Ethiopia’s Prime Minister dictator Meles Zenawi says he wants to step down after 18 years running sub-Saharan Africa’s second most populous country. Meles says he is “bored” of questions about this, and will only repeat he needs the permission of his ruling party before he can leave.
So when might he go? And what will happen if he does? Here are some possible scenarios:
MELES GOES AT SEPTEMBER PARTY CONGRESS?
*Unlikely. The 54-year-old needs the permission of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) party’s annual September congress before he can move aside. But it is doubtful he will ask for its blessing this year, analysts say. And, even if he did, they probably would not accept it a year before Ethiopia has its next national election due in June 2010.
OPPOSITION WIN 2010 ELECTIONS, MELES LOSES POWER?
* This would be a shock. The 2005 elections — touted as Ethiopia’s first truly democratic poll — ended in violence when Meles claimed victory, the opposition shouted fraud and about 200 protestors were killed by police and soldiers. Meles said they were trying to march on state buildings and topple him.
* More than 100 opposition leaders, journalists and aid workers were jailed after the government blamed them for orchestrating the violence. Despite the prisoners’ release in a 2007 pardon deal, the opposition has remained weak ever since.
* They say that is because the government harasses them. Meles denies that and says the opposition criticises the government to ruin its image and provoke the rich world into cutting the aid on which the desperately poor country relies.
* A ruling party triumph would probably please Western powers and investors who are used to doing business with Meles and his ministers.
* If the opposition wins, the future will be uncertain for one of Africa’s biggest potential markets. With no obvious alternative prime minister, potential investors might play wait-and-see. Foreign powers and international lenders like the IMF and the World Bank would jostle for policy influence.
MELES WINS IN 2010, OPPOSITION CRY FOUL?
* There are fears of a repeat of violence if Meles wins the next election and the opposition protest again. If the opposition parties go into the election as weak as they are now, they may find it difficult to convince Ethiopians and the world to support their claims.
* If the opposition was to strengthen before 2010 and credibly claim fraud, people would listen. After the violence of 2005, some countries withdrew aid. But — worried about hurting some of the world’s most vulnerable people — they quickly reinstated it. Ethiopia is the key U.S. ally in the volatile Horn of Africa region and sent troops into neighbouring Somalia in 2006 to oust an Islamist group who controlled the country.
* But despite Ethiopia’s close relations with the West, allegations of fraud or violence would be more difficult for the international community to take a second time and the country could see its aid slashed, plunging it deeper into poverty.
EPRDF WINS ELECTION, NO VIOLENCE, MELES RESIGNS?
* This is the most likely scenario. The weakened opposition will not be a serious threat at the next polls, most people believe. Meles will probably resign within two years and be replaced by a party loyalist who will continue his domestic, economic and foreign policies.
* Stepping down mid-term would raise interesting questions. The EPRDF is made up of four parties, each representing one of Ethiopia’s biggest ethnicities. The Tigryan ethnic group — of which Meles is a member — make up only 6 percent of the population but dominate the country’s political and military establishment. With Meles gone, the ethnic Amharas — who have traditionally made up the Ethiopian elite — will argue one of their party members should take over. The country’s most populous ethnic group, the Oromos, who have never held power, will offer a compromise candidate.
* Bearing this ethnic tension in mind, the most important task for whoever takes over will be maintaining party unity. If the ruling party broke up, Ethiopia’s future would become uncertain and investors and the international community may worry.
MELES SERVES ANOTHER 5-YEAR TERM, RUNS AGAIN?
* Some Ethiopians are claiming Meles saying he wants to resign is a ruse to make him appear more democratic than he is. If he vacates the top chair, he would be the first Ethiopian leader in modern history not to have been violently overthrown.
* But most analysts say the much-repeated intention is probably genuine. Meles is unlikely to serve another five years and even less likely to ever run again beyond that. If he were to continue indefinitely, opposition would grow and some may seek to overthrow the EPRDF.
A group of 32 mostly former and serving military officers are on trial in Addis Ababa accused of attempting to oust Meles.
* If he gives up power soon, analysts say he will leave a legacy of economic progress and improved relations with the West, marred by accusations of human rights abuses.
Oslo, Norway – The world’s greatest women’s distance runners Tirunesh Dibaba and Meseret Defar, the ‘Duelling D’s’ of Ethiopia will clash over 5000m at the ExxonMobil Bislett Games in Oslo, Norway, on Friday 3 July, the second leg of the six meeting ÅF Golden League.
These two great Ethiopians rivals have agreed to compete against each other in the stadium where both have tasted victory and broken the World record for 5000m.
