RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA – Eritrean Minister of Information {www:Ali Abdu} accused some parties in the Ethiopian government of aiding and abetting pirates off the coast of Somalia in the Red Sea.
“They are extending logistic support to the pirates besides harboring them at the Ethiopian {www:Woyanne} camps located on the Somali-Ethiopian boarder regions. Ethiopian Woyanne troops gave them protection even inside Somali territories before their pull out,” he said.
Speaking to Gulf News during his recent visit to Saudi Arabia, Ali Abdu accused that some decision makers at the Ethiopian Woyanne Woyanne government in Ethiopia are the real beneficiaries of piracy, which brought them millions of dollars.
“After carrying out each and every act of piracy, pirates used to flee into the Ethiopian Woyanne camps on the Somali border,” he said while reiterating that it is impossible to end this criminal activity without returning sovereignty to the government of Somalia and driving out all the regional and international players, especially the Ethiopian Woyanne elements that are interfering in the internal affairs of the lawless country.
According to Ali Abdu, the issue of piracy on the Red Sea is directly linked to the anarchy and political instability in Somalia. “If this is not the position, why are these acts of piracy restricted to the Somali coast alone? Why aren’t they taking place on the coasts of Eritrea or Sudan or Yemen? he asked.
Denying reports about Iranian security or military presences on the Eritrean coast, the minister challenged those who raise such claims to produce substantial evidence for it.
“These were false notions and were tantamount to the claims that have been raised ever since 15 years about the security and military presence of Israel on the Red Sea off the cost of Eritrea,” he said while stressing that Eritrea is an independent sovereign country maintaining diplomatic relations with various countries in a way protecting the interests of the people of the country.
“We have never made relations with any country either in the East or the West in a way putting at risk the interests of our people. Likewise, we are not in need of the support of the military forces of any country,” he clarified.
Replying to a question about Eritrea’s continued opposition to the new government of Somalia under President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed even though several countries came forward in recognizing it, Ali Abdu said that this was nothing to do with Sharif Sheikh Ahmed or Abdullah Yousuf or anybody else.
“Rather we are only concerned about the security, sovereignty and stability of Somalia. It is unacceptable for Eritrea to recognize any government in Somalia that was imposed by one foreign country or the other,” he asserted.
According to Ali Abdu, the government of Sheikh Sharif Ahmed is a group of individuals pushed to the Somali leadership. “Recognition of the new Somali government by some countries is not a significant thing as these countries’ role in Somalia was that of mediation.
That doesn’t mean that the government is really representing the people of Somalia,” he said while drawing attention to the fact that the new government, though recognized by a large number of countries, is still facing stiff popular resistance in the country.
Ali Abdu noted that Eritrean government last month underlined the need for pulling out of the African Peace Keeping Forces (AMISOM), comprising of 3200 troops from Uganda and Burundi, from Somalia in order to ensure peace and security in the violent-stricken Horn of Africa country. “Eritrea sees that it is inevitable to establish durable peace in Somalia. Ending the so called foreign interference and occupation should be put as a mandatory condition for realizing the aspirations of Somali people in rebuilding the war-ravaged country,” he said.
The Eritrean minister renewed his country’s solidarity with the government and people of Sudan against the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for Sudanese President Omar Bashir on charges of crimes against humanity and war crimes in the Darfur region. “Such decisions would undermine the sovereignty and unity of Sudan.
Eritrea has rejected outright the arbitrary move of ICC on the very first day. We are of the firm view that the ICC move is posing a threat not merely to Sudan and its president but to all the countries in the region as well,” the minister said.
Referring to a question about Eritrea’s rejection of a Libyan initiative to solve the border dispute with Ethiopia, Ali Abdu said that the International Border Commission that was constituted following the Algiers Accord of 2000, had come forward with the final settlement of the border dispute between the two countries. “There was an agreement between the two countries earlier to accept provisions of the settlement.
However, the Ethiopian regime disavowed the agreement and refused to implement its provisions,” he said while rejecting any new initiative to settle the differences with Ethiopia as ‘they are not at all political’. “On the other hand, they are purely legal concerning with occupation of our land. We are determined not to hold talks with the neighboring country unless it withdraw forces from the Eritrean territories,” he said.
