By Wodaje Ketema
If a system is malfunctioning, says Tony Blair in his new book, Tony Blair A Journey (2010: 249), it does need to change, whether that change be gradual or abrupt. There is a regime that is oppressive and dictatorial, but may decide to go into the right direction of reform despite it is slow; but there is also a regime whose very nature lies in its oppression. This regime will not change, not by evolution, not by the exercise of its own will- because that will is directed towards oppression- and for a long time, at least, it will not change by the will of the people who, because they are oppressed, lack the means to overthrow the regime.
Tunisia had a malfunctioning system, a system whose very nature lies in its oppression. It had a system that failed to address the will of the people, which is freedom- the freedom from fear, the freedom from persecution, the freedom from hunger and death and the freedom from “I now for you” mentality. Ben Ali’s regime had stifled those freedoms for the last 20 plus years, but couldn’t sustain that oppression for long. The younger generation, the globalised generation, couldn’t accept a 19th c system, a system that makes God’s children slaves and sub humans. The Tunisian boys and girls decided to dismantle that archaic system, and did they succeed. President Ben Ali was disgracefully overthrown and fled to Saudi Arabia to join another dictator there. However, the journey of Tunisia is not yet finished; the daunting task is still ahead. But, they have repossessed the “ball of choice”. They have now a choice- a choice to choose freedom or a choice to choose slavery. That is not the case in Ethiopia and in most parts of Africa.
Zenawi’s regime is a carbon copy of Ben Ali’s regime except that the former is also a racist. Like Ben Ali’s regime, Zenawi’s regime depends on oppression, killing and persecution of Ethiopians; but unlike the former, the later encourages people to fight and kill each other with its divide and conquer policy. That is the difference between the two regimes. Both are dangerous, but Zenawi’s is evil.
I have no doubt that the fire that started in Tunisia will expand to Ethiopia and devour Zenawi’s regime in a short period of time. Given the existing economic turmoil and political repression, we will witness a revolution of a huge magnitude sooner than later. The question is not when that revolution will exactly occur , but what consequence will it have and who is to lead it responsibly when that revolution occurs. Will the fire stop after destroying Zenawi’s archaic regime or will it expand to devour his ethnic group ?
The experience of 2005 election tells that there will be more bloodshed before Zenawi quits power. It could be more than what we have witnessed in June and November 2005; thousands could be maimed and hundreds of buildings destroyed. There could be ethnic cleansing as witnessed in Rwanda. Tigreans could face the fate of the Tutsis. The 2005 election proved that the people of Ethiopia have a huge grudge against the Tigreans who gave unequivocal support to the regime. It doesn’t seem that the Tigreans are repenting from their sins, they are still ardent supporters of the regime. There are pockets of Tigreans who don’t support the evil machination of zenawi’s regime, but I am sure when the time comes no one will have time to sift the chaff from the grain. That is why the Tigreans are time and again advised to alienate themselves from Zenawi’s regime before the night falls, which is fast approaching.
We have seen the beginning of the end in the 2005 election. Some Tigreans were truly Targeted. Most of them were gathering in meeting halls for fear of persecution. Zenawi could have used the story for its own evil ends, but the fact did occur that some Tigreans were hiding in bunkers. What worries me is the fate of the innocent Tigreans. I am sorry for them, and I wish God protect them. That is why I shiver when I think of Tunisia. I am smelling Rwanda is in the making in Ethiopia. We are not as luckily as the Tunisians, whose government didn’t choose to play with a race card.
I think of whether we have a political party that can shape the direction of the upcoming revolution. Wild revolutions are dangerous for a nation, they have to be tamed on time otherwise they will devour all dry leaves. When I think of political parties in Ethiopia, I don’t think that they have the capability and resource to lead a revolution. The only hope I have is for Ginbot 7. But the question still remains whether the G7 leadership will return back to Ethiopia to lead the revolution when the clouds begin to appear. That is the question I forward to the G7 leadership. They have to now that a revolution without a driver is doomed to fail. My hope is also on ESAT. I don’t expect ESAT to be radio mil coline of Rwanda. It has a huge responsibility to incite the people to stand up for a revolution, but at the same time inform the people not to turn the revolution into an ethnic revolution ( revolution with an ethnic element) . It should be a politico- economic revolution that is devoid of targeting Tigreans. ESAT has to inform the people that Zenawi couldn’t represent Tigreans. If that is the case, our revolution will be fruitful and bloodless. A good combination of G7 and ESAT may work. There rests my hope!
