho encourages Ethiopians to not be discouraged by the fictionalized legacy of Meles because any government that stages the mourning for its deceased leader is a government in trouble. It is a sign of internal and external weakness and marks the beginning of the end of a dictatorship. The people of Ethiopia should take hold of this opportunity to demand intellectual freedom, rights, justice and a peoples’ government.
My fellow Ethiopians,
Our difficult journey together with Meles at the helm is over. The official TPLF-controlled mourning for him has ended. Many of you may be worried about the unknown direction of our country following Meles’ death, the infighting among the TPLF insiders for power and the absence of a strong alternative on the ground. There is an answer and it involves you at the grassroots.
We now need the people of Ethiopia, many of whom have not previously been involved, to take ownership of the direction we take as a people, like has been done successfully in other countries like Benin, Ghana, Zambia and South Africa, in order to ensure that our people—the primary stakeholders of Ethiopia—are controlling and managing our country’s transition from dictatorship to a free and democratic Ethiopia.
Together we begin a new day; yet, most of us are still reeling from the shock of how Meles’ brutal authoritarian legacy was publically portrayed so glowingly by both insiders and foreigners. What did we expect other than a charade? Probably nothing marked the Meles era more than its creation of a “sham Ethiopia” through pervasive intellectual dishonesty and the destruction of the people and the watchdog institutions meant to challenge it.After this week’s extreme measures to give the pretense that Meles was loved by the people—when he so brutally tyrannized them—should make us, the people, all the more determined to dismantle the foundational pillar of his and other dictatorships—intellectual tyranny. If we do not want to “live a lie,” each of us must start speaking the truth today—it is a powerful weapon against an evil system.
The famous Czech dissident, Vaclav Havel, who later became the country’s first president, wrote in his essay, “The Power of the Powerless,” how the “crust presented by the life of lies is made of strange stuff. As long as it seals off hermetically the entire society, it appears to be made of stone.… [until] a single person breaks the rules of the game, thus exposing it as a game—everything suddenly appears in another light and the whole crust seems then to be made of a tissue on the point of tearing and disintegrating uncontrollably.”
Meles feared intellectual freedom above all threats and waged an unceasing war against it; using his abilities to ruthlessly and systematically attack it from every possible angle. He was effective. It therefore should not surprise us that some of those eulogizing him created an “imaginary” Meles that none of us knew. Meles was a master illusionist, able to persuade or intimidate many to his point of view, carefully “managing” any facts—or voices—from the ground that might “interfere” with achieving his objectives. This was a man who cared so greatly about his image that he brought the “art of deception to a new level.” No wonder his funeral and now his legacy are being so highly staged. The fact that the bogus mourning of Ethiopians could only be accomplished through intimidation, bribery and force is only further evidence of this manufactured legacy.
As many of our people were forced to cry or to come out to publically mourn his passing, I hear the bitter irony in the stories of some of them. For example, one of those forced to publically weep for Meles was an Anuak mother from Gambella whose son was a victim of the Anuak genocide. As you may recall, the plans for the genocide, called “Operation Sunny Mountain,” began in the presence of Meles in his own office, according to official documents. The local government prevented this mother and others who had lost loved ones from an outward display of sorrow at the time as well as at memorial services as it would have cast a negative light on the regime. When recently ordered to cry for Meles, this mother refused. She said, “I could not cry when my own son was murdered by the Ethiopian National Defense Forces; why would I cry for the man who was in charge of the defense forces?”
In Meles’ fictional Ethiopia—a falsified Ethiopia controlled by a narrow-minded, ethno-centric model of nations and nationalities that denied the people their rights based on ethnicity, rather recognizing their rights based on their humanity—Meles was called a visionary leader and a champion of the poor. Admittedly, some did benefit, particularly those beneficiaries from his own minority ethnic group—7 % of the population—and his own region as well as those chosen as demonstration sites funded by international donors; but outside of these, many Ethiopians are worse off as they have been neglected; or worse yet, they have lost their land and livelihoods to regime cronies and their foreign partners.
Had many Ethiopians truly been better off because of Meles, Ethiopians would have honestly wept for him without coercion. Those in government jobs and those students attending government schools would have freely mourned rather than been forced to do so on the streets of Addis. Even patients in hospitals were forced from their beds out to the streets. Security agents would not have made lists of people required to cry on the streets if these people would have truly benefited from Meles’ policies.
