The final deluge of national tracking polls and state polls has arrived, and they reveal a most unusual picture. Barack Obama’s lead in the national tracking polls has widened by almost 2% in the final days, now standing at 7.4% in the realclearpoltics.com average. Put quite simply, it is inconceivable that a candidate could win the national popular vote by over 7% (conceivably a 10 million vote margin if the turnout hits 140 million), and lose the Electoral College.
And yet, on a state by state leveI in the key battleground states, the race is much closer and appears to have tightened in the last few days. This is not to say that Obama is in any serious danger of losing. But the national margin may be less indicative of the state of the race than in prior years, due to a wide imbalance in what I and other call “wasted votes” or excess votes in landslide states. In 2004, George Bush won big margins in many Southern states and in Indiana, the upper Midwest and Rocky Mountain states. This year, John McCain could win almost all of the states in these regions, but even if he does, his margin of victory is likely to be smaller in every state he wins than the margin Bush obtained.
On the other hand, Obama is headed for enormous margins in many states: California, Illinois, New York, Maryland, New Jersey and Massachusetts among them, and far bigger margins than John Kerry won in some other states such as Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Washington and Oregon. In just three states: Illinois, California and New York, Obama will likely pile up a margin of between six and seven million votes. Think about it this way: if the final popular vote margin turns out to be 5%, and turnout is 140 million, then these three states could provide roughly 80% to 100% of Obama’s total popular vote margin. If Obama wins by 7%, they would provide 60 to 70% of the total margin.
In the battleground states, almost all red states, the race is much closer. John McCain’s problem is that he needs to win virtually every closely contested state to win, and that is unlikely. In my most recent article, I referred to tiers, and I still find that a helpful way to look at the race. Two red states — Iowa and New Mexico, with 12 Electoral College votes between them, seem safely in Obama’s corner. The most recent polling in Iowa (7) has given Obama a double digit lead in every survey. In New Mexico (5), it is a bit closer, but Obama’s lead ranges from 7 to 10 points in the non-partisan surveys.
Assuming Obama holds all the Kerry-won blue states, these two red states takeaways bring Obama to 264 electoral College votes. The next most likely red state to fall is Nevada (5). And Nevada would be enough, for with a 269-269 tie, the House of Representatives would likely give a victory to Obama. So if McCain cannot turn a blue state, he must win Nevada. The closest McCain has come in any recent Nevada poll is down 4, and he is further behind in several of them.
The two blue states still being contested both show solid Obama leads. Pennsylvania has clearly tightened in the last week, and many surveys now show Obama up by 4 to 6 points (he led by double digits only a week ago). In New Hampshire, other than Rasmussen which has Obama up 7, most polls have Obama up more than that.
McCain also trails in Virginia (13) and Colorado (9). Both states, I think, will be closer than some of the Obama partisans believe is the case. Rasmussen has had Obama up 4 in both states, in each of the last two surveys. There are other polls showing Obama up by 4 to 6 in Virginia, and 5 in Colorado. I think Colorado is a bit safer for Obama than Virginia.
I feel fairly confident in predicting that Obama will win Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. If Obama wins no other red states, he will be at 291. What this mean is that if McCain wins all the other closely contested states — Florida (27), Ohio (20), North Carolina (15), Indiana (11), Missouri (11), Georgia (15), Montana (3), North Dakota (3), he will fall short. Simply put, for McCain to win, he needs to hold all those state just listed and also win either Nevada or New Hampshire, and either Pennsylvania or both Colorado and Virginia. To say this is a tall task is to greatly understate the odds.
I think Obama has an edge in Ohio due to organization, and help from the highly partisan Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, who has done everything possible to allow fraudulent votes to come in, and keep Republican votes out. I am less certain about Florida, Missouri and North Carolina. I think McCain will win narrowly in Indiana and Georgia. If forced to make a pick, I will give North Carolina and Missouri to McCain and Florida to Obama.