Bislett Backdrop
15 June 2007: Meseret Defar demolishes the previous World record by nearly 8 seconds with a time of 14.16.63
6 June 2008: Tirunesh Dibaba destroys Defar’s World record by 5 seconds with a time of 14.11.15, a time which stands as the existing World standard.
In the meantime Defar has lowered her personal best to 14.12.88 (22 July 2008 Stockholm).
Defar holds the 5000m ‘head to head’ edge
Over 5000m these two athletes have raced 23 times (finals only) since their first meeting in the World Junior Championships of 2002 when Defar became champion ahead of Dibaba. Defar holds the edge over Dibaba finishing ahead on 12 occasions to her compatriots 11 successes.
In the 2004 Olympic 5000m final, Defar won the title with Dibaba in bronze, but these positions were reversed in Beijing last summer when Dibaba completed an historic Olympic distance running double by also taking the 10,000m title. Dibaba took the World 5000m title in 2003 and 2005 on the latter occasion with Defar in silver medal position, who in turn took the gold in Osaka.
Cheruiyot and Melkamu to challenge
This year’s Bislett 5000m could be the best women’s 5000m race ever assembled with a new World record again a possibility as Defar and Dibaba will not be racing alone.
A huge challenge will be offered by Kenyan Vivian Cheruiyot, the World silver medallist and the third fastest 5000m runner in history behind these two Ethiopians. Incidentally her national record of 14:22.51 was set when she finished second behind Defar in Oslo in 2007.
Meselech Melkamu of Ethiopia, who set the African record over 10,000m on 27 May this year in Utrecht, will also offer the highest calibre of opposition. Melkamu’s time of 29:53.80 now makes her the second quickest over 10,000m in history, and on this form her 5000m PB of 14:33.83 (2007) is certainly set for revision in Bislett.
London (SkyNews) — The man behind the world’s biggest online Michael Jackson fan club has said heartbroken followers of the star have committed suicide because of his death.
Gary Taylor, president and owner of MJJcommunity.com, said he understood the tragedies had mostly taken place outside of the UK but he believed one may have been British.
“I know there has been an increase, I now believe the figure is 12. I believe there may have been one Briton who has taken his life,” he said.
“It is a serious situation that these people are going through but Michael Jackson would never want this. He would want them to live.”
Jesse Jackson, a friend of the singer, has recorded a YouTube film on the site urging fans not to “self destruct”.
He said: “This is a time when hearts are heavy. There is great pain but great cause to celebrate Michael’s life.
“It made Michael happy saying ‘We Are The World’. Don’t self destruct.
“We fall down sometimes, we get back up. That’s the right thing to do. In Michael’s name let’s live together as brothers and sisters and not die apart as fools.”
MJJcommunity.com was formed 10 years ago by Mr Taylor, a London office manager, and has more than 14,000 online users and 30 staff worldwide.
He said the singer’s death had left his fans on the forum “in a surreal place”.
“They can’t accept it, they feel in some sort of different reality,” he said.
“I’m stunned that he’s dead. One minute he is coming here for concerts and the next he is gone.
“I think the funeral will be where the reality kicks in that he is gone and won’t be coming back, there will be a huge depression in the fan community when that happens.”
Thousands of Michael Jackson fans are expected to gather for a vigil on July 13 at the O2 Arena where the star was due to perform.
They will assemble at Canary Wharf from 1pm before moving on to the 02 from 6pm.
The White House event highlighted nonprofit programs that are making a difference. Alfa Demmellash was invited after White House staffers saw her being profiled on CNN.
Demmellash runs Rising Tide Capital, a company in New Jersey that helps low-income entrepreneurs start or grow their businesses.
Her organization “helps struggling mom-and-pop entrepreneurs get loans, run their businesses and improve their profit margins,” Obama told the gathering at the East Room of the White House.
“Seventy percent of their clients are single moms. All of them rely on their businesses to support their families. And so far, Rising Tide has helped 250 business owners in the state of New Jersey.
“Imagine if they could help 500 or 1,000 or more … all across America. If we empower organizations like these, think about the number of young people … whose lives we can change, the number of families whose livelihoods we can boost.”
Obama pointed out Demmelash to the crowd with his trademark self-deprecating humor: “We’ve got Alfa Demmellash from Rising Tide Capital … where’s Alfa … right over there. Did I pronounce your name right? Good. When your name’s Barack Obama, you’re sensitive to these things.”
Demmellash, who was born in Ethiopia, started Rising Tide in 2004 with Harvard University classmate Alex Forrester — now her husband — to help those who had ideas and abilities but needed the education and support to launch or grow their businesses.
The group runs the Community Business Academy, an intensive training session coupled with year-round coaching and mentorship to help individuals “really work on the hands-on management side of their business,” Demmellash said.
The organization supports underserved populations, including women, the formerly incarcerated, minorities, the unemployed and working poor, and immigrants and refugees.
