ADDIS ABABA (AFP) — Ethiopia will by 2010 see a four-fold increase in the number of orphaned children aged between nine and 19 who are heading families due to AIDS, poverty and conflict, a local NGO said on Friday.

Some 225,000 households will be run by children, up from 77,000 in 2005, Addis Ababa-based African Child Policy Forum (ACPF) said in a report.

“This is going to be an explosive problem,” said Assefa Bequele, the agency’s director.

“In some households, the oldest child is also the principal care-giver to a terminally-ill parent,” said the report.

Ethiopia is one of the world’s poorest countries. The government estimates that 1.5 million Ethiopians are infected with HIV, while the World Health Organization says nearly 2.8 million are infected.