OBAMA, JAPAN (Reuters) – Dancing, singing and playing the guitar, residents in the sleepy Japanese fishing port of Obama are readying to party for Barack Obama before Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election.
Around 50 men, women and children wearing “I Love Obama” T-shirts practiced hula dancing over the weekend for the Honolulu-born Democratic candidate, hoping he will win the vote and one day visit the town as U.S. President.
“I’m 85 percent confident that Obama will win,” said hotel owner Seiji Fujiwara, who heads a group backing Obama in hopes that the town, with a population of 32,000, can share his fame and attract more visitors. “I think he’ll be alright.”
Shops in the town have been selling everything from T-shirts, fish burgers and steamed cakes to chopsticks bearing Obama’s name.
“We’ve been dancing for Mr. Obama for more than six months,” said Yuko Shirayama of the local “Obama Girls” hula dancing group, created to cheer on Obama. “So I hope he wins.”
Her group traveled to Hawaii to celebrate Obama’s victory over Hillary Clinton in the Democratic nomination for U.S. president earlier this year and the dancers hope to go to Obama’s inauguration ceremony if he wins.
“If Mr. Obama becomes president and gets a chance to visit Japan, we would like him to visit our city,” Mayor Kouji Matsuzaki told Reuters.
Obama has drawn popularity not only in the town sharing his name, but also across the rest of Japan.
In a survey of 3,500 readers by the Asahi Shimbun daily, 73 percent said they would choose Obama if they could vote, while only 7 percent said they would pick Republican rival John McCain.
The town’s residents will hold their breath as they watch the election results together on television, but they plan to dance and party regardless of the outcome.
(Reporting by Toshi Maeda; Editing by Alex Richardson)
TIPP, the most accurate pollster in 2004, shows serious movement in McCain’s favor, with the overall margin at 2.1 points. To me it looks like the poll may be weighted just a tiny bit too heavily in favor of self-described conservatives, but still, I think directionally they are on to something and this is one poll definitely worth watching. I think the best thing to do is not look at the Real Clear Politics poll average, even though RCP is usually invaluable, but instead to understand that RCP includes nutty outliers like Newsweek. Instead, if you take an average of just four polls with good records, I think you might be onto something. Those four are, to the best of my discernment, TIPP (Obama +2), Rasmussen (+5), GWU/Battleground (+4), and, on the advice of the Examiner’s brilliant Chris Stirewalt, WSJ/NBC — but WSJ hasn’t done a poll since Oct. 20. Just for now, then, I substitute in Fox News (which may be wishful thinking), at +3, and the average margin for Obama right now is 3.5 points, with all the movement in McCain’s direction. I then add a point and a half to Obama because of his superb organization and because of the rampant vote fraud in his favor — and I firmly believe this will be the most fraudulent election in history — which means I think Obama is up by 5 points, effectively.
Two more days of momentum for McCain and, one can hope, another good day on Wall Street on Monday, could get it within 2 points. And if it is within 2 points nationwide (which means half a point if you don’t buy my organization-plus-vote-fraud theory), then the distribution of the votes might, just might, allow McCain to pick the Electoral College lock even while losing the popular vote. The key, as I wrote about ten days ago, will be Pennsylvania. I still think that as Pennsylvania goes, so will go the nation — and I still think McCain has a decent chance at winning Pennsylvania.
In short, McCain needs everything to break right. But he doesn’t need everything to break miraculously right, but only for everything within the mid-ranges of reason to break his way. The good news is, therefore, that a victory for him is within reason. The bad news is that he needs every variable within reason, and with so many variables at play, the combination of all of those together does, indeed, push his chances to the outer edges of — but not beyond — yes, reason.
For Chicago, home town to Barack Obama, the wait is almost over. Not a single person I have spoken to in this seething, edgy metropolis on the shores of Lake Michigan believes their man will not be crowned 44th American president tomorrow.
In the last days of this astonishing campaign, Obama is using the language of religious fervour, saying he has the “wind of the righteous” behind him.
And a truly Biblical crowd of ONE MILLION is expected to pay homage to the expected new President tomorrow night.
They are used to messiahs in Chicago. Pope John Paul celebrated mass here in 1979, an event still fresh in the memory of the huge Catholic community who define this city in the eyes of much of America.
Where the Pope walked, there will walk Barack Obama.