Rising Tide Capital raises money from corporations and works with local governments for funding in order to provide classes and support its participants at affordable costs.
Participants pay a small materials and registration fee based on their income range: either $100 or $225 for the course that Demmellash says would cost thousands of dollars otherwise.
The organization has also built partnerships with micro-lenders, so when students are ready, the lenders provide financing.
Many of the students use the increased earnings from their new businesses to supplement their wages, allowing them to better provide for their families and transform the face of their communities, according to Demmellash.
“I am personally blown away that our work as a small grass-roots organization made it onto [the president’s] radar,” Demmellash wrote in an e-mail after the White House event. “But the validation and meaning his recognition gives to the efforts of the many struggling entrepreneurs in this country working to achieve self sufficiency and create jobs as well as those hundreds in this field working to support them is immeasurable.
“I am grateful for his support and for CNN Heroes for bringing our story of economic hope, perseverance and self-reliance that is central to the American dream to the ears of our president.”
LILONGWE (Nyasatimes) — Malawi Police at Lumbadzi in Lilongwe have arrested 169 Ethiopian refugees who were attempting to escape from Dzaleka refugee camp in Dowa.
This is the fourth time in three months police have arrested such a huge number of Ethiopians trying to flee the country using unlawful means. Most of these Ethiopians enter the country using unchartered routes in Northern districts of Malawi.
Lumbadzi Police Officer-in-Charge Effie Sato said the Ethiopians were arrested on Tuesday after getting a tip from the public who became suspicious with huge group of strange people.
“The refugees were taking a rest at a Chinese shop and some people got fishy with them and reported to our office,” said the Lumbadzi police boss.
The refugees are said to have carried maize and water and were reportedly heading for Zimbabwe.
“We are currently facilitating to take them back to the camp. We arrested them because they had no travel documents,” said the Officer-in-Charge.
According to Sato, one of the refugees, who was the only one who could communicate in English, said they decided to flee the camp because they are encountering myriad hitches at the camp like poor diet and sanitation.
The refugee also explained that five of their countrymen have died this year due to poor diet and healthy facilities and were buried right there.
Over 600 Ethiopian Refugees have been arrested this year alone for attempting to escape the camp for greener pastures in Zimbabwe and South Africa.
Two weeks ago, group and village headmen surrounding Dzaleka Refugee camp asked government to urgently find means of instilling discipline among the Ethiopian asylum seekers.
The development came after the foreigners invaded Mengwe village in the area of T/A Chikukula where they stole maize while the owners were busy attending a funeral.
Group Village Headman Mengwe warned that if government does not do anything they would take law into their own hands because they were tired with the rotten behaviour of the Ethiopians.
The Ethiopians are said to be fighting indigenous Malawians, raping girls and old women and stealing from the surrounding villages, among others.
“We want government to take action urgently because we have been patient enough with these foreigners and the situation is now getting out of hand.
“People are living in fear in their own country because the Ethiopians are not only invading the villages during the day but also night, a situation that poses danger to their lives and property. If government is not assisting us we have the means to deal with the situation ourselves,” said the angry village, whose area is well known for gule wankulu cult.
There are currently over 8000 asylum seekers at Dzaleka camp from various countries like Somalia, Burundi, DRC, Rwanda, Djibouti but the Ethiopians are said to be the most nuisance.
EDITOR’S NOTE: This is indeed the darkest period in Ethiopia’s history where Ethiopians are humiliated inside their own country and around the world.
Dessie, Ethiopia (BBC) — Ethiopian Woyanne police have shot and killed two people who were helping to build a Christian church at a site which is also claimed by Muslims, officials say.
Violence broke out when police tried to stop the construction in Dessie, 250km (155 miles) north-east of Addis Ababa.
The police say they were responding to an attack on them by the Christians, but campaign groups say the police ambushed the workers.
The population of Dessie is about two-thirds Christian, one-third Muslim.
Information Minister Woyanne propaganda chief Bereket Simon told reporters that the Christians had “stormed the place” and tried to continue building the church “unlawfully”.
“Unfortunately three lives have been claimed. Two of them were killed by bullets, one of them fell off a cliff,” he said.
Several other people were also hurt in the violence.
Oslo, Norway – The world’s greatest women’s distance runners Tirunesh Dibaba and Meseret Defar, the ‘Duelling D’s’ of Ethiopia will clash over 5000m at the ExxonMobil Bislett Games in Oslo, Norway, on Friday 3 July, the second leg of the six meeting ÅF Golden League.
WASHINGTON (CNN) — A woman saluted as a CNN Hero was among a group of creative philanthropists honored Tuesday by President Obama.
Dessie, Ethiopia (