Ali Abdu refused to comment on the allegations of former US Administration that Eritrea was behind inciting troubles in Somalia. “False accusations against Eritrea were gone with the Bush Administration. Everybody knows the positive role of Eritrean government in Somalia as well as in its efforts to solve the problems in eastern Sudan, its mediatory role between Sudan and Chad and efforts to solve the Darfur problem,’ he said.
Referring to the government of Barack Obama, he hoped that the new US Administration would adopt a balanced and peaceful approach in its dealings with Eritrea. Ali Abdu blamed former President Bush for deteriorating the relations between Eritrea and the United States.
By Abdul Rahman Shaheen | Gulf News
‘If we think we’ve got a health care crisis, let me take you to Ethiopia’ – Dr. Matt Campbell
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Dr. Matt Campbell was ready to call it a night after a long first day in an Ethiopia hospital when a messenger said he was needed in the operating room.
A woman who had walked 15 days from a distant village just to arrive at Soddo Christian Hospital on her due date was in labor. After eight stillbirths, she needed a cesarean section to deliver her ninth baby if the child had any hope of survival.
But Campbell, 32, a general surgeon with Holy Family Memorial, hadn’t done a c-section in years. He and Dr. John Foor, a longtime friend and fellow missionary, grabbed a copy of Williams’ Obstetrics, crammed in the surgeons’ lounge and hoped for the best.
Then came the power outage.
The two operated by flashlight as they waited for a generator to kick in. Moments later, a baby boy emerged — happy, healthy and, best of all, breathing.
The Jan. 12 delivery was the first of 55 operations for Campbell of Manitowoc and Foor of Columbus, Ohio, during a two-week missionary trip to work at the hospital in Soddo, Ethiopia. The two cared for nearly 45 inpatients and 15 outpatients each day as they covered for two general surgeons, an orthopedic surgeon, a gynecologist and five surgical residents. Their stay was arranged through World Medical Mission, also known as Samaritan’s Purse.
“They knew that hospital was going to be without,” Campbell said, explaining the various reasons the medical professionals were away from Soddo at the time. “If you’re not there, there is no one else to treat their illnesses. Anything that could possibly need surgery, we were there for.”
Campbell and Foor trained together back in Ohio, Campbell’s home state, and opted for careers in medicine as a result of the same mentor-missionary, Dr. Pedro Obregon, also of Columbus.
“It’s doing trips like this that got me into medicine in the first place,” Campbell said. “It really lets you practice medicine as it was intended — to treat sick people.”
What most American medical professionals probably don’t expect to treat, however, are wild animal attacks — even “minor” ones. Campbell naturally was taken aback when a patient — with some severe scratches to his arm — arrived one day to have an eye tumor operated on.
“He wasn’t going to mention it,” Campbell recalled. “But we asked what happened to his arm and he said, ‘Oh yeah, that’s from the lion.’ He had actually been mauled by a lion on his way to the hospital.”
More surprising for Campbell, however, was the scope of the operations he was called to do while in Ethiopia. Like in the United States, patients arrive with bad cancers and require large operations — even with less equipment.
“You just have to do everything the old-fashioned way,” he said. “And everyone else just throws all their support behind you.”
He also got a quick lesson in true “general” surgery, as he was expected to perform all essential procedures, even those he typically wouldn’t do at Holy Family Memorial. In Ethiopia, Campbell removed a 5-pound kidney tumor from a 4-year-old boy. Here, he said he would have “very quickly” referred the child to a pediatric cancer specialist.
Campbell said the experience taught him to complain less, appreciate the luxuries of working in a well-stocked hospital, be thankful for the simple things — like nurses who speak English — and be more patient overall.
“If we think we’ve got a health care crisis, let me take you to Ethiopia,” he said.
Tack those lessons onto the countless others he’s taken from past missionary trips to Myanmar, Thailand, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Mongolia, Rwanda and the Philippines, and you’ll understand his drive to serve. His goal is to continue working one or two missionary trips every year.
“My passion is to get back in Myanmar and have a recurring presence there,” he said, acknowledging the current challenges of getting into the country. “In the meantime, I may go back to Ethiopia on a regular basis.”
The downside of Campbell’s trips is time away from his wife, Wendy, and daughters, Emma, 4, and Tessa, 2. The family moved to Manitowoc last summer, and Campbell started his post at Holy Family Memorial in July.