Others would not have been beaten when they resisted, like the political prisoner who refused to cry inside prison before the cameras of the government-controlled Ethiopian Television station. To the outsider, it may look like Meles had a popular following, but to insiders, it was a demonstration reminiscent of the mourning for North Korean dictator, Kim Jong-Il last December. Deception has been a tool of the government and must be exposed.
Meles has won the war against intellectual freedom while he lived. Just because he is gone does not mean that the system that promoted and maintained false delusions is gone. The structures supporting this dictatorship—like intellectual dishonesty—must be dismantled and reformed or the movement to freedom and democracy of the people will be hijacked.
The national crisis in our homeland is not only about one ethnic group, one religious group, one regional group or one political group. For millions of Ethiopians living within the country, every new day brings the harsh realities of life under a system of dictatorship, but today, as never before during this regime, we have an opportunity. The dictator is gone and the system of dictatorship remains, but please understands this very clearly; the system requires the cooperation of millions of Ethiopians to sustain it. Do not do it.
We have an opportunity before us and if we are ever to see a free and democratic Ethiopia, we must seize what may be our God-given moment to reclaim ownership of our country. We the people of Ethiopia can join together, wherever we are, in restoring truth to our land as the cornerstone of a free society.
When the SMNE was formed in 2008, we envisioned a mission where Ethiopians would not be separated by ethnicity, but where we might all come together by individually and collectively doing our share to solve our common problems as one people and as one family—an Ethiopian family—for we are people who come from the same land, who breath the same air and who have the same thirst for freedom. We have now lived under a dictatorship for forty years and it has brought us to a dead end.
We in the SMNE, along with others, can work on a vision and plan for the country, but without the backing of the people, even Mandela could not lead. Only a force of Ethiopians, demanding their God-given rights by making noise in the public square, will give voice to the people and provide the legitimacy and authority needed for change.It will take a pluralistic voice of all Ethiopians—from every part of our country, from every ethnic group, religious group, and political group—to be heard.
Start by reconciling with your neighbor. Take his or her hand in yours as together we move forward to replace a dictatorial system with a free and democratic Ethiopia. Speak the truth! Expose the lies! Dismantle the criminalization of free speech! Be the single person who breaks the rules of the game! This applies to all Ethiopians, including the TPLF and EPRDF members, not only those opposed to Meles. It includes those who glorified him and who maintained his ethnic-based-apartheid system; for this system is coming to an end.
We hear the rumblings of the shaken unity of the TPLF/EPRDF from within and know its foundation is crumbling. It is a matter of time before it will collapse. It is like the African tree which only bears such bitter fruit that no one eats it—even the wild animals and birds. Yet, its fruit is so heavy that its weight can break its own branches and bring down the whole tree. The fruit of the tree brings its own destruction by itself. In other words, the sham policies of the TPLF have produced bitter fruit the majority of Ethiopians does not want and its infighting and rejection by the people will soon bring it down by itself.
Now, the TPLF central committee officials are trying to avoid their demise by refusing to give over power to those outside their own ethnic group. This is seen in their reluctance to appoint Hailemariam Desalegn, the Acting Deputy Prime Minister, as interim prime minister or by even refusing to call him acting prime minister. He is from the wrong tribe and therefore is not trusted by the TPLF inner circle. Meles put him into this position give the charade of diverse ethnic governance for public view, but it is now backfiring on the TPLF.
In conclusion, the TPLF/EPRDF has reached a dead end and has nowhere to go and now the only driver who knew how to quickly maneuver the ethnic train from impending destruction is gone. The collision of the ethnic train with the will of the people is imminent. The only way to rescue Ethiopians, including the TPLF/ERPDF supporters, is through reconciliation and the restoration of intellectual freedom and justice based on mutually beneficial interests.
The SMNE has been working behind the scenes to play a collaborative role in a meaningful people-empowered process to make sure that easy short-cuts do not hijack a movement to a transformed and reformed Ethiopian society.
May God help us, give us courage and protection, and be honored in all we do. May He show us the right road to truth, freedom, justice and reconciliation!
THE death of Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia’s prime minister dictator, on August 20th reveals much about the country he created. Details of his ill health remained a secret until the end. A short broadcast on state television, late by a day, informed Ethiopians that their “visionary leader” of the past 21 years was gone. He died of an unspecified “sudden infection” somewhere abroad. No further information was given. In the two months since the prime minister’s last public appearance the only local Ethiopian newspaper that reported his illness was pulped, its office closed, and its editor arrested. Further details of Mr Meles’s death surfaced only when an EU official confirmed that he died in a Brussels hospital.
