Source: AP
UNITED NATIONS — After years of conflict and a tense border dispute, the Woyanne regime in Ethiopia has accepted a U.N. commission’s ruling to turn over a disputed town to Eritrea.
The Woyanne dictatorship gave its unconditional acceptance of the commission’s decision, announced five years ago, that it return the key town of Badme to Eritrea, in a letter last week to the U.N. Security Council.
“I believe it’s good news … that was one of the bottlenecks in the situation,” U.N. associate spokesman Yves Sorokobi said Thursday. “If they do agree, it should move the process forward a bit more quickly.”
The Horn of Africa neighbors initially promised to accept the boundary commission’s 2002 ruling awarding Badme to Eritrea, but Ethiopia has not handed it over.
Both countries claim Badme and fought a bloody 2 1/2-year war after Ethiopian soldiers opened fire on Eritrean soldiers in the border town in 1998.
A 2000 truce agreeing to cease hostilities has made the border more peaceful, but tensions have occasionally flared to the point international observers feared a new war could break out.
Sorokobi said there have been no relations between the two sides.
The commission renewed its call for a response from the two countries last month, giving a November deadline for the implementation of its decision on the new border.
Eritrea responded to the commission’s request in May, agreeing with the decision.
Since its publication last week, there has been virtually no reaction to the Ethiopian [Woyanne] acceptance.
Eritrea’s U.N. Mission said no one was available to comment.
“There needs to be an official reaction and to the best of my knowledge it hasn’t happened yet,” Sorokobi said.
The Security Council will be in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia on Friday and Saturday to meet with African Union and Ethiopian officials at the start of a five- country African mission. Sorokobi said the Ethiopia-Eritrea border issue will probably be discussed.
A 2005 U.N. resolution called for a 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) buffer zone between the two countries, but in the past year Eritrean forces have moved into the zone and have stymied efforts by U.N. peacekeepers to monitor the area. The Security Council has repeatedly called for Eritrea to lift its restrictions, including its ban on U.N. helicopter flights and night patrols.
Sorokobi said there is not much the U.N. can do to force the two parties to cooperate.
“The U.N. has not handed out any punishment to Eritrea even though it is aware for several months now,” he added.
The U.N. peacekeeping force in the tense buffer zone has been reduced in the past year by 2,500 troops to 1,700. Authorization for the force expires next month, but Sorokobi said that it will likely be extended.
If the new border decision is not implemented, Sorokobi warned that “positions will probably harden.”
“There has been an increase of hostile rhetoric from both parties and it’s something that has preoccupied the situation,” he said.
By PINR
From late May through mid-June, Somalia remained frozen in its state of political collapse described by PINR in its May 3 and May 24 reports on the country.
Somalia’s weak and internationally recognized Transitional Federal Government (T.F.G.) continues to be a severely impaired participant in the country’s multiple conflicts, facing a chronic insurgency in its official capital Mogadishu; unrest, lawlessness and failing control in the country’s regions; and inadequate funding from international donors, on which it depends for its financial survival. Ethiopia, on which the T.F.G. depends for military protection, has been over-strained financially and is anxious to withdraw its forces, yet their replacement by an 8,000 member African Union (A.U.) peacekeeping mission (AMISOM) has yet to materialize, except for a contingent of 1,500 Ugandan troops, which have withdrawn to guard duty at Mogadishu’s airport and seaport, and at government facilities, after one of its convoys was attacked on May 16.
Despite efforts by the T.F.G. to gain control of Mogadishu through a crackdown on armed opposition, closure of independent media outlets and arrests of leaders of the Hawiye clan, which is distrustful of the Darod-dominated T.F.G., the city remains insecure. Although donor states and international organizations have edged toward providing the T.F.G. with greater financial support, the transitional authority still lacks the resources to govern.
The missing link in the efforts by the T.F.G. and its uneasy and reluctant allies to stabilize Somalia is the elusive process of reconciliation — power-sharing between the T.F.G. and its opposition groups, including disaffected sub-clans, local leaders, nationalists and the political wing of the Islamic Courts Council (I.C.C.), which had controlled most of Somalia south of the semi-autonomous sub-state of Puntland until it was defeated militarily in December 2006 by the Ethiopian intervention.
Thus far, the T.F.G. and its adversaries have remained opposed and uncompromising on the issue of reconciliation, with the transitional executive counting on a clan-based National Reconciliation Conference (N.R.C.) which had been scheduled to begin on June 14, but was delayed on June 13 — for the third time — until July 15; and the opposition factions, which have begun to coalesce, refusing to participate in talks until Ethiopian forces withdraw from Somalia and demanding a conference based on political rather than clan representation.