18 thoughts on “Will Ethiopia’s revolution be bloodless?”
It is very unfortunate, Meles is a typical Habesha – KEALMOTE SILTAN AYLEKIM – and this has a dire consequence on the golden tribe, hodams and all afkari woyanes.
People had enough by Woyane and can do everything by his power with blood or without any blood.The people of Ethiopia have done alrady before and it is not new for him
Thank you for your essay. However, I think your hope seems to be unrealistic. In Ethiopia, as long as EPRDF is there, there will never and ever be a public uprising that is able to bring fundamental change. we can not transpose the situation of Tunisia to Ethiopia because we have different contexts, they have same pain, they have same goal, they are one, they are strong. In Ethiopia, people have different ideas as equal as their numbers, millions goals, billions differences, and no common aim, to live or to die. If an uprising is to occur, God forbid, it will be total bloodshed not between the government and the people but between the people themselves. I am not pessimist but that is what the current reality succinctly shows. You said, G7 is one group you put your hope, it seems so funny, how can this group will be able to lead 80 million people while having no legitimacy even from 10,000 people in Ethiopia. Who knows this group after all as a guard for people freedoms? Regarding ESAT, how many people are able to watch it? Even those living outside are not watching it as it is not freely accessible on the internet. I think the Ethiopian people have learned a lot from 1997 than G7, they realized that they will never win an armed government being divided and bare handed. In 1997 I was their and I could witness many things, even students which would be expected to have some awareness were fighting each other ethnically, EPRDF did well job, so far it has been successful and will also be successful. No unity no power, no power even the one who has better power can oppress you.
The source of the tyrant’s power is his grip of the army through ethnocracy. Unless the Army is damaged, not necessarily physically, but MOST importantly morally, we have no way of changing the tyrant. Until the Army loses its moral and will, we might bring the tyrant to his knees but it will not change the system fundamentally. In Ethiopia, the mentality is, the ARMY = the GOVERNMENT.
It is v.Good view and i belive most of the point but i have few comment about 2+5 election and the way addis people react i personal withnessed no one said about any thing about tigrian people but those who highly start to to serve as aspy with z government got warning and goverment use this things as an instrument to use all tigray people to be with him.
I hope the writer did not write under alcohol or drug influence neither had a disintegrative disorder. But wrote it in his best personal behavior.
You said ‘Tigranees will face the fate of Tutsis’
Your analysis and observations was remarkably small and does not come up to the caliber of most readers. At the very least, it is painfully thin. What a wild and distractive wish you have? I never had such insecure feelings of my self.
You remained me the inhuman and devilish action of the ‘Derge officials’ who bombarded ‘Howzen’ with cluster bombs. In a similar vein… you are not afraid to commit all kinds of stupid absurdity against these people. You are trapped in a time loop where your lives replayed like a broken record.
I know You and your colleagues will leave no stone unturned to fulfill this devilish and distractive action and at same time you need to understand that Tigranees will be ready to fight for any one who brings ‘knife to gun fight’
as this a question of survival.
I wonder why you soften your words why ESAT is not serving as a radio mil Colin of Rwanda as an instrument for your purpose. I hope you denied it for political decoration because my intuition tells me otherwise.
Mr. Wodaje Ketema,
Lets say a revolution similar to Tunisia takes place in Ethiopia and people went out on the street and become a shooting practice to Meles Zenawis troops (Agazi) similar to the one we saw in 2005. What would you say to the mothers who will lose their children in hundreds? If my memory serve me well, Both the now G7 leader and UDJ leaders didn’t even console the families who lost their beloved ones. Instead they chose to run to the west where they get recieved with a hero welcome. the death of those is forgotten easily.
