ADDIS ABABA, Ethioipa (Reuters) – Ethiopian Airlines’ first-half net profit climbed 9 percent to 515 million birr ($46 million), the airline said in a statement on Friday.

Revenue rose to 6.7 billion birr in the six months ended Dec. 31, a 54.8 percent increase on the same period a year before.

Ethiopian Airlines Chief Executive Girma Wake said profit increased due to growth in traffic, the introduction of new routes, an augmentation of cargo revenue and streamlining of the airline’s operational and marketing sections.

‘Ethiopian remains optimistic its performance will be sustained going forward considering the strategic cost reduction efforts and improved operating procedures we have in place,’ he said.

The airline carried 1.5 million passengers, a 19 percent increase on the same period last year, and doubled cargo carried to 55,000 tonnes.

The state-owned carrier dropped flights to the United States and China last month as the global financial crisis hit passenger numbers.

(Reporting by Barry Malone; Editing by David Holmes)

WARS, GUNS, AND VOTES: Democracy in Dangerous Places
By Paul Collier
255 pp. Harper/HarperCollins Publishers

Reviewd by Kenneth Roth

These days no self-respecting government wants to present itself on the world stage without the legitimacy of a democratic mantle. Elections are now de rigueur, even if many a despot rejects the idea of actually abiding by voter preferences. The result is an embrace of “democracy” by such authoritarian leaders as Vladimir Putin of Russia, Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia, Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan, Umaru Yar’Adua of Nigeria and Mwai Kibaki of Kenya. They all have used some combination of violence, fraud and repression to ensure that elections do not threaten their grasp on power.

They get away with this charade in part because the Western democracies that might be expected to demand the real thing have economic and strategic incentives to settle for farce. Rather than insist on the elements of democracy that make it meaningful — a free press, a vigorous civil society, the rule of law, a fair and transparent process for counting ballots — they close their eyes to electoral travesty.

It has long been an article of faith that these pseudodemocracies are inherently unstable. When citizens have no real opportunity to select their leaders, grievances fester, and violence may be close behind. But it is one thing to know of this phenomenon, quite another to prove it. In “Wars, Guns, and Votes,” Paul Collier has set out to bring empirical rigor to our intuitions.

A professor of economics at Oxford, Collier examines the governments of what, in an earlier book, he called the “bottom billion” — the world’s 58 most impoverished countries. He undertakes this daunting task by summarizing an array of sophisticated economic and social science research, all in a folksy, accessible style. For those who want statistical chapter and verse, he refers readers to his Web site.

Collier’s primary conclusion: democracy, in the superficial, election-focused form that tends to prevail in these countries, “has increased political violence instead of reducing it.” Without rules, traditions, and checks and balances to protect minorities, distribute resources fairly and subject officials to the law, these governments lack the accountability and legitimacy to discourage rebellion. The quest for power becomes a “life-and-death struggle” in which “the contestants are driven to extremes.”

Collier’s data show that before an election, warring parties may channel their antagonisms into politics, but that violence tends to flare up once the voting is over. What’s more, when elections are won by threats, bribery, fraud and bloodshed, such so-called democracies tend to promote bad governance, since the policies needed to retain power are quite different from those needed to serve the common good.

Ethnic identification in the multiethnic societies that predominate among the bottom billion is a particular impediment. Leaders have no incentive to perform well, Collier explains, if voters cast ballots according to ethnic loyalty rather than governmental competence. Nor should we be fooled into thinking that democracy is working just because voters turn out in large numbers. Where identity politics prevail, “voting is likely to be primarily expressive,” like “wearing a football scarf.” It doesn’t mean voters have faith that their ballots will lead to more effective government. Besides, because news organizations in these countries are weak and objective information scarce, citizens probably don’t even know how well or how badly their leaders are performing.

To flourish among the bottom billion, Collier says, democracy must “gradually erode ethnic identities and replace them with a national identity.” Economic development helps, but in societies riven by ethnic divisions, it can simply increase the stakes to be parceled out among the different groups. According to Collier, what is essentially needed are visionary leaders who can build identification with the nation as a whole.

