WASHINGTON (AFP) — African-Americans voiced nervous elation and hope Tuesday at the prospect that the country might be poised to elect its first black president.
“I never thought I would live long enough to see that,” Alnett Wooten, 86, said of Democrat Barack Obama’s ground-breaking race to win the White House, as she went to vote in downtown Washington.
“But as I always say, God is good. He knows, and I just pray that He will keep him safe.”
“I couldn’t sleep,” said Alice Hayes after she cast her vote for Obama over Republican rival John McCain in Washington’s Chevy Chase district.
The hospital official said just eight years ago she could not have imagined a black American even in the running for president, much less becoming the favorite in the race.
“I hope to see a change in this country,” she said, echoing Obama’s campaign theme.
In Miami Beach, Florida, Miykel Stinson, 27, said the memory of her grandfather being beaten to death in Louisiana during the Civil Rights movement of the 1960s was on her mind as she cast her ballot.
“It means a lot to me,” she said of the election.
Illinois Senator Obama, born in 1961 in the middle of the tense and often violent US civil rights battle, has already made history as the first black to be chosen by one of the two major US parties as its presidential nominee.
As voting opened on Tuesday morning, most opinion polls gave him a strong advantage over McCain to win the election.
Reports from around the country suggested that blacks were turning out in never-before seen numbers for the election — which is a key part of the Democrats’ strategy to defeat McCain.
Four minutes after the polls opened in Decatur, Georgia, African-American security guard James Lee joined the quiet line of voters at Avondale Middle School to cast his vote for Obama.
“With the Bush election, it seemed like black people’s votes were thrown away. That took me out of it,” he said.
“When I heard about Obama, it inspired me. He wants to change the country, take it in a new direction, and he thinks of everybody.”
Sheron Regular, a black singer and poet in her late 50s, was enjoying the free election day coffee at a Starbucks on Malcolm X Boulevard in Harlem, New York City.
“I vote for Obama because it’s in my interest,” she said, adding she was “sure he will win.”
“This is a historical day, America finally opened it’s mind,” added Harlem drummer Ramon Quinones, 43. “I am a proud Democrat, I vote for Obama.
In Washington, government employee Jacqueline Lawson was nervous with excitement after she marked her ballot.
“I’m just elated, happy that the day has finally come. I feel so a part of this election like never before,” Lawson said.
But at a voting station in Washington DC’s Maryland suburbs, 48-year-old accountant Denise Randolph was holding her breath.
“I think it’s still up for a grabs,” she said. “This is the largest (turnout) I have ever seen in 10 years.
“I view it as a good thing and it’s about time. That means people are interested and they should be.”
What if the polls, for various reasons, are overstating Obama’s support by a couple points? And what if the late deciders break overwhelmingly against Obama, as they did in the Democratic primaries? McCain could then thread the Electoral College needle.
McCain would have to win every state where he now leads or is effectively even in the polls (including North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri). He’d have to take Florida and Ohio, where he’s about four points down but where operatives on the ground give him a pretty good shot. That gets him to 247 of the 270 votes needed.
McCain’s path to victory is then to snatch Pennsylvania (which gets him to 268), and win either Virginia, Colorado, Nevada or New Mexico (states where he trails by about four to seven points) — or New Hampshire, where he’s 10 points behind but twice won dramatic primary victories.
As for Pennsylvania, two recent polls have McCain closing to within four points. Pennsylvania is the state whose small-town residents were famously patronized by Obama as “bitter.” One of Pennsylvania’s Democratic congressmen, John Murtha, recently accused many of his western Pennsylvania constituents of being racist. Perhaps Pennsylvanians will want to send a little message to the Democratic Party. And that could tip the election to McCain.
It’s an inside straight. But I’ve seen gamblers draw them.
Ed Morrissey notes that the last batch of battleground polls from Rasmussen now shows the race essentially tied in Ohio and Florida as well as North Carolina and Missouri, while McCain trails Obama by four points in Colorado and Virginia:
* Colorado – Obama leads 51/47, after last week’s 50/46. Within the MOE, but not much movement.
* Florida – McCain lead 50/49, after trailing 51/47 last week. Definitely moving towards McCain.
* Missouri – Dead heat at 49 all, after Obama led 48/47 last week. Movement to McCain.
* North Carolina – McCain 50/49, after being up 49/48 last week.
* Ohio – Tied at 49, after Obama led 49/45 last week. Movement to McCain.