If you seek similar revolution in Ethiopia, can you be an example to us by going to Addis and do it yourself? why do you try something that is already tried and never worked. ofcourse it is very easy for folks like you who live in comfort and encite and push others to do such dirty work. I am amazed by your goofiness.
In case this happens in Ethiopia, we have to be worried about the number of Amharas, Oromos, Gurages, Somalis, Gambellas, Sidamas, etc that are going to be slaughterd by the tigreans in addition to what the tigreans are killing now. We have already witnessed how many amharic speakers have been slaughtered by these tigreans when these people replaced the facist Derg. We have also seen how many Ethiopians have been slaughtered by these tigreans after the 2005 election. We have to know that every tigrean that live under the Tekeze line is currently armed with a kalashinkov, a pistol with a lot of ammunitions and with grenades to protect their mother the TPLF. But once Ethiopians start the war, they shouldn’t stop before finishing it. It will be a life and death thing. It could be today or it could be tomorrow, but every Ethiopian has to be ready for final assault.
God protect Ethiopians from these Cannibals!
This article is neither interisting nor visionary. Ato Wodaje is just grinding the old mill again. Meles has not out-lived his purpose. I am afraid he will rule for another 10 more years at least. I see him as I see Hosnei Mubarak of Egypt. Why should Ginbot 7 be given the leadership while Meles is all to well efficient at what he is expected to do?
Some sacrfice must be made to free ourselves from tyrannical rule.
Any individual before he come in to this forums and make call for revolution need to examine his motive and accurately judge the consequences of his call.Zenawi not only has one of the best trained army, but an air force, and security under its total control. Faced with such enemy who won’t never hesitate to unleash force upon the innocent civilians, the call of defenseless citizens to rise up for revolution raises a serious question about the mental state of the writer. Neverthless,one thing is clear, Ethiopians who reside in their country know very well about the Diaspora politicians and they will not be persuaded to be sacrificial lamb.If some wants among the diaspora wants to manufacture chaos from distant,why dont you hit the road? Mr. Ketema Sir, if you really believe the Ethiopian people must stand up with knife and fork to challenge Zenawis armored thanks and air planes then go and try it for yourself. Why even call G7 for it?
1- I am against any call for revolution as things stand as they are now.
2-I am against any organization that claims to be Ethiopian and wants to remove Melese By being servant of I.A the number one dictator in the world- who just executed the executive committee of EPPF.
My stand on this has been clear Ethiopians need to form a national political alliance. Then, establishment multinational liberation army. I am in particular interested to see Ethiopia training military experts at all level overseas.I upheld the principle of selfrealiance and confidence and dependense of the on the ability and resourses of the Ethiopian people.
Apparently, some are not willing to pay the necessary sacrifice for freedom and want a short cut out, but there is no short cut out by compromising Ethiopian’s vital njational security.
Before any thing else we need extensive discussion about the future of Ethiopia.
This seems to be major stumbling block our inability to forge a national alliance.
In the absence of national vanguard party, some have opted their own way. I believe, more than any one else Dr. Nega has special knowledge about Shabia and TPLF.As former EPRP member he has witnessed how both organizations waged a war of attrition against his army EPRA.Besid, He had access to internal documents of these fronts and there is no room here to play ignoran.