The West’s mistaken fixation with elections, according to Collier, has mainly to do with lingering cold war habits. The Soviet dread of the ballot, he writes, “confused us into thinking that achieving a competitive election is in itself the key triumph. The reality is that rigging elections is not daunting: only the truly paranoid dictators avoid them.”

Still, electoral shortcomings in these countries do not mean we should give up on democracy altogether. It’s the cheap imitation that should give us pause. As Collier explains, “democracy is a force for good” as long as it is more than a ­“facade.”

Collier’s analysis is filled with interesting statistical tidbits. For example, coups tend to cost a country 7 percent of a year’s income — “not a cheap way of replacing a government,” he notes. And international aid, by sweetening the honey pot, increases the risk of a coup — by roughly a third when aid amounts to 4 percent of the gross domestic product of a recipient nation. Leakage from international development assistance finances some 40 percent of military budgets, yet military spending doesn’t necessarily bring peace. Quite the opposite. It can jeopardize peace by signaling to potential rebels that the government “is planning to turn nasty.”

But Collier’s news is not all bad. If democracy (in its limited form) tends to increase political violence in the poorest countries, the opposite occurs once per capita income reaches about $2,700. These wealthier voters apparently expect more responsive governments, and are prone to revolt if their expectations are dashed. Since China recently passed this income threshold, the statistics suggest that it risks increasing political violence unless it democratizes.

The weakest part of “War, Guns, and Votes” occurs when Collier turns prescriptive. At the most general level, his recommendations are unexceptionable: because electoral competition promotes antidemocratic practices if there is no other accountability, the governments of the bottom billion need help to be made more accountable. Yet Collier’s solution is questionable. He proposes that Western governments declare they will accept military coups if elections are not fair. This, he argues, would provide a powerful incentive for leaders to allow meaningful balloting. But legitimizing coups in this way also risks substantial bloodshed.

By contrast, if an elected leader follows agreed-upon rules, Collier wants the West to guarantee his government against overthrow. It should be pointed out that Collier does not support military interventions to stop mass atrocities — the killing in Darfur, for example — which he somewhat callously dismisses as “distracting fantasies.” But his suggestion that Western militaries might roam the world putting down coups, even if only against genuinely democratic leaders, seems dangerous and naïve. Collier suggests that interventions in small, less-developed countries would be relatively easy for a military trained for such exercises — “not another Iraq.” Recent experience would lead us to think otherwise.

Collier is better at responding to the objection that he is advocating interference in other nations’ internal affairs. Many of the governments of the bottom billion, made sensitive by their colonial heritages, reject any international pressure as an affront to their sovereignty. But as Collier points out, these governments typically do not really have national sovereignty, since they have yet to develop a national identity or national institutions. They have only “presidential sovereignty” — hardly the same thing, and hardly worth defending.

Whatever one’s feelings about Collier’s recommendations, there is no denying that he has made a substantial contribution to current discussions. His evidence-based approach is a worthwhile corrective to the assumptions about democracy that too often tend to dominate when Western policy makers talk about the bottom billion.

(Kenneth Roth is the executive director of Human Rights Watch.)

PORTLAND, OREGON – Mahmoud Ibrahim Gilani, 32, of Portland, was sentenced today to 114 months in federal prison for an armed bank robbery that occurred in Portland on June 5, 2007. Gilani is a citizen of Ethiopia.

U.S. District Judge Ancer L. Haggerty imposed a mandatory seven-year (84-month) term for brandishing a firearm during a crime of violence, and a consecutive 30-month term for the robbery, for a total of 114 months. Gilani has been in federal custody since the day of the robbery.

The robbery occurred at the Rose City Branch of Bank of America, located inside a Safeway store at 6901 NE Sandy Boulevard. Gilani pointed a pistol at tellers and customers, pulled back the gun’s slide, and demanded money. He received $6,903.00 in cash and fled from the building. Portland police officers apprehended Gilani driving alone in a car a short distance away. In a pants pocket they found a 9 mm semiautomatic pistol, loaded with a round chambered. Investigation showed that Gilani had robbed the same bank on April 27, 2007.

