Recently retired Physicist Bernice Durand is using a career’s worth of contacts and organizational skills to build an unusual national grass-roots effort, focused on scientific issues, for Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential candidate.
Since September, Durand has worked with more than three dozen scientists who have placed articles or letters in 50-plus newspapers in 20 states, most of them considered still up for grabs. The scientists have also appeared on a handful of radio shows and been interviewed by reporters covering the campaign.
Political analysts say Obama has captured the lion’s share of visible support among scientists. “It’s an enthusiasm chasm,” says Michael Stebbins, president of the Scientists and Engineers for America (SEA) Action Fund, which set up a channel on YouTube for scientists of both political persuasions to explain their choice. As of press time, 22 videos have been posted–all by Obama supporters. “It’s been frustrating. We want scientists to come out and say why they’re voting for McCain,” says Stebbins.
Campaign donation records indicate that some scientists are supporting McCain. One donor, mathematician Nakhle Asmar of the University of Missouri, Columbia, says “national security” was the reason he gave McCain $2300, the maximum allowed from an individual for the general election. Has he done anything more for the candidate? “I don’t have time,” he says, adding that he believes “both [candidates] will be good for education and science.”
Some who have volunteered for Obama say they would have preferred to remain nonpartisan but that the stakes are too high. Daniel Holz, a physicist at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico worries that such activism could “compromise the scientific enterprise” by politicizing it. But the bigger problem, he says, is that “the scientific enterprise has already been compromised and politicized by Republicans.” White House science adviser John Marburger says he opposes “scientists using science to support their partisan views.”
The problem, he says, is that they could “lose credibility with the public.”
As the yellow bars in the graph below indicate, when pollsters include cellphone numbers in their canvassing, Democrat Barack Obama’s lead widens. Obama’s lead expands even more during the weekend, when, perhaps due to free weekend minutes, cellphone users are more likely to answer. When pollsters call only landlines — see the gray bars — a higher percentage of respondents favor John McCain.
The cellphone polls have Obama ahead by an average of 9.4 points; the landline-only polls, 5.1 points. I did a radio hit the other afternoon with Mark DeCamillo of California’s vaunted Field Poll, which does include cellphones in their samples. He suggested to me that it was much easier to get the cooperation of cellphone users on the weekend than during the week. How come? Because most cellphone plans include free weekend minutes. Conversely, one might expect that young people are particularly difficult to reach on their landlines over the weekend, since they tend to be away from home more (especially on a weekend when some nontrivial number of them are out volunteering for Obama). So, while I haven’t tried to verify this, it wouldn’t surprise me if the “cellphone gap” expands over the weekend, and contracts during the week.
WASHINGTON (AFP) — For John McCain to confound the pundits and upset favorite Barack Obama in Tuesday’s election, he must navigate a perilous path on which a single slip could hand his rival the White House.
McCain is battling to hold onto many of the key states which pushed Republican President George W. Bush to reelection in 2004 — and in some scenarios the loss of just one major battleground could mean a president Obama.
By contrast, the Democratic nominee clearly has a much simpler task — hold onto the states won by his 2004 counterpart John Kerry and add a big state or several smaller ones to get him to the winning post of 270 electoral votes.
Facing almost universally bad news in opinion polls, McCain’s campaign hopes for an upset that would rank as one of the most dramatic eleventh-hour turnarounds in American political history.
Such an outcome would cast deep doubts over the methodology of pollsters and expose much of the US journalistic establishment to ridicule.
Obama led the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal survey by eight points, the Rasmussen daily tracking poll by six points and the USA Today/Gallup survey by 11 points.
He led poll averages by independent website RealClearPolitics in all the battlegrounds save North Carolina, now a tie and held narrow leads in Indiana and Missouri — which are normally Republican territory.
Under the US system, the president is chosen on the base of electoral votes allocated to each state. Large states get the most votes — California for instance has 55 while those with small populations get as few as a handful.
In most cases, the winner of the popular vote in each state gets all the electoral votes.
An electoral map put together on the basis of poll averages by the site on Monday had Obama leading by 278 electoral votes to 132, with 128 still unallocated in toss-up states.
Obama’s campaign set out to give their candidate multiple routes to the White House on the US political map.
“Our number one strategic goal was to have a big playing field,” said Obama campaign manager David Plouffe on Fox News Sunday.
“We did not want to wake up on the morning of November 4th waiting for one state. We wanted a lot of different ways to win this election.”
Obama already leads the polls in Kerry states, so he needs just one big state, or a combination of smaller states to get him over the top.
Simply winning the Kerry states and Ohio’s 20 electoral votes would get the job done, and give Obama 272 electoral votes.