A towering figure on Africa’s political scene, he leaves much uncertainty in his wake. Ethiopia, where power has changed hands only three times since the second world war, always by force, now faces a tricky transition period. Mr Meles’s chosen successor is a placeholder at best. Most Ethiopians, whatever they thought of their prime minister the dictator, assumed he would be around to manage the succession. Instead he disappeared as unexpectedly as he had arrived. He was a young medical student in the 1970s when he joined the fight against the Derg, the Marxist junta that then ruled Ethiopia. He went into the bush as Legesse Zenawi and emerged as “Meles”—a nom de guerre he had taken in tribute to a murdered comrade.
Who exactly was he? As leader of the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, an ethnic militia from the country’s north, he presented himself to his countrymen as a severe, ruthless revolutionary; yet Westerners who spoke to him in his mountain hideouts found a clever, understated man who laid out, in precise English, plans to reform a feudal state. In 1991, after the fall of the last Derg leader, Mengistu Haile Mariam, the 36-year-old Mr Meles (pictured above) took power, becoming Africa’s youngest leader. He had moral authority as a survivor of various famines. Western governments and publics, who became aware of Ethiopian hunger through the Band Aid and Live Aid charity concerts, gave freely. Mr Meles was often able to dictate terms under which donors could operate in Ethiopia and turned his country into Africa’s biggest aid recipient.
Where others wasted development aid, Ethiopia put it to work. Over the past decade GDP has grown by 10.6% a year, according to the World Bank, double the average in the rest of sub-Saharan Africa [false]. The share of Ethiopians living in extreme poverty—those on less than 60 cents a day—has fallen from 45% when Mr Meles took power to just under 30%. Lacking large-scale natural resources, the government has boosted manufacturing and agriculture. Exports have risen sharply. A string of hydroelectric dams now under construction is expected to give the economy a further boost in the coming years.
The flipside of the Meles record is authoritarianism. Before his departure he ensured that meaningful opposition was “already dead”, says Zerihun Tesfaye, a human-rights activist. The ruling party controls all but one of the seats in parliament, after claiming 99.6% of the vote in the 2010 elections. It abandoned a brief flirtation with more open politics after a vote five years previously, when the opposition did better than expected. The regime subsequently rewired the state from the village up, dismantling independent organisations from teachers’ unions to human-rights groups and binding foreign-financed programmes with tight new rules. Opposition parties were banned and their leaders jailed or driven into exile; the press was muzzled.
Internationally, Mr Meles made friends with America, allowing it to base unarmed armed drones at a remote airfield. He also liked to act as a regional policeman. His troops repeatedly entered neighboring Somalia (they are slowly handing over conquered territory to an African Union peacekeeping force). Hostilities have at times flared along the border with Eritrea. Mr Meles cowed his smaller neighbour and persuaded the world to see it as a rogue state. This in turn helped him restrain nationalists at home. In his absence, hardliners on both sides may reach for arms once again.
The nature of power in Mr Meles’s Ethiopia has remained surprisingly opaque. On the surface, the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front is a broad grouping encompassing all of the country’s ethnic factions. Like the liberal constitution, it is largely a sham. Real power rests with an inner circle of Mr Meles’s comrades. They all come from his home area, Tigray, which accounts for only 7% of Ethiopia’s 82m people. His acting successor is an exception. HaileMariam Desalegn, the foreign minister, is from the south. His prominence raises hopes that the long dominance of the Habesha, the Christian highlanders of the Amhara and Tigray regions, may be diluted. But few think he has enough standing to exert real control.
Power will be wielded by Tigrayans such as Getachew Assefa, the head of the intelligence service; Abay Tsehaye, the director-general of the Ethiopian sugar corporation; and Mr Meles’s widow, Azeb Mesfin. An MP, she heads a sprawling conglomerate known as EFFORT, which began as a reconstruction fund for Tigray but now has a host of investments. It is unclear whether any of the Tigrayans will seek the leadership of the ruling party or be content to wield control from the sidelines. A struggle among this elite would be a big threat to stability.
NAIROBI (NEW YORK TIMES) — After two months of mysterious absence, Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia’s prime minister dictator, is finally accounted for: He’s dead.
By seeking medical treatment abroad he won admission to the club of African leaders who fled the health systems over which they presided in order to save their own necks.
Perhaps it’s fitting, then, that Meles died at 57, the average life expectancy for his still underdeveloped country. More telling still, however, was the paranoid bureaucracy that kept the details of his illness out of Ethiopian newspapers for two months. This, too, is the legacy of a strongman wicked man.