Upon completion of the prison sentence, immigration authorities will determine whether he is allowed to remain in the United States.

The case was investigated by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and prosecuted by Assistant U.S. Attorney Stephen F. Peifer.

Department of Justice Press Release
Karin J. Immergut, U.S. Attorney
District of Oregon
Contact: (503) 727-1000

EDITOR’S NOTE: While over 15 million Ethiopians are going hungry, Woyanne-affiliated companies are doubling profits from exporting livestock.

ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) – Ethiopia plans to more than double earnings from livestock exports to $85 million in 2009 by curbing illegal trade and opening new marketing centres, a government official said on Friday.

The Horn of Africa country sold 297,662 heads of livestock for $40 million in 2008 but hopes to raise this by exporting 429,244 livestock for $85 million this year, according to Berhe Igziabher, head of the Animal and Plant Health Regulatory Body.

“The country plans to transform the old and backward type of animal husbandry into a modern ranching system and export processed meat, hides and skin and other leather goods rather than live animals,” Berhe said.

Ethiopia has an estimated 41 million cattle, 25 million sheep, 23 million goats and 150,000 camels, but poor husbandry and contraband trade with neighbouring countries have kept the industry underdeveloped.

The country has also started programmes to check smuggling of animals through neighbouring Djibouti and Somalia.

“We know that Djibouti, a Red Sea state where animals could not thrive due to the country’s climatic conditions, has become a livestock exporter and we also know that 60 percent of livestock being exported by Somalia are those taken from Ethiopia through contraband trade,” Berhe said.

To curb the black market trade, the government has established markets in remote areas to cater for pastoralists in far flung areas such as Afar and Somali.

Berhe said the main thrust of Ethiopia’s livestock development policy would not centre on live animal exports alone.

The government has established a new institution — Ethiopian Meat and Dairy Technology Institute — whose mandate is to enhance modern dairy farming and improve the stock and quality of cattle in the country, he said.

The body will also help pastoralists protect their livestock against the vagaries of climate change by providing feeds and water and veterinary medicine in each districts, he said.

The country’s leather sector earned $103 million last year and plans to take $190 million from leather exports in 2009, according to the Ethiopian Leather Industries Association.

J.Crew Catalog’s April 2009 issue features Ethiopian supermodel {www:Liya Kebede}. The catalog has arrived in many of its stores this week.

Liya earlier this month took Paris Fashion Week by storm — and landed opening Balenciaga spot — and now she’s owning in another area. She’s becoming the first model to be the exclusive face of a J.Crew catalog, and the retailer is picking up pieces from her handmade children’s clothing line, Lemlem, to sell in stores and online as part of their children’s Crewcuts line starting in April.

When J.Crew creative director Jenna Lyons and team met supermodel, mother of two, and International Goodwill Ambassador Liya Kebede, a relationship was born. Lyons approached Kebede to appear in the April catalog, but both quickly realized their relationship needn’t end there. The product of their partnership? Not only will Kebede be the first model to be the exclusive face of a J.Crew catalog, but J.Crew’s Crewcuts line will pick up pieces from the model’s handmade children’s clothing line, Lemlem. Lemlem (the name means “to bloom”) was launched by Kebede in 2007, with all of the pieces made by hand from natural cotton in her native Ethiopia. The line will be available at Crewcuts store locations and at jcrew.com beginning in April. – Fashion Week Daily

See more photos of Liya Kebede here.

By Yilma Bekele.

There is a saying in our country. የፈሩት ይደርሳል፤ የጠሉት ይወርሳል (Yeferut yedersal Ye telut yeworsal.) It means what scares you most will happen and the one you despise will inherit your wealth. So it is with our country. We never thought any one could top the Derg in brutality. The TPLF proved us wrong. We did not anticipate the little rag tag militia is capable of assuming power. We were blindsided by Herman Cohen and Mengistu. Enough about yesterday, this article is about today.