“Holy Family’s mission of community service was consistent with what I wanted to do,” Campbell said. “I’m loving the job here, too. I’m taking care of my neighbors every day.”
To learn more about Soddo Christian Hospital, visit www.soddo.org. For more about Holy Family Memorial, visit www.hfmhealth.org.
By Helen Clarke | Herald Times
By Jenny Higgins
It’s 9.20am and I’m standing in a corrugated iron shed, trying to get the group of 25 third graders I am teaching to settle down. It hasn’t been the most peaceful of lessons – first a dog staged a classroom invasion, then two children had a minor disagreement from which they had to be physically separated, and then the baby from next door decided that she wanted to help teach the class and wouldn’t stop screaming until I put her on my hip.
I definitely didn’t have these problems when I was working in schools in London.
But, as bizarre as it gets, I wouldn’t change it. These children are the reason that in the last year I’ve run 10k (with no training whatsoever), walked 24 miles in torrential rain, begged anyone I could think of for raffle prizes, and endlessly badgered friends, family and strangers alike to donate money, attend fundraisers and donate clothes, toys or books.
These children are the reason that I gave up my job, my house – my life! – in London, and moved to Ethiopia.
I first met them when I went on holiday to Ethiopia in October 2006, and I had some Birr (the local currency) left over. I wanted to donate it to a small, Ethiopian-run organisation, so in the backstreets of Addis Ababa, we came across Hanna Orphans Home.
The orphanage at that time supported just over 90 children who had lost parents to Aids (it’s now well over 200) and as the founder, Hanna Teshome, showed me round, I realised how easily I could help.
So, when I returned home to England, I embarked on one of the most unplanned – and most rewarding – schemes of my life; setting up the Hanna’s Orphanage charity.
An email sent to various friends managed to elicit bags of clothes, shoes and books. People started volunteering to help, money started trickling in, and I began to drown in forms as we registered ourselves as an official charity.
I made frequent trips to Addis, laden with resources, until finally, last year, we decided we needed someone to be out at the orphanage to oversee everything.
So, on July 28, I boarded a plane and moved to Ethiopia. It’s definitely an experience I wouldn’t have missed. I get to see the difference our small contribution makes, and I get to spend time with these children who are bright, funny and turning into fantastic young people, despite the things they’ve been through.
Take Samuel for instance. His mother died from HIV and his father married a woman who had children of her own and didn’t want another mouth to feed. So she told the police that Samuel was stealing from her, and he was taken to a remand centre – aged eight.
After spending 10 months in a remand home, he was released into the care of the orphanage and is now doing really well at school as well as being a mean football player.
Or there’s a 15-year-old girl who was sexually abused by her father from the age of five. She was rescued by neighbours when her mother died and they realised what was going on. The court put her father in prison and assigned her and her brothers to the orphanage. Although still quiet and wary of strangers, she is becoming more confident with every day.
The orphanage itself is growing fast. There are branches in Gotera and Shiro Meda in Addis Ababa, one branch in Harar and one in Jimma, with one soon to open in Hosanna. Generally, the children live in “families” of seven or eight, with a “house mother”, and attend school or are tutored at home.
The children are brought up as part of the community, so they are not isolated or made to feel different. It also means that the orphanage can act as a resource centre for the local community – some of whom are worse off than the orphanage children.
Our charity, Hanna’s Orphanage, is not a huge organisation but we send what we can when we can, and we all work hard to raise as much money as possible. We’re all volunteers (including me) and take no expenses so as much money as possible goes directly to the orphanage.
We’re helping young people in the UK as well, creating links between schools in the UK and in Ethiopia, and providing exposure for up and coming bands through our fundraising gigs.
My own life has completely changed. I work with another NGO in the north of Ethiopia (I have to support myself somehow) so I split my time between the gorgeous mountains of Lalibela and the hot, busy city of Addis Ababa.
I still help the children with their English – between dog and baby visits – but I also help the orphanage to write project proposals, newsletters and action plans. And when I’m playing football in the hot sun with 20 or so screaming 10-year-olds, my life in England seems very, very far away.
