By Yilma Bekele
What is referred to at the domino effect is “a chain reaction that occurs when a small change causes a similar change nearby, which then cause another similar change, and so on in a linear sequence.” We are witnessing that phenomenon right now.
Fear of the domino effect is what got the US involved in Vietnam in the ‘60’s. When The Vietminh under Ho Chi Minh took over North Vietnam and established the Democratic Republic of Vietnam the US was convinced the communists will over run South Vietnam then continue on to Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Thailand and so on. The war was to arrest the Communist juggernaut. Whether it failed or was a success is a matter of interpretation.
A recent example of the fear of the domino effect is the bailout of the Banking system here in the US and Western Europe. The US Treasury came up with the term ‘too big to fail.’ It was felt that allowing a major bank to go bankrupt would start a chain reaction that will threaten the capitalist system, as we know it. The taxpayer was compelled to prop up the banks with no interest loans and a guarantee by the Federal Reserve to do what is necessary to protect the integrity of the system.
This last week the domino effect came home to roost in every capital city where freedom and civil rights have been put in the back burner. Our beautiful and brave friends in Tunisia started the ball rolling in a spectacular fashion. May the almighty bless Tunisians and their ancestors. The elegant system they devised to topple a tyrant of over twenty years was awe inspiring in its simplicity and ease of application. It was a work of art. They are still fine tuning their copy righted manual “Seven Easy Steps to Get Rid of A Tyrant©”
An ordinary citizen named Mohamed Bouaziz set himself on fire because he decided it was not worth living in such an environment. I have no idea if he saw the bigger implication of his one-person defiance. For whatever reason he did it for, his public immolation set the domino effect in motion. Let us just say tyrants everywhere are rethinking their future prospects. No matter what brave face they present or pretend to do business as usual Tunisia has scared the pants out of them.
There was no fighting force in Tunisia. There was no opposition party that seized the leadership. Religion was not a factor. There were no glaring signs that things were simmering. But in less than thirty days the eruption of dis-content engulfed a whole nation. In a blink of an eye el macho, full of himself, the leader for life, tyrant and bully Ben Ali was stripped of his humanity.
It looks like Egypt is the next domino piece to fall. May be not. It really don’t matter, the foundation is showing cracks as big as Abbay gorge. Sooner or later it will crumble. As I write this, it is the third day of spontaneous protests and there seems to be no light at the end of the tunnel for Mubarak and company. His son who was considered the heir apparent left for London with his wife and family. Now Mrs. Mubarak is reported to be in London too. I assume the tyrant of thirty years will join them soon enough. I will also venture to state that dictator Mubarak and family will settle in the US for the rest of their life in exile. Welcome fellow refugees.
Since I am in this euphoric mood may I predict the fall of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and the demise of “The Leader”. For you not in the know, that is how they refer to Corporal Gaddafi of Libya to be followed by Saleh of Yemen. Even Lloyds of London will deny King Abdallah II and Colonel Gaddafi’s life insurance coverage.
With all this excitement twirling in North Africa and the Middle East it was strange to listen to Secretary of State Hillary Clintons advice to the Egyptian people. Reuters reported that “US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Tuesday urged all sides in Egypt to exercise restraint following street protests and said she believed the Egyptian government was stable and looking for ways to respond to its people’s aspirations.”
It sounds familiar to Ethiopians. In the aftermath of the 2005 elections the US and European Diplomats were urging Kinijit to show restraint. It is sort of strange advice after her forceful statement congratulating the Tunisian people. It would not be surprising if the Department of State condemns the abuse of power by former President Mubarak and his associates of course after his downfall. It is not only dictatorships that refuse to learn, super powers are short sighted too.
With all this drama around us, it is not asking a lot to see if we can learn a few lessons so we can make our transformation less painful. The last two times we tried this game of change we sort of stumbled and fell hard. Let us hope the third time it will be a charm.
We have a lot in common with both Tunisia and Egypt. All our leaders have abused their welcome by twenty years and over. The regimes are based on single party rule. Opposition is not tolerated. They speak the language of democracy and emerging economies. They trade heavily with the current currency of being anti terrorism. They are favored by both the IMF and the World Bank. The youth unemployment hovers 30% and more. No matter how much rosy picture the IMF and their propaganda machines paint, the reality is their economy has stagnated. It cannot support the aspirations of the people.
