WASHINGTON (AFP) — As millions of Americans gear to vote in the thrilling 2008 White House race, experts are warning that the expected huge turnout could strain the voting system, triggering an electoral meltdown.
With just over two weeks to go until election day on November 4, they don’t even have to go too far back in history to find some glaring examples.
The 2000 presidential elections swung on a few hundred votes in Florida and the winner — George W. Bush — was eventually decided in the Supreme Court.
Four years later a tight race in Ohio, where at least one overwhelmed polling station did not close until 4:00 am, plunged the battle into temporary chaos.
“Our elections are simply too important to risk another meltdown that further shakes the confidence of the American public in our democratic system,” election watchdogs warned in a joint report Friday.
A state-by-state breakdown in the report entitled “Is America Ready to Vote?” found that in at least 10 states, some of them key battlegrounds which could decide the outcome, the answer may be no.
Colorado, Delaware, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Jersey, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Virginia all rated inadequate or needs improvement in three out of four categories examining how prepared they are for a crisis.
Problems could arise if voting machines break down, if there are not enough machines to deal with huge queues, or if polling officials are quite simply overloaded with not enough emergency paper ballots as back-up.
So worried are non-partisan groups like the Women’s League of Voters and Rock the Vote that they are encouraging people to vote early or by absentee ballot to avoid the queues, and readying legal teams and millions of volunteers on the ground to provide advice and practical help.
“Any time you are thinking of such a large turnout the first concern that comes to your mind is, ‘oh my goodness the polls are going to be a little crowded on election day,'” said Mary Wilson, president of the League of Women Voters.
Having met officials in battleground and swing states, she told reporters that some places are projecting turnouts of around 80 to 85 percent.
If that is reflected nationally that would smash all records in a country with low voter participation of between 54 to 61 percent.
With Democrat Barack Obama bidding to be the first African-American president, and Republican rival John McCain running with the party’s first woman VP pick Sarah Palin, voters are rushing to be part of history.
“We think the potential to have problems in any state is possible, things can go wrong in any state,” said Mary Boyle, from Common Cause, one of the co-sponsors of the report.
Florida, a traditional Republican stronghold which has become a battleground this year, could emerge again as a problem, she said highlighting efforts to remove voters off the voting lists.
Confusing rules in Indiana about the need to present identity papers may see people wrongly turned away, and rural, traditionally conservative Virginia, also a battleground state for the first time in four decades, could pose a headache.
“They have registered a huge number of people and it’s another state we keeping our eyes on,” Boyle said.
She also slammed voter suppression tactics such as flyers going around in some places falsely saying “Republicans are voting Tuesday, Democrats should go to the polls on Wednesday.”
“Believe it or not that kind of stuff still happens,” she said.
Young people are also being bombarded with misleading information, agreed Heather Smith, executive director of Rock the Vote, which aims to boost youth participation and this year has registered some 2.5 million new voters.
Some students have been wrongly told that they could be arrested for unpaid parking tickets if they turn up to vote, while others in Virginia where told they could jeopardize their tax status if they register to vote at their colleges.
Rock the Vote is particularly worried about what will happen in this year’s key states Ohio, Colorado, Florida and Virginia.
“These are close states where new voters can make of break the election, and there’s a lot of young people who are very engaged and are prepared to go out and vote,” said Smith.
“And you can see a vote is critical if people are either trying to turn them out or supress them and we are seeing both in particular in these huge college towns.”
In Georgia, Florida and many other states, voting has already started. So those of you who can vote, don’t wait until Nov. 4 and get stuck in long lines. Go out and cast your vote today. The following is a story by Sun-Sentinel.com about voting in Florida.
Early voters braving long lines in Broward and Palm Beach counties of Florida
By Rafael A. Olmeda, Scott Wyman and Mark Hollis
SunSentinel.com
David Hare thought he’d get a jump on Election Day by taking advantage of early voting this morning. He got on line outside the Art Serve library on Sunrise Boulevard in Fort Lauderdale at 10:30 a.m.
Nearly three hours later, he was still waiting.
Early voting began today, with both presidential campaigns making big pushes to encourage people to vote in advance of the Nov. 4 election. If that was the plan, said Hare, it might have worked too well.
“One poll worker came out and told us they had no idea there would be this many voters,” said Hare, who identified himself as a “mega yacht captain” eager to cast his presidential vote for Democrat Barack Obama. “There’s still 100 people in front of me,” all waiting for a turn at one of six booths set up, Hare said. He finally cast his ballot at 3:40 p.m.