‘ On every draughty pavement here you see vividly why so many Americans are placing their trust in a man who – to be frank – has achieved nothing in life beyond making himself famous. ’
Grant Park, a vast lakeside expanse locals regard as Chicago’s front yard, is putting up tents and preparing the fatted calf for the return of the Prodigal President.
City bosses are nervous. Chicago has form for losing its head on big nights. And this will be the biggest night in its history.
All police leave is cancelled. Fire crews have been told to sleep in their uniforms. FBI agents overfly the gleaming steel and concrete spires whose reflections shimmer in the ruffled waters of the harbour.
Not even Al Capone got this level of attention as he strongarmed the local speakeasies in the Prohibition Thirties.
But nobody doubts the need for so much security. Senator Obama is a black icon in a nation that still harbours its share of Neanderthal white racists. He is, and always will be, a target.
For that reason alone, he deserves the utmost respect for having the courage to want his family to be the first black residents of the White House.
Such courage inspires Chicago, where an Obama presidency is seen as the key to reversing America’s moral and economic decline.
On every draughty pavement here you see vividly why so many Americans are placing their trust in a man who – to be frank – has achieved nothing in life beyond making himself famous.
I have reported on this epic campaign from many cities of America, but only in Chicago have I seen so many down-and-outs – mostly black – cadging dollars on street corners.
This is not a poor city. Far from it. But working-class blacks from the South Side of Chicago have long felt left behind as whites have done well.
From that cauldron of resentment rose a political messiah who prospered not by harping on about black injustice but by appealing to all Americans who believe that a fairer society will be a better and safer society.
That is why Barack Obama stands before America today just 24 hours from becoming – almost certainly – its first black President.
And here, in the Windy City, everyone believes Obama’s time has come – especially in a town hit as badly as any by the slump that is wiping out families across the Land Of The Free.
You see the signs of hardship everywhere here. The lift of my hotel is crammed with sweaty bikers dropping off ten dollar Domino’s Pizzas to guests who can’t afford the room service pizza at 20 bucks a throw.
You see it on the streets, where tourists walk five blocks to save a three dollar cab fare.
You see it in the faces of restaurant girls who try desperately hard to please you and then scan the credit card bill to see how much of a tip you have left for them to buy baby food with on the way home.
All these good people – and Americans ARE good and decent people – will be descending on to Chicago’s lakeshore tomorrow night to salute the man they believe can lay to rest the stumbling incompetence of the Bush era and restore pride, prosperity and confidence to the world’s most powerful nation.
Win or lose tomorrow, Barack Obama has transformed not just American politics but the way the world is run.
He is the first truly cosmopolitan leader, a product not of one place at one time but all places at all times.
In his search for his destiny, Obama has come up against a fine opponent.
Senator John McCain, seeking to keep the White House in Republican hands, is a great patriot. A war hero, a man of principle and courage. An honourable, decent and combative survivor of the great “Saving Private Ryan” generation that defeated Hitler.
But here in Chicago, much as they respect and admire Senator McCain, they have their eye on tomorrow.
As my friendly tramp told me as I bunged him the price of a cup of coffee, “Man, this is Chicago and Obama is our hero. Hell, boy, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet!”
Excitement and Anxiety Swirl as Chicago Prepares to Host Obama Event
By MONICA DAVEY
CHICAGO — Chicago is bracing for a gigantic crowd this week in Grant Park, the city’s iconic front yard, where Senator Barack Obama has chosen to spend election night.
As many as 70,000 people are expected to attend an event for local supporters. All available tickets were swept up days ago, and thousands of people have applied to be on a waiting list. Thousands more — maybe as many as a million people, Mayor Richard M. Daley has proudly suggested — are expected to pile into the downtown parkland and sidewalks and streets surrounding Mr. Obama’s official celebration.
“This could be a moment of history right here, and it’s high time for it,” said Patricia Cadagin, who stood last week peering through a new fence around the south end of Grant Park, one of blocks and blocks of fences erected as part of the elaborate security efforts. Ms. Cadagin, 82, who said she had voted early for Mr. Obama, will probably not be here on Tuesday night. “It’s going to be a big crowd and at night, and I’m a small woman,” she said. “Will I be here in spirit? You bet you.”