The Kerry states plus Florida (27 electoral votes) which Democrats narrowly lost in 2000 and 2004 would also do the trick.
The Democratic nominee could also chose a more westerly strategy, picking up the Bush state of Iowa (seven electoral votes) where he is heavily favored and Colorado (nine electoral votes) plus one other of New Mexico (five electoral votes) and Nevada (five electoral votes).
Obama is also leading the polls in normally Republican Virginia, is heavily pressing McCain in North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri, so he has many possible paths to victory.
McCain however is in a much more difficult position.
Given that it is unlikely the Republican will be able to defend all the Bush states in 2004, according to polls in a tough Republican year, he needs to flip at least one big Democratic state — likely his only realistic option is Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes).
The Republican nominee however faces a tough fight to hang on to Virginia, Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico — all of which went to Bush in 2004.
The loss of one of those big states to Obama — Florida or Ohio for instance, could spell doom for McCain.
The loss of Virginia, and one other smaller state from the Bush map, like Colorado for instance, could also mean an Obama presidency.
McCain hopes Obama’s final totals do not reflect his strength in national and swing state polling, and his campaign argues the race has trended clearly towards him in battleground states in recent days.
Some analysts also think that Obama’s race may mean he underpolls opinion surveys as some people may not want to tell pollsters they are not willing to vote for an African-American.
Theoretically, Obama could still rack up huge totals in national polls by maximizing support in Democratic states like California and New York, and still face a tough fight against McCain for electoral votes in the battlegrounds.
But it seems statistically highly unlikely he could win the popular vote millions but still lose the electoral college.
NEW YORK (AFP) — An army of journalists from around the world is descending on the United States to cover Election Day, November 4, in a reflection of unprecedented worldwide interest in the American presidential election.
“Our audience’s interest in the US presidential election this time is definitely much higher than the last time four years ago,” said Keiko Matsuyama, who is coordinating an 11-member team for Japan’s TV Asahi’s US vote coverage.
“Our viewers — as well as we reporters — are interested in the rise of the first African-American US president. Also, interest is mounting about US policies to address the financial crisis,” she said.
TV Asahi, one of Japan’s private broadcasters, said it will begin live coverage of the results from 10:30 am Japan time (0130 GMT) on November 5.
Democrat Barack Obama’s campaign has accredited 1,500 journalists for an Election Night event at campaign headquarters in Chicago, home base of the 47-year-old Illinois senator seeking to become America’s first black president.
“There has been a huge interest in Africa,” said Constance Ikokwu, Washington correspondent from the leading newspaper This Day, in Nigeria.
“There is an emotional attachment between Africans and Senator Obama,” she said.
Due to media fascination with the most prominent African-American candidate to date, as well as polls that show Obama leading his Republican rival John McCain, more journalists have chosen to base themselves in Chicago than in Phoenix, Arizona, where McCain serves as senator.
“I don’t think we have ever seen media interest in a US presidential election this high,” said Keith Peterson, Media Relations Officer at the State Department’s Washington Foreign Press Center.
“The numbers of reporters have been astonishing, especially those coming in for the last couple of weeks.”
Some reporting teams are making the rounds of the United States to try and capture everyday realities in the country.
The daily Clarin newspaper out of Buenos Aires has sent reporters along the legendary Route 66, which cuts across the country, to “meet people, go inside towns and post Internet photos, videos and blogs” about their experiences, said chief international editor Marcelo Cantelmi.
For French channels Canal Plus and I-Tele, anchor Michel Denisot will toss to a team of special correspondents in Chicago, Phoenix and New York.
In all, 50 team members will combine to broadcast eight hours of continuous coverage on a special show called “American Night.”
US veteran broadcaster Dan Rather will comment exclusively for European audiences on voting day.
“There is enormous curiosity about Barack Obama, who has become something of a phenomenon in French society,” said Laurence Haim, the chief New York editor of Canal Plus.
“People want to see if someone who is an outsider and is black is going to win the US presidential election,” Haim said.
However, she lamented the “extremely difficult access for foreign media.”
In India, the US presidential debates were broadcast live on major channels.
“We are very interested in what happens in the elections for obvious reasons — the implications for Asia, India in particular, and the economic crisis,” said Amit Baruah, foreign editor of the English daily the Hindustan Times, which has sent extra staff to cover the event.
Al-Jazeera said it was sending 12 extra journalists to key locations in the United States, such as swing states Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Illinois.
“The interest in the region is tremendous, as we have already found out through several months of coverage,” said Abderrahim Foukara, Washington bureau chief at Al-Jazeera.
“That is so for at least two reasons: US involvement in the (Middle East) region and Barack Obama being the first African American presidential candidate with a real chance of becoming president of the United States.”
