By David Steinman
News of Meles’ illness highlights the general unreadiness of the opposition to assume power upon his departure.
Presently, the most likely scenario that would unfold upon Meles’ death or resignation would be his replacement by a Tigrayan EPRDF successor, with the military enforcing this unpopular choice. When this happens, tragically, due to its disorganization, the opposition will be unable to do more than weakly protest. The situation grows worse by the day as more people, especially the youth and potential military defectors, drift away, disappointed and alienated, from the older opposition groups.
This state of affairs is because no one– whether it’s the EPRDF, the military, the international community or even Ethiopia’s people themselves, takes seriously a divided opposition. But a united opposition will create a coalition sufficiently large and broad as to create an undeniable alternative to EPRDF rule.
There is no shortage of well-known historic examples, and even simple fables, reflecting the truth of the power of unity. Yet, despite these unassailable facts, the opposition has failed to unite. Opposition leadership may cite various reasons for this, but the imperative is so great that no excuse can be sufficient and the opposition leadership collectively bears responsibility for this grave strategic error. Now, more than ever, it faces a stark choice: unify now, urgently, or allow itself, once again, to be passed over and miss this historic opportunity.
There are real policy differences among the various opposition groups. But the opposition is already united on one, overarching goal– the end of undemocratic EPRDF rule and its replacement with genuine democracy. It can achieve this if its leaders meet on an emergency basis and, for the good of the nation, subordinate all other differences to form a unified action front under a coordinated command for the purpose of this single objective. Once the dictatorship is gone, they can submit their differences to a democratic process.
Unification will require agreeing on a common leadership. The existing leaders, whether they are currently talking to each other or not, can collectively succeed if they all get into the same room immediately and not leave until this is resolved.
If they cannot agree on common leadership, they can, alternatively, elect one or more neutral figures to lead. This can be a non-political person, such as a respected academic, businessman, journalist, religious leaders, NGO administrator, royalty, athlete, technocrat or some combination. Almost anybody is better than nobody.
If the opposition leaders are unwilling to do this quickly, Ethiopia’s long-suffering people will benefit by demanding they do so. The Diaspora can guide the way, if necessary, by uniting its various factions here in a similar manner and conditioning further support on the in-country leadership doing the same.
A rare chance for the opposition to move into the coming political vacuum is emerging, but the opposition so far shows every sign of blowing it by failing to unify. Opposition leaders will be foolish to continue on this track and, if they do, they’ll have no one to blame but themselves.
When overthrowing a dictatorship, opposition unification must come above all else. Now is Ethiopia’s time to do it.
The author, an American, was involved with anti-Mengistu activity in the 1980’s, advocated for Ethiopia’s opposition to the US Congress starting in 1992, was an adviser to AAPO and CUD, published the first major media expose of Meles Zenawi’s human rights abuses and was a senior strategic consultant to Kinijit during the 2004-2005 civil disobedience and election campaign.
14 thoughts on “Ethiopian opposition must unite to be an alternative to EPRDF rule”
How come, every-time non-Ethiopian writes about the Ethiopian political situation they put it in very simple and clear way what is the current situation. But non of our seasoned elites even discuss some basic facts on ground when they write their VERY LONG opinion letters in so many Ethiopian blogs. The author put it very clear and simple what is needed now. Be united, elect simple, young, smart, neutral (preferably woman) and very tolerant leader. Put all old people from opposition parties as board members, or advisers (we will never trust them after Kinjit). They spoiled to use Birtukan Mideksa. All Editors in Ethiopian blogs should help promote this. This is a time, use it or lose it.
Also stop the crap. It is obvious that the matter with the government and ENTC is becoming a conflict between Amhara and TPLF. ENTC should mature up and stop all failed strategies to stablish good opposition movement.
Thank you Elias for allowing critical thoughts.
Sir,
I always respected your love for our people but I can tell you not to expect much from so-called opposition. They are a bunch of sore losers who have no agreement among themselves. They all have their own agenda waiting for the right moment to go back their and crown themselves emperors. They are just a collection of oafs. But one the other hand, we are disciplined and well organized and with a track record of democratic governance. Can you tell me when is the last time a victorious liberation army asked others including members of the government it overthrew to come and share power? Where? These so-called opposition groups are biting our hands that fed them. They are not worth politicians let alone fit to lead.