There were long lines at many of the 17 early voting locations across Broward County. At the African American Research Library and Cultural Center near Fort Lauderdale, more than 200 people were on line when the polls opened at 10 a.m.
“I wanted to get it over with and avoid the long lines,” said Adolph Hill, of Fort Lauderdale, who figured lines will be longer on Nov. 4 than they are today.
There are 11 early voting sites in Palm Beach County. Few problems were reported early, on and lines stayed steady through lunch.
Officials say they are prepared to handle a large number of voters.
“We expected a large turnout,” said Robert Weiner, with the Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections Office. “We’re prepared and are looking forward to it.”
More than 400,000 residents in the two counties are expected to vote in the next two weeks either by absentee ballot or at the early voting locations.
Campaign advisers and election administrators encourage early voting because of the high turnout expected this year. They predict 70 percent to 80 percent of the 1.8 million registered voters in the two counties will cast ballots, a turnout not seen since the early 1990s.
“Bad economic times tend to increase voter turnout,” said Kevin Hill, a political science professor at Florida International University. “This is a wide-open race with no incumbent, and that also increases interest and turnout.”
In an addition choosing a president, voters will be electing members of Congress, the state Legislature and local offices. There also are local and state issues, including a question to change the Florida Constitution to ban gay marriage.
Registered voters can vote early at any polling location in their county, unlike Election Day, when people must vote at their designated precincts.
Voters can request absentee ballots through Oct. 29.
Because of its convenience, voters increasingly have turned to early voting since it started as an experiment in 2002. But election officials warn there will be lines, particularly the weekend before Election Day. Lines are expected to be even longer on Nov. 4, when 1 million people are expected to vote in Broward and Palm Beach counties.
Election officials said people can ensure voting at the early voting sites goes fast if they fill out a sample ballot beforehand and resolve any questions about registration in advance, such as updating their address. Voters also must remember to bring photo identification that has their signature.
Local campaigns for both John McCain and Obama, as well as both major political parties, are promoting early voting. Phone calls, fliers and e-mail are going out with reminders, and plans are under way for early vote rallies and marches to the polls.
“We really do want people to early vote,” said David Sullivan, voter protection director for Obama’s Florida campaign. “It will help them avoid longer lines. And, secondly, they’ll be helping their neighbors by allowing those people to get in and vote with shorter lines on Election Day.”
Chip LaMarca, chairman of Broward County’s Republican Party, said the party has a similar strategy. “It’s a lot easier to vote early considering the length of the ballot and the number of people who will be voting,” he said.
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Staff writer Brian Haas contributed to this report.
Scott Wyman can be reached at [email protected]
The presidential campaign’s homestretch is looking a lot more like President Bill Clinton’s 1996 solid reelection over Republican nominee Bob Dole than like Ronald Reagan’s late-breaking 1980 landslide over incumbent Democratic President Jimmy Carter. Democratic standard-bearer Barack Obama appears headed toward victory over John McCain.
But a campaign’s closing couple of weeks can be unexpectedly treacherous. Just ask John F. Kerry and Al Gore.
In 2000, Vice President Gore’s popularity had begun to dip after the Democratic National Convention, when his populist people-vs.-the-powerful theme came off to much of the electorate as a call for higher taxes. During the last three weeks of the campaign, he lost late-breaking voters almost 2-to-1.
Four years later, during the presidential campaign’s closing weeks, Kerry got hit by the famous Swift boat attacks. Meanwhile, his demeanor turned rather dark, and he spewed negative sound bites against President Bush, while the Republican incumbent appeared more confident and optimistic in the face of global security concerns. Kerry got beaten up as elitist, out of touch and weak on national security.
Even the closing weeks of a winning Democratic presidential campaign can be challenging. In 1996, the Chinese money scandal broke during the campaign’s final days; Clinton won, anyway, but the scandal sliced several points off his margin of victory.
This year, Democrats have considerably more reason for optimism about closing strong. Obama has skillfully fended off personal attacks, while John McCain’s campaign has engaged in the questionable tactics of linking his opponent with 1960s-era radical William Ayers and alleged voter registration irregularities by ACORN, the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now. Those issues do not connect to the central questions: Who is ready to be commander in chief, and who can best lead the country out of economic meltdown?