Compared to the two, Ethiopia is a little different. We are lot poorer. Ethiopia is still a peasant society. Communication like Internet, Television, and Radio are deliberately suppressed. Our leader understands knowledge is power. In Ethiopia there is a Communications Department that oversees what is being said and printed in the country.
In both Tunisia and Egypt what is being called ‘Social Media’ played a big role in the citizens ability to be informed and organize. Facebook and twitter are the new heroes. That is what we lack in Ethiopia. The Meles regime was aware of the power of information and suppressed the media. The 2005 general elections proved to Meles and company the danger of even a half free press.
But we are innovative people. We will always find a way out. We created ESAT. I know Voice of America and Deutche Welle are doing an excellent job of informing our people. But ESAT is different. ESAT is you and I. It is the result of our own labor and sweat. It is accountable to no one but us. ESAT is our Facebook and twitter. The TPLF regime knows that. They will spare no amount of expenses to shut ESAT down. They have done it once. They will try again. We will deny them that pleasure.
You know how we do that? We make ESAT strong. We make ESAT independent. We contribute to make ESAT to have the best capability to inform our people. It is easy. Go to ethsat.com and you can give using pay pal, bank transfer or just call them. It is not how much you give. That is not the issue. It is all about building from scratch and encouraging the best in us. There is no point feeling good about Tunisia and hoping for Egypt. We can help them by contributing our share of liberating our corner of the world. Go to ethsat.com and give your share. It could be ten dollars or a thousand but what matters is you gave. Are you up to the challenge?
5 thoughts on “The ‘domino effect’ in living color”
I have been in Addis recently. EAST is not acceble with the new satlite to the majority of the people due to change in the infrastructure. The majority has small dish (1.5) and it can’t access the new satlite. I think it better if ESAT look for other alternatives.
This is a domino effect but taking some of these countries to no where. If we take Egypt, there will be some spurious fix up to follow and that will be it. We have to remember that Egypt can not be just a throw away for anyone. The whole Europe, Asia (particularly China) and even the USA can not afford to lose a hold of such economically and politically very important real estate. Do not forget that there are strong radical religious groups that have been lurking underneath the political landscape waiting for the opportune time. Can you imagine the world if groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood take the ruling mantle in Egypt? They will bring in all their kin and kits such as ‘moderate’ elements of Al al-Qaeda to the big house and the country will descend into a slaughter house. It will be a dangerous predicament. As a man of faith myself, but I disdain any political grouping around religion.
Yilma Bekele,
I admire your effort to encourage Ethiopians to involve and contribute to the cause of their country.However,the most important contribution Ethiopians can have is their resolve and commitment not so much for ESAT but to do what they can in any way. The appeal for ESAT might sound promising, I think it is just a quick way out offered by those who are reluctant to assume resposblity.Many Diaspora politicians are unwilling to pay sacrifice to the cause of Ethiopia, and can not conceive other method than to prescribe one that has promising commercial advantage. SAT is just such a devise to involve Ethiopians for the benefit of the few interpruners.Fot this reason I am not in support of this form of black mail. Let us face the truth, where are our leaders when the Obama administration is allocating to the tyrant 05 billion dollars for the fiscal 2011 year? Are we so content with the state of affiars, we will not be troubled to make the ongoing torture in the country to the outside world? Is this what Ethiopians they expect from the Diaspora? I don’t think you any of us have simple answer to these questions.
Although I admire your effort to encourage and awaken many from their stupor differ with you prescribing ESAT as the only solution to the problem.
Please check the following article for relevance info.
http://addisvoice.com/2011/01/bread-to-the-hungry-land-to-the-tiller/
A nation that goes to war blindly, overthrows its government forcefully, destroys public properties indiscriminately, and purposely creates uncertainty for its citizens as a result of the “domino effect” is indeed a thoughtless nation.
In fear of the domino effect, as the author of the article points out, America went to war with Vietnam, and America lost the war, lost over 58,000 American soldiers, and returned home with over 200,000 American wounded men and women.