Net, the Electoral College comes out 338-200 for Obama. I think the real range for Obama’s victory is from 291-247 in the best case for McCain to 364-174 in the worst case. If Virginia is too close to call tomorrow night, then McCain may make it a long night. If Indiana is too close to call, or falls to Obama, it will be a landslide in the Electoral College, similar to Clinton’s wins in 1992 and 1996 (370 and 379 Electoral College votes, respectively). All things being equal (whatever that means), Bill Clinton won by near 6% in 1992, and by over 8% in 1996, and if Obama’s margin falls in that range, a big Electoral College win should not be a big surprise. If the Electoral College race turns out to be close, despite a significant popular vote margin for Obama, it is because of the distortion of the wasted votes described earlier. If McCain loses by 3-5%, and escapes with a narrow Electoral College win, I do not think I would want to be a policeman in Grant Park Tuesday night.
As for the Senate, I think the Democrats will pick up 7 seats to get to 58, if you count Joe Lieberman on the Democrats’ side. The 7 pickups are in Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire, Alaska, North Carolina, and Oregon. If Republicans have a good night, and win some close ones (they lost them all in 2006 except for Tennessee), they could hold onto Oregon (Gordon Smith), and possibly North Carolina (Dole). Stevens in Alaska and Sununu in New Hampshire are behind by more than the margin of error, and have a slim shot at holding on.
To get to 60, the Democrats would have to win Minnesota and Georgia. I think they will fall short in both. In two close races, both Norm Coleman in Minnesota and Gordon Smith in Oregon, despite moderate voting records, have been targeted with tens of millions in negative ads portraying them as Bush clones, the same strategy the Obama campaign has used to falsely tar John McCain with $300 million in ads. In the case of Franken, his entire campaign has been a savage smear job against Coleman, and Franken’s election to the Senate, were it to occur, would make Minnesota even more of a national laughing stock that when it elected Jesse Ventura governor.
Richard Baehr is chief political correspondent of American Thinker.
ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA (APA) – Some 7,000 Ethiopian pilgrims will travel to Saudi Arabia for the 2008 Haji, Ethiopian Islamic Affairs Council said on Monday.
The council said that it has begun proving services for the largest number ever of pilgrims by introducing better working procedures to avoid congestion. Last year, around 5,000 pilgrims traveled to Saudi Arabia.
The council has established committees in Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia.
The council said the selection of the pilgrims would be carried out through all Islamic Affairs Offices. Pilgrims would get passport services from the Ethiopian Immigration and Civic Affairs offices in Mekelle, Bahirdar, Dessie, and Diredawa as well as in Addis Ababa.
Currently, the council is giving its services to 700 pilgrims per day.
The council has also opened 11 offices in Saudi Arabia to provide services to the pilgrims.
The deadline for the registration for the pilgrimage is November 15, 2008. The first batch of the pilgrims will leave Ethiopia on the 18 November.
About 40 percent of Ethiopia’s estimated population of 80 million is Muslim. Ethiopia is also home for Al-Negashi, the first mosque in Africa.
PHILADELPHIA – His name isn’t on the ballot today, but then again, he doesn’t need any votes. Jay-Z, also known as the president of hip-hop, was in North Philadelphia yesterday campaigning for presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama during the “Promote the Vote Block Party.”
Though the hip-hop mogul didn’t perform, he attracted a crowd of about 2,000 on the 2200 block of North Broad Street between Dauphin Street and Susquehanna Ave. Jay-Z, along with R&B artist Mary J. Blige and record producer P. Diddy, encouraged those in attendance to be informed about their rights as voters and make their vote count on Election Day.
“We have a responsibility to ourselves, our children, our country, and our new leader, but we have to go out and vote to make the difference,” Mary J. Blige said. “Things will not get better if we don’t do something different. We have been doing the same exact thing forever, but expecting a different result.”
Obama’s candidacy for president excited many supporters at the block party because of its historical significance.
“Some of us have been waiting for 400 years,” Mayor Michael Nutter said about Obama possibly being elected as the next president.
North Philadelphia resident Tiaisha Dandy is excited Obama has made it far in the race for the Oval Office.
