By Messay Kebede
What I have grown to dislike is the reading of articles predicting the {www:imminent} collapse of Meles and his regime. Often written by people who sound serious, the articles affirm, with a nauseating regularity, that the regime is on its last legs without, however, giving any evidence supporting their prediction, except the state of generalized dissatisfaction of the Ethiopian society. Recently, the tendency to predict has reached a new high owning to the expected domino effect of the Arab Spring, as though some similarities were enough to cause a {www:momentous} event as the overthrow of a political system.
While I understand that such predictions express impatience at the increasingly repressive nature of the regime and its arrogant treatment of the opposition, unfortunately, they also reveal an irresponsible and reckless optimism. Does it require anything more than plain common sense to understand that talks about an imminent collapse do no more than demobilize people? Moreover, underestimation of what people are up against is likely to suppress the resources that they need in order to prevail. If well-intentioned people keep telling that the regime is tottering, what else is one to do but wait safely for the announced event to happen? That is why I sometimes wonder whether the predictors are not hidden agents of the regime: indeed, what better means to demobilize a people than to feed it with illusions?
That there is a general dissatisfaction in Ethiopia is a fact. That this dissatisfaction can only intensify as the regime remains deaf to calls for reasonable and mutually beneficial reforms is another given. Even so, those who display a misplaced optimism should understand that generalized dissatisfaction is a necessary condition of popular uprising but not a sufficient one. As shown by many countries around the world, repressive regimes can last for decades despite generalized discontent. To take a very recent example, it took more than forty years for Libyans to get rid of Gadhafi, and they did so, not by wishful thinking, but by an armed uprising. What is more, the necessity of generalized discontent does not entail the predictability of a prompt popular uprising. A largely accepted {www:axiom} among theoreticians of revolution is that “revolutions are not made; they happen.” Accordingly, not only wishing for revolution does not make it happen, but also even a call for revolt by an organized party often remains ineffective. In other words, revolution is a complex and objective phenomenon and, as such, not obtainable at will.
From the nature of popular insurrection emerges what needs to be done. Stop predicting or announcing the fall of Meles and his regime; instead, start working for its occurrence. Essentially, this means two things: getting ready for a long and arduous fight and doing everything necessary to bring down the regime. The latter will fall only if, beyond being dissatisfied, people and leaders incessantly work toward such a result by using all available overt and hidden means. When people engage in this kind of fight, the first thing that they expel from their thinking is the goal of a quick victory and, subsequently, the possibility that anything could happen without great sacrifices and hardships. All to the better if, in the process, a quick result is obtained, but that must never be a target.
It is my belief that if the regime could detect in the present dissatisfaction, not the wishful expectation of an impending collapse, but the {www:gestation} of a stubborn will to fight by all means, it would certainly entertain the idea of an alternative policy. What encourages the regime to pursue the road of totalitarianism is the conviction that its opponents are not serious, a conviction that the recurring divisions of the opposition further fortify. Unless we adapt the level of our struggle to the political challenge, our miscalculations, unwarranted expectations, and underestimations give life to the regime. Worse yet, in not adjusting our fight to the level of the challenge that we face, we unintentionally suppress the resources that are dormant in the society.
Here I hasten to add that there is no need for some readers to pinpoint contradiction. I am referring to a recent article in which I advocated the path of power sharing as the best way to resolve Ethiopia’s political deadlock. Among the many reactions triggered by the article, the criticism that Meles is incapable of working with the opposition, pertinent as it was, overlooked the evident component that Meles will come to the negotiation table only if the opposition shows some strength. And how else is strength obtained but by how determined the opposition is, which determination is itself a product of its correct assessment of the challenge it faces? Far from weakening the struggle against the regime, as some readers suggested, the article was actually a call for a renewed effort.