Republican attacks appear to be premised on questioning Obama’s experience and labeling him a tax-and-spend liberal. But voter perceptions of Obama as calm, measured and knowledgeable amid the economic crisis seem to be overcoming the experience argument, while his retort about cutting taxes for 95 percent of Americans has proved effective.
McCain, meanwhile, must counter tens of millions of dollars of Obama advertisements that tie the Republican nominee to Bush (McCain has voted with the administration 90 percent of the time) and must contend that his policy proposals would benefit Big Business at the expense of hardworking Americans. McCain does not appear to have the money to respond to those attacks, which are seeping into voters’ minds.
Obama need only keep this election on track — hold big rallies in key states; roll out any remaining endorsements, such as Colin Powell’s; flood the airwaves with ads; and mobilize young people to show up at the polls. He is winning because, in addition to a strong base of young voters, he is doing well among Catholics, working-class voters and seniors — groups that McCain needed to overcome Obama’s youth support. McCain has failed to make his long years of service relevant to the problems the country is facing today. Active grannies, who backed Hillary Rodham Clinton in the primaries and might have been logical McCain supporters, are now with Obama, a helpful trend in Florida and Pennsylvania.
So what could change the race that Obama must guard against?
Offhand comments: As we’ve seen throughout the campaign, cable television and other news outlets can blow out of proportion four or five words that move voters and quickly change the campaign’s contours. Obama’s “spread the wealth” comment in Ohio has stoked Republican attacks on him as a tax-and-spend liberal. He must be more on guard than usual to avoid such casual rope line comments, which can be recorded by any number of cell phones.
Game-changing ads: Hillary Clinton’s primary season “3 a.m.” ad was successful in changing the discussion before the Texas primary, and in the general election McCain created something of a stir with his Paris Hilton spot. But given the worsening economic crisis, it is now pretty hard to change the conversation.
Personal charges: Recent late-campaign surprises have included revelations about Bill Clinton’s 1996 fundraising and George W. Bush’s 1976 drunken driving arrest in Maine. You can never fully prepare for this kind of thing, other than to label it a last-minute, desperate attempt by the opposition to change the conversation.
External events: Another eruption between Russia and one of its former republics could exacerbate voter concerns about Obama over national security. Still, Obama appears the most ready, while McCain does not seem up to the challenges of the fast-paced modern world.
Overall, Obama seems on track for victory, having masterfully avoided post-convention pitfalls. It looks like he’s in for a smooth homestretch — but, of course, it seemed that way in previous Democratic campaigns, as well.
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Mark J. Penn served as chief adviser to President Bill Clinton in the 1996 presidential election and to Hillary Rodham Clinton during her Senate and presidential races. He is the author of “Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow’s Big Changes” (Twelve, 2007).
Leon County Court, Seat 5
Nina Ashenafi Richardson, a native of Ethiopia, has the edge over challenger Sean Desmond in this nonpartisan judicial contest primarily because of her extensive volunteer and pro bono track record. Besides having been staff legal counsel for the Florida Education Association since 1991, the 44-year-old attorney has served for five years on the Legal Aid Foundation board, for example, and on the steering committee of Whole Child Leon. It’s important for the judges in the “people’s court” to be familiar, as she is, with the challenges facing citizens in everything from small claims and landlord-tenant disputes to minor criminal offenses.
Amendment 1: Repeal of alien land law. This eliminates antiquated language authorizing the Legislature to prohibit “ineligible aliens” from owning property. Florida, to its credit, never used this anti-Asian, anti-immigrant authority, but such outdated, discriminatory language should be out of our constitution. Vote Yes.
Amendment 2: Gay marriage ban. Initiated by a citizens’ group, Florida4Marriage.org, the amendment would ban gay marriage and all civil unions. It also puts at risk health insurance and other benefits extended to domestic partnerships regardless of the age, gender or sexual orientation of the parties. Florida statutes already prohibit same-sex marriage — language echoed in this amendment. The federal Defense of Marriage Act also protects states from having to recognize gay marriages contracted elsewhere. Amendment 2 is a duplicative, unnecessary means of privately objecting to cultural change and nontraditional families. Vote No.
Amendment 3: Hurricane and energy tax break
Homeowners, including those who own rentals, second homes or vacation homes, would get a small tax break for making storm-hardening improvements or for renewable energy systems such as solar. Under this amendment, the improvements couldn’t affect the assessed value for purposes of property taxes. Homeowners might also save on better insurance premiums and lower utility bills. Vote Yes.