Ethiopia, the second most populous nation in Africa, has dizzying economic potential. But its anxiously planned, autocratic governance structure has been jolted by Meles’s death. Even as Ethiopians mourn celebrate, the coming uncertainty illustrates the danger of a personality-centric development agenda.
Since 1991, Meles had presided over the unapologetic consolidation of state power and regional influence, often by force. Few of the region’s affairs unfolded outside of Meles’s personal involvement.
Endorsing the Chinese model of state capitalism and central management, Meles was able to launch ambitious projects. These included an electricity grid connecting the rural areas where 83 percent of the population live to hydroelectric power from the Nile River, as well as a $23 billion pipeline to redirect oil from South Sudan to the port of Lamu in Kenya.
Pressing the flesh at the World Economic Forum or global climate talks in Durban and Copenhagen, he spoke for African interests with considerable slavish charm. His cheerleading of food security in Ethiopia and beyond was genuinely refreshing. And, of course, the G.D.P. growth rates for Ethiopia have hovered in the double digits for the last five years [false].
But Ethiopia, like other “African lions,” has work to do before its roaring economy actually reaches its enormous, impoverished population. Indeed, many of Ethiopia’s recent successes were undergirded less by the country’s inherent promise than by Meles’s personal advocacy, ideology and assurances.
Meles’s noted fluency with culture, economics and regional politics endeared him to China, Turkey and the warring governments in Sudan and South Sudan — not to mention major donor countries like the United States and Britain, which bankrolled Ethiopia’s development efforts in exchange for Meles’s strong hand in regional security policy.
His tenure also saw wars with three of Ethiopia’s neighbors — in the case of Eritrea, partly because of a deeply personal struggle with President Isaias Afwerki. And though Meles’s diplomatic dexterity kept aid coming — and critiques of his human rights record off the table — as Amnesty International points out, Meles’s self-centered reign has left Ethiopian prisons “packed to the seams with suspected political opponents — from urban intellectuals to rural farmers.” With increasing fervor, he pulped opposition parties and erected one of the most restrictive media and surveillance environments in the world.
Even as his East African neighbors leaped ahead on telecommunications and Web infrastructure, Meles stoppered conversation. When I visited Ethiopia in March, the queue for a mobile SIM card was days long; this summer, his government sought to criminalize Skype.
Now Meles’s successors will need to manage his blueprints without the benefits of his unusual mix of erudition and intimidation. [BS]
Dayo Olopade is a journalist covering global politics and development policy. She is writing a book about innovation in Africa.
By the International Crisis Group (ICG) | Africa Briefing N°89 22 Aug 2012
OVERVIEW
The death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who had not been seen in public for several months, was announced on 20 August 2012 by Ethiopian state television. The passing of the man who has been Ethiopia’s epicentre for 21 years will have profound national and regional consequences. Meles engineered one-party rule in effect for the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and his Tigrayan inner circle, with the complicity of other ethnic elites that were co-opted into the ruling alliance, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). The Front promised freedom, democracy and ethnic devolution but is highly centralised, tightly controls the economy and suppresses political, social, ethnic and religious liberties. In recent years, Meles had relied ever more on repression to quell growing dissent. His successor will lead a weaker regime that struggles to manage increasing unrest unless it truly implements ethnic federalism and institutes fundamental governance reform. The international community should seek to influence the transition actively because it has a major interest in the country’s stability.
Despite his authoritarianism and poor human rights records, Meles became an important asset to the international community, a staunch Western ally in counter-terrorism efforts in the region and a valued development partner for Western and emerging powers. In consequence, Ethiopia has become the biggest aid recipient in Africa, though Meles’s government was only able to partially stabilise either the country or region.
Ethiopia’s political system and society have grown increasingly unstable largely because the TPLF has become increasingly repressive, while failing to implement the policy of ethnic federalism it devised over twenty years ago to accommodate the land’s varied ethnic identities. The result has been greater political centralisation, with concomitant ethnicisation of grievances. The closure of political space has removed any legitimate means for people to channel those grievances. The government has encroached on social expression and curbed journalists, non-governmental organisations and religious freedoms. The cumulative effect is growing popular discontent, as well as radicalisation along religious and ethnic lines. Meles adroitly navigated a number of internal crises and kept TPLF factions under his tight control. Without him, however, the weaknesses of the regime he built will be more starkly exposed.