More importantly, as implied in the title, the article dealt with “Meles’s dilemma” by arguing that nothing of what he projects to do can become real unless he opens the political playing field. Put otherwise, the article reflected on the self-contradictoriness of his project to bring about a developmental state without seriously changing the existing political system. The article also noted that the ball is in Meles’s court so that his ambition to become a “great leader” awaits the glorious gesture of initiating a grand coalition. For instance, nothing is more pathetic than to see Meles, the leader of one of the poorest countries in the world, participating in the G20 meetings when it is so obvious that his reluctance to reform blocks Ethiopia’s development.
Obviously, a reflection on Meles’s dilemma does not intend to demobilize the opposition; it simply offers an opportunity for Meles to get the best deal he can, both in securing his position and realizing his personal ambition, before the tumults of revolution reach him. Above all, the formation of a grand coalition is also the best deal for Ethiopia, since it gives all Ethiopians the opportunity to learn and practice the democratic culture and forge the institutions that sustain it. What Meles must understand is that the fear of reform should be tempered by the knowledge that reforms work when they are timely. In the meantime, however, what the opposition must do is to upgrade its struggle with new determination and better means.
(Prof. Messay Kebede can be reached at [email protected])
8 thoughts on “Stop predicting and start working for the fall of the Meles regime”
Dr. Messay Kebede,
Realistic assessment. Truly speaking, Professor Mesfin was expressing on the same line years back but unpopular in the opposition circle with the assumption that such hint is considered surrendering to the incumbent and protection or glossing of the excesses of the regime.
It is the duty of all concerned Ethiopians in both aisles to work deliberately without giving in to hogwash of their base and focus on the remedy for the dire situation we are in.
Be mindful to include or get engaged all concerned Ethiopians from all the corners of the country, otherwise it will end up like Kinijit & EPRDF labelled as dominated by one ethnic group.
In the process ethnic issues, religions, sovereignty, regional rights, poverty, acceptable level of foreign investment with term limit, role of diaspora, property rights etc…….. can be discussed and all heard to reach general agreement and understanding.
We eritrean can’t wait until weyane tplf falls. We will finish them for good. 6ft under.
ከተማሪው እንቅስቃሴ ጀምሮ እንደነ ኢሕአፓ , መኢሶን , ወያኔ , ኢሕአድግ , ኦነግ የመሳሰሉት , ዳግማዊ ዐጤ ምኒልክንና ነፍጠኛ ወታደሮቻቸውን , ደቡብ ኢትዮጵያን በሚመለክት , ተስፋፊ ቅኝ ገዢ , የሰው አገር ወራሪ እያሉ ሲጠሩ ከርመው ይኼው አሁን አንቀሥ 39 የመገንጠል መብት ላይ ደርሰናል . ምኒልክ ደሞ ጥንታዊ ግዛቴን ነው ያስመለስኩት ብለው ነግረውናል .
ምኒልክ ተነኩ ማለት ቤት ተነካ ማለት ሰለሆነ ይረብሸኛል . ታዲያ በዚሁ ምክንያት ሐቁን ፍለጋ ተሰማርቼ ከገለልተኛ የዓይን ምሥክሮች ያጠናቀርኩትን ዘገባ ለእያንዳንዱ ኢትዮጵያዊ አቀርባለው . መረጃውን ያገኘሁባቸውን መጣሕፍታት ቅንፍ ውስጥ ይመልከቱ .
ከኦሮሞ ልጀምር –
1. እነዚህ ጋሎች ከአቢሲኒያ ችግሮች አንዱ ናችው . አገሪትዋን በ 16ኛው ክ /ዘመን ከየት እንደመጡ ሳይታውቅ በጥሰው ገብተው ቦታወችን በሚገባ ተቆጣጥረው በከፍተኛ ሁኔታ የዘውዱን አገር እናወጡት . በተለይ የንጉሡ እናት ሆን ብላ ልጅዋን ንጉሡን በ 18ኛው ክ /ዘመን ለጋላ ከዳረችው ጀምሮ የጋላ መላ ብልሹ በነበረው ፖለቲካ ሥርዐት ውስጥ ገብቶ ሁኔታዎች እንዲባባሱ አደረገ .