And if the Egyptians, the Yemenites, and the other Arab-Muslim nations are demonstrating for a regime change because of the domino effect from Tunisia, it is doubtful they will succeed, because for a revolution to accomplish its goal, it must be a heart-felt revolution like the Tunisian revolution which is far from the domino effect. The Tunisians did not copy their revolution from any other country; it is their own revolution; therefore, they have succeeded in toppling down their oppressive government. The Egyptian or the Yemenite revolution is, however, a copy-cat one: it is like the saying – monkey see, monkey do” revolution.
The author, nevertheless, has missed the main point when he said emphatically that religion was not a factor for the Tunisian revolution. In Tunisia, there are about 9 million people; out of these people, there are only 50,000 non Muslims, and the rest are pure Sunni Muslims, and Islam is the state religion in Tunisia. Hence, it is not hard to conclude what brought these Tunisian Muslims together to revolt against Ben Ali is their religion – Islam: almost all of them have one religion – Islam – and one language – the Arabic language; these two elements have been the unifying factors for the Tunisian great revolution that brought down Ben Ali. There was no any other major religion in Tunisia that opposes the Tunisian Muslim revolution; if there were one, Ben Ali could have resorted to that religion, and he could have saved his dictatorship for some extra years. Thus, the one language- and the one religion-factor helped the Tunisians to come together very easily and to overthrow their government within a few days.
In Ethiopia, for example, Meles Seitanawi (Zenawi) can stay in power, if he wants to, for many, many years, by playing the ethnicity, the language, and the religion card as far as there are many Ethiopians who belong to different ethnic groups, speak different languages and worship different gods. And that is why I always urge Ethiopians must have one religion, one language, and one Church that unifies them for good or bad, and that unifying factor is the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahido Church. Therefore, let us empower the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahido Church, so that each one of could be powerful through that powerful Church of ours.
The Tunisian domino effect will never affect the Meles regime in Ethiopia, because most Ethiopians do not like any revolution that has the nature of Islam: the Tunisian domino effect may work in the Arab-Muslim world but never in the Christian world. At this particular time when the Muslim-Arab dictators are trembling because of the Tunisian revolution domino effect, Meles Seitanawi (Zenawi) is relaxing and leaning to the 6o million Ethiopian Christians, undermining the 40 million Ethiopian Muslims, and sometimes regarding them as agents of the Tunisian Muslim revolution. This is indeed a bad time for the Ethiopian Muslims to complain or to demonstrate against the Meles regime. If they go out to the street and show their defiance to the Meles oppressive government, the Ethiopian Christians will accuse them as they (the Ethiopian Muslims) are going to convert the Ethiopian people to Islam. At least Meles will send that kind of message to the Ethiopian Christians. The tag of war between the Ethiopian Christians and the Ethiopian Muslims will help Meles Seitanawi to stay in power indefinitely.
To avoid this type of war and to bring a viable change in Ethiopia, all Ethiopians must acknowledge the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahido Church as the only state Church that takes care of all the Ethiopian people, not only on this earth but also in heaven. As far as there are two opposing religions in Ethiopia – Islam and Christianity – there will never be a revolution in Ethiopia since the two religious denominations do not trust each other; therefore, the Tunisian revolution domino effect has no impact in the minds of the Ethiopian Christians. They simply regard it as a Muslim revolution, and anything Muslim is unfit for the Ethiopian Christians in the Christian land of Ethiopia.
Ethiopia is the land of both Muslims and Christians. Amaras, Tigres, Oromos, Guarages, Benshanguls and all the ethnic groups make up the nation. Unfortunately, the Woyanes have successfully sowed discourse amongst the nationalities in order to prolong their hold on power. It is no secret that they were helped by the military, economic, diplomatic and other support by the so called international community to consolidate power and legitimize the regime in Ethiopia.
The same powers have sustained the regimes in Tunisia and Egypt. The only difference is that the Ethiopian military is composed of Tigris, as the government itself. The only viable option is counter this force by legitimate Ethiopian forces inclusive of all of Ethiopians regardless of ethnic or religious differences.
The woyanes may think they have the perfect plan to lord over Ethiopians for eternity. However, they made a grave mistake by underestimating the will of the people, and will surely ousted sooner than expected.