• For more information visit: www.hannasorphanage.org.uk
Source: Telegraph.co.uk
NEW YORK (UN Population Division/DESA) World population is projected to reach 7 billion early in 2012, up from the current 6.8 billion, and surpass 9 billion people by 2050, reveals the 2008 Revision of the official United Nations population estimates and projections, released today.
Ethiopia population count
1950: 18,434,000
2009: 82,825,000
2015: 96,237,000
2025: 119,822,000
2050: 173,811,000
(Source: DESA)
Click here for detailed figures.
Most of the additional 2.3 billion people will enlarge the population of developing countries, which is projected to rise from 5.6 billion in 2009 to 7.9 billion in 2050, and will be distributed among the population aged 15-59 (1.2 billion) and 60 or over (1.1 billion) because the number of children under age 15 in developing countries will decrease.
In contrast, the population of the more developed regions is expected to change minimally, passing from 1.23 billion to 1.28 billion, and would have declined to 1.15 billion were it not for the projected net migration from developing to developed countries, which is projected to average 2.4 million persons annually from 2009 to 2050.
The results of the 2008 Revision incorporate the findings of the most recent national population censuses and of numerous specialized population surveys carried out around the world. The 2008 Revision provides the demographic data and indicators to assess trends at the global, regional and national levels and to calculate many other key indicators commonly used by the United Nations system.
Population in developing countries still young
Currently the population of the less developed regions is still young, with children under age 15 accounting with 29 per cent of the population and young persons aged 15 to 24 accounting for a further 19 per cent. In fact, the numbers of children and young people in the less developed regions are at an all time high (1.7 billion children and 1.1 billion young people), posing a major challenge for their countries, which are faced with the necessity of providing education or employment to large cohorts of children and youth even as the current economic and financial crisis unfolds. The situation in the least developed countries is even more pressing because children under 15 constitute 40 per cent of their population and young people account for a further 20 per cent.
In the more developed regions, children and youth account for just 17 per cent and 13 per cent of the population, respectively, and whereas the number of children is expected to change little in background image the future, remaining close to 200 million, the number of young people is projected to decrease from 160 million currently to 134 million in 2050.
In both the more and the less developed regions, the number of people in the main working ages, 25 to 59, is at an all time high: 605 million and 2.5 billion, respectively. Yet, whereas in the more developed regions that number is expected to peak over the next decade and stagnate thereafter, in the less developed regions it will continue rising, reaching 3.6 billion in 2050 and increasing by nearly half a billion over the next decade. These population trends justify the urgency of supporting employment creation in developing countries as part of any strategy to address the global economic crisis that the world is experiencing.
Globally, population aged 60 or over is the fastest growing
Furthermore, the implications of population ageing cannot be dismissed. In the more developed regions, the population aged 60 or over is increasing at the fastest pace ever (growing at 1.9 per cent annually) and is expected to increase by more than 50 per cent over the next four decades, rising from 264 million in 2009 to 416 million in 2050. Compared with the more developed world, the population of the less developed regions is ageing rapidly. Over the next two decades, the population aged 60 or over in the developing world is projected to increase at rates far surpassing 3 per cent per year and its numbers are expected to rise from 475 million in 2009 to 1.6 billion in 2050.
Projected trends are contingent on fertility declines in developing countries
Population ageing results mainly from declining fertility. According to the 2008 Revision, fertility in the less developed regions as a whole is expected to drop from 2.73 children per woman in 2005-2010 to 2.05 in 2045-2050. The reduction projected for the group of 49 least developed countries is even steeper: from 4.39 children per woman to 2.41 children per woman. To achieve such reductions, it is essential that access to family planning expands, particularly in the least developed countries. Around 2005, the use of modern contraceptive methods in the least developed countries was a low 24 per cent among women of reproductive age who were married or in union and a further 23 per cent of those women had an unmet need for family planning. The urgency of realizing the projected reductions of fertility is brought into focus by considering that, if fertility were to remain constant at the levels estimated for 2005-2010, the population of the less developed regions would increase to 9.8 billion in 2050 instead of the 7.9 billion projected by assuming that fertility declines. That is, without further reductions of fertility, the world population could increase by nearly twice as much as currently expected.
Projected growth linked to sustained progress in HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment
The projected population trends also depend on achieving a major increase in the proportion of AIDS patients who get anti-retroviral therapy to treat the disease and on the success of efforts to control the further spread of HIV.