Wodaje: there is a point you make I agree with. The deprature of EPDRF from power might not be bloodless. People being brainwashed to believe in ethnic politics for the last twenty years will make it difficult for Ethiopians to rise as one. The losing politicians will try to insert the “ethnic divide” they have created to salvage their power. But I strongly denounce your assertion that the whole Tigreans are responsible for the crime EPDRF has committed. Yes, EPDRF might enjoy more support from Tigreans than any other ethnicity in Ethiopia. Does that mean all Tigreans are enemy whose very survival depends on the existence of EPDRF? No, Wodaje, your theory is not only misguided, but also downright nonsense. I believe, Wodaje, you might wish democracy to flourish in Ethiopia. Believing in democracy means believing one to be free in one’s political beliefs. Even those Ethiopians who support EPDRF are free to do so. Wodaje, are you dreaming of an Ethiopia only your political beliefs could exist? Well, if that is the case you are worse than the EPDRF politcians you apparently detest. People who detest ethnic politics, Wodaje, should be free of inserting ethnic politics when they assume doing so would be to their advantage. It is an absurd contradiction. Your kind of politics play very well in the hands of Meles and company. If you remember the 2005 election Meles almost warned Tigreans their very survival depends on EPDRF winning the election. But that was not the case. Ethiopians wanted change. The last time I checked Tigreans are also Ethiopians, Wodaje. Perhaps because Tigreans make only 6 percent of Ethiopian population you might make number crunching to validate your point. But that is downright anti-democratic. In democracy those in the minority their rights are respected. Only in democracy the weakest in society could be protected. That is the Ethiopia we wish to create. A system which protects the weakest in society, the minority by number, and those who uphold different beliefs than the established majority believes. Then and only then we might say Ethiopia is on the right track in implementing democracy. If a single person is demonized, arrested, and killed because of his ethnicity, Ethiopia is not exercising democracy rather implementing dictatorship. I wish an Ethiopia whose citizen is not judged by their ethnicity they come from, but by the country they share– Ethiopia. Wodaje, you should too.
wedaje Ketema , it seems u are worrying about the people of Tigray so called Tigrians, in one hand u trying to intimidate these people. let me remind u one fact the people of Tigray not scare death at all!!! yet,these is the people who stood , fought and died for its freedom and ethiopian people, not just stayed overseas and scratching a pic of paper like a chicken . my advise for u is if u believe Tunisian revolution works in Ethiopia , don’t ask anyone go there and fight for u . u have to be there and fight for ur freedom. adios!!!!
i wish it is bloodless too. But woyane has been planting seeds of hatred among the populace by choosing certain ethnic groups mainly the tigreans as the beneficiary of the system. When there is discrimination, it creates resentment. when resentment is stocked for so many years like in the case of Ethiopia, its consequence is a disaster. when it explodes, it is like a category 5 hurricane and destroys everything on its path. we have witnessed what happened in Rwanda. there was a chance in 2005 when the people overwhelmingly chose the opposition in a peaceful manner. woyane should have respected the out come and handed over power to those who were rightly elected. it is too late now. God help Ethiopia and its people.
Mr. Ketema, your article is full of garbage because you are trying to instigate violence against Tigreans.You are saying Tigreans will have a fate like Tutsi but your analysis lacks academic values and your wish is wheel of fortune.I do believe most Ethiopians don’t believe like you.
“saykeka teboka” revolution is revolution nobody knows the out com there fore do not even read this kind article
Yes! The revolution is knocking Ethiopians door. This is going to happen sometime soon. It is going to happen either in a smaller magnitude or a huge magnitude. It is very wise article. As a responsible citizens, we have to find a way to lead the country from blood shead. The current military has a responsibility of standing for the people. Someone in the military has to step in and help ESAT and G7 too.
Noone is going to stop the revoultion!
YOU ETHIOPIANS HAVE 1 BIG PROPLEM. AND THAT PROPLEM IS BLAMING EVERY THING ON THE ETHNICITY OF THAT PERSONE. SEROSLY YOU LOOK LIKE NOTHING BUT BARBARIANS WITH WARLORDS. FIX YOUR RACISM PROPLEMS OR BLAMING EVERYTHING ON SOME PPLS ORIGION. IF YOU DON’T STOP YOU DON’T DESERV TO BECOME A DEVELOPED COUNTRY BECAUSE A DEVELOPED COUNTRY NEEDS TO FIX IT’S PROPLEMS BEFORE DEVELOPING. AND YOUR PROPLEM IS ETHIC HATRAD TWORDS EACH OTHER. FIX IT OR NEVER DEVELOP