International donors agree that a power-sharing deal is essential to achieving stability in Somalia, but their diplomatic backing of the T.F.G. has deprived them of leverage over the opposition groups, and they have not been able to convince the T.F.G. to undertake “inclusive” reconciliation. The lack of political will to compromise of domestic actors has been responsible for the tentative support of the T.F.G. by the donors — the United States, Western European states, the European Union and the United Nations, with Washington being the T.F.G.’s most enthusiastic backer and the others holding a more reserved position. The donors’ viewpoint was expressed succinctly by Chris Lovelace, the World Bank’s country manager for Somalia, at a meeting on reconstruction aid for the country on June 1 in Uganda: “The [N.R.C.] must ensure that representation for all stakeholders is respected; if it is not, there will not be any desired outcome for peace.”
As PINR has stated repeatedly, Somalia will continue to devolve and fragment into regional, local and clan-based power centers unless domestic actors are able to devise a unifying political formula. The prospects for econciliation remain dim.
The Security Struggle
Mogadishu, the T.F.G.’s major battleground in its struggle to secure Somalia, remains turbulent. During the last week of May and into early June, the insurgency spiked up with nearly daily multiple attacks on T.F.G. officials and forces, and Ethiopian troops and installations, including targeted assassinations of local officials and regional officials visiting Mogadishu, roadside bombings, suicide bombings, and grenade and small-arms assaults. The attacks culminated on June 3 with the suicide bombing of Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi’s residence, in which seven people were killed and for which the militant jihadist al-Shabaab movement took responsibility.
Mogadishu’s mayor, ex-warlord Mohamed Dheere, who had responded to the wave of violence by promising a crackdown and had said on May 31 that he would “hold the city in a hard fist,” moved to mount a counter-insurgency on June 5 with the aid of Ethiopian forces and heavy armor that included a proliferation of checkpoints, intensive house-to-house weapons searches, arrests of suspected militants and destruction of buildings that harbored suspects and their arms.
In addition to the military measures, the T.F.G. shut down the two major independent media outlets in Mogadishu — the Shabelle and HornAfrik radio stations — and arrested several prominent Hawiye leaders, including Haji Abdi Omar, the chair of the newly formed Hawiye Elders Congress. These actions sparked criticism from donor powers.
The T.F.G. justified the station closures by claiming that the outlets had incited violence, supported “terrorists,” “confused” the public and “violated freedom of expression.” On June 9, the T.F.G.’s deputy
information minister, Yusuf Gele Ugas, announced that the government would bring the stations’ administrators to court and would train journalists to “enhance their skills.”
The arrests of the Hawiye leaders followed repeated charges by Dheere that they had failed to keep promises to suppress the insurgents and, indeed, that they were behind the violence. He also criticized the commissioners of Mogadishu’s districts — four of whom have been assassinated — for laxity in imposing security.
The T.F.G.’s repressive measures prompted U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer to warn the T.F.G. that “the U.S. government feels those actions risk undermining national reconciliation.”
Although the crackdown suppressed insurgent attacks for several days, they resumed again on June 10 and have continued since then. By June 7, the Hawiye leaders had been released from custody and on June 10 Shabelle and HornAfrik were back on the air, according to Shabelle representative Muhamad Asim, without conditions.
Shabelle’s chairman, Abdi Maalik Yusuf, credited Washington with reversing the closures: “We do believe that the free media could not operate in Somalia without Washington’s involvement.” U.S. ambassador to Kenya, Michael Ranneberger, reported that he had contacted Gedi and the T.F.G.’s president, Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, remarking that “the media in Somalia are very essential to the national reconciliation conference.”
The T.F.G.’s abortive counter-insurgency measures resulted in some seizures of arms caches and the arrests of 16 suspected al-Shabaab fighters, but they have not broken the armed opposition and they have increased hostility in the Hawiye community. At present, Mogadishu appears to have returned to the condition of insecurity that prevailed before the crackdown.
As the T.F.G.’s struggle to secure Mogadishu met with at best mixed success, the other regions of Somalia proper continued to experience instability, conflict, devolution and fragmentation.
In the Lower Shabelle region, which lacks an effective governing authority, the major town of Merca remains in the control of clan militias, which extort money from and rob travelers at illegal checkpoints. On June 9, militias loyal to the region’s former warlord Yusuf Indha Ade, who was the I.C.C.’s defense chief, took control of the towns of Bulo-Marer and Qoryoley from the forces of the T.F.G.-appointed governor, Abdulkadir Sheikh Mohamed, who blamed the seizures on I.C.C. remnants and foreign fighters, including Arabs and Eritreans. The charges were denied by local militia commander, Ali Garney, who said that the new governor had yet to present his credentials.