Chicago, it seems, is of two minds about this party. Many supporters in Mr. Obama’s hometown speak with pride of the potential of seeing the first African-American claim victory in a presidential campaign here on the edge of Lake Michigan, in view of their beloved skyline. Still, in hushed tones, some say they are worried about his safety in the public park and about how a huge crowd in this city, which has seen violence after events like basketball championships, might respond, win, lose or draw.
Even city leaders have sent mixed messages. On Thursday, Mr. Daley, a fierce Obama supporter, seemed to suggest the more the merrier. “You think I’m not going to invite people down?” he told reporters, according to The Chicago Tribune. “This is a celebration.”
A day later, city leaders cautioned Chicagoans to behave properly, warned them that people might be turned away if Grant Park became too crowded and stood at a city-run news conference beside ministers who suggested that those without tickets use “common sense” and stay in their own neighborhoods.
“We can’t have foolishness,” said the police superintendent, Jody P. Weis. “We can’t have mischief.”
Grant Park, known as Lake Park until it was renamed for Ulysses S. Grant in 1901, lies not far from the route of Abraham Lincoln’s funeral procession, was the home of at least four political conventions in the late 1800s, was visited by Queen Elizabeth II in 1959, was the site of a clash between the police and antiwar protesters during the Democratic convention in 1968, and was the place where Pope John Paul II celebrated Mass with thousands in 1979. The park is home to the annual Taste of Chicago, as well as games of 16-inch softball played by generations of Chicagoans.
“You couldn’t have a place more infused with Chicago and more infused with everything that Chicago has experienced,” said the city’s cultural historian, Tim Samuelson, who noted that parts of the park were probably built on debris left behind from the Great Chicago Fire of 1871.
As Obama supporters searched for tickets on Craigslist and in other places (though it is unclear whether the free tickets are transferable and campaign officials say identification will be checked), federal and local law enforcement officials revealed little about their security plans but made it clear that they were extensive.
The city has kept on a special security chief it had hired in case the White Sox or the Cubs made it to the World Series. No sworn Chicago police officers will have Tuesday night off. Firefighters were told to take their gear home so they could respond quickly if called. Some of the city’s largest thoroughfares and some boat harbors will close. And parking will be banned through large swaths of downtown.
Last week, officials could be seen touring rooftops in downtown high-rises as helicopters flew over Hutchinson Field, the section of Grant Park where the Obama event will be held. Some downtown offices have been asked to send employees home early on Tuesday.
Fence companies, meanwhile, appeared to be certain winners, as fences and barricades rose all around.
Local and federal law enforcement officials said repeatedly that they were confident they could keep the event safe, even outside, even with uncertain crowd numbers. “We’re concerned about every venue,” said Ed Donovan, a spokesman for the Secret Service. “We do this for a living.”
The Obama campaign declined to discuss the cost of the event, but city officials have suggested that the campaign might spend $2 million on extra city services for the evening. In discouraging those without tickets from going downtown, city officials and ministers described somewhat stark conditions at the official party: no chairs, no alcohol (though hot chocolate is expected), no bags allowed, and uncertain weather given the month and the town.
“It’s taken us a long time to get to where we are,” said the Rev. Albert Tyson, one of several ministers who called for calm. “We are on the precipice of the most historic event that this United States has ever seen. We certainly want to counsel folks all over the city not to do anything to mar this event.”
Susan O’Halloran, 58, who has volunteered for the Obama campaign, is among those who will have a ticket on Tuesday night. She was also in Grant Park 40 years ago, as a high school senior who had joined others to oppose the Vietnam War during the Democratic convention. She said she had been eating, relaxing and talking during the protest when police officers grew tense, pulling billy clubs from their belts. One chased her, apparently because she had a Super 8 movie camera, she said, and she fled; other demonstrators were later beaten, an event Ms. O’Halloran considers a scar on the city.
“I will be back on that field,” Ms. O’Halloran said. “And I don’t care how cold it is or how long I have to wait. It feels too historic.”
She said the possibility that Mr. Obama would be elected was “all part of the same thing” she was fighting for in the 1960s. “My reason for being there as a young woman was because there was something I wanted to see this country become. That’ll be the same reason I’m down there Tuesday night,” she said, her voice breaking. “The full circle is pretty luscious.”