“It’s the first time a black man has made it this far, so I’m excited,” said Dandy, who is a case manager for To Our Children’s Future With Health, Inc., a community-based nonprofit agency. “I think he’s going to help open a lot of doors, and even he it doesn’t make it, I don’t want people to feel like we won’t ever have a chance because he paved the way.”
He reminded voters of the importance of the presidential election with a freestyle verse.
“Rosa Parks sat, so Martin Luther King could walk, Martin Luther King walked, so Obama could run, Obama’s sprinting, so we all could fly.
Marcus Durham attended the block party after being inspired by previous events held by the Obama campaign in Philadelphia.
Durham said celebrities endorsing Obama positively promotes the Democratic candidate’s candidacy.
“As long as when [celebrities] dealing with the political aspect by endorsing Barack that they conduct themselves accordingly, I don’t see a problem with it,” Durham said.
Temple alumna Preasha Brittingham supports Obama’s policy for healthcare reform.
“My mother is a little sickly,” she said. “And I was always taught to embrace your culture and heritage and support someone that you know who is going to make a change for this country.”
At the end of the day we are so powerful. We are kings, we are queens, so this means we have the power to build or destroy, make things better or worse, it’s our choice. What will we choose?
Sarah Caspersen, a former Florida resident, said “at this point I think you either going to vote or your not.”
Caspersen supports Obama because of his appeal to young voters.
“McCain comes from a different time than I am, and so does Obama, but he’s closer to me than that,” Caspersen said. “I think McCain is further in the past than I am, and Obama thinks about education, healthcare, and I like his ideas better.”
Jay-Z encouraged attendees to vote for change.
“John McCain desperately needs Philadelphia, but you can tell him you cannot have Pennsylvania,” JAY-Z said.
WASHINGTON (AP) – Election watchers won’t have to wait for polls to close in the West to know how things are going. The first clues will come early, when voting ends in Georgia, Indiana and Virginia. If Democrat Barack Obama wins any of the three, he could be on his way to a big victory, maybe even a landslide.
If Republican John McCain sweeps them, he could be headed for a comeback. And if any of these three are too close to call quickly, that could indicate a long night ahead – and, perhaps, a squeaker of a result.
President Bush comfortably won the trio four years ago. But Obama has used his financial muscle and his draw as the youthful first black Democratic nominee to put them, and other historically reliable Republican states, into play.
Thus, the Democrat has several routes he can take to reach the 270 Electoral College votes needed for victory. McCain’s strategy has no room for error; he must win nearly all the states that went to Bush in 2004, and possibly even one or two that voted for Democrat John Kerry that year.
Here’s a timetable for armchair election watchers, all given in Eastern Standard Time:
– 7 p.m.: The last polls close in Georgia, Indiana and Virginia, new battlegrounds this year offering a combined 39 votes, as well as in Kentucky and South Carolina, GOP country and 16 votes McCain should easily win, and Vermont, three, a sure thing for Obama.
– 7:30 p.m.: Ohio and North Carolina, both are critical for McCain.
Ohio is a perennial swing state that no Republican has ever lost on his way to the presidency. Bush captured the state twice, and a loss would be difficult, if not impossible, for McCain to weather. He has few options to make up the 20 electoral votes elsewhere, while Obama probably could sustain a defeat here and look for wins in other GOP states where polls show him running stronger.
North Carolina, with 15 votes, is another GOP state that Obama targeted for a pickup from the start of the general election and one where he is working to get blacks and young adults to turn out for him in droves. He also made a late play for West Virginia’s five votes. Both are less likely than others to flip; McCain losing either would be disastrous.
– 8 p.m.: Final voting ends in some 15 states and Washington, D.C.
For Obama, the biggest prizes among them are Florida and its 27 votes and 11-vote Missouri, a bellwether for decades. Both went for Bush, and while Obama can afford to lose both, McCain can’t.
Should the Republican stumble in those states or others, he hopes to make up any deficit in Pennsylvania, which offers 21 votes and hasn’t voted for a Republican since 1988. A loss here could be the death knell for McCain’s chances; it’s the only Kerry-won state where he and the Republican National Committee are fiercely competing.