Further fragmentation, recalling Somalia’s decentralized condition before the rise of the I.C.C., was reported on June 13, when the self-appointed commissioner of the Barawe district, Abdullahi Hassan Dhuhulow, declared that he would not recognize Sheikh Mohamed’s authority, claiming that he was elected by “local people” and would rule the district “until Somalia has a government.” Dhuhulow owes his position to Indha Ade, and his defiance of the T.F.G. evidences Indha Ade’s ability to construct an independent power center in Lower Shabelle.
In the Lower Jubba region, the key port city of Kismayo remained under control of the militias of the Marehan clan, which had expelled the forces of the T.F.G.-appointed Majerteen-dominated administration. At the end of May, militias guarding Kismayo’s port closed the facility down, demanding payment of back wages. Clan elders persuaded the guards to reopen the port after promising them money if they left.
On June 2, Col. Makhtal Farah Gagaab, commander of national security forces in Kismayo, was assassinated. On June 4, inter-clan fighting erupted between Marehan and Galje’el militias in the settlement of Berhano on the outskirts of Kismayo, with the Galje’el accusing the Marehan of attempting to drive them from the area. After a cease-fire prevailed for several days, fighting resumed on June 12, leaving six dead.
In the Hiraan region bordering Ethiopia, a crime wave continued with an uptick in robberies and extortion at illegal checkpoints. On May 30, in the major town of Beledweyne, an Ethiopian convoy was bombed. On June 7, the T.F.G.’s ambassador to the A.U., Abdikarin Lahanyo, who is a native of Hiraan, arrived in Beledweyne to appeal to clan elders to cooperate with the Ethiopians, promising that he would “take responsibility” for misconduct by the occupiers, who had been increasing their presence in the town.
On June 9, T.F.G. forces began a withdrawal from Beledweyne, after complaints of robberies and assaults by men wearing military fatigues. Local officials noted that T.F.G. forces still have not been issued new uniforms and that common criminals often adopt military dress, which is a problem throughout Somalia’s regions. The T.F.G.’s withdrawal leaves security in Beledweyne in the hands of local police and Ethiopian troops.
In the Bay region, where the T.F.G.’s parliament is based in the town of Baidoa, a crime wave was reported, accompanied by illegal roadblocks. In the Mudug region, inter-clan fighting erupted over pasturage and water wells near the town of Gelinsor on May 30, leaving three dead. In the Gedo region, Ethiopian officials summoned clan elders to warn them against harboring “al-Qaeda-linked groups.”
The preceding incomplete report of instances of instability in Somalia’s regions evidences the continued devolution of the country to local power centers and the persistence of local conflicts. PINR sees no reason to change its January forecast that Somalia’s political future is likely to be its pre-Courts past.
Beyond Somalia proper, Puntland experienced its first brush with the insurgency to the south when, on May 31, a party of raiders on two speedboats entered the fishing village of Bargar. Puntland authorities claimed that the raiders were “remnants” of the jihadist movement fleeing Somalia’s deep south and included foreign fighters as well as I.C.C. militants. Puntland security forces engaged the party and chased them into the surrounding mountains, prompting shelling by a U.S. warship and a deployment of a small detachment of U.S. special forces to search for suspected terrorists.
The purposes of the raid remain clouded, with some Puntland officials claiming that the party was attempting to escape to Yemen and others that it was bound for Eritrea. Some local clan leaders disputed the entire story, charging that Puntland forces had attacked the local population.
More importantly, tensions mounted in Ethiopia’s ethnic-Somali Ogaden region (Somali Regional State) when, on May 29, a grenade attack on a ceremony marking the overthrow of Ethiopia’s former dictator Mengitsu Haile Mariam wounded S.R.S. president, Abdullahi Hassan. Return fire caused a stampede, with the entire incident leaving at least 16 people dead, including two police officers. Another attack on the same day reportedly killed ten people and wounded 16.
Ethiopian authorities blamed the Ogaden National Liberation Front (O.N.L.F.), which has mounted a decades-long low-level insurgency in the S.R.S. aimed at forcing a vote on separation of the Ogaden region from Ethiopia. The O.N.L.F. denied that it was behind the attack, claiming that it was engineered by the Ethiopian military, which supposedly wants to replace Hassan with S.R.S. security bureau chief Abdi Ileeye, who is more favorable to an ongoing crackdown against opposition in the region. Afrol News reported on June 10 that popular support for the O.N.L.F. is rising and that it currently poses “the strongest military challenge” to the Ethiopian army.