Waka replies:
July 19th, 2012 at 7:52 AM
What a hell are you talking about dude? Woyannes 21 years is the darkest days and years that took the nation at least 50 years back
adding what would have been if it was an Eth govt after the military
with about 40 billion support from the so called donors to be part of
the woyanne jungle like system ,woyannes dark seems to be over or done 21 years of jungle justice,21 years of looting, 21 years of lies even in your leaders last days,and 21 years of killing and crime that could be over 2 million if not more,Woyanne along with its gravely ill chief are most probably good for dedebit but not for this proud nation ,Having said that if your woyanawi memory serves 2005 election
is not that far that with in 6 months organaized kinijit that has shown the illitracy of the woyanne gang except emotion with no scientific arguement and your masters fear of confronting those lions in front of Ethiopian peoples so your laughable gang can never be seen as govt rather shifta is highly deserved name and the shifta leader wont see Ethiopia again except thousands books of history will come out for the generations to come as the darkest days of Ethiopia and your chief as a leader.
Anonymous replies:
July 19th, 2012 at 6:38 PM
Tekle,
You got to be the worst village idiot who doesn’t know the difference between a good leader and a professional criminal. God for bid, if I were you, I wouldn’t support a dictator like Meles that is socked with the blood of millions of Ethiopians, even if he were my father. Thank God for that. I don’t think you believe in God, if you do, you wouldn’t be supporting a horrendous criminal that is responsible for looting the country, for torturing and killing hundreds of thousands Ethiopians from north in your own backyard Tigrea and south of Ethiopia. And the same man that has given a billion dollar Ethiopia’s money and every square meter of Ethiopia’s seaport to his evil twin cousin Esayas which left Ethiopia land locked. A brutal tyrant who evicted Ethiopians and left them in the cold to sell their property to Arabs.
Try to think a little why you support a world known pathological liar, looter and a mass murderer. If you do not change your ways, may the loving God teach you a lesson and may you, your family and your cockroach evil master Meles be haunted by the souls of millions of Ethiopians slaughtered at the hands of TPLF.
The dark and destructive era of the delusional and narcissist Mellesse is already over. The very immediate challenge for all Ethiopians from Tigray to Borena and from Ogaden to Gambella is to seize this very timely and amazing opportunity to liberate our people and country from the yoke of the remnants of Woyane/ TPLF terrorists and EPRDF slaves.
Today, Woyane/TPLF terrorists and their EPRDF slaves are like a dead body without life. The head of Woyane/TPLF and EPRDF slaves is severed and its body has been rendered lifeless. This is the best possible moment to destroy and bury Woyane/TPLF and its EPRDF slaves, the very presence of racism, hatred, violence, ethnic cleansing, genocide, torture, kidnapping, and murder. This is the greatest opportunity to do away with Woyane/TPLF and its EPRDF slaves, the very personification of evil, deceptions, delusions, narcissism, darkness, and unparalleled violence. Today, we need to fight and destroy our enemy – Woyane/TPLF terrorists and their EPRDF slaves, who created and perpetuated racism, hatred, violence, ethnic cleansing, genocide, torture, kidnapping, murder, and terror on all of us.
Today is the day that we, as Ethiopians, have to come together, understand our unbreakable destiny, know things that may separate us are by far fewer than what unites us, and plan, coordinate, and execute programs and actions to find solutions for our common problems, discuss and understand the values and wisdoms in our languages, cultures, and histories, and communicate and nurture each other. Let us bring a new day of freedom, liberty, and a new Ethiopia where the rules of laws, democratic governance, and citizens’ free will rules supreme. A new country, where all people irrespective of their languages, ethnicities, regions, and religions are treated equal, respected, and protected from any/all types of authorities. Today is the day that we create a country where governments, parties, and officials are accountable to the letter of the laws and the people of the land.