Obama may be looking like a shoe in but Democrats have had too many disappointments in recent years to relax just yet
A few hours out from Election Day, both candidates have made their closing arguments and all the cards appear to be on the table, so I don’t anticipate much more drama in the presidential race. The good news for Democrats is there is not a single poll that has McCain winning the election. Among Conservative opinion-leaders, the mood is subtly shifting from the desperate search for evidence that McCain’s steadily closing the gap, to self-consolation that he’s kept the race relatively close despite all his disadvantages.
I don’t think any remaining uncertain factors will be enough to undo Obama’s lead. That being said there is a feeling of anxiety among many Democratic activists right now that something could go terribly wrong on Tuesday. There’s not much evidence to support such fears, and that even if McCain winds up doing exceptionally well among undecided voters, he’s probably too far behind to close the deal.
I’d argue that aside from there well-earned Democratic pessimism based on past close elections, there might be two factors underpinning this anxiety. The first is obvious enough: race. With the McCain campaign heavily relying on submerged and not-so-submerged racial appeals, old fears about the willingness of white Americans to elect an African-American president have bubbled up.
The second factor is subtler: personal emotional investment in Obama. Democrats have long considered Obama a phenomenal, once-in-a-generation leader who can be “transformational;” others have reached this conclusion more recently. Still others simply think it’s imperative, that the Republican lock on the White House is terminated this year, for reasons ranging from Supreme Court appointments to foreign policy.
I wanted to understand why there was anxiety amongst the Democrat activists and one personal experience summed it up best for me – a teacher who goes by the name Ed (who is campaigning in Pennsylvania) said to me that he has only had a strong emotional, as opposed to professional or ideological, investment in the outcome of two presidential elections: 1992 and 2004. And those two Election Nights represented the ultimate highs and lows.
“Back in1992, I remember the joy I was feeling sitting in Atlanta’s premier political watering hole, Manuel’s Tavern, surrounded by members of a class I was teaching, as Georgia was called for Bill Clinton just two minutes after the polls closed. In 2004, the bad news came to me from a friend of mine who was working for John Kerry in Florida, and told me: “We’re done in Florida, and we’re done nationally,” finally dashing the illusions born of faulty exit polls.”
Many other Democrats have had similar experiences, more negative than positive, usually and many more were wrenched by the endless and ultimately maddening drama of 2000 than with the near miss of 2004. But virtually all of them seem transfixed by this year’s election, and what it might signify. That can produce anxiety, which will only be resolved when all the votes are in, and the Democrats have prevailed.
By Michelle Cottle, Christopher Orr, Jason Zengerle The New Republic
Barack Obama’s position has become somewhat stronger since our update on Sunday. We now have him with a 5.8 point lead in the national popular vote, and winning the election 96.3 percent of the time. Earlier today, those figures were 5.4 and 93.7, respectively.
I continue to find a hair’s worth of tightening on balance in the state-by-state polls — even as Obama’s position in the national trackers seems to be roughly as strong as it has ever been. This, ironically, is the exact reverse of the position we saw earlier in the week, when the national polls seemed to be tightening even as the state polls weren’t.
However, Obama’s win percentage has ticked upward again for a couple of reasons. Firstly, he’s gotten some relatively good numbers out of Pennsylvania since our last update, with PPP and Zogby giving him leads of 8 and 14 points, respectively, and Rasmussen showing his lead expanding to 6 points after having been at 4 before. (The Zogby poll is probably an outlier, but may serve to balance out outliers like Strategic Vision on the other side).
Secondly, McCain’s clock has simply run out. While there is arguable evidence of a small tightening, there is no evidence of a dramatic tightening of the sort he would need to make Tuesday night interesting.
Related to this is the fact that there are now very, very few true undecideds left in this race. After accounting for a third-party vote, which looks as though it will come in at an aggregate of 2 percent or so (after doing some work on this tonight, I concluded that I had been slightly underestimating the third-party vote before), I am showing only about 2.7 percent of the electorate left to allocate between the two major-party candidates. Even if John McCain were to win 70 perecnt of the remaining undecideds (which I don’t think is likely), that would only be worth a net of about a point for him. Frankly, McCain’s winning scenarios mainly involve the polls having been wrong in the first place — because of a Bradley Effect or something else. It is unlikely that the polls will “tighten” substantially further — especially when Obama already has over 50 percent of the vote.