ጋላ የሚባለው ቃል ጋልኛ ሲሆን ትርጉሙም “ወራሪ ‘ ማለት ነው ይባላል . እስላሞች ደሞ ሌላ ትርጉም ይሰጡታል . ትርጉሙ “እምቢ አለ ” በዐረብኛ ነው (“ጋ ላ “).
መሐመድ ለጋሎች አለቃ ሰው ልኮ እስልምናን ተቀበል ቢለው , አለቃው እምቢ ቢለው “ካሁን በኅዋላ የገብረኤልን ጥሪ አልቀበል ስላለ ዘርማ ዘሩ “ጋ ላ ” መጠሪያው ይሁን ብሎ ተናገረ ይላሉ እስላሞቹ .
እነዚህ ጋሎችን ከሙሮች ጋር ማዛመድ ትልቅ ስህተት ነው . ሙሉ ለሙሉ የተለያዩ ዘሮች ናቸው .
(Views in Central Abyssinia, Sophie F. F. Veitch, 1868).
2. ጋሎች እንደ ማንኛውም ራሱን የቻለ ኩሩ ሕዝብ ሲሆኑ ራሳቸውን “ኦርማ ” ብለው ይጠራሉ . ግለሰቦቻቸውን “ኢልም ኦርማ ” ብለው ይጠሩታል (ከዐረብኛው “ኢብን ኤል ናስ ” ጋር ይዛመድ ይሆን ?) ቅዋንቅዋቸዎን ደግሞ “አፋን ኦርማ ” ብለው ይጠሩታል . (Philological Society (Great Britain)., Philological Society (Great Britain), Louis Loewe 1846)
ኦርማ የሚለውን ቃል ሳጣራ ደቡብ ምሥራቅ ኬንያ ጣና ወንዝ አካባቢ የሚገኝ ጎሣ አገኘው . የኦሮሞ መነሻው መሆን አለበት ( አባ ጦቢያ ).
3. ጋሎች ከጊኒዬ መጥተው የሚቀጥሉትን የአቢሲኒያ ግዛቶች ይወራሉ , ያስገብራሉ .
ግድማ , አንጎታ , ዳውራ , ፈጣገር , ወይድ , ኢፋር , ጉራጌ , ጋንዝ , ኮንት , ዳሞታ , ዋልቃ , ቢዛማ , ሸዋ እና ባሊ
(Ancient and Modern History and Geography, Jean B. D’ Audiffret, 1694).
እነዚህ ከላይ የተጠቀሱትን ሥፍራዎች ጥንታዊ ካርታ ላይ ፈልገው (ኢንተርኔት ) ያግኙና ይሁኑ ካርታ ላይ ያስቀምጡ .
ስለ ኦጋዴን ደሞ እናውራ
ኦጋዴን ብዙም ሰው ብዙም ትላልቅ ከተማዎች የሌሉባት ስትሆን በ 16ኛው ክ /ዘመን ነዎሪ የነበሩትን ጋሎች የገፈተሩ ከብት አርቢር ዘላን ሶማሊኛ ተናጋሮዎች ይኖሩባታል .(Encyclopedia Britannica).
ስለ አምሐራ (አማራ ) እናውጋ
አንጡራው አምሐራ በአምሐራ ስም የሚጠራው ተራራውማና ደቡብ ምሥራቅ የሚገኘው ክ /ሀገር ነው .
እዚህ ግዛት መሐል ጥንታዊው የዘውዱ ዋና ከተማና የአቢሲኒያ የሥልጣኔ ማእከል የነበረችው ተጉለት ትገኛለች . በአሁኑ ስዓት አረመኔ በሆኑትር ድፍን ደቡብ ሐበሻን በወረሩት በአረሜነዎቹ በጋሎች ሥር ትገኛለች . (Researches into the physical history of mankind, Volume 2, James Cowles Prichard, 1837).