Whether or not the O.N.L.F. mounted the attack on Hassan, the spike in violence in the S.R.S. probably reflects a spillover of instability from Somalia proper and places Addis Ababa in straitened circumstances. Ethiopia’s prime minister, Meles Zenawi, has been clear that the financial strains of the occupation cannot be sustained, and intensifying instability in the S.R.S. adds a greater incentive for him to pull out of Somalia proper. Zenawi repeatedly appeals for adequate international support for AMISOM, which has not been forthcoming, yet Western powers, particularly the United States, have reportedly pressured Addis Ababa, which depends on foreign aid, to continue the occupation, pending the full deployment of AMISOM.
With African states that had pledged troops to AMISOM — Burundi, Ghana and Nigeria — reluctant to participate as long as Somalia remains unstable and progress on reconciliation is absent, Addis Ababa is
trapped in a deteriorating situation that could eventually destabilize its regime. Ethiopia would be satisfied to leave Somalia — one of its regional rivals — in a fragmented state, but has been blocked from pursuing that interest and is beginning to pay dearly for its decision — backed by Washington — to
overthrow the I.C.C.
Political Deadlock
With the outcome of the T.F.G.’s struggle to secure Somalia at best problematic, the vital missing link in achieving stability in the country is political reconciliation — a euphemism for power-sharing.
All the external actors with interests in Somalia, except for Ethiopia, agree on desiring a reconciliation conference that includes all the political forces in the country, with the exception of the militant jihadists; and they have pressured the T.F.G. to initiate such a process. The sticking point has been that the presently constituted T.F.G. — as would be expected — wants to preserve its power and privilege, and has resisted the external actors’ demands.
Soon after the I.C.C. was routed, the T.F.G. finessed the donor powers, regional states and international organizations by planning the N.R.C., which is based on clan representation and excludes direct
representation of political forces. The external actors were dissatisfied with the N.R.C., but were unwilling to force another formula on the T.F.G. because they had recognized it as Somalia’s lawful government and were ambivalent about including conciliatory elements of the I.C.C. directly in negotiations. That ambivalence is based on their interest in isolating the militant jihadists, which works for inclusion of I.C.C. moderates directly in the process; and their persistent fears of a role for the I.C.C. in power-sharing, which works for its exclusion. The result of the ambivalence has been repeated pleas for the N.R.C. to be “inclusive” and tentative and half-hearted support for the project, which depends for its success on their financing.
The external actors understand that the N.R.C. is deeply flawed because the political oppositions to the T.F.G. have thus far refused to participate in it and have begun to form a coalition. With no leverage over
the oppositions — due to their backing of the T.F.G. — the external actors have put themselves in the position of observing political deadlock take hold. The oppositions are comprised of the political forces in Somalia that have been marginalized by the T.F.G. in its alliance with Addis Ababa. They include disparate groups and individuals with followings that share the aim of resisting T.F.G. control and the Ethiopian occupation — the conciliatory wing of the I.C.C. led by Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed; the dissident faction of the T.F.G.’s parliament led by its ex-speaker, Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan; large sectors of the Somali diaspora sharing a generally democratic nationalist perspective; disaffected warlords and politicians, most notably T.F.G. deputy prime minister, Hussein Aideed; local warlords and leaders seeking to carve out clan-based fiefdoms; and large sectors of the Hawiye clan family, which dominates Mogadishu and fears control by the rival Darod clan.
From the end of May through mid-June, some of the oppositions, which had been relatively separate, began to coalesce into an organized movement and political bloc that for the first time since the Ethiopian
intervention threatens the T.F.G.’s monopoly on national political organization.
On May 24, the nascent movement defined its goals in a joint communique issued by Ahmed and Adan from their base in Eritrea. They urged Somalis to boycott the N.R.C., scoring it as “an agent of the colonizers” and an effort to “legalize” the Ethiopian occupation, and they asserted that no reconciliation talks should take place before the occupation had ended.
Having defined their rejectionist position, the opposition groups moved to organize a political bloc, meeting in Qatar and bringing diaspora groups and dissident politicians into the discussions. On June 14, the resistance movement issued a communique stating that it would not recognize the N.R.C., which it deemed “a new chapter of fragmenting the Somali society with the hands of its arch-enemy and cementing the occupation.” The new bloc pledged to organize a resistance conference within 45 days that local analysts believe is meant to be a competitor to the N.R.C.
The Hawiye clan family, which has too many cross-cutting interests to league with the political opposition bloc and is essential to even the most minimal reconciliation process, joined the rejectionists on June 12. The chair of the newly formed Hawiye Elders Congress, Haji Abdi Omar, stated that the Hawiye were united in opposing participation in the N.R.C., on the grounds that they had not been invited to participate, that the conference had no agenda, that its selection process was not transparent, and that N.R.C. organizers had not responded to their demands for a withdrawal of Ethiopian troops and militias loyal to Yusuf from Mogadishu.