Among other Kerry states, McCain hopes New Hampshire and its independent streak will come through for him again; the state, which has four electoral votes, made him in his 2000 presidential primary and saved him eight years later, setting him on course to win the GOP nomination. McCain also has been gunning for a single electoral vote in Maine, one of two states that award them by congressional districts.
In this election-night hour, the Republican will almost certainly rack up 33 quick votes with wins in Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Tennessee, while Obama banks 47 from Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and the nation’s capital and 24 more from his home state of Illinois and that of running mate Joe Biden, Delaware.
– 8:30 p.m.: Arkansas should be called for McCain shortly after its polls close. It has six votes.
– 9 p.m.: Another big wave of states closing. The ones to watch are hotly contested Bush states Colorado and New Mexico, where Obama hopes Democratic-leaning Hispanics will lift him to victory. McCain could withstand losing the 14 votes these two offer – as long as he wins just about everywhere else he’s competing.
It’s also worth keeping an eye on the typically reliable Republican territory of North Dakota and South Dakota. Obama has competed in the former, and there may be overlap effect in the latter. They each offer there votes. Obama is also pushing for one vote in a Nebraska congressional district.
Arizona, McCain’s home state, may be another key indicator of which way the election will play out. If McCain loses that state, it’s all but certain his presidential dreams are over. Some surveys show the race there having tightened.
The Republican can essentially guarantee victories worth 52 votes in Kansas, Louisiana, Texas and Wyoming, while Obama is virtually certain to collect 72 votes from Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin.
– 10 p.m.: Voting ends in GOP-held, Iowa, Montana and Nevada, a combined 15 votes. Losing these would be a setback for McCain, while winning them would be a boon for Obama. Utah’s five votes are a certainty for McCain.
– 11 p.m.: Four states – mega-prize California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington – are expected to quickly give Obama a combined 77 votes, while Idaho is expected to award its four votes to McCain.
– 1 a.m.: Capping off the night is Alaska, where GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin is governor. The Republican ticket is a shoo-in for those three votes.
And then it’s over. Or not.
As the past two elections showed, there’s no certainty. If it’s a contest at all, the victor may not be declared until Wednesday’s wee hours. Or later.
WASHINGTON – It’s a nightmare scenario for Democrats — their nominee Barack Obama winning the popular vote while Republican John McCain ekes out an Electoral College victory. Sure, McCain trails in every recent national poll. Sure, surveys show that Obama leads in the race to reach the requisite 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Sure, chances of Republicans retaining the White House are remote.
But some last-minute state polls show the GOP nominee closing the gap in key states — Republican turf of Virginia, Florida and Ohio among them, and Democratic-leaning Pennsylvania, too.
If the tightening polls are correct and undecided voters in those states break McCain’s way — both big ifs — that could make for a repeat of the 2000 heartbreaker for Democrats that gave Republicans the White House.
In 2000, Democrat Al Gore narrowly won the popular vote by 537,179 votes. But George W. Bush won the state-by-state electoral balloting that determines the presidency, 271 to 266. The outcome wasn’t clear until a 36-day recount awarded Florida, then worth 25 electoral votes, to Bush by just a 537-vote margin.
Before the 2000 election, political insiders had speculated just the opposite, that perhaps Bush would win the popular vote but lose the presidency to Gore.
One day before the 2008 election, Obama sat atop every national poll.
Enthusiastic by all measures, the Illinois senator’s Democratic base was expected to run up the score in liberal bastions of party strongholds such as New York and California.
But the race appeared to be naturally tightening in top battlegrounds that each candidate likely will need to help them reach the magic number in the Electoral College, electoral-rich Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia among them.
To win, McCain must hold on to most states that went to Bush in 2004, or pick up one or more that went to Democrat John Kerry four years ago to make up for any losses. McCain’s biggest target for a pickup is Pennsylvania, which offers 21 votes and where several public polls show Obama’s lead shrinking from double digits to single digits.
McCain faces a steep hurdle. Obama leads or is tied in a dozen or so Bush-won states, and has the advantage in most Kerry-won states.
The Republican’s campaign argues that as national surveys tighten, McCain’s standing in key states also rises and that, combined with get-out-the-vote efforts, will lift McCain to victory in Bush states and, perhaps, others.