አሁን ደግሞ ቴዎድሮስ የኢትዮጵያውን ዘማቻ ሊጀምር ሲል ለውዳጁ ለፕላውዴን የተናገረውን እናዳምጥ
በመጀመሪያ የክርስቲያኑን መሬት የነጠቁትን , ቤት ክርስቲያንን ያወደሙትን , ነባር ነዋሪውን በግድ ያሰለሙትን ጋሎች አንክቼ እጥላለሁኝ . ለጥቆ , እስላም ወይ ይጠመቃል , ወይ አገር ለቆ ይወጣል (Travels in Abyssinia and the Galla Country. An account of a mission to Ras Ali in 1848, from the Mss of the late Waltee Chichele Plowden, her Britannic consul in Abyssinia, edited by his brother Teevoe Chichele Plowden. London, Longmans, Geen, and Co. 1868).
ቴዎድሮስና ምኒልክ ቱርክና ጋላ እየተፈራረቁ በጉልበት የነጠቅዋቸውን መሬት ባለው ሁሉ ተጠቅመው ቢያስመልሱ እነ ወያኔ , እነ ኢሕአድግ , እነ ኦነግ , እነ ኢሕአፓና መኢሶን በውሽት አንዴ ነፍጠኛ አንዴ ውራሪ እያሉ ስማቸውን አጥፍተው አጥፍተው ይኄው አሁን አንቀስ 39 ላይ ደርሰናል .
ሌላው ውሸት ጋላ የሚባለው ቃል የራሱው የጋላው ሲሆን አማራ ለሰው መናቂያ ያወጣው ነው ተብሎ ደርግ በሕግ መሻሩ ነው .
ስለዚህ ይሄንን ያነበብክ ሁሉ የቴዎድሮስ ደቀ መዝሙር የምኒልክ የደቡብ ዝመቻ ልክ ነውና አንገትህን ቀና አድርገህ አንቀስ 39ን በመጀመሪያ በሕጋዊ መንገድ ሊሠረዝ የሚችልበትን ካልሆነም አንጡራ ንብረትህን የምትጠብቅበትን አማራ ጋላ ሳትል አንድነት ፍጠር .
ሌላ ምንም ጉዳይ የለም ይሄንን ጀምረህ ሳታገባድድ .
እኔ ነኝናናናናናናናናና !
አባ ጦቢያ
By:- Hanna Kebede switherland 28, October 2011
When there is unity among the people, everything is possible
The pursuit of social, economic and political equality is much more easily attainable when there is unity among the people. The individual finds greater opportunity in a society that enjoys unity.
All Ethiopians to strive for a special kind of unity which I call both “humunity” and “younity” (to coin new terms). “Huminity” is unity based not on ethnicity or nationality but on the core universal values of human dignity. It is unity that is powered by a moral commitment to respect and uphold human rights, an allegiance to the rule of law, a belief in the consent of the people as the only legitimate basis of power, and strict adherence to principles of constitutional governance, accountability and transparency. If we could develop wide and deep consensus on these values, we would have achieved unity of thought, purpose and consciousness. If we put these values into action by defending the rights of victims of human rights abuses, working for improvements in the observance of human rights conventions, organizing, teaching and preparing the youth for a democratic society, exposing corruption and abuse of power, strengthening our interpersonal relations across ethnic, religious and class lines, we will have achieved unity in action and deeds. Is it not true that the things that divide us.
Tyrants divide the people by magnifying the smallest of differences. Often, the people fall prey to the schemes of tyrants and sing their songs of discord and division. But in my conception of “huminity”, it is possible to have diversity of opinion, views and approaches because I believe “Every difference of opinion is not a difference of principle.” If we embrace and practice the universal principles of human rights, we will realize that it is not about our ethnicity, nationality, language, religion, region or anything else, but what we can do collectively and individually to remove the yoke of oppression and tyranny and institute democracy and the rule of law.