“ As a result, coffee export are significantly lower this year,” he said. “The government may be forced to take over stocks held in private warehouses and provide it to the market.” The ‘he’ is the Prime Minster and his audience is his voiceless and tooth less gang called the Parliament. Believe me he is not talking about the coffee drinking public in Ethiopia. That is not his concern. When he says ‘provide it to the market’ he is talking about selling it for Dollars, Euros or Yen.

It is like father like son situation. His mentor Mengistu, in the name of socialism confiscated all personal property. Meles enshrined it his constitution. His recent statement regarding confiscation is a reflection of his mind set that was established over thirty years ago. He is still fixated with the concept that the government knows better. He refuses to grow up and change. Stalinism and Enver Hoxha are his heroes and guiding lights.

This single statement is a mirror reflecting the logic and mentality of the minority based government. It is not a through analysis to find the root cause of the problem and come up with a lasting solution. It is typical TPLF knee jerk reaction. Always a stopgap solution for single use to be discarded until the next crisis that is always around the corner.

Let us really look into this solution threatened by the fearless leader. So his logic goes the country needs foreign currency. The government credit rating is less than junk bond, thus no one will lend us money. But we need the foreign currency to buy food, oil and pay off the interest on existing loans. Is it time to look into the polices that got us into this predicament? Well that will be too rational and smart way of looking at situations. Why revise a failed policy that is causing undue hardship when you can pull another infantile idea from your hat.

Unfortunately the first urge of the TPLF regime is to resort to illegal means. When in doubt use force and coercion, that is Woyane’s motto. But you might ask does he have the constitutional power to do that? Even if he can force the rubberstamp Parliament to pass such law, can’t the courts stop such flagrant violation of the rights of the coffee merchants? Yes he can. The parliament and the courts are nothing but a façade.

It is a highly confusing situation. The claim is Ethiopia’s economy is based on the capitalist free enterprise model. Well sort of. There is this little issue of all land belonging to the government that sort of distorts the capitalist model. Well, if you ask there is also this little item of the government owning the telecommunication industry, Internet, television, radio transmission and electricity production. What is left for the citizen you might ask? Right now most are relegated to running hotels, bars, restaurants, nightclubs and tearooms.

The question that comes to mind is can a hybrid capitalist system confiscate the property of its citizens? May be revolutionary democracy allows that. Let us look at this coffee situation closely. Let us say Ato Meles manages to ‘convince’ his Parliament to give him the authority, how does he go about doing it? Does he buy the coffee from the merchants or do they lose ownership without pay. Since the merchants paid for the coffee and are waiting for favorable time to sell it for a profit how does the government arrive at a price? If the coffee is bought with bank loans, do the merchants still owe the bank after the confiscation?

Actually we have the answers from previous encounters with Woyane’s policies. Do you remember the 2005 election? Woyane lost. What did they do? They confiscated all the ballot boxes except in Addis. Do you remember the money changing business? Woyane needed cash. They confiscated all the foreign currency in sight. They claimed growing flowers is the future. When the market dried up what did they do? They threatened the growers that leased the land that it will be resold to the next bidder. When they were cornered by the Diaspora Ethiopians, and International organizations regarding the illegal imprisonment of Kinijit leaders, journalists and civic leaders they concocted some deal using less than honorable individuals and caved in. But that was temporary, now they have Judge Bertukan in prison. Woyane confiscates property and people.

None of the above polices worked. They all backfired. Success is not measured in terms of longevity of the regime rather in terms of the quality of life of the people. The TPLF regime is obviously in power, but at what cost? The economy is deteriorating and the discontent is ascending. Sooner or later no mater what it will reach a critical point. It looks like they can see it coming but are unable and unwilling to change their behavior. It happened to Mengistu too. Ceausescu of Romania was blinded until he was silenced with a two feet rope. Just look at Bashir acting like a cornered rat. So you don’t think it could not happen to you? That is what Charles Taylor said!

Cutting of hands does not work. Confiscating people’s property and assets is not a good idea. There are no instances of this kind of illegal act working anywhere. What works is devising a policy with everyone’s participation and goodwill. What works is consultation and an open debate to arrive at a lasting and fair solution. What works is using democratic means to empower the citizen and making them partners in formulating policies.