The transition will likely be an all-TPLF affair, even if masked beneath the constitution, the umbrella of the EPRDF and the prompt elevation of the deputy prime minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, to acting head of government. Given the opacity of the inner workings of the government and army, it is impossible to say exactly what it will look like and who will end up in charge. Nonetheless, any likely outcome suggests a much weaker government, a more influential security apparatus and endangered internal stability. The political opposition, largely forced into exile by Meles, will remain too fragmented and feeble to play a considerable role, unless brought on board in an internationally-brokered process. The weakened Tigrayan elite, confronted with the nation’s ethnic and religious cleavages, will be forced to rely on greater repression if it is to maintain power and control over other ethnic elites. Ethno-religious divisions and social unrest are likely to present genuine threats to the state’s long-term stability and cohesion.
The regional implications will be enormous. Increasing internal instability could threaten the viability of Ethiopia’s military interventions in Somalia and Sudan, exacerbate tensions with Eritrea, and, more broadly, put in question its role as the West’s key regional counter-terrorism ally. Should religious or ethnic radicalisation grow, it could well spill across borders and link with other armed radical Islamic groups.
The international community, particularly Ethiopia’s core allies, the U.S., UK and European Union (EU), should accordingly seek to play a significant role in preparing for and shaping the transition, by:
tying political, military and development assistance to the opening of political space and an end to repressive measures;
encouraging the post-Meles leadership to produce a clear roadmap, including transparent mechanisms within the TPLF and the EPRDF for apportioning the party and Front power Meles held and within parliament to lead to an all-inclusive, peaceful transition, resulting in free and fair elections within a fixed time; and
helping to revive the political opposition’s ability to represent its constituencies, in both Ethiopia and the diaspora.
As the Executive Director of the Solidarity Movement for a New Ethiopia (SMNE), I want to call on the Ethiopian people to remain calm and cautious during this time of unknown certainty.
Meles Zenawi, prime minister of Ethiopia—the darling of the West, but a ruthless strongman to his own people—has passed away. After two months of rumors and speculation about his death or incapacitation, the government of Ethiopia finally announced his death. No one expected, even two months ago, that Meles’ 21-year long, iron-fisted control over the one-party government of the Tigrayan Peoples’ Liberation Front (TPLF)—which controlled the coalition government of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)—would come to such an abrupt end. Meles’ absence will challenge the entire system and we must be ready, but patient.
For years, opposition groups, as well as key stakeholders within and outside of Ethiopia, recognized the ability of this one man to either hinder or advance agendas of others to his own benefit, whether in Ethiopia or in the region. Now that he is gone, the TPLF/EPRDF system that maintained him and dominated every sector of society in Ethiopia, although still in place, may have taken a deadly hit. The future is uncertain as the new regime faces new challenges from inner TPLF power struggles, splits between Tigrayans, the renewed vigor from opposition groups and now, new demands from religious groups, both Muslims and Christians, for freedom from government interference in their religious affairs.
As our dictator has been taken out of the game, Ethiopians may suddenly have a unique opportunity to win their struggle for a healthier, more inclusive and more prosperous Ethiopia. Today is a new day. We are not going to celebrate the death of somebody but must still carefully appraise the real obstacles ahead that may not have been clearly revealed to outsiders or understood by us.
Meles had two faces—one for outsiders and one among Ethiopians. To outsiders, like within the African Union, Meles was perceived to be a “uniter” but to Ethiopians, he maintained his power through fomenting division. He was the architect of the Ethiopian system of ethnic federalism, which discouraged a national identity as it accentuated ethnicity; all used as a divide and conquer tactic to maintain control of the majority by a minority group comprised of only 6% of the population. As a result, we all know that the Ethiopia of today is more divided by ethnicity than ever before.
To state players concerned about global security, Meles played a role in the War on Terror and in sending troops to Somalia; but to his own people, Meles was our home-grown terrorist who most threatened our lives and futures and radicalized neighboring Somalia.
Development assistance from outside nations and organizations flowed into the country and Meles was seen as a “new breed of African leaders,” but to the people, especially outside of Meles’ own region, outside of Addis and outside of special project areas; development monies were often linked to political views or lost to corruption.
Repeatedly, outsiders have given Meles an unchallenged legacy for bringing millions out of poverty; but on the ground, the money has not trickled down to the people. Global Financial Integrity instead gave recent documentation of billions of USD dollars leaving the country in illicit capital leakage—$11.3 billion from 2000 to 2009— money from economic growth confiscated by cronyism rather than inclusive capitalism. Yes, Meles has secured large amounts of foreign investment, especially in agricultural land and resources, but millions of Ethiopians have or eventually will be forced off their land; with no say, no compensation and no provisions for starting a new life. These small farmers are now becoming dependent on foreign aid for the first time.