It’s very late, obviously, so we won’t get into too much more detail, but a couple of quick notes.
–> Don’t worry too much about that SurveyUSA result in Minnesota, which shows Obama just 3 points ahead. SurveyUSA’s polling in Minnesota has been very, very weird all year; they’ve never shown Obama with larger than a 6 point lead in their likely voter model, and had McCain ahead in the state as recently as October 1st. SurveyUSA does not have a Republican lean in general, but in Minnesota, it has consistently had a huge one.
–> A couple of the national polls have now started to predict how undecided voters will behave and allocate them between the two major-party candidates. I use the versions of these surveys before any such allocations are made, as from my point of view it isn’t the pollster’s job to get into the prediction business (our model has its own ideas about how to handle undecideds).
EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS – Some 130 million American voters will elect on Tuesday (4 November) the new man to take over the White House. Be it Republican John McCain or Democrat Barack Obama, the winner will significantly shape EU-US relations at a time of worsening financial crisis.
The last 18 months have seen one of the most acrimonious and certainly the most expensive presidential campaign in US history, with Barack Obama currently ahead in all opinion polls.
According to the latest CNN national ‘Poll of Polls’ (2 November), the 47-year old lawyer and the first African American nominated by a major political party for president has a seven-point lead over Mr McCain (53% to 46%).
But up to eight percent of people remain undecided – enough to swing the result – while turnout is expected to reach its highest figure since 1960, with some 20 million Americans haveing already cast their votes.
In the final hours on the campaign trail, both candidates are battling for “must win” states – Ohio with 20 electoral votes for senator McCain and Pennsylvania with 21 votes under the system for senator Obama.
At the same time, they both were faced with undesirable surprises.
Sarah Palin – the US vice-president hopeful in the McCain camp – found herself caught up in a phone conversation with a Canadian comedian posing as French President Nicolas Sarkozy. During the six-minute chat, they discussed hunting, Carla Bruni’s looks and Ms Palin’s presidential prospects.
Mr Obama, for his part, had to respond to a finding that his aunt from Kenya, stayed illegally in the US, despite immigration authorities turning down her asylum request four years ago.
Europeans for Obama
US elections are followed closely on the other side of the Atlantic for their enormous global impact – especially at a time when Europe needs America to help tailor a global reform of the financial sector and to boost the fight against climate change.
If Europeans had a vote, Barack Obama would beat John McCain by large margin. He enjoys greater popularity due to the fact that he represents a more evident contrast to the politics of the outgoing president, Republican George W. Bush.
Mr Bush’s eight-year-long term has been marked by a unilateral decision to invade Iraq – something that his reputation has never recovered from, even though he later reached out to consult Europe on issues such as Iran.
According to Tomas Valasek from the London-based Centre for European Reform, none of the presidential candidates will ignore the EU’s opinion on major foreign policy issues, but each of them will bring different arguments to the table.
Barack Obama has shown more willingness to judge countries on an individual basis, not strictly within a war on terror framework, Mr Valasek told the EUobserver, citing views on Iran and Russia as significantly different to those of Mr McCain.
The Republican presidential candidate refuses to engage in talks with Tehran over its nuclear programme and he also adopted a more critical stance on Russia’s military action against Georgia in August.
McCain’s views on Russia are more in line with a Polish and Czech foreign policy approach, while Obama would gain sympathy in Germany, France and Italy, Mr Valasek said.
Financial crisis
But the transatlantic agenda will be dominated by the financial crisis and poor economic prospects for both continents.
On 15 November, the United States will host a “Group of 20 summit,” which should kick of talks on how financial markets should be regulated. Apart from the US, the group involves Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the UK and the EU representative.
According to Mr Valasek, Mr Obama seems to agree with Europe when it comes to a possibility of state interventions into economy, but the risk lies in his protectionist rhetoric. This could worsen the current situation, he said.
Daniel Gros from the Centre for European policy studies in Brussels described Mr McCain’s approach on the financial crisis as “more impulsive,” while noting that Democrat Obama had a very good team of advisors.
“I am certain that Obama will very carefully listen to the very good technical advice he gets,” the analyst said.
Barack Obama’s position has become somewhat stronger since our update on Sunday. We now have him with a 5.8 point lead in the national popular vote, and winning the election 96.3 percent of the time. Earlier today, those figures were 5.4 and 93.7, respectively.