“What we’re in for is a slam-bang finish. … He’s been counted out before and won these kinds of states, and we’re in the process of winning them right now,” Rick Davis, McCain’s campaign manager, said Sunday.
Obama’s team is awash in confidence.
“We think we have a decisive edge right now” in states Bush won four years ago, said David Plouffe, Obama’s campaign manager.
There’s still another possibility, perhaps more improbable than the first — that McCain wins the popular vote while Obama clinches the White House.
True, Democrats have been fired up all year.
True, Republicans haven’t been.
True, Obama and McCain have been faring about even among independent voters.
But there are signs that the GOP’s conservative base has rallied in the final stretch and these voters usually turn out in droves, even if lukewarm on the candidate.
Then there’s the question of a tie in the Electoral College. In that case, members of the next House would select the winner.
If Obama carries every state that Democrat John Kerry won in 2004, plus Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada, then he and McCain each would have 269 electoral votes. A tie also would result if McCain takes New Hampshire from the Democrats’ column but loses Iowa, New Mexico and another state that Bush won, Colorado.
In an election year that’s defied conventional wisdom time and again, anything can happen.
DIXVILLE NOTCH, New Hampshire (AP) – Barack Obama came up a big winner in the presidential race in Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location, NH, where tradition of having the first Election Day ballots tallied lives on.
Democrat Obama defeated Republican John McCain by a count of 15 to 6 in Dixville Notch, where a loud whoop accompanied the announcement in Tuesday’s first minutes. The town of Hart’s Location reported 17 votes for Obama, 10 for McCain and two for write-in Ron Paul. Independent Ralph Nader was on both towns’ ballots but got no votes.
“I’m not going to say I wasn’t surprised,” said Obama supporter Tanner Nelson Tillotson, whose name was drawn from a bowl to make him Dixville Notch’s first voter.
With 115 residents between them, Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location get every eligible voter to the polls beginning at midnight on Election Day. Between them, the towns have been enjoying their first-vote status since 1948.
Being first means something to residents of the Granite State, home of the nation’s earliest presidential primary and the central focus—however briefly—of the vote-watching nation’s attention every four years.
Town Clerk Rick Erwin said Dixville Notch is proud of its tradition, but added, “The most important thing is that we exemplify a 100 percent vote.”
Dixville Notch resident Peter Johnson said the early bird electoral exercise “is fun.” A former naval aviator, Johnson said he was voting for McCain, but added, “I think both candidates are excellent people.”
Voting was carried out in a room in a local hotel festooned with political memorabilia from campaigns long past. Each voter gets an individual booth so there are no lines at the magic hour. The votes were quickly counted, announced and recorded on a posterboard that proclaims, “First in the Nation, Dixville Notch.”
The tradition drew spectators, including Tim McKenna, who drove with his wife 16 miles from Cambridge, N.H., to witness the event.
“Living in New Hampshire, you hear so much about it in the news,” said McKenna. “I think it’s a very historic election this year.”
Ed Butler, a Democratic state representative who runs the Notchland Inn in Hart’s Location, said, “Being this small and being able to be first just makes it that much more special.”
Although scores of states have voted early, the two villages are the first to officially announce the results on Election Day.
New Hampshire law requires polls to open at 11 a.m., but that doesn’t stop towns from opening earlier. It also allows towns to close their polls once all registered and eligible voters have cast ballots.
Hart’s Location started opening its polls early in 1948, the year Harry S. Truman beat Thomas Dewey, to accommodate railroad workers who had to get to work early. Hart’s Location got out of the early voting business in 1964 after some residents grew weary of all the publicity, but brought it back in 1996.
Dixville Notch, nestled in a mountain pass 1,800 feet up and about halfway between the White Mountain National Forest and the Canadian border, followed suit in 1960, when John F. Kennedy beat Richard M. Nixon. Nixon, the Republican, swept all nine votes cast in Dixville that year, and before Tuesday, the town had gone for a Democrat only once since then. That was in 1968, when the tally was Democrat Hubert Humphrey eight, Nixon four.