The rejection of the N.R.C. by the Hawiye placed its organizing committee in an untenable position, because were the conference to proceed, it would have no pretense of being inclusive. On June 13, the N.R.C. committee chair, Ali Mahdi Mohamed, announced that the conference had been delayed until July 15, citing requests from clans for more time to choose delegates and unfinished construction work on the meeting’s venue, both of which are true. Mahdi did not mention funding problems, although on June 10, after he had met with donors in Nairobi, he said that they had provided only a fraction of the funds necessary to hold the N.R.C. Mahdi rejected the claim that the security situation in Mogadishu was a stumbling block to holding the N.R.C. As late as June 7, Mahdi had assured that the N.R.C. would not be postponed.
As political deadlock and polarization set in, the external actors were powerless to stop it. In their only major diplomatic intervention, they met in London on June 6 under the auspices of the Washington-inspired Contact Group (C.G.), which includes the United States, Western European states, Tanzania, and the A.U., E.U., Arab League and U.N. In a communique issued after their meeting, the C.G. “welcomed assurances” by the T.F.G. that the N.R.C. would be “fully inclusive” and that no one who renounced violence would be denied participation if they were selected by their clan. The C.G. members promised to fund the N.R.C., which the T.F.G. estimates will cost US$42 million and the donor powers estimate will cost $8.5 million. Washington announced at the meeting that it had contributed $1.2 million for the N.R.C.
The disconnect between the deliberations of the external powers and the facts on the ground is due to their ambivalence, the fact that Somalia is not one of their top priorities and their decision to legitimize the N.R.C., which they have to claim could be viable. With political oppositions coalescing into a bloc, the Hawiye finding unity in rejectionism and the insurgency persisting, the disconnect threatens to become a chasm.
Conclusion
Developments in Somalia through mid-June confirm PINR’s basic forecast that the country will remain in a devolutionary political cycle, which has only become more pronounced. At present, an insurgency with a militant jihadist component persists in Mogadishu, the T.F.G. is losing even a semblance of control over key regions, oppositions are organizing into blocs, Addis Ababa is over-strained, troop contributions to AMISOM are not forthcoming, and donor powers are paralyzed and reluctant to support the T.F.G. wholeheartedly. The T.F.G. executive remains determined to pursue its clan-based formula for reconciliation, which appears to have lost the scant viability it might have had.
Simultaneous processes of polarization and fragmentation are likely to have critically damaged the T.F.G.’s ability to prevail in the struggle for security and to carry through a clan-based reconciliation program, leading to political collapse.
The only possibility for breaking the devolutionary cycle is presented by the coalescing of opposition forces into a bloc. If the T.F.G. can be pressured by external powers to enter power-sharing negotiations with a relatively coherent political opposition, there is a small probability of a national accord.
For the moment, the T.F.G. and the nascent opposition are polarized on the issue of the Ethiopian occupation. The opposition is united by its resistance to the occupation and the T.F.G. depends on it for survival. At some point the occupation will end — with or without sufficient peacekeepers to replace it — and Somalia will either sink back into chronic statelessness or serious power-sharing discussions will begin. The former eventuality — devolution — remains by far the most likely outcome.
Report Drafted By: Dr. Michael A. WeinsteinThe Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to. All comments should be directed to [email protected].
By Guled Mohamed
Reuters, Thu Jun 14, 6:56 AM ET
Somali insurgents assassinated a local official on Thursday and attacked Ethiopian [Woyanne] troops overnight just hours after a second attempt to start a peace conference was postponed, residents said.
Islamist-led insurgents have been fighting the Somali government and its Ethiopian [Woyanne] allies since the New Year
when they were ousted from Mogadishu in a two-week offensive.
Large-scale battles have given way to guerrilla-style hits, and the overnight strikes on the Ethiopian [Woyanne] troop positions were the heaviest attacks since last month.
Witnesses said two civilians died when the attackers simultaneously opened fire and launched rocket-propelled grenades around midnight at three positions held by the Ethiopian troops, in Somalia to support the interim government.
“It was a brief but heavy exchange,” resident Ibrahim Maalim said. “Gunmen simultaneously attacked Ethiopian [Woyanne] troops staying at the old pasta factory, the stadium and the former defense headquarters.”
He said he saw one man killed near the pasta factory, and residents said a woman was also killed close to the stadium. Heavily-armed Ethiopian troops sealed off the whole area.
A Somali jihadist group calling itself the Young Mujahideen Movement claimed responsibility for the attacks on the Ethiopians, saying it suffered no casualties but “it is expected there were some killed and wounded among the enemy ranks.”