* Virginia – Obama leads 51/47, same as last week.
An alternative path to victory for McCain without Pennsylvania is to win all of the states listed above plus Nevada. During the Democratic primaries, Hillary Clinton did 3 points better on election day than she did in the final Real Clear Politics averages of polls for Ohio and Pennsylvania. It’s possible that McCain might outperform the polls in Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada by four or five points.
And, of course, McCain would only need one of those three states if he pulls off an upset in Pennsylvania, where he’s currently trailing by 7.6 points according to RCP. But remember that Hillary Clinton was down by 8 points in New Hampshire before she eked out a dramatic 2 point win in the Democratic primary.
After an early rush on Tuesday, voting had slowed to a steady pace by mid-afternoon at most South Florida polling sites, with few glitches and no massive lines reported.
By EVAN S. BENN AND JENNIFER MOONEY PIEDRA Miami Herald
South Floridians are likely to turn out in droves Tuesday to choose a new president, and if lines at the polls are tolerable, they have early voters to thank.
About one of every four registered voters in Miami-Dade, Broward and statewide cast their ballots during the two-week early voting period that ended Sunday. That should help keep lines at a minimum despite an expected 80 percent turnout.
”I think that is going to help alleviate the lines,” said Marie Bertot, a Miami-Dade County spokeswoman.
Another help: Voters will be spread between 1,100 different polling places in Miami-Dade and Broward, making lines faster than at the 37 locations that hosted early voting.
Polls are expected to open at 7 a.m. and lines will be cut off at 7 p.m., but anyone in line by 7 p.m. will be allowed to vote. At many polling sites, people were already lined up by 6 a.m., waiting in lawn chairs and on blankets.
Aside from some sprinkles and early fog, the Election Day forecast is mostly sunny with temperatures in the low 80s and a light breeze.
It will be the state’s first big test of new optical-scan voting machines, which election officials promise will better serve voters than ATM-like touch-screens or butterfly ballots.
After all, it was Florida’s paper ballots and hanging chads in 2000 that left the country waiting 37 days for its next president-elect.
The state’s 27 electoral votes are again considered critical to the outcome of the too-close-to-call presidential race. Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain have spent significant time the past two weeks pushing for last-minute votes with their running mates in the Sunshine State.
South Florida voters also will decide Tuesday who will represent them in Congress, on the state’s Supreme Court and in municipal government. Broward voters will choose a sheriff, and there are several state constitutional and local charter amendments on the ballot.
All of those races and amendments make for a beefy ballot, so being prepared is the best way to avoid a longer poll experience than necessary.
”Voters need to take the responsibility of looking at their sample ballot, checking and seeing how they are going to vote and looking at the amendments,” said Evelyn Hale, a Broward elections spokeswoman. “Come prepared.”
Thanks to early voting, many won’t have to come at all.
About 2.6 million people in Florida voted early, about 23 percent of the state’s 11.2 million registered voters. Another 1.5 million Floridians voted absentee.
About 580,000 people cast early ballots in Miami-Dade and Broward, about 25 percent of all voters. Absentee votes raised the pre-Election Day turnout totals to close to 40 percent, election workers said.
”There will be lower demand on poll workers Tuesday,” Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections Lester Sola said.
The past two presidential elections have brought 73 percent and 74 percent turnout in Miami-Dade and similar turnouts in Broward.
If this election brings 80 percent turnout as expected, about one million people could be lining up to vote at one of the 1,100 polling places in Miami-Dade and Broward. It’s not necessary to bring a voter ID card, but a driver’s license or some form of photo identification with a signature helps the process go smoother.
Election supervisors said they hope to have absentee ballots tallied and posted on their websites by 7:15 p.m.; early voting totals should be posted by 7:30 p.m.; total votes will roll in sometime after that.
Said Miami-Dade election spokeswoman Christina White: “I think we’ll be looking good on Election Day.”
Miami Herald staff writer Charles Rabin contributed to this report.
GRAND JUNCTION, COLORADO (AP) _ Republican John McCain implored Colorado voters Tuesday to ignore the pundits and polls and help deliver the battleground state. “America is worth fighting for. Nothing is inevitable here,” the GOP nominee told his final rally of a marathon campaign.
Buoyed by internal polling that suggested the race here and in other Western states had pulled closer in recent days, the Arizona senator broke his Election Day tradition of going to the movies and instead flew to a raucous airport rally in Grand Junction. He was headed later to meet with volunteers in New Mexico before returning to Arizona to watch election returns.