Leading broadcasters from three Israeli stations also plan to cover the election live from the United States.
NAIROBI (Reuters) – Sixty corpses of would-be refugees from Ethiopia and Somalia were found on a beach in Yemen over the weekend after smugglers forced many of them overboard, an international aid agency said on Monday.
Medicins Sans Frontieres (MSF) said the latest victims on the notoriously perilous smuggling route had came across the Gulf of Aden from the Somali port city of Bosasso, fleeing war and poverty at home.
In one of two incidents that caused the deaths, smugglers tipped the refugees into the sea at night after noticing lights on land and fearing they would be spotted by the coastguard, MSF quoted survivors as saying.
“They forced us into the sea, even if the water was too deep. Several people did not know how to swim and they drowned,” one survivor said. An eight-months pregnant woman was injured by the boat’s propeller after being forced overboard, survivors said.
In a second incident, MSF workers discovered a group who had made it to shore after their boat capsized. They said they had buried 23 fellow passengers.
“The boat was stuck almost upside down in the sand, not far from the beach. The fishermen were trying to find survivors underneath but they could not,” said an MSF worker, Said.
“So I had to dive under. I managed to get in the hull and with God’s help, we got two women and a man out safe.”
According to the U.N. refugee agency UNHCR, about 32,000 people got safely to Yemen from Somalia between the start of the year and October. At least 230 people had died, and 365 were missing, the agency said last month.
“A lot of attention has been paid lately to tackling the issue of piracy in the waters off the Horn of Africa,” said MSF’s Yemen boss, Francis Coteur.
“Unfortunately, little attention is paid to the drama of the refugees crossing the same waters in horrific conditions. Much more needs to be done to address this issue.”
Conflict in Somalia, drought, and food price rises, have worsened hardships across the Horn of Africa, already one of the world’s poorest regions, this year.
Sixty three out of a total 199 incidents of piracy worldwide between January and September this year were in the Gulf of Aden and off the Somali coast, according to the International Maritime Bureau.
Nijmegen, The Netherlands – Kenenisa Bekele, already the master of the three competition surfaces of indoor and outdoor track and cross country, will make what he describes as his ‘first serious step’ on the road when he tackles the Zevenheuvelenloop (Sevenhills Run) over 15 kilometres on Sunday 16 November.
Reigning double Olympic and three-time World 10,000m champion Kenenisa Bekele of Ethiopia, who in Beijing became only the sixth man in history to win Olympic 5000m and 10,000 titles at the same games, has made a few casual outings on the road over 10km (28:50 PB; 2003) in the past but has yet to inflict his full powers on the road racing scene.
The Sevenhills Run, which is an IAAF Silver Label Road Race, takes place over a hilly course in the eastern part of the Netherlands from Nijmegen to Groesbeek and back again.
Celebrating its 25th anniversary this year, the Zevenheuvelenloop is one of the biggest road races in the Netherlands, and the organisers are expecting 31,000 runners this year.
“After I have proved myself on the track and the cross I will now take a first serious step on the road,” confirmed Bekele. “I look forward to this race on the proven fast course.”
And a fast course it certainly is given that Nijmegen played host to the current World record run of 41:29 by Kenyan Felix Limo in 2001. On that occasion, Bekele’s mentor Haile Gebrselassie, the current World record holder in the Marathon was second (41:38), and since then the event has become a regular and successful haunt for much of the Ethiopian distance running hierarchy.
Significantly, Gebrselassie was to return in 2005 and take victory (41:57), inheriting a title which another Ethiopian, multiple global championship medallist Sileshi Sihine had won in 2004 (41:38).
Last year Sihine also returned to Nijmegen to take another success (42:24), one half of a double celebration for Ethiopia, as Bizunesh Bekele (47:36) surprisingly beat multiple World record holder and World champion Lornah Kiplagat of the Netherlands by a second to take the women’s title.
Given the Nijmegen course’s reputation and Kenenisa Bekele’s talent there must be a strong possibility that the World record will be threatened this year, and Bekele’s manager Jos Hermens has confirmed that his charge is both rested and focussing specifically on the race.
“After the gold medals at the Beijing Olympics Kenenisa has taken some rest. He did train after that period of relative rest very hard for the Zevenheuvelenloop. The Sevenhills run has a very good name.”
2004 Olympic marathon champion Stefano Baldini of Italy will also run this year’s Zevenheuvelenloop.
Reigning double Olympic and three-time World 10,000m champion Kenenisa Bekele of Ethiopia, who in Beijing became only the sixth man in history to win Olympic 5000m and 10,000 titles at the same games, has made a few casual outings on the road over 10km (28:50 PB; 2003) in the past but has yet to inflict his full powers on the road racing scene.