The dark days of Mellesse, Woyane/TPLF, and EPRDF slaves will be our sad and shameful past. As it was with the days of Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, Edi Amin, and Kaddafi so does the days of Mellesse, Woyane/TPLF, and EPRDF slaves. It will go all down to the waste bin of history as the worst days of our lives. Gone will be the dark crude days of ethnic divisions, conflicts, ethnic cleansings, state sponsored terror, violence, instability, turmoil, repressions, human right abuses, genocides, crimes against humanity, secession, support of secessionists, selling national interests, treasons, treacheries, kidnapping, tortures, terrors, and murders of citizens and democratic leaders.
As we saw last year with the people of Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, and now Syria citizens fought against injustice, tyranny, state sponsored terror, imprisonment, kidnapping, and torture and won their unalienable rights and freedom. So will be Ethiopians. The Ethiopian people will fight, destroy, and win their freedom from Woyane/TPLF and EPRDF slaves and will create a new country where freedom, liberty, the rules of laws, democratic governance, and citizens’ free will rules above and over parties, officials, and governments. Yes, Ethiopians will create a country where governments, parties, and officials are accountable to the letter of the laws and the people of the land. Ethiopia will never be ruled by fake constitution, fake laws, fake government, and fake parties. Yes, Ethiopians will never be ruled by fake, murderers, treasonous, terrorists, and criminal officials.
I do agree with opposition, despite the fact that the term opposition is still a fear factor, in a thriving freedom. But, it never took me two minutes when I saw “Almost”, mentioned by a doctor, concerning Zenawi, in ER News, to still assess the transition philosophy and thing at most[atmost]. That guy is deluded, and writer/translator to RD elite. May be good, may be no.
In my view, certain things do require transition. For example, the rights of the Oromo people to write Amharic in Latin, must be given a 3000 years transition period, so mandate can be given to the right merit. In other words, they would not be granted that right, for 3000 years, to keep the integrity of the generation. The right of writing Oromiffa in Ethiopic, has to be given such terms of transition too. It is generation. Writing Oromo in both, is a plus. At most. That is how I view it. The almost thing concerning Zenawi health, was fishy, and unfortunately that writer is McDonnell and Cuccinelli’s right hand, because perpetration has no boundary. I keep my mouth shut. “Mr. Almost”, we are at most., but trading cross cultural misunderstanding., n’ things by tort and without merit, killed the drought. Free equity, no penny spent, they learned at the expense of COO, and scrutinized citizens, as cadavers.
Bless you David,
The only true pro Ethiopia Western. He understands that peaceful and stable Ethiopia means not dividing Ethiopia for resource greed but by unity.
The CIA are already negotiating in secret to prop up another fascist from the TPLF politbureau which they see as a loyal serevant to do their bidding. The opposition will remain opposition for ever unless they sort themeslves out quickly.
May God give them (opposition politicians) the foresight they haven’t had until now. May he give them the wisdom the understand that they are hurting themselves, nobody else but themselves, by not uniting. May he give opposition party supporters the same foresight and wisdom, so that they do not rally behind divisive figures, but instead only support unity for democracy.
Here is one possiblity. Azeb Mesfin could be the next prime minister. She may have the right to finish her husband right. The end of weyane is not yet over. The oppostion needs to get their own acts together.
What a brilliant piece! Let us unite. An emergency conference should be held in USA or Europe to agree on a strategy for replacing EPRDF and for getting an appropriate recognition and support by the international community especially the US government.
We should also commence immediately the process of nominating a suitable interim leader for the transitional government. I nominate Abebe Gelaw an Ethiopian of the required courage, commitment to the fundamental values of democracy and respect for human rights, and the personality as well as inteligence that such a challenge demands.
mr.Tekle commented,the opposition groups are “oafs”, let me tell you Tekle going to dedebit for the purpose of establishing apartheid among our people dos’t make weyane a hero,this is the wright time to change your kebele I.D into your birth place instead of ethnicity which was given by your mentors [Weyane].
I thought it was Herman Cohen himself! God help us …
Unite ? Is it for the sake of grabbing a power ?
OR for the sake of common ‘enemy’ ? Unity and opposition does not
go together. It is typical habesha character. oops sorry…but it is true.