In Colorado, the GOP presidential hopeful delivered an abbreviated version of his stump speech but did not mention Democratic rival Barack Obama. The Illinois senator made an Election Day campaign trip of his own to Indiana.
“I feel the momentum. I feel it, you feel it, and we’re going to win the election,” the former Navy pilot told several thousand supporters.
McCain was joined by his wife, Cindy, his 96-year-old mother, Roberta, and fellow Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut.
Earlier in the day in Phoenix, McCain showed Election Day optimism by flashing a thumbs-up sign after casting his ballot at a church near his home.
McCain stepped out of a sport-utility vehicle with his wife, Cindy, and son Jimmy as a small crowd cheered “Go, John, go!” and “We love you!” One person carried a sign that read, “Use your brain, vote McCain!” Jimmy McCain is a U.S. Marine who served in Iraq.
The McCains walked into the church, cast their ballots and left within minutes. The Arizona senator signed a poster and gave the thumbs-up sign before leaving without speaking to reporters.
Earlier in the morning, McCain could be seen on the patio of his high-rise condo, pacing with a cell phone in one hand and a large cup of coffee in the other.
“In a way I’m kind of sorry that it’s over because it’s been exciting,” McCain told ABC’s “Good Morning America” in an interview broadcast Tuesday. “I mean, it’s been one of the most incredible experiences that anybody can have.”
The 72-year-old Senate veteran vowed to fight for every vote even as national and state battleground polls found Democrat Barack Obama with a measurable headwind into Election Day.
A blizzard of late polls showed Obama leading in most competitive states, leaving McCain with only the narrowest possible path to victory Tuesday night.
“I think these battleground states have now closed up, almost all of them, and I believe there’s a good scenario where we can win,” McCain told CBS’ “The Early Show” hours before the polls opened. “Look, I know I’m still the underdog, I understand that.”
America is near the end of the longest democratic succession struggle in world history: 23 months ago the first candidate threw his hat in the ring. By comparison, Bill Clinton was considered an early entry when he announced in October 1991, just 13 months before the 1992 election.
Not only did this race get going earlier, it got going harder as well. Democrats had their first primary debate 22 months ago and their second a month later.
This will be America’s most costly presidential race. Barack Obama will spend north of $700m and John McCain more than $450m. Add the other candidates and third-party groups and the total expenditure will break $2.4 billion.
This may seem a lot but Americans annually spend $8 billion on haircare products, $64 billion on soft drinks and $577 billion on convenience store purchases, so $2.4 billion isn’t too much to pick the leader of the free world.
Neither party’s original front-runner survived. As late as January the polls still predicted a Clinton-Giuliani race. It was the luck of McCain and Obama that the early contests favoured them, with New Hampshire providing McCain with a decisive victory and Iowa giving Obama a spectacular launch.
Both nominees still won with a minority of the primary vote. Obama beat Hillary Clinton on votes and delegates through March, but received fewer votes and elected delegates between March and June. It was his early lead that allowed him to withstand her late charge. Ironically, Obama secured the nomination because of his support among “superdelegates”, the Democrats’ very own House of Lords.
Both tickets are improbable. McCain is barely tolerated by many in his party, having spent years irritating Republican congressional colleagues, exasperating party leaders and frustrating grassroots activists.
This experienced warhorse chose as his running mate Sarah Palin, the Alaska governor who can shoot a moose, field dress it, fillet it and fix it.
Democrats selected Obama, the first African-American to head a major party ticket. This freshman senator doesn’t have a single significant legislative accomplishment or record of bipartisan action since coming to Washington. This hasn’t stopped him from centring his campaign on a call for bi-partisanship and, heeding Martin Luther King’s invocation of “the fierce urgency of now”, a demand that leaders must confront America’s big challenges.
This candidate of change chose as his vice-president the sixth most senior senator, Joseph Biden, first elected when Obama was 11 years old. Biden has that mix of longevity and long-windedness that passes for wisdom in Washington.
The election has been dominated by two conflicting impulses. One is the desire for change that comes when one party has held the White House for eight years, strengthened by economic chaos and a lengthy war, which boosts Obama. On the other hand, there is persistent concern that he lacks the experience to be president. A March ABC/Washington Post poll found 45% of Americans felt Obama was unqualified. By October 29, 44% still felt that way. This is the worst unqualified rating since Michael Dukakis in 1988.