The Web posting could not be immediately verified but was on a site used by al Qaeda and other Islamists.
A Reuters correspondent heard heavy explosions and automatic fire that lit up the night sky during the
assaults.
“BLOOD EVERYWHERE”
“The gunmen hurled two hand grenades at Ethiopian [Woyanne] troops staying at the pasta factory,” said Ruqia Ali, who lives nearby. “The troops returned fire. It was a nightmare. A heavy exchange ensued. I had to hide under the bed.”
In a separate attack on Thursday morning, two men with pistols shot dead a district commissioner from the
Shibis area of north Mogadishu, locals said. “He was walking alone when they shot him several times. I saw his body lying on the ground, with blood everywhere,” resident Abdullahi Ahmed said.
The flare-up of violence — which also included a grenade attack on Ethiopian trucks that killed one civilian on Wednesday — followed the one-month postponement of a peace conference that had been due to start on Thursday.
The government-organized and internationally backed National Reconciliation Conference, which was first postponed from April, had been intended to bring together in Mogadishu 1,355 delegates from different clans and factions across Somalia.
The meeting was delayed because many delegates have not yet been chosen and the venue, a rundown and
bullet-scarred former police compound, is still not ready.
Foreign diplomats had pinned their hopes on the conference as the best way to try to secure lasting peace in Somalia, which has been in anarchy since the ousting of a dictator in 1991.
The Somali government had no official comment on the latest violence in Mogadishu. But a security source,
who asked not to be named, said authorities had arrested several people for the attacks on the Ethiopian troops.
(Additional reporting by Firouz Sedarat in Dubai)
By Kedir Yimam
The recent beheading of three Ethiopian nationals by the Saudi government was a sad moment for all Ethiopians and for all others who believe in the goodness of all human beings. But for some of us, the event was more sad because of the misplaced emotional outburst directed against the religion of Islam rather that the perpetrators of the act. In order to have a rational discussion on the matter, we need to put the facts in order before we jump on the bandwagon of bashing Arabs and the religion of Islam. Although the view most Ethiopians have about Saudi Arabia largely depends on their religious background and personal experiences, it will help a great deal to understand what’s going on if we laid out some basic realities about the country and its rulers.
1. Saudi Arabia is a country where the Sharia Law as prescribed by the Quran is put into practice which includes beheading and severing limbs on those who committed the particular crime. And if we read what the Quran says about capital punishment, we will find that there is no ambiguity in it interpretation. A verse from the Quran on the subject states “….If anyone kills a person – unless it be for murder or for spreading mischief in the land – it would be as if he killed all people. And if anyone saves a life, it would be as if he saved the life of all people” (Qur’an 5:32). And like most other faiths, Islam holds life sacred and again quoting from the Qu’ran, it is stated “…take not life, which God has made sacred, except by way of justice and law (Qur’an 6:151). And as such, according to Islamic law (in the first verse quoted above), the following two crimes can be punishable by death; intentional murder and spreading mischief in the land. It is very clear that the Qur’an legislates the death penalty for murder, but forgiveness and compassion are strongly encouraged. The murder victim’s family is given a choice to either insist on the death penalty, or to pardon the perpetrator and accept monetary compensation for their loss (2:178).
2. The court system in Saudi Arabia is as backward as one can imagine with nepotism and favoritism being the basic tenet. The law that uphold the belief that one is innocent until proven guilty, which is a basic tenet of Islam, is only paid liservice and is rarely practiced.
Having laid out the above stated realities, it would help us to examine the justness of the two cases that led to the loss of three Ethiopian lives. The Islamic penal code strictly adheres that “ … one must be properly convicted in an Islamic court of law before the punishment can be meted out. The severity of the punishment requires that very strict evidence standards must be met before a conviction is found. The court also has flexibility to order less than the ultimate punishment (for example, imposing fines or prison sentences), on a case-by-case basis.” People who follow different faiths can argue about the merits of the law as stated in the Quran, but that is a subject for a different time. For our purpose, it is sufficient to point out the basis of the law of the land. The basis of the law, in this case, the Qu’ran also orders to have ample evidence, and if convicted to show leniency in carrying out the sentence, which bring us to our second point. Does the Saudi court system strictly adhere to these principles and guidelines as stipulated in the Qu’ran? No, not by a long shot.