My conception of “younity” is a simple idea about you and I together standing up to tyranny and oppression. It is based on the notion that each one of us is a link in a long chain of both oppression and freedom. I believe we all have an individual civic and moral duty to strengthen the links and bonds of unity in the Ethiopian people by embracing and practicing the core values of human dignity and rights. Political leaders must adopt a new and more powerful language of “huminity” to bring the people of divergent views together. Religious leaders must speak of “huminity” in the language of divinity. They should preach and pray for unity. Civic leaders must speak up and advocate for “huminity”. Academics must teach the ways of “huminity”to the youth; and the youth must teach the older generation of the necessity of “huminity” for a new and enlightened Ethiopian community. Most importantly, ordinary people in the street must speak in the language of our common humanity to achieve ultimate unity.
Through unity we can go beyond the limits of humanity to the boundless realm of divinity.
It is very realistic assessemnt Dr.Messay Kebede. A really nice article!
As for the ‘Eritrea’, you didn’t read what the Doctor is saying. You are predicting as opposed to what writer is trying to explain.
This is once again the grave misreading of Meles Zenawi and his TPLF. The points and suggestions made by professor Mesay are only relevant to a dictator or political forces accepting and idenitfying him self or themselves as Ethiopians. Meles Zenawi is an ethnical fascist who does not accept Ethiopia as his country and Ethiopians as his fellow citizens. He always idenitifies himself as the golden Tigrayan and has openly stated his pride in being from the golden ethnic group (Tigray). He is pro-active and has already worked out his plans in the event of losing his power in Ethiopia. He will invoke article 39 and creaate his own ethnic republic of Tigray or the land of the golden ethnic group or tribe. We should not expect the fascist and racist Meles Zenawi to compromise with, reform and accomodate political forces calling themselves Ethiopians. His fascist and racist politics are not amenable to genuine reform and pluralism. The professor should do some reading and library researching on fascism and its political doctrines. This will clear the cloud covering and confusion surrounding the fascist and racist politics of Meles Zenawi and create understanding of it. Most of the Ethiopian political analysts have failed to understand the underlying fascist politics of the ethnical fascist Meles Zenawi and his TPLF.
The butcher Meles goes to the G20 meeting not because he has some new ideas to bring to the meeting but to take orders from his white masters and get some corn in exchange that he uses as a weapon to suppress Amharas, Oromos, Gurages, Somalis, Kembatas, Gambellas, etc.
Haven’t you seen him standing behind his white masters with his hands behind his back. Son of a BANDA is always a Worada BANDA. He will sell his mother for a sac of corn.
We will prevail.
Professor Messay, thank you for this concise and timely analysis. Your analysis, as usual is thought provoking and practical. Yes, we Ethiopians have to think, strategize, plan, and execute a sustained and multi facetted struggle to remove the ever devouring cancer of our Country and people. We need a detailed understanding of the challenges we have. We have to communicate, mobilize, and organize ourselves. We need to understand our challenges as represented by various systems, entities, and persons including their resources, capabilities, functions, methods, characteristics, and behaviors. We have to know everything we need to know about our challenges. We have to chart out our options, strategies, and goals. We have to develop and acquire all the resources we need. We need to have effective programs and plans in place. Finally, we need to execute our programs and plans to meet our objectives.
All these have to be done in continuous, consistent, and effective manner. Yes, we need to do all these expeditiously without pausing until the final goals are accomplished. These can be accomplished in few months, a year, or in few years. But we have to have the resolve, tenacity, and the commitment needed. There is no goal, nor resolve, nor sacrifice as worthy as saving Ethiopia and Ethiopians from the Woyane/TPLF/Mellesse/EPRDF monsters.