In the 2008 Revision, the impact of the epidemic was modeled in 58 countries where adult HIV prevalence reached 1 per cent or higher at some point during 1980-2007 or where the number of people living with HIV/AIDS was at least half a million in 2007. Among those 58 countries, 38 are in Africa and 15 had an adult HIV prevalence of at least 5 per cent in 2007.
The 2006 Revision modeled the impact of HIV/AIDS in 62 affected countries, five of which have been dropped from the list of affected countries in the 2008 Revision because their HIV prevalence was revised downward (Gambia, Madagascar, Moldova, Myanmar and Niger) and one background image has been added (Mauritius). In projecting the effect of the disease, it has been assumed that 26 of the affected countries will manage to provide by 2015 anti-retroviral treatment to 70 per cent or more of the persons suffering from AIDS and that another nine will reach treatment levels ranging from 50 per cent to 60 per cent by 2015. In the rest of the affected countries, treatment levels are expected to be lower, reaching between 40 per cent and 50 per cent by 2015. It is further assumed that persons receiving treatment survive, on average, 27.8 years instead of the 11.7 years expected in the absence of treatment.
These assumptions together with the generally lower prevalence levels estimated for recent years lead to an estimated 30 million fewer deaths during 2005-2020 than were projected in the 2006 Revision for the 58 countries concerned. However, the realization of these new projections depends on sustained funding for HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment programmes in the affected countries, funding that is highly dependent on the commitment of donor countries and needs to be maintained despite the global economic downturn.
The full results of the 2008 Revision will be issued in a series of three volumes and a wall chart that are currently under preparation. Data on particular countries can also be accessed online at the website of the Population Division (www.unpopulation.org).
For further information on the 2008 Revision, please contact Ms. Hania Zlotnik, Director, Population Division, New York, NY 10017, USA, (Tel: (212) 963-3179, Fax: (212) 963-2147).
2008 Revision of World Population Prospects
Key Findings
1. In July 2009, the world population will reach 6.8 billion, 313 million more than in 2005 or a gain of 78 million persons annually. Assuming that fertility levels continue to decline, the world population is expected to reach 9.1 billion in 2050 and to be increasing by about 33 million persons annually at that time, according to the medium variant.
2. Future population growth is highly dependent on the path that future fertility takes. In the medium variant, fertility declines from 2.56 children per woman in 2005-2010 to 2.02 children per woman in 2045-2050. If fertility were to remain about half a child above the levels projected in the medium variant, world population would reach 10.5 billion by 2050. A fertility path half a child below the medium would lead to a population of 8 billion by mid-century. Consequently, population growth until 2050 is inevitable even if
the decline of fertility accelerates.
3. In the more developed regions, fertility has increased slightly in recent years so that its estimated level in 2005-2010, 1.64 children per woman, according to the 2008 Revision is higher than the one reported in the 2006 Revision (1.60 children per woman). As a result of the slightly higher projected fertility and a sustained net in-migration averaging 2.4 million annually, the population of the more developed regions is expected to increase slightly from 1.23 billion in 2009 to 1.28 billion in 2050.
4. The population of the 49 least developed countries is still the fastest growing in the world, at 2.3 per cent per year. Although its rate of increase is expected to moderate significantly over the next decades, the population of the least developed countries is projected to double, passing from 0.84 billion in 2009 to 1.7 billion in 2050. Growth in the rest of the developing world is also projected to be robust, though less rapid, with its population rising from 4.8 billion to 6.2 billion between 2009 and 2050 according to the medium variant.
5. Slow population growth brought about by reductions in fertility leads to population ageing, that is, it produces populations where the proportion of older persons increases while that of younger persons decreases. In the more developed regions, 22 per cent of population is already aged 60 years or over and that proportion is projected to reach 33 per cent in 2050. In developed countries as a whole, the number of older persons has already surpassed the number of children (persons under age 15), and by 2050 the number of older persons in developed countries will be more than twice the number of children.
6. Population ageing is less advanced in developing countries. Nevertheless, the populations of a majority of them are poised to enter a period of rapid population ageing. In developing countries as a whole, just 9 per cent of the population is today aged 60 years or over but that proportion will more than double by 2050, reaching 20 per cent that year.