Amendment 4: Conservation land tax break
This tax break creates a complete property-tax exemption for conservation easements when a private landowner agrees to permanently set aside and not develop land. It also allows lawmakers to create a new tax-break class for landowner-managed “conservation” property that is similar to the “greenbelt” exemption for agricultural land. It should help sustain agriculture in Florida by providing an alternative to “selling to development” at the same time preserving wilderness areas that are essential to the well-being of the state’s natural resources. Vote Yes.
Amendment 6: Working waterfront tax break
In our Gulf Coast region, this could be a blessing, providing a tax break for struggling marinas, boat yards, commercial fishing facilities and waterfront fish houses or restaurants. It would ensure that property is assessed according to its current use instead of by its “potential” use. Mom-and-pop owners of waterfront businesses wouldn’t feel pressured to sell to keep up with “highest and best use” tax bills, and some of Florida’s old charm, beloved by residents and appealing to tourists, could be retained. Vote Yes.
Amendment 8: A new sales tax for community colleges
This allows a tax increase rather than tax breaks. It would give a county the option of increasing its sales tax to support community colleges, but with a five-year expiration date. If a college served more than one county, all of the counties would have to agree to the same tax increase, and the state already limits local-option taxes to 1.5 percent total, so counties that are already at that limit couldn’t chip in.
Community colleges do serve an important work-force function — extra important during times of economic distress — but financing public education is one of the state Legislature’s fundamental responsibilities. It ought not shove another burden back to counties. Vote No.
Circuit Court Judge, Group 7
Frank Sheffield brings long experience and daily familiarity from his 37 years of handling every type of legal case, civil and criminal, in the circuit. In this nonpartisan race against Lisa Raleigh, he has the edge because of his participation in hundreds of trials and his ability to hit the ground running given the retirement of three longtime judges and the overcrowded docket that a new judge will have to wrangle with immediately and effectively.
State House District 9
Republican Peter Boulware has the advantage of ready access to leadership in the Republican-dominated House over Democrat Michelle Rehwinkel Vasilinda. A businessman with high name recognition statewide from his years in professional football, he stands the better chance of bringing attention to this district, its state employees and universities whose concerns increasingly have played second fiddle to those of South and Central Florida.
Leon County Commission at-large
In this nonpartisan race, architect Akin Akinyemi is quite simply a more credible candidate than incumbent Ed DePuy, a lobbyist whose term on the board has been marked by questionable judgments and behavior that outweigh his familiarity with the issues. His angry public outbursts, reluctance to acknowledge even possible conflicts of interest in voting in two instances and questions surrounding a sexual harassment complaint by a local-government employee have damaged his reputation as a once-moderating influence on the board.
U.S. Congress District 2
Democrat Allen Boyd, the incumbent, simply has the experience over Mark Mulligan, a Panama City Republican with an academic background, in dealing with complex fiscal and monetary issues that are now overshadowing virtually every other issue in Congress. Boyd has a long record as a conservative “Blue Dog” Democrat and steady hand who is in sync with this large and largely rural North Florida district.
State House District 8
Democrat Alan Williams, with his extensive record of community leadership and involvement, is the superior choice over Robert Maddox, a no party candidate from Quincy who has run an almost invisible race for this seat. District 8’s representative is so important as an advocate for not only the public employees and universities of Leon County but also the low-income residents of Gadsden County. Mr. Williams is known as both a “worker bee” and generous leader who can build consensus.
State House District 10
Democrat Leonard Bembry simply brings a deeper and more far-reaching sense of the people in this 10-county district than Republican Don Curtis, a forester and former manager at Procter & Gamble, Buckeye Cellulose. Bembry, from a fourth-generation farming family in the district, built and runs University Homes in Tallahassee and has experience in insurance, real estate, housing, agriculture, business management and the business of meeting a payroll that should serve this district well.
State Senate, District 3
Republican Charlie Dean, the incumbent, has a background in the House that has given him a familiarity with state issues so critical to Florida. He has demonstrated independence from party lines when necessary to work effectively for the state employees and universities. His challenger, Democrat Suzan Franks of Citrus County, served in the New Hampshire Legislature for eight years and brings a lively public spiritedness to the campaign. But we see no reason to unseat an incumbent who has shown himself to be effective and hardworking for the citizens of this diverse district.
