By Ahmed osman
The pre-emptive doctrine, the notion that militarily powerful countries can topple regimes they do not like using their superior armies and then expect to be received by the citizens in the occupied territories as heroic liberators, is the height of folly. Yet, as has been observed before, if there is anything we learn from history, it is that we do not learn from history. The recent invasion of Ethiopia has created an atmosphere of hatred and civil war that has been halted by the Islamic Courts in the last six months. Consequently, the Western world, African countries and Arab League, including experts of Horn Africa and UN unanimously agree that Somalia badly needs a constructive dialogue between the TFG and all parties involved in Somalia’s conflict; in other words, the weak regime of warlord, Abdullah Yusuf who is flip-flopping should be pressed to form an inclusive government.
The recent American adventure in Somalia displays President George W Bush administration’s utter disregard for the precepts of international law and its bull-headed contention that the war on terror can be prosecuted as an entirely military affair. Any observer in Somalia will point out that the country has an extremely complex social and political structure, and solutions to the plight of its long suffering people demand equally complex solutions. It is worth noting that the latest impasse in the country derives directly from American actions and the dictator regime of Ethiopia that is governed by Meles Zenawi who is exporting his political crisis to another country. Meles has recently called the Cayeer Somali clan and aim at pitting Somali against each other so that Somali will never see the light of a strong government where he will be comfortable to rule Somali Region administered under his dictatorial regime.
Their ill-advised support for a group of warlords in an “anti-terror” initiative outraged ordinary Somalis and enabled the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) to galvanize support as it routed the warlords and claimed power. The American support for the warlords was an act of staggering shortsightedness. It neglected the complex issues in the country and, above all, signaled support for warlords who have harassed ordinary Somalis with extortion and corruption for too long. Somalis people have the right to live peacefully as in any citizen of this planet. Both US and Ethiopia have violated basic international law by inflicting its own hegemonic style of policing the world. Horn of Africa is in the process of transforming to another Iraq.
Yet, after the ICU toppled the warlords and grew from strength to strength, the Americans turned to the Ethiopian military to sort out the mess they had created. Predictably, the Ethiopian military campaign and the American air bombing have compounded rather than helped improve the situation. Ethiopia, which has twice fought with Somalia, is almost reviled by ordinary Somali citizens, not just for its aggressive military posture in the region, but also for its longstanding Christian identity.
The level of distrust of America is well documented and the manner in which US forces were chased out of Mogadishu in 1993 marked a watershed in recent American military history. Now, Somalia is occupied by a reviled neighbor backed by a superpower distrusted by the populace.
And, perhaps worst of all, this combined duet is in Somalia to back a Transitional Federal Government, which has almost no credibility with the population. The behavior of the TFG has left little doubt that its members have no ounce of statesmanship or common sense. Their utter refusal to reach out to various actors on the Somali scene is baffling. On the one hand, it is the TFG’s position that they do not need to talk to the Islamists because they have been vanquished. On the other, the TFG demands that a peacekeeping force be deployed to Somalia.
This is the supreme irony of a government, which claims it has no rivals, but still asks the international community to send peacekeepers to its capital! Most Somalis practice a moderate strand of Islam. It is obvious that the latest interventions have turned the moderate into a target for those seeking to recruit people to radical causes.
Rather than seek a consultative solution, including establishing a Government of National Unity and providing funds for reconstruction, the US and its allies have opted for the path of the gun. The results of this approach, as Iraq has shown, are not too hard to divine.
It is not too hard to see the situation in Somalia degenerating to the same level as that in Iraq. Therefore, there is significant knowledge about restoration of state in post-conflict in Africa and around the world, which are very successful and stable countries today like Uganda, Cambodia, Sirloin and Mozambique and also fail in some countries once and twice be happen Somalia.
Most of the blame in Somalia has to do with foreign countries direct involvements, excluding the participation of intellectual, civil organizations, religion organizations, business people, human right activist, various women organization, and mainly concentration of power in the hand s of warlords and hand pick individuals selected by warlords who can advance their interest.
The TFG is the outcome of two years of conference in Nairobi and its leaders elected with influence of forge money, but not by the choice of Somali people. The charter of TFG is premised with Ethiopian style of federal system which does not have an ounce of Somalis people input and Abdilllahi Yusf, who is well know for his criminal background, is forcefully elected.
In conclusion, first the USA and EU have to think strategically not to lose the important location of Somalia which might really fall in the hand of AL-QADIA. Secondly, the transitional government (TFG) has to accept sharing government with moderate Islamic until a genuine election will be held in the country. Thirdly, Somalia needs help in the reconstructions of the country and institutional building. Lastly, the international community should work to stop that Somali will not be a field of proxies war for the Horn of Africa dictators such as Meles Zenawi and Ethiopia has to remove its forces immediately.
Ahmed Osman resides in Jijiga