These are great challenges for the future for any leader. The newly appointed transitional Prime Minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, will have a critical role to play. Whether he will take the side of the people or will attempt to continue the status quo, is unknown; however, if he rises to the challenge of advancing the interests of the people, it will require undoing the machinery of suppression so carefully put into place by this regime—like the Anti-terrorism law that has imprisoned democratic voices and the Charities and Societies Proclamation that has eliminated civic institutions, replacing them with pseudo organizations controlled by the regime.
It will require implementing broad reforms: creating an independent judiciary system, freeing the media, advancing the Internet, forming an independent election board and initiating all those key parts of any well- functioning democratic state. He must also release thousands of political prisoners who are only imprisoned because they became enemies of the regime simply for living out their consciences.
As we face these next, uncertain days and weeks ahead, if we are to succeed as a people and avoid violence and revenge after years of simmering tensions, anger and frustration among us, we Ethiopians must see each other as one people—the Ethiopian people—and part of our family of humanity. This is not a time for vengeance or destruction, but is a time to start reconciling with each other for the sake of the whole country. This is the beginning of reform.
We are calling for dialogue among Ethiopians. We are also calling on those western state players, who supported Meles, to now support the organizations who are working to establish democracy, to preserve the territorial integrity of the country, to build institutions and to reject appeals of ethnic-based violence. We know that Meles received that support, despite his many human rights abuses and the repression of his people, because of the perceived greater interest in global security and stability in a geo-politically strategic region; but now it is time to reassess who will be the best long-term partners. It is the Ethiopian people. The man that charmed the west is now gone. It is a critical time to support genuine reforms and the people and opposition groups working for broad-based and meaningful change that can galvanize the people and serve their interests while enhancing the mutually shared interests of global partners and foreign investors.
From the beginning, the SMNE was established as a non-violent, non-political social justice movement to bring the diverse people of Ethiopia together; creating security, stability and greater prosperity through the restoration of justice, built on the principles of putting “humanity before ethnicity” and caring about “others” within Ethiopia and beyond because “no one is free until all are free.”The SMNE was also created to strengthen institutions which would promote truth, freedom, democracy, equality, civility, accountability and transparency in order to bring about a more robust society that could move from its dependency on others for its basic daily needs to greater independence.Ethiopia is a rich nation in people and resources. Good governance, democratic values, ethical practice, industry and inclusive capitalism can transform Ethiopia from its image of starvation, misery and suffering to a country that can contribute to the well being of others. Ethiopians want to seize this opportunity now.
We in the SMNE call for calm among the people and restraint for the defense forces. Meles had a choice to be loved by the people when he ousted Mengistu in 1991, but he did not take it. We must be careful now to not create ingredients for fighting against each other either now or in the future. Ethiopian Defense troops and security forces with guns should not use them against the people. The taking of one life is too many.
We Ethiopians have already shed too many tears; we have already spilled too much blood; we have already lived with too much pain and sorrow; we have already felt too much desperation; and, we have already lost too many of our people to death, abuse or hardship while trying to find a better life outside of Ethiopia. It is time to reclaim, rebuild and transform Ethiopia into a New Ethiopia where people want to stay. It will require all of us working together by each doing our share.
In conclusion, everyone knows how Meles favored his own ethnic group, the Tigrayan, and his own region, Tigray, and even more his own birthplace of Adwa, but the Tigray should not be afraid. If you have not committed crimes, you have nothing to fear. You are part of us and will be part of the New Ethiopia. As we have said before, the SMNE stands to defend and to protect the well being of each and every Ethiopian individuals and groups. You are part of that. We cannot build a New Ethiopia without you. Our enemy is the system, not an ethnicity, a region, a town or a religion. You do not have to hold back. You are our brothers and sisters. With God’s help, we can find healing for the past, reconciliation for the present and hope for the future. May God bless Ethiopia!
The nature of power in Mr Meles’s Ethiopia has remained surprisingly opaque. On the surface, the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front is a broad grouping encompassing all of the country’s ethnic factions. Like the liberal constitution, it is largely a sham. Real power rests with an inner circle of Mr Meles’s comrades. They all come from his home area, Tigray, which accounts for only 7% of Ethiopia’s 82m people. His acting successor is an exception. HaileMariam Desalegn, the foreign minister, is from the south. His prominence raises hopes that the long dominance of the 