Both candidates know America remains a centre-right country. McCain has received his greatest traction from the success of the Iraq surge, which appeals to Americans’ desire for victory, and on taxes and spending, where he has contrasted his conservatism with Obama’s liberalism. Obama’s exchange with Joe the Plumber, an Ohio small businessman, helped McCain when Obama revealed that his tax increase was aimed at “spreading the wealth around”. Americans are instinctively against class warfare and redistribution; 73% of the top 1% whom Obama would tap for an estimated $131 billion in higher taxes each year are small businesses.
Because Obama recognises that America is a centre-right nation, he balances calls for withdrawal from Iraq with tough talk about stepping up US military efforts in Afghanistan, even threatening to invade Pakistan if that country fails to do enough to hunt down Al-Qaeda. He doesn’t emphasise his call for tax increases or income redistribution, but masks his policy as “a tax cut for 95% of Americans”. His adverts savage McCain’s health-care proposals as a tax increase and attack “government-run healthcare” as “extreme”. Obama has wisely used his financial advantage to press these points in “red states” to try to diminish the traditional Republican edge among evangelicals, military families, gun owners and small business owners.
What do the polls say about the race? There has been an explosion of them this year with 747 national head-to-head match-ups, 234 in October alone. By comparison, there were 235 national polls in all of 2004. But volume doesn’t produce clarity. On Thursday there were 10 national polls, with the margin from three points to 13 points. If the margin is three points, McCain has an uphill fight but can win. If it is 13 points, McCain’s task is essentially impossible. One thing has been consistent: his last national lead was on September 25 and he has trailed in all 251 polls since then.
If the margin between McCain and Obama is three points, there are more than enough undecided voters to swing the contest. Since 1948, undecideds have given an average of 38% to the challenger party, 34% to the White House party and 6% to third parties while 23% stayed at home. But this is not an average contest and no one really knows. Do undecideds want change or are they nagged by doubts that Obama is up to the job?
If McCain wins, he will almost surely face a Democratic Congress, which would mean divided government and compromise. If Obama wins, America will have one of the West’s most liberal governments – more liberal, in my view, than Britain, France, Germany, Italy and almost every other nation on the European continent, to say nothing of Canada. We will know in a few short hours.
(Karl Rove is the former deputy chief of staff to President George W Bush)
Obama memorabilia for sale on 125th st. in Harlem. (Reuters).
By Keith B. Richburg | Washington Post
NEW YORK — On the main commercial streets of Harlem, black America’s cultural capital, the vendors’ tables are stacked Barack Obama T-shirts and buttons. Some with his face. Some with his wife, Michelle. Some with Obama juxtaposed next to the image of Martin Luther King.
The vendors don’t seem to be doing much business; in Harlem, it seems, almost everyone is already sporting an Obama button or shirt.
There is a heady air of anticipation in Harlem. Metal risers have been set up for a huge outdoor celebration outside the federal building named for Harlem’s other political icon, the late congressman Adam Clayton Powell.
And many Harlemites, who lined up early to vote, say they believe this will be a day of divine reckoning.
“He was divinely sent,” said 66-year-old Wayne Tyree, who was wearing a dozen Obama buttons on his cap and another pinned to his lapel for good measure. He said Hurricane Ike, which disrupted the Republican convention, and the financial collapse were all part of a divine plan. “Everything fell for Obama,” he said.
Tyree added, “I’m 66 — I’ve been waiting for change all my life.”
“He’s another Martin Luther King,” said 75-year-old Mary Wallace, who got up early to vote when the polls opened. “God is good,” she added.
Henry Greene, 83, came to New York from North Carolina in 1946. “I can remember black people wasn’t allowed to vote,” he said, after casting his vote early for Obama. “Black people were just as good as white people, they’re just as smart as white. But they never had a chance to prove it.”
Greene said he never dreamed he’d see a black man as president, but added, “I’m just about to see it.”
Harlemites noted that another of their own, David Paterson, this year became New York’s first black governor. “Just like our governor now,” Greene said. “I never thought I’d see that either.”
There was also a small amount of apprehension. “I’m worried about Pennsylvania. And I’m worried about Florida,” said 86-year-old Millard Paul.
Paul was seated on a park bench, leaning on his cane, reflecting. “I’m just sitting here thinking about Obama being president and how it’s going to be,” he said.