If there is a country that is corrupt and rotten to the core, it is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It is a land that is basically ruled by a system of family relationships. Most everyone in important government and ruling positions are related to each other. One would hardly be pressed to find an iota of democratic practices in the land. Since it is impossible to find any semblance of democracy in any area of the royal ruling system, why would anyone expect to find justice and fairness in the court system? Every aspect of life depends on the whims of individuals who are related to the royal family, which number in the thousands, who sit in judgment of the whole population, both locals and foreigners. The point I am trying to make is that we should be very clear in looking where the problem lies in our particular cases. The root cause of the problem is the system of government and its everyday practices that filters through all its agencies that adversely affect all the population. The case of the three Ethiopian lives that we have lost should be seen in this light. Some of our fellow Ethiopians find it easier to vent their anger on the religion of Islam, and by extension on all Arabs, the majority of whom are followers of Isalm; but let us not forget that it is not only Ethiopians who were made to suffer under this totalitarian system, but people of other nations including Muslims and Arabs too.
There are many countries that have the death sentence as a final solution in criminal cases in the world including the United States. Discussing the pros and cons of capital punishment and weather if it is has any place in this day and age is a topic for another time. But taking the realities of the land into consideration, is it possible to say that all those who have been convicted in the Saudi legal system and put under the sword got a fair trial and representation? From what we know about the facts about Saudi Arabia, it does not take much to conclude that the court system, among many others, is neither fair nor just, but quite the opposite. The governments of many countries whose nationals got the short end of the Saudi court system have given up any hopes of getting fair trail and are in a state desperation. Since the Ethiopian government does not much care about its national, its silence in these particular cases is not surprising, though unconscionable.
If given the opportunity, the majority of the population in our country would rather leave its native land in search of a better life. Ethiopia has become a land of extremes when it comes to the issue of the economy. A handful of people who rub shoulders with the government make millions oblivious to the living conditions of millions of others. And the vast majority of our population suffers in abject misery coupled with a number of communicable diseases to top it all. Since the majority of the population has given any hope of seeing any tangible improvement in its living conditions, they have opted to take any kind of actions that promises to alleviate its conditions. Unfortunately, the only option that made itself available to the vast majority of the population is leaving ones beloved country and relatives and face what life has in store for them in a foreign land. Because of that, we have Ethiopians scattered all over the globe in search of a better life albeit sometimes with tragic consequences. And the government’s reactions in these and other similar episodes borders on total neglect for the welfare of its citizens. It seems that the only objective of the government is to facilitate the migration of thousands of Ethiopians into foreign lands so that it can be the beneficiary of the foreign currency that the poor souls pour into the country as well as the reduction of people from the unemployment line. It is indeed a win-win solution for the government without showing any responsibility and protection for the welfare of the people whom it is supposed to serve.
In a period of nine years from 1992-2201, a little more than 6,000 female domestic workers left for the Gulf states, according to the statistics provided by the government. But these figures take into consideration only those who have registered through legal employment agencies which accounts for only twenty percent of the migrants. It is estimated that more than twenty thousand Ethiopian domestic workers are serving in Lebanon alone. A conservative rough estimate of Ethiopians who have left their country is somewhere between 150,000 and 200,000. Ethiopian Airlines has found a new source of business transporting plane loads of these poor souls to different destinations in the Gulf states and neighboring countries two or three times a week. For further reading in the lives of Ethiopian domestic workers, please follow the link to read a brief chronicle in an article written by Bathseba H. Belai for The Reporter newspasper.
In order to address the issue properly and find a lasting solution, it is incumbent upon all of us to analyze the root cause of the problem. A great deal of the culpability rests on the shoulders of the government which is busy sending thousands of innocent souls into countries they are barely familiar with. A friend of mine told me a sad incident that he encountered at Bole Airport in his recent trip to Addis, which I find to support the rgument that I am advancing of the carelessness on the part of the government in not giving proper orientation to these Ethiopian domestic workers. While filling out exit forms at Bole on his way to the US, he said a woman who was on her way to a certain Gulf state approached him to help her fill out her forms. He said he started asking her all the pertinent information that was required and wrote it down accordingly. And then when he asked her the next question in regards to her destination, the woman was at a loss for words; she said she does not remember what she had been told by the employment agency. Although he was also in a hurry not to miss his flight because of all kinds of delays, he took the trouble of going through her documents to find out where it was. And I told him the obvious fact that the woman had made a decision that any place is better than her own homeland because of the sad reality of our country.