7. Globally, the number of persons aged 60 or over is expected almost to triple, increasing from 739 million in 2009 to 2 billion by 2050. Furthermore, already 65 per cent of the background image world’s older persons live in the less developed regions and by 2050, 79 per cent will do so.
8. In ageing populations, the numbers of persons with older ages grow faster the higher the age range considered. Thus, whereas the number of persons aged 60 or over is expected to triple, that of persons aged 80 or over (the oldest-old) is projected to increase four-fold, to reach 395 million in 2050. Today, just about half of the oldest-old live in developing countries but that share is expected to reach 69 per cent in 2050.
9. Although the population of all countries is expected to age over the foreseeable future, the population will remain relatively young in countries where fertility is still high, many of which are experiencing very rapid population growth. High population growth rates prevail in many developing countries, most of which are least developed. Between 2010 and 2050, the populations of 31 countries, the majority of which are least developed, will double or more. Among them, the populations of Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Niger, Somalia, Timor-Leste and Uganda are projected to increase by 150 per cent or more.
10. In sharp contrast, the populations of 45 countries or areas are expected to decrease between 2010 and 2050. These countries include Belarus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cuba, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, the Republic of Korea, Romania, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, all of which are expected to see their populations decline by at least 10 per cent by 2050.
11. Population growth remains concentrated in the populous countries. During 2010-2050, nine countries are expected to account for half of the world’s projected population increase: India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Ethiopia, the United States of America, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the United Republic of Tanzania, China and Bangladesh, listed according to the size of their contribution to global population growth.
12. Fertility has continued to fall in the vast majority of countries in the less developed regions. The number of developing countries with high fertility (5 children or more per woman) declined from 59 in 1990-1995 to 27 in 2005-2010, and their share of the world population dropped from 13 per cent to 9 per cent. Over the same period, the number of developing countries with fertility levels that do not ensure the replacement of the population increased from 15 to 38.
13. Most developed countries have had below-replacement fertility (below 2.1 children per woman) for two or three decades. Among the 45 developed countries with at least 100,000 inhabitants in 2009, 42 had below-replacement fertility in 1990-1995 and 44 did in 2005-2010. However, between the 2000-2005 and 2005-2010, 34 developed countries experienced slight increases in fertility. For the more developed regions as a whole, total fertility increased from 1.58 to 1.64 children per woman between those two periods. Yet, in 2005-2010, 25 developed countries, including Japan and most of the countries in Southern and Eastern Europe, still had fertility levels below 1.5 children per woman.
14. In 2005-2010, the 76 countries with below-replacement fertility accounted for 47 per cent of the world population. The most populous developing countries with below-replacement fertility are China, Brazil, Viet Nam, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Thailand and the Republic of Korea, in order of population size.
15. Globally, total fertility is expected to fall from 2.56 children per woman in 2005-2010 to 2.02 in 2045-2050 according to the medium variant. However, in the more developed regions, total fertility is projected to increase from 1.64 children per woman currently to 1.80 in 2045-2050. A major reduction of fertility is projected for the group of least developed countries (from 4.39 to 2.41 children per woman) and the fertility of the rest of the developing world is expected to drop from 2.46 children per woman currently to 1.93 in 2045-2050, thus nearly converging to the fertility levels by then typical of the developed world.
16. The median age, that is, the age that divides the population in two halves of equal size, is an indicator of population ageing. Globally, the median age is projected to increase from 29 to 38 years between 2009 and 2050. Europe has today the oldest population, with a median age of nearly 40 years, which is expected to reach 47 years in 2050.
17. The median age is higher in countries that have been experiencing low fertility for a long time. In 2010, 19 developed countries or areas are expected to have a median age of 40 years or higher, up from 11 in 2005. In addition, two developing countries, Hong Kong SAR China and Singapore, have also reached median ages above 40 years. The pervasiveness of population ageing will increase by 2050 when all 45 developed countries are projected to have median ages higher than 40 years and 43 developing countries will also have similarly high median ages. Whereas today about 7 per cent of the world population lives in countries where median ages are 40 years or higher, the equivalent proportion in 2050 is projected to be 43 per cent.
18. Countries where fertility remains high and has declined only moderately will experience the slowest population ageing. By 2050, slightly fewer than one in five countries is projected to have a median age under 30 years (37 countries). The youngest populations will be found among the least developed countries, eight of which are projected to have median ages below 25 years in 2050, including Afghanistan, Chad, Guinea-Bissau, Niger, Somalia, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania and Zambia.
19. Increasing longevity also contributes to population ageing. Globally, life expectancy at birth is projected to rise from 68 years in 2005-2010 to 76 years in 2045-2050. In the more developed regions, the projected increase is from 77 years in 2005-2010 to 83 years inn 2045-2050, while in the less developed regions the increase is expected to be from 66 years currently to 74 years by mid-century.
20. Life expectancy remains low in the least developed countries, at just 56 years in 2005-2010, and although it is projected to reach 69 years in 2045-2050, realizing such increase is contingent on reducing the spread of HIV and combating successfully other infectious diseases. Similar challenges must be confronted if the projected increase of life expectancy in the rest of the developing countries, from under 68 years today to 76 years by mid-century, is to be achieved.
21. A major concern is that most developing countries are unlikely to meet the goal of reducing under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015, as called for in the Millennium Development Goals. According to the 2008 Revision, 134 of the 151 developing countries with more than 100,000 inhabitants in 2009 will not reach that goal. Furthermore, 59 developing countries, located mainly in sub-Saharan Africa or belonging to the group of least developed countries, are projected to have in 2015 an under-five mortality higher than 45 deaths per 1000, the less demanding target set by the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development.
22. Among the more developed regions, Eastern Europe has the lowest life expectancy and it has experienced reductions in life expectancy at birth since the late 1980s. In 2005-2010 life expectancy in the region increased somewhat but at 69.2 years was lower than it had been in 1965-1970 (69.6 years). Despite having recorded some recovery since the late 1990s, Moldova, the Russian Federation and Ukraine have currently the lowest life expectancies among developed countries (below 70 years).
23. Although the HIV/AIDS epidemic continues to be a major issue of concern in the global health agenda, adult HIV prevalence reached a peak over the past decade or so in at least two thirds of the 58 countries considered to be most affected by the epidemic and a growing number of them are reaching and maintaining lower prevalence levels. Nevertheless, in countries where prevalence has been high, the impact of the epidemic in terms of morbidity, mortality and slower population growth continues to be evident. Thus, in Southern Africa, the region with the highest prevalence of the disease, life expectancy has fallen from 61 years in 1990-1995 to 52 years in 2005-2010 and is only recently beginning to increase. Nevertheless, life expectancy in the region is not expected to recover the level it had in the early 1990s before 2045. As a consequence, the growth rate of the population in the region has plummeted, passing from 2.4 per cent annually in 1990-1995 to 0.6 per cent annually in 2005-2010 and is expected to continue declining for the foreseeable future.
24. Given the low fertility prevailing in developed countries, deaths are expected to exceed births over the foreseeable future. Consequently, the population of the more developed regions would be decreasing if the excess of deaths over births were not counterbalanced by a net migration gain. During 2010-2050, the net number of international migrants to more developed regions is projected to be 96 million, whereas the excess of deaths over births is 58 million, implying an overall growth of 38 million.
25. In 2005-2010, net migration in nine countries or areas more than doubled the contribution of natural increase (births minus deaths) to population growth: Belgium, Macao SAR China, Luxembourg, Malta, Qatar, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain. In addition, in a further 11 countries or areas, net migration counterbalanced totally or in part the excess of deaths over births. These countries are: Austria, the Channel Islands, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Portugal and the Russian Federation.
26. In terms of annual averages, the major net receivers of international migrants during 2010-2050 are projected to be the United States (1.1 million annually), Canada (214,000), the United Kingdom (174,000), Spain (170,000), Italy (159,000), Germany (110,000), Australia (100,000) and France (100,000). The major countries of net emigration are projected to be Mexico (-334,000), China (-309,000 annually), India (-253,000), the Philippines (-175,000), Pakistan (-161,000), Indonesia (-156,000) and Bangladesh (-148,000). Although the current economic crisis may reduce migration flows in comparison to those registered over the recent past, the major economic and demographic asymmetries that will persist are likely to remain powerful generators of international migration over the medium-term future.
Binyam Mohamed, the former Guantánamo Bay detainee and an immigrant from Ethiopia who claims that MI5 colluded in his torture, should be considered for deportation, the Conservative Party said.