People who chose to support the government will cite all kinds of meaningless statistics, some made up and others distorted to fit ones objectives, in order to propagate what the government has done to improve the economy and as a result the lives of its citizens. But almost all Ethiopians know that this is empty nothing. The sad reality of our country and people is that it is meaningless to even record the unemployment rate because more than half the working population is out of work. And because of poor economic policies, which was forcefully pushed on our throats by IMF and the World Bank in total collaboration with the present regime, the devaluation of the currency has thrown a vast majority of the population in deep poverty. Ours is a county of two extremes where we have a handful of millionaires on the one hand and a sea of poverty for the rest, with no middle class to speak of. If it was not for the transfer of funds from the Ethiopian diaspora, it is unthinkable what life would look like in Ethiopia. Although it has been said time and again, we can not escape from the fact that we need a change from top down. A change in government that serves the wishes of its subjects and respects all norms of civilized behavior and democracy as its base is the only answer to solve the myriads of problems popping up all over the place. A government that is not accountable to anyone and engages in a senseless war that divides communities and countries, not to speak of the senselessly wasted human lives and resources, has got to go and every effort should be targeted towards that endeavor.
By Dr. Moges Mekuria
Projecting ones nightmares onto others will only lead to insanity and ultimate doom
The Treason charge and conviction once again proves the politics of projection that has been consistently applied on the people of Ethiopia by the TPLF. However, such defenses will not help the TPLF defend itself, except forcing it to try to flee from its horrendous acts hastening its and ultimate doom.
Elementary psychology tells us that failure to adjust to challenging situations lead to certain behaviors marking defective personality. These Defense mechanisms are created when one rejects reality or the emerging change. Defenses such as denial, repression and projection can be detrimental if used as long-term response mechanisms.
Unraveling the underlying behavior of the TPLF regime points to a recurring pattern of psychological defense mechanisms or projection. The TPLF has been using projection- blaming its fault on the opposition- as one of its key policies.
The TPLF policy of projection is a manifestation of its leaders’ psychotic behavior- Delusional Projection of psychotic proportions- manifested by frank delusions and paranoia about external reality, usually of a hostile nature. TPLF leaders still see the Ethiopian people and Ethiopia as a threat to their own paranoid ambitions and psychosis- maintain indefinite control of power and government structures to achieve their untimate goal of dividing and ruling Ethiopia.
TPLF leaders’ operation in the realm of the immoral is a sign of deep psychological derangement. Who could have thought by inciting violence and jailing innocent kinijit leaders, TPLF would reverse the democratic process in Ethiopia at a time when opposition leaders seemed to be on the strongest bargaining position? The answer lies in the realm of the immoral, viciousness and the rules of the jungle.
I think, if one wants to understand the TPLF junta, one has to look for immoral, not moral and ethical cues. Practical examples of such immorality include their accusation of opposition leaders and their supporters of charges of genocide and treason, narrow nationalism or ethnism or ethno-nationalism, inciting armed rebellion, breaking the constitutional order and lying.
The TPLF leadership and cadres are responsible for all the mess in Ethiopia. The experience and the reality of the last 16 years in Ethiopia proved this beyond doubt. They are the ones who contemplated genocidal intent against those who did not vote for them. They are the ones who committed treason against Ethiopia and Ethiopians. They are the ones who strongly advocated for narrow nationalism in Ethiopia. They are the ones who instigated armed rebellion by rigging people’s votes and breaking the constitutional order to attempt to change the course of democracy and freedom in Ethiopia.
At the heart of projection is the behaviour of compulsive lying. TPLF has been, still is, lying to the Ethiopian people. They accuse opposition of lying when in fact they are the ones who lied and are lying. This is another proof of the politics of political projection by the TPLF mafia.
The motivations behind the politics of projection are clear. The TPLF leaders always attempt to hide from the truth because truth threatens them psychologically. They deny the truth and project their lies on the opposition hoping to remove their psychological guilt and insanity.
More importantly, such TPLF psychological defenses are pre-emptive measures aimed at blocking any likely course of action that TPLF leaders perceive the opposition might take, but which they can not stand to hear or see happening. Cases in point include alleged treason and inciting armed rebellion.
Defense mechanisms may help to silence subconscious fears and pathogenic anxiety for a time, but cannot deal with long-term psychological problems or lead to long-term solutions. One has to face the reality to be able to cope with psychological problems in the long-term. Such is true of the TPLF leadership that is trying to avoid reality all the time by blaming the opposition for its vicious faults and paranoid tendencies and ambitions.
The result of such behaviour is obviously insanity and ultimate doom. The junta cannot cheat the nation anymore. TPLF could not outgrow its guerrilla behaviour even after 16 years as government. It could not mature, as it has failed to adjust to the expectations of both the Ethiopian people, the international community, and the 21-st century reality. TPLF will continue to flee from its own shadow and its own paranoid fear and guilt, which will only lead to more viciousness and insanity. Such feelings of psychological inadequacy in TPLF leaders’ minds cannot lead to long-term adjustment and harmony with the Ethiopian people and their legitmate representatives. It will only hasten their viciousness and ultimate doom.
